Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Which interest rates and money supplies have statistically significant relationships?
Are some interest rates more responsive to certain measures of money supply than
others?
How worthwhile are the special events? What policy would you recommend with
regard to special events in 1980? Explain (refer to the technical appendix for
details).
Baseball Fans: Who are the Gotham Giants? What is the real radio station? Who are the star
pitchers? Who are opponents 1, 2, and 10?
Reyem Affiar
Sources
Case: Separate HBS Case
Data: Reyem.jmp
JMP Instructions
As in the Gotham Giants case, I created dummy variables that will be useful for your analysis.
For the look-alike analysis, you may want to sort the data. To do so, select Tables and then Sort.
Highlight the variable of interest and click on By and then Sort.
To predict the selling price of 236 Ellery Street, add one row of data by selecting Rows and then
Add Rows. Add one row to the end of the data file and fill in the information corresponding to
236 Ellery Street. Since some of the cells including the cell for Sale Price will be missing, this
observation will not contribute to the estimated regression model. After estimating the regression
model of interest (see the above instructions for The Gotham Giants), click on the red triangle in
the upper left hand corner and then select Save Columns and Predicted Values. Return to the data
table and note the new column of predicted values. The predicted value of interest will appear in
the last row of this new column.
Assignment
Look-alike Analysis: Identify a group of condominiums with characteristics similar to 236 Ellery
Street. The size of this group will depend on your look-alike definitions. Using only this group of
condominiums, guess the selling price of 236 Ellery Street.
Regression Analysis: Using only the methods covered by the end of the last class, develop and
estimate regression models of selling price. Present at most two empirical specifications. Justify
your selection of independent variables. Briefly discuss which variables significantly influence the
selling price. Indicate the signs of these coefficients and whether the signs are intuitive. Based on
one of these models, predict the selling price of 236 Ellery Street.
Address the following questions in your executive summary:
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Discuss the relative merits of look-alike analysis and regression analysis in the
context of real estate appraisals in general and in this case in particular.
What other variables not included in the data set might improve the regression
model=s predictive power?
What price should Reyem offer? Explain fully (refer to the results in the technical
appendix). What information about Reyem might help you address this question?
Harmon Foods
Sources
Case: Schleifer and Bell
Data: Harmon.jmp
JMP Instructions
Ignore the Invalid Row Number message when reading in the data.
If you use dummy variables, remember to code them as continuous in JMP.
Note that lagged values of consumer packs and dealer allowances have already been created.
See the instructions for The Gotham Giants and for Reyem Affiar on estimation and prediction.
To obtain the results of a Durbin Watson test, click on the red triangle in the upper left hand
corner and then select Row Diagnostics and Durbin Watson Test.
Assignment
For January 1988, Harmon Foods has budgeted for 250,000 cases of consumer packs and
$100,000 in dealer allowances. What is your sales forecast for the month, assuming the budgeted
promotion figures prove correct?
To answer this question, develop a multiple regression model of sales. In addition to consumer
packs and dealer allowances, consider including a trend, seasonal effects, and lags in your model.
In your analysis, be sure to describe the data set including the sample size, clearly define all
variables used in your model, and explain why you selected these variables. Present a specific
sales forecast based on your regression model, interpret relevant coefficients, indicate which
variables are statistically significant at conventional levels of significance (10%, 5%, and 1%), and
discuss the fit of your model. Present up to three sets of results in your technical appendix but
discuss only one set of results in your executive summary.
Advertising Strategy
Sources
Case: Anderson, Sweeney, and Williams, Management Science Supplement, Chapter 2
Data: None
Assignment
See the instructions for the managerial report. In addition to providing the relevant background
and motivation, address parts #1-7 in your executive summary. Include the linear programming
model and graphical solution in your technical appendix. Clearly indicate the decision variables,
objective function, and constraints. On your graphical solution, clearly indicate the constraints,
feasible set, and optimal solution.
Production Strategy
Sources
Case: Anderson, Sweeney, and Williams, Management Science Supplement, Chapter 2
Data: None
Assignment
See the instructions for the managerial report. In addition to providing the relevant background
and motivation, address parts #1-3 in your executive summary. Also discuss the potential
implications of the 30% dealer discount on the optimal product mix. Include the linear
programming model and graphical solution in your technical appendix. Clearly indicate the
decision variables, objective function, and constraints. On your graphical solution, clearly indicate
the constraints, feasible set, and optimal solution.