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1, FEBRUARY 2007
179
I. INTRODUCTION
180
can be divided into homogenous subareas. The second assumption is that all component loads for any given are uncorrelated
stochastic variables. In general, the assumption on stationary
linear independence
is correct, although it is argued in [10] that high stationary correlation
exists between the load profiles, particularly within the same
profile. To my knowledge, the only evident stationary dependence exists among symmetrical three-phase loads. Some synchronized loads (street lighting, automatically controlled loads,
etc.) do not increase loads covariance if they are randomly distributed. If they are concentrated, they can be treated as specific load profiles among which some do not have variance at
all (street lighting).
Although statistical properties of loads are a frequent research
subject, there is a lot of confusion on their independence and
statistical distribution. A load is a variable that depends on two
argumentsspace and timeand can be analyzed along each
one. Load analysis at fixed space (load area) is quite simple and
reduces to time series analysis, which cannot give answers on
the load stationary dependence and statistical distribution. On
the contrary, load analysis at a fixed time is very complicated,
as it is very difficult to create a large number of coincident comparable homogenous loads, necessary for statistical inference.
Such effort was made in [11] with the conclusion that peak loads
are independent. In order to get comparable loads, some authors
[12] normalize the loads dividing them by their peaks or averages, which drastically changes the load variance and the probability density function. Having in mind that load data represent
their hourly (rarely 15-min) averages, which also drastically reduces load variance, some of the existing arguments on load statistical properties are not correct.
For accurate evaluation of load-dependent energy losses in a
distribution system element (transformer, the section of a secondary line, etc.) in period , it is necessary to calculate the
integral
(2)
,
, and
are the voltage, active, and reactive
where
component of the load flow respectively, measured at the same
end of the elementinput or output. Here, I assume that the
voltages are constant in time (but different at nodes, as suggested
in [1]). With this simplification, (2) reduces to the calculation of
load squared integral. Here, I will demonstrate how to do it for
the active component; the calculation is the same for the reactive
one.
squared is
The expected value of
where
is the mean and
the variance of
. For
and
, resulting from and consumers
two loads
, respectively, and
, we can write
181
(3)
Components of each load need to be mutually independent but
and
(some componot necessarily resulting loads
may be a part
nents may be a part of both loads, or whole
).
of
Ratio can be determined through the corresponding energies. It is easy to prove that two homogeneous loads with equal
means at any time have equal expected energies in the same
period. For long periods, expected and actual energies can be
equated. Also, energies are available and the most reliable data
on loads.
and
denote the corresponding energies in period ,
If
i.e.
(4)
and
than
is
times greater
and
TABLE I
), ORIGINAL (I ) AND FITTING VALUES (I ), THE
AVERAGE LOAD (P
FITTING ERROR IN %, AND AVERAGE LOSS FACTOR (L
) FOR 11 LOADS
(5)
and
, we get
(7)
or
(9)
or
(10)
where
,
, and
.
and are constants for given homogeneous loads or LP.
and
The proof follows directly from (5) and (9). If
change times, so will
, and (9) remains unchanged.
Formula (9) is a second-order parabola with constant coeffiand
cients, which can be determined from two LDCs [
(11)
where represents
for very large loads, as the second
(we denote it
addend in (11) can be neglected for large
182
by
(12)
(16)
Inserting three-phase variables in (16) and adding it to (15),
we get
(17)
If we compare expressions in parenthesis in (14), (15), and
(17), we see that average loss factor depends on the phase system
to which the loads are connected. The general equation for it is
close to one.
(18)
, 3, or 6, for
, 3, or 3 0 (for single-phase,
where
three-phase, or three-phase system with neutral conductor, respectively). If (9) is divided by the square of the yearly peak
of the element and by
, the result is
load
the traditional loss factor
(19)
and
Average
or
is required for
data on reactive energy do not exist.
(13)
calculation, because
(14)
where
is line resistance
,
is the power factor,
is the th average load (kW) in , is the actual
phase voltage (kV) at the same point on section where
is identified, and is length of the th line section (km).
To get the loss formula for three-phase lines with neutral conby line to
ductors, we replace 2 by 3 in (14), phase voltage
, and average phase load by
line voltage
three-phase average load
Neutral Losses
(15)
where
.
As we see, formulae (19) and (1) are quite different, and there
is no constant parameter (like ) that can be used together with
load factor to determine the loss factor.
Equation (19) is in contradiction with existing practice of assigning a unique loss factor to each load. The difference between
loss factors for single-phase lines and three-phase lines with
neutral conductor is very large for small loads. Unfortunately,
load records available to the author are all for large loads, with
a peak of 172 kW for the smallest among them. To illustrate the
difference between the loss factors, ten simulated homogeneous
load curves for a year period in 15-min intervals were generated,
and
with peaks ranging from 18 to 1075 kW and
kW. Simulation data highly conform to (9), with deviations less than 0.2%. A MATLAB load simulation program
with explanations is given in the Appendix. Using the simulated
data, above three values for average and traditional loss factors
are given in Table II.
The difference is caused by the component of losses, which
depends on variance and can be neglected for large loads, but
for loads below a few hundred kW of the yearly peaks, as are
loads of distribution transformers and secondary lines, it can be
shows that this
significant. The sixth column in Table II
part of losses for loads below 150 kW may range from 9% up to
). Obviously,
100% or more (calculated by
the use of any method of loss calculation in low voltage distribution network in which load variance is neglected may reduce
calculated energy losses to half of the true value.
183
TABLE II
AVERAGE (P
) AND PEAK LOADS (P ), AVERAGE LOSS FACTORS (L
;L
VARIANCE (LB ), AND TRADITIONAL LOSS FACTORS (LS F ; LSF
;L
; LSF
(20)
is the load loss at rated load (kW),
is the rated
where
is the actual line-to-line voltage (kV), and
voltage (kV),
is the transformer rated load (kVA).
For single phase transformer, the formula is quite similar
(21)
is not used in above equations, they should be transIf
formed as (17) into
(24)
Formulae for
and
of reactive load are quite similar, replacing by in (24). The power factors for different
LP usually differ, and loss computation for compounded loads
are used (except for
is much simpler if formulae without
calculation).
Equation (23) can be used to define a third way for calculating coefficient . If compounded load consists of only two
and , their sum
is also
independent homogenous loads
homogeneous, and we can write (omitting )
(22)
(25)
over period
is
(23)
where
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Considering that
is a vector sum of three-phase currents,
,
is specific, and the above
sequence
relation does not apply to it. It can be shown that
Fig. 2. Test radial network.
(26)
The coefficient
is determined for a sufficiently
large load of constant expected value in (
and
). For variable loads represented by LDC,
is higher and depends on , , and
. If
,
depends only on , with good approximation by
coefficient
(27)
, approximate
is 1.305 and accurate 1.308,
For
with difference less then 0.23%.
for loads with
is more
Determination of
complicated and is not considered here.
If (32) is divided by , the result is average value of in
and
or
(28)
The term in the last parenthesis depends on and is a constant for given , with dimension of the current. Let us denote
it by , and we will have
(29)
where
and
.
Formula (29) gives minimal average current in a neutral conductor in period , since the balanced connection of loads on
all phases has been assumed, and is entirely the result of the
stochastic nature of loads. If expected values of phase loads are
unbalanced, this current greatly increases, which is not considered here. For simulated homogeneous loads used in this paper,
, and let
,
, then
, and
. For
, we
will have
.
TABLE III
RESULTS OF THREE APPROXIMATE ALGORITHMS COMPARED
WITH ACCURATE (LFP) ONE
185
TABLE IV
LOADS AND LINE RESISTANCES OF LEVEL 5
Fig. 3. Same load as a function of time recorded in 15-min (thin line) and 1-h
(bold line) intervals.
have
,
,
, and ,
, , and
have
,
,
. Second moments are
,
,
near 100 kW, the mixed moment is
computed for DLCs of
. Also,
, average loads of level 5 and
line resistances
in
, at load level 5 and voltage
drop of 5% are given in Table IV (reactance neglected); quoted
voltage drops are obtained changing line resistances by factors:
5, 2.5; 1, 0.5; 0.1, 0.05 for load levels 1, 5, and 50, respectively.
The error in computing total losses by algorithm NEW is less
than 0.4% in all test cases, and the error for losses and current in neutral conductor is less than 2.25% and 1.35%, respectively. For large loads (level 50), all algorithms have small errors, but for small loads (level 1), computed total losses by algorithm T&D ORG underestimate the true ones by nearly 30%.
Test results show two equally significant contributions of the
proposed method to loss calculation accuracy: through accurate
calculation of both, load squared integral (compare T&R and
T&R ORG) and voltages at network nodes (compare NEW and
T&R).
186
and
Fig. 4. Components of the current in neutral conductor.
(32)
shapes and repeat many times. According to simulations, 1-h interval is not too long for 1-yr recording period.
B. MATLAB Simulation Program
VI. CONCLUSION
In addition to improved accuracy of total loss calculation,
the presented method introduces several new results. They are:
1) current and losses in the neutral conductor, 2) exact value
of traditional loss factor, and 3) load homogeneity testing. Besides, the proposed algorithm is very fast and can be used for
real-time network analyses. Input data on loads are just energies consumed. However, application of the method is conditioned on accurate determination of parameters and for all
component loads and corresponding mixed statistical moments.
% Probability vector
;
% Frequency distribution vector
;
% Number of electrical appliances with average installed
capacity Pa (kW)
APPENDIX
;
,
for
;
,
for
;
and
% Load curve-matrix
(30)
where , , and
Expected value of
end;
% Peak load;
;
% Energy during
intervals;
where
,
, 1, 2, 3, and
is the variance of the
neutral, and
of the phase currents.
If the phase currents are mutually independent and their
means and variances are equal, we have
(31)
As we can see,
is entirely a variance, since
balanced three-phase system.
in
end;
187