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Quantitative Equity Report | Release Date: 17 September 2015 | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: IDR

Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk Class B PGAS

Last Close

Quantitative Fair Value Estimate

Market Cap (Bil)

Sector

Industry

2,790.00

4,005.48

65,325.9

f Utilities

Utilities - Regulated Gas

PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk is engaged in the

transportation and distribution of natural gas, connecting
Indonesia's natural gas supplies with customers across the
country.

Country of Domicile
IDN Indonesia

Price Versus Quantitative Fair Value

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Sales/Share
Forecast Range
Forcasted Price
Dividend
Split

Quantitative Fair Value Estimate

7,450

Total Return
Quantitative Scores

5,960

Scores

Momentum:

Standard Deviation: 31.33

All Rel Sector Rel Country

Quantitative Moat
None
Valuation
Undervalued
Quantitative Uncertainty Very High
Financial Health
Moderate

65
98
71
50

46
98
58
47

4,470

77
93
73
53

2,980

2,150.00

52-Wk

6,225.00

2,025.00

5-Yr

6,450.00

1,490
PGAS
IDN

Undervalued

Fairly Valued

Overvalued

Valuation

Sector
Median

Country
Median

14.4

11.6
16.0
3.79
6.0
4.5

0.90
15.4
14.8
6.2
12.6
4.01
1.3
1.2

0.84
12.3
12.8
6.4
9.7
2.45
1.1
1.1

Current 5-Yr Avg

Sector
Median

Country
Median

10.1
3.2
1.1

13.3
5.1
931.9

Current 5-Yr Avg

Price/Quant Fair Value

Price/Earnings
Forward P/E
Price/Cash Flow
Price/Free Cash Flow
Dividend Yield %
Price/Book
Price/Sales

0.67
7.9

6.9

5.37
1.6
1.4

Profitability

Return on Equity %
Return on Assets %
Revenue/Employee (Mil)

22.1
10.2
1.4

39.7
19.6
1.5

Score
100

Quantitative Moat

80
60
40
20
0
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Financial Health
Current 5-Yr Avg

Distance to Default
Solvency Score
Assets/Equity
Long-Term Debt/Equity

2015

Sector
Median

Country
Median

0.6
633.8
2.7
0.8

0.5
561.3
2.1
0.3

0.6

2.2
0.7

2.0
0.5

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

13.6
5.2
-10.2
-11.5
11.2
-50.7

15.2
3.0
2.0
0.3
16.9
-6.7

12.3
3.8
1.4
82.5
17.3
-2.2

17.4

Growth Per Share

Revenue %
Operating Income %
Earnings %
Dividends %
Book Value %
Stock Total Return %

-24.7
-11.2

44.8
26.9

4.5
-11.6

38.8
42.0

-51.1
-49.9

4.89
12.7
4.0

3.01
15.1
4.8

4.53
9.8
3.0

3.51
14.5
3.5

5.37
7.9
1.4

Total Return %
+/ Market (Morningstar World
Index)
Dividend Yield %
Price/Earnings
Price/Revenue
Undervalued
Fairly Valued
Overvalued

Monthly Volume (Thousand Shares)

Liquidity: High

146,022

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

TTM

2,168
13.4

2,160
-0.4

2,576
19.3

3,002
16.5

3,409
13.6

3,199
-6.2

Financials (Fiscal Year in Mil)

Revenue
% Change

991
21.7
709

853
-14.0
655

1,018
19.5
891

934
-8.3
861

982
5.2
723

801
-18.4
580

Operating Income
% Change
Net Income

-125
922
42.5

-76
842
39.0

-159
1,007
39.1

-317
512
17.0

-510
386
11.3

-703
-44
-1.4

Operating Cash Flow

Capital Spending
Free Cash Flow
% Sales

0.03
1.4
315.30

0.03
-4.1
327.41

0.04
47.9
341.29

0.04
0.0
311.61

0.03
-25.0
128.79

0.02
-20.2
-25.65

0.01
517.80
24,242

0.02
606.09
24,240

0.01
770.68
24,238

0.02
1,162.46
24,240

0.02
1,343.87
24,240

0.01
1,669.77
24,240

49.5
20.9
31.6
0.66
2.3

40.1
18.9
30.3
0.62
2.0

45.2
24.3
34.6
0.70
1.8

36.3
20.8
28.7
0.73
1.7

27.2
13.7
21.2
0.64
2.2

22.1
10.2
18.1
0.56
2.0

Profitability
Return on Equity %
Return on Assets %
Net Margin %
Asset Turnover
Financial Leverage

63.5
45.7
1,178

60.2
39.5
995

57.2
39.5
840

47.2
31.1
612

43.0
28.8
1,805

40.5
25.1
2,056

Gross Margin %
Operating Margin %
Long-Term Debt

1,521
1.2

1,749
1.2

2,197
1.5

2,545
1.7

2,767
1.2

2,837
1.0

Total Equity
Fixed Asset Turns

Quarterly Revenue & EPS

Revenue (Mil)
Mar
2015
696.4
2014
841.6
2013
731.1
2012
582.1
Earnings Per Share
2015
0.00
2014
0.01
2013
0.01
2012
0.01

EPS
% Change
Free Cash Flow/Share
Dividends/Share
Book Value/Share
Shares Outstanding (Mil)

Revenue Growth Year On Year %

Jun
719.5
862.0
760.6
598.8

Sep

809.9
709.3
646.8

Dec

895.0
800.5
748.7

Total

3,408.6
3,001.5
2,576.5

0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01

0.01
0.01
0.01

0.00
0.01
0.01

0.03
0.04
0.04

27.0
9.7

15.1

13.3

6.9

14.2

11.8

-17.3
2013

2014

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contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely. This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Redistribution
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-16.5

2015