PROJECT PROPOSAL

Background:
Perhaps the most widely debated and arguably the most relevant topic of the 21 st Century is
Global Warming and Climatic change. While the scientists may argue on the scale and order of
the chaos, it is by far an uncontested reality that our world is heating up and the consequences
are scary. Scientific consensus on global warming is that the average temperature of the Earth
has risen between 0.4 and 0.8 C over the past 100 years. The increased volumes of carbon
dioxide (CO2 and other greenhouse gases released by the burning of fossil fuels, land clearing,
agriculture, and other human activities, are believed to be the primary sources of the global
warming that has occurred over the past 50 years. Scientists have recently predicted that average
global temperatures could increase between 1.4 and 5.8 C by the year 2100. The effects of
global warming are far-reaching, steadily intensifying, and encompass everything from extreme
weather to sea level rise, heat waves to air pollution, wildfires to melting ice.

Motivation:
Now, it is established beyond doubt that we have serious reasons to worry and as a responsible
global citizen I do. The fact that all of us, in some form, including the larger planet and its eco
system are under threat, it justifies my effort to examine the correlation between greenhouse
emission and the rising global temperature and do the forecasting. While such exercise may be
commercially attractive for many environmental consulting firms, personally I feel rewarded as
long as it serves the greater objective of environmental awareness.
Scientists have been able to measure the CO2 emission from fossil fuels and cement productions
and have also recorded the variation of global mean temperatures (Land and Ocean combined).
They present the variation in world mean temperature with respect to a benchmark temperature
of 14C [Mean global temperature in 1951-1980] and express the CO 2 emission in Million Metric
Tons of Carbon. Here is an attempt to look at the time series of both CO2 emission and Mean
Global Temperature (absolute) and decipher the role of this greenhouse gas in global warming.

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Data Source:
(i) Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US
Department of Energy and (ii) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies . The Carbon Dioxide
Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) is the primary climate-change data and information
analysis center of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). CDIAC is located at DOE's Oak Ridge
National Laboratory (ORNL) and includes the World Data Center for Atmospheric Trace
Gases. CDIAC's data holdings include estimates of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel
consumption and land-use changes; records of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and
other radiatively active trace gases; carbon cycle and terrestrial carbon management datasets and
analyses; and global/regional climate data and time series
Details of Time Series Data
Two time series (i) Total CO2 emission from Fossil Fuel and Cement Production ( Million Tons
of Carbon) and (ii) Actual Global Temp(C) will be examined from year 1880 to 2010 (131
observations each). Each time series is annual data and does not display any seasonality. Hence
no seasonal adjustment was necessary.
Methodology
I desire to estimate and forecast the Global Mean Temperature (Main time series) using the
assisting variable (Total CO2 emission).The data from 1880 to 2000 (121 observations) will be
used to estimate the model and the last 10 observations will be used to compare the forecast
accuracy.

Attachments:
Annexure I: Time series Data sets for (i) Total CO2 emission and (ii) Actual Global Temp(C)
Annexure II: Raw Data of Total CO2 emission as per report of (CDIAC)
Annexure III: Raw Data of Actual Global Temp(C) as per report of (CDIAC)

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