CLIMATE CHANGE

“LOOKING INTO AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE”

J N MUTEMI

Univ. of Nairobi

Linking Climate Science and Humanitarian Action In Kenya

Workshop on Climate Information for Humanitarian Activities

23-24th February 2010, IFRC, Nairobi, Kenya
You are skeptical about
the Climate Change,
aren’t you? But …
Climate does change…..Decreasing trend in Major global glaciers…

Lewis glacier, Mt Kenya

Mt Kilimanjaro glacier trends……. Current extend…
Yr1912 Yr2000
GHGs concentration has been
increasing
And GHGs cause an increasing
T
And climate models predict…
What Info: Global, Regional & local Can we
get from Climate Model Projections…

we can note modeling progress through the scientific skills employed

in the successive Assessments Reports…..
Down scaling is one way of generating regional and local scale
information that may be more sensible for humanitarian activities…
 Research Examples for Kenya….….
3.5 °C 2070-2100

2050-2060
2.8 °C

2030-2040

1.2 °C
2010-2020
Climatology
 Minimum Temperature(Deg. C)

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-60

Jan-62

Jan-64

Jan-66

Jan-68

Jan-70

Jan-72

Jan-74

Jan-76

Jan-78

Jan-80

Jan-82

Jan-84

Month/Year
Jan-86

Jan-88

Jan-90

Jan-92

Jan-94

Jan-96

Jan-98
Research examples from Kenya…Minimum temperatures

Jan-00

Jan-02

Jan-04
in Kenya may be suggesting climate change……
 KENYA Annual Cycle of Precipitation and ENSO only

200
Climatology
+VePhase
KENYA variability & Prd. important
Rain(mm)

100
-VePhase
Local forcing (IOZM) outweighs
external (PAC ENSO) in consistency
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

KENYA Annual Cycle of Precipitation and ENSOIOZM

11 12
with GCM studies, e.g.
Climatology Goddard & Graham (1999)…
200 +VePhase

…Data needs filtering to use those

Rain(mm)

-VePhase

100
with best data length and minimal
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
gaps.
…Refining of ATL SSTano. categories
KENYA Annual Cycle of Precipitation and IOZM only

Climatology This result expected to improve

200 +VePhase
substantially, but already,
Rain(mm)

-VePhase

100
predictability can be seen.
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ??: Does this result capture/
Months January to December
KENYA Annual Cycle of Precipitation and ATL only re-produce the major (or all) of the
200
Climatology
+VePhase
precipitation extremes for the
Rain(mm)

-VePhase
two-seasons MAM & OND over
100
various sectors of the country and with
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 what time leads, for real-time prediction
Months January to December