Volume 6, Issue 8

September 18, 2015

THREE-WAY TIE REMAINS AS DEBATE ON

ECONOMY DISAPPOINTS
For more information about any of the issues discussed below please contact Adam Daifallah, at (514) 316-7089
or at adaifallah@hatleystrategies.com.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Globe & Mail Leaders Debate a snooze fest; no clear winner
Statistical tie between parties could last until election day
Harper gains with budget surplus, loses on niqab ban
Far left Leap Manifesto puts Mulcair in awkward spot

ANALYSIS
It was debate night Thursday as Stephen Harper, Thomas Mulcair, and leader Justin Trudeau met in to discuss the
economy, but a game changer it wasnt. The leaders stuck to their talking points, scripted speeches and rehearsed
zingers. The debate was poorly moderated and rather boring. With the parties neck and neck in the polls, no one
seems willing to take any risks. Its quite telling that the candidate mentioned the most online during the debate
was Green Party Elizabeth May, who was not invited by the Globe and Mail. May forced her way into the discussion
by answering the moderators questions through tweets. The parties have been in a persistent three-way tie since
August. With almost exactly a month left, the only two things that may break the status quo is one party making a
drastic change in their campaign tactics or making a debilitating mistake. The results of the election at this point are
wildly unpredictable.
Despite the debate, this week was a busy one. The Conservatives received an early present when the federal
government announced a surprise $1.9 billion surplus. The government had expected to run a $2 billion deficit for

Volume 6, Issue 8
September 18, 2015

the 2014-15 period, with a surplus only occurring in the 2015-2016 fiscal year. The Tories boasted this figure as
proof that only they could be trusted to properly manage the economy. Mulcair used the figure to show that the
NDPs plan to keep a budget balanced while still increasing program spending was as attainable as ever. Justin
Trudeau spun this news the other way, claiming that the surplus was built on the backs of middle class Canadians.
The surplus put into question Trudeaus plan to run deficits and whether such stimulus spending is necessary.
There is one group of Canadians that would like to see more public money spent. A group of celebrities have come
together with a laundry list of demands for the next Canadian government. It was put together by Naomi Klein,
David Suzuki, Neil Young, Leonard Cohen, Donald Sutherland, Rachel McAdams, Pamela Anderson, and recently
crowned Mrs. Universe, Ashley Callingbull.
The Leap Manifesto demands drastic changes in the structure of Canadas economy, like ending the use of fossil
fuels within 35 years. They want international trade deals torn up and believe Canadians should only buy food from
their local farms (which should work well in our winters). If you wouldnt want it in your backyard, they say, you
shouldnt want it in your country. As some pundits have pointed out, taking this literally would mean Canada
shouldnt have any highways or sewage treatment plans but we digress. While the group has said these values
represent the NDP, party leader Thomas Mulcair who has been steadily pushing his party to the middle of the
political spectrum has yet to endorse the manifesto.
Stephen Harper cant catch a break with the courts. This week the Federal Court of Appeals dismissed the
governments case on face coverings during citizenship ceremonies. The government outlawed the religious
garment in 2011, but the Federal Court ruled it to be unlawful. The Conservatives are promising to bring the case all
the way to the Supreme Court and that they will reinstate the ban within 100 days of taking office.
Could Canada be part of a new trade deal before the election ends? Harper is hoping so. Negotiations on the TransPacific Partnership, covering 12 countries, will continue on September 26. The deal would affect everything from
the auto industry to dairy farmers and open up the Canadian economy to new markets. If the negotiations finish on
better terms than they have in past meetings, a deal could be signed shortly.
Former Prime Minister Jean Chrtien joined Justin Trudeau on the campaign trail earlier in the week and focused
their sights on the NDPs Thomas Mulcair. The former Liberal PM attacked Mulcair on the Clarity Act and his belief
that a simple 50%+1 majority would be enough to break up the country, reminding the crowd how close the results
were during the 1995 referendum. While most people forget, Mulcair was actually one of Quebecs strongest
advocates for remaining within Canada in 1995, and had earlier worked for an English rights group called Alliance
Quebec.

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Volume 6, Issue 8
September 18, 2015

THE QUEBEC ANGLE

Could Justin Trudeau lose his own riding? A poll commissioned by the NDP says so, and its generating a lot of buzz.
According to the CROP polling firm, Anne Lagac Dowson, a former journalist who is running with the NDP, has 46%
support, while Trudeau holds 35%. Despite this, we should remain skeptical. The poll was based on 375 phone calls
in the urban, multi-ethnic riding of Papineau and has a margin of error of 5%. Trudeau won with a plurality of over
4,000 votes in the last election.
One of the last heavyweights in the Bloc Qubcois hasnt given up hope. Louis Plamondon, the 72-year old MP for
BcancourNicoletSaurel who has won his seat in every election since 1984 still thinks he can win. Plamondon
resisted the Orange Wave in the 2011 election and is the only Bloc winner from that year to run for re-election.
Pollsters are currently predicting that the Bloc will be completely wiped off the map, including leader Gilles
Duceppe in his own riding. The Bloc leader pushed back at any notion of this, claiming the election is just getting
started!

For any additional questions please contact: Adam Daifallah, Partner

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