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BinomialProbability

BinomialProbability
andtheNormalCurve
TopicIndex|Algebra2/TrigIndex|RegentsExamPrepCenter

Considerthesequestions:

Question1:
Findtheprobabilityofgettingexactly52headswhenflippingafaircoin100times.
Noproblem!Wecansolvethisproblemratherquicklywiththeassistanceofour
handygraphingcalculator.

Question2:
Findtheprobabilityofgettingatmost52headswhenflippingafaircoin100times.
Yuck!Evenwithourhandycalculatorthisproblemcanbeanightmareofcalculations
ifwecalculateandaddalloftheprobabilitiesof0heads,1head,2heads,...,50heads,
51heads,and52heads.

Let'sgetsomebackgroundinformation:
IntheBinomialProbabilitylesson,wesawthebinomialdistributionsfor2flipsand4flipsofafair
coin.StatisticianAbrahamdeMoivre(18thcentury)discoveredthatasthenumberofcoinflips
increased,theshapeofthebinomialdistributionapproachedaverysmoothcurve.Seethebinomial
distributionfor20flipsbelow,withasuperimposedcurve.Theverticalbarsrepresentthe
probabilitiesofobtainingeachofthepossible21outcomes(020heads).

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Thesuperimposedcurverepresentsanormaldistributioncurveapproximationforthisbinomial
distribution.Youcanseethatitisagoodfit.Thesituationissuchthatasthenumberoftosses
increases,thebetterthefittothenormalcurve.
Anormaldistributionisreallyacontinuousprobabilitydistribution.
Onthenormaldistributioncurve,theprobabilitythatanoutcomeis
greaterthandequalstheareaunderthenormalcurveboundedbydand
positiveinfinity.Theprobabilitythatanoutcomeislessthandequalsthe
areaunderthenormalcurveboundedbydandnegativeinfinity(asshaded
inthediagramattheright).
Binomialdistributionswherep=0.5(suchasthiscoinflippingexample)aresymmetric.Whenpis
notequalto0.5,thebinomialdistributionwillnotbesymmetric.Thecloserpisto0.5andthelarger
thenumberoftrials,n,themoresymmetricthedistributionbecomes.
Inabinomialdistributionwithntrials
andasuccessprobabilityofp:
Themean(expectedvalue)isnp.
Thevarianceis
.
Thestandarddeviation(standarderror)is
.

Whenthenumberofexpectedsuccessesandfailures
issufficientlylarge,anareaunderthenormalcurve
willbeagoodnumericalapproximationoftheexact
binomialcomputation.
RULE:If
,thenormalcurve
willbeagoodapproximationforthebinomial
distribution(usuallygoodtotwoorthreedecimalplaces).

Sohowdowegettheactualanswer?
Binomialdistributionsdealwithdiscretevariableswhicharemadeofwholeunitswithnovalues
betweenthem,suchascoinflipsthatareheadsortails,basketballtossesthatmakethehoopornot,or
machinepartsthataredefectiveornot.Normaldistributions,however,dealwithcontinuousvariables
whichareendlessinthenumberoftimesyoucandividetheirintervals,suchasgrosspay,heights,or
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cholesterollevels.Toensurethebestapproximationwhendealingwiththesetwovariabletypes,we
useacontinuitycorrectionfactor.

Continuitycorrection:
Addorsubtract0.5tothedesiredoutcometoincludethe
entirerectangleinthecalculations.
Inthediagramattheright,ifxisabinomialrandom
variable,n=4,p=0.5,andwewishtocomputethe
probabilityofx<1usingthenormalcurve,wewillmiss
thepinkarea.
Adjustment:

SolvingQuestion2usinganormalapproximation:
Findtheprobabilityofgettingatmost52headswhenflippingafaircoin100times.
Solution:Thefacts:n=100,p=0.5,q=1p=0.5,P(x<52)=?
1.Checktoseeif"n"islargeenoughtowarrantusinganormalapproximation.
Yes,nislargeenoughforthenormalapproximationtobeaccurate,sincenp=50>5
(samefornq).
2.Findthebinomialstandarddeviation.
Usetheformula:
.Thestandarddeviationforthisproblemis5.
3.StandardizethevaluesofxusingtheZscoreformula:

(Remembertousex=52.5forthecontinuitycorrection.)

4.GototheZscorecharttofindthefinalanswer:
Answer:P(x<52)=0.6915

Whendealingwithverylargesamples,itcanbecomeverytedioustocompute
certainprobabilities.Insuchcases,thenormaldistributioncanbeusedto
approximatetheprobabilitiesthatotherwisewouldhavebeenobtainedthrough
laboriouscomputations.

HowtouseyourTI
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BinomialProbability

83+/84+graphing
calculatorwith"At
Most"andAtLeast"
Probabilities.
Clickcalculator.

TopicIndex|Algebra2/TrigIndex|RegentsExamPrepCenter
CreatedbyDonnaRoberts
Copyright19982012http://regentsprep.org
OswegoCitySchoolDistrictRegentsExamPrepCenter

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