PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

马来西亚 技术分析
RHB Research
Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

每周技术观点 2010 年 3 月 8 日
MARKET DATELINE

原产品和外汇
原产品受看好，但美元的前景好坏参半…

主要原产品的图表表现：

轻质原油期货 Light Sweet Crude Oil futures （原

图 1∶轻质原油期货（周线图）
油）

♦ 尽管图表出现一根“十字线”（Doji），但美国轻质原油期
货却在上周恢复涨势，并一度创下 82.07 美元新高。然后，
才在周五以 81.50 美元报收。

♦ 这已确认了它之前闯破 78 美元阻力水平的突破走势。

♦ 在动力解读稍微转好的扶持下，它已准备就绪在近日重新试
叩 1 月的 83.95 美元高点。

♦ 若它成功去除这个高点，这将会触发更多涨势，以上挑 87
美元阻力水平。

♦ 乐观的是，我们预测它将会在中期内往上 87 美元至 100 美

元之间的阻力区前进。

原棕油期货 Crude Palm Oil futures （原棕油）

图 2∶原棕油期货（周线图）

♦ 即使它在前周划出一根黑烛，原棕油期货（CPO）却在上周
以一根白烛回弹。

♦ 在获得 10 周移动平均线（即 2,564 令吉）的助力下，原棕

油期货上周成功稳守在 2,500 令吉重大扶持水平以上。

♦ 从买盘动力恰时地恢复看来，原棕油期货已准备就绪在本周重
振其上升趋势。

♦ 若它有能力破除 1 月的 2,726 令吉高峰，那么它将会在近日

试探 2,760 令吉强大阻力水平和 2,800 令吉心理关卡。

♦ 一旦能取下这些障碍线，那么中期技术展望将会转俏。下一道
强大阻力区落在 3,000 令吉至 3,300 令吉之间的区域。

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（ IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES）

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特定外汇的图表解读：

图 3∶令吉兑美元（周线图） 令吉兑美元 Ringgit （令吉）/ US$（美元）

♦ 一如所料，令吉兑美元的汇率以一根巨大利淡黑烛往下转
低。

♦ 基于该货币进一步远离 3.40 重要关口，加上动力指标也转

弱，看来令吉兑美元将在本周进一步转强。

♦ 展望未来，该汇率将继续受到 3.40 令吉关卡和位于 35 周

移动平均线（即 3.43）的延伸性颈线所限制。

♦ 若假如动力延续，那么我们预计令吉兑美元将会在跟进买盘
动力下试叩 3.29 令吉关口。

♦ 有鉴于此，我们保持看好令吉的中期展望。

图 4∶日元兑美元（周线图） 日元兑美元 Japanese Yen （日元）/ US$（美元）

♦ 即使日元在前周强力回弹，但日元兑美元汇率却无法在上周
延续其跌势。

♦ 相反地，它形成一根白烛，反映出日元兑美元的近日力度已
出现逆转点。

♦ 白烛的形成也促使动力指标往上转高，从而加强它试叩下降
趋势阻力线（DRL）（即 91 美元）重大阻力的机率。

♦ 虽然如此，我们还是相信 DRL 将会扶持着日元，以防止它

兑美元进一步转弱。至于较强的水平则位于 60 周移动平均
线（即 93.25）。

♦ 若日元能够反弹，它将会迈向 87 前进，接下来则是 79.8。

图 5∶欧元兑美元（周线图） 欧元兑美元 Euro Dollar （欧元）/ US$（美元）

♦ 欧元兑美元的图表在上周五继续取得“十字线”（doji），
并在上周一连第 4 周延伸其不明朗的型态。

♦ 该货币收于 0.7337，稍微高于 0.73 关键水平，惟它却无

法划出一根确认性白烛。

♦ 这也解释为何 0.73 的重要强大扶持水平目前正制止欧元兑

美元进一步转弱。

♦ 假如 0.73 水平能够站稳，那么欧元将会反弹至 0.695 水

平，即 21 周移动平均线（即 0.696）。

♦ 相反地，假如它失去 0.73，它兑美元将会进一步趋低至
0.77 至 0.80 之间水平。

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 美元指数 US Dollar Index （DXY）
图 6∶美元指数（周线图）
♦ 位于 81.0 强大阻力一连 5 周限制了美元指数（DXY）的上
升趋势。

♦ 不 止 这 样 ， 图 表 也 一 再 形 成 另 一 根 “ 镊 顶 ” （ tweezer
top），显示本周看来将会回退。

♦ 随着随机指标（stochastic oscillators）从“超买”区下
滑，交投动力料将会在来日转弱，以加强目前的卖压。

♦ 一旦回退，这将会带领它试探 78 扶持点，即靠近 21 周移
动平均线（即 77.8）。

♦ 在上涨方面，只有如果它有能力破除 81 关口，那么它将会
扩大上升趋势至 85 阻力水平。

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
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Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:

Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

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