24/04/2015

AfterObama:NoEasyOutsforPutin

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After Obama: No Easy Outs for Putin

BY ARIEL

COHEN 4/24/15 AT 9:31 AM

UkrainewillremainattheheartoftheconflictbetweentheU.S.andRussiabeyondthe
2016presidentialelection.
Inthepolls,AmericansareunitedonUkraineThemajorityofrespondentssupport
increasedsanctionsontheKremlin.Allofthemajorpresidentialcandidates,saveSenator
RandPaul,takeatoughapproachwithMoscowandsupportarmingUkraine.
TakeHillaryClinton,thepresumednomineefortheDemocraticParty.SheisnotMoscow's
favorite,tosaytheleast.TheRussianmediaaccusesherofmortalsins:toughness,
feminism,politicalcorrectnessandapedanticdisposition.In2014,RussianPresident

VladimirPutinattackedheradhomineminaninterviewwithFrenchjournalists.

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"It'sbetternottoarguewithwomen,"Putinsaid."ButMs.Clintonhasneverbeentoo
gracefulinherstatements....Whenpeoplepushboundariestoofar,it'snotbecausetheyare
strongbutbecausetheyareweak.Butmaybeweaknessisnottheworstqualityfora
woman."
TheClintons'foreignaffairscircleistoughonRussia.ItincludedthelateRichard

Holbrooke,thearchitectofthepartitionofYugoslavia,whowasnosoftieonRussia.
VictoriaNuland,assistantsecretaryofstateforEuropeanaffairs,whogaveoutcookies
ontheMaidanduringtheantiYanukovychdemonstrationsandwhosincehasbeen
demonizedbytheRussiansforheroutspokensupportforUkraine'sindependence,isa
member.ItalsocountsAlexanderVershbow,thecurrentdeputysecretarygeneralof
NATOandaformerU.S.ambassadortoRussia.
Assecretaryofstate,ClintontalkedtoughtoEuropeanleadersabouttheconflictineastern
UkraineandherattitudetowardPutinwasfirm.BorisJohnson,themayorofLondon,
saidthathewasstruckbythepersistencewithwhichshespokeabouthowEurope
mustconfronttheRussianpresident.
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AfterObama:NoEasyOutsforPutin

"HergeneralanxietywasthatPutin,ifunchallengedandunchecked,wouldcontinueto
expandhisinfluenceintheperimeterofwhatwastheSovietUnion,"Johnsonsaid.
ClintontoldJohnsonthatBritonsshouldbelessdependentonRussianhydrocarbonsand
thattheymustseekalternativesourcesofenergy.
HowtoconfronttheRussianenigmaisnotanewsubjectforClinton.InhermemoirHard

Choicesshewrites,"FormanyyearsIhavespentalotoftimethinkingabouthowto
understandPutin."

Clinton'slastmemoassecretaryofstateinJanuary2013warnedPresidentBarack
ObamaaboutPutin'sambitions.SheassessedPutinasathreat"tohisneighborsandthe
globalorder,"cautioningthat"difficultdayslayaheadandthatourrelationshipwith
Moscowwouldlikelygetworsebeforeitgotbetter."
ClintonencouragedObamatopushthepausebuttononthe"reset"policythatsheandthe
presidenthadlaunchedin2009.Shecautioned,"Don'tappeartooeagertoworktogether.
Don'tflatterPutinwithhighlevelattention.Strengthandresolveweretheonlylanguage
Putinwouldunderstand."
Thepresidentignoredheradviceinitially,acceptingPutin'sinvitationforapresidential
levelsummitinMoscowinthesummerof2013.ThevisitwascanceledaftertheKremlin
gaveasylumtothedefectorEdwardSnowden.InClinton'sopinion,Putinis
"reclaimingtheSovietEmpireandcrushingdomesticdissent."
ItwillnotbeanyeasierfortheKremlinwiththeRepublicans.GovernorJebBushhasnot
officiallyannouncedhiscandidacy,butheisknowntocriticize"navet"and"passivity"
inforeignpolicy,includingonUkraineandRussia.Hisbrother,formerPresidentGeorge
W.Bush,haslittleenthusiasmwhenitcomestoPutin.
JebBush'sforeignpolicyteamislikelytoincludekeyplayersfromhisbrother'steam,
includingformerSecretaryofStateCondoleezzaRiceandformerDeputyDefenseSecretary
PaulWolfowitz,hardlyKremlinfavorites.
IfnotBush,thenwho?TheanticommunistCubanAmericansenatorsMarcoRubioand
TedCruz,bothmembersoftheSenateForeignRelationsCommittee,supportlethalaidto
UkraineandhavesharplycriticizedRussia.RubioandCruzidolizeRonaldReaganandhis

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AfterObama:NoEasyOutsforPutin

policiesofpeacethroughstrength.CruzsaidthattheU.S.hasan"obligation"toarm
Ukraine,muchtoMoscow'schagrin.
AnothercandidatefortheRepublicanpresidentialnominationisWisconsinGovernorScott
Walker,whoalsofavorsarmingUkraine.
TheoddmanoutisSenatorRandPaul.OneForbescommentatornotedthatPaulhas

beenalloverthemaponUkraineandsomeofhisstatementstendtocontradict
previousones.HisRussiaadvisersareAmbassadorRichardBurtandDimitriSimes,
presidentoftheCenterfortheNationalInterest.Theseforeignpolicyrealistssupport
warmerrelationswithRussia.
Thus,shortofasurprisingPaulvictoryin2016,Russiaisfacingaunitedfrontof
RepublicanandDemocraticcandidateswhoallsupporttherestorationofUkraine's
sovereigntyandterritorialintegrity.Untilthen,sanctionsareunlikelytodisappear.
Putin'snationallytelevisedfourhourcallinshowonApril16showedhisstiffupperlip
anddefianceagainsttheU.S.,buttherealityofisolationandsanctionsoverUkrainewill
taketheirtoll.However,therearenoeasyoutsforMoscoweitherfromRepublicansor
Democrats.OnUkraine,Americansareunited.

ArielCohen,Ph.D.,isdirectoroftheCenterforEnergy,NaturalResourcesand
GeopoliticsattheInstitutefortheAnalysisofGlobalSecurityandprincipalof
InternationalMarketAnalysis,Ltd.ThisarticlefirstappearedontheAtlantic
Councilsite.
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