Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Johan Gott
Megatrends
Stability &
global
orientation
Industrialization
& population
concentration
Birth rate,
immigration,
aging
Economic
Power Shifts
Social and
Cultural
Economic
Demographic
Political
Shifting
economic
influence
Resource
consumption
Well-being
and quality
of life
Shifting
Consumer
Demographics
Science,
Engineering
and
Technology
Custodianship
Innovation,
substitutes &
recycling
Resource
Availability
2,155
1,598
2010
2050
1,692
1,225
1,341 1,296
1,022
751
738 719
590
345
China
India
Rest of
Asia
Africa
USA &
Canada
447
Latin
America
Related Insights
World population is projected to grow
nearly 10% by 2020 and 35% by 2050
Feeding nearly 2 billion additional
people adequately represents a
fundamental global challenge
According to the UN, most of the growth
will occur in 3 regions: Africa, India and
Asia (despite Chinas leveling growth);
these regions of fastest growth include
some of the poorest countries in the
world
By 2050, the population of the US and
Canada will grow between 0.6% and
0.7%, while Europe and China will
decline by 0.06% and 0.09%
respectively
Europe
3
89%
82%
2010
2050
77%
87%
79%
82%
73%
66%
58%
49%
52% 51%
31%
India
Rest of
Asia
Africa
39%
China
Related Insights
USA &
Canada
Latin
America
Europe
5
100
100
29
24
70
60
22
27
50
40
30
20
10
0
9
9
14
17
9
10
19
11
2010
US
Western Europe
Related Insights
By 2020, Chinas and other emerging markets
share of global financial assets will reach
~36% from the current ~21%
In purchasing power parity terms, China will
surpass the United States in 2016-17
GDP growth rates in India and China are
slowing to 5-6% per year, creating new internal
economic and political challenges
The likely continued decline of the dollars preeminence is expected to coincide with a move
to a multi-currency global system
As China continues to grow in economic and
geopolitical power, potentially destabilizing
tensions with its neighbors are likely to rise as
well
2020
Japan
Other developed
China
Other emerging
1. Assumes consensus GDP forecasts for individual countries and that emerging markets currencies appreciate vis--vis the US dollar
Source: DNI, Nalilord
while in the long perspective, this is far from new but rather a
return to the old world order
Sources: Angus Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics (Paris: OECD Development Center Studies, 2003), Table 8b, Share of World GDP; Coming of Age: The rich nations no
longer dominate global production, The Economist, January 19, 2006; Emerging economies: Climbing back, The Economist, January 19, 2006;
Related Insights
664
680
525
341
338
322
313
181
138
Asia
Africa
USA &
Canada
Latin America
Europe
8
India
Africa
Latin America
Developed
Nations
Increased appetite for meat, especially in East Asia, increases the demand for
grain by 100%
Source: FAO, USDA, A.T. Kearney
Water
Hydropower
production,
Oil sands
extraction
Energy
Biofuels, Ethanol
Land
(Food)
10
2010
2030
2,416
2,214 2,206
1,837 1,835
1,300
932
691
China
Source: EIU
India
690
Africa
856
586
Latin
America
USA
Related Insights
Europe
11
Megatrends - conclusion
Shifting Consumer
Demographics
Shrinking Resource
Availability
Challenges and
opportunities
A.T. Kearney is a global team of forward-thinking, collaborative partners that delivers immediate, meaningful
results and long-term transformative advantage to clients.
Since 1926, we have been trusted advisors on CEO-agenda issues to the worlds leading organizations across
all major industries and sectors. A.T. Kearneys offices are located in major business centers in 39 countries.
Americas
Atlanta
Calgary
Chicago
Dallas
Detroit
Houston
Mexico City
New York
San Francisco
So Paulo
Toronto
Washington, D.C.
Asia Pacific
Bangkok
Beijing
Hong Kong
Jakarta
Kuala Lumpur
Melbourne
Mumbai
New Delhi
Seoul
Shanghai
Singapore
Sydney
Tokyo
Europe
Amsterdam
Berlin
Brussels
Bucharest
Budapest
Copenhagen
Dsseldorf
Frankfurt
Helsinki
Istanbul
Kiev
Lisbon
Ljubljana
London
Madrid
Milan
Moscow
Munich
Oslo
Paris
Prague
Rome
Stockholm
Stuttgart
Vienna
Warsaw
Zurich
Middle East
and Africa
Abu Dhabi
Dubai
Johannesburg
Manama
Riyadh
14