Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(Fall 2015)
Alexandre Poirier
1 Department
of Economics
University of Iowa
8/25/2015
I
I
But in the real world, correlation and causation are often very
difficult to separate.
I
I
I
0
0.8
F is:
I
I
I
1
0.9
2
0.96
3
0.99
4
1.0
0
0.8
1
0.9
2
0.96
3
0.99
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
4
1.0
1. f (y ) 0, for all y .
2. The probability that the uncertain quantity Y will fall in the
interval (a, b ) is equal to the area under f (y ) between a and
b:
P (a < Y < b ) =
Zb
f (y )dy .
f (y )dy = 1
0
1.1
0.9
3.3
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
0.2
1.2
0.1
0.8
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.7
0.3
0.8
0.2
0.9
3.3
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.1
P(0.8<y<1.6)
Zy
f (t )dt
dF (y )
= f (y )
dy
> y ) = 1 F (y )
and
< Y y2 ) = F (y2 ) F (y1 )
Mode: The mode is the value that occurs with the greatest
probability.
I
i =1
i =1
xi Pr(xi ) = xi f (xi )
E (X ) = 61 1 + 16 2 + 16 3 + 16 4 + 16 5 + 16 6 =
1
6 (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6) = 3.5
xf (x )dx
Example
f (x ) = 2x for 0 < x < 1 (and 0 otherwise)
Then
Z
E (X ) =
xf (x ) dx =
Z1
x (2x ) dx =
Z1
2x 2 dx = 32 x 3 |10 =
2
3
Question: whats F (x )?
F (x ) =
Z x
f (t ) dt =
Z x
0
F ( 23 ) =
F ( 12 )
4
9
<
1
2
Nope.
1
2
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.4
E (X ) =
xi f (xi )
or E (X ) =
i =1
xf (x )dx
E (g (X )) =
g (xi )f (xi )
or E (g (X )) =
i =1
E (X ) =
x 2 f (x )dx
g (x )f (x )dx
Var (X ) =
i =1
[x E (X )]2 f (x )dx.
x 2 f (x )dx
Pr(x )
x Pr(x )
(x )2 Pr(x )
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
3
1
2
2
3
5
6
1
6
2
3
3
2
8
3
25
6
E (X ) = 3.5
E (X 2 ) = 15 61
k=6
I
I
X = 1.71
[x E (X )] f (x )dx =
Z1
Z1
2 2
2xdx
3
1
2x 3 83 x 2 + 98 x dx =
1 4
2x
89 x 3 + 94 x 2
E (X 2 ) (E (X ))2
Z1
x 2 (2x ) dx ( 32 )2
Z1
0
2x 3 dx
4
9
1
2x
4 1
0
4
9
1
2
4
9
1
18
1
2
4
9
1
18