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2013.7.1
20131
CFA
hfj-sh@cfa-china.org.cn
CFA China
06
13
19
25
33
38
41
45
GIPS
48
GIPS
51
54
56
58
60
62
64
CFACEO
John Rogers, CFA
CFA
CFA
CFA
CFA
CFA
,CFA
CFA
Paul Smith
CFA
CFA
,CFA
http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/cfm.v24.n1.9
,CFA
102002
10
(ETF)
Casey
2011
32%2009
2007
Casey
Kevin
Quirk
Quirk
Quirk
10
an
Casey Quirk96
20112.46
21
PAAMCOLisa
Fridman, CFA,
Cerulli Associates
20152000
Shiv
TanejaCerulli
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Quirk
ETF
CerulliETF
201210
1.3
2000
1100
20126
tors
(defined-contribution
Towers Watson
schemes)
Mercer
(target-date
funds)
Andrew
Drake,
CFA,
P-Solve
ETF
2003
White
Mercers
Andy Barber
Drake
roderWellcome
Trust
Barber
6%7%
1.5%Brown
1%
300
1.5%
BP
BP
Brown
vestors
Brown
Bill White
Garret-Cox
10
Amin RajanCREATE-Research
CREATE-Research29
28925.2
7%10
27%
35%21%
10%
Inalytics
4Rajan
Rick di Mascio
CREATE-Research
58%
41%
40%38%
Alliance Trust
35%
28
Katherine
Garrett-
ASIP
Quirk
Cox,
Bob Jenkins201210CFA
Rajan
Garrett-Cox
eralETF
Quirk50
10
2002
Hodgson
Towers Watson
1
10
2
3%-4%10
10
10
2.0?
2008Fred
win2411
Bob DiamondLIBOR
Good-
Kenichi Watanabe
Prince
Houston
GroupMarylin
Prince
11
10
2.0
IgniteSarah Dudney
Houston
10
Dudney
CFA 2013 ()
CFA
15
Wayne
Gretzky
GMOJeremy Grantham
FidelityNed Johnson
12
http://www.cfainstitute.org/learning/products/publications/contributed/Pages/frontier_
market_equity_investing__finding_the_winners_of_the_future__summary_.aspx
MSCI
12
MSCI
WDI
2112008117
42
802080
MSCI24
13
21
GCC
MSCI
63%22%
5%10%
GDP
26%7%
25%42%
1.4
2.6%10%
26%
31%
40%
1996
IFC
20
IFC
21
2009
MSCIRussell
14
GDP4200
7000
2000~2009
GCCGCC
GDP4.4%
2.2%
4.5%GDP20
17
20
10.3%
12.2%
8.6%7.3%
7.2%IMF
2015GDP
7.2%7.0%
6.9%6.8%
14%
15
46%43%36%
2070
GDP
45%
GDP2000
200945%
5%~10%
200938%
20002009
GDP
20.9%20.6%
EAFE4%18%
14%
15
2011
2010
Mo Ibrahim Foundation
16
201112
GCC
10500
20
262%MSCI
277%MSCI
EAFE66%
50033%
18.2%
20.8%18.3%15.8%
(Heritage Foundation)
10
20111236
GCC
500
OECD
0.68MSCIMSCI
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20060.40.
40%-50%
20%
GDP
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2011
12MSCI-GCC
1997
8.0MSCI
10.7EAFE12.3
200812
13.9
26%1996
19%
0.5%2.5%
17
210
10100
CFA 2013 ()
CFA
1934
18
Jonathan Barnes
CFA Institute Magazine, March/April 2013
http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/cfm.v24.n2.7
Robert Arnott, Chairman and CEO of Research Affiliates
,CFA
Research
Affiliates
CFA2011
CFA
30
19
3%
30
3%TIPS
0.5%
1.5%
3.5%
0.5%
3%
3%
5%
20
5%
5%
20002030
4%2%
4%4.3%
4.3%
1%
3%
3%
1%
nal
4%
2.4%
3%
2009
2011
21
5%2001
Presidents
Letter
(Portfolio
Management)
30
1%2%
6%
5%
22
30
1988
(Ef-
CFA2001
ficient Frontier)
2011
2000
23
25
CFA 2013 ()
CFA
(Bill Sharpe)
24
Eugene F. FamaUniversity of Chicago Booth School of
BusinessRobert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance
Robert Litterman
Financial Analysts Journal
65CFA2012569
Merton Mill-
erLester Telser
Benot Mandelbrot
25
Jim MacBeth1973
Fischer Black
26
CAPM
Myron ScholesMike
Jensen
2008
TIPS
25%
2.5%
7%8%3%
Volcker
Rule
27
Ken
French
3%
97%
3%
97%
28
20
1992
6CAPM
CRSP
1960
1970
1980
4%
1992
0.5%1.5%
1992
1%
20
1993
/7
29
covariation
variance
Beta
50
30
Daniel Kahn-
2008
2008
2008
31
2008
1,500
25,000
CFA
2007
32
CFA
20
GDP
33
3%5%
PPI
1985
28
1995
24
16000
PPICPI
1995
2008
-8.2%
2010
201171718
2008
20092011
19.2%13%PPI0
20092010
7.5%
34
20117
10%
25%
20%
5%
15%
0%
10%
-5%
5%
0%
-10%
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
Jan-00
Jan-99
Jan-98
Jan-97
Jan-96
PPI
2013
35
2008
7.4%7.6%
23%
32GDP155%
3%
2013
201339
36
9.6%GDP
GDP
2013
2013
2013
37
CFA
38
GDP
3004
-1
GDP4PMI
425
201330
40
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IPO
IPO
AMSCI
1-2
300
10
+13YoY300
62
-1YoY
4Q12-16
2013
39
A
A
quality growth
40
QDII(equity fund)
(FOF)(long short strategy hedge fund)
,CFA
fat
tail
big tail
41
pattern
5.
6.
2-3
1. 2008
2.
3.
4.
42
1/2
1/81/4
3/4*1/8,
1
1 3 1 3 3 1
1
= + + + = 8 =
3
8 4 8 4 4 8
2
1
4
vs.
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)
1
92
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rebalance
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43
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1
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xx=0
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2%50
44
,CFA
2001
(ED)
19921999
(MD)
45
2007
(UBS)(FICC)offer
2007
offer
UBS
(carry cost)
(Direc-
tor)
46
2009
(DDM)BS
20
2-3
CFA
CFAMBA
CFA
2011CPI
CFA
CFA
CFA
8%
2011
CPI67
2011
2012
CFA
2009
47
GIPS
CFA,CIPM,CAIA
Director of GIPS,Asia Pacific Region()
CFA Institute()
48
GIPS
CFA
dards)CFA
GIPS
ment Inc.)
Provision)
CFA
Advisors)
CFA
(Re-
quest-for-ProposalRFP)
CFA
GIPS
GIPS
GIPS
GIPSGIPS
CFA
GIPS
GIPS
GIPS
error
2012
GIPS
GIPS
cor-
GIPS
(GIPS)
GIPSCFA
GIPS
GIPS
GIPSGIPS
GIPS
GIPS
GIPS
Martin
Matsui
GIPS
GIPS
GIPS
GIPS
49
GIPS
GIPS
GIPS
GIPS
GIPS
GIPS
2010GIPS201111
20101231
GIPS
2010
GIPS
GIPS
GIPSGIPS
GIPS
www.gipsstandards.org
37GIPS
50
51
20032010
2003
3%
97%
52
CSMAR
7200
10326
5510
1
2
CFA 2013 ()
CFA
53
Javier Estrada/Javier Estrada IESE
Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vol. 24, No. 3 (Summer 2012):1925
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1745-6622.2012.00386.x/abstract;jsessionid=B1D8023E0F18CC7E730D
F55BEB218E97.d03t01 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2161184
Natalie Schoon, CFA CFA Digest, February 2013, Vol. 43, No. 1:6567
http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/full/10.2469/dig.v43.n1.31
1
2
3
112
54
GDPGDP
8.5%
100PE
PE2006
20106358%
7.3%7.3%
PE
PE
CFA 2013 ()
PE
CFA
19272011
12.8%
9.5%
1121900-2011
1970-2011
Datastream
1995-1999
8.3%2000-2004
55
FOF
(FOF)
56
35%
85%
16
184
(FOF)2004
(FOF)
1445
(FOF)
2004200910126
archBarclayHedgeMorningstar
CISDMMSCIEurekaHedge
FOF
SEC
CFA 2013 ()
CFA
72120
57
58
CFA 2013 ()
2010117201111
CFA
7500
24
59
CATFIN
CATFIN
GDPCATFIN
CATFIN
GDP
CATFIN
60
CATFIN
CATFIN
CATFIN
CATFIN
Hill
CATFIN
Annals of Mathematical
Statistics 1975
CATFIN
CATFIN
CATFIN
CATFIN
CATFIN
19731200912
GDP
CATFIN
Datastream
CATFIN
GDPCATFIN
GDP
CATFIN
CATFIN
GDP
CATFIN
CATFIN
CATFIN
GDPCATFIN
CATFIN
512
CATFIN
61
100
62
20123
14
21
CFA 2013 ()
CFA
20072009
63
Hedge Fund Market Wizards: How Winning Traders Win. 2012. By Jack D. Schwager,
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., www.wiley.com.
Amazon: http://amzn.com/1118273044
Reviewed by Mark S. Rzepczynski
Book Review Editor: Martin S. Fridson, CFA
http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/full/10.2469/br.v8.n1.10 :
64
Schwager
Jack D. Schwager
15
Ed
Joel
Thorp
Schwager
Ed Thorp
Colm
OShea
10
21
Schwager
Ray Dalio
Jami Mai
Steve Clark
Schwager
JamiMai
Ray Dalio
65
(VaR)
Jaffray WoodriffBill
James
Mi-
chael Lewis
66
Schwager
Daniel Kahneman
Schwager80
Malcolm
Gladwell
Schwager
Schwager
40
CFA 2013 ()
CFA
500
Schwager
67
(CFA
Institute)
3000(CFA charter-holders)3
(CFA Candidate)20
1.
2.
3.
hfj-sh@cfa-china.org.cn
1.
2.
3.
hfj-sh@cfa-china.org.cn
hfj-sh@cfa-china.org.cn
68