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Negotiating for the Market

Joshua Gans
University of Melbourne
March, 2010

Thursday, 11 March 2010


Introduction Markets for Ideas
Competition Research Question
Cooperation Literature
Conclusion Outline

Markets for Ideas

•Traditional models of innovation: competition


- Start-ups innovate for entry into product markets and displace
incumbents (Gilbert & Newbery, 1981; Reinganum, 1983)

•New Models of innovation: competition


- Start-Ups have options to engage in cooperative commercialisation (e.g.,
licensing, acquisitions) rather than compete in product markets (Salant,
1982; Gans and Stern, 2000)
- Advantages in saving on duplicative complementary assets (Teece, 1986)
or softening of product market competition

Negotiating for the Market 2 /38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction Markets for Ideas
Competition Research Question
Cooperation Literature
Conclusion Outline

Sources of Entrepreneurial Rents

Cooperation with
established firms

Competition with
established firms

Source: Thomson Venture/NVCA

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction Markets for Ideas
Competition Research Question
Cooperation Literature
Conclusion Outline

Sources of Entrepreneurial Rents

Source: Disk Drives, Christensen (1997, p.23)

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction Markets for Ideas
Competition Research Question
Cooperation Literature
Conclusion Outline

New Model: Cooperation (Biotech)

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction Markets for Ideas
Competition Research Question
Cooperation Literature
Conclusion Outline

Creation without Destruction?


•Competition: Technological entrepreneurship can displace
product market incumbents
- Entrepeneurship implies creative destruction

•Cooperation: Technological entrepreneurship may reinforce


existing market power
- Entrepreneurship leads to creation but no destruction

Key insight: Competition vs cooperation is not a given but a


choice ... the result of negotiations between start-ups and
incumbents.

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction Markets for Ideas
Competition Research Question
Cooperation Literature
Conclusion Outline

Research Agenda

•Builds on research program with Scott Stern (MIT) and David


Hsu (Wharton) ...

•To use insights from bargaining theory to understand the


commercialisation choices entrepreneurial start-ups.

•Questions:
- What are the gains from trade between start-ups and established firms?
- What impediments exist that might prevent these gains from being
realised?
- What are the welfare consequences of these choices?

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction Markets for Ideas
Competition Research Question
Cooperation Literature
Conclusion Outline

This Paper

•Consider a dynamic environment.


•Understand whether licensing and acquisitions are likely to
occur in a Schumpeterian environment -- that is, competition for
the market is more important than competition in the market.

•Characterise the welfare impact of cooperation -- specifically


on the rate of innovation in the industry.

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction Markets for Ideas
Competition Research Question
Cooperation Literature
Conclusion Outline

(Bilateral) Gains from Trade


•A start-up firm and an incumbent will trade in ideas markets if
their joint surplus exceeds their outside options
- Outside options: If the start-up can enter the product market (or deal
with another incumbent), then these are their profits under competition
plus sunk entry costs (Teece, 1986)
- Joint surplus: Continuation of incumbent position (plus additional value
of innovation)
- Implies gains from trade: avoiding duplicative investments and
softening product market competition (Gilbert & Newbery)

•Long-run: incumbent need not invest as much in R&D capabilities


- Caveat: ability to generate substitute innovations to dampen start-up
bargaining power (Gans & Stern, 2000)

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction Markets for Ideas
Competition Research Question
Cooperation Literature
Conclusion Outline

Impediments to Ideas Trading


•Bargaining inefficiency
- Information asymmetries cause inefficient break-downs or delay -- however,
we will see attempted trading.

•No gains from trade


- There are incomplete contracts implying that continued start-up ownership
and control is important. For example, to facilitate the transfer of tacit
knowledge (Arora, 1995).

•Strategic bypass
- Negotiations may require disclosures that harm the start-up’s competitive
position (i.e., allowing incumbent imitation); so much so that they avoid the
negotiation option -- Arrow’s disclosure problem (Anton & Yao, 1994).

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction Markets for Ideas
Competition Research Question
Cooperation Literature
Conclusion Outline

Dynamics and Ideas Markets


•Static rationale for cooperative commercialisation is strong
•Informal strategic concern (esp in teaching cases)
- EMI & the CT Scanner: “licensing would be ... ‘selling our birthright.’ ”
- Nucleon: licensing was viewed as ‘mortgaging away’ the company’s future.
- Ecton: “Cannon was also concerned about the impact that an acquisition might have on Ecton’s product
development process…. The Ecton founders were worried that if their company were absorbed into a larger
organization after acquisition, their development efforts for next-generation products would get mired …
Perhaps, they reasoned, their efforts would be more successful in the long run if they remained independent
until they had a refined product development process that might survive acquisition and integration.”

•Informal economic reaction:


- No problem. Then start-up should build future losses into the ‘price.’

•Formal evaluation
- Requires a dynamic model of successive innovation

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction Markets for Ideas
Competition Research Question
Cooperation Literature
Conclusion Outline

Outline

•Set-up dynamic model based on Segal-Whinston (2008)


•Equilibrium under competition
•Equilibrium under licensing
•Equilibrium under acquisition

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Technological Dynamics

•Most models of innovation and ideas markets are static


- Roles of firms in an industry is fixed
- Single innovation race

•Dynamics -- on-going innovation races


- Entrants come in and may become incumbents
- Incumbents protect against entrants
- Licensing may preserve roles in equilibrium but not off the equilibrium
path

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Segal-Whinston (AER, 2008)

•Model of dynamic technological competition


- SW apply to antitrust practices
- SW consider entrants as competing and displacing incumbents -- on-
going change

•Here, modifications
- Remove static competition effects to focus on dynamics in
Schumpeterian, ‘winner-take-all’ or ‘for the market’ competition.
- Incorporate ideas markets
- Model dynamic capabilities (firms may not be long-lived)

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Firms & Innovations


• Discrete time, infinite horizon with common discount factor, δ
• Innovations are sequential
- Innovation yields new product of higher quality than previous generation

• Incumbent (I)
- There is a single producer of the new product who can earn per period monopoly
rents, Π, until displaced.

• Innovation leader
- For each product generation only one firm conducts R&D
- Innovation leader drawn from pool of firms including the current incumbent
(O’Donoghue, Scotchmer and Thisse, 1998)
- I can be the innovation leader and prolong incumbency
- Otherwise, label leader as ‘entrant’ or E.

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Innovation Rate

Negotiating for the Market 16/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Innovation Rate

Innovation
Leader
chosen

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Innovation Rate

E
Innovation
Leader
chosen

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Innovation Rate

Choose
E φ E ∈[φ ,1]

Innovation
Leader
chosen

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Innovation Rate

Choose
E φ E ∈[φ ,1]

Innovation
Leader
chosen

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Innovation Rate

Choose
E φ E ∈[φ ,1]

Innovation
Leader
chosen

I Choose
φ I ∈[φ ,1]

Negotiating for the Market 16/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Innovation Rate

Choose
E φ E ∈[φ ,1]

Innovation
Leader
chosen

I Choose
φ I ∈[φ ,1]

No cost to R&D
Negotiating for the Market 16/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Innovation Rate

Choose
E φ E ∈[φ ,1] φ̂ E = 1

Innovation
Leader
chosen

I Choose
φ I ∈[φ ,1]

No cost to R&D
Negotiating for the Market 16/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Innovation Rate

Choose
E φ E ∈[φ ,1] φ̂ E = 1

Innovation
Leader
chosen

I Choose
φ I ∈[φ ,1] φ̂ I = φ

No cost to R&D
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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Commercialisation Choices

Negotiating for the Market 17/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Commercialisation Choices

Entrant
Innovates

Negotiating for the Market 17/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Commercialisation Choices

Competition

Entrant
Innovates

Negotiating for the Market 17/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Commercialisation Choices

I loses
Competition
monopoly
profits
Entrant
Innovates

Negotiating for the Market 17/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Commercialisation Choices

I loses E
Competition
monopoly becomes I
profits (earns Π)
Entrant
Innovates

Negotiating for the Market 17/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Commercialisation Choices

I loses E
Competition
monopoly becomes I
profits (earns Π)
Entrant
Innovates

Cooperation

Negotiating for the Market 17/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Commercialisation Choices

I loses E
Competition
monopoly becomes I
profits (earns Π)
Entrant
Innovates

I retains
Cooperation monopoly
profits

Negotiating for the Market 17/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Commercialisation Choices

I loses E
Competition
monopoly becomes I
profits (earns Π)
Entrant
Innovates

I retains E remains
Cooperation monopoly E
profits (earns τ)

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Dynamic Capabilities

Negotiating for the Market 18/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Dynamic Capabilities

Prior Activity

Negotiating for the Market 18/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Dynamic Capabilities

Prior Activity

Production
Only

Negotiating for the Market 18/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Dynamic Capabilities

Prior Activity

Production
Only

Innovation
Only

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Dynamic Capabilities

Prior Activity

Production
Only

Innovation
Only

Production &
Innovation
Negotiating for the Market 18/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Dynamic Capabilities

Prior Activity Example

Production
Only

Innovation
Only

Production &
Innovation
Negotiating for the Market 18/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Dynamic Capabilities

Prior Activity Example

Production I not an
Only innovation leader

Innovation
Only

Production &
Innovation
Negotiating for the Market 18/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Dynamic Capabilities

Prior Activity Example

Production I not an
Only innovation leader

Innovation E as innovation
Only leader

Production &
Innovation
Negotiating for the Market 18/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Dynamic Capabilities

Prior Activity Example

Production I not an
Only innovation leader

Innovation E as innovation
Only leader

Production & Merger or I as


Innovation innovation leader

Negotiating for the Market 18/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Dynamic Capabilities

Probability of
Prior Activity Example
becoming Leader
Production I not an
Only innovation leader

Innovation E as innovation
Only leader

Production & Merger or I as


Innovation innovation leader

Negotiating for the Market 18/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Dynamic Capabilities

Probability of
Prior Activity Example
becoming Leader
Production I not an
σ p ∈[0,1]
Only innovation leader

Innovation E as innovation
Only leader

Production & Merger or I as


Innovation innovation leader

Negotiating for the Market 18/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Dynamic Capabilities

Probability of
Prior Activity Example
becoming Leader
Production I not an
σ p ∈[0,1]
Only innovation leader

Innovation E as innovation
Only leader
σ i ∈[0,1]

Production & Merger or I as


Innovation innovation leader

Negotiating for the Market 18/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Dynamic Capabilities

Probability of
Prior Activity Example
becoming Leader
Production I not an
σ p ∈[0,1]
Only innovation leader

Innovation E as innovation
Only leader
σ i ∈[0,1]

Production & Merger or I as σ ip ≥ max{σ p , σ i }


Innovation innovation leader

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Competition

Negotiating for the Market 19/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Competition
Innovation
Leader

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Competition
Innovation
Leader

Negotiating for the Market 19/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Competition
Innovation Capabilities
Leader Stage

I acquires innovation
I and production
capabilities

Negotiating for the Market 19/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Competition
Innovation Capabilities Research
Leader Stage Stage

I acquires innovation I earns Π and chooses


I and production ϕI in each period until
capabilities innovates

Negotiating for the Market 19/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Competition
Innovation Capabilities Research
Leader Stage Stage

I acquires innovation I earns Π and chooses


I and production ϕI in each period until
capabilities innovates

Negotiating for the Market 19/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Competition
Innovation Capabilities Research
Leader Stage Stage

I acquires innovation I earns Π and chooses


I and production ϕI in each period until
capabilities innovates

or

Negotiating for the Market 19/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Competition
Innovation Capabilities Research
Leader Stage Stage

I acquires innovation I earns Π and chooses


I and production ϕI in each period until
capabilities innovates

or

E acquires innovation
E capability and I
acquires production
capability

Negotiating for the Market 19/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Competition
Innovation Capabilities Research
Leader Stage Stage

I acquires innovation I earns Π and chooses


I and production ϕI in each period until
capabilities innovates

or

E acquires innovation
I earns Π and E
E capability and I
chooses ϕE in each
acquires production
period until innovates
capability

Negotiating for the Market 19/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Competition
Innovation Capabilities Research Competition
Leader Stage Stage Stage

I acquires innovation I earns Π and chooses


I and production ϕI in each period until
capabilities innovates

or

E acquires innovation
I earns Π and E
E capability and I
chooses ϕE in each E replaces I
acquires production
period until innovates
capability

Negotiating for the Market 19/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Competition
Innovation Capabilities Research Competition
Leader Stage Stage Stage

I acquires innovation I earns Π and chooses


I and production ϕI in each period until
capabilities innovates

or

E acquires innovation
I earns Π and E
E capability and I
chooses ϕE in each E replaces I
acquires production
period until innovates
capability

Negotiating for the Market 19/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Continuation Payoffs

VE = (1 − φ E )δVE + φ E (Π + σ iδV + (1 − σ i )δVI ) I


i

VI = (1 − φ E )(Π + δVI ) + φ Eσ pδVE

V = (1 − φ I )(Π + δV ) + φ I (Π + σ ipδV + (1 − σ ip )δVI )


I
i
I
i
I
i

Negotiating for the Market 20/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Incentives to Innovate

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Incentives to Innovate

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Incentives to Innovate

E Π + σ iδV + (1 − σ i )δVI − δVE


I
i

Negotiating for the Market 21/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Incentives to Innovate

E Π + σ iδV + (1 − σ i )δVI − δVE


I
i

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Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Incentives to Innovate

E Π + σ iδV + (1 − σ i )δVI − δVE


I
i

I (1 − σ ip )δ (V − VI )
I
i

Negotiating for the Market 21/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Incentives to Innovate

E Π + σ iδV + (1 − σ i )δVI − δVE


I
i
φ̂ E = 1

I (1 − σ ip )δ (V − VI )
I
i

Negotiating for the Market 21/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Incentives to Innovate

E Π + σ iδV + (1 − σ i )δVI − δVE


I
i
φ̂ E = 1

I (1 − σ ip )δ (V − VI )
I
i
φ̂ I = φ

Negotiating for the Market 21/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Markov perfect equilibrium

VE = 1
Δc (
Π 1 − δ (1 − φ ) + δ (σ i − φσ ip ) )
VI = 1
Δc (
δΠ 1 − δ (1 − φ ) + δ (σ i − φσ ip ) σ p )
V =
I
i 1
Δc ( 2
(
Π 1 − δ 1 − φ (1 − σ ip ) − σ )σ )
i p

Δ c = 1 − δ (1 − φ ) − δ (φσ ip + δ ((1 − δ (1 − σ i ) + δφ (1 − σ ip ))σ p )

Negotiating for the Market 22/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Model Set-Up
Competition
Equilibrium
Cooperation
Restructuring
Conclusion

Restructuring & Spin-Outs


Would an incumbent innovation leader spin-out its innovating arm?

•Not worthwhile if ...

V ≥ VI + VE ⇒ 1 − φ (1 − σ ip ) ≥ σ i + σ p
I
i

... but spin-outs are always socially desirable as


entrants innovate more than incumbents

Negotiating for the Market 23/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Licensing
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Licensing
Innovation Capabilities Research
Leader Stage Stage

I acquires innovation I earns Π and chooses


I and production ϕI in each period until
capabilities innovates

or

E acquires innovation
I earns Π and E
E capability and I
chooses ϕE in each
acquires production
period until innovates
capability

Negotiating for the Market 24/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Licensing
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Licensing
Innovation Capabilities Research Negotiation
Leader Stage Stage Stage

I acquires innovation I earns Π and chooses


I and production ϕI in each period until
capabilities innovates

or

E acquires innovation
I earns Π and E
E capability and I
chooses ϕE in each E negotiates with I
acquires production
period until innovates
capability

Negotiating for the Market 24/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Licensing
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Negotiations

Π − τ + σ pδV + (1 − σ p )δVI + τ + σ iδVE


I
i


Joint Payoff from Cooperation

≥ σ pδVE + Π + σ iδV + (1 − σ i )δVI


I
i

  
Joint Payoff from Competition

(
⇒ (σ p − σ i )δ V − VE − VI ≥ 0
I
i
)
Negotiating for the Market 25/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Licensing
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Continuation Payoffs

VE = (1 − φ E )δVE + φ E (τ + σ iδVE )

VI = Π + (1 − φ E )δVI + φ E (−τ + σ pδV ) I


i

V = (1 − φ I )(Π + δV ) + φ I (Π + σ ipδV + (1 − σ ip )δVI )


I
i
I
i
I
i

Negotiating for the Market 26/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Licensing
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Markov Perfect Equilibrium


( ) (τ + σ δV )
1− γ γ
max τ Π − τ + σ pδV + (1 − σ p )δVI − σ pδVE
I
i
i E
− (Π + σ iδV + (1 − σ i )δVI )
I
i

φ̂ E = 1 φ̂ I = φ

Licensing is the unique equilibrium outcome if ...

(
(σ p − σ i )δ 1 − φ (1 − σ ip ) − σ i − σ p ≥ 0 )

Negotiating for the Market 27/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Licensing
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Licensing Equilibrium Outcomes


σ ip

Competition
VIi < VI + VE

σp Licensing
Licensing

Competition
VIi ≥ VI + VE

σi σ ip
Negotiating for the Market 28/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Licensing
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Licensing Equilibrium Outcomes


σ ip

Competition
VIi < VI + VE

σp Licensing
Licensing

Does high σi
drive Competition
VIi ≥ VI + VE
competition?
σi σ ip
Negotiating for the Market 28/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Licensing
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Intuition

If VIi ≥ VI + VE want an incumbent innovator


σ p > σ i achieve that by keeping I as incumbent (Licensing)
σ p < σ i achieve that by making E the incumbent (Competition)

If I < VI + VE want an entrant innovator


V i

σ p > σ i achieve that by making E the incumbent (Competition)


σ p < σi achieve that by keeping I as incumbent (Licensing)

But welfare maximised by always maximising chance


for entrant innovator
Negotiating for the Market 29/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Restructuring
σ ip

Restructuring
no gains VIi < VI + VE
from trade
σp
Licensing

Competition
VIi ≥ VI + VE

σi σ ip
Negotiating for the Market 30/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Negotiations

Π − τ + σ ipδV + (1 − σ ip )δVI + τ
I
i

  
Joint Payoff from Cooperation

≥ σ pδVE + Π + σ iδV + (1 − σ i )δVI


I
i

  
Joint Payoff from Competition

Negotiating for the Market 31/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Negotiations

Π − τ + σ ipδV + (1 − σ ip )δVI + τ
I
i

  
Joint Payoff from Cooperation

≥ σ pδVE + Π + σ iδV + (1 − σ i )δVII


i

  
Joint Payoff from Competition

⇒ (σ ip − σ i )δ (V − VI ) ≥ σ pδVE
I
i

Negotiating for the Market 31/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Negotiations

Π − τ + σ ipδV + (1 − σ ip )δVI + τ
I
i

  
Joint Payoff from Cooperation

≥ σ pδVE + Π + σ iδV + (1 − σ i )δVII


i

  
Joint Payoff from Competition

⇒ (σ ip − σ i )δ (V − VI ) ≥ σ pδVE
I
i

1 − σ ip > 1 − σ i − σ p

Negotiating for the Market 31/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Negotiations

Π − τ + σ ipδV + (1 − σ ip )δVI + τ
I
i

  
Joint Payoff from Cooperation

≥ σ pδVE + Π + σ iδV + (1 − σ i )δVII


i

  
Joint Payoff from Competition

⇒ (σ ip − σ i )δ (V − VI ) ≥ σ pδVE
I
i

1 − σ ip > 1 − σ i − σ p implies positive externality on


potential entrants

Negotiating for the Market 31/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Continuation Payoffs

VE = (1 − φ E )δVE + φ Eτ

VI = Π + (1 − φ E )δVI + φ E (−τ + σ ipδV ) I


i

V = (1 − φ I )(Π + δV ) + φ I (Π + σ ipδV + (1 − σ ip )δVI )


I
i
I
i
I
i

Negotiating for the Market 32/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Markov Perfect Equilibrium

Negotiating for the Market 33/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Markov Perfect Equilibrium

φ̂ E = 1 φ̂ I = φ

Negotiating for the Market 33/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Markov Perfect Equilibrium

φ̂ E = 1 φ̂ I = φ

Acquisition is the unique equilibrium outcome if and only if ...

(
σ ip − σ i − σ p 1 − δ (1 − φ )(1 − σ ip ) ≥ 0 )

Negotiating for the Market 33/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Markov Perfect Equilibrium

φ̂ E = 1 φ̂ I = φ

Acquisition is the unique equilibrium outcome if and only if ...

(
σ ip − σ i − σ p 1 − δ (1 − φ )(1 − σ ip ) ≥ 0 )
Sufficient condition:

Negotiating for the Market 33/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Markov Perfect Equilibrium

φ̂ E = 1 φ̂ I = φ

Acquisition is the unique equilibrium outcome if and only if ...

(
σ ip − σ i − σ p 1 − δ (1 − φ )(1 − σ ip ) ≥ 0 )
Sufficient condition: σ ip ≥ σ i + σ p

Negotiating for the Market 33/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Acquisition Equilibrium Outcomes


σ ip

VIi < VI + VE
Competition
σp

Acquisition
Does high σi
drive VIi ≥ VI + VE
competition?
σi σ ip
Negotiating for the Market 34/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Welfare

•Acquisition never socially desirable


•Significant: commentators suggest that Schumpeterian
competition implies loose merger policy

•Here: merger consolidates capabilities to become next lead


innovator in incumbent’s hands (removes entrant capabilities) --
with reduced innovation incentives.

•Merger delays forces of creative destruction

Negotiating for the Market 35/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Licensing
Competition
Restructuring
Cooperation
Acquisition
Conclusion

Licensing & Acquisition


σ ip

Lic’g Competition
VIi < VI + VE

σp Licensing

Acquisition Compn

VIi ≥ VI + VE

σi σ ip
Negotiating for the Market 36/38
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Extensions
Cooperation Future Directions
Conclusion

Extensions

•R&D Costs
- Would change little but if rates of innovation the same, the incentive to
use negotiations to increase likelihood of incumbent innovator is
removed.

•Product market competition


- Increases (static) drivers for licensing
- Licensing involves additional welfare costs

•Multiple innovators
- Incumbent still has lower incentives to innovate so conclusion unchanged

Negotiating for the Market 37/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Extensions
Cooperation Future Directions
Conclusion

Future Directions

Negotiating for the Market 38/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Extensions
Cooperation Future Directions
Conclusion

Future Directions

•Endogenise capability acquisition

Negotiating for the Market 38/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Extensions
Cooperation Future Directions
Conclusion

Future Directions

•Endogenise capability acquisition


•Impact of other anti-trust practices under licensing

Negotiating for the Market 38/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010
Introduction
Competition Extensions
Cooperation Future Directions
Conclusion

Future Directions

•Endogenise capability acquisition


•Impact of other anti-trust practices under licensing
•Richer space of strategic variables

Negotiating for the Market 38/38


Thursday, 11 March 2010

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