Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1
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5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
edio Mvil
dos
propiado
semanas
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
Pronstico
Error de
Pronstico
Error
Absoluto
MAD
N=4
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
Pronstico
Error de
Pronstico
Error
Absoluto
MAD
Pronstico
Error de
Pronstico
Error
Absoluto
MAD
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
N=5
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
edio Mvil
dos
propiado
semanas
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
Pronstico
Error de
Pronstico
Error
Absoluto
PROMEDIO DE 2 DATOS
368
374
379
371
377
357
374
352
389
361
390
355
408
381
404
365
379
385
399
383
378
381
MAD
397
N=4
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
Pronstico
Error de
Pronstico
Error
Absoluto
MAD
PROMEDIO DE 3 DATOS
369
380
370
376
367
366
361
376
369
373
379
384
389
389
392
367
392
388
381
391
384
379
N=5
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
Pronstico
Error de
Pronstico
Error
Absoluto
PROMEDIO DE 4 DATOS
375
372
374
368
MAD
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
373
357
379
363
377
367
397
373
393
382
388
380
393
375
387
393
382
edio Mvil
dos
propiado
semanas
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
Pronstico
Error de
Pronstico
Error
Absoluto
MAD
5.00
25.33
-37.00
18.67
-39.00
38.33
-52.33
98.33
-79.00
49.33
-46.00
115.33
-78.00
30.67
-50.00
6.67
50.67
9.67
-74.00
31.67
23.67
-7.67
397
N=4
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
Pronstico
369
380
370
376
367
366
361
376
369
373
379
384
389
389
392
367
392
388
381
391
384
379
Error de
Pronstico
Error
Absoluto
MAD
Error
Absoluto
MAD
29.75
-38.00
20.25
-38.00
27.75
-44.25
88.75
-66.25
40.75
-29.00
91.50
-53.50
23.50
-35.00
-19.50
63.00
3.00
-62.75
34.50
10.75
-11.25
N=5
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
Pronstico
375
372
374
368
Error de
Pronstico
-33.20
17.60
-35.80
26.60
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
373
357
379
363
377
367
397
373
393
382
388
380
393
375
387
393
382
-50.80
92.60
-69.00
47.00
-33.40
102.80
-66.80
39.20
-39.20
-10.00
42.40
15.40
-67.60
39.80
14.60
-20.40
edio Mvil
dos
propiado
semanas
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
Pronstico
Error de
Pronstico
Error
Absoluto
MAD
5.00
25.33
-37.00
18.67
-39.00
38.33
-52.33
98.33
-79.00
49.33
-46.00
115.33
-78.00
30.67
-50.00
6.67
50.67
9.67
-74.00
31.67
23.67
-7.67
5.00
25.33
37.00
18.67
39.00
38.33
52.33
98.33
79.00
49.33
46.00
115.33
78.00
30.67
50.00
6.67
50.67
9.67
74.00
31.67
23.67
7.67
397
N=4
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
Pronstico
369
380
370
376
367
366
361
376
369
373
379
384
389
389
392
367
392
388
381
391
384
379
Error de
Pronstico
29.75
-38.00
20.25
-38.00
27.75
-44.25
88.75
-66.25
40.75
-29.00
91.50
-53.50
23.50
-35.00
-19.50
63.00
3.00
-62.75
34.50
10.75
-11.25
Error
Absoluto
MAD
29.75
38.00
20.25
38.00
27.75
44.25
88.75
66.25
40.75
29.00
91.50
53.50
23.50
35.00
19.50
63.00
3.00
62.75
34.50
10.75
11.25
N=5
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
Pronstico
375
372
374
368
Error de
Pronstico
-33.20
17.60
-35.80
26.60
Error
Absoluto
33.20
17.60
35.80
26.60
MAD
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
373
357
379
363
377
367
397
373
393
382
388
380
393
375
387
393
382
-50.80
92.60
-69.00
47.00
-33.40
102.80
-66.80
39.20
-39.20
-10.00
42.40
15.40
-67.60
39.80
14.60
-20.40
50.80
92.60
69.00
47.00
33.40
102.80
66.80
39.20
39.20
10.00
42.40
15.40
67.60
39.80
14.60
20.40
edio Mvil
dos
propiado
semanas
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
Pronstico
Error de
Pronstico
Error
Absoluto
MAD
5.00
25.33
-37.00
18.67
-39.00
38.33
-52.33
98.33
-79.00
49.33
-46.00
115.33
-78.00
30.67
-50.00
6.67
50.67
9.67
-74.00
31.67
23.67
-7.67
5.00
25.33
37.00
18.67
39.00
38.33
52.33
98.33
79.00
49.33
46.00
115.33
78.00
30.67
50.00
6.67
50.67
9.67
74.00
31.67
23.67
7.67
5.00
15.17
22.44
21.50
25.00
27.22
30.81
39.25
43.67
44.23
44.39
50.31
52.44
50.88
50.82
48.06
48.22
46.07
47.54
46.75
45.65
43.92
397
N=4
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
Pronstico
369
380
370
376
367
366
361
376
369
373
379
384
389
389
392
367
392
388
381
391
384
379
Error de
Pronstico
29.75
-38.00
20.25
-38.00
27.75
-44.25
88.75
-66.25
40.75
-29.00
91.50
-53.50
23.50
-35.00
-19.50
63.00
3.00
-62.75
34.50
10.75
-11.25
Error
Absoluto
29.75
38.00
20.25
38.00
27.75
44.25
88.75
66.25
40.75
29.00
91.50
53.50
23.50
35.00
19.50
63.00
3.00
62.75
34.50
10.75
11.25
MAD
29.75
33.88
29.33
31.50
30.75
33.00
40.96
44.13
43.75
42.28
46.75
47.31
45.48
44.73
43.05
44.30
41.87
43.03
42.58
40.99
39.57
N=5
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
Pronstico
375
372
374
368
Error de
Pronstico
-33.20
17.60
-35.80
26.60
Error
Absoluto
33.20
17.60
35.80
26.60
MAD
33.20
25.40
28.87
28.30
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
373
357
379
363
377
367
397
373
393
382
388
380
393
375
387
393
382
-50.80
92.60
-69.00
47.00
-33.40
102.80
-66.80
39.20
-39.20
-10.00
42.40
15.40
-67.60
39.80
14.60
-20.40
50.80
92.60
69.00
47.00
33.40
102.80
66.80
39.20
39.20
10.00
42.40
15.40
67.60
39.80
14.60
20.40
32.80
42.77
46.51
46.58
45.11
50.88
52.33
51.23
50.31
47.43
47.09
45.11
46.44
46.07
44.41
43.21
edio Mvil
dos
propiado
semanas
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
Pronstico
Error de
Pronstico
Error
Absoluto
MAD
Es la acumulacin de los Errores
368
374
379
371
377
357
374
352
389
361
390
355
408
381
404
365
379
385
399
383
378
381
5.00
25.33
-37.00
18.67
-39.00
38.33
-52.33
98.33
-79.00
49.33
-46.00
115.33
-78.00
30.67
-50.00
6.67
50.67
9.67
-74.00
31.67
23.67
-7.67
5.00
25.33
37.00
18.67
39.00
38.33
52.33
98.33
79.00
49.33
46.00
115.33
78.00
30.67
50.00
6.67
50.67
9.67
74.00
31.67
23.67
7.67
5.00
15.17
22.44
21.50
25.00
27.22
30.81
39.25
43.67
44.23
44.39
50.31
52.44
50.88
50.82
48.06
48.22
46.07
47.54
46.75
45.65
43.92
397
N=4
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
Pronstico
369
380
370
376
367
366
361
376
369
373
379
384
389
389
392
367
392
388
381
391
384
379
Error de
Pronstico
29.75
-38.00
20.25
-38.00
27.75
-44.25
88.75
-66.25
40.75
-29.00
91.50
-53.50
23.50
-35.00
-19.50
63.00
3.00
-62.75
34.50
10.75
-11.25
Error
Absoluto
29.75
38.00
20.25
38.00
27.75
44.25
88.75
66.25
40.75
29.00
91.50
53.50
23.50
35.00
19.50
63.00
3.00
62.75
34.50
10.75
11.25
MAD
29.75
33.88
29.33
31.50
30.75
33.00
40.96
44.13
43.75
42.28
46.75
47.31
45.48
44.73
43.05
44.30
41.87
43.03
42.58
40.99
39.57
N=5
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
Pronstico
375
372
374
368
Error de
Pronstico
-33.20
17.60
-35.80
26.60
Error
Absoluto
33.20
17.60
35.80
26.60
MAD
33.20
25.40
28.87
28.30
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
373
357
379
363
377
367
397
373
393
382
388
380
393
375
387
393
382
-50.80
92.60
-69.00
47.00
-33.40
102.80
-66.80
39.20
-39.20
-10.00
42.40
15.40
-67.60
39.80
14.60
-20.40
50.80
92.60
69.00
47.00
33.40
102.80
66.80
39.20
39.20
10.00
42.40
15.40
67.60
39.80
14.60
20.40
32.80
42.77
46.51
46.58
45.11
50.88
52.33
51.23
50.31
47.43
47.09
45.11
46.44
46.07
44.41
43.21
edio Mvil
dos
propiado
semanas
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
5.00
30.33
-6.67
12.00
-27.00
11.33
-41.00
57.33
-21.67
27.67
-18.33
97.00
19.00
49.67
-0.33
6.33
57.00
66.67
-7.33
24.33
48.00
40.33
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
29.75
-8.25
12.00
-26.00
1.75
-42.50
46.25
-20.00
20.75
-8.25
83.25
29.75
53.25
18.25
-1.25
61.75
64.75
2.00
36.50
47.25
36.00
Error
Acumulado
-33.20
-15.60
-51.40
-24.80
Seal de
Restreo
-75.60
17.00
-52.00
-5.00
-38.40
64.40
-2.40
36.80
-2.40
-12.40
30.00
45.40
-22.20
17.60
32.20
11.80
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
Pronstico
368
374
379
371
377
357
374
352
389
361
390
355
408
381
404
365
379
385
399
383
378
381
Error de
Pronstico
5.00
25.33
-37.00
18.67
-39.00
38.33
-52.33
98.33
-79.00
49.33
-46.00
115.33
-78.00
30.67
-50.00
6.67
50.67
9.67
-74.00
31.67
23.67
-7.67
Error
Absoluto
5.00
25.33
37.00
18.67
39.00
38.33
52.33
98.33
79.00
49.33
46.00
115.33
78.00
30.67
50.00
6.67
50.67
9.67
74.00
31.67
23.67
7.67
MAD
5.00
15.17
22.44
21.50
25.00
27.22
30.81
39.25
43.67
44.23
44.39
50.31
52.44
50.88
50.82
48.06
48.22
46.07
47.54
46.75
45.65
43.92
397
N=4
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
Pronstico
369
380
370
376
367
366
361
376
369
373
379
384
389
389
392
367
392
388
381
391
384
379
Error de
Pronstico
29.75
-38.00
20.25
-38.00
27.75
-44.25
88.75
-66.25
40.75
-29.00
91.50
-53.50
23.50
-35.00
-19.50
63.00
3.00
-62.75
34.50
10.75
-11.25
Error
Absoluto
29.75
38.00
20.25
38.00
27.75
44.25
88.75
66.25
40.75
29.00
91.50
53.50
23.50
35.00
19.50
63.00
3.00
62.75
34.50
10.75
11.25
MAD
29.75
33.88
29.33
31.50
30.75
33.00
40.96
44.13
43.75
42.28
46.75
47.31
45.48
44.73
43.05
44.30
41.87
43.03
42.58
40.99
39.57
N=5
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Demanda
Real
356
383
365
373
399
342
390
338
395
Pronstico
375
372
374
368
Error de
Pronstico
-33.20
17.60
-35.80
26.60
Error
Absoluto
33.20
17.60
35.80
26.60
MAD
33.20
25.40
28.87
28.30
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
322
450
310
410
344
470
330
412
354
372
430
395
325
415
402
373
373
357
379
363
377
367
397
373
393
382
388
380
393
375
387
393
382
-50.80
92.60
-69.00
47.00
-33.40
102.80
-66.80
39.20
-39.20
-10.00
42.40
15.40
-67.60
39.80
14.60
-20.40
50.80
92.60
69.00
47.00
33.40
102.80
66.80
39.20
39.20
10.00
42.40
15.40
67.60
39.80
14.60
20.40
32.80
42.77
46.51
46.58
45.11
50.88
52.33
51.23
50.31
47.43
47.09
45.11
46.44
46.07
44.41
43.21
edio Mvil
dos
propiado
numero de la MAD
DEBE ESTAR ENTRE +-3.75MAD
semanas
NOTA
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
H/G
5.00
30.33
-6.67
12.00
-27.00
11.33
-41.00
57.33
-21.67
27.67
-18.33
97.00
19.00
49.67
-0.33
6.33
57.00
66.67
-7.33
24.33
48.00
40.33
1.00
2.00
-0.30
0.56
-1.08
0.42
-1.33
1.46
-0.50
0.63
-0.41
1.93
0.36
0.98
-0.01
0.13
1.18
1.45
-0.15
0.52
1.05
0.92
SEAL DE RASTREO
3.25
2.25
1.25
N DE MAD
0.25
-0.75
-1.75
-2.75
-3.75
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
0.49
Error
Acumulado
29.75
-8.25
12.00
-26.00
1.75
-42.50
46.25
-20.00
20.75
-8.25
83.25
29.75
53.25
18.25
-1.25
61.75
64.75
2.00
36.50
47.25
36.00
Seal de
Restreo
1.00
-0.24
0.41
-0.83
0.06
-1.29
1.13
-0.45
0.47
-0.20
1.78
0.63
1.17
0.41
-0.03
1.39
1.55
0.05
0.86
1.15
0.91
3.25
2.25
1.25
0.25
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
-0.75
-1.75
-2.75
-3.75
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
3.25
2.25
-33.20
-15.60
-51.40
-24.80
-1.00
-0.61
-1.78
-0.88
1.25
0.25
1
-0.75
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
1.25
-75.60
17.00
-52.00
-5.00
-38.40
64.40
-2.40
36.80
-2.40
-12.40
30.00
45.40
-22.20
17.60
32.20
11.80
-2.30
0.40
-1.12
-0.11
-0.85
1.27
-0.05
0.72
-0.05
-0.26
0.64
1.01
-0.48
0.38
0.73
0.27
-0.20
0.25
1
-0.75
-1.75
-2.75
-3.75
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
DE RASTREO
Column I
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
RESPUESTA
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Column I
Column I
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Column I
1. El pronosticar las ventas para el siguiente mes aplicar el promedio mvil ponderad
los ltimos 3 meses con factores 2, 3 y 4 respectivamente.
2. Valide su modelo y seleccionar el criterio mas apropiado
3. Haga una representacin grfica de su modelo.
4. Haga una interpretacin de los resultados obtenidos
Demanda
Error de
Pronstico
Real
Pronstico
1,004
1,150
1,030
1,057
1,064
-7.22
1,139
1,069
70.33
997
1,087
-90.44
1,092
1,058
34.33
1,033
1,071
-37.78
1,063
1,045
18.33
1,003
1,059
-56.44
1,014
1,030
-15.67
1,074
1,021
52.78
1,040
1,038
1.78
959
1,046
-86.56
1,142
1,012
130.44
958
1,058
-100.33
1,035
1,020
15.44
1,150
1,033
116.89
1,129
1,069
60.00
997
1,115
-118.11
1,075
FACTORES DE PONDERACION
ANT-ANTERI
2
ANTERIOR
3
ULTIMO
4
SUMA
9.00
Error
Absoluto
7.22
70.33
90.44
34.33
37.78
18.33
56.44
15.67
52.78
1.78
86.56
130.44
100.33
15.44
116.89
60.00
118.11
Seal de Rastr eo
omedio Ponderado
dos
ltimos meses
MAD
Error
Acumulado
7.22
38.78
56.00
50.58
48.02
43.07
44.98
41.32
42.59
38.51
42.88
50.18
54.03
51.28
55.65
55.92
59.58
-7.22
63.11
-27.33
7.00
-30.78
-12.44
-68.89
-84.56
-31.78
-30.00
-116.56
13.89
-86.44
-71.00
45.89
105.89
-12.22
Seal de Rastr eo
Seal de
Restreo
-1.00
1.63
-0.49
0.14
-0.64
-0.29
-1.53
-2.05
-0.75
-0.78
-2.72
0.28
-1.60
-1.38
0.82
1.89
-0.21
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Column I
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0.10
Demanda
Real
1155
1128
1095
1125
1140
1170
1230
1170
1215
1140
1146
1185
ALFA
Pronstico
1075
1083
1088
1088
1092
1097
1104
1117
1122
1131
1132
1134
1139
Error de
Pronstico
80
45
8
37
48
73
126
53
93
9
14
51
Error
Absoluto
80
45
8
37
48
73
126
53
93
9
14
51
0.50
Mes
Demanda
Real
Pronstico
Error de
Pronstico
Error
Absoluto
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1155
1128
1095
1125
1140
1170
1230
1170
1215
1140
1146
1075
1115
1122
1108
1117
1128
1149
1190
1180
1197
1169
80
13
-27
17
23
42
81
-20
35
-57
-23
80
13
27
17
23
42
81
20
35
57
23
12
13
1185
ALFA
1157
1171
28
28
Error de
Pronstico
Error
Absoluto
80
-11
-35
23
20
34
67
-47
36
-68
-8
37
80
11
35
23
20
34
67
47
36
68
8
37
0.80
Mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Demanda
Real
1155
1128
1095
1125
1140
1170
1230
1170
1215
1140
1146
1185
Pronstico
1075
1139
1130
1102
1120
1136
1163
1217
1179
1208
1154
1148
1178
avizado Exponencial
piado
os
ltimos meses
Error
Acumulado
80
125
133
169
217
291
417
470
563
572
585
637
Seal de
Restreo
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
6.50
MAD
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
80
47
40
34
32
34
40
38
37
39
38
80
93
67
83
107
148
229
210
245
187
165
1
2
2
2
3
4
6
6
7
5
4
MAD
80
63
44
42
43
48
60
59
63
57
53
53
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
10
11
10
11
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
3
2
37
192
5
3.91
0
1
MAD
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
80
46
42
37
34
34
38
40
39
42
39
39
80
69
34
57
76
110
177
130
166
98
91
128
1
2
1
2
2
3
5
3
4
2
2
3
2.54
10
11
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
10
11
12
Column I
10
11
12
Column I
10
11
12
Column I
10
11
12
Column I
10
11
12
Mes (x)
1
1,000
1,300
1,800
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,200
2,600
2,900
10
3,200
Pronostico
Solucin
1. GENERANDO EL PRONSTICO:
Mes (x)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Ventas
Mensual
1,000
1,300
1,800
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,200
2,600
2,900
3,200
Pronostico
1,129
1,345
1,561
1,776
1,992
2,208
2,424
2,639
2,855
3,071
3,287
3,502
3,718
MTODO 01:
MTODO 02:
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Y = A + BX
Y = 913.333 + 215.75X
2. VALIDANDO EL PRONSTICO
R = Coeficiente de correlacin
R2 = Coeficiente de determinaci
173.03
3,287
2
unid
unid
al 95% de confianza
rangos
limite superior
limite inferior
3,625.8
2,947.5
173.03
3,502
2
unid
unid
al 95% de confianza
rangos
limite superior
limite inferior
3,841.6
3,163.3
173.03
3,718
2
unid
unid
al 95% de confianza
rangos
limite superior
limite inferior
4,057.3
3,379.0
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
1
VENTAS ($)
PRONOSTICO
10
11
12
13
resin Lneal
I.C.
99%
95%
90%
85%
80%
Multiplicador Z/2
2.576
1.96
1.645
1.439
1.282
1 r 1
A
B
r
Coeficiente e correlacin
913.3333333
215.7575758
0.970203745
de la regresin
0.9702037446
0.941295306
0.9339572193
173.03003768
10
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
1 3840484.848 3840484.84848485 128.2753036 3.3267E-006
8 239515.1515 29939.3939393939
9
4080000
Coeficientes
Error tpico
913.333333333 118.2020185
215.757575758 19.04998018
Estadstico t
Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%
7.7268844061 5.6024E-005 640.7589902 1185.907677 640.7589902
11.325868781 3.3267E-006 171.8282427 259.6869088 171.8282427
11
12
13
Superior 95.0%
1185.907677
259.6869088
1.- Pronostique el 2010 Utilizando el mtodo de Estacional, considerando un nivel de confianza de 95%.
2.- Desarrolle una ecuacin de regresin lineal simple.
3.- Calcular los indices estacionales.
4.- Pronostique estacionalmente todos los meses del 2010.
5.- Grafique la Demanda, la Demanda desestacinalizada, El Pronostico Desestacionalizado y el Pronostico Estacionalizad
Ao
Enero
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Febrero
Marzo
Abril
Mayo
Junio
Julio
742
741
896
951
1030
697
700
793
861
1032
776
774
885
938
1126
898
932
1055
1109
1285
1030
1099
1204
1274
1468
1165
1290
1303
1486
1611
1216
1319
1436
1555
1608
872
816.6
899.8
1055.8
1215
1371
1426.8
2010
Pomedio Mensual
Promedio Total
1169.35
Ind. Estacional
Ano
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Demanda
Indice
desestac.
742
697
776
898
1030
1165
1216
1216
1208
1131
971
783
741
700
774
932
1099
1290
1319
0.74571343
0.69833668
0.76948732
0.90289477
1.03903878
1.17244623
1.22016505
1.2252961
1.22358575
1.18014281
0.97986061
0.84303245
0.74571343
0.69833668
0.76948732
0.90289477
1.03903878
1.17244623
1.22016505
A/B
Y
Dem.
Pronostico
Desestacio Desestacio
nalizada
nalizado
995.020298
998.085905
1008.46366
994.578803
991.300823
993.648979
996.586487
992.413177
987.262231
958.358587
990.957279
928.789866
993.6793
1002.38183
1005.86453
1032.23546
1057.70835
1100.26368
1081.0013
952.054101
959.420064
966.786026
974.151989
981.517952
988.883915
996.249877
1003.61584
1010.9818
1018.34777
1025.71373
1033.07969
1040.44565
1047.81162
1055.17758
1062.54354
1069.9095
1077.27547
1084.64143
Luego: Hallamos
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regres
Coeficiente de
Coeficiente d
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observacione
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libe
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Coeficiente
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
20
1349
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
1296
1066
901
896
793
885
1055
1204
1303
1436
1436
1473
1453
1170
1023
951
861
938
1109
1274
1486
1555
1555
1604
1600
1403
1209
1030
1032
1126
1285
1468
1611
1608
1608
1528
1420
1119
1013
1.18014281
0.97986061
0.84303245
0.74571343
0.69833668
0.76948732
0.90289477
1.03903878
1.17244623
1.22016505
1.2252961
1.22358575
1.18014281
0.97986061
0.84303245
0.74571343
0.69833668
0.76948732
0.90289477
1.03903878
1.17244623
1.22016505
1.2252961
1.22358575
1.18014281
0.97986061
0.84303245
0.74571343
0.69833668
0.76948732
0.90289477
1.03903878
1.17244623
1.22016505
1.2252961
1.22358575
1.18014281
0.97986061
0.84303245
0.74571343
0.69833668
0.76948732
0.90289477
1.03903878
1.17244623
1.22016505
1.2252961
1.22358575
1.18014281
0.97986061
1098.17217
1087.90984
1068.76075
1201.53394
1135.55541
1150.11641
1168.46396
1158.76329
1111.3516
1176.88996
1171.96161
1203.8388
1231.20692
1194.04739
1213.47642
1275.28882
1232.92965
1218.99344
1228.27159
1226.13325
1267.43552
1274.41775
1269.081
1310.90117
1355.76812
1431.83632
1434.10849
1381.22764
1477.79721
1463.31196
1423.20018
1412.84428
1374.05022
1317.8545
1312.33585
1248.78865
1203.2442
1141.99917
1201.61448
1106.73932
1114.10528
1121.47124
1128.83721
1136.20317
1143.56913
1150.93509
1158.30106
1165.66702
1173.03298
1180.39894
1187.76491
1195.13087
1202.49683
1209.86279
1217.22876
1224.59472
1231.96068
1239.32665
1246.69261
1254.05857
1261.42453
1268.7905
1276.15646
1283.52242
1290.88838
1298.25435
1305.62031
1312.98627
1320.35223
1327.7182
1335.08416
1342.45012
1349.81609
1357.18205
1364.54801
1371.91397
1379.27994
1386.6459
1394.01186
1401.37782
1408.74379
1416.10975
1423.47571
1430.84167
1438.20764
1445.5736
1452.93956
1460.30553
1467.67149
Entonces tenemos:
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1000
800
600
72
0.84303245
1475.03745
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
Indice
desestac.
Pronostico
Desestacion
alizado
0.74571343
0.69833668
0.76948732
0.90289477
1.03903878
1.17244623
1.22016505
1.2252961
1.22358575
1.18014281
0.97986061
0.84303245
1394.01186
1401.37782
1408.74379
1416.10975
1423.47571
1430.84167
1438.20764
1445.5736
1452.93956
1460.30553
1467.67149
1475.03745
400
Pronosti
co
Estacion
alizado
1039.53
978.634
1084.01
1278.6
1479.05
1677.58
1754.85
1771.26
1777.8
1723.37
1438.11
1243.5
200
0
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1
eal
onostico Estacionalizado
Agosto
1216
1349
1436
1555
1608
Septiembre Octubre
Noviembre Diciembre
1208
1131
971
783
1341
1296
1066
901
1473
1453
1170
1023
1604
1600
1403
1209
1528
1420
1119
1013
1432.8
1430.8
1380
1145.8
985.8
dsticas de la regresin
0.87517603
0.76593308
0.76189744
71.7242564
60
NLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados deSuma
libertad
de
Promedio
cuadrados
de los cuadrados
F Valor crtico de F
1 976362.023 976362.023 189.792379 6.094E-020
58
298373.4 5144.36896
59 1274735.42
CoeficientesError tpicoEstadsticoProbabilidad
t
Inferior 95%
Superior 95%
Inferior 95.0%
Superior 95.0%
944.688138 18.7530584 50.3751504 1.410E-049 907.149814 982.226463 907.149814 982.226463
7.36596267 0.53467531 13.7765155 6.094E-020 6.29569377 8.43623158 6.29569377 8.43623158
ntonces tenemos:
Y = 944.68814 + 7.3659627*X
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1
10
11
12
erior 95.0%
PRCTICA: 02 "PRONOSTICOS"
Demanda
Real
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1155
1128
1095
1125
1140
1170
1195
1170
1185
1,140
1,146
1,185
1,050
1,150
1,105
1,110
Pronstico
Error de
Pronstico
Error
Absoluto
MAD
17
18
19
20
1,138
1,180
1,190
s latinoamericanos (toneladas). El
do "Promedio Mvil" y "Promedio
guiente perodo. Se pide:.
do
medio mvil
ivamente.
meses
Error
Acumulado
Seal de
Restreo
1.- Pronostique los aos 10, 11 y 12, utilizando Regresin Lneal Simple.
2.- Valide el modelo, es decir determine y explique su significado, para un NC = 0.95:
Coeficiente de correlacion ( R )
Coeficiente de determinacion (r2)
3.-Determine RANGOS de los pronsticos para los periodos 11, 12 y 13.
4.- Grafique la Venta y el Pronstico obtenido
AO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
NACIMIENTOS
565
590
583
597
615
611
610
623
633
n NC = 0.95: