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September 17, 2015

Vol 5.Issue XIV

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Italy Paddy Sales Sluggish in New Crop Year

Due to Low Availability of Stocks
Sep 16, 2015

Italian paddy sales in the first week of the new crop year 2015-16 (September 1, 2015 - August
31, 2016) have remained sluggish due to low availability of stocks, according to local sources.
Around 25,421 tons of paddy were sold during September 1-8, 2015, down about 41.5% from
around 43,459 tons sold during the same time last year. Since most the beginning stocks of 201415 crop year were exhausted, only a few available quantities from the last crop year were sold.
About 12,455 tons of Long A varieties, around 10,585 tons of Long B varieties, around 1,716
tons of round varieites and 665 tons of medium varieties are sold during the week.
Official quotations on Italian grain exchanges have not yet started, But as per unofficial
quotations in Vercelli on September 15, round varieties were quoted at 30-32 euros (about $
33.8-36 ) per ton; Long A varieties Augusti and Loto varieties were quoted at 30 euros (about $
33.8 ) per ton, Sant'Andrea was quoted at 40 euros (about $ 45), and Volando and Carnaroli were
quoted at 55-60 euros (about $ 61.9-67.6) per ton.

Pakistan Basmati Rice Export Prices

Increase Slightly in August 2015
Sep 16, 2015

Pakistan basmati rice export prices have increased in August 2015 after declining continuously
for three months, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).The increase
can be attributed to an expected surge in basmati rice exports to Iran as the Middle East nation is
understood to have agreed to lift of sanctions on rice imports from Pakistan. Also the exporters
are lobbying for a rice-energy barter trade between the two nations. Last three months, prices
declined due to expected higher production in the country.
In August 2015, Pakistan's basmati rice export prices have increased by about 2% to around
$888 per ton from around $868 per ton in July 2015, and down about 38% from their year-ago
levels of around $1,430 per ton. In terms of local currency, average Pakistan basmati rice prices

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in August 2015 increased by about 2% to around PKR 89,914 per ton from around PKR 87,759
per ton in July 2015, and down about 38% from around PKR 144,430 per ton in August 2014.

Average Pakistan basmati rice prices stood at around $918 per ton in the first eight months of
2015 (January - August), down about 33% from around $1,359 per ton recorded during the same
period last year.
Average basmati rice prices increased between July and September 2014 and peaked to around
$1,450 per ton in September 2014 due to fears of a fall in production as floods affected large area
of basmati rice acreage in Punjab. However, the overall production of basmati rice has not been
significantly affected by floods.
Currently, Pakistan basmati growers have been urging the government to provide adequate
support to increase competitiveness of Pakistan's basmati rice in the global market.

Conab Estimates Brazil 2014-15 Paddy Rice

Production to Increase Despite Fall in
Acreage
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Sep 16, 2015

Brazils National Grains Supply Company (Conab) has forecasted the country's 2014-15 paddy
rice production at around 12.449 million tons (around 8.6 million tons, basis milled), up about
2.7% from around 12.121 million tons (around 8.24 million tons, basis milled) in 2013-14.
Conab has estimated Brazil's 2014-15 paddy rice acreage at around 2.295 million hectares, down
about 3.3% from around 2.373 million hectares in 2013-14.
Most of the decline in acreage is expected in the North/Northeast region. Rice acreage in the
North/Northeast regions is estimated at around 738,200 hectares, down 8.7% from around
808,400 hectares in 2013-14. On the other hand, paddy rice acreage in the key rice growing
Centro-Sul (Center-South) region is projected at 1.557 million hectares in 2014-15, slightly
down from around 1.565 million hectares in 2013-14.
Average rice yield in Brazil in 2014-15 is projected at around 5.4 tons per hectare, up about 5.7%
from around 5.11 tons per hectare recorded in the previous year.
USDA estimates Brazil MY 2015-16 (April March) paddy rice production at around 11.765
million tons (around 8 million tons, basis milled), down about 6% from an estimated 12.5 million
tons (around 8.5 million tons, basis milled) in MY 2014-15. It estimates Brazils 2015-16 paddy

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rice acreage to decline slightly to around 2.3 million hectares. USDA estimates Brazil to export
around one million tons of rice and import around 550,000 tons of rice in 2015.

Asian Rice Quotes Mixed Today

Sep 16, 2015

Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for parboiled rice by about $5 per ton to around $340$350 per ton today. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice, 100% broken
rice and Jasmine rice by about $5 per ton each to around $325-$335 per ton, $305-$315 per ton
and $450-$460 per ton respectively. India rice sellers lowered their quotes for parboiled rice by
about $10 per ton to around $350-$360 per ton. Pakistan rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5%
broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $310-$320 per ton.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $335 - $345 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $325 - $335 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. India
5% rice is indicated at around $375 - $385 per ton, about $65 per ton premium on Pakistan 5%
rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $325 - $335 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $320- $330 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around
$340 - $350 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $290 $300 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton, down about $5 per ton from
yesterday. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $350- $360 per ton, down about $10 per ton
from yesterday and about $65 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around
$415 - $425 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $305 - $315 per ton, on par with Vietnam
100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday.

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India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $300 - $310 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on
Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $275 - $285 per ton.

India Forecasts 2015-16 Kharif Rice

Production to Decline Slightly from Last Year
Sep 16, 2015

The government of India forecasts 2015-16 kharif (June - December) rice production at around
90.6 million tons, slightly down from around 90.86 million tons in 2014-15.
Total rice planted area to the 2015-16 kharif rice crop stood at around 36.841 million hectares as
of September 11, 2015, slightly up from around 36.651 million hectares planted during the same
time last year. Planting operations have been so far satisfactory despite concerns of weaker rains
in the monsoon season (June-September) due to an El Nino weather pattern.

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The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted the El Nino pattern to reach to
moderate to a strong one during the monsoon season (June September). It has forecast a 16%
deficit in the rainfall during the second half (August-September) of the monsoon season (JuneSeptember).
Concerns of a slight reduction in kharif rice output may push up both domestic and export prices
in the next few months.
The government forecasts the total kharif food grain output at around 124.05 million tons.
The government estimates 2014-15 rice production to decline about 2% y/y to around 104.8
million tons due to below average rains during the kharif main rice crop planting process (June September 2014) in many key rice growing areas and unseasonal rains and hailstorms during
February and March 2015.

Italian Expo 2015 Highlights Rice Growing

Cultures in Various Countries
Sep 16, 2015

Various rice growing countries, including Bangladesh, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Sierra
Leone have exhibited their rice booths in the Italian rice expo, which is taking place in Milan.
A rice booth will demonstrate how rice grows, including how the water covers and protects the
seedlings. It also conveys the feel of vastness, the colors and scents of rice fields to visitors.
Anyone visiting the rice booths will have a chance to get a glimpse of rice growing cultures in
various countries. They can also understand how the farmers in those countries changed their
cultivation patterns with time.
Within the booths in the expo, visitors can experience a rural setting featuring different varieties
of rice growing in fields. A kaleidoscopic effect is created with mirrors in the booths.

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Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Pull Back as Market Reassesses
Fundamental Outlook
Sep 16, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Nov delivery settled 10.5 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at
$12.865 per cwt (about $284 per ton). The other grains finished the day in the red; Soybeans
closed about 0.2% lower at $8.8725 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.3% lower at $4.8825 per
bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.2% lower at $3.8600 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded higher Wednesday as investors eyed a jump in oil and the beginning of the
Federal Reserve's key two-day meeting. The energy sector briefly rose more than 2.5% to lead
S&P advancers. Weekly crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, supporting further gains in oil
prices. Crude earlier surged more than 5.5%, while brent was temporarily up more than 7%
above $50 a barrel. The Federal Open Market Committee could raise short-term interest rates for
the first time in nine years in its two-day meeting that began Wednesday. All eyes are on

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Thursday afternoon's expected statement and press conference. Wall Street is divided over
whether the central bank will decide to raise rates. Stocks rallied more than 1% Tuesday, more
than recouping Monday's mild losses.
The Dow Jones industrial average joined the other major averages to end within 10% of its 52week high, out of correction territory. Other analysts said the rally meant the Fed would hold off
on tightening Thursday. European shares rose, with the STOXX Europe up nearly 1.5%. Asian
stocks ended the session on a firm note. China's benchmark Shanghai Composite index staged a
late-day rally to close almost 5% higher adding to upbeat sentiment in global stock markets.
In late-morning trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 92 points, or 0.56%, at
16,692. The S&P 500 traded up 11 points, or 0.58%, at 1,989, with energy leading seven sectors
higher and health care, financials and telecommunications declining. The Nasdaq traded up 14
points, or 0.30%, at 4,875. Gold is trading about 1.5% higher, crude oil is seen trading about
4.6% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.4% lower about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Tuesday, there were 417 contracts traded, down from 907 contracts traded on Monday. Open
interest the number of contracts outstanding on Tuesday increased by 442 contracts to
10,700.

ABARES Estimates Australia 2015-16 Paddy

Rice Production to Decline Sharply on Low
Acreage
Sep 16, 2015

Australia's paddy rice production in MY 2015-16 (April 2015 - March 2016) is estimated to
decline to around 655,000 tons (around 517,450 tons, basis milled), down about 10% from an
estimated 724,000 tons (around 570,380 tons, basis milled) in MY 2014-15, according to data
from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).In
its September crop outlook report, the ABARES attributes the decline in paddy rice production
to a 7% y/y decline in planting area to around 65,000 hectares as well as a 7% y/y decline in
average yield to around 10 tons per hectare.
Total summer crop production is estimated to have declined by 7% y/y in 201415 to 4.39
million tons, due to decline in production of all summer crops, including rice. The area planted to
summer crops declined by 17% y/y to around 1.24 million hectares. Rice is grown in the states of
New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland.

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The
weather report issued by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) on 27 August 2015 suggests that
wetter than average conditions were more likely for most cropping regions in New South Wales,
Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia during September - November 2015. It expects
close to average conditions across most cropping regions in Queensland. It is reported
thatAugust rainfall was average to above average in most major summer cropping regions in
northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. This rainfall increased the level of upper
layer soil moisture, encouraging crop planting.The BOM maintains that El Nino weather pattern
is likely to bring average winter and spring rainfall in eastern Australia.

Government of Thailand Estimates Paddy

Rice Production to Reach Lowest Level in 19
Years
Sep 16, 2015

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The Thai Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) has estimated that Thailand's 2015-16 paddy
rice production may plunge to the lowest level in 19 years due to the extending drought
conditions and water shortages, according to Bloomberg.
The OAE told reporters that the Thai paddy rice production may fall to 22.98 million tons in
2015-16, down about 30% from around 32.62 million tons last year.
Farmers are likely to be restricted to plant rice between November 1, 2015 to April 30, 2016 due
to water shortages, according to the Agriculture Minister. Cabinet is yet to make an official
announcement regarding the same.
Lower production in Thailand and other Asian nations due to the drought inducing El Nino
pattern is expected to tighten global rice supplies further impacting prices. A potential fall in
output could gradually boost prices by up to $20 a ton by the end of this year, a Bangkok-based
trader was quoted. Domestic prices may climb to 9,000 to 10,000 baht ($278) a ton from around
8,000 now," he added.

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Meanwhile, Thailand has about 13.5 million tons in stocks and the government targets to export about
10 million tons of rice this year.

European Paddy, Rice Quotes Show Slight

Movements in First Week of New Crop Year
Sep 16, 2015

European paddy quotes in the first week (September 1-8) of the crop year 2015-16 (September August) showed some slight movements with opposite trends in different countries, according to
the European quotations supplied by the European Union (EU) on May 12, 2015.
SPAIN - Japonica paddy remained firm at 288 euros (about $ 324 ) per ton on September 8.
Indica paddy did not move from 283 euros (about $ 318) per ton. Milled Japonica rice quoted
586 euros (about $ 660) per ton on both weeks.
PORTUGAL - Portuguese rice received no quotations.
GREECE On September 8, medium paddy variety received no quotations, while Long paddy
remained unchanged at 470 euros (about $ 529) from last week. Indica paddy received no
quotations.
ROMANIA - Japonica paddy prices were declined slightly to 318 euros (about $ 358) per ton
from 324 euros (about $ 365) per ton on September 1. Indica paddy quotes were unchanged at
340 euros (about $ 383) per ton quoted on September 1, As for milled rice, on September 8,
Japonica quotes increased to 868 euros (about $ 978) per ton from 759 euros (about $ 855) per
ton on September 1. Indica milled rice quoted increased to 858 euros (about $ 966) per ton on
September 8, from 761 euros (about $ 857) per ton on September 1.
BULGARIA - Japonica paddy quotations are firm at 294 euros (about $ 331) per ton. Japonica
milled rice prices were unchanged at 872 euros (about $ 982) per ton.
FRANCE - On September 8, round milled rice declined to 550 euros (about $ 619) per ton
from 560 euro (about $ 631) per ton on September 1, as well as Long B that declined from 590
euros (about $ 664) per ton on September 1 to 550 euros (about $ 619) per ton on September 8.
Long A reached 560 euros (about $ 631) per ton on September 8 from 550 euro (about $ 619) per
ton on September 1.

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Indonesia May Import Rice if Needed, Says

Vice-President
Sep 16, 2015

The government of Indonesia may decide to import rice this year if the impact of El Nino on rice
production is severe, Bloomberg quoted the country's Vice-President as saying.
He told reporters that government needs to monitor the impact of El Nino on the country's food
production. He also noted that the government should re-evaluate this year's 75 million tons
paddy rice estimate amid extending drought conditions.
The government has so far not imported any rice this year. It is keen on achieving selfsufficiency in rice production and avoid imports this year. Even till recently, the government has
been hopeful of achieving sufficient rice production. However, now the government is likely to
take back its decision on imports.

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Meanwhile, analysts are predicting that Indonesia may have to import about 1.6 million tons of
rice this year to maintain stocks and stabilize prices.
USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36.3 million tons of rice, basis milled (around
57.17 million tons, basis paddy), and import around 1.25 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15
(October - September).

U.S. Rice Industry Opposes Emerging TPP

Deal with Japan
Sep 16, 2015

The U.S. rice industry is opposing the emerging Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal with Japan
and made it clear that they would not support the deal if their demands on tariff free higher quota
and quality access to Japan's rice market are not met, according to Inside U.S. Trade.
The Chief Operating Officer of USA Rice told reporters that they are urging the U.S. Trade
Representative (USTR) to negotiate a better deal for U.S. rice. The U.S. wants Japan to increase
tariff free rice imports from the U.S. to 175,000 tons from the existing 50,000 tons, as well as
provide quality access to its markets (U.S. producers want Japan to allow them to sell directly to
consumers instead of the government agencies).
Japan has been reluctant to increase the quota to 175,000 is negotiating to close at 70,000100,000 tons. Currently it restricts rice imports through a tariff-rate quota set at roughly 682,200
metric tons on a milled rice basis and the U.S. accounts for nearly half the imports. While
imports within the quota are interest free, remaining are subject to a duty rate of 341 yen per
kilogram, or around$3,400 per ton. Therefore the U.S. rice sector says it is unviable for them to
ship rice outside the quota.
Meanwhile, the TPP countries are likely to hold their next meeting on the U.S. during the last
week of September.

PM'S Agriculture Relief Package Does Not

Cover Rice Export Sector, Says REAP
Chairman
Sep 16, 2015

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The Chairman of the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) has expressed
dissatisfaction that the agriculture relief package has not considered the demands of the rice
exporters, according to local sources.
He noted that the Rs.5,000 per acre (around $120 per hectare) subsidy is not sufficient for
basmati rice farmers. He also noted that the government has not mentioned an appropriate
support price for super basmati, whose prices have been declining.
The REAP Chairman also pointed out that the PM did not specify any loan waivers, or refund of
withholding tax to millers and exporters. He noted that the government was also silent on the
withdrawal of 3.5% withholding tax on local purchase of rice.
He also noted that no mention was made regarding research and development in the rice sector.
He reiterated that the country's Rice Research Institutes have not provided new and quality
basmati seed since last 15-20 years.
The Chairman urged the government to consider certain demands such as helping them deal with
shipping companies which increase prices suddenly when new crop receives the market, refund

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of sales tax, enhancing the funds of the Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) to
support the rice exports.
He warned that if these issues are not addressed, rice export trade would witness an alarming
decline and exporters have to struggle to survive.

Global Rice Quotes

September 16th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 350-360

Vietnam 5% broken

325-335

India 5% broken

375-385

Pakistan 5% broken

310-320

Myanmar 5% broken

415-425

Cambodia 5% broken

420-430

U.S. 4% broken 530-540

Uruguay 5% broken

535-545

Argentina 5% broken

530-540

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken

325-335

Vietnam 25% broken

315-325

Pakistan 25% broken

290-300

Cambodia 25% broken 405-415

India 25% broken

340-350

U.S. 15% broken

500-510

Long grain parboiled rice

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Thailand parboiled 100% stxd

340-350

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd

415-425

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 350-360

U.S. parboiled 4% broken

570-580

Brazil parboiled 5% broken

545-555

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 810-820

Vietnam Jasmine

450-460

India basmati 2% broken

NQ

Pakistan basmati 2% broken

NQ

Cambodia Phka Mails

830-840

305-315

Brokens
Thailand A1 Super

Vietnam 100% broken 305-315

Pakistan 100% broken stxd
Cambodia A1 Super

275-285

355-365

India 100% broken stxd 300-310

Egypt medium grain brokens

NQ

U.S. pet food

335-345

Brazil half grain NQ

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

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USDA Estimates 2015 Global Rice Trade to

Decline 2% y/y to 42.5 Million
Sep 16, 2015

In its September Rice Outlook report, USDA forecasts 2015 global rice trade at around 42.5
million tons, down 2% from an estimated 43.4 million tons in 2014, and unchanged from last
month's forecast. USDA expects a 2 million ton or 18% decline y/y in 2015 Thai rice exports and
weaker shipments from Egypt, but says an increase from other countries such as India, Pakistan
and the U.S. may not fully compensate for fall in Thai exports.On the exports side, USDA raised
projections for India rice exports based on shipment pace so far and larger supplies. It however
lowered export forecast for Vietnam and the U.S. based on slow pace of sales. On the imports
side, USDA lowered prospects only for Brazil based on shipment pace.
USDA estimates global rice trade in 2016 at around 42.2 million tons, slightly down from last
month's forecast of 42.3 million tons and estimates 42.5 million tons in 2015. It lowered 2016
export prospects for Myanmar and the U.S, but increased forecasts for India and Australia. It
raised 2016 import forecasts for Indonesia, but lowered for Chile.

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