You are on page 1of 14

Assignment C

Probability Distribution.

Introduction.
In this course work, we are to investigate the approximation of Binomial
distribution in different circumstances by using Poisson and Normal
Distributions.
These approximations make the calculation less tedious.
The variables, p, the constant probability and , n , the number of trials are
varied.
The probabilities are tabulated using three different distributions for the
purpose of comparison. These comparisons are also shown graphically. The
investigative study and conclusions are drawn from both the tables and
graphs.
Methodology.
The formula for Binomial (n,p) is P(X=r) = nCr p r q n r where q=1-p .
For the Poisson (), P(X=r) =

e r
, where =np.
r!

For the Normal distribution, XN( , 2 ),


P(X=r) = P(r - 0.5 X r + 0.5)
=P(

r 0.5
r 0.5
z
),

Where = np and 2 = npq .


Manual calculations are done for n = 5 for all three distributions calculation
using p= 0.05, p=0.1 and p=0.5 .

The excel spread sheets are used for the subsequent calculation where n=10
and n=20 for all the different distributions for p=0.05, p=0.1 and p=0.5.
The excel spreadsheets are also used to generate the respective graphs.
Comparisons and investigations on the best method of approximation to
Binomial Distribution where the, n, increased and the , p, varied are then
made.
Result.
Assingment C (2015)
A) For, n = 5, p=0.05, so q=0.95,
1. Binomial Distribution:
X
P(X=r) =
N
5

x
P(X=x
)

0
0.77378

1
0.20363

2
0.021434

3
0.0011281

4
2.9688x10-5

5
3.125x10-7

2. Poisson Distribution:
X
= 5 x 0.05=0.25
P(X=r) =
n
5

r
0
P(X=r) 0.77880

1
0.19470

2
0.024338

3
4
2.0281x10-3 1.26758x10-4

5
6.3379x10-6

3. Normal Distribution:
X
Z=
n
5

r
0
P(X=r) 0.63411

1
0.29882

Summary n = 5, p=0.05,
x

2
5.1577
x10-5
so q=0.95

Binomi
al
Poisson Normal
0.7737 0.7788 0.63411
0
81
01
44

3
1.9496
x10-6

4
1.2960
x10-11

5
1.3995
x10-18

1
2
3
4
5

0.2036
27
0.0214
34
0.0011
28
2.97E05
3.13E07

n = 5, p=0.05,

n = 10, p=0.05,
x
0
1
2
3
4
5

0.1947
0.0243
38
0.0020
28
0.0001
27
6.34E06

0.29881
99
0.00515
76
1.948E06
1.289E11
0

so q=0.95

so q=0.95

Binom Poisso
ial
n
0.000
0.006
977
738
0.009
0.033
766
69
0.043
0.084
945
224
0.117
0.140
188
374
0.205
0.175
078
467
0.246
0.175
094
467

Norma
l
0.0019
61
0.0112
15
0.0434
95
0.1144
68
0.2045
24
0.2481
7

6
7
8
9
10

0.205
078
0.117
188
0.043
945
0.009
766
0.000
977

0.146
223
0.104
445
0.065
278
0.036
266
0.018
133

n = 10, p=0.05,

so q=0.95

n = 20, p=0.05,

so q=0.95

x
0
1
2
3

Binom Poisso
ial
n
9.54E- 4.54E07
05
1.91E0.000
05
454
0.000
0.002
181
27
0.001
0.007

0.2045
24
0.1144
68
0.0434
95
0.0112
15
0.0019
61

Norma
l
9.43E06
6.12E05
0.0003
26
0.0014

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

087
0.004
621
0.014
786
0.036
964
0.073
929
0.120
134
0.160
179
0.176
197
0.160
179
0.120
134
0.073
929
0.036
964
0.014
786
0.004
621
0.001
087
0.000
181
1.91E05
9.54E07

n = 20, p=0.05,

567
0.018
917
0.037
833
0.063
055
0.090
079
0.112
599
0.125
11
0.125
11
0.113
736
0.094
78
0.072
908
0.052
077
0.034
718
0.021
699
0.012
764
0.007
091
0.003
732
0.001
866

so q=0.95

27
0.0051
28
0.0151
33
0.0366
77
0.0730
14
0.1193
91
0.1603
64
0.1769
37
0.1603
64
0.1193
91
0.0730
14
0.0366
77
0.0151
33
0.0051
28
0.0014
27
0.0003
26
6.12E05
9.43E06

B) For, n = 5, p=0.1 ,
so q=0.9,
1. Binomial Distribution:
N
x
0
1
2
5
P(X=x 0.59049 0.32805 0.07290
)
2. Poisson Distribution:
N
r
0
1
5
P(X=r 0.60653 0.30327
)

2
0.075816

3. Normal Distribution:
N
r
0
1
2
5
P(X=r 0.43198 0.43198 0.066584
)
Summary n = 5, p=0.1 ,
so q=0.9
x

Binomi
al
Poisson Normal
0.5904 0.6065 0.43198
0
9
31
14
0.3280 0.3032 0.43198
1
5
65
14
0.0758 0.06658
2 0.0729
16
4
0.0126 0.00143
3 0.0081
36
07
0.0004 0.0015 3.871E4
5
8
06
0.0000 0.0001 1.239E5
1
58
09

3
8.1x10-3

4
4.5x10-4

5
1x10-5

3
0.012636

4
1.5795x10-3

5
1.57951
x10-4

3
1.4307
x10-3

4
3.8744x10-6

5
1.2437x10-9

n = 5, p=0.1 ,

n = 10, p=0.1 ,

x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

so q=0.9

so q=0.9

Binom Poisso
ial
n
0.348
0.367
678
879
0.387
0.367
42
879
0.193
0.183
71
94
0.057
0.061
396
313
0.011
0.015
16
328
0.001
0.003
488
066
0.000
0.000
138
511
8.75E7.3E06
05
3.65E- 9.12E07
06
1.01E9E-09
06

Norma
l
0.2421
58
0.4018
39
0.2421
58
0.0527
19
0.0040
92
0.0001
11
1.05E06
3.36E09
3.65E12
0

10

1E-10

1.01E07

n = 10, p=0.1 ,

so q=0.9

n = 20, p=0.1 ,

so q=0.9

x
0
1
2
3
4

Binom Poisso
ial
n
0.121
0.135
577
335
0.270
0.270
17
671
0.285
0.270
18
671
0.190
0.180
12
447
0.089
0.090

Norma
l
0.1005
73
0.2229
18
0.2906
12
0.2229
18
0.1005

19

779
0.031
921
0.008
867
0.001
97
0.000
356
5.27E05
6.44E06
6.51E07
5.42E08
3.71E09
2.06E10
9.15E12
3.18E13
8.31E15
1.54E16
1.8E18

20

1E-20

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

n = 20, p=0.1 ,

224
73
0.036 0.0266
089
6
0.012 0.0041
03
46
0.003 0.0003
437
77
0.000 2.01E859
05
0.000 6.22E191
07
3.82E- 1.12E05
08
6.94E- 1.18E06
10
1.16E- 7.14E06
13
1.78E- 2.55E07
15
2.54E08
0
3.39E09
0
4.24E10
0
4.99E11
0
5.54E12
0
5.83E13
0
5.83E14
0

so q=0.9

C) For n = 5, p=0.5, so q=0.5,


1. Binomial Distribution:
N
x
0
1
5
P(X=x 0.03125 0.15625
)

2
0.3125

3
0.3125

4
0.15625

5
0.03125

2. Poisson Distribution:
N
r
0
1
5
P(X=r 0.082085 0.20521
)

2
0.25652

3
0.21376

4
0.13360

5
0.066801

3. Normal Distribution:
N
r
0
1
5
P(X=r 0.033174 0.14873
)

2
0.31445

3
0.31445

4
0.14873

5
0.033174

Summary n = 5, p=0.5,
x

so q=0.5

Binomi
al
Poisson Normal
0.0312 0.0820 0.03317
0
5
85
4
0.1562 0.2052 0.14872
1
5
12
75
0.2565 0.31445
2 0.3125
16
33
0.2137 0.31445
3 0.3125
63
33
0.1562 0.1336 0.14872
4
5
02
75

0.0312
5

n = 5, p=0.5,

n = 10, p=0.5,
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

0.0668
01

0.03317
4

so q=0.5

so q=0.5

Binom Poisso
ial
n
0.000
0.006
977
738
0.009
0.033
766
69
0.043
0.084
945
224
0.117
0.140
188
374
0.205
0.175
078
467
0.246
0.175
094
467
0.205
0.146
078
223
0.117
0.104
188
445
0.043
0.065
945
278

Norma
l
0.0019
61
0.0112
15
0.0434
95
0.1144
68
0.2045
24
0.2481
7
0.2045
24
0.1144
68
0.0434
95

9
10

0.009
766
0.000
977

0.036 0.0112
266
15
0.018 0.0019
133
61

n = 10, p=0.5,

so q=0.5

n = 20, p=0.5,

so q=0.5

x
0
1
2
3
4

Binom Poisso
ial
n
9.54E- 4.54E07
05
1.91E0.000
05
454
0.000
0.002
181
27
0.001
0.007
087
567
0.004
0.018
621
917

Norma
l
9.43E06
6.12E05
0.0003
26
0.0014
27
0.0051
28

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

0.014
786
0.036
964
0.073
929
0.120
134
0.160
179
0.176
197
0.160
179
0.120
134
0.073
929
0.036
964
0.014
786
0.004
621
0.001
087
0.000
181
1.91E05
9.54E07

n = 20, p=0.5,

0.037
833
0.063
055
0.090
079
0.112
599
0.125
11
0.125
11
0.113
736
0.094
78
0.072
908
0.052
077
0.034
718
0.021
699
0.012
764
0.007
091
0.003
732
0.001
866

so q=0.5

0.0151
33
0.0366
77
0.0730
14
0.1193
91
0.1603
64
0.1769
37
0.1603
64
0.1193
91
0.0730
14
0.0366
77
0.0151
33
0.0051
28
0.0014
27
0.0003
26
6.12E05
9.43E06

Conclusion.
From the results, it can be seen that :
i)

the Poisson distribution is a good approximation to the Binomial


distribution when the, p , is small and, n, is big.

ii)

The Normal distribution is a good approximation to the Binomial


distribution when p is 0.5 and the, n is big.

Hence , when doing approximation for Binomial distribution, the


appropriate distribution should be choosen carefully.
To affirm the above conclusion, we can substitute different values of n and
p.

You might also like