Climate Change Excerpt

international energy agency
agence internationale de lenergie
How the Energy Sector can Deliver

on a Climate Agreement in Copenhagen
Special early excerpt of
the World Energy Outlook 2009
for the Bangkok UNFCCC meeting
OECD/IEA, October 2009
IEA member countries:

Australia
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Austria
Belgium
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an autonomous body which was established in
November 1974 within the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD) to implement an international energy programme.
Canada
Czech Republic
It carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among twenty-eight

of the thirty OECD member countries. The basic aims of the IEA are:
Denmark
n To maintain and improve systems for coping with oil supply disruptions.
Finland
n To promote rational energy policies in a global context through co-operative

relations with non-member countries, industry and international organisations.
France
n To operate a permanent information system on international oil markets.
Germany
n To provide data on other aspects of international energy markets.

n To improve the worlds energy supply and demand structure by developing
alternative energy sources and increasing the efficiency of energy use.
Greece
Hungary
n To promote international collaboration on energy technology.

n To assist in the integration of environmental and energy
policies, including relating to climate change.
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea (Republic of)

Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
The European Commission
also participates in
the work of the IEA.
ORGANISATION FOR
ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
AND DEVELOPMENT
The OECD is a unique forum where the governments
of thirty democracies work together to address the
economic, social and environmental challenges of
globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of
efforts to understand and to help governments
respond to new developments and concerns,
such as corporate governance, the information
economy and the challenges of an ageing
population. The Organisation provides a setting
where governments can compare policy
experiences, seek answers to common
problems, identify good practice and
work to co-ordinate domestic and
international policies.
OECD/IEA, 2009
International Energy Agency (IEA)
9 rue de la Fdration, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France

Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions
that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are
available online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp
HOWTHEENERGYSECTOR
CANDELIVERONA
CLIMATEAGREEMENT
INCOPENHAGEN
Specialearlyexcerptofthe
WorldEnergyOutlook2009
fortheBangkokUNFCCCmeeting
INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY
HowtheenergysectorcandeliveronaclimateagreementinCopenhagen
Foreword
bytheExecutiveDirectoroftheIEA
The World Energy Outlook 2009 (WEO2009) delivers a simple, stark message: if the world Page|3
continuesonthebasisoftoday'senergypolicies,theclimatechangeimpactswillbesevere.Energy,
whichaccountsfortwothirdsoftoday'sgreenhousegasemissions,isattheheartoftheproblem
and so must form the core of the solution. We need urgently to set in motion an energy and
environmentalrevolution,totransformthewayweuseenergyandtodeliverasustainablefuture.
WEO2009mapsoutthistransformation,detailingtheroleoftheenergysectorinascenariothat
leadstothelongtermstabilisationoftheconcentrationofgreenhousegasesintheatmosphereat
450partspermillionofCO2equivalentour450Scenarioandsettingouttheinvestmentsand
financingneededtomakeithappen.
Thefinancialandeconomiccrisisofthepast18months,analysedindepthinWEO2009,hashada
considerable impact on the energy sector. CO2 emissions are expected to fall in 2009, which can
helpustoachievethis450trajectorybutonlyiftherightpoliciesareputinplacepromptly.The
successoftheUNFCCCprocessiscrucialtothis.
Thetaskisextremelychallenging,butitisachievable,andsuccessisnecessarytoavoidtheworst
consequences of climate change. And the cobenefits are numerous. The 450 Scenario requires
extrainvestmentbutmostofthisisinenergyefficiencymeasures,whichoffersubstantialenergy
costsavings,andinlowcarbonpowergeneration,whichmayhavehighupfrontcosts,buttypically
offerssubstantialcostsavingscomparedtothetechnologiesbeingreplaced.Theimprovedenergy
efficiency will help bring about more sustainable economic development, while lower energy
importsinthe450Scenariopromisemajorenergysecurityandeconomicbenefits.Andairquality
improvementsfromcurbingfossilfueluseareimportantbothfortheenvironmentandforhuman
health. Fossil fuels will still have a role to play but the 450 Scenario requires fossilenergy
consumptiontopeakbyaround2020andthendecline.
This special early excerpt of WEO2009 is a contribution from the energy sector to inform the
negotiations leading into Copenhagen. It summarises the results of a fullyupdated Reference
Scenario,detailingbysectorandbycountry/regionthetrendsinenergyuseandemissionsandthe
investmentsandfundingneededtomeetthe450Scenario.Itformspartofamuchmoredetailed
study,tobepublishedinNovemberinWEO2009,whichfocusesontheimpactofthefinancialcrisis
and recent policies on the energy sector, provides a comprehensive analysis of the results of the
Reference Scenario and 450 Scenario, and analyses the international financial flows and
mechanismsthatmightunderpinapost2012agreement.
IamparticularlygratefultoYvodeBoerandhisteamforhelpingustoputtogetherthisexcerptof
WEO2009. I believe and hope that it will play a useful role in delivering a strong agreement in
Copenhagen.
NobuoTanaka
ExecutiveDirector
InternationalEnergyAgency
OECD/IEA2009
Foreword
bytheExecutiveSecretaryoftheUNFCCC
IwouldliketoexpressmyappreciationtotheInternationalEnergyAgencyformakingavailablethis Page|5
publication during the critical, final stretch of the negotiations ahead of the landmark climate
change conference in Copenhagen this year. This is the first time that part of a World Energy
Outlook has been released in advance of the full report. World Energy Outlook 2009 is the first
comprehensiveanalysisthatincludestheimpactofthefinancialandeconomiccrisisontheenergy
sectorandtherelatedCO2emissions.Itrepresentsasignificantcontributionbytheenergysectorto
apositiveoutcomeinCopenhagen.
ThemessagesofWorldEnergyOutlook2009areclearandcompelling:
Continuingcurrentenergypolicieswouldhavecatastrophicconsequencesfortheclimate.
By reducing emissions, the financial and economic crisis has created a window of
opportunitytotransitiontheglobalenergysystemtoa450ppmtrajectory.
Thisisauniqueopportunitybutweneedtoactnow;delayincreasesthecostanddrastically
reduces the likelihood of stabilisation at 450ppm ever being achieved, let alone anything
belowthisconcentrationlevel.
Thetransitionischallengingandrequiresactioninallcountries,butitisdoable.
Thecostofmovingtheglobalenergysystemtoa450trajectoryismanageable.
Restructuringtheenergysystemalsoyieldseconomicdevelopment,energysecurity,human
healthandotherenvironmentalbenefits.
AnambitiousresultisneededinCopenhagentolaunchthistransitionandtoadvanceitthrougha
newlevelofinternationalcooperation.TheWEO2009ClimateChangeExcerptillustratesinahandy
and clear way the scale of the energyrelated emission reductions consistent with a 450ppm
trajectory, the measures that can achieve those reductions, the mitigation technologies required,
the policies that can drive those measures, and the associated investments needed. The analysis
also shows how financial resources for actions in developing countries can be provided through
tradablecreditsandfinancialtransfers.
Theglobaleconomydoesnotsuffermuchfromthecostsincurredundera450scenario.Countries
experiencing high rates of economic growth continue to do so. While the export revenues of oil
producingcountriesarelowerthanfortheReferenceScenario,theyarefourtimeshigherthanin
thepast.
I wish to thank Fatih Birol and his team for the extra effort they have made during a very busy
period to prepare this material in time for the UNFCCC Bangkok sessions. This continues their
effortssince2007tomakeWEOanalysesmoreusefulforclimatenegotiators.WEO2009analysesa
450scenario, including the investment and financing needed, just in time to be one of the
importantreferencesfortheCopenhagennegotiations.
These results should motivate us all to step up efforts to reach an agreement with the requisite
ambition. The cost of addressing climate change is manageable. The cost of not doing so is
unaffordable.Wecannotaffordtofail.
YvodeBoer
ExecutiveSecretary
UNFCCC
OECD/IEA2009
TableofContents
Background.........................................................................................................................................9
TheReferenceScenario......................................................................................................................9
The450Scenario..............................................................................................................................10
Thepolicyframeworkinthe450Scenario.......................................................................................10
Keyresultsofthe450Scenario........................................................................................................12
Whatisincludedintheprofiles.......................................................................................................13
Profiles:RegionalAnalysis................................................................................................................15
World........................................................................................................................................17
OECD+.......................................................................................................................................21
UnitedStates............................................................................................................................25
EuropeanUnion........................................................................................................................29
Japan.........................................................................................................................................33
OtherMajorEconomies............................................................................................................37
Russia........................................................................................................................................41
China.........................................................................................................................................45
OtherCountries........................................................................................................................49
India..........................................................................................................................................53
OECD/IEA2009
Page|7
Background
Past editions of the IEAs World Energy Outlook (WEO) have highlighted the unsustainability of
currentenergytrendsenvironmentally,economicallyandsociallyandtheurgentneedforaction
to bring about a wholesale global shift to lowcarbon technologies. The issue is particularly Page|9
pertinentthisyear,ascountriesaroundtheworldnegotiateanewglobaldealonactiontoaddress
climate change. Energy is at the heart of the problem accounting for about 65% of the worlds
greenhousegasemissionsandsomustbeattheheartofthesolution.
This years edition of WEO will include an indepth analysis of climate policies. The core of the
analysisisaclimatescenario,oneconsistentwithlimitingtheconcentrationofgreenhousegasesin
the atmosphere to 450 parts per million CO2equivalent. Key results of this analysis are being
publishedearlyinthisbooklettosupportthenegotiationofanewclimatechangeagreementunder
the UNFCCC. These results will be presented in early October during the negotiating session in
Bangkok,beforethefinalnegotiatingsessioninCopenhagenbetweenDecember7and18.Thefull
reportofthe2009editionofWEOwillbepublishedon10November2009.
Two scenarios have been modelled in detail for the purpose of this years WEO: a Reference
Scenario and a 450 Scenario. The Reference Scenario is a picture of how global energy markets
would evolve if governments make no changes to their existing policies. It is not a forecast. By
contrast,the450Scenarioanalysesmeasuresintheenergysectorwhichmightbetakeninorderto
fulfilacoordinatedglobalcommitmentultimatelytostabilisetheconcentrationofgreenhousegas
emissionsintheatmosphereat450ppmCO2equivalent.Theprojectionshavebeenderivedfrom
theIEAsWorldEnergyModel(WEM),whichmodels24geographicalregions.1Thisbookletprovides
themainstatisticalresultsoftheclimatescenario.Forcomparisonpurposes,someresultsfromthe
ReferenceScenariohavebeenincluded.
WEO2009 will provide a comprehensive review of global energy supply and demand, energy
investmentneedsandenergyrelated2CO2emissionsto2030and,besidesthefocusonclimate,in
depth analyses of natural gas supply and energy supply and demand in the ASEAN region. It
provides the first comprehensive analysis of the impact of the financial and economic crisis on
energyandCO2trends.InourReferenceScenariothisyear,globalemissionsin2020are1.9Gtor
5%lowerthanintheReferenceScenarioinWEO2008.Theimpactoftheeconomiccrisisandlower
growth account for three quarters of this improvement, while government stimulus spending to
promotelowcarboninvestmentsandothernewclimatepoliciesaccountfortheremainder.
TheReferenceScenario
TheReferenceScenariotakesaccountofgovernmentpoliciesandmeasuresenactedoradoptedby
mid2009,althoughmanyofthemhavenotyetbeenfullyimplemented.Thisincludesanumberof
policiestolimitgreenhousegasemissions,aswellasvariouspoliciestoenhanceenergyefficiency
and promote renewable energy. Policies under consideration and targets not backed up by
commensuratepolicymeasuresarenotincluded.TheReferenceScenarioalsoassumesthatenergy
subsidiesaregraduallyremovedinallcountrieswheretheycurrentlyexist.
Intheabsenceofnewinitiativestotackleclimatechange,risingglobalfossilfueluseinthisscenario
increasesenergyrelatedCO2emissionsfrom29Gtin2007toover40Gtin2030andcontributesto
1
2
CompletedocumentationofWEMcanbefoundat:www.worldenergyoutlook.org.
Thisreferstoemissionsfromfossilfuelcombustiononly.
OECD/IEA2009
thedeteriorationofambientairquality,withseriouspublichealthandenvironmentaleffects.The
riseinemissionsisduetoincreasedfossilfueluse,especiallyindevelopingcountries,whereper
capitaenergyconsumptionstillhasfartogotoapproachthatinOECDcountries.OECDemissions
are projected to dip slightly over the period, due to a slower increase in energy demand, large
improvementsinenergyefficiencyandtheincreaseduseofnuclearandrenewables.Theseeffects
Page|10 are,inlargepart,duetothepoliciesalreadyadoptedtomitigateclimatechangeandboostenergy
security. Our analysis indicates that the Reference Scenario when projected out to 2050 and
beyondandtakingintoaccountemissionsofallgreenhousegasesfromallsourceswouldresultin
aconcentrationofgreenhousegasesintheatmosphereofaround1000ppmoverthelongterm.
The450Scenario
The 450 Scenario analyses measures to force energyrelated CO2 emissions down to a trajectory
that,takingfullaccountofthetrendsandmitigationpotentialfornonCO2greenhousegasesand
CO2 emissions outside the energy sector, would be consistent with ultimately stabilising the
concentrationsofallgreenhousegasesintheatmosphereat450ppm.Thislevelofconcentrationis
expectedtogiverisetoaglobaltemperatureincreaseof2C.
Thelongtermgreenhousegasconcentrationlimitset450ppmCO2equivalentislessthanhalf
theconcentrationwhichoccursintheReferenceScenario.Thetrajectoryisanovershoottrajectory,
i.e.concentrationspeakat510ppmin2035,theystaysteadyforaround10yearsandthendecline
to450ppm.OuranalysisfocusesonenergyrelatedCO2emissionsto2030,whichpeakjustbefore
2020at30.9Gtanddeclinesteadilythereafter,reaching26.4Gtin2030.
The 450 Scenario also takes a close look at the period through to 2020 that is so crucial to the
climatenegotiationprocess.Withoutattemptingtoprescribeanidealoutcometothenegotiations,
itreflectsaplausiblesetofcommitmentsandpolicieswhichcouldemergearealisticcombination
of capandtrade, sectoral agreements and national policies tailored to each countrys
circumstances.Thepossiblenationalandinternationalimplicationsofsuchaglobalclimatedealfor
the energy mix, greenhousegas emissions, investment and costs are described, sector by sector
andregionbyregion.Theaimisnottopredictthecommitmentstowhichcountriesmaysignupat
Copenhagen or beyond, but rather to illustrate how emissions would evolve under a given set of
assumptionsconsistentwiththeoverallstabilisationgoal.
Thepolicyframeworkinthe450Scenario
The emission reductions in the 450 Scenario can be achieved only by taking advantage of the
mitigation potential in all regions. Thus, all countries are assumed to implement mitigation
measures,whilerespectingtheprincipleofcommonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilities.
Threeregionalgroupsareconsidered:
OECD+ countries OECD countries and countries that are members of the European
UnionbutnotoftheOECD.
OtherMajorEconomies(OME)Brazil,China,theMiddleEast3,Russia,andSouthAfrica,
thatisthelargestemittersoutsideOECD+(basedontheirtotalemissionsofenergyrelated
CO2in2007)withpercapitaGDPexpectedtoexceed$13000in2020.
TheregionMiddleEastincludesthefollowingcountries:Bahrain,Iran,Iraq,Israel,Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon,
Oman,Qatar,SaudiArabia,Syria,theUnitedArabEmiratesandYemen.
OECD/IEA2009
OtherCountries(OC)allothercountries.
Until2020OECD+countriesareassumedtohavenationalcommitmentsandtoimplementvarious
mitigation policies, including a capandtrade system for power generation and industry. Other
countries reduce their emissions through nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs), with
international financial and technical support (Figure1). All regions participate in sectoral Page|11
agreements for cement, iron and steel, passenger vehicles, aviation and shipping that establish
emissionsintensitytargets.After2020,OtherMajorEconomiesareassumedtobepartofthecap
andtradesysteminpowergenerationandindustry.
Figure1: Policyframeworkinthe450Scenario
2013-2020
OECD+
Power
generation
Cap and trade
Other Major
Economies
Other
Countries
National policies
and measures
National policies
and measures
Industry
International sectoral approaches
Transport
Buildings
National policies
and measures
International
aviation and
shipping
2021-2030
Power
generation
OECD+
Other Major
Economies
Other
Countries
Cap and trade
Cap and trade
National policies
and measures
Industry
Transport
Buildings
National policies
and measures
International
aviation and
shipping
National policies
and measures
OECD/IEA2009
Keyresultsofthe450Scenario
All countries achieve substantial levels of abatement relative to the Reference Scenario. OECD+
emissions decline steadily, from 13.1 Gt in 2007 to 7.7 Gt in 2030. Emissions in Other Major
Economiespeakat12.6Gtin2020andthendeclineto11.1Gtin2030,still14%above2007levels.
Page|12 EmissionsinOtherCountriesincreasesteadily.MostoftheemissionreductionsfromtheReference
Scenario are achieved through energy efficiency measures. Significant reductions also come from
changestothemixofpowergenerationtechnologies.
Asnotedabove,capandtradeisassumedtoapplytothepowerandindustrysectorsinOECD+as
of2013andtotheOtherMajorEconomiesasof2021.WeassumethatCO2istraded,initially,in
twoseparatemarkets:theOECD+andOtherMajorEconomies.Tocontainemissionsatthelevels
required,weestimatethattheCO2pricereaches$50pertonneinOECD+in2020;itrisesto$110in
OECD+ and $65 per tonne in the Other Major Economies in 2030. The prices are set by the most
expensive abatement option (for example, CO2 capture and storage in industry in the OECD+ in
2030).
WEO2009 estimates that implementing the measures assumed in the 450 Scenario will increase
cumulative energyrelated investment4 over the period 20102030 by $10.5 trillion. The largest
increase is in transport, where most of the additional $4.7 trillion covers the additional cost of
purchasing more efficient, but more expensive, vehicles. The additional investment in buildings,
includingappliancesandequipment,amountsto$2.5trillion.Anextra$1.7trillionisneededforthe
powersector.Investmentinindustryrisesby$1.1trillion,mainlyformoreefficientprocessesand
electric motors. Facilities to produce biofuels require additional investment of $0.4 trillion. The
energyefficiencyinvestmentsinthebuildings,industryandtransportsectorsarerecoveredthrough
energycostsavings.
More than three quarters of the additional investment ($8.1 trillion) is needed in the last decade
because most of the CO2 emission reductions occur after 2020 (global CO2 emissions are cut by
3.8Gt in 2020 and by 13.8 Gt in 2030, relative to the Reference Scenario). About 48% of the
additionalinvestmentisneededinOECD+countries.OtherMajorEconomiesandOtherCountries
need30%and18%oftheadditionalinvestmentrespectively.Therestisneededforinternational
aviation.
In the 450 Scenario, the geographical and sectoral distribution of abatement expenditure and
investment does not equate to how those actions will be funded. This is entirely a matter for
negotiation.UNFCCCPartieshaveagreedthatdevelopedcountriesmustprovidefinancialsupport
todevelopingcountries,butthedeterminationoftheexactlevelofsupportisnotamatterforthe
IEA. It is clear that there is a wide range of possible funding outcomes. Under the assumptions
adoptedinthe450Scenario,$197billionofadditionalinvestmentismadeinnonOECDcountriesin
2020andanillustrationisgivenofhowOECD+mightcontributeanywherebetween$13billionand
$151billionofthis,inadditiontosupportingtechnologytransferandadaptation.
Although lower than in the Reference Scenario, OPEC revenues for oil and gas exports in the
450Scenarioincreaseto$23trillionbetween2008and2030,afourfoldincrease,comparedwith
the period 19852007. The 450 Scenario also yields energy security benefits and substantially
reduced import bills for most importing countries/regions. Human health and environmental
benefits accrue due to reduced local pollution:5 the pollution control costs for sulphur dioxide,
Allmonetaryfiguresareexpressedin2008USdollars.
WEO2009willincludeprojectionsofSO2,NOxandPM2.5(particulatematterwithanaerodynamicdiameter
oflessthan2.5m)fortheReferenceand450Scenarios.ThesearederivedfromIIASAsGAINSmodel.
5
OECD/IEA2009
nitrogenoxidesandparticulatematterarereducedby$40billionin2020andbyover$100billionin
2030,relativetotheReferenceScenario.ThelargestsavingsareinChinaandtheUnitedStates.
Whatisincludedintheprofiles
Statistical results for the 450 Scenario are presented here in the form of profiles for ten major
countries and regions: World, OECD+, United States, European Union, Japan, Other Major
Economies (OME) as a group, Russia,China, Other Countries (OC) and India.6 The profile for each
country/regionincludeshistoricalandprojectedCO2emissionsandenergydemand,keyindicators
(e.g., population, CO2 intensity, per capita CO2 emissions) and details of the emission reductions
under the assumptions adopted about different measures and technologies (such as energy
efficiency,renewables,biofuels,nuclear,andCO2captureandstorage).Theeconomicimplications
ofthe450Scenarioareshownintheformofindicators,suchastheincreasedinvestmentrequired
by sector or technology and the reductions in oil and gas import bills. These differ by
country/region. The policy opportunities for the country/region in order to achieve the required
energyrelatedCO2emissionsreductionsarelisted.
Thebaseyearoftheprojectionsis2007.Theemissionreductionsshownintheprofilesareachieved
withinthecountry/regionshownandbytheassumedmeasures;butthiscarriesnoimplicationthat
abatementmeasuresandinvestmentsarefundedwhollybythecountryinwhichtheyoccur.These
results therefore leave entirely open the negotiation of country commitments in the context of a
post2012climateagreement.
The figures and tables which follow cover the world or various geographical subgroupings (see
above).Thefiguresandtablesareinthesameformatforeacharea.Theyfallintosevencategories,
assetoutbelow.Ineachcase,theyareprecededbyasetofHighlights,drawnfromthefigures,and
conclude with three staccato points identifying the appropriate actions to realise the assumed
savingsineachregionorcountry.
EnergyrelatedCO2emissions
Figures2,7,12,17,22,27,32,37,42,47
ThesechartsshowhistoricalCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelcombustionfor1990and2007(thebase
yearofourprojections)andprojectionsfor2020and2030fortheReferenceandthe450Scenarios.
Emissions are shown by sector, along with the relative shares. Historical CO2 data come from IEA
databases.
Keyindicators
Tables1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
ThesetablesshowindicatorsrelatedtoenergyandCO2emissions:percapitaandintensitytrends,
cumulative emissions and sectoral efficiency. GDP is measured in purchasing power parity (PPP)
termsandin2008USdollars.Percapitaenergydemandismeasuredintonnesofoilequivalentof
primaryenergydemand.PowerCO2intensityistheaverageemissions(includingnewandexisting
powerplants)perkWhofelectricityoutput.CarfleetCO2intensityistheaverageonroadintensity
of passenger cars (across the entire fleet) and is indexed to 2007. Historical cumulative CO2
emissionsarederivedfromMarlandetal.(2006).
Theregionaldefinitionsaregiveninthesectiondescribingthepolicyframeworkinthe450Scenarioearlier
inthebooklet.
OECD/IEA2009
Page|13
EnergyrelatedCO2emissionsabatement
Figures3,8,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48
ThesechartsshowtheCO2emissionssavingsachievedthroughtheuseofenergyefficiencyatend
uselevelandinpowerplants(includingmoreefficientgasandcoalplants,switchingfromcoalto
gas and early retirements) and from the use of renewables (for electricity generation and heat
Page|14
production), biofuels, nuclear power and CO2 capture and storage (in power generation and
industry).Thetablethataccompaniesthechartshowsthesesavingsin2020and2030,aswellas
the corresponding cumulative incremental investment, relative to the Reference Scenario, in the
periods 20102020 and 20212030. Investment in nuclear power in the 450 Scenario in Russia is
lowerthanintheReferenceScenariointheperiod20102030becauseoflowerelectricitydemand
andbecauseofthelongeroperationallifetimesassumedforitsnuclearpowerplants,whichreduce
theneedtobuildnewcapacity.Russiasincrementalinvestmenthasbeenexpressedaszero.The
incrementalinvestmentinnuclearpowerinOtherMajorEconomiesasawholefortheperiod2010
2020takesaccountofthereductioninnuclearinvestmentinRussia,withthenetresultthatOME
incrementalinvestmentisactuallysmallerthanthatofChina.
Powergenerationcapacityinthe450Scenario
Figures4,9,14,19,24,29,34,39,44,49
These charts show power generation capacity for 2007, 2020 and 2030 by technology: coalfired
capacitywithoutCO2captureandstorage(CCS),gasfiredcapacitywithoutCCS,CCScapacity(coal
andgasareshowntogether),nuclearpower,hydropower(includingsmallandlarge),windpower
(including onshore and offshore) and other renewables (biomass, geothermal, solar and tide and
wavepower).
Shareofpassengervehiclesalesbytechnologyandaveragenewvehicleon
roadCO2intensityinthe450Scenario
Figures5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,45,50
Thesechartsshowthesharesofconventional(internalcombustionengine),hybrid,pluginhybrid
and electric vehicles in total sales in 2007 and in the 450 Scenario for 2020 and 2030. They also
showtheaverageonroadCO2intensitythatcorrespondstothesesales(measuredingrammesper
kilometreandtakingintoaccounttheuseofbiofuels).
Additionalinvestmentinthe450ScenariorelativetotheReferenceScenario
Figures6,11,16,21,26,31,36,41,46,51
Thesechartsshowincrementalannualinvestmentneedsintransport,biofuelsproduction,buildings
(including rooftop photovoltaics), power plants and industry (including industrial CCS), relative to
theReferenceScenario.
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:RegionalAnalysis
Profiles:RegionalAnalysis
World........................................................................................................................................17
OECD+.......................................................................................................................................21
UnitedStates............................................................................................................................25
EuropeanUnion........................................................................................................................29
Japan.........................................................................................................................................33
OtherMajorEconomies............................................................................................................37
Russia........................................................................................................................................41
China.........................................................................................................................................45
OtherCountries........................................................................................................................49
India..........................................................................................................................................53
OECD/IEA2009
Page|15
Profiles:World
World
Highlights
6%globalincreaseinenergyrelatedCO2emissionsby2020,relativeto2007,tomeet450 Page|17
Scenario
Power generation CO2 intensity decreasing by 21% and average car fleet CO2 intensity
decreasingby37%by2020in450Scenariocomparedwith2007
3% increase in emissions from buildings and 9% increase in industry in 450 Scenario by

2020,relativeto2007
Additional investment, relative to Reference Scenario, in lowcarbon technologies and

energyefficiencycloseto$430billionin2020tomeet450Scenario
Emissions
Gt
Figure2: WorldenergyrelatedCO2emissions
45
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
20.9 Gt
10%
14%
19%
22%
36%
28.8 Gt
10%
10%
17%
Table1:
30.7 Gt
10%
9%
17%
22%
Buildings
Industry
26.4 Gt
11%
10%
17%
23%
23%
23%
Transport
Power
generation
29%
44%
43%
41%
Reference
Scenario
450
Scenario
41%
1990
34.5 Gt
9%
9%
16%
Other
40.2 Gt
9%
8%
15%
40
2007
32%
Reference
Scenario
2020
450
Scenario
2030
Worldkeyindicators
1990
2007
Population(million)
5263
Shareofworldpopulation
100%
GDP($2008trillion,PPP)
6614
2020
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
7608
2030
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
8236
100%
100%
100%
137.0
38.6
67.2
102.1
ShareofworldGDP
100%
100%
100%
ShareofworldCO2emissions
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
4.0
4.4
4.5
4.0
4.9
3.2
1.7
CO2emissionspercapita(t)
100%
Energydemandpercapita(toe)
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.8
2.0
CO2intensityindex(world2007=100)
126
100
79
70
68
45
CumulativeCO2since1890(Gt)
778
1201
1608
1589
1984
1871
ShareofcumulativeworldCO2
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
PowerCO2intensity(g/kWh)
632
603
549
479
520
283
CarfleetCO2intensity(2007=100)
n.a.
100
78
63
75
47
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:World
Technologyoutlook
Gt
Figure3: WorldenergyrelatedCO2emissionsabatement
42
Abatement
(Mt CO2)
Reference Scenario
40
36
34
32
30
28
450 Scenario
26
2007 2010
2015
2020
2025
Investment
($2008 billion)
2020
2030
20102020
20212030
Efficiency
2 517
End-use
2 284
Power plants 233
Renewables
680
Biofuels
57
Nuclear
493
CCS
102
7 880
7 145
735
2 741
429
1 380
1 410
1 999
1 933
66
527
27
125
56
5 586
5 551
35
2 260
378
491
646
38
2030
Figure4: Worldpowergenerationcapacityinthe450Scenario
2007
Coal without CCS
2020
Gas without CCS
2030
Coal and gas with CCS

Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Other renewables
0
250
500
750
1 000
1 250
1 500
1 750
GW
Figure5: Worldshareofpassengervehiclesalesbytechnologyandaveragenewvehicleonroad
CO2intensityinthe450Scenario
100%
250
80%
200
205
150
60%
125
40%
100
90
50
20%
0%
0
2007
2020
2030
Grammes per kilometre
Page|18
ICE vehicles
Hybrid vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles
CO2 intensity (right axis)
2030 fuel mix
Petroleum fuels
80.2%
Biofuels
12.0%
Electricity
6.2%
Natural gas
1.6%
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:World
Costandbenefits
Billion dollars (2008)
Figure6: Worldadditionalinvestmentinthe450ScenariorelativetotheReferenceScenario
1 200
Industry
Page|19
Power plants
1 000
Buildings
800
Biofuels
600
Transport
400
200
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
Additional cumulative investment cost: almost $2400 billion over 20102020 and
$8100billionover20212030
Total investment in the 450 Scenario of almost $6600 billion in lowcarbon power
generationover20102030(72%renewables,19%nuclear,9%CCS)
Incrementalinvestmentcostequalto0.5%ofGDPin2020,risingto1.1%ofGDPin2030
Total fuel cost saving of $8600billion between 2010 and 2030, across industry, buildings
andtransport
Localairpollutioncostsreducedby$40billionin2020and$100billionin2030,relativeto
theReferenceScenario
Policyopportunities
An ambitious, robust global agreement in Copenhagen, which will credibly deliver

substantial emissions abatement relative to the Reference Scenario, with financial and
technology support to ensure that all regions contribute and including an expanded,
reformedCDM
Fasterdeploymentoflowcarbonpowertechnologies,whichtogetheraccountforover5Gt
ofabatementrelativetotheReferenceScenarioby2030.Thisincludesmuchfasterrollout
ofrenewablesandnuclearandurgentinvestmentinanddevelopmentofCO2captureand
storage
A transformation in enduse efficiency investment, to deliver over 7 Gt of abatement by

2030. Much of this will be carried out by households, who need strong incentives to
purchasemoreefficientvehiclesandappliances
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:OECD+
OECD+
Highlights
17% reduction in energyrelated CO2 emissions by 2020, relative to 2007, to meet 450 Page|21
Scenario
decreasingby39%by2020,comparedwith2007
10%reductioninemissionsfrombuildingsand17%reductioninindustryby2020,relative
to2007
Additionalinvestmentinlowcarbontechnologiesandenergyefficiencycloseto$220billion
in2020tomeetthe450Scenario
Emissions
Gt
Figure7: OECD+energyrelatedCO2emissions
16
12
Other
11.4 Gt
9%
14%
16%
13.1 Gt
9%
12%
12%
12.5 Gt
9%
12%
11%
27%
Buildings
12.7 Gt
10%
12%
11%
10.9 Gt
10%
13%
12%
Industry
Transport
7.7 Gt
13%
16%
12%
28%
28%
29%
24%
4
36%
40%
40%
36%
40%
36%
23%
0
Reference
Scenario
1990
Table2:
Power
generation
2007
450
Scenario
Reference
Scenario
2020
450
Scenario
2030
OECD+keyindicators
1990
2007
Population(million)
2020
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
1307
2030
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
1344
1090
1229
21%
19%
17%
16%
26.2
40.1
49.7
60.0
ShareofworldGDP
68%
60%
49%
54%
46%
36%
35%
32%
29%
10.4
10.7
9.6
8.3
9.4
5.7
4.2
4.5
4.3
4.1
4.4
3.9
101
76
59
51
49
30
498
700
863
854
989
944
64%
58%
54%
54%
50%
50%
528
484
417
343
380
145
n.a.
100
74
61
69
43
44%
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:OECD+
Technologyoutlook
Figure8: OECD+energyrelatedCO2emissionsabatement
Gt
14
Page|22
Abatement
(Mt CO2)
Reference Scenario
13
Investment
($2008 billion)
2020
2030
20102020
20212030
Efficiency
1 102
End-use
921
Power plants 181
Renewables
184
Biofuels
12
Nuclear
271
CCS
86
2 253
1 894
359
816
228
670
1 013
1 158
1 117
42
204
8
64
48
2 332
2 319
13
831
223
241
512
12
11
10
9
8
450 Scenario
7
2007 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Figure9: OECD+powergenerationcapacityinthe450Scenario
2007
Coal without CCS
2020
Gas without CCS
2030

Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Other renewables
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
GW
100%
250
80%
200
200
150
60%
40%
100
115
80
20%
0%
2007
2020
2030
50
0
Figure10: OECD+shareofpassengervehiclesalesbytechnologyandaveragenewvehicleonroad
ICE vehicles
Hybrid vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles
2030 fuel mix
Petroleum fuels
78.9%
Biofuels
14.6%
Electricity
5.8%
Natural gas
0.7%
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:OECD+
Costandbenefits
Figure11: OECD+additionalinvestmentinthe450ScenariorelativetotheReferenceScenario
600
Industry
Page|23
Power plants
500
Buildings
400
Biofuels
300
Transport
200
100
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
Additional cumulative investment cost: in excess of $1300billion over 20102020; nearly

Totalinvestmentinthe450Scenarioofover$3100billioninlowcarbonpowergeneration
over20102030(65%renewables,20%nuclear,15%CCS)
Oilsavingsof7.3mb/din2030inthe450Scenario,comparedwiththeReferenceScenario
anamountclosetoChinas2008oildemand
Local air pollution costs reduced in excess of $20billion in 2020 and $50billion in 2030,
relativetotheReferenceScenario
Policyopportunities
Implement an OECDwide emissions trading scheme to deliver emission reductions in

powergenerationandindustry
Expand support mechanisms for enduse sectors to encourage investment in energy

efficiencyinbuildingsandtransport
Facilitate the transfer of lowcarbon technologies to nonOECD countries, through

internationalsectoralagreements,thepurchaseofcarboncreditsandothermeasures
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:UnitedStates
UnitedStates
Highlights
18% reduction in energy related CO2 emissions by 2020 (relative to 2007) to meet 450 Page|25
Scenario
16% reduction in CO2 emissions from buildings and 25% reduction in industry by 2020,
relativeto2007
Additional investment in lowcarbon technologies and energy efficiency of close to

$90billionin2020tomeet450Scenario
Emissions
Gt
Figure12: UnitedStatesenergyrelatedCO2emissions
7
Other
6
5
4
4.8 Gt
9%
12%
12%
3
2
1
5.7 Gt
8%
9%
8%
5.5 Gt
8%
9%
7%
31%
31%
4.7 Gt
9%
10%
8%
Industry
Transport
3.2 Gt
11%
12%
7%
41%
31%
33%
29%
43%
38%
44%
45%
41%
Power
generation
28%
Reference
Scenario
1990
Table3:
Buildings
5.5 Gt
8%
9%
7%
2007
450
Scenario
Reference
Scenario
2020
450
Scenario
2030
UnitedStateskeyindicators
1990
2007
254
306
5%
5%
5%
4%
22.4
Population(million)
2020
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
343
2030
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
367
8.7
14.1
18.1
ShareofworldGDP
23%
21%
18%
23%
20%
16%
15%
14%
12%
19.1
18.7
15.9
13.7
15.1
8.6
7.5
7.6
6.7
6.3
6.5
5.7
130
95
70
61
58
33
239
333
404
400
459
437
31%
28%
25%
25%
23%
23%
577
565
509
423
468
185
n.a.
100
80
59
72
39
16%
OECD/IEA2009
Technologyoutlook
Figure13: UnitedStatesenergyrelatedCO2emissionsabatement
Gt
6.0
Page|26
Abatement
(Mt CO2)
Reference Scenario
5.5
5.0
Efficiency
End-use
Power plants
Renewables
Biofuels
Nuclear
CCS
4.5
4.0
3.5
450 Scenario
3.0
2007 2010
2015
2020
2025
Investment
($2008 billion)
2020
2030
20102020
20212030
548
411
137
43
0
101
57
1 141
855
286
288
136
206
593
475
443
32
36
0
62
33
955
949
5
330
127
77
300
2030
Figure14: UnitedStatespowergenerationcapacityinthe450Scenario
2007
Coal without CCS
2020
Gas without CCS
2030

Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Other renewables
0
75
150
225
300
375
450
GW
250
100%
80%
230
200
150
60%
130
40%
100
90
50
20%
0%
2007
2020
2030
Figure15: United States share of passenger vehicle sales by technology and average new vehicle
onroadCO2intensityinthe450Scenario
ICE vehicles
Hybrid vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles
2030 fuel mix
Petroleum fuels
Biofuels
Electricity
Natural gas
73.2%
19.8%
6.0%
1.0%
OECD/IEA2009
Costandbenefits
Figure16: United States additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference
Scenario
250
Page|27
Industry
Power plants
200
Buildings
Biofuels
150
Transport
100
50
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
Additional cumulative investment cost: in excess of $520billion over 20102020;

over20102030(53%renewables,27%CCS,19%nuclear)
Oil and gas import bill reduced by $80billion in 2020 and nearly $155billion in 2030,
comparedwiththeReferenceScenario
Localairpollutioncostsreducedbycloseto$10billionin2020andinexcessof$20billion
in2030,relativetotheReferenceScenario
Policyopportunities
Establish a capandtrade scheme that promotes domestic reductions and allows the
purchaseofcreditstosupportemissionsreductionsinothercountriesandsectors
ProvidefundingforCCStoachievecommercialisationby2020;andencourageinvestment
inrenewablesandnuclearpower
Strengthen policies and standards for new and refurbished buildings and reduce the CO2
intensityofnewpassengervehiclesto110grammesperkmby2020
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:EuropeanUnion
EuropeanUnion
Highlights
20% reduction in energyrelated CO2 emissions by 2020 (relative to 2007) to meet 450 Page|29
Scenario
7%reductioninemissionsfrombuildingsand17%reductioninindustryby2020,relativeto
2007
Additional investment in lowcarbon technologies and energy efficiency of $70billion in

2020tomeet450Scenario
Emissions
Gt
Figure17: EuropeanUnionenergyrelatedCO2emissions
5
4
Other
4.0 Gt
9%
3.9 Gt
10%
18%
15%
18%
13%
19%
25%
3
2
1
37%
37%
3.6 Gt
9%
16%
13%
2007
2.3 Gt
13%
23%
13%
27%
26%
35%
Transport
12%
14%
26%
Industry
3.5 Gt
9%
17%
3.1 Gt
10%
18%
Reference
Scenario
1990
Table4:
Buildings
Power
generation
32%
32%
35%
450
Scenario
Reference
Scenario
20%
2020
450
Scenario
2030
EuropeanUnionkeyindicators
1990
2007
473
496
Population(million)
2020
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
508
2030
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
508
9%
7%
7%
6%
10.4
15.1
17.9
21.3
ShareofworldGDP
27%
22%
19%
13%
10%
10%
9%
9%
8.5
7.8
7.0
6.1
6.9
4.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.3
90
60
46
40
39
25
211
276
322
320
358
346
27%
23%
20%
20%
18%
18%
581
436
348
275
312
118
n.a.
100
74
63
65
46
18%
16%
OECD/IEA2009
Technologyoutlook
Figure18: EuropeanUnionenergyrelatedCO2emissionsabatement
Gt
4.0
Page|30
Abatement
(Mt CO2)
Reference Scenario
3.5
Efficiency
End-use
Power plants
Renewables
Biofuels
Nuclear
CCS
3.0
2.5
450 Scenario
2.0
2007 2010
2015
2020
2025
Investment
($2008 billion)
2020
2030
20102020
20212030
206
197
9
80
1
143
16
438
414
24
256
50
253
250
392
387
5
113
4
0
9
709
709
0
268
60
88
126
2030
Figure19: EuropeanUnionpowergenerationcapacityinthe450Scenario
2007
Coal without CCS
2020
Gas without CCS
2030

Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Other renewables
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
GW
100%
250
80%
200
60%
170
150
100
40%
100
70
20%
0%
2007
2020
2030
50
0
Figure20: EuropeanUnionshareofpassengervehiclesalesbytechnologyandaveragenewvehicle
ICE vehicles
Hybrid vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles
2030 fuel mix
Petroleum fuels
Biofuels
Electricity
Natural gas
80.0%
14.7%
4.9%
0.4%
OECD/IEA2009
Costandbenefits
Figure21: European Union additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference
Scenario
160
Page|31
Industry
Power plants
Buildings
120
Biofuels
Transport
80
40
2015
2020
2025
2030
Additional cumulative investment cost: nearly $500billion over 20102020; in excess of

Total investment in the 450 Scenario of nearly $1300billion in lowcarbon power

Oil and gas import bill reduced in excess of $90billion in 2020 and nearly $240 billion in
2030,comparedwiththeReferenceScenario
Localairpollutioncostsreducedby$9billionin2020and$15billionin2030,relativetothe
ReferenceScenario
Policyopportunities
Continue the policy support to increase the use of renewables in electricity, heat and
biofuelsproductiontoreachthe20%targetin2020;strengthentheframeworktosupport
renewablesforheat
Support the commercialisation of CCS through a carbon price via the emissions trading
schemeandthroughadditionalfunding,suchastherevenuesfrom300millionallowances
forearlydemonstrationprojects
Enhancepoliciestoachievegreaterefficiencyinbuildings;andmeetthetargetof95gCO2
perkmfornewpassengercarsby2020
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:Japan
Japan
Highlights
22% reduction in energy related CO2 emissions by 2020 (relative to 2007) to meet 450 Page|33
Scenario
9% reduction in CO2 emissions from buildings and 16% reduction in industry by 2020,
relativeto2007

Emissions
Gt
Figure22: JapanenergyrelatedCO2emissions
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
1.1 Gt
8%
13%
25%
1.2 Gt
7%
12%
20%
Buildings
1.0 Gt
7%
13%
21%
19%
1.0 Gt
8%
14%
1.0 Gt
7%
15%
22%
21%
17%
15%
40%
42%
18%
20%
Industry
Transport
0.6 Gt
10%
21%
Power
generation
25%
34%
41%
41%
Reference
Scenario
1990
19%
25%
Table5:
Other
2007
450
Scenario
Reference
Scenario
2020
450
Scenario
2030
Japankeyindicators
1990
2007
123
128
Population(million)
2020
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
124
2030
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
118
2%
2%
2%
1%
3.5
4.4
4.9
5.5
ShareofworldGDP
9%
7%
5%
4%
3%
5%
3%
2%
4%
2%
8.6
9.6
8.4
7.8
8.4
5.4
3.5
4.0
3.9
3.7
4.1
3.8
71
65
50
46
42
27
29
48
63
62
73
70
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
435
450
354
326
321
134
n.a.
100
79
61
72
48
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:Japan
Technologyoutlook
Figure23: JapanenergyrelatedCO2emissionsabatement
Gt
1.3
Page|34
Abatement
(Mt CO2)
1.2
1.1
Reference Scenario
0.9
0.8
0.7
450 Scenario
0.6
2007 2010
2015
2020
2025
2020
2030
20102020
20212030
65
60
5
7
1
10
1
138
128
10
66
4
103
38
77
74
3
21
1
0
1
164
161
3
71
7
36
21
Efficiency
End-use
Power plants
Renewables
Biofuels
Nuclear
CCS
1.0
Investment
($2008 billion)
2030
Figure24: Japanpowergenerationcapacityinthe450Scenario
2007
Coal without CCS
2020
Gas without CCS
2030

Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Other renewables
0
20
40
60
80
100
GW
100%
250
80%
200
60%
185
40%
150
100
110
85
20%
0%
2007
2020
2030
50
0
Figure25: Japanshareofpassengervehiclesalesbytechnologyandaveragenewvehicleonroad
ICE vehicles
Hybrid vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles
2030 fuel mix
Petroleum fuels
Biofuels
Electricity
Natural gas
92.3%
2.1%
5.4%
0.2%
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:Japan
Costandbenefits
Figure26: Japanadditionalinvestmentinthe450ScenariorelativetotheReferenceScenario
40
Industry
35
Power plants
30
Buildings
25
Biofuels
20
Transport
Page|35
15
10
5
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
Additional cumulative investment cost: close to $90billion over 20102020; $280billion

over20212030
Total investment in the 450 Scenario in excess of $200billion in lowcarbon power

Incrementalinvestmentcostequalto0.3%ofGDPin2020,risingto0.6%by2030
Oil and gas import bill reduced in excess of $30billion in 2020 and $60billion in 2030,
ReferenceScenario
Policyopportunities
Promote the use of cleaner energy and efficiency in buildings efficient though they are,
thereisscopeformorethroughgreateruseofphotovoltaics,advancedwaterheatersand
moreheatinsulation
Accelerate the construction of nuclear power plants and raise the average load factor to
achieveagreaterthan40%shareofnuclearpowerintotalelectricitygenerationby2030
Substantially increase the share of next generation vehicles (including electric and hybrid
cars)
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:OtherMajorEconomies
OtherMajorEconomies
Highlights
30% increase in energyrelated CO2 emissions by 2020 (relative to 2007) to meet 450 Page|37
Scenario
22%increaseinemissionsfrombuildingsand19%increaseinindustryby2020,relativeto
2007
Additional investment in lowcarbon technologies and energy efficiency in excess of

Emissions
Gt
Figure27: OtherMajorEconomiesenergyrelatedCO2emissions
20
Other
16
12
8
4
0
5.5 Gt 10%
15%
23%
12%
39%
1990
Table6:
9.7 Gt
10%
7%
23%
12%
17.0 Gt
9%
6%
14.1 Gt
10%
7%
20%
12.6 Gt
10%
7%
21%
13%
18%
11.1 Gt
12%
8%
19%
16%
Reference
Scenario
450
Scenario
Transport
Power
generation
20%
51%
48%
2007
Industry
14%
51%
48%
Buildings
41%
Reference
Scenario
2020
450
Scenario
2030
OtherMajorEconomieskeyindicators
1990
2007
1605
1901
31%
29%
27%
26%
43.5
Population(million)
2020
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
2069
2030
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
2140
6.2
14.4
29.8
ShareofworldGDP
16%
21%
29%
26%
34%
41%
41%
42%
42%
3.4
5.1
6.8
6.1
8.0
5.2
2.3
32%
1.4
1.9
2.5
2.3
2.9
205
157
111
99
91
59
187
319
476
468
633
586
24%
27%
30%
29%
32%
31%
906
814
715
641
664
421
n.a.
100
80
62
74
44
OECD/IEA2009
Technologyoutlook
Figure28: OtherMajorEconomiesenergyrelatedCO2emissionsabatement
Gt
18
Page|38
Abatement
(Mt CO2)
Reference Scenario
16
Efficiency
End-use
Power plants
Renewables
Biofuels
Nuclear
CCS
14
12
450 Scenario
10
8
2007 2010
2015
2020
2025
Investment
($2008 billion)
2020
2030
20102020
20212030
944
927
17
357
23
209
12
4 018
3 713
305
1 059
94
459
345
491
477
14
231
11
57
5
1 889
1 883
6
685
56
134
109
2030
Figure29: OtherMajorEconomiespowergenerationcapacityinthe450Scenario
2007
Coal without CCS
2020
Gas without CCS
2030

Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Other renewables
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
GW
250
100%
80%
235
200
150
60%
135
100
40%
90
50
20%
0%
0
2007
2020
2030
Figure30: OtherMajorEconomiesshareofpassengervehiclesalesbytechnologyandaveragenew
vehicleonroadCO2intensityinthe450Scenario
ICE vehicles
Hybrid vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles
2030 fuel mix
Petroleum fuels
Biofuels
Electricity
Natural gas
79.9%
11.3%
7.6%
1.2%
OECD/IEA2009
Costandbenefits
Figure31: Other Major Economies additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the
ReferenceScenario
400
Page|39
Industry
Power plants
Buildings
300
Biofuels
Transport
200
100
2015
2020
2025
2030

Total investment in the 450 Scenario of close to $2000billion in lowcarbon power

Oilsavingsof4.7mb/din2030inthe450Scenario,comparedwiththeReferenceScenario,
anamountclosetoJapans2008oildemand
Local air pollution costs reduced in excess of $10billion in 2020 and $40billion in 2030,
Policyopportunities
Reducetheenvironmentalfootprintoffossilfuels,especiallythroughpricesubsidyreform,
anddiversifyenergysupplytoobtaingreaterrelianceonrenewablesandnuclearpower
Promote energy efficiency measures, such as setting building codes, and participate in
internationalsectoralagreementsinordertoensureadoptionoflesspollutingtechnologies
inindustryandpassengercars
Further develop carbon credit markets through the implementation of CDM projects and
capitaliseonthisexperiencetoparticipateinanemissionstradingschemesoonafter2020
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:Russia
Russia
Highlights
Scenario
2% increase in emissions from buildings and 3% decrease in industry by 2020, relative to

2007
Additional investment in lowcarbon technologies and energy efficiency of close to

Emissions
Gt
Figure32: RussiaenergyrelatedCO2emissions
2.5
2.0
1.5
Other
2.2 Gt
7%
15%
11%
14%
1.0
0.5
53%
1.6 Gt
9%
9%
12%
15%
Table7:
2007
1.6 Gt
10%
9%
11%
16%
55%
55%
1990
1.7 Gt
9%
9%
11%
16%
Buildings
1.9 Gt
9%
9%
11%
Industry
1.3 Gt
11%
10%
11%
20%
16%
Transport
Power
generation
56%
54%
48%
Reference
450
Scenario
Scenario
2020
Reference
Scenario
450
Scenario
2030
Russiakeyindicators
Population(million)
1990
2007
148
142
2020
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
135
2030
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
129
3%
2%
2%
2%
2.0
2.1
3.4
4.6
ShareofworldGDP
5%
3%
10%
5%
5%
3%
5%
5%
3%
5%
14.7
11.1
12.8
11.8
15.0
10.4
5.9
4.7
5.4
5.2
6.3
5.3
250
171
120
111
98
68
107
135
156
156
175
170
14%
11%
10%
10%
9%
9%
1074
854
781
711
756
501
n.a.
100
91
64
86
51
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:Russia
Technologyoutlook
Figure33: RussiaenergyrelatedCO2emissionsabatement
Gt
2.0
Abatement
(Mt CO2)
Reference Scenario
Page|42
1.8
1.4
450 Scenario
1.2
2007 2010
2015
2020
2025
2020
2030
20102020
20212030
48
47
1
47
1
31
7
308
305
3
190
2
33
59
51
48
3
7
0
0
3
153
153
0
89
1
0
25
Efficiency
End-use
Power plants
Renewables
Biofuels
Nuclear
CCS
1.6
Investment
($2008 billion)
2030
Figure34: Russiapowergenerationcapacityinthe450Scenario
2007
Coal without CCS
2020
Gas without CCS
2030

Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Other renewables
0
20
40
60
80
100
GW
250
100%
80%
225
200
150
60%
140
100
40%
95
50
20%
0%
2007
2020
2030
Figure35: Russiashareofpassengervehiclesalesbytechnologyandaveragenewvehicleonroad
ICE vehicles
Hybrid vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles
2030 fuel mix
Petroleum fuels
Biofuels
Electricity
Natural gas
94.3%
1.4%
4.0%
0.3%
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:Russia
Costandbenefits
Figure36: Russiaadditionalinvestmentinthe450ScenariorelativetotheReferenceScenario
40
Industry
35
Power plants
30
Buildings
25
Biofuels
20
Transport
Page|43
15
10
5
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
Additional cumulative investment cost: $18billion over 20102020 and $180billion over
20212030
Total investment in the 450 Scenario of in excess of $220billion in lowcarbon power

Oilsavingsof0.3mb/din2030inthe450ScenariocomparedwiththeReferenceScenario
ReferenceScenario
Policyopportunities
Adopt the Law on Energy Efficiency and ensure its effective implementation to reduce
energylossesinindustry,theresidentialsectorandtransport
Create the conditions for greater use of renewable energy in electricity generation by
decidingonsupportmeasuresandengagingtheprivatesector
Continuetoimplementpricesubsidyreformbyfollowingthroughonthegovernmentplans
toraisedomesticenergyprices
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:China
China
Highlights
38% increase in energy related CO2 emissions by 2020 (relative to 2007) to meet 450 Page|45
Scenario
37%increaseinCO2emissionsfrombuildingsand19%increaseinindustryby2020,relative
to2007

Emissions
Gt
Figure37: ChinaenergyrelatedCO2emissions
14
Other
11.6 Gt
8%
5%
12
9.6 Gt
8%
5%
10
8
6
4
2
0
12%
18%
2.2 Gt 36%
5%
29%
23%
6.1 Gt
9%
6%
28%
7%
9%
Industry
Transport
20%
7.1 Gt
11%
7%
21%
12%
52%
50%
45%
450
Scenario
2007
Power
generation
17%
55%
55%
Reference
Scenario
1990
Table8:
8.4 Gt
9%
6%
24%
9%
Buildings
Reference
Scenario
2020
450
Scenario
2030
Chinakeyindicators
2020
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
1429
2030
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
1461
1990
2007
1141
1327
22%
20%
19%
18%
1.5
7.6
18.8
28.5
Population(million)
ShareofworldGDP
4%
11%
11%
21%
28%
27%
29%
27%
2.0
4.6
6.7
5.9
8.0
4.8
0.8
1.5
2.2
2.0
2.6
2.0
349
187
119
104
95
58
42
104
208
202
315
280
18%
21%
5%
9%
13%
13%
16%
15%
1003
922
782
698
722
448
n.a.
100
76
58
72
43
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:China
Technologyoutlook
Figure38: ChinaenergyrelatedCO2emissionsabatement
Gt
12
Page|46
Abatement
(Mt CO2)
Reference Scenario
11
2020
2030
20102020
20212030
728
728
0
279
0
168
3
3 195
2 923
272
715
35
366
243
266
257
8
208
1
63
1
1 210
1 205
5
485
28
107
68
10
Efficiency
End-use
Power plants
Renewables
Biofuels
Nuclear
CCS
9
8
7
450 Scenario
6
5
2007 2010
2015
2020
2025
Investment
($2008 billion)
2030
Figure39: Chinapowergenerationcapacityinthe450Scenario
2007
Coal without CCS
2020
Gas without CCS
2030

Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Other renewables
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
GW
250
100%
80%
235
200
150
60%
135
40%
100
90
50
20%
0%
2007
2020
2030
Figure40: Chinashareofpassengervehiclesalesbytechnologyandaveragenewvehicleonroad
ICE vehicles
Hybrid vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles
2030 fuel mix
Petroleum fuels
Biofuels
Electricity
Natural gas
81.6%
8.1%
10.0%
0.3%
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:China
Costandbenefits
Figure41: Chinaadditionalinvestmentinthe450ScenariorelativetotheReferenceScenario
250
Industry
Page|47
Power plants
200
Buildings
Biofuels
150
Transport
100
50
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
Additional cumulative investment cost: nearly $400billion over 20102020 and

Total investment in the 450 Scenario of nearly $1500billion in lowcarbon power

Oil and gas import bill reduced by nearly $40billion in 2020 and $170billion in 2030,
Localairpollutioncostsreducedbyaround$10billionin2020andinexcessof$30billionin
2030,relativetotheReferenceScenario
Policyopportunities
Continuerecentambitiouspoliciestoraisetheshareofnuclear,windandsolarpower(16%
of installed capacity by 2020) in power generation and raise hydropower capacity to
300GWby2020
Intensifyeffortstorebalancetheeconomytowardsservices,whichwouldmoderategrowth
inindustrialemissions
Establishstandardsfortheefficiencyofnewbuildings,appliancesandlightingandpromote
effortstosaveenergyinbuildings,asprescribedinChinasMediumandLongTermEnergy
ConservationPlan
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:OtherCountries
OtherCountries
Highlights
Scenario
2007
Additional investment in lowcarbon technologies and energy efficiency in excess of

Emissions
Gt
Figure42: OtherCountriesenergyrelatedCO2emissions
10
8
6
4
2
0
3.5 Gt
11%
15%
23%
16%
36%
1990
Table9:
Other
9.1 Gt
9%
8%
5.0 Gt
12%
10%
20%
18%
6.7 Gt
11%
9%
18%
20%
23%
18%
Transport
Power
generation
24%
44%
42%
41%
Reference
Scenario
450
Scenario
40%
Industry
6.4 Gt
11%
10%
19%
6.1 Gt
11%
9%
21%
20%
Buildings
2007
33%
Reference
Scenario
2020
450
Scenario
2030
OtherCountrieskeyindicators
Population(million)
2020
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
4232
2030
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
4753
1990
2007
2568
3484
49%
53%
56%
58%
33.5
6.2
12.7
22.6
ShareofworldGDP
16%
19%
22%
17%
17%
19%
20%
23%
24%
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.9
1.4
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.8
132
91
69
62
64
45
92
178
252
249
331
312
12%
15%
16%
16%
17%
17%
727
627
535
489
518
314
n.a.
100
95
74
88
59
24%
OECD/IEA2009
Technologyoutlook
Figure43: OtherCountriesenergyrelatedCO2emissionsabatement
Gt
10
Page|50
Abatement
(Mt CO2)
Reference Scenario
Efficiency
End-use
Power plants
Renewables
Biofuels
Nuclear
CCS
7
6
450 Scenario
5
4
2007 2010
2015
2020
2025
Investment
($2008 billion)
2020
2030
20102020
20212030
443
408
35
139
22
12
4
1 469
1 398
71
865
50
250
53
308
297
11
92
9
4
2
982
965
16
745
32
117
25
2030
Figure44: OtherCountriespowergenerationcapacityinthe450Scenario
2007
Coal without CCS
2020
Gas without CCS
2030

Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Other renewables
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
GW
250
100%
240
80%
200
60%
150
145
40%
110
50
20%
0%
100
2007
2020
2030
Figure45: OtherCountriesshareofpassengervehiclesalesbytechnologyandaveragenewvehicle
ICE vehicles
Hybrid vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles
2030 fuel mix
Petroleum fuels
Biofuels
Electricity
Natural gas
83.4%
6.9%
5.2%
4.5%
OECD/IEA2009
Costandbenefits
Figure46: Other Countries additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference
Scenario
250
Page|51
Industry
Power plants
200
Buildings
Biofuels
150
Transport
100
50
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
Additional cumulative investment cost: nearly $400billion over 20102020; close to

over20102030(85%renewables,13%nuclear,1%CCS)
Oilsavingsof3.3mb/din2030inthe450Scenario,comparedwiththeReferenceScenario,
anamountclosetoIndias2008oildemand
Localairpollutioncostsreducedby$4billionin2020andinexcessof$10billionin2030,
Policyopportunities
Reducetheenvironmentalfootprintoffossilfuels,especiallythroughpricesubsidyreform,
anddiversifyenergysupplythroughgreaterrelianceonrenewablesandnuclearpower
Define national potentials for energy efficiency, set building codes and participate in
international sectoral agreements to adopt less polluting technologies in industry and
passengercars
Expand the role of CDM to attract much needed investment, to achieve economic
developmentandcleanerenergytechnologiesatthesametime
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:India
India
Highlights
Scenario
2007
Additionalinvestmentinlowcarbontechnologiesandenergyefficiencyofnearly$25billion
in2020tomeet450Scenario
Emissions
Gt
Figure47: IndiaenergyrelatedCO2emissions
4
Other
3.4 Gt
7%
5%
6%
12%
0.6 Gt 26%
14%
42%
1990
1.3 Gt
8%
8%
18%
9%
56%
Industry
20%
2.2 Gt
9%
6%
21%
11%
1.9 Gt
8%
7%
21%
11%
2.2 Gt
8%
7%
24%
15%
52%
Reference
Scenario
450
Scenario
Transport
Power
generation
20%
53%
53%
2007
Buildings
41%
Reference
Scenario
2020
450
Scenario
2030
Table10: Indiakeyindicators
2020
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
1319
2030
Reference
450
Scenario Scenario
1432
1990
2007
Population(million)
850
1123
16%
17%
17%
17%
1.1
3.1
7.1
12.5
ShareofworldGDP
3%
5%
3%
5%
6%
6%
8%
8%
0.7
1.2
1.6
1.4
2.3
1.5
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.8
126
101
71
63
63
41
13
31
52
51
80
72
7%
9%
2%
3%
3%
3%
4%
4%
848
942
698
628
650
376
n.a.
100
89
66
83
53
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:India
Technologyoutlook
Figure48: IndiaenergyrelatedCO2emissionsabatement
Gt
3.5
Page|54
Abatement
(Mt CO2)
Reference Scenario
3.0
Efficiency
End-use
Power plants
Renewables
Biofuels
Nuclear
CCS
2.5
2.0
450 Scenario
1.5
1.0
2007 2010
2015
2020
2025
Investment
($2008 billion)
2020
2030
20102020
20212030
170
148
22
76
1
0
2
601
544
57
400
5
131
30
74
66
8
48
1
0
1
301
290
11
312
11
59
11
2030
Figure49: Indiapowergenerationcapacityinthe450Scenario
2007
Coal without CCS
2020
Gas without CCS
2030

Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Other renewables
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
GW
250
100%
80%
225
200
150
60%
140
40%
110
50
20%
0%
100
2007
2020
2030
Figure50: India share of passenger vehicle sales by technology and average new vehicle onroad
ICE vehicles
Hybrid vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles
2030 fuel mix
Petroleum fuels
Biofuels
Electricity
Natural gas
86.5%
6.1%
5.1%
2.3%
OECD/IEA2009
Profiles:India
Costandbenefits
Figure51: Indiaadditionalinvestmentinthe450ScenariorelativetotheReferenceScenario
70
Industry
60
Power plants
Page|55
Buildings
50
Biofuels
40
Transport
30
20
10
0
2015
2020
2025
2030

Total investment in the 450 Scenario in excess of $550billion in lowcarbon power

Oil and gas import bill reduced in excess of $30billion in 2020 and $90billion in 2030,
ReferenceScenario
Policyopportunities
Accelerate investment in nuclear power plants and strengthen policies to promote

renewablesinpowergeneration,asectorthatprovidesmajoropportunitiestoreduceCO2
emissionsandlocalpollutants
Further define and strengthen policies to promote cleaner transport, including the use of
masstransportandmoreefficientcars
ContinuetheimplementationofCDMprojectsandexpandCDMtomoresectors
OECD/IEA2009
World
Energy
Outlook
RELEASE
10 November 2009
International
Energy Agecny
2
0
0
9
World Energy Outlook
2009
Since WEO-2008, the economic downturn has led to a drop in energy use, CO2
emissions and energy investment. Is this an opportunity to arrest climate change or
a threat that any economic upturn might be stifled at birth?
What package of commitments and measures should the climate negotiators at
Copenhagen put together if they really want to stop global temperatures rising?
How much would it cost? And how much might the developed world have to pay to
finance action elsewhere?
How big is the gas resource base and what is the typical pattern of production from
a gas field? What does the unconventional gas boom in the United States mean for
the rest of the world? Are we headed for a global gas glut? What role will gas play
in the future energy mix? And how might the way gas is priced change?
All these questions and many others are answered in WEO-2009. The data are
extensive, the projections more detailed than ever and the analyses compelling.
For more information, please visit our website: www.worldenergyoutlook.org
Order from our website: www.iea.org/books

or e-mail: books@iea.org
International Energy Agency

9, rue de la Fdration - 75739 Paris Cedex 15 - France
Tel +33 1 40 57 66 90
TheParis-based International Energy Agency is an intergovernmental body committed to advancing security of energy
supply, economic growth and environmental sustainability through energy policyand technology co-operation. It was
founded after the oil supply disruptions in 1973-1974 and consists of 28 industrialised countries, all members of the
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
World
Energy
Outlook
RELEASE
10 November 2009
T
A
B
L
E
International
Energy Agecny
O
F
C
O
N
T
E
N
T
S
PART A
GLOBAL ENERGY
TRENDS TO 2030
PART B
POST-2012
CLIMATE POLICY
FRAMEWORK
PART C
PROSPECTS FOR
NATURAL GAS
PART D
ENERGY PROSPECTS
IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
ANNEXES
GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
IMPLICATIONS OF CURRENT ENERGY POLICIES
IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS ON ENERGY INVESTMENT
CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ENERGY OUTLOOK
ENERGY AND CO2 IMPLICATIONS OF THE 450 SCENARIO
THE 450 SCENARIO AT THE SECTORAL LEVEL
COSTS AND BENEFITS IN THE 450 SCENARIO
FUNDING LOW-CARBON GROWTH
COUNTRY AND REGIONAL PROFILES IN THE 450 SCENARIO
OUTLOOK FOR GAS DEMAND
10
GAS RESOURCES, TECHNOLOGY AND PRODUCTION PROFILES
11
OUTLOOK FOR GAS SUPPLY AND INVESTMENT
12
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
13
PROSPECTS FOR NATURAL GAS PRICING
14
OVERVIEW OF ENERGY TRENDS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
15
ASEAN-4 COUNTRY PROFILES
16
ANNEXES
The Online Bookshop
All IEA publications may be bought

online on the IEA website:
w w w. i e a . o r g / b o o k s
You may also obtain PDFs of
all IEA books at 20% discount.
Books published before January 2008
- with the exception of the statistics publications can be downloaded in PDF, free of charge
from the IEA website.
IEA BOOKS
Tel: +33 (0)1 40 57 66 90
Fax: +33 (0)1 40 57 67 75
E-mail: books@iea.org

9, rue de la Fdration
75739 Paris Cedex 15, France
fer!
f
Special o
Buy 3 IEA books and

get a FREE electronic version
of our forthcoming
IEA Scoreboard 2009!*
*offer expires October 15th 2009

Climate Change Excerpt

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Climate Change Excerpt

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

international energy agency

agence internationale de lenergie

How the Energy Sector can Deliver

OECD/IEA, October 2009

IEA member countries:

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

It carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among twenty-eight

n To promote rational energy policies in a global context through co-operative

n To operate a permanent information system on international oil markets.

n To provide data on other aspects of international energy markets.

n To promote international collaboration on energy technology.

Korea (Republic of)

9 rue de la Fdration, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France

Cap and trade

International sectoral approaches

International sectoral approaches

International sectoral approaches

Cap and trade

Cap and trade

International sectoral approaches

International sectoral approaches

3% increase in emissions from buildings and 9% increase in industry in 450 Scenario by

Additional investment, relative to Reference Scenario, in lowcarbon technologies and

Coal without CCS

Gas without CCS

Coal and gas with CCS

Grammes per kilometre

Billion dollars (2008)

An ambitious, robust global agreement in Copenhagen, which will credibly deliver

A transformation in enduse efficiency investment, to deliver over 7 Gt of abatement by

Coal without CCS

Gas without CCS

Coal and gas with CCS

Grammes per kilometre

Billion dollars (2008)

Additional cumulative investment cost: in excess of $1300billion over 20102020; nearly

Implement an OECDwide emissions trading scheme to deliver emission reductions in

Expand support mechanisms for enduse sectors to encourage investment in energy

Facilitate the transfer of lowcarbon technologies to nonOECD countries, through

Additional investment in lowcarbon technologies and energy efficiency of close to

Coal without CCS

Gas without CCS

Coal and gas with CCS

Grammes per kilometre

Billion dollars (2008)

Additional cumulative investment cost: in excess of $520billion over 20102020;

Additional investment in lowcarbon technologies and energy efficiency of $70billion in

Coal without CCS

Gas without CCS

Coal and gas with CCS

Grammes per kilometre

Billion dollars (2008)

Additional cumulative investment cost: nearly $500billion over 20102020; in excess of

Total investment in the 450 Scenario of nearly $1300billion in lowcarbon power

Additional investment in lowcarbon technologies and energy efficiency of $17billion in

Coal without CCS

Gas without CCS

Coal and gas with CCS

Grammes per kilometre

Billion dollars (2008)

Additional cumulative investment cost: close to $90billion over 20102020; $280billion

Total investment in the 450 Scenario in excess of $200billion in lowcarbon power

Additional investment in lowcarbon technologies and energy efficiency in excess of

Coal without CCS

n To promote rational energy policies in a global context through co-operative

n To promote international collaboration on energy technology.