Probabilistic Assessment of Fracture Mechanics of Low Pressure Turbine

Disk Keyway
Lieh Chen ()1, Lih-jier Young()2 and Shih-teng Lin ()2
1
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Ta Hwa Institute of Technology,
No. 1, Dahua Rd., Qionglin Shiang, Hsinchu County, 307, Taiwan, R.O.C.
Tel: 03-592-7700-2755, Fax: 03-592-6848
Email: ietch@thit.edu.tw
2
Department of Applied Mathematics, Chung-Hua University,
No. 707, Sec. 2, Wufu Rd., Hsinchu, 30012, Taiwan, R.O.C.
Tel: 03-518-6392, Fax: 03-518-6435
Email: young@chu.edu.tw, steng.lin@msa.hinet.net
Abstract
This study presents the development of a fracture mechanics-based probability analysis which can be used to
estimate the remaining life of the low pressure turbine against unstable fracture in the rotor disk keyway.
Analysis focuses on the stability of crack growth of a semi-elliptical flaw in the rotor disk keyway. The crack
stability is judged on the basis of the linear elastic fracture mechanics. Then the Monte Carlo technique is
introduced to deal with several random variables. Based on the evaluation results, the probability of failure of
observed crack indications can be determined. The inspection interval could be justified.
Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic fracture mechanics, stress corrosion cracking, fracture
appearance transition temperature

1. Introduction

Many variables are involved in estimating the

The electric power and the electric component

remaining life of low pressure turbine disks such as

demand have been increasing sharply. However, the

fatigue crack growth rate, fracture toughness, stress

new

of

intensity factor as a function of crack size, material

withstanding stress corrosion cracking for large low

stress corrosion cracking rate as function of

pressure turbines and rotors have not yet been

environment, and loading conditions. To examine the

developed. As an observation, many low pressure

integrity of the cracked low pressure turbine disk,

turbines are subjected to stress corrosion cracking in

both

wet bore, keyway, and dovetail area experienced

mechanics are used. Deterministic fracture mechanics

wetness in operation. Catastrophic failure of the disk

(DFM) method is used to ascertain allowable flaw

could occur if the cracks grow to critical size. It is,

size, while probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) is

therefore, one of the major concerns for the power

an alternative for determining inspection interval. The

industry to limit the probability that disk will burst

Monte Carlo technique is one of numerical

and generate turbine missiles.

probabilistic analysis approaches that are amendable

materials

which

are

fully

capable

deterministic

and

probabilistic

fracture

to statistical problems governed by a certain amount

i j

of random variables.
There are many literatures focusing on choosing

fi j ..........

2 r

(1)

Where r is a distance from crack tip, and is the

random variables in Monte Carlo simulation.

angle with respect to crack plane.

However, only a few studies adopted Monte Carlo

Equation (1) indicates that the local stress near a flaw

method in analyzing the structural integrity of

depend on the product of the nominal stress and the

cracked structures. Viswanathan (1984) estimated the

square root of the flaw size a. This product is called

remaining life of the rotor with Monte Carlo

stress

simulation [1]. Sire and Kokorakis (1991) assessed

fundamental relationship.

intensity

factor

to

emphasize

this

the fatigue factor of container ship [2]. Zhu and Lin

The crack growth of the disk due to fatigue or

(1992) studied the aviation structure of fatigue crack

stress corrosion is predicted in accordance with the

growth under random loading [3]. Liao and Yang

theory of the conventional fracture mechanics. The

(1992) performed a probabilistic evaluation on

dependence of the fatigue crack growth rate [8, 9, 10]

fatigue crack growth of aluminum-alloy [4]. Rosario

on stress intensity factor can be conveniently

and Roberts [5] conducted a remaining life evaluation

represented as follows:

for a low pressure turbine disk in 1997.

K th
1-

Low pressure turbine disks are exposed to a

damaging

da
C (K ) m
dN

mechanisms include high cycle fatigue, low cycle,

highly

wetted

environment,

whose

n1

n 2
K max

Kc

n3

(2)

and stress corrosion cracking. These conditions can

where da / dN is the fatigue crack growth rate, K th

cause cracking of blade-fit area and keyway at bore

is the threshold value of stress Intensity factor, K c is

of disks. Therefore, our study tries to integrate

critical value, and n and C are constants depending on

deterministic fracture mechanics with probabilistic

the material and environmental conditions. This

analysis in a consistent and convenient manner to

typically results in a graph of the form in Fig. 2. It is

facilitate remaining life evaluation. Fig. 1 is a

noted that the graph exhibits a threshold stress

schematic drawing of a typical low pressure turbine

intensity factor below which cracks will not

disk with a keyway and a rotor.

propagate.

2. Theoretical Investigations

2.1 Finite element stress analysis

The theory proposed by Griffith [6] in 1920

This section is not an integral part of fracture

explained that it was the total energy release causing

analysis method, and will not be treated in detail.

the crack growth. Then the stress intensity factor, KI,

However, the determination of stress profile through

developed by Irwin [7], is a one parameter

the disk constituting one of the basic inputs to the

representation of the stresses in the area of a crack

fracture mechanics analysis. The general purpose

tip. It is a purely numerical quantity providing

finite element computer program ANSYS [11], was

complete knowledge of the stress field at the crack

utilized to perform finite element analysis.

tip, which is defined as follows:

2.1.1 Loading and Boundary Conditions

Two-dimensional axisymmetric finite element

K I hoop

model of the subject disks was constructed to

determine near bore disk stresses due to centrifugal

(5)

where

effects using ANSYS computer program. It is noted

Q 1 1. 464 b

that an equivalent traction is applied on the disk OD

1. 65

hoop is the hoop stress, a is the surface length, b is

to simulate the blade centrifugal loading, which is

b
b b t
b
Fi , , , , G j
Q
t
a t R

N Fcentrif

(3)

Acontact

radial depth, R is outside diameter, t is the thickness,

is the angle, Fi is the boundary-correction factor,

where N is the number of blades, Fcentrif is the

and G j is the influence coefficients corresponding to

centrifugal force per blade, and Acontact is rim contact

the jth stress distribution. The coefficients of the

area.

polynomial expression are used in equation (5) to

The axial displacements at the center of the disk

calculate the stress intensity factor corresponding to

are all fixed to simulate half-symmetry as the

the crack depth, b, and to the stress profile

imposed boundary condition. The resulting disk/shaft

represented by both finite element solution for hoop

finite element model is shown in Fig. 3.

and stress concentration factor given in equation (4).

The same procedure can then repeated at various

2.1.2 Stress Concentrating Effect of Keyway

crack aspect ratios. Fig. 5 shows stress intensity

In order to perform stress intensity factor

factor profiles obtained at various crack aspect ratios.

calculation for cracks emanating from the high stress

gradient area in the disk keyway/bore, a stress

2.3 Fracture Toughness

concentration factor ( K t ) of 2.2 [12] for GE axial

The material property pertinent to the present

keyway design was utilized. The stress concentration

fracture mechanics analysis method is the plane strain

factor profile can be obtained by varying radial

fracture toughness which is a function of temperature.

distance ( x ) from the crown of the keyway which is

The method predicts that crack instability occurs

expressed as:

when the stress intensity factor K I

R
R

Kt x 1 Kt 1 0.25
0.75 R x
R

equals the

material fracture toughness K IC .

The great majority of low pressure turbine
materials are built from ASTM A471 (3.5% Ni-Cr-

(4)

Mo-V) forgings for which a large number of

Where R is the keyway depth. Then the stress

toughness data have been generated. Since disk-

profile acting normally to the plane containing the

specific fracture mechanics ( K IC ) data is not

crack can be immediately determined.

available, generic disk toughness for GE low turbines

2.2 Stress Intensity Factor

Stress intensity factor expressions for surface flaw
in a cylinder shown in Fig. 4 have been determined
using finite element models [13], the stress intensity
factor is expressed as:

were utilized to estimate K IC [14]. Fig. 6 is a

schematic

drawing

temperature

for

of

typical

disk
low

toughness

versus

pressure

turbine

materials. They can be fitted to a hyperbolic tangent

cure such that,

 T T0

K IC A B tanh
Where

T0

is

fracture

appearance

(6)

the critical size ( acr ) and the crack growth rate (

da / dt ), expressed by the following relationship,

transition

trem

temperature (FATT), T is disk temperature, A, B and

C are constants.

acr ai
da / dt

(8)

3. Monte Carlo Simulation

2.4 Crack Growth Rate

Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyze the

Crack growth due to stress corrosion cracking

uncertainty growth from each input variable to stress

(SCC) is the dominant mechanism in this analysis.

corrosion cracking life. The proposed method

The most widely accepted SCC crack growth

combines deterministic fracture mechanics with

equation used in the analysis of cracking in LP

probabilistic

turbines is given by Clark et al. of Westinghouse [15]

relationships in matrix form between the various key

parameters. The essence of this approach is to assign

da
7302

C1 -
0.0278 y
T
dt

ln

(7)

fracture

mechanics

to

develop

mean values and statistical distributions to all of the

key variables affecting the problem. Some key

where C1 is a material constant with a mean value of

parameters used in deterministic fracture mechanics

-4.968, and a standard deviation of 0.587, T is the

analyses of LP turbine rotor disks are known to vary

R , y is the

significantly, and can be assumed to behave in a

yield strength in ksi, and da / dt is the growth rate in

random manner. These random variables adopted in

inch/hour.

this paper are hoop stress, overspeed possibility,

operating temperature of the disk in

fracture appearance transition temperature, operating

2.5 Critical crack size determination
Initiation crack depth can be determined during
the service time at the intersection between the stress
intensity factor K I and fracture toughness K IC .
From the determination of acr , it should be possible
to conclude that the low pressure turbine disk bore
integrity would be maintained in the case of severe
event such as the overspeed resulting from an
abnormal operation. However, the critical flaw crack
size is essentially dependent on stresses, flaw
geometry and disk material fracture toughness. These
parameters are dependent one another, and have
strong influence on critical crack depth and therefore
remaining life.
2.6 Estimating remaining life
Remaining life of LP turbine disks for keyway
cracking is calculated by the initial crack size ( ai ),

temperature, fracture toughness with and without

prewarming, crack model, initial crack size, stress
growth coefficient, and yield strength of the material.
The stress intensity factor and crack growth are
calculated deterministically for a few chosen standard
deviation of the above mentioned random variables.
These results were put into matrix form for use in the
probabilistic failure evaluation of low pressure
turbine. Performing each Monte Carlo iteration, a
random number is generated for each random
variable. The corresponding standard deviation is
calculated and is used to determine the stress
intensity factor at any time between initial crack
growth and final failure. Therefore, the time for the
crack to propagate from an initial flaw size to the
critical flaw size is obtained.

failure of 10 4 , continued operation for another

3.1 Linear Congruential Generator

In this paper, the Random Number Generator is

8.5 and 7.5 year-period can be justified for the

made by Linear Congruential Generator, the equation

case

0.25

inch

initial

is

withprewarming

and

without

Yi 1 AYi C

MOD M

crack

depth

prewarming

respectively.

(9)

where Y0 is the seed, A is the constant multiplier, C

of

4.

With limiting probability of catastrophic disk

failure of 10 4 , continued operation for another

is the increment, and M is the modulus.

8.5 and 7.0 year-period can be justified for the

3.2 Flow diagram for life assessment

case of 0.34 inch initial crack depth with

By applying the input data to the analysis scheme

prewarming

as shown in Fig. 6, the critical crack size, the

and

without

prewarming

respectively.

probabilities of crack initiation, crack growth and

References

failure could be assessed.

[1]

4. Results and conclusions

Taylor, Probabilistic Structure Life Prediction

System

the disk keyway with and without prewarming and

Growth Under Random Loading, Engineering

Fracture Mechanics, Vol. 43, No. 1, Sep, 1992,

prewarming and each with an initial crack of 0.34

pp.1-12.
[4] M. Liao, Q. X. Yang, Probabilistic Model for

three major findings are:

Fatigue Crack Growth, Engineering Fracture

LP turbine with prewarming can significantly

Mechanics, Vol. 43, No. 4, Nov, 1992, pp.651-

increase the remaining life of LP turbine disk.

of 0.12inch initial crack depth with prewarming

and without prewarming respectively.
3.

With limiting probability of catastrophic disk

and

[3] W. Q. Zhu, Y. K. Lin, Y. Lei, On Fatigue Crack

remaining life for the disk keyway with and without

9 and 8 year-period can be justified for the case

Repair

50, No. 1-3, Apr. 1991, pp.297-315.

Fig. 12 and 13 show the

failure of 10 4 , continued operation for another

Ship

Aging of Materials and Lifetime Assessment, Vol.

are the plots for the disk keyway with and without

With limiting probability of catastrophic disk

Container

Vessels and Piping, International Colloquium on

shown in Fig. 8 and 9, respectively. Fig. 10 and 11

2.

for

Inspection, International Journal of Pressure

each with an initial crack depth of 0.12 inch are

1.

and

[2] R. A. Sire, J. E. Kokarakis, C. H. Wells, R. K.

disk has also been predicted. The remaining life for

inch, respectively. By carrying out this investigation,

Assessment

New York, 1984.

disk has been assessed, and the crack growth of the

inch, respectively.

Lift

Power Plants, EPRI CS4160, Pergamon Press,

analysis for LP turbine disk keyway was performed.

prewarming and each with an initial crack of 0.25

Viswanathan,

Improvement of Turbogenerator Rotors for Fossil

A stress and probabilistic fracture mechanics

Through this investigation, the remaining life of the

R.

655.
[5]

Darryl

A.

Rosario,

Blaine

W.

Roberts

Probabilistic Assessment of Failure by Stress

Corrosion Cracking in Shrunk-On Disks of Low
Pressure Turbines, EPRI Steam Turbine Stress
Corrosion Cracking Conference, March 19-20,
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A221, 1920, p.163.

ASME/IEEE

Power

Generation

Conference,

October 1981.

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Near The End of a Crack Transversing a Plate,
Trans. of ASME, Journal of Applied Mechanics,
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[8] D. W. Heoppnre and W. E. Krupp,
of Component Life by

Disk

Keyway
Predication

R1

Application of Fatigue

Crack Growth Knowledge, Engineering Fracture

R2

Rotor

x
z

Mechanics, Vol.6, 1974, p.47.

[9] J. W. Barsom, Fatigue Crack Propagation in

Fig. 1 Schematics of Axial Rotor-Disk Keyway

steels of Various Yield Strengths, Transaction

ASME, Journal of Engineering Industrial, Series

Log Scale

B, No. 4, November 1971, p.1190.

II

[10] R. G. Forman and V. E. Kearney and R. M.

Engle, Numerical Analysis of Crack Propagation

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K th

Kc

Log Scale

[11] , ANSYS 7.0

, 2004,2.

Fig. 2 Schematic representation of fatigue crack

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Fracture Analysis of Shrink-On Steam Turbine
Disks, EPRI Report NP-3340, Rrsearch Project
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Stienstra,

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t
b

Procedures for Estimating the Probability of

Steam

Turbine

Corrosion

Disc

Cracking,

Rupture
presented

from

Stress

at

Joint.

R1

Fig. 4 Crack model

1142000
.
2
4
1
1800
6
0
4200.024.048.072.096.120.14.168.192.16.240.264.28.312.36.360.384.08
ai

Fig. 5 Stress intensity factor profiles obtained at

K
IC
B
A
B
C

Temperature
Fig. 6 Hyperbolic tangent curve showing the
graphical interpretation of the parameters.

50.00

40.00

various crack aspect ratios (900 rpm).

30.00

Input data

D ot/Lines show M ean

20.00

Times 1~10000

10.00

Select var. min/max value

0.00

Read random var.

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

Y EA R

Calculate the physical property

Fig. 8 Probabilistic frequency versus remaining

life without prewarming (0.12 in)

Simulate the crack model

40.00

Calculate the crack size

30.00

Stress Corrosion Cracking

20.00

Estimating remaining life

10.00

Output data

0.00

0.00

Fig. 7 Flow diagram for a scheme of remaining life

evaluation

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

Y EA R

Fig. 9 Probabilistic frequency versus remaining

life with prewarming (0.12 in)

D ot/Lines show M e

D ot/Lilife
nes show
M eans
without

prewarming (0.34 in)

60.00

D ot/Lines show M e

40.00

40.00

20.00

0.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

Y EA R

0.00

0.00

5.00

Fig. 10 Probabilistic frequency versus remaining

life without prewarming (0.25 in)

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

Y EA R

Fig. 11 Probabilistic frequency versus remaining life

with prewarming (0.25 in)

D ot/Lines show M eans

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

Y EA R

D ot/Lilife
nes show
M eansprewarming
with

Fig. 13 Probabilistic frequency versus remaining

40.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

0.00

20.00

30.00

15.00

20.00

Y EA R

Fig. 12 Probabilistic frequency versus remaining

(0.34 in)