BA1040 May 2012

THIS PAPER IS NOT TO BE REMOVED FROM THE EXAMINATION HALLS

University of London
BSc Examination 2012
BA1040
(BBA0040)
+Enc

Business Administration
Business Statistics
Date tba: Time tba

DO NOT TURN OVER UNTIL TOLD TO BEGIN

Time allowed: TWO hours
Answer FOUR Questions
All questions carry equal marks
Electronic calculators may be used. These should be of a hand-held non-programmable (where
relevant) type and the name and model should be stated CLEARLY on the front of your answer
book.

Appropriate statistical tables are attached, you may not necessarily need to use them all.
PLEASE TURN OVER

University of London 2012

UL12/

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BA1040 May 2012

Question 1:

a) What is the difference between sampling with replacement and without replacement?
Give an example.
5 marks
b) What is the difference between probability and non-probability sampling? Give an
example
5 marks
c) In regression analysis, what is meant by the method of least squares?
5 marks
d) What are the differences between a Type I error and a Type II error? Give an example.
5 marks
e) What is the difference between parametric and non-parametric statistical methods? Give
an example.
5 marks
Sub-Total: 25 marks

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BA1040 May 2012

Question 2:
Crazy Dave, a well-known baseball analyst, wants to determine which variables are important
in predicting a teams wins in a given season. He has collected data related to wins, earned
run average (ERA), and runs scored for the 2008 season (see below):
Team
Baltimore
Boston
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland
Detroit
Kansas City
Los Angeles Angels
Minnesota
New York Yankees
Oakland
Seattle
Tampa Bay
Texas
Toronto
Arizona
Atlanta
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati
Colorado
Florida
Houston
Los Angeles
Dodgers
Milwaukee
New York Mets
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
St. Louis
San Diego
San Francisco
Washington

League
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Wins
68
95
88
81
74
75
100
88
89
75
61
97
79
86
82
72
97
74
74
84
86

E.R.A.
5.13
4.01
4.09
4.45
4.90
4.48
3.99
4.18
4.28
4.01
4.73
3.82
5.37
3.49
3.98
4.46
3.87
4.55
4.77
4.43
4.36

Runs
Scored
782
845
810
805
821
691
765
829
789
646
671
774
901
714
720
753
855
704
747
770
712

Hits
Allowed
1538
1369
1469
1530
1541
1473
1455
1563
1478
1364
1544
1349
1647
1330
1403
1439
1329
1542
1547
1421
1453

Walks
Allowed
687
548
457
444
644
515
457
403
489
576
626
526
625
467
451
586
548
557
562
586
492

Saves
35
47
33
31
34
44
66
42
42
33
36
52
36
44
39
26
44
34
36
36
48

Errors
100
85
108
94
113
96
91
108
83
98
99
90
132
84
113
107
99
114
96
117
67

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

84
90
89
92
67
86
63
72
59

3.68
3.85
4.07
3.88
5.08
4.19
4.41
4.38
4.66

700
750
799
799
735
779
637
640
641

1381
1415
1415
1444
1631
1517
1466
1416
1496

480
528
590
533
657
496
561
652
588

35
45
43
47
34
42
30
41
28

101
101
83
90
107
85
85
96
123

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BA1040 May 2012

Below is the excel output of the model developed to predict the number of wins based on
ERA and runs scored:
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.92320741
R Square
0.852311923
Adjusted R
0.841372065
Square
Standard Error
4.405807111
Observations
30
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

2
27
29
Coefficients

Intercept
E.R.A.
Runs Scored

79.7718417
-17.64487887
0.102716029

SS
3024.59932
524.1006801
3548.7
Standard
Error
11.59984327
1.828349093
0.011989049

MS
1512.29966
19.4111363

t Stat
6.876975821
-9.650716562
8.56748787

F
77.90886822

Significance F
6.11172E-12

P-value
2.17647E-07
3.02745E-10
3.50588E-09

a) State the multiple regression equation for the above model (define your Y and X values
clearly)
5 marks
b) Interpret the meaning of the slopes in this equation.

5 marks

c) Predict the number of wins for a team that has an ERA of 4.50 and has scored 750
runs.
5 marks
d) Is there a significant relationship between number of wins and the two independent
variables (ERA and runs scored) at the 0.05 level of significance?
5 marks
e) Interpret the R square statistic above.

3 marks

f) Why would the adjusted R-square be superior to the R-square?

2 marks
Sub-Total 25 marks
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BA1040 May 2012

Question 3:
A survey conducted by the National Post entitled send your infants to nursery reports that
children (aged 3 months 5 yrs) that attend a play group or nursery scheme three or more
mornings a week achieve higher academic levels in subsequent years than those who were
kept at home or babysat in a relatives or friends home.
a) What information would you want to know before you accepted the results of this survey?
12 marks
b) Assume you are in charge of this study. Briefly explain how you would organise this
research exercise. You should mention something about the sampling frame, the sampling
method, the survey questions, and the hypotheses you would test.
13 marks
Sub-Total: 25 marks
Question 4:
The following data represent total revenues (in millions of constant 2000 pounds) by a car
rental agency over the 11-year period between 2000 and 2005: 4.0, 5.0, 7.0, 6.0, 8.0, 9.0, 5.0,
2.0
a) Compute the 3 year moving averages for this annual time series.

5 marks

b) Plot the original figures and the (MA(3)) figures in a rough diagram and use it to discuss
the trend.
5 marks
c) Interpret your results in simple management terms.

5 marks

d) What other method(s) could you use to forecast the figures for 2006.

5 marks

e) Explain what is meant by the Classical Multiplicative Time-Series Model. How and why
would one want to deseasonalise a variable?
5 marks
Sub-Total 25 marks

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BA1040 May 2012

Question 5:
A survey was conducted for drivers of Sedans in 2009 on fuel consumption. The
overall results per gallon (MPG) of 2009 Sedans priced under 20,000 are as
follows:
27; 31; 30; 28; 27; 24; 29; 32; 32; 27; 26; 26; 25; 26; 25; 24
a) Compute the mean, median and mode

3 marks

b) Compute the variance

5 marks

c) Compute standard deviation

5 marks

d) Compute range

5 marks

e) Compute the coefficient of variation

5 marks

f) Are the data skewed? If so how?

2 marks
Sub-Total: 25 marks

Question 6:
Approximately 5% of US families are millionaires (i.e. have a net worth in excess of
$1 million). However, 30% of Microsofts 31 000 employees are millionaires. If
random samples of 100 Microsoft employees are selected, what proportion of the
sample will have?
a) between 25% and 35% millionaires?

5 marks

b) between 20% and 40% millionaires?

5 marks

c) more than 40% millionaires?

5 marks

d) If samples of size 50 are taken, how does this change your answers to (a)-(c)?
5 marks
e) Explain intuitively why the normal distribution which is a continuous distribution
can be used to make inferences about a dichotomous random process (such as
the one described above).
5 marks
Sub-Total: 25 marks

END OF PAPER

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