Professional Documents
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Statistics
Probability: Introduction and Basic
Counting Principles
Introduction
The Role of Probability in Statistics
When you toss a single coin, you will see
either a head (H) or a tail (T). If you toss the
coin repeatedly, you will generate an infinitely
large number of Hs and Ts the entire
population.
Introduction
The Role of Probability in Statistics
Now suppose you are not sure whether the
coin is fair; that is, you are not sure whether
the makeup of the population is 50-50.
Statistics is deterministic, while Probability is
probabilistic.
Set Operations
A U B = the event that occurs if A occurs or B
occurs (or both)
A B = the event that occurs if A occurs and B
occurs
A = complement of A; the event that A does not
occur
Set Operations
Two events A and B are said to be mutually
exclusive events if they are disjoint, i.e.,
A B = or {}
Example 1
Consider tossing a die and recording the number
that comes up.
Sample Space: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Let
A = event that odd number occurs
B = event that even number occurs
C = event that a perfect square occurs
Example 1
A = {1, 3, 5}
B= {2, 4, 6}
C = {1, 4}
Then
B U C = {1, 2, 4, 6}
A C = {1}
C = {2, 3, 5, 6}
Note that A and B are mutually exclusive, i.e.,
AB=
Example 2
Two coins are tossed simultaneously. Then the
possible outcomes are
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Let
A = event that a head appears on any coin
B = event that both outcomes of the coins are
the same
Example 2
A = {HH, HT, TH}
n(A) = 3
Then
A B = {HH}
AUB=S
B = {HH, TT}
n(B) = 2
Venn Diagram
Example:
100 students took part in the survey asking about
their favorite subjects. The following are the
responses:
40 chose Science
35 chose Math
30 chose English
20 chose both Science & Math
18 chose both Science & English
15 chose both Math & English
9 chose all 3 subjects
Solution
ENTIRE SAMPLE SPACE
11
9
Sc
11 9 9 6
6E
TOTAL = 100
39
Example 1
If repetition is not allowed, (a) how many threedigit numbers can be formed from the digits 1,
2, 4, 5, and 6? (b) How many of these are odd?
A three-digit number is composed of hundreds
(102), tens (101), and units (100) digits.
Therefore,
5 4 3 = 60 three-digit numbers
102 101 100
Example 1
If we restrict ourselves only to those odd
numbers, then there are
4 3 2 = 24 three-digit numbers
102 101 100
Example
The number of ways is computed to be
3! = 6 ways
n!
nPr=
(n r )!
Example
Consider the case if only two of the three letters
from the previous example are to be arranged,
then the possible arrangements are
ab
ba
ac
ca
bc
cb
Example
By computation,
3!
3 P2 =
(3 2)!
3 P2 = 6 ways
b
c
c
b
Example
By computation,
(n 1) = (3 1)!
= 2 ways
Example 2
If 4 Americans, 3 Chinese and 3 Africans are to
be seated in a round table, how many seating
arrangements are possible
a. regardless of nationality?
b. when people of the same nationality sit next
to each other?
Example 2
Solution
a. Regardless of the nationality, the number of arrangements
of the 10 people in a circle is
(10 1)! = 9! = 362,880 ways
b. Considering the three groups
(3 1)! = 2! = 2 ways
Considering each nationality
Americans: 4! = 24 ways
Chinese: 3! = 6 ways
Africans: 3! = 6 ways
Altogether:
2! 4! 3! 3! = 1,728 ways
n!
=
n1 , n2 ,...nk n1 ! n2 ! ... nk
Example 1
In how many ways can the letters of the word
indeterminate be arranged?
Solution:
Since there are 13 letters in the given word and
out of these, there are some letters with
repetition.
Solution
Let
Then
n1 = number of letter i = 2
n2 = number of letter n = 2
n3 = number of letter d = 1
n4 = number of letter e = 3
n5 = number of letter t = 2
n6 = number of letter r = 1
n7 = number of letter m = 1
n8 = number of letter a = 1
13
13!
=
= 129, 729, 600 ways
Example 2
In how many ways can 10 people be assigned in
groups of 1, 2, 3, and 4 members.
Solution:
10
10!
= 12, 600 ways
=
1, 2,3, 4 1!2!3!4!
Combination
The combination of n objects taken at r at a
time, where order does not count, is
n
n!
C (n, r ) or nCr or =
r r !(n r )!
Example
A school wants to buy 6 computers for its
laboratory from a local supplier. The supplier
has 10 computers in stock, 4 of which are
foreign-made.
a. Find how many ways there are to buy 6
computers from the supplier.
b. Find how many ways there are to buy
computers if the school prefers 4 local and 2
foreign-made computers.
Solution
a.
10C6
= 210 ways
b. (6C4)(4C2) = 90 ways
4C36C2 = 60 ways
4C46C1 = 6 ways
Total
66 ways
6C44C1 = 60 ways
6C34C2 = 120 ways
6C24C3 = 60 ways
6C14C4 = 6 ways
6C04C5 = ways
Total
246 ways