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PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

RHB RESEARCH INSTITUTE SDN. BHD.

马来西亚 RHB Research


技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE

2010 年 3 月 15 日

市场技术解读
料将试叩 1,300 点强大支撑线…

图 1∶富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)(日线图) 图 2∶富时大马综合指数(单日线图)

本地股市的交投指引∶

♦ 受来自周一多达 11 亿 6 千万股的 T+4 日逼仓活动的冲击,马股周五一再遭到抛风的打压。

♦ 由于投资者抛售综指相关大资本股,包括联昌集团(CIMB)(-20 仙)、马银行(Maybank)(-9 仙)和森那美


(Sime)(-9 仙),富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)再度急挫 10.23 点或 0.77%,以 1,311.20 点结束上周交易。

♦ 事实上,即使隔夜美国股市连续第 3 日反弹,但鉴于大部分亚洲股市的交投情绪都处于谨慎,迫使本地投资者在周末来临前
纷纷选择锁定近日的盈利。

♦ 中国上海综合指数因不断担忧有关当局可能会采取货币紧缩措施而下跌 1.24%,但是日经 225 指数却在市场猜测日本银行


(BoJ)可能会在本周的会议上宣布推行额外的货币宽松措施而升 0.81%。

♦ 总交投量降低至 7 亿 1 千 600 万股,低于前一天的 7 亿 9 千 200 万股。大盘涨跌家数比率保持下跌,有 436 只下跌股超


越 247 只上升股。

技术解读∶

♦ 由于卖压加剧,富时综指扩大前一日的利淡动力,从而更进一步转入负值区。

♦ 在图表上,在短期动力解读进一步转弱下,它连续形成第 2 根阴烛。

♦ 这也为该指数进一步往下调铺路,而回档目标设在 1,300.74 点至 1,312.18 点之间区域的低档技术缺口,以及接近 10 日


移动平均线(即 1,304 点)。

♦ 然而,我们深信,10 日移动平均线和 1,300 点心理关口将能够制止这轮跌风。

♦ 当前阻力维持在近日的 1,334.34 点高点,接下来则是位于 1,354.79 点的上档技术缺口。

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请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露( IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES)


2010 年 3 月 15 日

每日交投策略∶

♦ 上周五的跌势果然不出乎我们所料,主要因为富时综指在经过近来的凌厉涨势后,陷入了短暂性的整盘走势。

♦ 根据目前的技术解读而言,富时综指可能会持续回退至位于 1,300.74 点至 1,312.18 点之间区域的低档技术缺口,以及邻


近的 10 日移动平均线。

♦ 不过,我们仍对该指数最近冲破 1,300 点大关的技术突破走势有信心,即使它可能会在近日内重新试探该道心里关卡。

♦ 换言之,任何回退至 1,300 点的跌势料将会重新吸引新趁低吸购的回流。

♦ 为了重振其多头动力,富时综指必须重新收复 1,334.34 点高峰,以放眼上跳位于 1,354.79 点的上档技术缺口。

♦ 至于中期展望,我们认为,从该指数成功突围 1,300 点大关看来,它仍然放眼试叩 1,390 点主要阻力水平。

表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品
3月 3月 3月 3月 3月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 8日 9日 10 日 11 日 12 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%)
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,311.20 -10.23 -0.8
583 253 451 274 247
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 8,577.32 -62.48 -0.7
194 455 292 440 436
平盘 富时大马创业板 4,238.33 6.20 0.1
256 258 270 276 272
无交易 各大海外指数
304 375 330 354 389
道琼斯工商指数 10,624.69 12.85 0.1
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,367.66 -0.80 0.0
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,149.99 -0.25 0.0
(百万股) 1,161 798 934 792 716 伦敦金融时报指数 5,625.65 8.39 0.1
总成交值 恒生指数 21,209.74 -18.46 -0.1
(百万令吉) 2,259 1,453 1,619 1,347 1,336 雅加达综合指数 2,666.51 -10.01 -0.4
东京日经 225 指数 10,751.26 86.31 0.8
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,662.74 6.12 0.4
令吉兑美元 3.3380 3.3410 3.3180 3.3170 3.3055 上海综合指数 3,013.41 -37.87 -1.2
曼谷综合指数 733.34 7.39 1.0
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 富时新加坡海峡时报指
数 2,881.36 7.45 0.3
台湾加权指数 7,748.33 -1.33 0.0
印度 Sensex 指数 17,166.62 -1.34 0.0
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 81.24 -0.87 -1.1
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,649.00 -11.00 -0.4
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 1 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
26 日-27 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 3 月 16 日
委员会(FOMC)会议

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2010 年 3 月 15 日

图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图) 图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)

技术解读∶

♦ 尽管现货市场出现强大的卖压,但本地期货指数周五成功在温和的趁低吸购活动下从低点回升。

♦ 自从期指在早盘一度反弹至 1,326.50 点高点后,卖压便恢复,使到吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)全日不断处于强大的抛压


下。

♦ 惟在临尾购兴的扶持下,FKLI 成功从 1,312.0 点低点回弹。全日而言,3 月份期约下滑了 5.00 点或 0.38%,报


1,316.00 点。

♦ 技术而言,随着它在图表上创下第 2 根阴烛,这显示卖压动力将会延续。

♦ 此外,鉴于短期动力指标向下转低,我们预料温和的卖压可能会扩大至 1,305 点至 1,311 点之间区域的低档技术缺口,即


靠近 10 日移动平均线(即 1,306 点)。

♦ 虽然本周出现回调风险,但处于上升趋势的 10 日移动平均线和 1,300 点突破点应会限制当前的下跌压力。

♦ 这意味着当 FKLI 逼近 1,300 点心理关口时,趁低吸购活动料将重现。

♦ 在上涨方面,当前阻力线维持在 1,337 点。FKLI 的较高目标则是处于 1,348 点的上档技术缺口。

每日交投策略∶

♦ 即日可能会出现进一步的跌势,但我们深信 1,300 点阻力转为支撑水平(resistance-turn-support level)将能站稳。

♦ 相反地,交易员应放眼在 1,300 点部署入场,并准备再度“做多”。

♦ 期指今日料将在 1,306 点至 1,320 点之间波动。

表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份) 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 3 月 1324.50 1326.50 1312.00 1316.00 -5.00 1316.00 5201 18776
10 年 4 月 1323.50 1325.50 1312.00 1314.00 -4.50 1315.00 688 635
10 年 6 月 1322.00 1326.00 1311.00 1314.00 -4.50 1315.00 200 544
10 年 9 月 1324.50 1324.50 1308.00 1313.50 -4.50 1313.00 75 219

资料来源∶大马交易所( Bursa Malaysia)

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2010 年 3 月 15 日

图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)

美国股市的交投指引∶

♦ 美股周五收盘时起落参半,主要因为零售和消费者信心数据好坏参半。

♦ 较早前,投资者对于 2 月份零售销售出人意表地取得 0.3% 的增幅感到雀跃,基于该数据远高于市场所预期将取得 0.2%


跌幅的预测。

♦ 不过,随着密西根大学(University of Michigan)的消费者情绪指数从 2 月的 73.6 点,下降至 3 月初的 72.5 点后,温


和的套利活动开始显现。经济学家原以为该指数将会上升至 74 点。

♦ 通用电气(General Electric)和 Caterpillar 分别以 3.4% 和 2.5% 的升势崛起为道指的主要推动股,从而抵消了银行股


如美国银行(Bank of America)(-1.6%)的套利活动。

♦ 由于市场对于消费者情绪报告感到失望,所以美国轻质原油期货的 4 月份期约下挫 0.87 美元或 1.1%,收每桶 81.24 美


元。

技术解读∶

道琼斯工商指数 (Dow Jones Industrial Average 或 DJIA)

♦ 美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)上周五起了 12.85 点或 0.12% 至 10,624.69 点,但却低于 10,644.95 点的全日最高点。

♦ 从它形成一根潜在的“黄昏星型态”(evening star)看来,该指数出现可能会稍微回调的风险。

♦ 不过,从动力解读持续获得改善看来,任何的短期弱势将会受到 21 日移动平均线 (即 10,402 点)所制止。

♦ 在上涨方面,它必须重拾近日的 10,644.95 点高点,以扩大当前的多头动力至 1 月的 10,729.89 点高峰,以及 10,850


点强大阻力。

纳斯达克指数 (Nasdaq Composite 或 Nasdaq)

♦ 在一连 6 日走高后,公牛终于弃权,而纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq Composite Index)也微跌了 0.80 点或 0.03% 至


2,367.66 点。

♦ 从它在 7 个交易日来首次形成一根阴烛看来,图表建议将出现更多套利活动。

♦ 有鉴于此,它料将会回退至 2,330 点阻力转为支撑水平。可是,我们还是认为,2,330 点将会是一道强大的扶持点。

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2010 年 3 月 15 日

每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶陈唱摩多(TChong)(日线图) 图 8∶陈唱摩多(单日线图)

陈唱摩多 Tan Chong Motor Holdings (4405)

本周初将出现跟进升势…

♦ 在一系列稳健购兴的支撑下,陈唱摩多于 2009 年 8 月成功破除了 1.82 令吉关口,并连接多月不断往上趋高。

♦ 在上升趋势扩大下,该股于 2009 年 12 月冲破了 2.45 令吉关卡,然后才加强其上升动力,并在 2010 年 1 月创下超过 10


年高峰,报 3.61 令吉。

♦ 可是,该强劲涨势却引来庞大的抛风,更一度威胁了长达 15 个月来的升势趋势。

♦ 惟在 2 月触及 2.68 令吉的低点,即靠近 2.80 令吉关键支撑水平后,该股便开始反弹,并即刻重振之前的多头情绪。

♦ 周五,该股再次冲破 3.36 令吉阻力水平,然后才以一根多头阳烛报收于 3.39 令吉。

♦ 技术而言,在获得正面的动力解读下,它记录了一根正面的短期多头形态,反映出本周初将出现跟进涨势。

♦ 当前的图表目标为 1 月的 3.61 令吉高峰,即接近 3.65 令吉阻力线。一旦动力加剧,这将会带领它试叩 4.00 令吉水平。

技术解读∶

♦ 10 日移动平均线(10-day SMA): RM3.287

♦ 40 日移动平均线(40-day SMA): RM3.163

♦ 支撑水平: IS = RM3.36 S1 = RM3.10 S2 = RM2.80

♦ 阻力水平: IR = RM3.65 R1 = RM4.00

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.

RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.

“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.

This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.

The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.

Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:


Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.

RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.

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