El Nino Rainfall Monitoring Report on October 6, 2015

Situation Overview
Most parts of the country have reported average rainfall over the last two days and into this
morning. The areas that have received rainfall so far include; Kisumu, Kakamega, Homabay,
Busia, Marsabit, Mombasa, Meru, Nyeri, Kericho, and Kisii.
The rains resulted in no major incidents in most parts of the country except for Meru, Garissa
and Homabay as highlighted below:
Meru County
In Meru County, sporadic rainfall has continued to be witnessed over the last few days. The
rains have resulted in the collapse of quarries, the most recent incident being on 1 st October
2015, when a quarry collapsed at Kithurine in Meru south that lead to 4 deaths and leaving 1
person injured. The County Government supported by KRCS and local community leaders are
leading a campaign to stop all mining activities in landslide prone areas in view of the increased
risk due to the rainfall being witnessed in the areas.
Garissa County
Flash flooding was witnessed in Bonane and Gurafa, Modagashe Sub-County, Garissa County
on 5th October 2015. The flooding resulted from increased surface run off from parts of Meru
County where heavy rainfall had been witnessed on Sunday (4th October 2015) evening. An
unconfirmed number of households were affected by the flash flooding but no fatalities or
injuries were reported. KRCS Garissa will carry out an assessment in the affected areas to
determine the extent of damage and guide on further action by the Society and other partners.
Homabay County
In Homabay county, heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds were witnessed on Sunday 4th
October 2015. The storms blew off a roof in Misani Primary School in Ndhiwa Sub-County. No
injuries were reported as there were no students in the school at the time.
Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) Response
KRCS is working with both National and County Governments in planning for enhanced rainfall
in various parts of the country. To achieve this, KRCS has supported the County Governments
of Busia, Mombasa, Nakuru, Kisumu, Homabay and Migori Counties in developing contingency
plans.
In Busia and Mombasa Counties, mapping of flood prone areas has been done and evacuation
sites identified in anticipation of enhanced rainfall.

Currently, there is heightened alert and surveillance especially in the Coastal Region where
storms are expected to occur as was forecast by the Kenya Meteorological Department
THE WEEK AHEAD
Expected hazard advisories from 5th to 11th October 2015 which might cause minor incidences.

5th October 2015

6th October 2015

Expected rainy conditions along parts of

Kenya coastal with rainfall less than 1mm
thus no hazard is associated with forecast.
with relative humidity above 60%

Expected rainy conditions along parts of

Kenya coastal with rainfall less than 1mm
thus no hazard is associated with forecast.
with relative humidity above 70%

7th October 2015

8th October 2015

Expected rainy conditions along parts of

Kenya coastal with rainfall increasing in most
parts with over 10mm.this trend shows on set
of rainy condition. with relative humidity
above 60%

Storm is expected to hit parts of Kenya

coastal with rainfall increasing in 24 hours
amounting to over 30mm in north coast and
other parts to receive over 50mm. residents
advised to stay away from waterways. Parts
of Mt.kenya regions, Nairobi and south
eastern lowlands(mtito andei ,kibwezi) will
receive atleast 10mm with relative humidity
above 80%

9th October 2015

10th October 2015

Storm is expected to hit parts of Kenya

coastal with rainfall increasing in 24 hours
amounting to over 50mm in north coast and
other parts to receive over30mm. residents
advised to stay away from waterways. Parts
of Mt.kenya regions, Nairobi, nyanza and
western Kenya will receive atleast 10mm with
relative humidity above 80%

Decreased rainfall status will be experienced

thus most parts of Kenya coast and south
eastern lowlands receiving slightly above
10mm with Relative Humidity of over 60%.
No major threat on this forecast

N.B: This forecast should be used in

conjunction with the daily (24-hour)
hazard/disaster advisories
Issued by this Department.
KEY OF SCIENTIFIC WORDS USED
Most Places: Between 66% and 100%
Several Places: Between 33% and
66%

th

11 October 2015

Few Places: Between 0 and 33%

Decreased rainfall status will be experienced

thus most parts of Kenya coast receiving
slightly above 10mm with Relative Humidity
of over 70%. No major threat on this forecast

rainfall chart key in (mm)

Humidity chart key in

(%)

1. Detailed forecast for the Coastal strip for the next 7 days (6th to 12th October 2015
Current models are indicating likelihood of enhanced rainfall along the coastal strip from
the Wednesday 7th to Friday, 9th October 2015 with various parts being pounded by over
20mm of rainfall in day. The detailed forecast for the next 7 days (6th to 12th October 2015)
is provided in the Table below.
DATE
Tuesday,
6th Oct. 2015
Wednesday,
7th Oct. 2015
Thursday,
8th Oct. 2015

Friday,
9th Oct. 2015

FORECAST
Generally dry conditions over most parts of the coast.
A pick up in rainfall activities in the morning with some locations
receiving 10mm of rainfall. Heavy rainfall will mainly be offshore.
Enhancement of rainfall from heavy storms leading to very heavy rainfall
( 50mm in 24 hours) being observed over some locations in Kwale,
Mombasa, Kilifi, and extreme eastern parts of Tana River counties. The
rainfall amounts in the North Coast (Lamu County) will be relatively lower
but still there are areas expected to receiver heavy rainfall ( 20mm)
Heavy rainfall to persist but with slightly reduced intensities. The
heaviest events ( 50mm) are expected in South Coast (Kwale and parts
of Mombasa).
General reduction in the heavy rainfall events but persistence in wet
conditions with most areas recording rainfall in the range 10 20 mm.
Generally light morning showers over most locations

Saturday,
10th Oct. 2015
Sunday,
11th Oct. 2015
Monday,
12 A pick up in rainfall over the North Coast where some locations are
Oct. 2015
expected to record heavy rainfall ( 20mm). Light to moderate rainfall
over the other coastal areas.
SOURCE: KENYA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES