EJERCICIO 1

Proyecto de 30,000,000 TM con ley de cobre de 1.80% para ser minado por mtodos subterrneos
Productora de concentrado de cobre. Precio Cobre: 3.10 US$/Libra

DATOS:
Inversin estimada total
Inversin equipos e infraestructura
Ingeniera

160,000,000
75,000,000
4,000,000

Periodo de construccin
Costos operativos

2
Minado
Concentracin
Costo Fund&Refinacin Cu

Recuperacin metalurgica

Concentrado Cu
Fundicin Cu
Refinera Cu

Precio venta del Cobre

3.1

PASO N 03 : Una vez estimado la produccion anual de Cu calculamos el flujo de caja del proyecto
ETAPAS
Aos

INGENIERIA
2013
0

Ingresos Cobre
Costo Ventas Cobre
Utilidad Bruta

Depreciacin (-)
Utilidad antes participacion de trabajadores

Participacin trabajadores 8%

Utilidad antes impuesto a la renta

Impuesto a la renta 30%

Utilidad neta

Depreciacin (+)

Total gastos de capital

-4,000,000

Flujo de Efectivo neto

-4,000,000

Flujo de Efectivo acumulado

-4,000,000

PASO N 04 : Una vez generado el flujo de

Tasa Interna de Retorno (TIR)

TIR
Valor Actual Neto (VAN)
VAN (9%)
VAN (10%)
VAN (15%)
VAN (17%)
PAYBACK

$1,600,000,000

$1,400,000,000

$1,200,000,000

$1,000,000,000

VAN

$800,000,000

$600,000,000

$400,000,000

$200,000,000

$0
0.0%

-$200,000,000

$0
0.0%

-$200,000,000

r mtodos subterrneos

()=6.5

S:
US$
US$ a depreciar en 10 aos
US$
aos
4 US$/TM mineral
6 US$/TM mineral

nd&Refinacin Cu

0.25 US$/Lb Cobre

85 %
99.1 %
99.8 %

US$/Lb Cobre

mos el flujo de caja del proyecto

CONSTRUCCION
2014

2015

2016

2017

218,322,359

218,322,359

-37,606,642

-37,606,642

180,715,717

180,715,717

-7,500,000

-7,500,000

173,215,717

173,215,717

-13,857,257

-13,857,257

159,358,460

159,358,460

-47,807,538

-47,807,538

111,550,922

111,550,922

7,500,000

7,500,000

-78,000,000

-78,000,000

-78,000,000

-78,000,000

119,050,922

119,050,922

-82,000,000

-160,000,000

-40,949,078

78,101,844

04 : Una vez generado el flujo de caja evaluamos la rentabilidad del proyecto

Tasa Interna de Retorno (TIR)

56%
Valor Actual Neto (VAN)
$629,508,283
$576,090,367
$376,801,380
$320,222,700
En 2 aos y 3 meses

REPRE
$1,600,000,000

$1,400,000,000

$1,200,000,000

$1,000,000,000

VAN

$800,000,000

$600,000,000

$400,000,000

$200,000,000

$0
0.0%

-$200,000,000

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

$0
0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

-$200,000,000

VALOR ACTUAL NETO

TASA DE DESCUENTO

TIR%
NPV 9%
NPV 10%
NPV 15%
NPV 17%
NPV 20%
NPV 25%
NPV 50%
NPV 60%
NPV 80%

=
=

VAN
Ko

=
=

56%

9.0%
10.0%
15.0%
17.0%
20.0%
25.0%
50.0%
60.0%
80.0%

252,237,021
170,882,337
14,005,373
-6,248,166
-25,632,286

Sensibilidad Cu
Precio Cu
NPV 9%

0.6
-110,643,003

629,428,283
576,010,367
376,721,380
320,142,700
252,157,021
170,802,337
13,925,373
-6,328,166
-25,712,286

1
7,768,403

Sensibilida
1,000,000,000

800,000,000

Sensibilida
1,000,000,000

800,000,000

600,000,000

400,000,000
303,796,918
200,000,000
155,782,660

7,768,403

0.6

1
-110,643,003

-200,000,000

1.5

2.5

PASO N 01 : Apartir de las reservas calculamos el tiempo de vida de la mina en aos

()=6.5( ) ^0.25
15.2

TIEMPO DE VIDA (aos) =

PASO N 02 : Una vez calculado el tiempo de vida de la mina realizamos el plan de produccion anual
Tiempo de Operacin (Aos)

Produccin Anual (TM)

Ley de Cu (%)
Produccion Cu Fino (TM)
Lbs Cobre

2,000,000
1.9

2,000,000
1.9

2,000,000
1.9

31,945.28

31,945.28

31,945.28

70,426,567

70,426,567

70,426,567

2018

2019

2020

2021

218,322,359

218,322,359

218,322,359

206,831,708

-37,606,642

-37,606,642

-37,606,642

-36,679,976

180,715,717

180,715,717

180,715,717

170,151,732

-7,500,000

-7,500,000

-7,500,000

-7,500,000

173,215,717

173,215,717

173,215,717

162,651,732

-13,857,257

-13,857,257

-13,857,257

-13,012,139

159,358,460

159,358,460

159,358,460

149,639,593

-47,807,538

-47,807,538

-47,807,538

-44,891,878

111,550,922

111,550,922

111,550,922

104,747,715

7,500,000

7,500,000

7,500,000

7,500,000

119,050,922

119,050,922

119,050,922

112,247,715

197,152,765

316,203,687

435,254,609

547,502,324

9,920,910.15
19,841,820.29
29,762,730.44

20.0%

59,525,460.88

1,984,182.03
3,968,364.06
5,952,546.09

REPRESENTACION GRAFICA DEL VAN EN FUNCION DE

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

Ko

60

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60

Ko

$629,508,283.46
9%

1.5

VALOR ACTUAL NETO

TASA DE DESCUENTO

2
155,782,660

303,796,918

2.5
451,811,175

3
599,825,432

Sensibilidad Cu
895,853,947

747,839,689

Sensibilidad Cu
895,853,947

747,839,689

599,825,432

451,811,175

303,796,918

155,782,660

3
1.5

2.5

3.5

de produccion anual
4

2,000,000
1.9

2,000,000
1.9

2,000,000
1.8

2,000,000
1.8

2,000,000
1.8

31,945.28

31,945.28

30,263.95

30,263.95

30,263.95

70,426,567

70,426,567

66,719,906

66,719,906

66,719,906

OPERACIN
2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

10

11

12

13

206,831,708

206,831,708

206,831,708

206,831,708

195,341,058

-36,679,976

-36,679,976

-36,679,976

-36,679,976

-35,753,311

170,151,732

170,151,732

170,151,732

170,151,732

159,587,747

-7,500,000

-7,500,000

-7,500,000

-7,500,000

162,651,732

162,651,732

162,651,732

162,651,732

159,587,747

-13,012,139

-13,012,139

-13,012,139

-13,012,139

-12,767,020

149,639,593

149,639,593

149,639,593

149,639,593

146,820,727

-44,891,878

-44,891,878

-44,891,878

-44,891,878

-44,046,218

104,747,715

104,747,715

104,747,715

104,747,715

102,774,509

7,500,000

7,500,000

7,500,000

7,500,000

112,247,715

112,247,715

112,247,715

112,247,715

102,774,509

659,750,039

771,997,755

884,245,470

996,493,186

1,099,267,694

FUNCION DE Ko

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

60.0%

OR ACTUAL NETO
A DE DESCUENTO

853,947

=
=

3.5
747,839,689

70.0%

VAN
Ko

=
=

4
895,853,947

$0.00
56%

80.0%

90.0%

853,947

10

11

12

13

2,000,000
1.8

2,000,000
1.8

2,000,000
1.7

2,000,000
1.7

2,000,000
1.7

30,263.95

30,263.95

28,582.62

28,582.62

28,582.62

66,719,906

66,719,906

63,013,244

63,013,244

63,013,244

2027

2028

2029

2030

14

15

16

17

TOTAL

195,341,058

195,341,058

195,341,058

195,341,058

3,102,475,626

-35,753,311

-35,753,311

-35,753,311

-35,753,311

-550,199,647

159,587,747

159,587,747

159,587,747

159,587,747

2,552,275,979
-75,000,000

159,587,747

159,587,747

159,587,747

159,587,747

2,477,275,979

-12,767,020

-12,767,020

-12,767,020

-12,767,020

-198,182,078

146,820,727

146,820,727

146,820,727

146,820,727

2,279,093,900

-44,046,218

-44,046,218

-44,046,218

-44,046,218

-683,728,170

102,774,509

102,774,509

102,774,509

102,774,509

1,595,365,730
75,000,000
-160,000,000

102,774,509

102,774,509

102,774,509

102,774,509

1,202,042,203

1,304,816,712

1,407,591,221

1,510,365,730

1,670,365,730

90.0%

100.0%

90.0%

100.0%

TOTAL

14

15

2,000,000
1.7

2,000,000
1.7

30,000,000
1.8

28,582.62

28,582.62

453,959

63,013,244

63,013,244

1,000,798,589

Ko
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%

16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
20.0%
21.0%
22.0%
23.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
27.0%
28.0%
29.0%
30.0%
31.0%
32.0%
33.0%
34.0%
35.0%
36.0%
37.0%
38.0%
39.0%
40.0%
41.0%
42.0%
43.0%
44.0%
45.0%
46.0%
47.0%
48.0%
49.0%
50.0%
51.0%
52.0%
53.0%
54.0%
55.0%
56.0%
56.3%
57.0%
58.0%
59.0%

60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
68.0%
69.0%
70.0%
71.0%
72.0%
73.0%
74.0%
75.0%
76.0%
77.0%
78.0%
79.0%
80.0%
81.0%
82.0%
83.0%
84.0%
85.0%
86.0%
87.0%
88.0%
89.0%
90.0%

PASO N 05 : Finalmente calcularemos la sensibilidad del Cu

SENSIBILI
Precio Cu
NPV 9%

$0.6

$1.0

-$110,563,003

$7,848,403

$1,000,000,000

$800,000,000

VAN 9%

$600,000,000

$400,000,000

$200,000,000

$0
$0.0

-$200,000,000

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

VAN
$1,510,365,730
$1,359,529,537
$1,226,466,423
$1,108,772,629
$1,004,403,906
$911,617,388
$828,923,482
$755,045,957
$688,888,748
$629,508,283
$576,090,367
$527,930,809
$484,419,180
$445,025,127
$409,286,855
$376,801,380

$347,216,280
$320,222,700
$295,549,397
$272,957,668
$252,237,021
$233,201,469
$215,686,357
$199,545,627
$184,649,478
$170,882,337
$158,141,110
$146,333,671
$135,377,548
$125,198,782
$115,730,934
$106,914,226
$98,694,776
$91,023,947
$83,857,760
$77,156,391
$70,883,722
$65,006,948
$59,496,229
$54,324,383
$49,466,617
$44,900,284
$40,604,672
$36,560,812
$32,751,309
$29,160,193
$25,772,784
$22,575,572
$19,556,108
$16,702,910
$14,005,373
$11,453,695
$9,038,805
$6,752,297
$4,586,380
$2,533,820
$587,896
$0
-$1,257,643
-$3,008,614
-$4,670,437

-$6,248,166
-$7,746,519
-$9,169,901
-$10,522,430
-$11,807,959
-$13,030,095
-$14,192,217
-$15,297,495
-$16,348,901
-$17,349,228
-$18,301,098
-$19,206,977
-$20,069,187
-$20,889,911
-$21,671,207
-$22,415,015
-$23,123,163
-$23,797,379
-$24,439,293
-$25,050,443
-$25,632,286
-$26,186,197
-$26,713,481
-$27,215,369
-$27,693,029
-$28,147,569
-$28,580,038
-$28,991,430
-$29,382,691
-$29,754,716
-$30,108,358

nsibilidad del Cu
SENSIBILIDAD DEL Cu

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$155,862,660

$303,876,918

$451,891,175

$599,905,432

$747,919,689

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$/Lb Cu

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

3.5

$4.0
$895,933,947

$4.0

$4.5