Nurilia Fitri P.

(2514203202)
Logistics and Supply Chain Management
Demand and Revenue
2nd Assignment/ Sep 23, 2015

Lecturer : Prof. I Nyoman Punjawan, CSCP.

Double Exponential Smoothing (Holts) Method application is implemented in the following raw
data:
Mont
h
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mont
h
7
8
9
10
11
12

Dt
502
510
506
530
543
545
Dt
560
550
575
585
580
610

and assuming that the initial series is 505, the data will be analyzed using some combination of and .
Then, the precision of each forecasts will be counted using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean
Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Multi Factor Productivity (MFP).
The function of Holts Model are:
1.

S t Dt (1 )( S t 1 Tt 1 )

Tt ( S t S t 1 ) (1 )Tt 1
2.
3. The equation to generate forecast for the next p period
Ft p S t Tt p

where
St = exponential smoothing value
= the data smoothing constant (0 < < 1)
= the trend estimaton smoothing constant (0 < < 1)

Dt = actual value in p time period

Tt = trend estimation
p = total of the next period which will be forecasted


Month
0
1

0.2
Dt
502

510

506

530

543

545

560

550

575

10

585

11

580

12

610

St
505
506.8
509.74
4
511.30
43
517.24
65
524.85
53
531.70
52
540.45
11
545.83
87
555.23
21
565.14
21
572.46
73
584.47
81

0.1
Tt

0.1
Dt

502

3
2.88

508

2.8864

509.68

2.7537
92
3.0726
3
3.5262
47
3.8586
17
4.3473
39
4.4513
71
4.9455
69
5.4420
16
5.6303
33
6.2683
8

512.63
04
514.05
81
520.31
91
528.38
15
535.56
39
544.79
84
550.29
01
560.17
77
570.58
41
578.09
76
Sum

St

0.1
Tt

MAD

MSE

MAPE

^
Yt Yt

^ | ( Yt Yt
^ ) 2 ( Yt Yt
^ ) /Yt
|Yt Yt

Ft+k

Error

Mont
h
0
1

MFP

-6

36

0.32

0.32

0.1024

6.6304
15.941
89
22.680
88
16.618
46
24.436
15
5.2015
8
24.709
89
24.822
35
9.4158
6
31.902
36
163.41
9
13.618
25

6.6304

43.962
2
254.14
38
514.42
23
276.17
31
597.12
54
27.056
43
610.57
88
616.14
88
88.658
43
1017.7
6
4082.1
32
340.17
77

MFP

15.941
89
22.680
88
16.618
46
24.436
15
5.2015
8
24.709
89
24.822
35
9.4158
6
31.902
36
188.67
98
15.723
32

MAD

0.01195
0.00062
7
-0.0131
0.03007
9
0.04177
0.03049
3
0.04363
6
0.00945
7
0.04297
4
0.04243
1
0.01623
4
0.05229
9
0.28494
5
2.37453
8

MSE

MAPE

Ft+k

^
Yt Yt

^ |
|YtYt

^)
( Yt Yt

505
507.4

3
2.94

508

-6

36

510

510.30
6

2.9366

510.34

-0.34

0.34

0.1156

506

512.51
83

2.8641
74

513.24
26

7.2426

7.2426

52.45525
476

^ ) /Yt
( Yt Yt
0.011952
19
0.000666
67
0.014313
44

530

543

545

560

550

575

10

585

11

580

12

610

516.84
43
522.16
92
527.36
99
533.72
68
538.71
08
545.80
92
553.48
98
560.21
74
569.47

3.0103
49
3.2418
03
3.4376
93
3.7296
18
3.8550
54
4.1793
95
4.5295
09
4.7493
16
5.1996
49

515.38
25
519.85
46
525.41
1
530.80
76
537.45
64
542.56
58
549.98
86
558.01
93
564.96
67
Sum
Error

14.617
49
23.145
39
19.589
05
29.192
45
12.543
59
32.434
17
35.011
36
21.980
72
45.033
33
219.96
49
18.330
41

14.61748
6
23.14538
85
19.58904
69
29.19244
9
12.54358
64
32.43417
42
35.01136
15
21.98071
64
45.03332
87
247.1301
38
20.59417
81

213.6708
97
535.7090
107
383.7307
6
852.1990
805
157.3415
604
1051.975
657
1225.795
433
483.1518
937
2028.000
691
7020.145
838
585.0121
532

0.027580
162
0.042625
025
0.035943
205
0.052129
373
0.022806
521
0.056407
259
0.059848
481
0.037897
787
0.073825
129
0.382130
647
3.184422
054

No.
1.

0.2

0.1

2.

0.1

0.1

3.

0.3

0.1

4.

0.4

0.1

5. *

0.5

0.1

6.

0.1

0.2

7.

0.2

0.2

8.

0.3

0.2

9.

0.4

0.2

10. *

0.5

0.2

11.

0.1

0.3

12.

0.2

0.3

13.

0.5

0.3

14.

0.5

0.4

15.

0.5

0.5

16.

0.5

0.6

17. *

0.5

0.9

18.

0.1

0.5

19.

0.5

0.5

20.

0.6

0.5

21.

0.8

0.5

22.

0.9

0.5

23.

0.6

0.9

MFP
13.618
25
18.330
41
10.471
62
8.3874
2
6.9894
6
17.079
41
11.781
08
8.5019
3
6.5200
5
5.3101
9
15.871
30
10.112
90
4.1074
7
3.2853
8
2.7513
7
2.4227
9
2.0492
8
13.592
17
2.7513
7
2.5086
3
2.2603
0
2.2340
6
1.9051

MAD
15.72332

MSE
340.1777

20.59418

585.0122

12.62091

232.7134

11.66473

184.4816

11.25833

163.0812

19.31381

505.7348

13.85201

269.9642

11.67576

184.5234

11.06867

153.3683

10.71886

143.3416

18.07654

438.2354

12.27309

221.3407

10.32748

137.4608

10.04973

138.2440

9.873685

142.1813

10.05376

147.5819

11.02503

165.7043

15.73967

333.8902

9.87369

142.1813

10.51488

151.5440

11.70105

184.8775

12.21093
11.67443

211.3689
180.9232

MAPE
2.3745
38
3.1844
22
1.8298
19
1.4662
15
1.2203
75
2.9720
56
2.0610
42
1.4919
66
1.1442
83
0.9295
00
2.7667
48
1.7756
91
0.7193
46
0.5740
12
0.4780
50
0.4175
99
0.3444
30
2.3787
81
0.4780
50
0.4300
18
0.3785
13
0.3701
43
0.3160

24. *

0.7

0.9

25.

0.8

0.9

26.

0.9

0.9

27.

0.1

0.9

28.

0.9

0.1
min

1.

0.7

0.9

2.

0.5

0.5

3.

0.5

0.3

4.

0.8

0.9

4
1.8103
3
1.8463
6
1.9956
3
9.6195
3
4.4774
4
1.8103
3
MFP
1.810
33
2.751
37
4.107
47
1.846
36

12.29571

206.7406

12.97398

245.7627

14.81875

300.5574

12.40694

217.4021

11.24948

169.6876

9.873685

137.4608

MAD
12.29
571
9.873
69
10.32
748
12.97
398

MSE
206.7
406
142.1
813
137.4
608
245.7
627

MAPE
0.296
183
0.478
05
0.719
346
0.298
054

50
0.2961
83
0.2980
54
0.3189
88
1.7000
72
0.7707
28
0.2961
83

Error Distribution
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

2
MFP

MAD

MSE

MAPE

Error Value when 0.7 0.9

Mont MFP
h
1
-6

MAD

MSE

MAPE

36

48.720
4
30.507
95

6.98

6.98

5.5234

5.5234

22.205
32
5.5345
86
13.953
4
1.9908
3
19.480
1
21.351
07
5.1492
54
17.955

22.205
32
5.5345
86
13.953
42

493.07
63
30.631
64
194.69
8

1.9908
3
19.480
12

3.9634
04
379.47
49

21.351
07
5.1492
54
17.955
32

455.86
83
26.514
81
322.39
36

5
6

7
8

9
10
11

0.0119
5
0.0136
86
0.0109
2
0.0418
97
0.0101
93
0.0256
0.0035
55
0.0354
2
0.0371
32
0.0088
02
0.0309

12

3
21.425
16

21.425
16

459.03
74

6
0.0351
23

Error Value 0.7 0.9

MFP
MAD
MSE
MAPE

Mont
h
1
2
3

Dt
502
510
506

530

543

545

560

550

575

10

585

11

580

12

610

St (0.7;
0.9)
503.8
507.906
507.6570
2
523.3384
034
541.3396
243
549.1860
272
559.4027
51
555.8440
35
568.5946
781
583.4552
239
585.3865
965
603.5724
525

St (0.5;
0.5)
505
508.25
508.3125

St (0.5;
0.3)
505
508.55
508.5425

519.7656
25
534.5507
813
545.0556
641
557.7941
895
559.7149
048
570.7465
363
582.3257
179
586.2838
793
601.6919
901

520.1573
75
533.9412
063
543.1919
409
555.5885
171
557.4485
277
569.7612
538
581.7034
288
585.6690
02
601.8014
382

St (0.8;
0.9)
503.2
508.376
507.3804
8
525.3874
304
542.7098
706
547.9832
518
558.8899
867
553.8705
433
570.0798
634
584.8642
258
583.9188
557
604.9082
056

Holt's Model
700
600

Dt
St (0.7; 0.9)

500

St (0.5; 0.5)

400

St (0.5; 0.3)
St (0.8; 0.9)

300
200
100
0

10 11 12

From the tables and graphic above, known that the best forecast model which is suitable with the
existing data is when using initial series 505 and the value of (,) :
a)
b)
c)
d)

(0,7; 0,9)
(0,5; 0,5)
(0,5; 0,3)
(0,8; 0,9)

which the error value are minimum and predict data almost same with the actual.
Mont
h
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mont
h
7
8
9
10
11
12

Dt
502
510
506
530
543
545
Dt
560
550
575
585
580
610

mean
media
n
range

0.2
No.

549.66
67
547.5
502610

0.1
Initial
Series

1.

505

300

400

550

600

0.7

0.9
Initial
Series

No.
1.

505

300

400

550

600

MFP

MAD

MSE

MAPE

13.618
25
60.476
7
37.618
92
3.3322
49
8.0966
4

15.723
32
65.686
51
38.883
02
23.665
14

340.17
77
8335.3
76
2397.7
01
768.25
33

36.199
11

2165.6
54

2.3745
38
11.719
1
7.1607
75
0.3232
94
1.9558
7

MFP

MAD

MSE

MAPE

1.8103
3
1.7816
17
1.7956
24
1.8166
33
1.8236
36

12.295
71
41.418
32
24.351
57
19.487
08
28.869
02

206.74
06
4867.7
16
1325.0
35
543.27
89
1491.2
97

0.2961
83
0.3391
28
0.3181
79
0.2867
56
0.2762
82

From the table above, known that Initial series will be influence the Error, the best initial series is
when the value closer to mean of the data. Because in this case, the precision of forecast measurement
actually using mean to calculate MFP, MAD, MSE, and MAPE.