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Vietnams China factor

Vietnams 12th National Party Congress is scheduled
for early 2016, but relations with China, the South
China Sea issue and questions over the countrys
future leadership could mean a delay
CARLYLE A THAYER

SEPTEMBER 2015 - GOVERNMENT AND GOVERNANCE,

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS | ASIA, EAST ASIA, SOUTHEAST
ASIA

PHOTO: Thanh Nam

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Next years National Congress is not expected to significantly alter

Vietnams current policy of proactive international integration, but the
question of Vietnams future leadership is still in the balance, writes Carlyle
A Thayer.

About the Author

Carlyle A Thayer
The Vietnam Communist Party (VCP) is scheduled to hold its next national party
congress reportedly in early 2016. There are signs, however, that consensus has
not been reached on a number of issues including the South China Sea and
relations with China and the selection of Vietnams future leadership. This could
result in a rescheduling of the congress until a later date.
Vietnam holds national party congresses every five years. A typical conference
lasts five days and is attended by around 1400 party delegates representing
Vietnams 63 administrative units (58 provinces and five centrally-controlled
municipalities), party organisations in the central government, and the Vietnam
Peoples Army.
A national party congress has five main duties: it approves the party Secretary
Generals Political Report, adopts Vietnams Socio-Economic Plan for the next
five and 10 years (2016-2025), revises the partys platform, amends Party
Statutes and, most importantly, elects the new Central Committee.
This year a new rule was introduced that curtailed the powers of party delegates
in selecting members of the new Central Committee. In the past party delegates
were entitled to nominate from the floor of congress additional candidates for
selection to the Central Committee to the official list approved by senior party
leaders. At the last party congress several persons nominated by party delegates
were elected to the Central Committee.

Carlyle A Thayer is Emeritus

Professor, The University of
New South Wales at the
Australian Defence Force
Academy, Canberra. He holds a
PhD in International Relations
from ANU.

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At the 12th National Congress all candidates for the new Central Committee must
be approved by the outgoing Central Committee before their names are placed
on ballot papers. On the last day of the congress the new Central Committee will
hold its first plenary meeting and elect the new Politburo and then select one of
the Politburo members as party Secretary General.

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The Central Committee is required by Party Statutes to convene at least twice a

year and it is not uncommon for the Central Committee to meet more often.
However, in 2014 the Central Committee met only once. This was most likely a
sign of deep divisions over South China Sea policyand relations with
Chinafollowing the crisis over Beijings deployment of a mega oil-drilling platform
in disputed waters during May-July.
Preparations for the 12th National Party Congress have been very muted
compared to the past eight congresses held since reunification. The Vietnamese
media has been extremely quiet and reports are only just beginning to appear
that confirm preparations for the congress are proceeding. No dates have been
officially announced.
Normally draft policy documents such as the Political Report and Socio-Economic
Plan would have been quietly released to special focus groups for discussion and
comment. After fine-tuning the draft policy documents then would be released to
the public for comment. For example, the draft Political Report and the ten-year
Socio-Economic Reportfor the 11th National Party Congress held in January
2011 were released on April 20, 2010 or nine months prior to the congress. If the
12th National Congress is to meet early next year Vietnam has only four months
to complete this process.
It is also significant the VCP Central Committee, which met in May this year,
discussed the composition of the next Central Committee in general terms. Future
meetings are reportedly planned for October and December. In March,
Vietnamese defence sources privately revealed to the author that the new
Defence White Paper, due for release this year, will be postponed until after the
12th Congress.

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9/09/2015

Vietnams China factor - Policy Forum

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Image by Helene C. Stikkel via Wikimedia Commons.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Soldiers_of_Vietnam_People%27s_Army.jpg

What explains these developments unusually quiet preparations for the national
congress, limited reporting of the results of May Central Committee plenum, and
postponement of the Defence White Paper? The most likely explanation is an
overlap of two contentious issues the China factor (President/General Secretary
Xi Jinping reportedly will visit Hanoi in October or November) and the selection of
Vietnams new leadership.
Current VCP rules do not permit a person to hold more than two terms in office.
VCP rules also require officials to retire at the age of 65. Taking both rules into
account nine members of the current sixteen-member Politburo should retire at
next years congress. This means that Vietnams President Truong Tan Sang,
Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong,
among others, will retire from their current posts.
However, there is an exemption to the mandatory age retirement in special cases.
It is strongly rumouredthat Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung is seeking to
become the next party Secretary General and will ask for an exemption. This is
unprecedented in Vietnamese politics.
Dung would bring unparalleled economic and international experience to the post
of party Secretary General as a result of his two terms as prime minster. Dung is
not likely to let ideology bind his hands in dealing with China. He was outspoken
during last years oil rig crisis in defending Vietnamese sovereignty and raising
the possibility of taking international legal action against China.
Dung has widespread support among the members of the Central Committee but
the current Politburo is deeply divided. Not only are personal rivalries at play, but
there are differences over how to manage relations with China and the United
States. Vietnam expects to host visits by both Xi Jinping and President Barack
Obama later this year.
While the 12th National Congress is not expected to alter significantly Vietnams
current policy of proactive international integration, the question of Vietnams
future leadership is still in the balance.
This article is a collaboration between Policy Forum and New Mandala, the
premier website for analysis on Southeast Asias politics and society.
Note: This article was amendedon 9 September to reflect that the Vietnam
Communist Party held its 11th plenum from 4-7 May this year.

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