PERSPECTIVE: Constitutional Amendments, Nationwide

Ceasere Agreement and November Election

Opinions

Jul 13, 2015

With the announcement of November 8 nationwide election, the linkage of the constitutional amendment
debacle and on going problematic Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) issues intensifies, in determining
the countrys future, especially where democratization and reconciliation process are concerned.
Constitutional Amendments
By now, it is becoming evident that the recent constitutional
amendment debacle has already shown the militarys unwillingness to
compromise over its veto power or political edge and make way for
easier, future amendments, to the chagrin of most ethnic and
opposition parties.
The constitutional amendment of Sections 59(f) and 436 were voted
down, on June 25, by the military members of parliament, under direct
command of Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing, where the
military has total veto power over the amendments.
In the same vein, amendment of Section 261 that had been pushed by non-Burman ethnic lawmakers, to
allow state and regional legislatures to elect their own chief minister, which is currently the responsibility
of the president to appoint an individual to the post, was also rejected by the military veto votes.
Section 436 amendment proposal is aimed at doing away with the militarys veto voting power by lowing
the voting threshold from 75% to 70%, while Section 59(f) is to remove the prohibition designed to prevent
Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National Legue for Democracy (NLD), from ever becoming president, due to
her two sons British citizenship.
The military is allotted with 25% appointed MP seats, which in turn gives the military bloc the veto power
that could vote against any constitutional amendment, for more than 75% votes is needed, to sail through
the first parliamentary motion. Thus, it becomes clear that no changes could ever happen, without the
consent and willingness of the military.
Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement

Parallel to this constitutional amendment debacle, the ongoing NCA between the regimes Union Peacemaking Work Committee (UPWC) and the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) Senior Delegation (SD) still
cannot be finalized. According to Ethnic Nationalities Affairs Center (ENAC) Briefing, No. 11, 9 July 2015:
On 3-4 July 2015, the Senior Delegation (SD), formed by the Law Khee Lar Leadership Summit and led by
Naw Zipporah Sein, met with Union Minister U Aung Min, Vice Chairman of the Union Peace-making Work
Committee (UPWC), Union Minister U Khin Yi and Myanmar Peace Center officials in Chiang Mai, Thailand.
During this preliminary negotiation, the SD delivered a clear message to the UPWC that the SD is
committed to addressing remaining issues in the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) draft and signing
it before the end of President Thein Seins term.
Two core issues remain to complete the NCA draft: a) inclusiveness, and b) domestic and international
witnesses. During the recent preliminary negotiations of July 3-4, the SD and UPWC acknowledged that the
Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) and the UPWC had not finalized these issues on March
30, 2015. They remain to be negotiated.
The government and the SD are scheduled to meet during the third week of this month.
Consequently, according to the SD-UPWC Meeting Note (3-4 July 2015), the UPWC tabled four points. The
first is to stick to the 31 March NCA draft without amendments and Law Khee Lah resolution should be kept
as meeting decision between SD and UPWC. Second, in the signing of NCA, 14 organizations that have
already signed ceasefire agreement and KIO will be involved; but the remaining groups will be allowed to
participate in political dialogues, only after signing bilateral ceasefire agreement. Third, the regime would
consider all-inclusiveness only at political dialogue stage. Fourth, witness to NCA signing will include only
UN, ASEAN and China.
And as such, the ongoing NCA failure or success will depend on militarys accommodation of the SD
proposal and how much more the EAOs could compromise on regimes position.
The general assumption is that if the military is unwilling even to reduce the vote-ceiling of 75% to a mere
70%, as shown in its Sections 436 and 59 (f) voting pattern, the SDs 12 points, amendment proposal also
wont be easy to make the military agree. And if there couldnt be agreement on NCA, the much anticipated
signing of it wont also materialize.
November Election
One affirmative development is the announcement of nationwide elections in November 8. It is positive in a
sense that the regime has kept its promises and the influential political parties like NLD and Shan
Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) have confirmed to participate, unlike the 2010 election, where
both parties refused to take part, due to the rejection of military drafted 2008 Constitution.
In 1990 nationwide election NLD won with a landslide and SNLD came out the second winning party, but
were refused to form government by the the ruling military government.

According to DVB report of 13 July, NLD has announced that it intends to run in as many constituencies as it
can in this years general election, but that it is willing to abstain from competing for certain seats to avoid
clashing with its allies.
The Committee Representing the Peoples Parliament (CRPP) was formed in 1998 by the NLD alongside
other parties that won seats in the 1990 general election, results of which were not recognized by the thenruling military junta.
The other parties who were signatories to the 1998 alliance were: Shan Nationalities League for Democracy,
led by Hkun Htun Oo; the Arakan League for Democracy, led by Aye Thar Aung; the Mon National League for
Democracy, led by Nai Tun Thein; Kyaw Mins National Democratic Party for Human Rights; the National
Democracy Party, led by Soe Win; the Zomi National Congress, led by Cin Sian Thang; and Htaung Ko
Thangs United Nationalities League for Democracy.
SHAN report of 11 July also confirmed that NLD resolved to form coalition with ethnic parties and refraining
to run in their constituencies, which are positive moves that have the potential to change the Burmas
political landscape and equation.
The report quoted Hkun Htoon Oo as saying: Aung San Suu Kyis decision to participate in the election and
to form coalition with ethnic parties are welcome. Were old friends that have come through thick and
thin rain and wind, hand-in-hand.
It looks like NLD is resolved to further pin its hope of constitutional amendments within the parliament
with the help of other opposition, ethnic parties and protest votes from the government Union Solidarity
and Development Party (USDP). Apart from that, it also said that the naming of presidential candidate, other
than Aung San Suu Kyi for constitutionally she is not qualified will be from within the NLD, narrowing it
down to U Tin Oo and U Win Htein, both with military background.
According to The Irrawaddy report of 11 July, when asked who would be presidential candidate, one NLD
MP said: Although U Tin U is 88 years old, his health is excellent and could still carry on his duty. But U
Win Htein, though only 74, is not so healthy. So, if I say this much you should understand.
To sum up, the much anticipated constitutional amendments couldnt be materialized, at least during this
legislative period; NCA amendment proposal is still in the limbo and couldnt be sure how much the regime
is prepared to compromise; and the November election outcome is still a speculation, although NLD could
pocket more votes than the regimes party and push the country into a new era by amending the
constitution. But still frustration might linger on, even if the NLD and ethnic parties could form a coalition
government, provided that they garnered enough votes, for the constitution still allows the military to
simply suspend the government and take over whenever they like.
Given such a backdrop, the status quo scenario that is now the order of the day, would be hard to maintain
and change is going to be inevitable, after the November elections. Only, for now, it will be hard to predict,
how Burmas political course will look like and push into.

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Startthediscussion

Bethefirsttocomment.

WHAT'STHIS?

ALSOONSHANHERALDAGENCYFORNEWS|ENGLISH

RCSSvowsnottosupportanyparties

WhatcomesafterNCAissigned

1commentamonthago

1commentamonthago

AitingKham IwouldgivemyvotetoSNLD,

RolandWatsonWhoistheauthorofthese

andworktogetherwithbothSNLDandSNDP
toalleviatethepeople'sconcerns.Iama

unsignededitorials?Theyalwayssupportthe
ideathattheEAOsshouldjustsignthe

ALLINCLUSIVENESSINANETHNIC
CONTEXT

CEASEFIRETALKS:WouldMinAung
Hlaingsprofessedmilitarysupremacy

2commentsamonthago

1comment2monthsago

RolandWatsonPaul,HowmuchdoesHarn

RolandWatsonIsitreallyloselose

payyoutowritethistripe?

outcome?Theregimeisnotlosing.Itisdoing
exactlywhatitwants.Theceasefire

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