Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Joshua Gans
University of Melbourne
March, 2010
Cooperation with
established firms
Competition with
established firms
Research Agenda
•Questions:
- What are the gains from trade between start-ups and established firms?
- What impediments exist that might prevent these gains from being
realised?
- What are the welfare consequences of these choices?
This Paper
•Strategic bypass
- Negotiations may require disclosures that harm the start-up’s competitive
position (i.e., allowing incumbent imitation); so much so that they avoid the
negotiation option -- Arrow’s disclosure problem (Anton & Yao, 1994).
•Formal evaluation
- Requires a dynamic model of successive innovation
Outline
Technological Dynamics
•Here, modifications
- Remove static competition effects to focus on dynamics in
Schumpeterian, ‘winner-take-all’ or ‘for the market’ competition.
- Incorporate ideas markets
- Model dynamic capabilities (firms may not be long-lived)
• Incumbent (I)
- There is a single producer of the new product who can earn per period monopoly
rents, Π, until displaced.
• Innovation leader
- For each product generation only one firm conducts R&D
- Innovation leader drawn from pool of firms including the current incumbent
(O’Donoghue, Scotchmer and Thisse, 1998)
- I can be the innovation leader and prolong incumbency
- Otherwise, label leader as ‘entrant’ or E.
Innovation Rate
Innovation Rate
Innovation
Leader
chosen
Innovation Rate
E
Innovation
Leader
chosen
Innovation Rate
Choose
E φ E ∈[φ ,1]
Innovation
Leader
chosen
Innovation Rate
Choose
E φ E ∈[φ ,1]
Innovation
Leader
chosen
Innovation Rate
Choose
E φ E ∈[φ ,1]
Innovation
Leader
chosen
I Choose
φ I ∈[φ ,1]
Innovation Rate
Choose
E φ E ∈[φ ,1]
Innovation
Leader
chosen
I Choose
φ I ∈[φ ,1]
No cost to R&D
Negotiating for the Market 16/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion
Innovation Rate
Choose
E φ E ∈[φ ,1] φ̂ E = 1
Innovation
Leader
chosen
I Choose
φ I ∈[φ ,1]
No cost to R&D
Negotiating for the Market 16/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion
Innovation Rate
Choose
E φ E ∈[φ ,1] φ̂ E = 1
Innovation
Leader
chosen
I Choose
φ I ∈[φ ,1] φ̂ I = φ
No cost to R&D
Negotiating for the Market 16/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion
Commercialisation Choices
Commercialisation Choices
Entrant
Innovates
Commercialisation Choices
Competition
Entrant
Innovates
Commercialisation Choices
I loses
Competition
monopoly
profits
Entrant
Innovates
Commercialisation Choices
I loses E
Competition
monopoly becomes I
profits (earns Π)
Entrant
Innovates
Commercialisation Choices
I loses E
Competition
monopoly becomes I
profits (earns Π)
Entrant
Innovates
Cooperation
Commercialisation Choices
I loses E
Competition
monopoly becomes I
profits (earns Π)
Entrant
Innovates
I retains
Cooperation monopoly
profits
Commercialisation Choices
I loses E
Competition
monopoly becomes I
profits (earns Π)
Entrant
Innovates
I retains E remains
Cooperation monopoly E
profits (earns τ)
Dynamic Capabilities
Dynamic Capabilities
Prior Activity
Dynamic Capabilities
Prior Activity
Production
Only
Dynamic Capabilities
Prior Activity
Production
Only
Innovation
Only
Dynamic Capabilities
Prior Activity
Production
Only
Innovation
Only
Production &
Innovation
Negotiating for the Market 18/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion
Dynamic Capabilities
Production
Only
Innovation
Only
Production &
Innovation
Negotiating for the Market 18/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion
Dynamic Capabilities
Production I not an
Only innovation leader
Innovation
Only
Production &
Innovation
Negotiating for the Market 18/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion
Dynamic Capabilities
Production I not an
Only innovation leader
Innovation E as innovation
Only leader
Production &
Innovation
Negotiating for the Market 18/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion
Dynamic Capabilities
Production I not an
Only innovation leader
Innovation E as innovation
Only leader
Dynamic Capabilities
Probability of
Prior Activity Example
becoming Leader
Production I not an
Only innovation leader
Innovation E as innovation
Only leader
Dynamic Capabilities
Probability of
Prior Activity Example
becoming Leader
Production I not an
σ p ∈[0,1]
Only innovation leader
Innovation E as innovation
Only leader
Dynamic Capabilities
Probability of
Prior Activity Example
becoming Leader
Production I not an
σ p ∈[0,1]
Only innovation leader
Innovation E as innovation
Only leader
σ i ∈[0,1]
Dynamic Capabilities
Probability of
Prior Activity Example
becoming Leader
Production I not an
σ p ∈[0,1]
Only innovation leader
Innovation E as innovation
Only leader
σ i ∈[0,1]
Competition
Competition
Innovation
Leader
Competition
Innovation
Leader
Competition
Innovation Capabilities
Leader Stage
I acquires innovation
I and production
capabilities
Competition
Innovation Capabilities Research
Leader Stage Stage
Competition
Innovation Capabilities Research
Leader Stage Stage
Competition
Innovation Capabilities Research
Leader Stage Stage
or
Competition
Innovation Capabilities Research
Leader Stage Stage
or
E acquires innovation
E capability and I
acquires production
capability
Competition
Innovation Capabilities Research
Leader Stage Stage
or
E acquires innovation
I earns Π and E
E capability and I
chooses ϕE in each
acquires production
period until innovates
capability
Competition
Innovation Capabilities Research Competition
Leader Stage Stage Stage
or
E acquires innovation
I earns Π and E
E capability and I
chooses ϕE in each E replaces I
acquires production
period until innovates
capability
Competition
Innovation Capabilities Research Competition
Leader Stage Stage Stage
or
E acquires innovation
I earns Π and E
E capability and I
chooses ϕE in each E replaces I
acquires production
period until innovates
capability
Continuation Payoffs
Incentives to Innovate
Incentives to Innovate
Incentives to Innovate
Incentives to Innovate
Incentives to Innovate
I (1 − σ ip )δ (V − VI )
I
i
Incentives to Innovate
I (1 − σ ip )δ (V − VI )
I
i
Incentives to Innovate
I (1 − σ ip )δ (V − VI )
I
i
φ̂ I = φ
VE = 1
Δc (
Π 1 − δ (1 − φ ) + δ (σ i − φσ ip ) )
VI = 1
Δc (
δΠ 1 − δ (1 − φ ) + δ (σ i − φσ ip ) σ p )
V =
I
i 1
Δc ( 2
(
Π 1 − δ 1 − φ (1 − σ ip ) − σ )σ )
i p
V ≥ VI + VE ⇒ 1 − φ (1 − σ ip ) ≥ σ i + σ p
I
i
Licensing
Innovation Capabilities Research
Leader Stage Stage
or
E acquires innovation
I earns Π and E
E capability and I
chooses ϕE in each
acquires production
period until innovates
capability
Licensing
Innovation Capabilities Research Negotiation
Leader Stage Stage Stage
or
E acquires innovation
I earns Π and E
E capability and I
chooses ϕE in each E negotiates with I
acquires production
period until innovates
capability
Negotiations
Joint Payoff from Cooperation
Joint Payoff from Competition
(
⇒ (σ p − σ i )δ V − VE − VI ≥ 0
I
i
)
Negotiating for the Market 25/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Licensing
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion
Continuation Payoffs
VE = (1 − φ E )δVE + φ E (τ + σ iδVE )
φ̂ E = 1 φ̂ I = φ
(
(σ p − σ i )δ 1 − φ (1 − σ ip ) − σ i − σ p ≥ 0 )
Competition
VIi < VI + VE
σp Licensing
Licensing
Competition
VIi ≥ VI + VE
σi σ ip
Negotiating for the Market 28/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Licensing
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion
Competition
VIi < VI + VE
σp Licensing
Licensing
Does high σi
drive Competition
VIi ≥ VI + VE
competition?
σi σ ip
Negotiating for the Market 28/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Licensing
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion
Intuition
Restructuring
σ ip
Restructuring
no gains VIi < VI + VE
from trade
σp
Licensing
Competition
VIi ≥ VI + VE
σi σ ip
Negotiating for the Market 30/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion
Negotiations
Π − τ + σ ipδV + (1 − σ ip )δVI + τ
I
i
Joint Payoff from Cooperation
Joint Payoff from Competition
Negotiations
Π − τ + σ ipδV + (1 − σ ip )δVI + τ
I
i
Joint Payoff from Cooperation
Joint Payoff from Competition
⇒ (σ ip − σ i )δ (V − VI ) ≥ σ pδVE
I
i
Negotiations
Π − τ + σ ipδV + (1 − σ ip )δVI + τ
I
i
Joint Payoff from Cooperation
Joint Payoff from Competition
⇒ (σ ip − σ i )δ (V − VI ) ≥ σ pδVE
I
i
1 − σ ip > 1 − σ i − σ p
Negotiations
Π − τ + σ ipδV + (1 − σ ip )δVI + τ
I
i
Joint Payoff from Cooperation
Joint Payoff from Competition
⇒ (σ ip − σ i )δ (V − VI ) ≥ σ pδVE
I
i
Continuation Payoffs
VE = (1 − φ E )δVE + φ Eτ
φ̂ E = 1 φ̂ I = φ
φ̂ E = 1 φ̂ I = φ
(
σ ip − σ i − σ p 1 − δ (1 − φ )(1 − σ ip ) ≥ 0 )
φ̂ E = 1 φ̂ I = φ
(
σ ip − σ i − σ p 1 − δ (1 − φ )(1 − σ ip ) ≥ 0 )
Sufficient condition:
φ̂ E = 1 φ̂ I = φ
(
σ ip − σ i − σ p 1 − δ (1 − φ )(1 − σ ip ) ≥ 0 )
Sufficient condition: σ ip ≥ σ i + σ p
VIi < VI + VE
Competition
σp
Acquisition
Does high σi
drive VIi ≥ VI + VE
competition?
σi σ ip
Negotiating for the Market 34/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion
Welfare
Lic’g Competition
VIi < VI + VE
σp Licensing
Acquisition Compn
VIi ≥ VI + VE
σi σ ip
Negotiating for the Market 36/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Extensions
Cooperation Future Directions
Conclusion
Extensions
•R&D Costs
- Would change little but if rates of innovation the same, the incentive to
use negotiations to increase likelihood of incumbent innovator is
removed.
•Multiple innovators
- Incumbent still has lower incentives to innovate so conclusion unchanged
Future Directions
Future Directions
Future Directions
Future Directions