JP Morgan - Indonesia Coal Mining 2011

Asia Pacific Equity Research
13 January 2011
Indonesia coal mining

Coal stocks to outperform during rising inflation; we
upgrade Adaro, raise PTs for other stocks on the back
of new coal price assumption
Incorporate revised J.P. Morgan coal price assumption: We
incorporate the revised J.P. Morgan FY11 coal price estimate of
US$120/ton (from US$105/ton) into our model. With this our earnings
estimates increase by an average of 18%, excluding the effect from
adjustments that incorporate lower-than-expected 9M10 results. The
adjustments from the new coal price also result in a strong earnings
growth expectation of 79% Y/Y for FY11.
Coal stocks as inflation hedge: During the high inflation period of
FY05, the JAKMINE index outperformed the JCI by 8.6%. In addition,
our analysis of the Indonesian coal sector over the past few days has
indicated an outperformance. As indicated in our recent report etitled
Indonesia Equity Strategy: What works when inflation is rising? by
Aditya Srinath, published on 06 January 2011, we expect the energy
sector to outperform in the next three to six months due to rising
inflation. We believe coal stocks could outperform in this environment.
Upgrade ADRO from UW to N; others unchanged: The following
positive and negative drivers indicate a balanced view on ADRO.
Positive factors: (1) Rainy weather in Indonesia should support the coal
price; (2) Potential improvement in ADROs operation. Neutral factors:
ADRO earnings estimates are on par with the Streets estimates, and our
fair value estimate implies limited upside. Negative factors: (1)
Receding floods in Australia could lead to softer coal prices; (2) At 16.4x
FY11E P/E, ADRO is one of the highest priced Indonesia coal stocks vs.
the industry average of 15.1x. We upgrade ADRO from UW to N and
raise our Dec-11 price target from Rp2,000 to Rp2,800. We keep our
ratings for the other coal names unchanged, as the upside implied by our
new price targets still support our current ratings, in our view.
Indonesia
Mining
Stevanus Juanda
AC
(62-21) 5291 8574

stevanus.x.juanda@jpmorgan.com
PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia
JAKMINE index performance

175.0
155.0
135.0
115.0
95.0
75.0
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
JAKMINE Rebased
Oct-10
Jan-11
JCI Rebased
Source: Bloomberg
Price Performance
Absolute (%)
Relative (%)
1-M
6.7
12.4
3-M
20.2
21.8
12-M
39.5
4.5
Source: Bloomberg
Positive on the coal sector; INDY, PTBA our top picks: We reiterate
our positive view on the coal sector, with INDY and PTBA being our top
picks due to the following factors. (1) INDY: PTRO spinoff as catalyst
and low valuation at FY11E 11.3x compared to the industrys 15.1x.
PTBA: The start of construction at Transpacific Railway in FY11, which
could cause a re-rating of PTBAs share price.
See page 34 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Investment summary
J.P. Morgans global coal team raised its FY11 thermal coal price estimate from
US$101/ton to US$120/ton.
Table 1: Indo Coal Mining: New and old thermal coal assumptions
US$/ton
Q4-10
105.9
100.0
5.9%
Thermal new (Newcastle)

Thermal old (Newcastle)
Difference (%)
CY10
98.5
95.0
3.7%
Q1-11E
120.0
95.0
26.3%
Q2-11E
125.0
100.0
25.0%
Q3-11E
120.0
105.0
14.3%
Q4-11E
115.0
105.0
9.5%
CY11E
120.0
101.0
18.8%
CY12E
120.0
105.0
14.3%
CY13E
110.0
105.0
4.8%
LT
90.0
90.0
0.0%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
As a result, we lift our FY11 earnings estimates for Indonesian thermal coal
companies by 18.4% on average, excluding the companies with other adjustments.
Table 2: Indo Coal Mining: New and original EPS forecasts
Rp, year-end December
Company Name
Bumi Resources
Tambang Bukit Asam
Indo Tambang Raya
Adaro Energy
Berau Coal Energy
Indika Energy
Average
FY10E
115
861
2,202
69
22
232
New EPS
FY11E
206
1,435
3,561
160
32
440
FY12E
246
1,704
4,619
203
47
421
FY10E
148
852
2,071
70
26
210
Old EPS
FY11E
241
1,470
3,198
124
33
324
FY12E
273
1,779
3,647
144
35
295
FY10E
-22.0%
1.0%
6.3%
-0.8%
-15.3%
10.5%
4.2%
Difference (%)
FY11E
-14.6%
-2.4%
11.4%
29.0%
-0.5%
35.8%
18.4%
FY12E
-10.0%
-4.2%
26.7%
40.9%
33.3%
42.5%
26.4%
The extension of our PT time horizon to Dec-11 and adjustment to our coal price
assumptions resulted in us raising our PTs by 21.7% on average for all of the
companies under our coverage.
Table 3: Indo Coal Mining: Revisions to our price targets
Rp per share, %
PTBA
ADRO
INDY
ITMG
JCI
Price
23,200
2,775
5,200
55,500
3,555
Dec-11 PT
29,000
2,800
6,300
63,000
4,100
Upside
25.0%
0.9%
21.2%
13.5%
15.3%
Old PT
27,000
2,000
5,000
54,200
Adjustment
7.4%
40.0%
26.0%
16.2%
21.7%
However, we are still below the consensus in our earnings forecasts. (Note:
Historically, reported results have been lower than consensus estimates.)
Table 4: Indo Coal Mining: J.P. Morgan forecasts vs. consensus forecasts
Rp
Company Name
BUMI
Tambang Bukit Asam
Indo Tambang Raya
Adaro Energy
Berau Coal Energy
Indika Energy
Average
FY10E
115
861
2,202
69
22
232
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates.

2
JPM EPS
FY11E
206
1,435
3,561
160
32
440
FY12E
246
1,704
4,619
203
47
421
FY10E
144
945
2,367
89
26
237
Consensus EPS
FY11E
261
1,506
4,014
165
33
392
FY12E
315
1,757
4,743
203
35
441
FY10E
-20.0%
-8.9%
-7.0%
-22.0%
-15.4%
-2.1%
-12.6%
Difference (%)
FY11E
-21.2%
-4.7%
-11.3%
-3.1%
-0.5%
12.1%
-4.8%
FY12E
-22.0%
-3.0%
-2.6%
0.0%
33.3%
-4.6%
0.2%
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
The upwards earnings adjustments resulted in a potential 79.4% Y/Y growth in EPS
for FY11E.
Table 5: Indo Coal Mining: FY11E and FY12E EPS growth`
%
Company Name
Bumi Resources
Tambang Bukit Asam
Indo Tambang Raya
Adaro Energy
Berau Coal Energy
Indika Energy
Average
FY11E growth
78.7%
66.7%
61.7%
131.4%
48.2%
89.4%
79.4%
FY12E growth
19.3%
18.7%
29.7%
26.7%
44.9%
-4.3%
22.5%
The performance of Indonesia coal names during an environment of the rising

inflation over the past few days shows that they can still hold their grounds in terms
of relative performance. In FY05, when inflation surged by 17.2%, the JAKMINE
index outperformed the JCI. Also, as indicated in a recent report, entitled Indonesia
Equity Strategy: What works when inflation is rising? by Aditya Srinath, published
on 06 January 2011, we believe the energy sector will outperform over the next three
to six months after the period rising inflation. As a result, we believe coal stocks
could outperform during this period of rising inflation.
Table 6: Indo Coal Mining: Relative performance of Indonesia coal name (6 Jan-11 to 11 Jan-11)
%
06-Jan-11 to
12-Jan-11
-6.1%
-0.4%
-1.6%
-5.4%
-1.8%
-4.3%
-3.3%
-4.9%
Bumi Resources
Tambang Bukit Asam
Indo Tambang Raya
Adaro Energy
Berau Coal Energy
Indika Energy
Average Industry
JCI
06-Jan-11 to
11-Jan-11
-9.9%
-4.7%
-5.9%
-10.8%
-3.6%
-11.5%
-7.8%
-7.5%
06-Jan-11 to
10-Jan-11
-7.6%
-2.8%
-6.3%
-9.9%
-1.8%
-9.6%
-6.3%
-6.9%
06-Jan-11 to
7-Jan-11
-4.6%
-1.7%
-3.6%
-2.7%
-1.8%
-4.8%
-3.2%
-2.8%
6-Jan-11
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Source: Bloomberg
Without the multiple of BYAN of 33x in FY11E, which we deemed to be an outlier,

the average industry FY11E P/E is 15.1x, while with BYAN it is 17.7x FY11E.
Table 7: Indo Coal Mining: Relative valuations
Rp per share, x, %
Ticker
BUMI* - net Tata's
PTBA
ITMG
ADRO
BRAU*
BYAN
INDY - With Kideco
Average wo BYAN
Average
JPM
Rating
-OW
N
N
-NR
OW
Clsg
Price (LC)
3,075
23,100
54,600
2,625
540
17,900
4,975
Mkt Cap
(US$MM)
6,961
5,916
6,855
9,329
2,094
6,630
2,878
FY10E
27.0
26.8
24.8
38.0
24.7
72.6
21.4
27.1
33.6
P/E (x)
FY11E
14.9
16.1
15.3
16.4
16.7
33.0
11.3
15.1
17.7
FY12E
12.5
13.6
11.8
12.9
11.5
31.2
11.8
12.4
15.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
9.6
6.5
5.6
21.1
10.8
8.8
14.9
10.2
7.6
12.8
7.8
6.5
8.6
6.9
5.2
36.0
17.5
18.5
14.8
11.8
10.6
13.6
9.0
7.4
16.8
10.2
9.0
FY10E
0.8
2.4
2.9
2.1
1.4
0.6
1.4
1.8
1.7
Div Yield (%)

FY11E
FY12E
1.1
2.0
4.0
4.7
2.4
3.9
1.1
2.4
1.2
1.8
2.1
2.8
2.3
4.4
2.0
3.2
2.0
3.2
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: Closing price as of 12 Jan 2011. Bloomberg consensus estimates for NR stocks. *Under applicable law and/or JPMorgan Chase & Co policy, the
J.P. Morgan rating for this company has been removed.
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Adaro Energy
Large upwards earnings adjustment: ADROs sensitivity to coal prices is one of
the highest in the industry. The upward adjustment in our coal price assumption from
US$101/ton to US$120/ton in FY11 causes us to raise our FY11E EPS by 29.0%
from Rp124 to Rp160. Adaros share price has outperformed the JCI by 27.8% in the
past three months.
Positive and negative drivers: We believe the following factors will cancel each
other out and cause ADRO share price to perform in line with its peers. Positives: (1)
Rainy weather in Indonesia should provide support to the coal price; (2) potential
improvement in ADROs operations. Neutral: Currently our earnings estimates for
ADRO are on par with the Streets forecasts. Negatives: (1) Receding floods in
Australia softening coal prices ; (2) At 16.4x FY11E P/E, ADRO is one of the most
highly priced coal stocks in Indonesia, compared with the industry P/E of 15.1x.
FY11E profit per ton of US$26: The incorporation of the new coal price of
US$120/ton (from US$101/ton) yields us a fair value estimate of Rp2,800. With the
coal price assumption right now at US$120/ton, we expect that ADROs operating
profit per ton could now reach US$26 in FY11, compared with US$29 in FY09,
based on the FY08 coal price of US$125/ton. (Note: Realization of coal price usually
has a 6-to-12-month lag).
Upgrade to Neutral: With our FY11E profit now on par with the consensus
forecast, and given our fair value estimate of Rp2,800, we upgrade ADRO from UW
to N. We also extend our price target time horizon from June-11 to Dec-11 and raise
our price target from Rp2,000 to Rp2,800.
Adaro Energy (Reuters: ADRO.JK, Bloomberg: ADRO IJ)
Rp in bn, year-end Dec
Revenue
Net Profit
EPS (Rp)
DPS (Rp)
Revenue growth (%)
EPS growth (%)
ROCE
ROE
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Dividend Yield
FY08A
18,093
887.2
27.74
0
56.1%
553.5%
24.6%
11.0%
94.6
6.0
18.3
0.0%
FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E

26,938 27,445 36,879 43,866 46,140 Shares O/S (mn)
4,367.3 2,212.0 5,118.5 6,487.3 6,160.7 Market cap (Rp bn)
136.54
69.16 160.02 202.82 192.61 Market cap ($ mn)
8
55
28
64
81 Price (Rp)
48.9%
1.9% 34.4% 18.9%
5.2% Date Of Price
392.3% -49.3% 131.4% 26.7% -5.0% Free float (%)
34.4% 19.8% 32.1% 36.2% 32.3% 3mth Avg daily volume
27.8% 12.5% 25.6% 26.6% 21.7% 3M - Average daily Value (Rp mn)
19.2
38.0
16.4
12.9
13.6 Average 3m Daily Turnover ($ mn)
4.8
4.7
3.8
3.2
2.8 JCI
8.6
12.6
7.5
6.1
6.1 Exchange Rate
0.3%
2.1%
1.1%
2.4%
3.1% Fiscal Year End
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
31,986
83,963
9,259
2,625
12 Jan 11
39.4%
60,951,600.00
145,274.10
16.02
3,555
9,068.00
Dec
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Company description
P&L sensitivity metrics

FY11E
Adaro is the second-largest coal company in Indonesia. In

FY09, it produced 40.6MM tons of coal and has 870MM
tons of reserves (@US$55/ton assumption) and a very low
strip ratio that keeps its costs low. Its 5,200 kcal coal,
Envirocoal, has worldwide acceptance from global power
plants due to its very low ash, sulfur, and nitrogen content.
It intends to pursue vertically integrated strategy because
aside from coal mining, it also has subsidiaries operating in
mining contracting, barging, port, and water toll operators.
Its future earnings will be driven by volume growth, cost
reduction and increased subsidiaries profitability. Adaros
volume is expected to double in five years and the cost
could be reduced by US$1-2/ton, when the mine-site
conveyer is completed. The subsidiaries contribution to
future earnings is likely to increase over time from 5.2% in
FY10E to 13.6% in FY15E.
Revenue segment chart
Source: Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates.
EBIT
EPS
impact (%)
impact (%)
11.0%
13.6%
18.4%
22.1%
5.3%
11.3%
-17.1%
-20.1%
10.9%
13.3%
Sales volume assumption (47.0MM tons)

Impact of each 10%
Coal price assumption (US$120/ton)
Impact of each 10%
Subsidiaries rev assumption (Rp 4.50 trilion)
Impact of each 10%
Cost assumption (US$44.6/ton)
Impact of each 10%
Average IDR/USD assumption (US$9,000/US$1)
Impact of each 10%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates
Price target and valuation analysis
Our price target is derived using the DCF method. From

FY11E production volume of 47MM tons, volume is
expected to grow by 8.4% in the long run. We expect
coal prices to average US$120/ton in FY11 and estimate
the long-term real average price at US$90/ton, growing
at its historical average of a 10% CAGR. In FY11, we
estimate the total cost at US$47.4/ton, growing at an
average rate of 8.4% in the long term. Our DCF value is
derived using a risk-free rate of 9.5%, equity risk
premium of 5.5% and terminal growth rate of 5.5%.
Risk-free rate:
9.5%
Market risk premium:
5.5%
Beta:
0.95
Debt/equity:
24.1%
Cost of debt:
12.8%
Terminal g:
5.50%
EPS: J.P. Morgan vs. consensus

Rp per share
J. P. Morgan
FY10E
69.2
FY11E
160.0
FY12E
202.8
Consensus
88.7
165.1
202.9
Our price target of Rp2,800 represents 17.5x FY11E P/E,

which exceeds the industry average P/E of 15.1x. Risks
are: rising coal price and lower-than-expected FY11E
earnings.
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Large earnings adjustments

Adaro's earnings are very sensitive to coal prices. J.P. Morgans global coal team
coal price adjustment from US$101/ton to US$120/ton resulted in a large earnings
adjustment to ADROs earnings forecasts. As a matter of fact, our upward
adjustment in coal prices resulted in a 29.0% rise in ADROs FY11E earnings, the
second largest rise in the industry.
Table 8: ADRO - Indonesia coal earnings adjustments
Rp per share, %
Company Name
Bumi Resources
Tambang Bukit Asam
Indo Tambang Raya
Adaro Energy
Berau Coal Energy
Indika Energy
Average
FY10E
115
861
2,202
69
22
232
New EPS
FY11E
206
1,435
3,561
160
32
440
FY12E
246
1,704
4,619
203
47
421
FY10E
148
852
2,071
70
26
210
Old EPS
FY11E
241
1,470
3,198
124
33
324
FY12E
273
1,779
3,647
144
35
295
FY10E
-22.0%
1.0%
6.3%
-0.8%
-15.3%
10.5%
4.2%
Difference (%)
FY11E
-14.6%
-2.4%
11.4%
29.0%
-0.5%
35.8%
18.4%
FY12E
-10.0%
-4.2%
26.7%
40.9%
33.3%
42.5%
26.4%
The rise in our earnings estimates led to the largest price target increase, of 40% from
Rp2,000 to Rp2,800, among our Indonesian coal company coverage. Nevertheless,
we believe an OW rating is still unwarranted as our new price target of Rp2,800
implies only 0.9% upside.
Table 9: Indonesian coal mining - Upside and upward adjustments to PTs
Rp per share, %
PTBA
ADRO
INDY
ITMG
JCI
Price
23,200
2,775
5,200
55,500
3,555
Dec-11 PT
29,000
2,800
6,300
63,000
4,100
Upside
25.0%
0.9%
21.2%
13.5%
15.3%
Old PT
27,000
2,000
5,000
54,200
Adjustment
7.4%
40.0%
26.0%
16.2%
21.7%
Neutral rating is most appropriate, in our view

In assigning a rating to Adaro, we also analyze the positive and negative factors of
the company and conclude that they are in balance.
Positives factors
Weather continued to be rainy in Indonesia until Dec 10: According to Parma
Persada, Indonesias largest mining contractor that works on most coal mines in the
country, the weather was still rainy until the end of Dec-10. As usually the rainy
season does not end until 1Q11, it expects the production output from Indonesia to be
low until 1Q11. This should provide support for global coal prices.
Table 10: ADRO - Indonesia coal mine weather conditions
1st week
2nd week
3rd week
4th week
Source: Parma Persada
Oct-10
Rain
Dry
Dry
Rain
Nov-10
Rain
Rain
Rain
Rain
Dec-10
Rain
Rain
Rain
Rain
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Adaros Tutupan mine has been the most affected by rain, and it can only get better
from here: Adaros Tutupan mine has been the most affected by rain in Indonesia
and we view that the operation could only get better.
Come April, global coal contracts will be negotiated, and coal prices could rise: As
about 70% of the global thermal seaborne coal will be priced by 1Q11, we believe
coal prices could remain stable/rise as demand surges.
Neutral factors
Our earnings forecasts are now on par with consensus forecasts: With the
incorporation of the new coal price assumption of US$120/ton, our net income
forecast for FY11 for ADRO is on par with the street forecast. Hence, the risk of a
movement in the share price due to an upward/ downward revision in consensus
earnings is minimal, in our view.
Table 11: ADRO J.P. Morgan earnings forecasts vs. consensus' forecasts
Rp B, %
Sales
Operating Profit
Net Income
EPS
FY10E
27,445
6,541
2,212
69
JPM
FY11E
36,879
11,051
5,118
160
FY12E
43,866
13,178
6,487
203
FY10E
24,734
7,129
2,799
89
Consensus
FY11E
31,738
11,171
5,274
163
FY12E
38,204
13,802
6,574
201
FY10E
11.0%
-8.3%
-21.0%
-22.0%
Difference
FY11E
16.2%
-1.1%
-3.0%
-1.7%
FY12E
14.8%
-4.5%
-1.3%
0.7%
Negative factors
Floods receding in Australia: With the floods receding in Australia, miners are
starting production again. These will cause the global seaborne coal price to decrease
from here, which does not bode well for the coal companies earnings.
Expensive short-term valuation: ADRO is the one of most expensive coal stocks in
Indonesia, based on FY11E P/E (ADRO is 16.4x vs. the industry average of 15.1x).
Tutupan mine vs. Wara mine advantage Tutupan: Because of the higher calorific
value, on an absolute dollar basis, the profit generated from Tutupan mine is 1.5x
that of Wara. This means that Adaro will have to work 1.5x harder at Wara mine to
maintain the level of absolute profit growth.
We upgrade ADRO from UW to N and raise our price target from Rp2,000 to
Rp2,800.
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Table 12: ADRO - DCF valuation

Rp B, %
Risk Free Rate (%)
Equity Risk Premium (%)
Rupiah Debt Risk Premium (%)
Beta
Cost of Equity (%)
Cost of Debt (%)
Average Debts (Rp B)
Average Equity (Rp B)
% of Debt (Target cap structure) (%)
% of Equity (Target cap structure) (%)
Tax Rate (%)
WACC (%)
Rp B
Cash Flow from Operation
Capital Expenditures
Free Cash Flow
PV of FCF & TV
Total firm value per share (Rp) Dec-11
Net cash (debt) per share (Rp) Dec-11
Equity value per share (Rp) Dec-11
20% discount applied for ST high valuation
Dec-11 PT
FY10E
9.5%
5.5%
5.5%
1.11
FY11E
9.5%
5.5%
5.5%
1.13
FY12E
9.5%
5.5%
5.5%
1.05
FY13E
9.5%
5.5%
5.5%
0.98
FY14E
9.5%
5.5%
5.5%
0.95
FY15E
9.5%
5.5%
5.5%
0.92
FY16E
9.5%
5.5%
5.5%
0.90
FY17E
9.5%
5.5%
5.5%
0.88
FY18E
9.5%
5.5%
5.5%
0.86
FY19E
9.5%
5.5%
5.5%
0.84
FY20E
9.5%
5.5%
5.5%
0.82
15.6%
13.8%
15,434
17,677
46.6
53.4
47.4%
14.7%
FY10E
2,714
(6,144)
(3,430)
(3,430)
15.7%
13.4%
14,373
20,027
41.8
58.2
45.4%
14.7%
FY11E
7,403
(4,478)
2,925
2,550
15.3%
13.1%
12,079
24,364
33.1
66.9
44.6%
14.5%
FY12E
9,715
(4,501)
5,214
3,968
14.9%
12.7%
10,286
28,367
26.6
73.4
44.7%
14.3%
FY13E
10,387
(3,837)
6,550
4,362
14.7%
12.5%
9,812
32,398
23.2
76.8
44.3%
14.2%
FY14E
9,650
(7,946)
1,704
994
14.6%
12.5%
9,812
37,215
20.9
79.1
44.0%
14.1%
FY15E
12,459
(5,484)
6,974
3,563
14.5%
12.5%
9,812
42,970
18.6
81.4
43.7%
14.1%
FY16E
14,388
(6,061)
8,327
3,729
14.3%
12.5%
9,812
50,001
16.4
83.6
43.6%
14.0%
FY17E
16,755
(6,696)
10,059
3,950
14.2%
12.5%
9,812
58,471
14.4
85.6
43.4%
14.0%
FY18E
19,538
(7,396)
12,142
4,184
14.1%
12.5%
9,812
68,642
12.5
87.5
43.3%
13.9%
FY19E
22,773
(8,168)
14,605
4,418
14.0%
12.6%
9,653
80,796
10.7
89.3
43.2%
13.9%
FY20E +TV
26,626
(9,019)
17,607
4,677
3,719
(228)
3,491
(698)
2,793
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Indika Energy
The cheapest coal name in Indonesia: At 11.3x FY11E P/E, Indika Energy is the
cheapest coal stock in Indonesia. In addition, we believe that there is the potential
for earnings upgrades by the Street as our FY11E EPS of Rp440 is 12.1% higher
than the consensus forecast of Rp392. The difference between our and the Streets
estimates could be due to the Rp340B profit recognition on PTRO spin-off. For the
past three months, INDYs share price has outperformed the JCI by 52.12%.
PTRO spin off: As Bapepam required at least 20% of PTRO to be listed, INDY will
need to sell 18.6% of PTRO to the public. The listing of PTRO is scheduled for Aug11.
New contracts as catalysts: In FY11, new contracts could also be secured at either
Tripatra or Petrosea level. We view that INDYs share price could re-rate on the back
of these new contracts.
Maintain OW, raise price target from Rp5,000 to Rp6,300: With these factors,
we maintain our OW rating on INDY. Our incorporation of the new coal price
assumptions in our model has resulted in a rise in our FY11 EPS forecast by 29%.
Extending the time horizon from June-11 to Dec-11, we raise our price target from
Rp5,000 to Rp6,300. With more than 25% upside from the current share price level,
we have selected INDY as one of our top picks in the Indonesian coal sector. Risks
to our view are non-controlling interest at Kideco and operating risks at Tripatra and
Kideco.
Indika Energy (Reuters: INDY.JK, Bloomberg: INDY IJ)
Revenue
Net Profit
EPS (Rp)
DPS (Rp)
Revenue growth (%)
EPS growth (%)
ROCE
ROE
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Dividend Yield
FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E

2,314
2,487
3,827
4,419
4,657
5,106 Shares O/S (mn)
1,084.7
725.7 1,205.8 2,283.6 2,186.0 2,223.3 Market cap (Rp bn)
208.32 139.36 232.23 439.80 421.00 428.19 Market cap ($ mn)
24
84
70
116
220
211 Price (Rp)
-1.0%
7.4% 53.9% 15.5%
5.4%
9.6% Date Of Price
309.4% -33.1% 66.6% 89.4% -4.3%
1.7% Free float (%)
3.5%
3.5%
0.9%
1.4%
1.1%
1.7% 3mth Avg daily volume
31.4% 13.8% 21.0% 32.6% 26.1% 23.5% 3M - Average daily Value (Rp mn)
23.9
35.7
21.4
11.3
11.8
11.6 Average 3m Daily Turnover ($ mn)
5.0
4.9
4.2
3.3
2.9
2.6 JCI
182.7
20.9
93.8
63.6
52.6
37.6 Exchange Rate
0.5%
1.7%
1.4%
2.3%
4.4%
5,207
25,906
2,857
4,975
12 Jan 11
30.0%
17,459,100.00
68,618.96
7.57
3,555
9,068.00
Dec
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Company description

FY11E
Indika Energy is a diversified energy company with

operations in coal mining, coal mining contracting, oil and
gas EPC contracting, and power plants. Out of its various
operations, its 46% stake in Kideco, Indonesias thirdlargest coal mining company, contributed more than 85%
of its annual profit. Other than Kideco, Indika owns 98% of
Petrosea, a group of energy companies operating in mining
contracting, engineering and contracting, and Petrosea
Offshore Supply Base. Indika also owns Tripatra, a leading
oil and gas EPC company in Indonesia with subsidiaries
operating in port, coal barging and transshipment. Finally,
Indika also owns 20% in Cirebon Electric Power, a
660MW power plant designed to take on Kidecos coal.
EBIT
EPS
impact (%)
impact (%)
0.0%
9.5%
0.0%
15.1%
-0.4%
-4.3%
0.0%
-13.0%
71.2%
13.2%
Sales volume assumption (35.2MM tons)

Impact of each 10%
Coal price assumption (US$120/ton)
Impact of each 10%
Oil price (US$91.8/barrel)
Impact of each 10%
Impact of each 10%
Impact of each 10%
Our price target is derived using the combination of

SOTP, DCF, average P/E and average EV/EBITDA
methods. From FY11E production volume of 35.2MM
tons, the volume is expected to grow by 7.2% CAGR in
the long run. We expect coal prices to average
US$120/ton in FY11 and the long-term real average
price to be US$90/ton, growing at 10% p.a. The FY11E
production cost per ton is US$44.6/ton, growing at 5.6%
CAGR in the long run. Our risk-free rate incorporated is
9.5%, equity risk premium is 5.5%, and terminal growth
rate is 5.5%. We do not incorporate any value for INDY's
reserves.
Income segment chart (FY11E)
Source: Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Risk-free rate:
9.5%
5.5%
Beta:
0.95
Debt/equity:
24.1%
Cost of debt:
12.8%
Terminal g:
5.50%

Rp per share
J. P. Morgan
FY10E
234
FY11E
444
FY12E
421
10
Consensus
237
392
441
Our price target of Rp6,300 represents 14.3x FY11E P/E,

which is relatively in line with the industry average
FY11E P/E of 15.1x. Risks are: Non-controlling interest
at Kideco and operating risks at Tripatra and Kideco.
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Table 13: INDY - New and original assumptions

MM tons, US$/ton, %
New
Coal Price (US$/ton)
Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
EBIT Profit (US$/ton)
Original
Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
Difference (%)
Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
FY10E
98.5
31.2
58.7
37.9
20.9
FY10E
95.0
31.2
57.0
37.8
19.2
FY10E
3.7%
0.0%
3.0%
0.1%
8.7%
FY11E
120.0
35.2
73.5
45.6
27.8
FY11E
101.0
31.2
63.6
37.8
25.8
FY11E
18.8%
12.7%
15.6%
20.7%
7.9%
FY12E
120.0
39.6
76.8
49.2
27.6
FY12E
105.0
31.2
66.6
37.8
28.8
FY12E
14.3%
26.9%
15.3%
30.3%
-4.3%
FY13E
120.0
44.3
77.1
52.2
24.9
FY13E
105.0
31.2
67.4
37.8
29.6
FY13E
14.3%
41.8%
14.3%
38.0%
-15.9%
FY14E
108.4
47.7
69.4
47.5
21.9
FY14E
108.4
31.2
67.3
37.8
29.5
FY14E
0.0%
52.9%
3.1%
25.7%
-25.9%
FY15E
119.2
51.2
71.5
49.4
22.1
FY15E
119.2
31.2
71.5
37.8
33.7
FY15E
0.0%
64.1%
0.0%
30.6%
-34.4%
Table 14: INDY - New forecasts compared consensus forecasts and our original forecasts
Rp B, %, Rp per share
Sales
Op Profit
Net Ince
EPS
FY10E
3,827
52
1,206
232
JPM
FY11E
4,419
103
2,284
440
FY12E
4,657
93
2,186
421
FY10E
3,682
198
1,212
237
Consensus
FY11E
4,349
294
2,003
392
FY12E
4,887
347
2,252
441
Difference (%)
FY10E FY11E FY12E
3.9%
1.6%
-4.7%
-73.7% -65.2% -73.2%
-0.5%
14.0%
-3.0%
-2.1%
12.1%
-4.6%
FY10E
3,793
46
1,092
210
Original
FY11E
4,419
102
1,682
324
FY12E
4,657
93
1,534
295
Difference (%)
FY10E FY11E FY12E
0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
13.5%
0.3%
0.4%
10.5%
35.8%
42.5%
10.5%
35.8%
42.5%
Table 15: INDY - SOTP valuation

Rp per share
Kideco @46% ownership
Santan @50% ownership
West Kalimantan Project
Tripatra @100% ownership
Petrosea @80% ownership
Power Plant @20% ownership
HQ cost
SOTP Value per share
Net Cash per share
Net Debt per share
SOTP Value Per Share
DCF Value Per share
Average FY11E PE
FY11E EV/EBITDA
Average Value per share
Value per share

6,988.4
414.0
957.4
(4.0)
515.9
42.5
(1,630.0)
Holding Period Disc

20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
Value per share

5,590.7
331.2
765.9
(3.2)
412.7
34.0
(1,304.0)
5,827.3
540.7
(883.3)
5,484.6
6,639.9
6,654.6
6,482.8
6,315.5
11
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah

Model revisited: We revisit our model on ITMG and make the following
adjustments: (1) raise our FY11 coal price assumption from US$120/ton to
US$101/ton; (2) lower our FY11 volume forecast from 27MM to 26MM, in line with
the companys guidance; (3) extend our price target from June-11 to Dec-11; and (4)
adjust beta from 1.506 to 1.621 as the trading pattern has changed.
Lower FY11E volume: Besides the adjustments to coal price assumption, we also
lower our FY11 volume forecast from 27MM tons to 26MM tons to bring it in line
with the lower guidance from the company. The adjustments to our coal price
assumption (up from US$101/ton to US$120/ton) and volume raise our FY11 EPS
estimate by 11.4%. Our FY11E net income of US$447MM is 10.5% below the
Streets forecast. Given that the recent actual reported earnings are below those of
consensus forecasts, we believe there is potential for downward earnings revision by
the Street.
No significant upside: After our model revisit, our calculation yields a Dec-11 fair
value estimate and price target of Rp60,000 per share, which implies less than 10%
upside from the current share price . In view of this, we believe that ITMG will only
perform in line with the market over the next 6-12 months. Over the past three
months, ITMG has outperformed the JCI by 27.7%.
Maintain Neutral, extend and raise price target to Rp60,000: We maintain
Neutral on ITMG. The extension of our time horizon from June-11 to Dec-11 results
in a rise in our PT from Rp54,200 to Rp60,000. The risks to our view and price target
are lower-than-expected FY11E EPS and a rise in coal prices.
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah (Reuters: ITMG.JK, Bloomberg: ITMG IJ)
$ in bn, year-end Dec
Revenue ($ mn)
Net Profit ($ mn)
EPS ($)
DPS ($)
Revenue growth (%)
EPS growth (%)
ROCE
ROE
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Dividend Yield
FY08A
1,317
235
0.21
0.08
70.6%
321.1%
58.1%
44.0%
29.0
11.1
17.1
1.3%
12
FY09A FY10E
1,508
1,665
336
276
0.30
0.24
0.13
0.18
14.5% 10.4%
42.8% -17.6%
59.5% 47.1%
48.0% 33.3%
20.3
24.6
8.6
7.8
13.2
13.4
2.2%
3.0%
FY11E
2,171
447
0.40
0.15
30.4%
61.7%
52.7%
44.1%
15.2
5.9
9.0
2.4%
FY12E
2,682
580
0.51
0.24
23.6%
29.7%
53.1%
44.2%
11.7
4.6
6.5
3.9%
FY13E
2,942
593
0.52
0.31
9.7%
2.3%
45.6%
37.3%
11.5
4.0
6.3
5.1%
Shares O/S (mn)

Market cap ($ bn)
Market cap ($ mn)
Price (Rp)
Date Of Price
Free float (%)
3mth Avg daily volume
3M - Average daily Value (Rp mn)
Average 3m Daily Turnover ($ mn)
JCI
Exchange Rate
Fiscal Year End
1,130
7
6,803
54,600
12 Jan 11
35.0%
1,511,103.00
75,415.13
8.32
3,555
9,068.00
Dec
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Company Description
ITMG is controlled by Banpu of Thailand, which has a

65% stake. ITMGs main mines are Indominco, Truba
Alam-Bharinto, Jorong, and Kitadin. In terms of
production, ITMG produces about 20MM+ tons of coal,
most of which is exported. Most of the ITMG
production is exported to Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, and
China. ITMG will soon start mining in the East Block of
Indominco and South Block of Truba Alam. In addition,
the planned conveyer system at Indominco could save
about US$4.2-5.7/ton starting FY12E.
Coal Price Assumption (US$120/ton)

Impact of each 10%
Volume assumption (26.0MM tons)
Impact of each 10%
Impact of each 10%
Debt/equity assumption (0.22x)
Impact of each 10%
Average IDR/USD assumption
(US$9,000/US1)
Impact of each 10%
FY11E
EBIT
impact
(%)
EPS
impact
(%)
13.4%
13.4%
10.6%
10.6%
-18.1%
-18.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Our price target is derived using the DCF method. The

average coal price assumed for FY11 is US$120 per ton and
due to calorific value difference, ITMG's average FY11 ASP
is forecast to be US$93.5 per ton. The long-term real average
coal price is assumed to be US$90/ton with a nominal
growth rate of 10%, in line with the historical nominal
change in coal price. The total cost per ton in FY11 is
forecast to be an average US$62.5 per ton, growing at a
6.0% CAGR. Our DCF value is derived using a risk-free rate
of 9.5%, equity risk premium of 5.5% and terminal growth
rate of 5.5%. We did not incorporate any value for ITMG's
reserves.
Revenue segment chart (FY11E)
Risk free rate:
9.5%
5.5%
Beta:
1.64
Debt/equity:
0.19
Cost of debt:
10%
Source: Company reports and JP Morgan estimates
Terminal g:
5.5%
Our price target of Rp60,000 represents 16.9x FY11E, which

is fair, in our view, given that it is close to the industry
average of 15.1x. The risks to our view and price target are
lower-than-expected FY11E EPS and a rise in coal prices.
US$/share
J. P. Morgan
Consensus
FY10E
0.245
0.263
FY11E
0.396
0.432
FY12E
0.513
0.515
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan.
13
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Table 16: ITMG - New and original assumptions

US$/ton, MM tons, %
FY10E
98.5
22.5
74.4
57.7
16.7
FY10E
95.0
22.5
74.4
57.2
17.2
FY10E
3.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
-3.0%

Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
FY11E
120.0
26.0
93.5
62.5
31.1
FY11E
101.0
27.0
81.6
57.9
23.7
FY11E
18.8%
-3.7%
14.6%
7.8%
31.3%
FY12E
120.0
28.6
97.7
66.9
30.8
FY12E
105.0
28.6
84.6
60.5
24.1
FY12E
14.3%
0.0%
15.4%
10.6%
27.4%
FY13E
110.0
32.0
89.6
67.0
22.6
FY13E
105.0
32.0
83.7
62.0
21.7
FY13E
4.8%
0.0%
7.1%
8.1%
4.3%
FY14E
108.4
38.0
85.5
64.3
21.2
FY14E
108.4
38.0
84.5
62.2
22.3
FY14E
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
3.3%
-4.9%
FY15E
119.2
40.1
91.2
66.0
25.2
FY15E
119.2
40.1
91.2
65.6
25.6
FY15E
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
-1.6%
Table 17: ITMG - New forecasts compared to consensus forecasts and our original forecasts
US$MM, %, US$ per share
Sales
Op Profit
Net Income
EPS
FY10E
1,665
419
276
0.245
JPM
FY11E
2,171
616
447
0.396
FY12E
2,682
841
580
0.513
FY10E
1,667
439
305
0.263
Consensus
FY11E FY12E
2,116
2,377
669
791
500
592
0.432
0.515
Difference (%)
FY10E FY11E FY12E
-0.1%
2.6%
12.8%
-4.6%
-7.9%
6.3%
-9.3% -10.5%
-2.0%
-7.0%
-8.4%
-0.3%
FY10E
1,631
396
260
0.230
Original
FY11E
2,049
554
402
0.355
FY12E
2,326
668
458
0.405
Difference (%)
FY10E FY11E FY12E
2.1%
5.9%
15.3%
5.6%
11.1%
25.8%
6.3%
11.4%
26.7%
6.3%
11.4%
26.7%
Table 18: ITMG - DCF valuation

US$MM, Rp per share, %
Risk Free Rate (%)
Equity Risk Premium (%)
Rupiah Debt Risk Premium (%)
Beta
FY10E
9.5%
5.5%
3.5%
1.62
FY11E
9.5%
5.5%
3.5%
1.62
FY12E
9.5%
5.5%
3.5%
1.66
FY13E
9.5%
5.5%
3.5%
1.66
FY14E
9.5%
5.5%
3.5%
1.65
FY15E
9.5%
5.5%
3.5%
1.64
FY16E
9.5%
5.5%
3.5%
1.64
FY17E
9.5%
5.5%
3.5%
1.63
FY18E
9.5%
5.5%
3.5%
1.63
FY19E
9.5%
5.5%
3.5%
1.63
FY20E
9.5%
5.5%
3.5%
1.63
FY21E
9.5%
5.5%
3.5%
1.63
Cost of Equity (%) in Rupiah
18.4%
18.4%
18.6%
18.6%
18.6%
18.5%
18.5%
18.5%
18.5%
18.5%
18.5%
18.5%
Cost of Debt (%) in Rupiah

5.8%
Average Debts (Rp B)
58
Average Equity (Rp B)
831
% of Debt (Target cap structure-%)
6.5
% of Equity Target cap structure - %
93.5
Tax Rate (%)
23.9%
WACC (%)
17.6%
US$MM
FY10E
Cash Flow from Operation
363
Capital Expenditures
(67)
Free Cash Flow
296
PV of FCF & TV
296
Total firm value per share (Rp) Dec-11
Net cash (debt) per share (Rp) Dec-11
Equity value per share (Rp) Dec-11
10.0%
152
1,015
13.1
86.9
26.6%
17.3%
FY11E
536
(268)
268
229
10.0%
273
1,311
17.2
82.8
29.5%
17.1%
FY12E
681
(150)
530
386
10.0%
316
1,590
16.6
83.4
29.1%
17.2%
FY13E
683
(333)
351
218
10.0%
351
1,858
15.9
84.1
29.5%
17.2%
FY14E
732
(94)
639
339
10.0%
383
2,130
15.2
84.8
29.4%
17.2%
FY15E
719
(78)
642
290
10.0%
415
2,423
14.6
85.4
29.4%
17.3%
FY16E
812
(97)
715
276
10.0%
470
2,795
14.4
85.6
29.6%
17.3%
FY17E
946
(116)
829
273
10.0%
542
3,240
14.3
85.7
29.6%
17.3%
FY18E
1,097
(127)
970
272
10.0%
626
3,759
14.3
85.7
29.7%
17.3%
FY19E
1,271
(138)
1,133
271
10.0%
723
4,367
14.2
85.8
29.7%
17.3%
FY20E
1,474
(151)
1,323
270
10.0%
836
5,080
14.1
85.9
29.8%
17.3%
FY21E & TV
1,720
(168)
15,457
2,687
51,466
8,559
60,024
14
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam

Model revisited: We revisit our model for PTBA and incorporate following
adjustments: (1) raised FY11 coal price assumption from US$101/ton to
US$120/ton; (2) raised royalty rate assumption from FY11 to FY15 from 5% to
13.5% as after our meeting with the Directorate General of Minerals and Coal
Mining, we evaluate the potential immediate affect of higher royalty; (3) raised
discount for Bangko Tengah power plant project from 70% to 85% as the realization
has further stalled; and (4) lowered beta assumption from 1.435 to 1.385. These
adjustments result in us lowering our FY11 EPS forecast by 2.4% and currently our
new FY11 EPS estimate is in line with that of consensus (3.7%). Over the past three
months, PTBAs share price has outperformed by 11.1%.
Raising stake in BATR from 10% to 30%: It was reported in Bisnis Indonesia that
PTBA is likely to increase its stake in the Transpacific Railway consortium from
10% to 30%. The fee to be paid for the increased stake will be minimal but will
require higher investment from PTBA to build the US$1.3 billion project.
Realignment design resubmitted to regional governments post feedback:
Following the feedback from regional governments, BATR has resubmitted the
alignment design as the previous one was overruled in certain sections as it was
passing through protected forest and some densely populated areas. With the
resubmission and rework, we believe the approvals from the regional governments
are likely to be obtained.
We maintain our OW rating, and extend and raise our PT from Rp27,000 to
Rp29,000: We maintain our Overweight rating on PTBA, roll over our price target
time frame from Jun-11 to Dec-11 and raise our price target from Rp27,000 to
Rp29,000. Risks to our view and price target include execution risk and project
delays.
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (Reuters: PTBA.JK, Bloomberg: PTBA IJ)

Revenue
Net Profit
EPS (Rp)
DPS (Rp)
Revenue growth (%)
EPS growth (%)
ROCE
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield
FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E

7,216
8,948
8,750 13,726 16,924 22,557 Shares O/S (mn)
1,708
2,728
1,984
3,307
3,927
4,293 Market Cap (Rp bn)
740.98 1,183.53 860.70 1,434.92 1,703.88 1,862.62 Market Cap ($ mn)
165
437
698
508
847
1,005 Price (Rp)
75.0%
24.0% -2.2%
56.9%
23.3%
33.3% Date Of Price
135.2% 59.7% -27.3% 66.7%
18.7%
9.3% Free float (%)
74.7%
73.2% 40.5%
52.8%
44.7%
42.5% 3-mth trading value (Rp mn)
51.2%
56.2% 33.7%
46.0%
42.3%
38.3% 3-mth trading value ($ mn)
31.2
19.5
26.8
16.1
13.6
12.4 3-mth trading volume (bn)
13.3
9.3
8.8
6.4
5.2
4.3 JCI
20.5
14.1
20.9
10.8
8.7
7.8 Exchange Rate
0.7%
1.9%
3.0%
2.2%
3.7%
2,304
53,225
5,870
23,100
12 Jan 11
35.0%
82,361.02
9.08
0.00
3,555
9,068
Dec
15
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Company description
FY11E
PTBA is a state-owned company in which the government

of Indonesia owns 65%. The companys main coal mine is
in Tanjung Enim, South Sumatra. In addition to Tanjung
Enim, PTBA also owns several mines in South Sumatra:
Ombilin and Cerenti mines, plus several other mines in
Kalimantan. In total, PTBAs minable reserves stand at 2
billion tons. Currently PTBA is embarking on several
projects that could increase its annual production volume
from 12.0 million tons in FY09 to 55 million tons by FY15.
These projects are:
EPS
impact (%)
17.3%
19.0%
15.2%
16.6%
-14.6%
-16.1%
0.0%
-0.3%
2.8%
2.1%
Coal Price Assumption (US$120/ton)

Impact of each 10%
Volume assumption (17.4MM tons)
Impact of each 10%
Impact of each 10%
Debt/equity assumption (0.46x)
Impact of each 10%
1. Expansion of Tanjung Enim - Kertapati railways.

2. Banjarsari mine mouth power plant project. (2 x
100MW)
3. Bangko Tengah mine mouth power plant project. (4 x
600MW)
4. Mine acquisitions in Kalimantan.
EBIT
impact (%)

Impact of each 10%
5. South Sumatra - Lampung railway projects.
6. Adani railway - Tanjung Enim to Palembang

Revenue breakdown
Our new price target is derived using the SOTP method. Our
SOTP valuation incorporates the DCF value of each project that
PTBA is embarking on. We assume an FY11 coal price of
US$120 per ton and, due to calorific value difference, PTBAs
average overall ASP (excluding brisket) is forecast to be
US$95.3 per ton. The total cost per ton is forecast to average
US$55.6 per ton. Our DCF value is derived using a risk-free rate
of 9.5%, equity risk premium of 5.5% and terminal growth rate
of 5.5%. We did not incorporate any value to PTBAs reserves.
Risk free rate:
9.5%
5.5%
Beta:
1.56
Debt/equity:
22.9%
Cost of debt:
10.0%
Terminal g:
5.5%

Rp
J. P. Morgan
Consensus
FY10E
861
945
FY11E
1,435
1,506
FY12E
1,704
1,757
16
Our price target of Rp29,000 represents 20.2x FY11E P/E.

Given the long tail nature of PTBA for which most of the
earnings will come in later years, its FY11E P/E multiple could
be on the higher side. Risks to our view and PT include
execution risk and project delays.
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Table 19: PTBANew and earlier assumptions

US$/ton, MM tons
New
Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
EBIT (US$/ton)
Original
Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
EBIT (US$/ton)
Difference (%)
Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
EBIT (US$/ton)
FY10E
96.00
13.88
67.97
47.07
20.89
FY10E
95.00
13.88
70.06
47.51
22.55
FY10E
1.1%
0.0%
-3.0%
-0.9%
-7.3%
FY11E
120.00
16.00
92.42
56.30
36.11
FY11E
101.00
17.40
81.64
47.63
34.00
FY11E
18.8%
-8.0%
13.2%
18.2%
6.2%
FY12E
120.00
18.91
95.47
58.12
37.35
FY12E
105.00
20.70
83.89
48.62
35.26
FY12E
14.3%
-8.6%
13.8%
19.5%
5.9%
FY13E
110.00
23.83
87.07
55.01
32.06
FY13E
105.00
24.37
82.35
47.65
34.70
FY13E
4.8%
-2.2%
5.7%
15.5%
-7.6%
FY14E
108.36
37.12
84.49
59.74
24.75
FY14E
108.36
39.85
77.54
48.53
29.01
FY14E
0.0%
-6.9%
9.0%
23.1%
-14.7%
FY15E
119.19
49.63
82.32
54.96
27.36
FY15E
119.19
55.00
68.45
40.36
28.08
FY15E
0.0%
-9.8%
20.3%
36.2%
-2.6%
Table 20: PTBANew forecasts vs. consensus forecasts and our earlier forecasts
Rp B, %
Revenue
Op profit
EBITDA
Net profit
EPS (Rp)
FY10E
8,750
2,384
2,522
1,984
861
New
FY11E
13,726
4,857
4,929
3,307
1,435
FY12E
16,924
5,939
6,047
3,927
1,704
FY10E
8,696
2,634
2,836
2,163
941
Consensus
FY11E
11,638
4,355
4,624
3,422
1,489
FY12E
13,569
5,177
5,487
4,028
1,738
Difference (%)
FY10E FY11E FY12E
0.6%
17.9%
24.7%
-9.5%
11.5%
14.7%
-11.1%
6.6%
10.2%
-8.3%
-3.4%
-2.5%
-8.6%
-3.7%
-2.0%
FY10E
8,724
2,358
2,496
1,964
852
Original
FY11E
13,203
4,969
5,041
3,389
1,470
FY12E
16,298
6,186
6,293
4,101
1,779
Difference (%)
FY10E FY11E FY12E
0.3%
4.0%
3.8%
1.1%
-2.3%
-4.0%
1.1%
-2.2%
-3.9%
1.0%
-2.4%
-4.2%
1.0%
-2.4%
-4.2%
Table 21: PTBASOTP valuation

US$MM, Rp per share
SOTP
US$ MM In RpB JPM Comments
NPV of existing coal operation (Rp B)
4,260 38,696
Banko Tengah PP
178 1,618 Assign 85% discount as the realization is stalled
Banjarsari PP
23
212 Assign 70% discount as the realization is stalled
Transpacific railways
418 3,793 Assign 15% discount as the realization has improved
Integrated transportation
284 2,576
Sale of coal to power plants
394 3,575 Assign 84.6% discount as the realization is stalled
Transpacific coal sale
1,702 15,457 Assign 15% discount as the realization has improved
Kalimantan Mines
541 4,917 Assign 50% discount to account for delay
Total NPV (Rp in billion)
7,799 70,842
Debt
(4,000)
Cash
5,977
20% discount to potential prolonged delay
(708) (6,429)
Equity value per share (Rp)
28,806
SOTP without discount

NPV of existing coal operation (Rp B)
Banko Tengah PP
Banjarsari PP
Transpacific railways
Integrated transportation
Sale of coal to power plants
Transpacific coal sale
Kalimantan Mines
Total NPV (Rp in billion)
Debt
Cash
Equity value per share (Rp)
In RpB
38,696
10,786
707
4,462
2,576
23,216
18,184
9,833
108,459
(4,000)
5,977
47,917
17
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Bumi Resources
Next possible catalysts: We see several potential catalysts: (1) According to Kontan,
Bumi will start to pay back its high-cost debt, with the assistance of Vallar. (2) In a
conference call, Vallar indicated that it could raise its stake in Bumi from 25% to
more than 51%. (3) A rise in the copper price estimate (J.P. Morgans expectation)
could translate into a higher stock price for Bumi Resource Minerals (BRMS IJ). (4)
Newmont Nusa Tenggaras potential IPO in FY11 (which has been announced by
Newmont Mining Corp) should serve as a catalyst to drive up the share price of
BRMS.
Fund raising at Vallar Plc needed: In order to assist BUMI to pay back its nearly
US$4 billion of debt, our calculation indicates that fund raising will be needed at
Vallar. The reason is that post payment of US$733 million to Recapital, the cash
balance at Vallar will only be US$367 million, which is insufficient to acquire
additional 25% of BUMI which is currently worth about US$1.65 billion. In
addition, to assist BUMI to pay back the US$1.9 billion CIC loan, it will need to
raise an additional US$1.2-1.3 billion.
We revisit our model: We revisit our model for BUMI and incorporate the
following adjustments: (1) Raise our FY11 coal price assumption from US$101/ton
to US$120/ton. (2) Lower our FY10 volume assumption from 64 million tons to 59.3
million tons. (4) Incorporate the lower-than-expected 9M10 results. (5) Incorporate
the value of BRMS into our SOTP valuation, substituting the value of Batu Hijau
which has been included in BRMS valuation. These adjustments result in a 23.8%
reduction in our FY11 EPS estimate. Currently, our FY11 EPS forecast is lower than
the Street by 21.2%.
Performance: Bumis share price has outperformed the market by 33.4% over the
past three months.
Bumi Resources (Reuters: BUMI.JK, Bloomberg: BUMI IJ)
$ in , year-end Dec
Revenue ($ mn)
Net Profit ($ mn)
EPS ($)
DPS ($)
Revenue growth (%)
EPS growth (%)
ROCE
ROE
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Dividend Yield
FY08A FY09A
3,378
3,219
372
190
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
49.1% -4.7%
-52.8% -48.8%
55.2% 18.5%
32.5% 14.4%
17.7
34.5
5.6
4.5
6.9
13.4
1.6%
1.7%
18
FY10E
4,203
258
0.01
0.00
30.6%
29.2%
24.1%
14.1%
26.7
3.2
6.2
0.8%
FY11E
6,264
488
0.02
0.00
49.0%
80.4%
30.6%
20.4%
14.8
2.8
4.7
1.1%
FY12E
7,542
582
0.03
0.01
20.4%
19.3%
32.8%
20.7%
12.4
2.4
4.2
2.0%
FY13E
8,276
609
0.03
0.01
9.7%
4.6%
30.3%
18.8%
11.9
2.1
3.9
2.4%
Shares O/S (mn)

Price (Rp)
Date Of Price
Free float (%)
3mth Avg daily volume
3M - Average daily Value (Rp mn)
Average 3m Daily Turnover ($ mn)
JCI
Exchange Rate
Fiscal Year End
20,773
3,075
12 Jan 11
78.5%
136,190,100.00
371,810.00
41.00
3,555
9,068.00
Dec
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Table 22: BUMINew and earlier assumptions

US$/ton, MM tons
New
Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
Original
Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
Difference (%)
Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
FY10E
96.0
59.3
66.1
45.9
FY10E
95.0
64.0
64.3
45.5
FY10E
1.1%
-7.3%
2.8%
0.9%
FY11E
120.0
70.5
82.3
55.7
FY11E
101.0
77.3
70.9
46.3
FY11E
18.8%
-8.8%
16.2%
20.4%
FY12E
120.0
82.5
84.9
58.9
FY12E
105.0
90.3
72.9
49.4
FY12E
14.3%
-8.6%
16.5%
19.2%
FY13E
110.0
96.5
79.3
57.9
FY13E
105.0
105.2
73.3
51.0
FY13E
4.8%
-8.3%
8.2%
13.6%
FY14E
108.4
102.0
81.9
61.4
FY14E
108.4
111.2
80.1
55.0
FY14E
0.0%
-8.3%
2.3%
11.6%
FY15E
119.2
103.9
91.0
67.0
FY15E
119.2
113.2
89.8
61.1
FY15E
0.0%
-8.2%
1.3%
9.7%
Difference (%)
FY11E
19.0%
14.9%
-10.4%
-21.2%
FY12E
22.0%
8.5%
-12.8%
-19.8%
Table 23: BUMINew forecasts vs. consensus

US$ in millions, US$ per share
Sales
Op Profit
Net Income
EPS
FY10E
4,203
1,078
258
0.013
New
FY11E
6,264
1,872
488
0.023
FY12E
7,542
2,177
582
0.027
FY10E
4,078
1,106
317
0.016
Consensus
FY11E
5,265
1,629
545
0.029
FY12E
6,180
2,008
668
0.034
FY10E
3.1%
-2.6%
-18.4%
-20.8%
Table 24: BUMINew and original forecasts

US$ in millions, %
Sales
Operating Profit
Net Income
EPS
FY10E
4,203
1,078
258
0.013
New
FY11E
6,264
1,872
488
0.023
FY12E
7,542
2,177
582
0.027
FY10E
4,666
1,501
377
0.020
Original
FY11E
6,045
2,064
621
0.030
FY12E
6,989
2,118
628
0.030
FY10E
-9.9%
-28.2%
-31.5%
-36.6%
Difference (%)
FY11E
3.6%
-9.3%
-21.4%
-23.8%
FY12E
7.9%
2.8%
-7.3%
-9.1%
19
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk

We revist our model: We revisit our model for BRAU and incorporate the
following adjustments: (1) incorporate J.P. Morgans higher coal price assumption at
US$120/ton vs US$101/ton; (2) incorporate the lower-than-expected 9M10 results;
and (3) roll over our price target timeframe from Jun-11 to Dec-11. These
adjustments do not result in significant adjustments to our FY11 EPS forecast
(-0.5%) and our new EPS estimate of Rp32 barely differs (-0.5%) from consensus.
Further acquisition potential: In Bisnis Indonesia, BRAUs director Didik
Cahyanto was quoted as saying that BRAU is looking to acquire several mid-size
mining companies. The target companies are those that can still produce for five
years.
Awarded DOID US$500MM contract: As indicated in Bisnis Indonesia, BRAU
was awarded Delta Dunia for a five-year US$500 million contract to be the mining
contractor at BRAUs Lati mine. The contract covers overburden removal of 226.8
cubic meters and coal production of 20.7 million tons. The contract will start in Mar11 and is in addition to the existing contract between DOID and BRAU which is up
to FY18.
Performance: Over the past three months BRAU has outperformed JCI by 13.2%.
PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (Reuters: BRAU.JK, Bloomberg: BRAU IJ)
Rp in , year-end Dec
Revenue (Rp bn)
Net Profit (Rp bn)
EPS
DPS
Revenue growth (%)
EPS growth (%)
ROCE
ROE
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Dividend Yield
FY08A
6,110
170.1
4.87
77.4%
565.8%
294.7%
76.2%
110.8
49.9
-0.7
FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E

8,319
9,470 12,225 15,570 17,628 Shares O/S (mn)
853.7
761.6 1,128.7 1,635.0 1,651.2 Price (Rp)
24.46
21.82
32.34
46.85
47.31 Date Of Price
1
7
7
10
14 Free float (%)
36.1% 13.8% 29.1% 27.4% 13.2% 3mth Avg daily volume
401.9% -10.8% 48.2% 44.9%
1.0% 3M - Average daily Value (Rp mn)
86.7% 34.3% 36.0% 47.0% 45.1% Average 3m Daily Turnover ($ mn)
44.0% 17.2% 19.4% 23.6% 20.3% JCI
22.1
24.7
16.7
11.5
11.4 Exchange Rate
5.4
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.2 Fiscal Year End
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.5
0.3%
1.4%
1.2%
1.8%
2.6%
20
34,900
540
12 Jan 11
90.3%
102,778,300.00
52,005.15
5.74
3,555
9,068.00
Dec
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Table 25: BRAUNew and original assumptions

US$/ton, MM tons
New
Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
Original
Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
Difference (%)
Volume (MM tons)
ASP (US$/ton)
Cost (US$/ton)
FY10E
98.5
16.0
64.0
46.9
17.1
FY10E
95.0
17.5
58.0
45.2
12.8
FY10E
3.7%
-8.6%
10.4%
3.9%
33.2%
FY11E
120.0
19.5
68.4
50.7
17.7
FY11E
101.0
20.6
63.7
46.5
17.2
FY11E
18.8%
-5.5%
7.4%
9.2%
2.7%
FY12E
120.0
23.0
73.9
53.7
20.2
FY12E
105.0
23.8
66.7
51.5
15.3
FY12E
14.3%
-3.2%
10.7%
4.4%
32.1%
FY13E
110.0
26.5
72.6
55.3
17.4
FY13E
105.0
26.9
64.7
54.3
10.4
FY13E
4.8%
-1.4%
12.3%
1.8%
66.9%
FY14E
108.4
30.0
67.6
54.9
12.7
FY14E
108.4
30.0
67.4
53.0
14.4
FY14E
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
3.6%
-12.2%
FY15E
119.2
31.5
70.6
59.3
11.3
FY15E
119.2
31.5
70.7
57.2
13.5
FY15E
0.0%
0.0%
-0.2%
3.7%
-16.6%
Table 26: BRAUJ.P. Morgan and consensus forecasts

Rp B, %
Sales
Operating Profit
Net Income
EPS
FY10E
9,470
2,655
762
22
JPM
FY11E
12,225
3,321
1,129
32
FY12E
15,570
4,455
1,635
47
FY10E
9,299
2,188
900
26
Consensus
FY11E
12,038
3,409
1,135
33
FY12E
14,523
3,525
1,226
35
FY10E
1.8%
21.3%
-15.3%
-15.3%
Difference (%)
FY11E
1.6%
-2.6%
-0.5%
-0.5%
FY12E
7.2%
26.4%
33.3%
33.3%
Source: Blomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Table 27: BRAUNew and original forecasts

Rp B, %
Sales
Operating Profit
Net Income
EPS
FY10E
9,470
2,655
762
22
JPM
FY11E
12,225
3,321
1,129
32
FY12E
15,570
4,455
1,635
47
FY10E
9,299
2,188
900
26
Original
FY11E
12,038
3,409
1,135
33
FY12E
14,523
3,525
1,226
35
FY10E
1.8%
21.3%
-15.3%
-15.3%
Difference (%)
FY11E
1.6%
-2.6%
-0.5%
-0.5%
FY12E
7.2%
26.4%
33.3%
33.3%
21
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
JPM Q-Profile
Adaro Energy (INDONESIA / Energy)
As Of: 07-Jan-2011
Quant_Strategy@jpmorgan.com
Earnings Yield (& local bond Yield)

40%
12Mth fwd EY
Current:
Indonesia BY
6%
Implied Value Of Growth*
Current:
170.11
Dec-10
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Current:
Dec-99
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
0.00
Dec-02
50.00
0.00
Dec-01
100.00
500.00
Dec-00
150.00
1,000.00
Dec-99
200.00
1,500.00
Dec-98
250.00
2,000.00
Dec-97
2,500.00
Dec-96
300.00
Dec-95
3,000.00
Dec-09
12 Mth Forward EPS
Dec-98
2775.00
Dec-97
Current:
Dec-96
Local Share Price
51.07%
1.20
Proxy
1.00
35%
0.80
30%
0.60
25%
0.40
20%
0.20
0.00
15%
-0.20
10%
PE (1Yr Forward)
Current:
16.3x
25.0x
Price/Book Value
Current:
30.0x
PBV hist
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
-0.80
Dec-96
-0.60
0%
Dec-95
5%
Dec-96
-0.40
4.8x
PBV Forward
25.0x
20.0x
20.0x
15.0x
15.0x
10.0x
10.0x
5.0x
0.0x
5.0x
-5.0x
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-09
1.14
Dec-10
Dec-08
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Current:
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
0.0
Dec-05
0.2
0.00
Dec-04
0.4
5.00
Dec-03
0.6
10.00
Dec-02
0.8
15.00
Dec-01
1.0
20.00
Dec-00
1.2
25.00
Dec-99
1.4
30.00
Dec-98
1.6
35.00
Dec-97
40.00
Dec-96
1.8
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
Dec-97
15.34
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Current:
45.00
Dec-96
ROE (Trailing)
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
-10.0x
Dec-95
0.0x
Summary
Adaro Energy
INDONESIA
Energy
12mth Forward PE
P/BV (Trailing)
ROE (Trailing)
Implied Value of Growth
9865.08
16.15717 SEDOL
B3BQFC4
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Latest
Min
Max
2.67
16.31
16.31x
4.83x
1.11
23.72
1.14
0.00
1.53
15.34
6.98
40.74
-0.68
0.58
51.1%
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Global Fundamentals, IBES CONSENSUS, J.P. Morgan Calcs
22
Median
12.65
3.25
0.92
23.94
0.42
Average
11.38
4.21
0.75
23.35
0.31
2 S.D.+
19.72
14.25
1.95
47.81
0.98
2 S.D. 3.05
-5.82
-0.45
-1.11
-0.37
% to Min
-84%
-77%
-100%
-55%
-233%
As Of:
Local Price:
EPS:
% to Max % to Med
0%
-22%
391%
-33%
34%
-19%
166%
56%
14%
-17%
* Implied Value Of Growth = (1 - EY/Cost of equity) where cost of equity =Bond Yield + 5.0% (ERP)
7-Jan-11
2,775.00
170.11
% to Avg
-30%
-13%
-34%
52%
-40%
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
JPM Q-Profile
Bumi Resources (INDONESIA / Energy)
As Of: 07-Jan-2011
Local Share Price
Current:
3275.00
9,000.00
12 Mth Forward EPS
Current:
0.03
0.08
8,000.00
0.06
7,000.00
6,000.00
0.04
5,000.00
0.02
4,000.00
3,000.00
0.00
2,000.00
-0.02
1,000.00

80%
12Mth fwd EY
Current:
Indonesia BY
8%
Current:
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
-0.04
Dec-95
0.00
37.51%
2.00
Proxy
1.50
70%
1.00
60%
0.50
0.00
50%
-0.50
40%
-1.00
30%
-1.50
20%
-2.00
-2.50
10%
-3.00
PE (1Yr Forward)
Current:
12.8x
Price/Book Value
80.0x
160.0x
70.0x
140.0x
Current:
PBV hist
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
-3.50
Dec-95
0%
4.7x
PBV Forward
120.0x
60.0x
100.0x
50.0x
80.0x
40.0x
60.0x
30.0x
40.0x
20.0x
20.0x
ROE (Trailing)
Current:
10.09
Current:
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
-40.0x
Dec-96
0.0x
Dec-95
-20.0x
Dec-96
0.0x
10.0x
0.92
12.0
250.00
200.00
10.0
150.00
100.00
8.0
50.00
6.0
0.00
-50.00
4.0
-100.00
-150.00
2.0
-200.00
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
0.0
Dec-95
-250.00
Summary
Bumi Resources
INDONESIA
Energy
12mth Forward PE
P/BV (Trailing)
ROE (Trailing)
6890.62
37.80816 SEDOL
6043485
Latest
Min
Max
12.77x
4.70x
-8.60
142.04
0.92
0.00
10.71
-229.18
187.13
10.09
37.5%
-2.88
1.00
Median
Average
2 S.D.+
2 S.D. -
3.43
0.00
15.12
0.32
6.33
0.69
12.88
0.20
39.40
3.48
185.14
1.38
-26.73
-2.10
-159.38
-0.99
As Of:
Local Price:
EPS:
% to Min % to Max % to Med
-283%
-100%
-2371%
-867%
2919%
1062%
1754%
167%
-27%
-100%
50%
-13%
7-Jan-11
3,275.00
0.03
% to Avg
35%
-25%
28%
-47%
23
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
JPM Q-Profile
Berau Coal Energy (INDONESIA / Energy)
As Of: 07-Jan-2011
Local Share Price
Current:
550.00
12 Mth Forward EPS
Current:
33.91
40.00
600.00
35.00
500.00
30.00
400.00
25.00
20.00
300.00
15.00
200.00
10.00
100.00
5.00

20%
12Mth fwd EY
Current:
Indonesia BY
6%
Current:
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
0.00
Dec-95
0.00
50.79%
0.60
Proxy
18%
0.50
16%
14%
0.40
12%
0.30
10%
8%
0.20
6%
4%
0.10
2%
PE (1Yr Forward)
Current:
16.2x
Price/Book Value
18.0x
5.0x
16.0x
4.5x
14.0x
4.0x
Current:
PBV hist
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
0.00
Dec-95
0%
3.8x
PBV Forward
3.5x
12.0x
3.0x
10.0x
2.5x
8.0x
2.0x
6.0x
ROE (Trailing)
Current:
43.97
90.00
1.0
80.00
0.9
70.00
0.8
Current:
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
0.0x
Dec-96
0.5x
0.0x
Dec-95
1.0x
2.0x
Dec-96
1.5x
4.0x
0.00
0.7
60.00
0.6
50.00
0.5
40.00
0.4
30.00
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
0.0
Dec-96
0.1
0.00
Dec-95
0.2
10.00
Dec-96
0.3
20.00
Summary
Berau Coal Energy
INDONESIA
Energy
12mth Forward PE
P/BV (Trailing)
ROE (Trailing)
2133.37
5.742479 SEDOL
B51F5K3
Latest
Min
Max
16.22x
14.49
16.22
3.79x
3.10
4.53
0.00
0.00
0.00
43.97
76.23
43.97
50.8%
0.45
0.51
24
Median
15.37
3.51
0.00
43.97
0.48
Average
15.36
3.60
0.00
58.86
0.48
2 S.D.+
16.84
4.65
0.00
91.67
0.53
2 S.D. 13.88
2.54
0.00
26.06
0.42
As Of:
Local Price:
EPS:
% to Min % to Max % to Med
-11%
0%
-5%
-18%
20%
-7%
0%
-12%
73%
0%
0%
-6%
7-Jan-11
550.00
33.91
% to Avg
-5%
-5%
34%
-6%
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
JPM Q-Profile
Indika Energy (INDONESIA / Energy)
As Of: 07-Jan-2011
Local Share Price
Current:
5200.00
6,000.00
12 Mth Forward EPS
Current:
371.31
450.00
400.00
5,000.00
350.00
4,000.00
300.00
250.00
3,000.00
200.00
2,000.00
150.00
100.00
1,000.00
50.00

35%
12Mth fwd EY
Current:
Indonesia BY
7%
Current:
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
0.00
Dec-95
0.00
43.01%
1.00
Proxy
0.80
30%
0.60
25%
0.40
20%
0.20
15%
0.00
10%
PE (1Yr Forward)
Current:
14.0x
18.0x
Current:
PBV hist
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Price/Book Value
6.0x
16.0x
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
-0.60
Dec-96
-0.40
0%
Dec-95
5%
Dec-96
-0.20
4.8x
PBV Forward
5.0x
14.0x
12.0x
4.0x
10.0x
3.0x
8.0x
6.0x
2.0x
4.0x
1.0x
2.0x
ROE (Trailing)
Current:
16.89
35.00
8.0
30.00
7.0
Current:
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
0.0x
Dec-95
0.0x
3.25
6.0
25.00
5.0
20.00
4.0
15.00
3.0
10.00
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
0.0
Dec-95
1.0
0.00
Dec-96
2.0
5.00
Summary
Indika Energy
INDONESIA
Energy
12mth Forward PE
P/BV (Trailing)
ROE (Trailing)
3009.41
7.008559 SEDOL
B2RHG43
Latest
Min
Max
14.00x
3.21
14.04
4.81x
1.09
4.81
3.25
0.00
7.23
10.04
31.40
16.89
43.0%
-0.51
0.54
Median
10.67
2.43
3.60
16.89
0.33
Average
10.00
2.58
2.92
18.38
0.26
2 S.D.+
16.41
4.39
7.25
29.88
0.82
2 S.D. 3.59
0.77
-1.41
6.88
-0.30
% to Min
-77%
-77%
-100%
-41%
-218%
As Of:
Local Price:
EPS:
% to Max % to Med
0%
-24%
0%
-50%
122%
11%
86%
0%
26%
-23%
7-Jan-11
5,200.00
371.31
% to Avg
-29%
-46%
-10%
9%
-40%
25
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
JPM Q-Profile
Indo Tambangraya Megah (INDONESIA / Energy)
As Of: 07-Jan-2011
8%
ROE (Trailing)
Current:
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-09
38.95%
35.51
90.00
9.7x
Current:
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
PBV Forward
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Current:
PBV hist
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
0.0x
Dec-06
0.0x
Dec-05
2.0x
Dec-04
4.0x
5.0x
Dec-03
10.0x
Dec-02
6.0x
Dec-01
8.0x
15.0x
Dec-00
20.0x
Dec-99
10.0x
Dec-98
25.0x
Dec-97
12.0x
Dec-96
Current:
Price/Book Value
Dec-98
13.1x
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Current:
30.0x
Dec-97
PE (1Yr Forward)
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
-1.50
Dec-01
0%
Dec-00
-1.00
Dec-99
10%
Dec-98
-0.50
Dec-97
0.00
20%
Dec-96
30%
Dec-98
0.50
Dec-97
1.00
40%
Dec-95
Dec-00
0.47
1.50
Proxy
50%
Dec-95
Current:
Dec-99
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Current:
Indonesia BY
Dec-96
12Mth fwd EY
Dec-96
60%
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
0.00
Dec-03
0.00
Dec-02
0.10
Dec-01
0.20
10,000.00
Dec-00
20,000.00
Dec-99
0.30
Dec-98
0.40
30,000.00
Dec-97
0.50
40,000.00
Dec-96
50,000.00
Dec-95
0.60
Dec-10
12 Mth Forward EPS
Dec-98
55500.00
Dec-97
Current:
60,000.00
Dec-96
Local Share Price
4.96
12.0
80.00
10.0
70.00
60.00
8.0
50.00
6.0
40.00
30.00
4.0
20.00
2.0
10.00
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
0.0
Dec-95
0.00
Summary
Indo Tambangraya Megah
INDONESIA
Energy
12mth Forward PE
P/BV (Trailing)
ROE (Trailing)
6969.81
8.343054 SEDOL
B29SK75
Latest
Min
Max
13.07x
2.08
24.00
9.71x
1.36
9.71
4.96
0.00
10.09
18.44
82.49
35.51
38.9%
-1.16
0.72
26
Median
11.48
5.16
4.96
42.59
0.39
Average
11.20
5.30
4.54
46.94
0.29
2 S.D.+
19.85
10.06
10.37
88.61
1.07
2 S.D. 2.56
0.53
-1.29
5.27
-0.49
% to Min
-84%
-86%
-100%
-48%
-397%
As Of:
Local Price:
EPS:
% to Max % to Med
84%
-12%
0%
-47%
103%
0%
132%
20%
85%
1%
7-Jan-11
55,500.00
0.47
% to Avg
-14%
-45%
-8%
32%
-25%
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
JPM Q-Profile
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (INDONESIA / Energy)
As Of: 07-Jan-2011
Local Share Price
Current:
23200.00
25,000.00
12 Mth Forward EPS
Current:
1558.96
2,000.00
1,500.00
20,000.00
1,000.00
15,000.00
500.00
10,000.00
0.00
5,000.00
-500.00
7%
PE (1Yr Forward)
Current:
14.9x
30.0x
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-01
Price/Book Value
46.37%
Current:
14.0x
PBV hist
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
-0.40
Dec-00
0%
Dec-99
-0.20
Dec-98
0.00
5%
Dec-01
0.20
10%
Dec-97
Current:
Dec-00
0.40
15%
Dec-99
0.60
20%
Dec-98
0.80
25%
Dec-96
Dec-97

1.00
Proxy
30%
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Current:
Indonesia BY
Dec-97
12Mth fwd EY
Dec-96
35%
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
-1,000.00
Dec-95
0.00
9.0x
PBV Forward
12.0x
25.0x
10.0x
20.0x
8.0x
6.0x
15.0x
4.0x
10.0x
2.0x
0.0x
5.0x
-2.0x
ROE (Trailing)
Current:
33.55
70.00
Current:
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
-4.0x
Dec-95
0.0x
2.32
10.0
9.0
60.00
8.0
50.00
7.0
6.0
40.00
5.0
30.00
4.0
3.0
20.00
2.0
10.00
1.0
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
Dec-95
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
0.0
Dec-95
0.00
Summary
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam
INDONESIA
Energy
12mth Forward PE
P/BV (Trailing)
ROE (Trailing)
5941.19
5.925715 SEDOL
6565127
Latest
Min
Max
14.88x
3.46
27.94
9.05x
0.79
12.09
2.32
0.00
9.45
8.31
66.04
33.55
46.4%
-0.30
0.76
Median
11.99
3.58
2.83
26.90
0.42
Average
11.52
4.30
3.24
29.95
0.36
2 S.D.+
21.23
10.34
7.68
58.36
0.82
2 S.D. 1.80
-1.74
-1.21
1.54
-0.09
% to Min
-77%
-91%
-100%
-75%
-164%
As Of:
Local Price:
EPS:
% to Max % to Med
88%
-19%
34%
-60%
307%
22%
97%
-20%
64%
-10%
7-Jan-11
23,200.00
1558.96
% to Avg
-23%
-52%
39%
-11%
-22%
27
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Adaro Energy: Summary of Financials

Income Statement
Rp in billions, year end Dec
FY09
FY10E
18,093
56.1%
5,253
102.0%
4,212
87.0%
23.3%
-568
2,925
208.8%
-1,602
54.8%
887
902.7%
31,986
27.74
553.5%
26,938
48.9%
10,845
106.5%
9,928
135.7%
36.9%
-848
8,578
193.3%
-4,119
48.0%
4,367
392.3%
31,986
136.54
392.3%
27,445
1.9%
7,788
-28.2%
6,541
NM
23.8%
-1,161
4,582
-46.6%
-2,172
47.4%
2,212
-49.3%
31,986
69.16
(49.3%)
Balance sheet
FY08
FY09
FY10E
Cash and cash equivalents

Accounts receivable
Inventories
Others
Current assets
2,416
2,332
305
1,708
7,857
11,275
2,882
250
1,429
15,837
6,194
2,937
255
1,456
10,842
0
16,394
33,720
0
17,207
42,465
3,200
22,728
45,240
6,121 6,570 EBITDA margin

3,946 4,694 Operating margin
343
408 Net margin
1,957 2,328
12,367 13,999
Sales per share growth
4,300 5,115 Sales growth
25,517 28,070 Net profit growth
50,273 54,861 EPS growth
Liabilities
Short-term loans
1,695
2,044
Payables
2,641
2,168
Others
2,386
3,784
Total current liabilities
6,722
7,996
Long-term debt
9,010 13,476
Other liabilities
3,961
3,482
Total Liabilities
19,693 24,953
Shareholders' equity
14,009 17,445
BVPS
438
545
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
2,449
2,732
4,769
9,950
12,899
4,388
27,236
17,910
560
Interest coverage (x)

3,139 1,448
3,351 3,975 Net debt to equity
5,848 6,938 Sales/assets
12,339 12,361 Assets/equity
10,259 9,312 ROE
5,381 6,384 ROCE
27,979 28,057
22,144 26,584
692
831
Revenues
% change Y/Y
EBITDA
% change Y/Y
EBIT
% change Y/Y
EBIT Margin
Net Interest
Earnings before tax
% change Y/Y
Tax
as % of EBT
Net income (reported)
% change Y/Y
Shares outstanding
EPS (reported)
% change Y/Y
LT investments
Net fixed assets
Total Assets
28
Cash flow statement

FY11E FY12E Rp in billions, year end Dec
FY08
36,879
34.4%
12,787
64.2%
11,051
69.0%
30.0%
-972
9,476
106.8%
-4,301
45.4%
5,118
131.4%
31,986
160.02
131.4%
43,866
18.9%
15,190
18.8%
13,178
19.2%
30.0%
-735
11,842
25.0%
-5,283
44.6%
6,487
26.7%
31,986
202.82
26.7%
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E FY12E
EBIT
Depr. & amortization
Change in working capital
Taxes
Cash flow from operations
4,212
1,041
-550
-1626
1,085
9,928
917
708
-4119
7,097
6,541
1,248
1,463
-2172
2,714
11,051 13,178
1,736 2,012
101
531
-4301 -5283
7,403 9,715
Capex
Disposal/(purchase)
Net Interest
Other
Free cash flow
-1,464
6
-568
-9,532
-373
-1,106
6
-848
-108
5,997
-6,144
-1,161
900
-3,430
-4,478
-972
878
2,925
-4,501
-735
917
5,214
Equity raised/(repaid)
Debt raised/(repaid)
Other
Dividends paid
Beginning cash
Ending cash
DPS
11,847
-244
0
832
2,416
0
0
4,816
-266
2,416
11,275
8
0
-173
-1,747
11,275
6,194
55
0
-1,949
-885
6,194
6,121
28
0
-2,639
-2,047
6,121
6,570
64
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E FY12E
29.0%
23.3%
4.9%
40.3%
36.9%
16.2%
28.4%
23.8%
8.1%
34.7%
30.0%
13.9%
34.6%
30.0%
14.8%
1.7%
56.1%
902.7%
553.5%
48.9%
48.9%
392.3%
392.3%
1.9%
1.9%
-49.3%
(49.3%)
34.4%
34.4%
131.4%
131.4%
18.9%
18.9%
26.7%
26.7%
9.24
12.79
6.71
13.15
20.67
51.3%
0.75
2.41
11.0%
24.6%
24.3%
0.71
2.43
27.8%
34.4%
51.1%
0.63
2.53
12.5%
19.8%
32.9%
0.77
2.27
25.6%
32.1%
15.8%
0.83
2.06
26.6%
36.2%
Ratio Analysis
FY11E FY12E Rp in billions, year end Dec
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Bumi Resources: Summary of Financials

Income Statement
$ in millions, year end Dec
FY08
FY09
3,378
49.1%
1,171
148.6%
1,102
171.8%
32.6%
-40
1,033
20.9%
-489
47.4%
372
-52.8%
19,404
0.02
(52.8%)
3,219
(4.7%)
712
-39.2%
638
NM
19.8%
-181
518
-49.9%
-234
45.2%
190
-48.8%
19,404
0.01
(48.8%)
Balance sheet
FY08

Accounts receivable
Inventories
Others
Current assets
LT investments
Net fixed assets
Total Assets
Revenues
% change Y/Y
EBITDA
% change Y/Y
EBIT
% change Y/Y
EBIT Margin
Net Interest
Earnings before tax
% change Y/Y
Tax
as % of EBT
% change Y/Y
Shares outstanding
EPS (reported)
% change Y/Y
FY10E
FY11E
Cash flow statement

FY12E $ in millions, year end Dec
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
1,102
68
499
-232
959
638
74
-588
-449
246
1,078
186
-396
-314
314
1,872
247
124
-651
843
2,177
284
-97
-801
1,452
Capex
Disposal/(purchase)
Net Interest
Other
Free cash flow
-839
-452
-40
-397
120
-807
-422
-181
-368
-561
-367
826
-533
-399
-53
-367
-23
-423
-506
476
-367
-28
-395
-569
1,086
Other
Dividends paid
Beginning cash
Ending cash
DPS
-0
1,047
-208
-81
144
172
0.01
368
1,242
-274
-97
172
60
0.01
510
398
-297
-57
60
988
0.00
0
-367
-362
-77
988
130
0.00
0
191
-409
-146
130
254
0.01
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
34.7%
32.6%
11.0%
22.1%
19.8%
5.9%
30.1%
25.6%
6.1%
33.8%
29.9%
7.8%
32.6%
28.9%
7.7%
49.1%
49.1%
-52.8%
(52.8%)
(4.7%)
(4.7%)
-48.8%
(48.8%)
24.4%
30.6%
35.6%
29.2%
42.2%
49.0%
89.0%
80.4%
20.4%
20.4%
19.3%
19.3%
29.21
3.94
2.37
5.01
6.23
Net debt to equity

Sales/assets
Assets/equity
ROE
ROCE
69.6%
0.84
3.37
32.5%
56.7%
226.5%
0.51
3.79
14.4%
16.9%
115.9%
0.50
4.31
14.1%
19.1%
118.0%
0.62
4.02
20.4%
30.1%
100.6%
0.66
3.78
20.7%
33.2%
4,203 6,264
30.6% 49.0%
1,263 2,119
77.4% 67.7%
1,078 1,872
68.9% 73.7%
25.6% 29.9%
-533
-423
827 1,482
59.7% 79.3%
-331
-593
40.0% 40.0%
258
488
35.6% 89.0%
20,374 21,344
0.01
0.02
29.2% 80.4%
7,542
20.4%
2,461
16.1%
2,177
16.3%
28.9%
-395
1,754
18.4%
-702
40.0%
582
19.3%
21,344
0.03
19.3%
EBIT
Taxes
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
Ratio Analysis
172
272
153
738
1,633
60
754
199
810
2,052
988
884
234
950
3,556
130
900
296
1,204
2,992
2,723
879
5,235
4,220
1,140
7,411
5,500
496
9,551
6,972
638
10,601
Liabilities
Short-term loans
445
515
Payables
865
1,084
Others
792
517
2,103
2,115
Long-term debt
837
3,105
Other liabilities
777
594
Total Liabilities
3,716
5,814
1,165
1,471
BVPS
0.06
0.08
676
1,175
606
2,457
3,342
697
6,496
2,182
0.11
608
1,431
768
2,808
3,043
883
6,734
2,593
0.12
254 EBITDA margin

1,013 Operating margin
334 Net margin
1,355
3,498
7,849 Sales growth
748 Net profit growth
12,095 EPS growth
704
1,619
865
3,188
3,139
994
7,321
3,029
0.14
29
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk: Summary of Financials

Income Statement
FY08
FY09
6,110
77.4%
1,484
110.5%
1,408
124.5%
23.0%
-51
1,136
153.2%
-597
52.6%
170
565.8%
35
4.87
565.8%
8,319
36.1%
3,112
109.6%
3,026
114.9%
36.4%
-21
2,931
158.1%
-1,292
44.1%
854
401.9%
35
24.46
401.9%
Balance sheet
FY08
FY09

Accounts receivable
Inventories
Others
Current assets
1,026
1,053
284
121
2,821
1,804
957
451
179
4,448
LT investments
Net fixed assets
Total Assets
348
6,970
370
12,381
Revenues
% change Y/Y
EBITDA
% change Y/Y
EBIT
% change Y/Y
EBIT Margin
Net Interest
Earnings before tax
% change Y/Y
Tax
as % of EBT
% change Y/Y
Shares outstanding
EPS (reported)
% change Y/Y
Liabilities
Short-term loans
274
2,820
Payables
651
837
Others
1,480
1,926
2,405
5,583
Long-term debt
Other liabilities
152
2,969
Total Liabilities
5,568
8,551
378
3,506
BVPS
11
100
30
Cash flow statement

FY10E FY11E FY12E Rp in billions, year end Dec
9,470 12,225 15,570 EBIT
13.8% 29.1% 27.4% Depr. & amortization
3,107 3,884 5,129 Change in working capital
-0.2% 25.0% 32.1% Taxes
2,655 3,321 4,455 Cash flow from operations
NM 25.1% 34.2%
28.0% 27.2% 28.6% Capex
-611
-460
-435 Disposal/(purchase)
1,957 2,605 3,765 Net Interest
-33.2% 33.1% 44.5% Other
-1,048 -1,199 -1,728 Free cash flow
53.5% 46.0% 45.9%
762 1,129 1,635 Equity raised/(repaid)
-10.8% 48.2% 44.9% Debt raised/(repaid)
35
35
35 Other
21.82 32.34 46.85 Dividends paid
(10.8%) 48.2% 44.9% Beginning cash
Ending cash
DPS
Ratio Analysis
FY10E FY11E FY12E Rp in billions, year end Dec
2,894
1,242
419
237
5,995
2,097
1,540
640
349
6,180
1,352 EBITDA margin

869 Net margin
519
6,678
1,817 2,345 2,987 Sales growth
660 1,280 1,916 Net profit growth
16,081 17,055 18,432 EPS growth
835
835
477
548
1,617 2,118
2,930 3,502
2,988 2,153
228
262
10,234 10,005
5,351 6,277
153
180
835
644
2,485
3,965
1,317
325
9,696
7,560
217
Net debt to equity

Sales/assets
Assets/equity
ROE
ROCE
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
1,408
76
-225
961
3,026
86
-830
2,359
2,655
453
-1499
259
3,321
563
-982
1,491
4,455
674
-1632
1,755
-224
-51
23
737
-159
-21
-718
2,200
-445
-611
-142
-186
-774
-460
-345
717
-801
-435
-420
954
-242
-24
533
1,026
-
-551
-105
-48
1,026
1,804
1
1,325
5,091
-104
-256
1,804
2,894
7
0
-835
-105
-228
2,894
2,097
7
0
-835
-105
-339
2,097
1,352
10
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
24.3%
23.0%
2.8%
37.4%
36.4%
10.3%
32.8%
28.0%
8.0%
31.8%
27.2%
9.2%
32.9%
28.6%
10.5%
77.4%
77.4%
565.8%
565.8%
36.1%
36.1%
401.9%
401.9%
13.8%
13.8%
-10.8%
(10.8%)
29.1%
29.1%
48.2%
48.2%
27.4%
27.4%
44.9%
44.9%
29.02
149.99
5.09
8.44
11.78
-288.4%
1.03
18.46
76.2%
294.7%
-1.2%
0.86
3.53
44.0%
86.7%
-5.1% -10.6% -15.6%

0.67
0.74
0.88
3.01
2.72
2.44
17.2% 19.4% 23.6%
34.3% 36.0% 47.0%
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Indika Energy: Summary of Financials

Income Statement
Cash flow statement

FY12E Rp in billions, year end Dec
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
2,314
(1.0%)
131
-37.1%
123
NM
5.3%
-143
1,188
247.3%
-103
8.7%
1,085
309.4%
5
208.32
309.4%
2,487
7.4%
1,149
775.0%
191
55.4%
7.7%
-214
897
-24.5%
-158
17.6%
726
-33.1%
5
139.36
(33.1%)
3,827
53.9%
252
-78.0%
52
NM
1.4%
-344
1,383
54.2%
-176
12.8%
1,206
66.2%
5
232.23
66.6%
4,419 4,657 EBIT

15.5%
5.4% Depr. & amortization
357
425 Change in working capital
41.5% 19.1% Taxes
103
93 Cash flow from operations
96.5%
NM
2.3%
2.0% Capex
-255
-263 Disposal/(purchase)
2,505 2,506 Net Interest
81.2%
0.0% Other
-214
-313 Free cash flow
8.6% 12.5%
2,284 2,186 Equity raised/(repaid)
89.4% -4.3% Debt raised/(repaid)
5
5 Other
439.80 421.00 Dividends paid
89.4% (4.3%) Beginning cash
Ending cash
DPS
Balance sheet
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E

Accounts receivable
Inventories
Others
Current assets
2,376
406
53
370
3,922
2,988
773
37
527
4,876
2,855
784
51
580
4,875
3,761
961
55
638
6,082
LT investments
Net fixed assets
Total Assets
2,550
97
8,710
3,305
1,189
11,684
3,351
1,905
13,321
Liabilities
Short-term loans
5
52
Payables
660
957
Others
115
374
781
1,382
Long-term debt
9
465
Other liabilities
17
157
Total Liabilities
3,497
6,339
5,214
5,332
BVPS
1,001
1,024
57
1,973
411
2,442
7
172
7,133
6,175
1,189
Revenues
% change Y/Y
EBITDA
% change Y/Y
EBIT
% change Y/Y
EBIT Margin
Net Interest
Earnings before tax
% change Y/Y
Tax
as % of EBT
% change Y/Y
Shares outstanding
EPS (reported)
% change Y/Y
Ratio Analysis
4,053 EBITDA margin

58 Net margin
702
6,646
3,421 3,498 Sales growth
2,787 4,055 Net profit growth
15,729 17,636 EPS growth
63
2,634
453
3,149
7
190
7,858
7,856
1,513
69
3,274
498
3,841
8
209
8,720
8,900
1,714
Net debt to equity

Sales/assets
Assets/equity
ROE
ROCE
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
123
8
-201
-144
-235
191
958
48
-141
130
52
200
-1,029
-176
-45
103
255
-521
-214
1,164
93
332
-543
-313
1,066
-43
-1,321
-143
-826
-278
-105
-1,831
-214
-691
25
-869
-106
-344
977
-915
-1,090
205
-255
1,521
74
-1,553
-149
-263
1,820
-488
2,316
-42
0
-125
873
1,918
24
-85
2,229
21
-437
2,332
3,393
84
0
-276
-50
-363
3,393
2,766
70
0
6
-55
-603
2,766
3,709
116
0
157
-60
-1,142
3,709
3,996
220
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
5.7%
5.3%
46.9%
46.2%
7.7%
29.2%
6.6%
1.4%
31.5%
8.1%
2.3%
51.7%
9.1%
2.0%
46.9%
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
309.4%
309.4%
7.4%
7.4%
-33.1%
(33.1%)
54.3%
53.9%
66.2%
66.6%
15.5%
15.5%
89.4%
89.4%
5.4%
5.4%
-4.3%
(4.3%)
0.92
5.37
0.73
1.40
1.62
-59.0%
0.34
1.67
31.4%
3.5%
-56.7%
0.24
2.19
13.8%
3.5%
-55.0%
0.31
2.16
21.0%
0.9%
-55.5%
0.30
2.00
32.6%
1.4%
-52.9%
0.28
1.98
26.1%
1.1%
31
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah: Summary of Financials

Income Statement
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
Cash flow statement

1,317
70.6%
385
142.2%
340
181.5%
25.8%
4
344
222.8%
-111
32.2%
235
321.1%
1,130
0.21
321.1%
1,508
14.5%
484
25.7%
436
28.2%
28.9%
2
438
27.2%
-121
27.6%
336
42.8%
1,130
0.30
42.8%
1,665
10.4%
470
-2.8%
419
NM
25.2%
9
427
-2.4%
-102
23.9%
276
-17.6%
1,130
0.24
(17.6%)
2,171
30.4%
684
45.5%
616
47.0%
28.4%
5
621
45.2%
-165
26.6%
447
61.7%
1,130
0.40
61.7%
2,682
23.6%
913
33.5%
841
36.6%
31.4%
3
843
35.9%
-249
29.5%
580
29.7%
1,130
0.51
29.7%
Balance sheet
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
Ratio Analysis

Accounts receivable
Inventories
Others
Current assets
222
132
36
109
498
429
144
65
36
673
531
159
55
40
785
830
210
72
52
1,164
LT investments
Net fixed assets
Total Assets
12
315
979
17
344
1,199
18
355
1,328
24
508
1,912
1,160 EBITDA margin

257 Operating margin
90 Net margin
64
1,571
29 Sales growth
540 Net profit growth
2,402 EPS growth
Liabilities
Short-term loans
6
15
Payables
155
144
Others
165
181
326
340
Long-term debt
5
40
Other liabilities
38
31
Total Liabilities
369
411
610
787
BVPS
0.54
0.70
17
159
200
376
44
34
454
874
0.77
22
208
260
490
223
44
757
1,155
1.02
27
257
322
605
275
55
935
1,467
1.30
Revenues
% change Y/Y
EBITDA
% change Y/Y
EBIT
% change Y/Y
EBIT Margin
Net Interest
Earnings before tax
% change Y/Y
Tax
as % of EBT
% change Y/Y
Shares outstanding
EPS (reported)
% change Y/Y
32
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
EBIT
Taxes
340
45
-35
-111
236
436
48
40
-121
401
419
51
24
-102
363
616
69
29
-165
536
841
72
33
-249
681
Capex
Disposal/(purchase)
Net Interest
Other
Free cash flow
-94
0
4
-8
141
-73
0
2
-13
328
-67
0
9
-2
296
-268
0
5
-6
268
-150
0
3
-6
530
Other
Dividends paid
Beginning cash
Ending cash
DPS
0
-81
-0
-88
258
222
0.08
0
44
-0
-151
222
429
0.13
0
6
-7
-201
429
531
0.18
0
183
19
-166
531
830
0.15
0
58
15
-268
830
1,160
0.24
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
29.2%
25.8%
17.8%
32.1%
28.9%
22.2%
28.2%
25.2%
16.6%
31.5%
28.4%
20.6%
34.1%
31.4%
21.6%
70.6%
70.6%
321.1%
321.1%
14.5%
14.5%
42.8%
42.8%
10.4%
10.4%
-17.6%
(17.6%)
30.4%
30.4%
61.7%
61.7%
23.6%
23.6%
29.7%
29.7%
-34.5%
1.50
1.60
44.0%
58.1%
-47.4%
1.39
1.61
48.0%
59.5%
-53.8%
1.32
1.57
33.3%
47.1%
-50.7%
1.34
1.55
44.1%
52.7%
-58.5%
1.24
1.57
44.2%
53.1%

Net debt to equity
Sales/assets
Assets/equity
ROE
ROCE
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam: Summary of Financials

Income Statement
Revenues
% change Y/Y
EBITDA
% change Y/Y
EBIT
% change Y/Y
EBIT Margin
Net Interest
Earnings before tax
% change Y/Y
Tax
as % of EBT
% change Y/Y
Shares outstanding
EPS (reported)
% change Y/Y
FY08
7,216
75.0%
2,568
165.0%
2,494
178.0%
34.6%
108
2,552
152.8%
-837
32.8%
1,708
135.2%
2,305
740.98
135.2%
FY09
FY10E
FY11E
8,948
8,750
24.0% (2.2%)
3,628
2,462
41.3% -32.2%
3,548
2,384
42.3%
NM
39.7% 27.2%
202
313
3,762
2,677
47.4% -28.9%
-1,033
-669
27.5% 25.0%
2,728
1,984
59.7% -27.3%
2,305
2,305
1,183.53 860.70
59.7% (27.3%)
13,726
56.9%
4,971
101.9%
4,857
103.7%
35.4%
158
4,483
67.5%
-1,121
25.0%
3,307
66.7%
2,305
1,434.92
66.7%
Balance sheet
FY08
FY09
FY10E
FY11E

Accounts receivable
Inventories
Others
Current assets
3,042
1,377
420
112
4,950
4,709
1,491
410
173
6,783
4,247
1,352
449
157
6,205
5,977
2,029
616
235
8,857
LT investments
Net fixed assets
Total Assets
454
384
6,107
521
372
8,079
890
1,307
8,846
4,892
1,869
16,105
Liabilities
Short-term loans
0
0
Payables
69
58
Others
1,284
1,323
1,353
1,381
Long-term debt
0
0
Other liabilities
676
912
Total Liabilities
2,029
2,293
3,998
5,701
BVPS
1,735
2,474
0
64
1,450
1,514
0
1,028
2,542
6,083
2,639
0
87
1,987
2,074
4,000
1,379
7,453
8,305
3,603
Cash flow statement

FY08
FY09
EBIT
Taxes
2,494
74
-442
-473
1,610
3,548
80
-139
-1033
2,736
2,384
78
249
-622
2,403
4,857
115
-361
-1084
3,582
5,939
150
-152
-1244
4,271
Capex
Disposal/(purchase)
Net Interest
Other
Free cash flow
-429
108
0
1,180
-218
202
0
2,518
-863
313
4
1,540
-677
158
3
2,905
-707
39
2
3,565
Other
Dividends paid
Beginning cash
Ending cash
DPS
0
0
0
-380
2,223
3,042
165
0
0
0
-1,007
3,042
4,709
437
0
0
-64
-1,609
4,709
4,247
698
0
4,000
-47
-1,170
4,247
5,977
508
0
0
-78
-1,951
5,977
6,558
847
Ratio Analysis
FY08
FY09
35.6%
34.6%
23.7%
40.6%
39.7%
30.5%
16,924
23.3%
6,089
22.5%
5,939
22.3%
35.1%
39
5,484
22.3%
-1,371
25.0%
3,927
18.7%
2,305
1,703.88
18.7%
6,558 EBITDA margin

732 Net margin
280
9,981
5,893 Sales growth
2,426 Net profit growth
18,835 EPS growth
0
104
2,361
2,465
4,000
1,636
8,101
10,259
4,451
Net debt to equity

Sales/assets
Assets/equity
ROE
ROCE
75.0%
75.0%
135.2%
135.2%
-
FY10E FY11E FY12E
FY10E FY11E FY12E

28.1%
27.2%
22.7%
36.2%
35.4%
24.1%
36.0%
35.1%
23.2%
24.0% (2.2%)
24.0% (2.2%)
59.7% -27.3%
59.7% (27.3%)
56.9%
56.9%
66.7%
66.7%
23.3%
23.3%
18.7%
18.7%
-76.1% -82.6%
1.43
1.26
1.53
1.93
51.2% 56.2%
74.7% 73.2%
-69.8% -23.8% -24.9%

1.03
1.10
0.97
2.19
2.04
2.10
33.7% 46.0% 42.3%
40.5% 52.8% 44.7%
33
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
Analyst Certification:
The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily
responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with
respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report
accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research
analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the
research analyst(s) in this report.
Important Disclosures
Lead or Co-manager: J.P. Morgan acted as lead or co-manager in a public offering of equity and/or debt securities for Bumi
Resources, Indika Energy, PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk within the past 12 months.
Client of the Firm: Bumi Resources is or was in the past 12 months a client of JPM; during the past 12 months, JPM provided to the
company investment banking services and non-securities-related services. Indika Energy is or was in the past 12 months a client of
JPM; during the past 12 months, JPM provided to the company investment banking services. PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk is or was in
the past 12 months a client of JPM; during the past 12 months, JPM provided to the company investment banking services.
Investment Banking (past 12 months): J.P. Morgan received, in the past 12 months, compensation for investment banking services
from Bumi Resources, Indika Energy, PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk.
Investment Banking (next 3 months): J.P. Morgan expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking
services in the next three months from Bumi Resources, Indika Energy, PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk.
Non-Investment Banking Compensation: An affiliate of JPMS has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or
services other than investment banking from Bumi Resources, Indika Energy.
Please note that an affiliate of PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia, J.P. Morgan plc (which conducts its UK investment banking
activities as J.P. Morgan Cazenove) (J.P. Morgan Cazenove), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services
Authority, acted for Vallar Plc (the Company) in connection with the Companys acquisition of 75% of PT Berau Coal Energy
Tbk and 25% of PT Bumi Resources Tbk, as announced on 16 November 2010.
Please note that an affiliate of PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia, J.P. Morgan plc (which conducts its UK investment banking
activities as J.P. Morgan Cazenove) (J.P. Morgan Cazenove), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services
Authority, acted for Vallar Plc (the Company) in connection with the Companys acquisition of 75% of PT Berau Coal Energy
Tbk and 25% of PT Bumi Resources Tbk, as announced on 16 November 2010.
Adaro Energy (ADRO.JK) Price Chart

Date
4,632
OW Rp2,600
OW Rp3,000
3,860
OW Rp2,400
3,088
Price(Rp)
UW Rp2,100
UW Rp1,700
2,316
1,544
772
0
Jul
08
Oct
08
Jan
09
Apr
09
Jul
09
Oct
09
Jan
10
Apr
10
Jul
10
Oct
10
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.
Initiated coverage Mar 16, 2010. This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst
may or may not have covered it over the entire period.
J.P. Morgan ratings: OW = Overweight, N = Neutral, UW = Underweight.
34
Rating
UW Rp2,000
Jan
11
Share Price Price Target

(Rp)
(Rp)
16-Mar-10
OW
1870
2400
16-Apr-10
OW
2225
3000
21-May-10 OW
1840
2600
02-Sep-10 UW
1870
1700
15-Oct-10
UW
2175
2100
02-Nov-10 UW
2125
2000

13 January 2011
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574
Bumi Resources (BUMI.JK) Price Chart

Date
14,904
OW Rp1,570
OW Rp2,900
OW Rp7,700
OW Rp10,400
12,420
OW Rp1,120
OW Rp3,000
OW Rp5,800
OW Rp8,000
9,936
UW Rp580
OW Rp960 OW Rp2,200
OW Rp3,400OW Rp8,300
OW Rp8,500
UW Rp620
OW OW
Rp3,500
Rp3,500
OW Rp3,400
N Rp3,200
OW Rp4,000
OW Rp3,300
Price(Rp) 7,452
4,968
2,484
0
Oct
06
Jul
07
Apr
08
Rating
N Rp2,100OW Rp3,750
OW Rp3,000
Jan
09
Oct
09
Jul
10
This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it
over the entire period.

(Rp)
(Rp)
08-Dec-06 OW
890
13-Feb-07
OW
1040
960
1120
04-Apr-07
OW
1310
1570
15-Jun-07
OW
1890
2200
09-Jul-07
OW
2775
3000
08-Aug-07 OW
2600
2900
11-Sep-07 OW
2925
3400
31-Oct-07
OW
4800
5800
30-Jan-08
OW
6600
7700
13-Mar-08
OW
6000
8300
08-Apr-08
OW
5700
8000
16-May-08 OW
7700
10400
01-Aug-08 OW
6150
8500
07-Jan-09
UW
770
620
17-Mar-09
UW
720
580
04-Jun-09
2175
2100
02-Oct-09
3075
3200
31-Oct-09
OW
2375
3500
27-Nov-09 OW
2350
3750
16-Dec-09 OW
2350
4000
07-Jan-10
OW
2700
3500
01-Mar-10
OW
2175
3000
16-Apr-10
OW
2450
3300
22-May-10 OW
2125
3400
Date
Share Price
(Rp)
Price Target
(Rp)
3825
5000
Indika Energy (INDY.JK) Price Chart

Rating
8,460
26-Nov-10 OW
7,050
OW Rp5,000
5,640
Price(Rp)
4,230
2,820
1,410
0
Jun
08
Sep
08
Dec
08
Mar
09
Jun
09
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Initiated coverage Nov 26, 2010. This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst
35

13 January 2011
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574
PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU.JK) Price Chart

950
Date
Rating
855
05-Oct-10 OW
760
Share Price
(Rp)
Price Target
(Rp)
475
530
665
OW Rp530
570
Price(Rp) 475
380
285
190
95
0
Aug
10
Aug
10
Sep
10
Oct
10
Nov
10
Dec
10
Jan
11
Initiated coverage Oct 05, 2010. This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG.JK) Price Chart
95,124
79,270
63,416
Price(Rp)
OW Rp47,000
OW Rp41,000
OW Rp36,000
OW Rp13,000
OW Rp12,500
OW Rp28,000
OW Rp30,000
OW Rp20,000
OW Rp33,900OW Rp40,000
OW Rp58,000
OW Rp32,000
OW Rp43,500
OW Rp45,000
47,562
31,708
15,854
0
Dec
07
Mar
08
Jun
08
Sep
08
Dec
08
Mar
09
Jun
09
Sep
09
Dec
09
Mar
10
Jun
10
Sep
10
Initiated coverage Apr 04, 2008. This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst
36
Date
Rating

(Rp)
(Rp)
04-Apr-08
N Rp54,200
Dec
10
OW
19000
27-May-08 OW
29900
41000
16-Jun-08
33800
47000
OW
36000
22-Oct-08
OW
10400
30000
19-Jan-09
OW
10800
12500
03-Mar-09
OW
9150
13000
13-May-09 OW
18650
20000
09-Jun-09
22900
28000
OW
24-Nov-09 OW
27700
32000
17-Dec-09 OW
31400
33900
16-Apr-10
43500
OW
39250
21-May-10 OW
34100
40000
07-Sep-10 OW
38250
45000
15-Oct-10
47500
58000
52200
54200
OW
12-Nov-10 N

13 January 2011
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA.JK) Price Chart
41,514
N Rp7,000
34,595
27,676
Price(Rp)
N Rp6,500
OW Rp12,000
OW Rp22,200
N Rp11,500
OW Rp18,500 OW Rp9,700
OW Rp19,300
OW Rp24,200
OW Rp26,000
OW Rp27,000
N Rp3,400
N Rp4,500N Rp9,000 OW Rp16,000 OW Rp9,300
OW Rp17,000
OW Rp22,500
OW Rp24,000
OW Rp22,000
20,757
13,838
6,919
0
Oct
06
Jul
07
Apr
08
Date
Rating

(Rp)
(Rp)
10-Jan-07
OW Rp23,000
OW Rp23,000
Jan
09
Oct
09
Jul
10
This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it
over the entire period.
3150
15-May-07 N
4375
3400
4500
21-Jun-07
7050
6500
09-Jul-07
6700
7000
31-Oct-07
9050
9000
30-Jan-08
11750
11500
13-Mar-08
12000
OW
10250
28-May-08 OW
13650
16000
12-Jun-08
OW
15000
18500
02-Jul-08
OW
16450
22200
11-Jan-09
OW
7950
9300
05-Feb-09
OW
7400
9700
09-Jun-09
OW
13350
17000
28-Jul-09
19300
OW
12800
22-Nov-09 OW
15900
22500
16-Dec-09 OW
17500
24200
02-Feb-10
OW
16700
23000
26-Mar-10
OW
17100
24000
27-Apr-10
26000
OW
18950
21-May-10 OW
16250
23000
25-Aug-10 OW
16350
22000
15-Oct-10
20400
27000
OW
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:

J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the
average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve
months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams)
coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of
the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] J.P. Morgan Cazenoves UK Small/Mid-Cap dedicated research
analysts use the same rating categories; however, each stocks expected total return is compared to the expected total return of the FTSE
All Share Index, not to those analysts coverage universe. A list of these analysts is available on request. The analyst or analysts teams
coverage universe is the sector and/or country shown on the cover of each publication. See below for the specific stocks in the certifying
analyst(s) coverage universe.
Coverage Universe: Stevanus Juanda: Adaro Energy (ADRO.JK), Bumi Resources (BUMI.JK), Indika Energy
(INDY.JK), Indofood (INDF.JK), Kalbe Farma (KLBF.JK), Medco Energi (MEDC.JK), PT Aneka Tambang Tbk
(ANTM.JK), PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU.JK), PT Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG.JK), PT International Nickel
Indonesia (INCO.JK), Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS.JK), Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA.JK), Unilever Indonesia
Tbk (UNVR.JK)
J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of December 31, 2010
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage

IB clients*
JPMS Equity Research Coverage
IB clients*
Overweight
(buy)
46%
53%
43%
71%
Neutral
(hold)
42%
50%
49%
63%
Underweight
(sell)
12%
38%
8%
59%
*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.

For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold
rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category.
37
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
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38
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574

13 January 2011
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JP Morgan - Indonesia Coal Mining 2011

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Asia Pacific Equity Research

Indonesia coal mining

(62-21) 5291 8574

JAKMINE index performance

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Thermal new (Newcastle)

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates.

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

The performance of Indonesia coal names during an environment of the rising

Without the multiple of BYAN of 33x in FY11E, which we deemed to be an outlier,

Div Yield (%)

Asia Pacific Equity Research

FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Asia Pacific Equity Research

P&L sensitivity metrics

Adaro is the second-largest coal company in Indonesia. In

Source: Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Sales volume assumption (47.0MM tons)

Price target and valuation analysis

Our price target is derived using the DCF method. From

Market risk premium:

EPS: J.P. Morgan vs. consensus

Our price target of Rp2,800 represents 17.5x FY11E P/E,

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Large earnings adjustments

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Neutral rating is most appropriate, in our view

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Table 12: ADRO - DCF valuation

Asia Pacific Equity Research

FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Asia Pacific Equity Research

P&L sensitivity metrics

Indika Energy is a diversified energy company with

Sales volume assumption (35.2MM tons)

Price target and valuation analysis

Our price target is derived using the combination of

Income segment chart (FY11E)

Source: Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Market risk premium:

EPS: J.P. Morgan vs. consensus

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Our price target of Rp6,300 represents 14.3x FY11E P/E,

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Table 13: INDY - New and original assumptions

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Table 15: INDY - SOTP valuation

Value per share

Holding Period Disc

Value per share

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Asia Pacific Equity Research

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah