Journal of Safety and Environment

15 1
2015 2
1009-6094 2015 01-0077-07

AHP-
*

Vol 15 No 1
Feb 2015

230026

8 -1 1

3
3

1 2
AHP-

1 3

31

X93

DOI 10. 13637 / j issn 1009-6094. 2015. 01. 016

1 4

1 5

1. 1

21

1 -2

222
35 1 346
3

309

4-5
2005 11 13

9 4 600
6
2006 7 28

7
22
* 2013-07-22


nxmin@ ustc edu cn
2012BAK13B01

1 6

8 31

4 A B
3
C D 1
1. 2

Delphi

77

Vol 15

No 1

1
Fig 1

15 1

System of evaluation indicators

1 7 -2 1

1. 2. 1

78

2015 2

AHP-

Feb 2015

1-9
n

0. 0424 0. 0491 0. 0281 0. 1287 0. 0357

A 3
B1 B2

0. 0078 0. 0355 0. 0044 0. 0025 0. 0083

B3
1 1

0. 0855 0. 1535 0. 0547 0. 0305 0. 0135

0. 0131

3
MATLAB

3. 053 6 0. 38440. 91520. 1211

0. 27060. 64420. 0852

B1 B2 B3 0. 270 6
0. 644 2
0. 085 2

CI 0. 1
n = 3 3 I = 0. 52

CI =

max n
3. 0536 3
=
= 0. 0268
n 1
3 1

CI
0. 0268
C =
=
= 0. 0515
I
0. 52

C = 0. 0515 0. 1
1
Table 1

B2

B3

B1

1 /3

B2

B3

1 /4

1 /6

2. 1

U = u1 u2 u3 =

u1 = u11 u21 u31 =

u2 = u12 u22 u32 =

Scale of relative importance and its meaning

1
3

B i B j
B i B j B i B j

B i B j B i B j

B i B j B i B j

B i B j B i B j

u3 = u13 u23 =

12
13
14
15
u11 = u11
1 u1 u1 u1 u1 =

B i B j

2
4
6
8

B i B j B ji = 1 / B ij

3
Table 3

1. 2. 2

U 3

B1

Table 2

Judgment matrix of the first-grade evaluation indexes

22
23
24
u23 = u21

3 u3 u3 u3 =

5 V = V1 V2 V3

Index of mean random consistence

V4 V5 =

0. 52

0. 89

1. 12

1. 26

1. 36

1. 41

2. 2

B W B = w1 w2

W C

w3 C W iC = w1i w2i

W D

w ni D W ijD = w1ij

W C = 0. 0442 0. 1460 0. 0804 0. 0785 0. 2059

0. 35980. 05680. 0284
W D = 0. 0054 0. 0120 0. 0185 0. 0084 0. 0029

w2ij w nij
2. 3

ij

0. 0201 0. 0529 0. 0578 0. 0152 0. 0142

0. 0112 0. 0345 0. 0205 0. 0233 0. 0128

79

Vol 15

No 1

D
11

r ij
r21ij

ij = r31
ij

n1
r ij
2. 4

r12
ij

r13
ij

r22
ij

r23
ij

r32
ij

r33
ij

r n2
ij

r n3
ij

r1m
ij

r2m
ij

ij
1
2
k
m
X ij = W D ij = x ij x ij x ij x ij C

C
i 4
21

X = x1 x2 x m

X' = x' 1 x' 2 x' m

x' k x' r 1 k

B
2. 6
X = W B
2. 7

r3m
ij

r nm
ij

15 1

m1 r m r
V r

k
1 1k
M x ij = w ij r ij +

n nk
w2ij r2k
ij + + w ij r ij

2. 5

B
i
X i = W C i B

Table 4
B

4 3
Statistical data of the experts evaluation about the three-grade evaluation indicators
C

80

0. 5

0. 4

0. 1

0. 1

0. 6

0. 3

0. 2

0. 7

0. 1

0. 5

0. 4

0. 1

0. 1

0. 6

0. 2

0. 1

0. 6

0. 3

0. 3

0. 5

0. 2

0. 6

0. 4

0. 2

0. 7

0. 1

0. 4

0. 5

0. 1

0. 2

0. 5

0. 3

0. 3

0. 5

0. 1

0. 1

0. 2

0. 6

0. 1

0. 1

0. 6

0. 3

0. 1

0. 4

0. 4

0. 2

0. 3

0. 4

0. 2

0. 1

0. 1

0. 5

0. 3

0. 1

0. 2

0. 5

0. 2

0. 1

0. 1

0. 6

0. 1

0. 2

0. 2

0. 5

0. 2

0. 1

0. 2

0. 6

0. 1

0. 1

0. 1

0. 4

0. 3

0. 2

0. 3

0. 6

0. 1

0. 1

0. 3

0. 5

0. 1

0. 1

0. 4

0. 4

0. 1

0. 2

0. 4

0. 4

0. 2

0. 5

0. 3

0. 2

0. 4

0. 4

0. 3

0. 4

0. 3

0. 3

0. 4

0. 3

0. 2

0. 4

0. 4

2015 2

3. 1
3. 1. 1
D

0. 5 0. 4 0. 1
0
0

0.
1
0.
6
0.
3
0
0

11 = 0. 2 0. 7 0. 1
0
0
0 0. 5 0. 4 0. 1 0
0. 1 0. 7 0. 2 0 0

11
W D = 0. 00540. 01200. 01850. 00840. 0029
M

X11 = W11
D 11 =
0. 5 0. 4 0. 1 0 0

0. 1 0. 6 0. 3 0 0
0. 00540. 01200. 01850. 00840. 0029 0. 2 0. 7 0. 1 0 0 =
0 0. 5 0. 4 0. 1 0
0. 1 0. 7 0. 2 0 0
0. 00790. 02850. 00990. 00080. 0000
3

X12 = 0. 05560. 07230. 01810. 00000. 0000
X13 = 0. 02240. 0423
0. 01030. 00550. 0000
X21 = 0. 03180. 02910. 01340. 00420. 0000
X22 = 0. 0234
0. 11580. 03320. 03350. 0000
X23 = 0. 04260. 16460. 10980. 0428
0. 0000 X31 =
0. 01000. 02630. 01920. 00140. 0000
X32 = 0. 00670. 01130. 0102
0. 00000. 0000
3. 1. 2
B1

0. 0079 0. 0285 0. 0099 0. 0008 0

1 = 0. 0556

0. 0224

Feb 2015

AHP-

0. 0723

0. 0181

W B = 0. 27060. 6442
0. 0852

X = WB =
0. 0030 0. 0048 0. 0015 0. 0005 0. 0000
0. 27060. 64420. 0852 0. 0227 0. 0858 0. 0475 0. 0227 0. 0000 =

0. 0008 0. 0018 0. 0014 0. 0001 0. 0000

0. 01480. 05560. 03080. 01460. 0000
5
3. 1. 4

X' = 0. 11580. 48010. 26600. 12610. 0000

0. 480 1
3. 2

3
5

Table 5

esults of emergency capability assessment of a chemical

industrial park

D1
D2

0. 5

D3
D4

0. 7

D5
D6

0. 6

D7
D8

0. 5

D9
D10

0. 7

D11
D12

0. 5

D13
D14

0. 6

D15
D16

0. 4

D17
D18

0. 5

D19
D20

0. 6

D21
D22

0. 6

D23
D24

0. 6

D25
D26

0. 4

D27
D28

0. 5

D29
D30

0. 4

D31

0. 4

C1

B1

0. 489 8

C2

C3

0. 605 1

0. 495 2

0. 525 5

0. 0423 0. 0103 0. 0055 0

1
C

W =
0. 04420. 14600. 0804

X1 = W1C 1 =
0. 0079 0. 0285 0. 0099 0. 0008 0
0. 04420. 14600. 0804 0. 0556 0. 0723 0. 0181
0
0 =

0. 0224 0. 0423 0. 0103 0. 0055 0

0. 00300. 00480. 00150. 00050. 0000
4

X2 = 0. 02270. 08580. 04750. 02270. 0000

X3 = 0. 00080. 0018
0. 00140. 00010. 0000
3. 1. 3

0. 0030 0. 0048 0. 0015 0. 0005 0. 0000

= 0. 0227 0. 0858 0. 0475 0. 0227 0. 0000

0. 0008 0. 0018 0. 0014 0. 0001 0. 0000

C4

B2

C5

0. 562 4

0. 480 1

C6

C7
B3

0. 405 1

0. 457 4

0. 462 2

0. 439 0
C8

0. 400 7

0. 6
0. 5
0. 6
0. 6
0. 5
0. 5
0. 6
0. 4
0. 5
0. 5
0. 4
0. 5
0. 4
0. 4
0. 4

81

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No 1

3
8
31

2 AHP-

eferences
1 GU Zongqin Development trend of petroleum and chemical
industry of ChinaJ Chemical Techno-Economics
200523 1 4-9.
2 YANG Yumei CHEN Jiaxiang ZHU Qinghua
Study on the development problem of chemical industry park in
ChinaJ Technology Progress and Policy 2004
6 100-102.
3 The National Development and eform Commission
the Ministry of Land and esources the Ministry of Construction The audit notice directory of the development zone in China M Beijing The
National Development and eform Commissionthe Ministry of Land
and esourcesthe Ministry of Construction2007 81-84.
4 WEI Lijun DUO Yingquan YU Lijian

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et al Probe into the main content of safety planning for chemical industry parkJ Journal of Safety Science and Technology
20073 5 16-19.
5 WANG Hongde CUI Tiejun Probability of chainfire accidents originated from the explosion in chemical industry parks
J Journal of Safety and Environment 201111
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6 YUAN Fei WU Yinwen LIU Jian et al
esearch on emergency capability assessment of chemical industrial
park based on improved AHPJ Journal of Safety Science and Tecnology 20095 1 160-164.
7 YU Deli esearch on evaluation of accidents emergency capability
and management of chemical industrial park
D Dalian Dalian University of Science and Technology
2010.
8 YANG Yiling ZHANG Lihua HUANG Baorong
et al The analysis and practical application on self-assessment of disaster emergency capabilities of urbanJ Urban Studies
201017 11 118-124.
9 WU Xinyan GU Jianhua Advance in research on urban
emergency management capability assessment at home and abroadJ Journal of Natural Disasters 200716 6 109-114.
10 TIE Yongbo TANG Chuan ZHOU Chunhua
The application of AHP to emergency response capability assessment in urban disasterJ Journal of Catastropohology 200621 1 8-12.
11 CHI Nana Assessment indexes of city emergency planning institute
D Beijing Capital University
of Economics and Business2006.
12 HE Sha JI Anmin JI ongbin et al Safety emergency response capability evaluation for petroleum enterprises based
on AHP and MDGDMJ China Safety Science Journal
2011 2 41-47.
13 TAN Peicong esearch on comprehensive evaluation of
accidents emergency capability of chemical industrial park
D Chongqing Chongqing University2009.
14 QU Yaogen eseach on whole process emergency response management of chemical industrial park public emergency taking Shanghai chemical industrial park as case
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15 CHEN Guohua JIA Meisheng HUANG
Tingfeng et al esearch on safety guarantee system for
chemical industrial parksJ Journal of Safety and Environment
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16 ZHAO Ling Study on the evaluation of city disaster emergency response capacity D
Ganzhou Jiangxi University of Science and Technology2008.
17 WANG Xia WU Shenhui TAWANA M Met
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2009 1 42-46.
18 SUN Ningning The study of assessment index system on
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Science and Technology2009.
19 ZHAO Ling TANG Minkang Capability evaluation of emergency system against urban disasterJ Occupation
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1 31-33.
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 15 1
2015 2

Journal of Safety and Environment

Science and Technology2008.

21 DUAN Yaxun Study on comprehensive evaluation of emergency capability in petrochemical enterprise
D Shanghai East China University
of Science and Technology2011.

1009-6094 2015 01-0083-05

On the comprehensive emergency probability

of chemical industry park based on the AHPfuzzy evaluation method
ZHANG Shao-gangZHAO MeiNI Xiao-minWANG Hao-bo
ZHANG He-ping
The State Key Laboratory of Fire ScienceUniversity of Science
and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China
Abstract This paper is aimed at bringing about an analytic hierarchy process AHP -fuzzy model and its applications to the emergency probability assessment of chemical industry park It is for the said
research purpose that we have first of all established an evaluation
index system for the assessment in accordance with the principle of
sciencesystem and maneuverabilitywhich consists of three kinds
of indexes at different gradesincluding the three first-grade evaluation indexeseight second-grade evaluation indexes and thirty one
third-grade evaluation indexes In our categoration listthe firstgrade evaluation indexes should include the probability of management and monitoring before the accidentthe promptness of the emergency response and manipulation of available human and material
resources for the safety and saving control in the process of the accidentand the probability of rehabilitation after the actual accident
The second-grade evaluation indexes in our model are made up of the
safety management and the professional training of the accident-fighting human resourcesthe logistic supporting readiness of the accident-fighting material resourcesthe monitoring and warning device
the cooperation potentiality of the commanding and the coordinating
partiesthe on-spot rescue promptnessandfinallythe comprehensive emergency-coping abilities As to the third-grade evaluation
indexesthey may include the rules for safety managementagencies
and planning of emergency responseand still other about 30 evaluation indexes Once all the weighing factors have been worked out according to the theory of AHPit is necessary to establish a comprehensive model of emergency probability based on the method of fuzzy
mathematicswhich has been widely adopted for the time being
Andfinallywe have managed to implement a case study based on
a typical chemical industry park accident with such AHP-Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation technique Thuswe have also made a detailed discussion of thegoodresults we had appreciated by using
the assessment method and the factors affecting the results Thusit
can be concluded that some important indexes have been gained at
thepoorgrade indexes in the assessmentincluding the theoretical and technical supportspublic security and transport conditions
the medical treatment and rescue Andat lastwe have also proposed some useful suggestions on further improvement of the emergency probability of the chemical parks
Key words safety control comprehensive emergency response capability AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method evaluation index system chemical industrial
park
CLC number X93
Document code A
Article ID 1009-6094 2015 01-0077-07

Vol 15 No 1
Feb 2015

116024

CFD Fluent

L max D max

L max D max

L max D max L max D max

X937

DOI 10. 13637 / j issn 1009-6094. 2015. 01. 017

1-2

3-6

CFD

7-8
9 10-11 12 13-14

13-14

Fluent

1
2 2 3 1
76 m 26 m 30 m 1 2 3
15. 7 m 24 m
1. 75 m

1 D
* 2013-08-30


yujianliang@ dl cn
2012231008

83