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2015 NDI 6WS – Big Data Disad

Strategy
This da is pretty cool. So it works like this: big data is used now, plan creates a legal precedent where big
data is protected by privacy rights, that means gov/private companies can’t use big data, that’s bad cause
impacts.
In the 1nc you should read one of the two uniqueness cards and then if you have to, blow it up in the
block. You also should read a link and an impact module.
This da should mesh well with advantage cps or counterplans that don’t deal with privacy
rights/surveillance
The internal link stuff might not have to be read, if the aff team presses you on it, it might be good to read
one or two

Neg

UQ

com dating profiles—or identify peo. incentive-centered design and public policy.lets). monitoring. microphone. but illustrative. But it is not the quantity of data that is revolutionary. Improving IT is proliferating the number of things we measure and record about people (more "points'). Sensing." Twenty years ago.” says Weatherhead University Professor Gary King. which together create reidentifiable networks of connections. and that current growth trends will lead to 18 billion by 2018 .org/ComputingNow/issues/2014/11/msp20140500 86. from the infrastructure of cities. American economist specializing in information. the decreasing costs of computing and networking are unleashing more powerful ways to mine data for patterns. “ There is a big data revolution. New ways of linking datasets have played a large role in generating new insights. The data flow so fast that the total accumulation of the past two years—a zettabyte—dwarfs the prior record of human civilization. safety and security monitoring devices for babies and those in assisted living. at a party with friends was a selective revelation. . sensors recording each appUance's energy and water use in the home.8 of which 9 billion will be Internet of Things (not computers.6 billion networked devices today. Among students. And creative approaches to visualizing data— humans are far better than computers at seeing patterns—frequently prove integral to the process of creating knowledge.com/2014/03/why-big-data-is-a-big-deal DATA NOW STREAM from daily life: from phones and credit cards and televisions and computers. there is a huge appetite for the new field. King and his graduate students came up with an algorithm within two hours that would do the same thing in 20 minutes—on a laptop: a simple example. the mathematics of data mining is a win for secret harvesters. “Can we afford privacy from surveillance?”. “The big data revolution is that now we can do something with the data. Think of fingerprints: a single line is insufficient to identify me by my fingerprint But provide about 15 points and I'm no longer anonymous.org/cms/Computer. 2014. Instead. including reidcntification —that is.pdf The phenomenon we call "big data" also favors revelation. not in the exponential growth of storage or even computational capacity. Big Data presence increasing now.plosively.1NC Use of big data is high now and applies across the spectrum of subjects Jonathan Shaw. bridges.coming effectively free. and home alarm systems.computer.ple in public places—and infer their SSNs. or tab. and federation as well as the development of inexpensive data mining tools to extract patterns. but no one else got to see your drunken face. digital fingerprints. or vomit. buses. But information about us forms a network of relationships. Jeffrey Mackie-Mason. with just a subset of public personal data (for instance. networked sensors are becoming ubiquitous. and photos or videos might be on the Internet before you wake up the next afternoon. King explains. smartphones.6 The number of points from which to construct reidcntifying digital fingerprints is growing ex. Alessandro Acquisti and his colleagues showed that. We (or at least some government agencies) once cheerfully thought that stripping names and SSNs in a dataset was enough to guarantee privacy. and recording are be. and sensor-equipped drawers and safes. improving IT is increasing the sensing and digitization of personal data. Simultaneously. Low-cost.org/Computer. Business Insider calculates that there are approximately 5. figured out that he would need a $2-million computer to analyze it. accelerometer. trains.” The revolution lies in improved statistical and computational methods. data aggregation. planes. 2014. But now your friends all have HD video cameras. Many of the tools now being developed can be used across disciplines as seemingly disparate as astronomy and medicine. getting drunk and acting foolish.one's pocket. with a smartphone containing a GPS. and factories. “Why ‘Big Data’ is a Big Deal”. breasts. and camera in every. and a sufficiently dense network creates unique identifiers . Managing Editor at Harvard Magazine. from Facebook) and cheap facial-recognition software. The doubling of computing power every 18 months (Moore’s Law) “is nothing compared to a big algorithm”—a set of rules that can be used to solve a problem a thousand times faster than conventional computational methods could. There were approximately 5 million public CCTV surveillance cameras in the UK as of July 2013. One colleague. For example. Although the mathematics of encryption is a win for secret keepers. smoke detectors. In short. they could reidentify anonymous Match. measuring. http://www. Friends might talk about it. from sensor-equipped buildings. Our private information will be sensed and transmitted via networked IT from health and fitness monitors. maybe dancing topless. http://harvardmagazine. faced with a mountain of data.

Until now.. http://iveybusinessjournal.2NC Flood All our internal links are uniqueness claims. Michael Chui also assisted in leading the research. adding considerable power to prediction. and society.Big Data gets used extensively in the squo. and we expect suppliers of Big Data technology and advanced analytic capabilities to have at least as much ongoing impact on productivity as suppliers of other kinds of technology. namely the ability to transform our lives. like other essential factors of production such as hard assets and human capital. The same preconditions that allowed previous waves of IT-enabled innovation to power productivity. Data will only increase in the squo.Data is certainly used now Manyika 12 (July-August 2012. stored. such as those that aggregate and analyse industry data. Other early adopters of Big Data are using data from sensors embedded in products from children’s toys to industrial goods to determine how these products are actually used in the real world. data pioneers are analyzing the health outcomes of pharmaceuticals when they were widely prescribed. ‘ now casting. compete. But we are now at an inflection point. and capture value. F orward-thinking leaders across sectors should begin aggressively to build their organisations’ Big Data capabilities. government. Similarly. All companies need to take Big Data and its potential to create value seriously if they want to compete. As the director of McKinsey Global Institute and a former leader within technology companies where he focused on innovation. “Why Big Data is The New Competitive Advantage” Ivey Business Journal. the torrent of data flooding our world has been a phenomenon that probably only excited a few data geeks. some retailers embracing big data see the potential to increase their operating margins by 60 per cent. consumer preferences and intent can be captured and analysed. the high frequency of data allows users to test theories in near real-time and to a level never before possible. growth. enhancing productivity and creating significant value for the world economy by reducing waste and increasing the quality of products and services. much of modern economic activity simply could not take place without them. the real-time and high-frequency nature of the data are also important. are in place for Big Data. . is becoming more extensively used. James Manyika works for McKinsey Global Institute. and. and mined for insights has become economically relevant to businesses. In healthcare. Indeed. the sheer volume of data generated. In addition to the sheer scale of Big Data. Many of these will be companies that sit in the middle of large information flows where data about products and services. and discovering benefits and risks that were not evident during necessarily more limited clinical trials.com/publication/why-big-data-is-the-new-competitive-advantage/ //HS) Data are now woven into every sector and function in the global economy . The history of previous trends in IT investment and innovation and its impact on competitiveness and productivity strongly suggest that Big Data can have a similar power. Such knowledge then informs the creation of new service offerings and the design of future products Big Data will help to create new growth opportunities and entirely new categories of companies . According to research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) and McKinsey & Company’s Business Technology Office. we found early examples of such use of data in every sector we examined. and strategy. technology innovations followed by the adoption of complementary management innovations.there is a data revolution that is being jumped on by everybody and anybody.that’s Mackie-Mason Big Data is critical to the modern economy. something which previously could only be done retrospectively. and consumers. For example. Chui is a partner of McKinsey Global Institute where he specializes in research on the impact of information tech and innovation on businesses. the econ. established competitors and new entrants alike will leverage data-driven strategies to innovate. The use of Big Data — large pools of data that can be brought together and analyzed to discern patterns and make better decisions — will become the basis of competition and growth for individual firms. buyers and suppliers. Big Data: A new competitive advantage The use of Big Data is becoming a crucial way for leading companies to outperform their peers.e. i. In most industries. that’s Shaw Today’s tech innovation and drop in prices means that data is more easily analyzed and collected than ever before plus devices are proliferating. immediately.’ the ability to estimate metrics such as consumer confidence. For example. a research contracting firm.

Retailers are able to optimize their stock based on predictions generated from social media data. Big Data is being used to streamline business practices Marr 13 (Nov.com/pulse/20131113065157-64875646-the-awesome-ways-big-data-is-used-today-to-changeour-world //HS) 2. activity levels. “The Awesome Ways Big Data is Used to Change Our World” Linkedin https://www. In Jawbone’s case. The other area where we benefit from big data analytics is finding love . Individuals use big data now. Bernard Marr is an author.new tech proves Marr 13 (Nov. as well as the measurement of company culture and staff engagement using big data tools. the company now collects 60 years worth of sleep data every night.linkedin. and our sleep patterns. The big objective. web search trends and weather forecasts. We can now benefit from the data generated from wearable devices such as smart watches or smart bracelets. This couldn’t be further from the truth. and leading business and data expert. WalMart can predict what products will sell. speaker. 13. Here. Eventually. speaker.online this is. One particular business process that is seeing a lot of big data analytics is supply chain or delivery route optimization. Telecom companies can now better predict customer churn . and car insurance companies understand how well their customers actually drive. Here. Bernard Marr is an author. 13. and leading business and data expert. etc. Some believe. there are some areas where big data is already making a real difference today. who is now able to very accurately predict when one of their customers will expect a baby. Take the Up band from Jawbone as an example: the armband collects data on our calorie consumption. speaker. Understanding and Targeting Customers This is one of the biggest and data is used to better understand customers and their most publicized areas of big data use today. the real value is in analyzing the collective data. and leading business and data expert. Understanding and Optimizing Business Processes Big data is also increasingly used to optimize business processes. browser logs as well as text analytics and sensor data to get a more complete picture of their customers. 13. Obama’s win after the 2012 presidential election campaign was due to his team’s superior ability to use big data analytics. HR business processes are also being improved using big data analytics. retailer Target.com/pulse/20131113065157-64875646-the-awesome-ways-big-data-is-used-today-to-changeour-world //HS) The term ‘Big Data’ is a massive buzzword at the moment and many say big data is all talk and no action. Companies are keen to expand their traditional data sets with social media data. You might remember the example of U.linkedin. in many cases. Analyzing such volumes of data will bring entirely new insights that it can feed back to individual users. While it gives individuals rich insights. 13. “The Awesome Ways Big Data is Used to Change Our World” Linkedin https://www. “The Awesome Ways Big Data is Used to Change Our World” Linkedin https://www. is to create predictive models. 1.retail and campaigns Marr 13 (Nov.linkedin. Most online dating sites apply big data tools and algorithms to find us the most appropriate matches. 13.com/pulse/20131113065157-64875646-the-awesome-ways-big-data-is-used-today-to-changeour-world //HS) 3. With this post. Personal Quantification and Performance Optimization Big data is not just for companies and governments but also for all of us individually. I want to show how big data is used today to add real value. Using big data. 13. big behaviors and preferences.S.Big Data is used in the squo. Even government election campaigns can be optimized using big data analytics. Bernard Marr is an author. every aspect of our lives will be affected by big data . I have categorized the application of big data into 10 areas where I see the most widespread use as well as the highest benefits [For those of you who would like to take a step back here and understand. what big data is. This includes the optimization of talent acquisition – Moneyball style. However. . in simple terms. geographic positioning and radio frequency identification sensors are used to track goods or delivery vehicles and optimize routes by integrating live traffic data. check out the posts in my Big Data Guru column].

“The Awesome Ways Big Data is Used to Change Our World” Linkedin https://www. and leading business and data expert. and leading business and data expert. Experiments to unlock the secrets of our universe – how it started and works . 13. Such computing powers can be leveraged to transform so many other areas of science and research. the team can intervene early and save fragile babies in an environment where every hour counts. speaker.Big Data already mitigates adverse health impacts Marr 13 (Nov. 13. Big data tools are also used to optimize energy grids using data from smart meters. Take. The CERN data center has 65. 7. speaker. Integrating data from medical records with social media analytics enables us to monitor flu outbreaks in real-time . simply by listening to what people are saying. By recording and analyzing every heart beat and breathing pattern of every baby.com/pulse/20131113065157-64875646-the-awesome-ways-big-data-is-used-today-to-changeour-world //HS) 4. and leading business and data expert. I am sure you are aware of the revelations that the National Security Agency (NSA) in the U.the aff can’t effectively solve their impacts without big data Marr 13 (Nov. Others use big data techniques to detect and prevent cyber attacks. Bernard Marr is an author. Bernard Marr is an author. “The Awesome Ways Big Data is Used to Change Our World” Linkedin https://www. the Swiss nuclear physics lab with its Large Hadron Collider. CERN. Police forces use big data tools to catch criminals and even predict criminal activity and credit card companies use big data use it to detect fraudulent transactions. What’s more. “The Awesome Ways Big Data is Used to Change Our World” Linkedin https://www. 13.S.com/pulse/20131113065157-64875646-the-awesome-ways-big-data-is-used-today-to-changeour-world //HS) .linkedin. The Toyota Prius is fitted with cameras. That way. the unit was able to develop algorithms that can now predict infections 24 hours before any physical symptoms appear. For example. 13. The clinical trials of the future won’t be limited by small sample sizes but could potentially include everyone! Big data techniques are already being used to monitor babies in a specialist premature and sick baby unit.com/pulse/20131113065157-64875646-the-awesome-ways-big-data-is-used-today-to-changeour-world //HS) 8. 13. Big data is applied heavily in improving security and enabling law enforcement. Big Data catalyzes important science and technological innovations Marr 13 (Nov. 13. We can even use big data tools to optimize the performance of computers and data warehouses. the world’s largest and most powerful particle accelerator.linkedin. i.linkedin. big data tools are used to operate Google’s self-driving car.e. Just think of what happens when all the individual data from smart watches and wearable devices can be used to apply it to millions of people and their various diseases. Big Data is used to prevent cyber terror attacks. Financial Trading Utilizes Big Data now Marr 13 (Nov.generate huge amounts of data.000 processors to analyze its 30 petabytes of data.turns case. uses big data analytics to foil terrorist plots (and maybe spy on us). speaker. Bernard Marr is an author. 13.com/pulse/20131113065157-64875646-the-awesome-ways-big-data-is-used-today-to-changeour-world //HS) 6. it uses the computing powers of thousands of computers distributed across 150 data centers worldwide to analyze the data. “Feeling rubbish today . Improving Healthcare and Public Health The computing power of big data analytics enables us to decode entire DNA strings in minutes and will allow us to find new cures and better understand and predict disease patterns.linkedin. However. GPS as well as powerful computers and sensors to safely drive on the road without the intervention of human beings. for example.in bed with a cold”. Optimizing Machine and Device Performance Big data analytics help machines and devices become smarter and more autonomous. Bernard Marr is an author. and leading business and data expert. speaker. 13. big data analytics allow us to monitor and predict the developments of epidemics and disease outbreaks . Improving Science and Research Science and research is currently being transformed by the new possibilities big data brings. Improving Security and Law Enforcement. “The Awesome Ways Big Data is Used to Change Our World” Linkedin https://www.

Today. For me. buy and sell decisions in split seconds. .10. big data algorithms are used to make trading decisions. HighFrequency Trading (HFT) is an area where big data finds a lot of use today. Financial Trading My final category of big data application comes from financial trading . Of course there are so many other applications of big data and there will be many new categories as the tools become more widespread. Here. the majority of equity trading now takes place via data algorithms that increasingly take into account signals from social media networks and news websites to make. the 10 categories I have outlined here represent the areas in which big data is applied the most.

Links .

“Are we under attack?” or “Do we have a breach of compliance standard C because of action A?” These are not really new.. For example. “Top Ten Big Data Security and Privacy Challenges” http://www. like. However.isaca. allows the health care provider to timely repair the damage created and to prevent further misuse. which call for careful protection of that same data. the records stored may be extremely sensitive and have to be compliant with HIPAA or regional /local regulations. However.Generic Government agencies and industries utilize big data Rajan 12 (November 2012.g. potentially saving billions to the tax . data mining expert with Fujitisa.time security analytics . although the use cases may differ. the health industry largely benefits from big data technologies.org/groups/professional-english/bigdata/groupdocuments/big_data_top_ten_v1. “Who is accessing which data from which resource at what time”.time the anomalous retrieval of personal information. intentional or unintentional.payer. less false positives) in that regard. distributed computing.pdf //HS) Most industries and government (agencies) will benefit from real . at the same time. . Sreeranga is a computer security and reliability. becoming more accurate with the payment of claims and reducing the fraud r elated to claims. but the difference is that we have more data at our disposal to make faster and better decisions (e. Detecting in real . There are use cases which are common. new use cases can be defined or we can redefine existing use cases in lieu of big data .

traditional exchanges competing for trades with traditional exchanges) have created so. By building a big-data architecture.time surveillance can thus be enabled through exceptionally fast 10 open-source analytic tools such as complex event processing (CEP). SAP’s HANA) can be used to store data feeds and events of interest. where he has extensive experience with technology consulting in compliance and trade surveillance. an information technology consulting company.. where split-second execution decisions are made by high-performance computers.Sox/Dual Use Big Data is the Key to future markets and business regulations Bhushan 14 (October 2014. This can help them uncover previously inaccessible “pearls” in today’s ever-expanding ocean of data. CEP technologies like Apache Spark. which becomes the platform for making logical business decisions (see figure below). there are emerging technologies that can help these companies better manage and leverage ever-bigger data pools. plus the explosion of trading venues and the exponential growth of structured and unstructured data. We believe that capital markets firms require a radically new and holistic surveillance approach. Pritisesh Bhushan is a senior manager of consulting with Cognizant. How has this impacted trade surveillance and compliance teams? The rise of algorithmic trading. are challenging regulatory and compliance teams to rethink their surveillance techniques. These tools can enable trading firms to end data triage and retain useful historical information.” Simultaneously. 9 For today’s capital markets firms.called “dark pools of liquidity.cognizant. A highly scalable in-memory data grid (e. . many organizations facing big-data challenges are counting on new open-source technologies such as NoSQL (not only SQL) and data stores such as Apache Hadoop. 2 Traders at capital market firms have been at the forefront of these advancements — pushing the envelope along the way. Big data analytics involves collecting.com/InsightsWhitepapers/Trade-Surveillance-with-Big-Data-codex1096. This paper highlights some of the key issues faced by regulators and compliance teams . We will also describe how new “big data” solutions can help manage them. and hence cannot be applied to big data sets.g.cognizant. the number of trades has increased tenfold in the last decade . IT organizations can keep both structured and unstructured data in the same repository. Relational database techniques have proven to be inadequate for processing large quantities of data . Twitter Different Asset Class & All Relevant Venues Traders Dat a Intelligence Alerts Compliance Dashboard BI Reports Users Regulators Risk Managers. from 37 million trades in NYSE listed issues in February 2004 to 358 million in February 2014. big data sets can reach multiple petabytes (one petabyte is one quadrillion bits of data). Fortunately. Pritisesh Bhushan is a senior manager of consulting with Cognizant. Cassandra and Accumulo. A Big Data Analytics Reference Architecture Front Office Consolidated Order Book Prop Orders Client Orders Market Dat a Real-Time Market Data Reference Dat a Securities Data Corporate Actions Client Dat a Employee Data Unstructured Dat a Macroeconomic News Phone Calls E-mails Corporate News Instant Msg. and process substantial bits and bytes within acceptable timeframes. Shark and Mesos put big data to good use by analyzing it in real time. Data Platform Several Petabytes of Data (Real-Time Query & Updates) Real-Time Analytic Engine Compliance Team Executive Board Sales Reps & Traders Quality Metrics Historical Market Data Historical Action Data Near-Term & Real-Time Actions cognizant 20-20 insights 4 To keep processing times tolerable.pdf //HS) The explosive growth of data over the last few years is taxing the IT infrastructure of many capital markets firms. Modern trading regulations require analysis of Big Data Bhushan 14 (October 2014. http://www. “Trade Surveillance with Big Data” Cognizant. Those that depend on individual alerts can no longer meet most firms’ requirements. automated and algorithmic trading has become more sophisticated — now enabling individuals and institutions to engage in high-frequency trading (HFT). Real. http://www. classifying and analyzing huge volumes of data to derive useful information. Today’s fragmented electronic market venues (the result of non. along with other incidents. The figure on the previous page depicts a representative big-data architecture appropriate for modern-day trade surveillance. 1 As a result.pdf //HS) Electronic trading has come a long way since the NASDAQ’s debut in 1971.com/InsightsWhitepapers/Trade-Surveillance-with-Big-Data-codex1096. “Trade Surveillance with Big Data” Cognizant. where he has extensive experience with technology consulting in compliance and trade surveillance. Meaningful events can also be recognized and flagged in real time. an information technology consulting company.

They employ techniques such as Complex Event Processing (CEP). emails . . phone call logs . and predictive analytics to perform market sentiment analysis.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/White%20Papers/Changing-face-trade-surveillance-role-analytics-03151. Trade surveillance is experiencing increased regulatory scrutiny and complexities due to the prevalence of multiple communication platforms. bank statements) and consolidating this structured and unstructured data into a usable database that will allow advanced pattern-matching analytics to spot any anomalous behavior. but will also become technically more equipped to leverage it.Big Data is improving trade surveillance Kumar 15 (2015. anomalous trading behavior detection.tcs. firms will not only have a better business case to adopt it. and advanced trading analytics. These include the lack of enhanced tools and techniques for visualization and successful deployment by regulators and infrastructure entities. making it difficult for regulators to perform market oversight functions. This is done by ingesting enormous volumes of various types of data originating from different channels (such as social media messages. business rule -based text mining. Capital market entities are also increasingly using Big Data f or enhanced business intelligence gathering. blogs.pdf //HS) Big Data is playing a key role in improving the effectiveness of surveillance . Sunil Kumar is a senior business consultant with Tata Consultancy Service’s consulting group where he has a long history of working on trade surveillance and IT consulting. Big Data technology will play a more important role in monitoring market participants’ trading activity both at participants’ and regulators’ ends. there are still several challenges to the widespread adoption of Big Data in capital markets surveillance. “The Changing Face of Trade Surveillance and the Role of Analytics” Global Consulting Practice http://www. machine learning. However. and gaps in the skillsets (especially data scientists) needed to administer Big Data analytics solutions etc . As capital market-specific usage of Big Data become more widespread .

what are our conventions for company names – Inc. 2013. and other technologies." It crosses department lines (both IT and business users must take responsibility). Admittedly. ETL. The Committee of Sponsoring Organizations (COSO) has developed a control framework that offers a comprehensive set of guidelines to create and implement internal controls. SOX mandates strict data storage requirements and equally stringent retention policies and procedures . So maybe reason #1 wasn't enough to convince you that come budget time. new data. It's also a complex process that requires laying out common definitions (what is a customer. “How Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) Impacts Data Centers” http://www. Decision-makers need to be equipped with facts in order to plan strategically and stay ahead of the competition – and facts are entirely based on having correct data. Alex Carroll is the co-owner of Lifeline Data Centers. for this purpose. The Control Objectives for Information and Related Technology (COBIT) framework. data quality should be the foundation of all of these other initiatives. it mandates companies to maintain tight controls over their financial disclosures . Dwight DeVera is the senior vice president of Arcplan. consistent. 10. or no Inc. there is significant value to be extracted from your company's growing vault of data. So here are 3 reasons why you should devote more of your IT budget to data quality: 1) Because good data quality sets the stage for sound business decisions. this offers the optimal benchmark. Trusting the data means being able to trust the decisions that are based on the data. mobile BI. Admittedly. 2) Because you have to. Though not mandatory. the implications of SOX for data centers go much beyond that . SOX requires that organizations maintain accurate information and prove it in regular audits by independent agents. and worse. Although SOX does not give any specific size or methodology for data storage or policies.com/data-center/sarbanes-oxley-act-sox-impacts-data-centers/ //HS) Regulatory compliance has a big say in how businesses design and develop their systems . "Regardless of big data. and then keeping things tidy through ongoing data monitoring. along with regular audits aimed at identifying and remediating potential risks. timely information coupled with the necessary analysis. accurate. performing an initial data cleanse.SOX Might want to use a generic link in the 1nc and read this in the block SOX requires data compliance which is key to quality big data DeVera 12 (Aug. Compliance requirements for SOX force extensive big data storage Carroll 13 (Nov. What about the fact that poor data quality may be leaving you out of compliance with the law? Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) mainly affects public companies. There he does extensive work managing data centers and has years of experience in IT infrastructure. and ultimately. The hype around big data has driven many companies to hoard massive amounts of structured and unstructured information in the hope of unearthing useful insight that will help them gain competitive advantage . However. then you can move on to a strategy that incorporates additional sources of big data. http://www. and processes that have multiple levels of responsibility often suffer from the "everyone and no one is responsible" conundrum . These controls assume the form of regulating and tracking the flow of financial data. or cloud. poor data will cause a company to be out of compliance and can result in fines. Though it’s not as "sexy" as big data.arcplan. 2012. probably the biggest challenge in BI is data quality. Sensible business decisions should be based on accurate. achieving data quality is tough. But ensuring that your data is timely. lawsuits. but those that may undergo a future merger. How Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) Impacts Data Centers On the face of it. old data. Seen from this perspective.lifelinedatacenters. and. “Invest in Good Data Before Big Data” Arcplan. Clean up the data you have in place. Gartner analyst Bill Hostmann says. A major compliance requirement for many businesses is the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX). a company specializing in Business Intelligence. the focus of SOX is to prevent financial frauds. – for example). there are many guidelines data centers need to follow: The Public Committee Accounting Overseas Board (PCAOB) oversees and guides SOX auditors and sets standards that specify the elements required for successful compliance. however it is data quality – not necessarily quantity – that is your company's biggest asset. that's the goal of the entire exercise if you see this first reason as the most important. and complete means users will trust the data. acquisition or IPO should plan to comply . 26. the .com/en/blog/2012/08/invest-in-good-data-before-big-data/#more //HS) Big data is without a doubt 1 of the top 5 BI trends of 2012. little data. you should put a little extra in the data quality column.

is a United States federal law enacted on 30 July 2002. Storing all data that flowed through the company proved to be an unsuccessful way to manage company records and comply with increasing regulations. SOX also binds publically traded companies and accounting or audit firms to retain audit documents for a minimum of seven years after the completion of an audit. SOX compliant data centers also need to have strong security measures in place. Specific internal security controls need to be identified that protect this data.aspx //HS) Today. Data centers need to adopt solutions such as a write-once. to facilitate their client’s compliance with the provisions of SOX.dbta. user account management. or even alter.mandated in the law Vormetric no date (No date. Here again. Companies that plan and strive for long-term sustained compliance will ultimately increase efficiency. But what does this mean in terms of compliance requirements to protect data for public companies? Any financial information needs to be safeguarded. 2009. . Detail significant changes in internal controls. which sets standards for all US public company boards. encryption. “Sarbanes-Oxley: 7 Years of Shaping Compliance and Technology” Database: Trends and Applications. Apart from this. Data protection requirements in both SOX Act sections 302 and 404 are most concerned with the accuracy and content of required financial reports . which allows easy retrieval at anytime but no modifications. The primary sections of the SOX act that concern protecting data are sections 302 and 404. and effective risk management. management and public accounting firms .handiwork of Information Systems Audit and Control Association (ISACA).S. resulting in a complete transformation of their data storage processes and a switch to more efficient and secure methods. in the wake of SOX passing 7 years ago. auditing must take place. and also have provisions in place for retrieval of data quickly. as well as report any fraud involving internal employees. This hasn’t always been the case. companies. and increase the independence of their external auditors. including access and authentication systems. Patrick Eitenbichler is the worldwide director of product marketing at HP.com/compliance/sarbanes-oxley //HS) The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX). on request. the methodology of how to do so is left to the companies. COBIT addresses 34 IT processes. and its integrity assured . Acquisition and Implementation. read-many (WORM) approach to data. and assessing this posture every fiscal year in an internal control report. Through this alignment. Sarbanes-Oxley Act section 302 expands this with compliance requirements to: List all deficiencies in internal controls and information. and report on. and Monitoring. and other network security deployments. offers specific guidance for IT controls. Public accounting firms that prepare or issue yearly audits must attest to. Vormetric is a company that creates data security products. Sarbanes-Oxley Act section 404 has two major points: Management is accountable for establishing and maintaining internal controls and procedures that enable accurate financial reporting. companies need to understand how to avoid unnecessary costs and make the most out of the IT investments by using data management systems that not only meet compliance needs but provide a competitive advantage. SOX demands data collection Eitenbichler 9 (Oct. 13. Delivery and Support. were left struggling to determine which types of data needed to be archived in order to comply with the new regulations. or factors that could have a negative impact on internal controls. In an effort to comply with SOX. SOX violations can be costly. Leading companies are using their compliance efforts to strengthen corporate governance. authentic and reliable records in a timely fashion. companies have a high-level of concern regarding data management and compliance . In addition. Complying with the act requires that companies produce. In today’s stormy economic climate. “Sarbanes Oxley Act and Compliance Requirements for Protecting Data-at-Rest” http://www. expand internal accountability. Companies today are under close scrutiny and pressure to comply with SOX. improve business and IT alignment and reduce associated IT costs.vormetric. besides constant monitoring and audits. grouped in four domains of Planning and Organization. there is a promise of “stiff penalties” for companies that knowingly destroy. The act imposes a fine of up to $10 million and 20 years in prison for violators. increase oversight into their corporate practices. this yearly assessment by management. U.com/Editorial/Trends-and-Applications/SarbanesOxley-7-Years-of-Shaping-Compliance-and-Technology-56608. most companies adopted a “store everything” approach—leading to increased storage costs and unmanaged records. records to cover their tracks or thwart investigations SOX requires data collection. companies can begin to move toward true IT governance. and this security posture re-assessed every year – including any changes or deficiencies as a result of changing conditions. http://www.

protected by European law and enshrined in Article 8 of the the welfare of individual consumers. how closer dialogue between regulators and experts on the rules and policies in data protection. the need for a definition of consumer harm in the enforcement of competition rules. are seeking to exploit the potential of big data. Data protection is a fundamental right. Personal information has become a form of currency to pay for so-called ‘free’ online services and is a valuable intangible asset for an increasing number of companies doing business in the EU .co/magazine/2014/03/26/privacy-and-competitiveness-in-the-age-of-big-data/ //HS) The collection and control of massive amounts of personal data are a source of market power for the biggest players in the global market for internet services . mergers. in markets where powerful players may refuse access to personal information and may apply confusing privacy policies. “FISA Rulings Put Tech Biz Between Rock and Hard Place.org/news/a/fisa-rulings-put-tech-biz-between-rock-and-hard-place-revelations-continue //HS) The Washington Post reports on how the increased public awareness of the NSA tracking programs also draws attention to consumer data tracking .aff creates the same situation in the US EU Reporter 14 (Mar. banking to energy. the marketing of so-called ‘free’ on-line services and the legitimacy of data processing are explored. “When I go to The Washington Post to learn about gov data tracking. the report points out there are differences between government data tracking and consumer data tracking: The private industry is subject to market pressures. On Twitter. 2013 Jedidiah Bracy is the editor of Privacy Perspectives and Privacy Tech and writes in the fields of data protection and privacy law. This will help to enforce competition and consumer rules more effectively and also stimulate the market for privacy-enhancing services . Smarter interaction across these partially overlapping policy areas will support growth and innovation and minimise the potential harm to consumers. A new Allstate/National JournalHeartland Monitor poll reveals that “most Americans exhibit a healthy amount of skepticism and resignation about data collection and surveillance and show varying degrees of trust in institutions to responsibly use their personal information. including a workshop in Brussels on 2 June 2014. he notes: The need for a fuller understanding of the massive growth in services that are marketed as free but in effect require payment in the form of the personal information of their customers. said the European Data Protection Supervisor (EDPS) today. In particular. journalist Dan Sinker wrote. The EDPS is pleased to be facilitating discussions between regulators and experts in these fields. To this end. EU Reporter is News organization focusing on the European Union. This requires closer interaction between different regulators.” In his preliminary Opinion on privacy and competitiveness in the age of big data: The interplay between data protection. Revelations Continue” IAPP https://privacyassociation. EDPS Peter Hustinx said: “The evolution of big data has exposed gaps in EU competition. “Privacy and Competitiveness in the Age of Big Data” EUReporter. published today. competition law and consumer protection.” The poll was conducted days before the NSA disclosures ****The EU’s tough privacy laws are hampering development and innovation with big data. 14. 26. competition and consumer protection could help promote consumer choice. . 2014. which includes vast volumes of personal data. consumer protection and data protection policies that do not seem to have kept up with this development . the EDPS will facilitate discussions among experts and practitioners from the EU and the US. http://www. there is currently little dialogue between policymakers and experts in these fields. diversity of services which safeguard privacy and greater control for consumers over their personal information. Background Privacy and data protection are fundamental rights in the EU. It is essential that synergies in the enforcement of rules controlling anti-competitive practices.affirming privacy rights sparks concern for consumer privacy Bracy 13 (Jun.” However.Block Link Buffer Status quo skepticism would be magnified in the world of the plan. and. However.eureporter. the EDPS notes that the EU rules in these policy areas have much in common: each aims to promote growth and innovation and to promote Sectors of the economy ranging from transport to health. The EDPS preliminary Opinion examines some of the convergences and tensions in these areas of EU law against the evolution of big data. while the government is not. I’m hit by *fifty* commercial data trackers.

currently crystallized in ‘‘Big Data. and is thus implicated in fresh but fluid configurations. the European Parliament and the Council on proposals for new legislation and a wide range of other issues that have an impact on data protection. such as collection. The Charter also contains an explicit right to the protection of personal data (Article 8). Processing of personal data: According to Article 2(b) of Regulation (EC) No 45/2001. the European Convention of Human Rights (Article 8) and the European Charter of Fundamental Rights (Article 7). the ethical turn becomes more urgent as a mode of critique.Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union. dates of birth. retrieval.sagepub. the capacities of Big Data (including metadata) intensify surveillance by expanding interconnected datasets and analytical tools. Important trends persist – the control motif. especially predictive analytics . video footage. Three. One of the duties of the EDPS is to advise the European Commission. qualitative change in surveillance practices is also perceptible. organisation. storage. alignment or combination. and critique”. Existing dynamics of influence. Modernity’s predilection for certain definitions of privacy betrays the subjects of surveillance who. Furthermore. See the glossary on the EDPS website. email addresses and telephone numbers. disembodied image of both computing and legal practices. Examples include names. Snowden. and user-involvement – but the future-orientation increasingly severs surveillance from history and memory and the quest for pattern-discovery is used to justify unprecedented access to data. adaptation or alteration. Two. . risk-management. while Big Data appears to be about size. photographs. accenting consequences. so far from conforming to the abstract. Privacy: the right of an individual to be left alone and in control of information about his or herself. Other details such as IP addresses and communications content – related to or provided by end-users of communications services – are also considered as personal data. public-private synergies.’’ Big Data intensifies certain surveillance trends associated with information technology and networks. disclosure by transmission. 2014. whether or not by automatic means. faith in technology. Personal information or data: Any information relating to an identified or identifiable natural (living) person. EU institutions and bodies processing personal data presenting specific risks to the rights and freedoms of individuals (‘data subjects’) are subject to prior-checking by the EDPS. consequences. processing of personal data refers to “any operation or set of operations which is performed upon personal data. dissemination or otherwise making available. starting in 2013. blocking. Professor of Sociology. the rules for data protection in the EU – as well as the duties of the EDPS – are set out in Regulation (EC) No 45/2001.full. use. along with the ambiguous complicity of internet companies and the international controversies that followed provide a perfect segue into contemporary conundrums of surveillance and Big Data. http://bds. recording. are engaged and embodied users-inrelation whose activities both fuel and foreclose surveillance. and control increase their speed and scope through new techniques. This is considered in three main ways: One. Surveillance and big data are symbiotic David Lyon. and Big Data: Capacities. erasure or destruction”. “Surveillance. Attention has shifted from late C20th information technologies and networks to a C21st focus on data.com/content/spbds/1/2/2053951714541861. consultation. The right to privacy or private life is enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (Article 12). More specifically.pdf The Snowden revelations about National Security Agency surveillance.

I.Link(4 block) .

“Three Ways DOD Technology May Light the Way to Actionable Big Data in the Private Sector” Jobber Tech Talk. “Actionable intelligence” is a high-stakes deliverable in the police and military arenas. But it is not that difficult to make the leap from “suspect” to “customer” to see how understanding future behavior in multiple dimensions will help product makers and marketers see and spot opportunities. RSS feeds and documents— and quickly make visual sense of them in both space and time with geospatial displays. mobile data. cellular data or satellite—using a wide variety of devices and media. This potential is already being leveraged in consumer contexts. Critical incident response management systems developed for the DoD will set the global baseline for private sector applications where anybody from large-scale event producers to experiential marketers find they can gain a competitive edge from the ability to seamlessly and securely report. speeding the time from a state of chaos to a state of control and setting the stage for investigations that lead to justice as pictures. The public safety crisis solution of today sets the stage for the sophisticated. marketing and sales resources against sophisticated competitors. they’re high enough to justify pinpointing where resources are most needed. Team members can capture. While the stakes aren’t as high as they are in comparison to the global counterterrorism theater . behavior patterns and actual geographic markets from what was previously a pile of disconnected and disorganized data sources has huge potential . rather than threats. Here are three ways that military initiatives will show the private sector how to get more out of Big Data programs . Today’s field command technology must provide these vital personnel with relevant data while en route and at the scene. the urgency of harnessing massive amounts of data—in different formats and from wildly different sources—to model and pinpoint terrorist and criminal activity across the globe. they leverage massive amounts of high-quality. where is it happening. new applications and best practices are emerging that will result in gains far beyond their military and intelligence community origins. spreadsheets. and why? To gain this view. By accounting for . analysts and field operators scramble to assess damage.com/three-ways-dodtechnology-may-light-the-way-to-actionable-big-data-in-the-private-sector-jay-jesse/ //HS) Defense sector programs and research—from the Internet itself to applications like Apple’s Siri—often manifest in paradigm-changing innovation. 24. data CT programs translate into valuable programs for the private sector Jesse 15 (Mar. Mobile Command Makes the 21st Century’s Ultimate “Street Team” An incident such as a bombing throws an urban area into pandemonium as public safety commanders. viewing the information they need on the move and uploading scene information back to command control— all securely shared via Wi-Fi. draw links and make connections between demographic groups. relay and organize event data with sophistication never before seen. distribution. In the Big Data arena. From this arena. where and why consumer enterprises must marshal their production. The expanding real-time operational picture they create together drives faster. Defense sector vendors have led the way in enabling analysts to rapidly perform complex searches across any data source—structured and unstructured databases. better decision making. real-time event logistics and marketing mobile apps of tomorrow. actionable information for applications such as proactive policing of urban trouble spots (civilian) or using collection and analysis to find and neutralize makers of IEDs (military). just to name a few. 2015. help survivors and search for clues about the perpetrators . Enterprise Search Finds Better Needles in Bigger Haystacks From finding opportunities in sales data that helps craft better strategy to loss prevention initiatives. reducing inefficiency and waste and optimizing limited resources. videos and other evidence from the scene flood into the hands of analysts. a company specializing in Big Data. This is where DoD leads the way. hotspot maps and timelines. enabling decision makers to deliver the greatest operational impact.Gov data=priv. Jay Jesse is the CEO of Intelligent Software solutions. Big Data is undergoing rapid evolution and delivering more exciting results in both the private and defense sectors. quickly associating all incoming media in a master analysis engine. military applications are high stakes : for example. Being able to spot trends. Threat Analysis Becomes Opportunity Analysis Public safety and antiterrorism agencies need clear and succinct pictures of the crime and security environment : What is happening. The defense sector can speed gains in the area of data acquisition and enterprise search —the gateway enablers to the fruits of big data. http://www. Especially when we consider the importance of visualization and location in determining how. collect.jobbertechtalk. store and retrieve operational intel . synthesized.

What was more remarkable is that although we applied the nudges only to a small number of traders . financial bubbles happen. This is exactly how otherwise intelligent people all became convinced that Pets. The system “learns” as the user refines their searches to better target their data domain. and they wanted to know what they were doing wrong. and oft cited author of computer science writings. These are just three areas where defense sector technology gains translated into benefits for the private sector . variety and velocity. I’ll explore more of this landscape in the future. Alex Pentland is a computer science pioneer. everyone is trading ideas -but they are the same ideas over and over. Problem solved. Designing idea flows can also help solve the tragedy of the commons. Increasing engagement is not a magic bullet. the traders work in an echo chamber. individual eToro investors.com was the stock of the century.volume. we have found that we can manage the flow of ideas between people by providing small incentives. Inevitably. or nudges. cities and governments that work better than the ones we have today. in which a few people behave in such a way that everyone suffers. It began with counterterrorism experts looking for a particular piece of equipment involved in bomb-making.” establishing a data processing ecosystem that can process. we equip business analysts and leaders to “shrink the haystack. The reason was simple: customer service was on another floor . enable search and allow users to interact with the data in fruitful ways. When management saw the diagram we produced depicting this broken flow of information. In fact. increasing engagement without increasing exploration can cause problems . Defense sector solution providers then developed customized search and discovery systems that empowered analysts to thin the haystack in search of the valuable data needles they sought . we were able to increase the profitability of all social traders by more than 6 percent.7 million small-time. constantly improving search effectiveness. the advertising department of a German bank had experienced serious problems launching successful new product campaigns. He created the MIT Media lab and has been called by Forbes one of the “7 most powerful data scientists in the world. to individuals. The data integration and enterprise search achievements of defense sector vendors are paving the way for more fruitful Big Data results across the world. the entire network remained in the healthy wisdom-of-the-crowd region . MIT Professor. still others can encourage people mired in groupthink to explore outside their current contacts. The end result is better and precise decisionmaking through superior insight by revealing threats and opportunities that had previously been invisible in a mass of data. Sure. For instance. By measuring idea flow. In an experiment with 2. we found that while groups within the organization were exchanging lots of e-mails. when postdoctoral student Yaniv Altshuler and I measured information flow within the eToro social network of financial traders . normalizing and staging data. As a result. rather than being overwhelmed and in the dark. As a result. When we studied the problem with sociometric ID badges. NLP (natural language processing)-driven semantic enrichment represents a further refining and enhancement of the search experience. Fortunately. This configuration caused huge problems. allowing users to constantly tune and refine smaller subsets of data for key factors. For instance. the advertising department would end up designing ad campaigns that customer service was unable to support. we found that at a certain point people become so interconnected that the flow of ideas is dominated by feedback loops . DoD vendors contending with massive amounts of data have led the way in fashioning connector architecture.” “The Data-Driven Society” ebsco host //HS) USING BIG DATA to diagnose problems and predict successes is one thing . setting the stage for deeper analytics. but has equal power for financial analysts trying to isolate a particular kind of transaction and yield profitable insight for their companies. almost no one talked to the employees in customer service. it is usually possible to find simple changes that improve productivity and creative output . And when feedback loops dominate within a group of traders. What is even more exciting is that we can use big data to design organizations. The first stage of enabling these gains is to pull all information into a common environment so that it can be pushed through an analysis pipeline. yet the . we "tuned" the network by giving traders discount coupons that encouraged them to explore the ideas of a more diverse set of other traders . and compartmentalizing it into usable subsets. Some incentives can nudge isolated people to engage more with others. The potential is easiest to see within corporations. Big Data is key to future efficiency of government and corporations Pentland 13 (October. Search and NLP are the one-two punch that fuses what the analyst knows with what he or she doesn’t know. they immediately realized they should move customer service to the same floor as the rest of the groups.

Yet graduate student Ankur Mani and I have shown that promoting increased engagement between people can minimize these situations. . for example. rewarding them rather than the offender for improved behavior. and as a result.we have found that this social-pressure-based approach is up to four times as efficient as traditional methods . Some 4. which is conceptually the same as the social-pressure approach to solving tragedies of the commons. for example. or exercise. This scheme. DARPA offered a $40.with initiatives to encourage healthy behavior. or eat sensibly have higher health care costs. This approach is expensive and rarely works. My research group took a different tack. In 2009. and almost all took the simplest approach -. The usual solution is to find the offenders and offer incentives or levy penalties designed to get them to behave better.S.000 teams signed up for the contest. Another example is when tax collection is too centralized: local authorities have little incentive to ensure that everyone pays taxes. or to prompt people to save energy -.000 prize for the team that could most quickly find 10 red balloons placed across the continental U. We won the contest by locating all 10 balloons in only nine hours.cost to any one person is so small there is little motivation to fix the problem. The idea was to show how social media and the Internet could enable emergency mobilization across the U. The key is to provide small cash incentives to those who have the most interaction with the offenders. encouraged people to use their social networks as much as possible. An excellent example can be found in the health insurance industry.in emergencies.offering a reward to anyone who reported seeing a balloon. the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency designed an experiment to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Internet. or any time a special. driving up the price of health insurance for everyone. This same approach can be used for social mobilization -. We split the reward money among those who used their social networks to recruit a person who later saw a balloon and those who saw a balloon themselves. People who fail to take medicine they need. coordinated effort is needed to achieve some common goal. In realworld situations -.S. say. tax cheating becomes common.

Distinct characteristics between things (sorta I guess in this context it’s the difference based on their data statistics or something of that sort. we have used “off. and when policy changes might upset these relationships. economic differences researchers are consumers of machine.learning techniques to improve the efficiency of treatment effects studies when a research has either a large number of potentially confounding variables. An interesting question may be whether these relationships are stable when there are changes in the environment. .risk scores to summarize individual heterogeneity in a parsimonious way. Predictive modeling provides a natural way to achieve this stratification. and Mahoney 2012. being charged sales tax) and an outcome variable (adult earnings. 2012.dimensional statistic that summarizes a large amount of information about the entities being studied. and the analyst may or may not use prior theory as to which predictors are relevant. This suggests that one key issue in applying predictive modeling techniques. Einav.ested in understanding consumer borrowing behavior and how lenders should set loan prices and credit limits for different segments of borrowers as stratified by their default risk.fault propensities or likely health expenditures of individual consumers. http://web. health utilization.learning models.bycase basis. where the goal is to study a particular bivariate relationship—often. Chernozhukov. a causal one—holding “all else equal. In particular.shelf” credit and health. but not always. Jenkins. although the particular choice of predictive model was made by statisticians whose predictive scores derived from credit bureau records that were used as data. Einav.learning techniques can provide a useful way to obtain a one. 2013). Levin.of. This conceptual difference raises the question of whether big data techniques common in statistics will turn out to be useful in economic research . In these examples. if insurers begin to manage utilization or charge higher copayments. One application that already has been explored (Belloni et al. A related point is that predictive scores can be interesting objects to study in and of themselves. and whether prices in a market accurately adjust for the likely cost of different individuals to insurers that underwrite them. in Einav. and Levin (2012) we were inter. Recent empirical work that looks at consumer choice of insurance or health plans (Bundorf. In contrast.All Data Key Preserving the collection of all big data is key to effectiveness Einav and Levin 2014 (Liran Einav is a professor of economics at Stanford and a writer for the National Bureau of Economics. Another potential use of predictive modeling is to incorporate het. more research needed) The studies described in the prior section make use of big data . purchasing). Finkelstein et al. Many. whether riskier individuals systematically choose more generous insurance coverage.pdf //HS) **Heterogeneity. and Levin 2012. the object being studied is the relationship between a particular treatment (having a better teacher. getting health insurance. The focus is not on how a single variable affects a given outcome measure.risk scores to account for the de. or alternatively. a large number of potential instruments. The scores provide a useful way of assessing. 2013) has used predictive health. and Hansen 2012) is to use machine. “The Data Revolution and Economic Analysis” National Bureau of Economics. the prior relationships between demographics and past utilization and current utilization may not hold. We think the answer is likely to be affirmative.erogeneity into econometric models and analyses. but to use penalized regressions either to identify an optimal set of controls. which will need to be assessed on a case. it is common to associate individuals with a “risk type” that summarizes their probability of accident of loss. if not most. Einav. but on how the outcome varies with a large number of potential predictors . health.sample predicted relationships are valid. in theoretical models of insurance markets.stanford. Jonathan Levin is Professor of economics at Stanford and a writer for the National Bureau of Economics.” where the “all else equal” part is often implemented by controlling for other predictive variables. In our own research on credit and insurance markets (Bundorf.dimensional prediction of future health care utilization. it is easy 18 Einav and Levin to imagine future applications where economists will be interested in characterizing the heterogeneity of individuals or products or firms in order to analyze in decisions or treatment effects. or an optimal set of instruments given a large potential number. for instance. Belloni. studies in empirical micro. For example.economics have this structure. but the conceptual approaches and statistical methods are familiar ones.the.edu/~jdlevin/Papers/BigData. Levin. For instance. but not the producers of them. will be to understand the limits in terms of how far out. machine. Finkelstein et al. In such cases. Similarly. and Mahoney 2012. For example. Here the goal is still to estimate a particular bivariate relationship. the predictive modeling approaches described in section III are inherently multivariate. just as a consumer’s credit score summarizes a rich unstructured history of borrowing and repayments into a scalar summary of default risk. However. Jenkins.risk scores provide a mapping from an individual’s demographics and past health care utilization into a one.

This scheme. yet the cost to any one person is so small there is little motivation to fix the problem. This same approach can be used for social mobilization -. As a result. to individuals. say. In 2009. In realworld situations -. and they wanted to know what they were doing wrong. when postdoctoral student Yaniv Altshuler and I measured information flow within the eToro social network of financial traders . Sure. the entire network remained in the healthy wisdom-of-the-crowd region . Some incentives can nudge isolated people to engage more with others.000 prize for the team that could most quickly find 10 red balloons placed across the continental U. He created the MIT Media lab and has been called by Forbes one of the “7 most powerful data scientists in the world.with initiatives to encourage healthy behavior.S. for example. or any time a special. we have found that we can manage the flow of ideas between people by providing small incentives. This is exactly how otherwise intelligent people all became convinced that Pets. And when feedback loops dominate within a group of traders. In fact. MIT Professor. DARPA offered a $40. for example. everyone is trading ideas -but they are the same ideas over and over. For instance. we found that while groups within the organization were exchanging lots of e-mails. Inevitably. The key is to provide small cash incentives to those who have the most interaction with the offenders.” “The Data-Driven Society” ebsco host //HS) USING BIG DATA to diagnose problems and predict successes is one thing . An excellent example can be found in the health insurance industry.000 teams signed up for the contest. Increasing engagement is not a magic bullet. or eat sensibly have higher health care costs. What is even more exciting is that we can use big data to design organizations. it is usually possible to find simple changes that improve productivity and creative output . the advertising department of a German bank had experienced serious problems launching successful new product campaigns. which is conceptually the same as the social-pressure approach to this social-pressure-based . we "tuned" the network by giving traders discount coupons that encouraged them to explore the ideas of a more diverse set of other traders . almost no one talked to the employees in customer service. and almost all took the simplest approach -. Alex Pentland is a computer science pioneer.offering a reward to anyone who reported seeing a balloon. The potential is easiest to see within corporations.in emergencies. increasing engagement without increasing exploration can cause problems . coordinated effort is needed to achieve some common goal. rewarding them rather than the offender for improved behavior. and oft cited author of computer science writings. Problem solved. Designing idea flows can also help solve the tragedy of the commons. This configuration caused huge problems.Internal link extra Big Data solve national crises and the tragedy of the commons Pentland 13 (October. we were able to increase the profitability of all social traders by more than 6 percent. The usual solution is to find the offenders and offer incentives or levy penalties designed to get them to behave better. the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency designed an experiment to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Internet. When we studied the problem with sociometric ID badges.7 million small-time. Fortunately. For instance. By measuring idea flow. they immediately realized they should move customer service to the same floor as the rest of the groups. As a result. People who fail to take medicine they need. Some 4. driving up the price of health insurance for everyone. We split the reward money among those who used their social networks to recruit a person who later saw a balloon and those who saw a balloon themselves. still others can encourage people mired in groupthink to explore outside their current contacts.S. the traders work in an echo chamber. individual eToro investors. The reason was simple: customer service was on another floor . the advertising department would end up designing ad campaigns that customer service was unable to support. What was more remarkable is that although we applied the nudges only to a small number of traders .we have found that approach is up to four times as efficient as traditional methods . or nudges. cities and governments that work better than the ones we have today. When management saw the diagram we produced depicting this broken flow of information. in which a few people behave in such a way that everyone suffers. Another example is when tax collection is too centralized: local authorities have little incentive to ensure that everyone pays taxes. In an experiment with 2. The idea was to show how social media and the Internet could enable emergency mobilization across the U. or exercise. This approach is expensive and rarely works. My research group took a different tack. we found that at a certain point people become so interconnected that the flow of ideas is dominated by feedback loops .com was the stock of the century. and as a result. tax cheating becomes common. or to prompt people to save energy -. financial bubbles happen. Yet graduate student Ankur Mani and I have shown that promoting increased engagement between people can minimize these situations.

solving tragedies of the commons, encouraged people to use their social networks as much as
possible. We won the contest by locating all 10 balloons in only nine hours.

A2: Aff ILink Turn
Even though big data raises privacy concerns- the best way to solve them is through
more data- it’s a “sword and shield”
Armerding 14 (Dec. 8, 2014. Taylor Armerding is a journalist who focuses on technology news and issues. “The 5 worst Big Data
privacy risks (and how to guard against them)” CSO Online http://www.csoonline.com/article/2855641/big-data-security/the-5-worst-big-dataprivacy-risks-and-how-to-guard-against-them.html //HS)

The collection and manipulation of Big Data, as its proponents have been saying for several years now,
can result in real-world benefits: Advertisements focused on what you actually want to buy; smart cars that can call for an ambulance
if you’re in an accident; wearable or implantable devices that can monitor your health and notify your doctor if something is going wrong. But,
it can also lead to big privacy problems. By now it is glaringly obvious that when people generate thousands of
data points every day – where they go, who they communicate with, what they read and write, what they buy, what they eat, what they
watch, how much they exercise, how much they sleep and more – they are vulnerable to exposure in ways unimaginable a
generation ago. [ Securing big data off to slow start ] MORE ON CSO: 6 products that will protect your privacy It is just as obvious
that such detailed information, in the hands of marketers, financial institutions, employers and
government, can affect everything from relationships to getting a job, qualifying for a loan or even getting
on a plane. And so far, while there have been multiple expressions of concern from privacy advocates and
government, there has been little to update privacy protections in the online , always connected world. It has
been almost three years since the Obama administration published what it termed a Consumer Privacy Bill of Rights (CPBR), in February 2012.
That document declared that, “the consumer privacy data framework in the U.S. is, in fact, strong … (but it) lacks two elements: a clear statement
of basic privacy principles that apply to the commercial world, and a sustained commitment of all stakeholders to address consumer data privacy
issues as they arise from advances in technologies and business models.” And, as Susan Grant, director of consumer privacy at the Consumer
Federation of America (CFA), puts it, the CPBR is, “not a bill. It has never been a piece of legislation. We need to have something offered, to talk
about – at least somewhere to start.” Meanwhile,

organizations like the CFA and Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC), and
individual advocates like Rebecca Herold, CEO of The Privacy Professor, have enumerated multiple ways that Big
Data analytics can invade the personal privacy of individuals. They include: 1. Discrimination According
to EPIC, in comments last April to the U.S. Office of Science and Technology Policy, “ The use of predictive analytics by the
public and private sector … can now be used by the government and companies to make determinations
about our ability to fly, to obtain a job, a clearance, or a credit card. The use of our associations in
predictive analytics to make decisions that have a negative impact on individuals directly inhibits
freedom of association.” Herold, in a post on SecureWorld, noted that while overt discrimination has been illegal for decades, Big
Data analytics can make it essentially “automated,” and therefore more difficult to detect or prove . In an
interview, Herold said current discrimination law is, “vague, narrowly defined, and from the applications of it I’ve seen, depends upon very
explicit and obvious evidence. “Big

Data analytics provides the ability for discriminatory decisions to be
made without the need for that explicit and obvious evidence,” she said. That can affect everything from
employment to promotions to fair housing and more. Edward McNicholas, global co-leader of the Privacy, Data Security, and
Information Law Practice at Sidley Austin LLP, said he thinks some of the potential risks of Big Data are overstated, but believes, “ the most
significant risk is that it is used to conceal discrimination based on illicit criteria, and to justify the
disparate impact of decisions on vulnerable populations.” 2. An embarrassment of breaches By now,
after catastrophic data breaches at multiple retailers like Target and Home Depot, restaurant chains like P.F. Chang’s,
online marketplaces like eBay, government agencies, universities, online media corporations like AOL and the
recent hack of Sony that not only put unreleased movies on the web but exposed the personal information of thousands of
employees, public awareness about credit card fraud and identity theft is probably at an all-time high . But
in addition to that, there are numerous reports of Big Data analytics being used to expose personal details,
such as beginning to market products to a pregnant woman before she had told others in her family. The
same can be true of things like sexual orientation or an illness like cancer . 3. Goodbye anonymity Herold
argues that without rules for anonymized data files , it is possible that combining data sets, “without first
determining if any other data items should be removed prior to combining to protect anonymity, it is
possible individuals could be re-identified.” She adds that if data masking is not done effectively, “big data

analysis could easily reveal the actual individuals who data has been masked .” 4. Government
exemptions According to EPIC, “Americans are in more government databases than ever,” including that of
the FBI, which collects Personally Identifiable Information (PII) including name, any aliases, race, sex, date and place of
birth, Social Security number, passport and driver’s license numbers, address, telephone numbers, photographs, fingerprints, financial information
like bank accounts, employment and business information and more. Yet, “incredibly, the

agency has exempted itself from
Privacy Act (of 1974) requirements that the FBI maintain only, ‘accurate, relevant, timely and
complete’ personal records,” along with other safeguards of that information required by the Privacy Act, EPIC said. 5. Your
data gets brokered Numerous companies collect and sell, “consumer profiles that are not clearly
protected under current legal frameworks,” EPIC said. There is also little or no accountability or even
guarantees that the information is accurate. “The data files used for big data analysis can often contain
inaccurate data about individuals, use data models that are incorrect as they relate to particular
individuals, or simply be flawed algorithms,” Herold said. *** Those are not the only risks, and there is no
way to eliminate them. But there are ways to limit them. One, according to Joseph Jerome, policy counsel at the
Future of Privacy Forum (FPF), is to use Big Data analytics for good – to expose problems. “In many respects, Big Data is
helping us make better, fairer decisions,” he said, noting that an FPF report with the Anti-Defamation League showed that, “ Big Data can
be a powerful tool to empower users and to fight discrimination . It can be used as a sword or a shield.
More data can be used to show where something is being done in a discriminatory way . Traditionally, one
of the biggest problems in uncovering discrimination is a lack of data,” he said.

Impact Modules

such as the Nest home thermometer or mass customized shoes. • More-targeted marketing that injects customer feedback into product design. Even the advertising industry. https://www. Together with related advances in material sciences. data will become even easier to collect. “Big Data’s Economic Impact” Committee for Economic Development. It estimated the social surplus from these services at 120 billion euros. and nanotechnology. Note that s ome of these benefits do not affect GDP or personal income as we measure them. As with any resource. storing. Erik Brynjolfsson of MIT found that companies that adopt data-driven decision making achieve 5 to 6 percent higher productivity and output growth than their peers. We can keep a record of every plant’s history.000 Big Data jobs. and improved foreign trade. The need to understand and act on improved data is likely to increase worker productivity and pay. store. Of this. transmitting. Thanks to continued technological improvements. • Optimizing business processes. including sprayings and rainfall.5 million managers and analysts who hold traditional jobs but are capable of integrating Big Data into their decision making. increased energy efficiency.org/blog/entry/big-datas-economicimpact //HS) Big Data is beginning to have a significant impact on our knowledge of the world. and • Faster innovation through a shorter research and development cycle. • Better organizational management. $1. information technology. return on equity. transmit. They do. A report from McKinsey Global Institute estimates that Big Data could generate an additional $3 trillion in value every year in just seven industries . and market value. 2014. analyzing and acting upon data will make it easier to gather more information and to turn it into actionable knowledge of how systems work. and crop plantings has always existed. The report concluded that implementation of these policies could boost annual income within the G20 by between $700 billion and $950 billion . The report also estimated that over half of this value would go to customers in forms such as fewer traffic jams. . 3. Big Data is best understood as an untapped resource that technology finally allows us to exploit. computer engineering and other applied fields. But McKinsey estimates that there is a shortage of between 140. President of Kennedy Reasearch llc and senior fellow at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. data on weather. equipment can identify every plant as either crop or weed and selectively apply herbicide to just the weeds. another McKinsey study concluded that free Internet services underwritten by Internet advertising delivered significant benefits to Internet users. Data analysis has been called “the sexiest job of the 21st century.ced. even after controlling for other investments and the use of information technology. imply a better quality of life.3 trillion would benefit the United States.000 workers with advanced degrees in statistics. A study by the Direct Marketers Association found that better use of data made marketing more efficient both by allowing companies to avoid sending solicitations to individuals who are unlikely to buy their product and by matching customers with offers that better meet their individual needs and interests. This is important because increases in human knowledge have always played a large role in increasing economic activity and living standards. The Omidyar Network recently released a study of the impact of Open Data policies on government. The impact affects more than consumers. Big data also reduced barriers to entry by making it easier for small companies to get useful market data. The benefits include reduced corruption. Perhaps more important is the shortage of 1. better workplace conditions. and analyze. delivers large benefits. 80 percent of which went to consumers . When we drive a combine over the field. Such new use of data has the capacity to transform every industry in similar ways.Generic Econ 1NC This is not the best scenario we have Utilizing big data will strengthen the economy Kennedy 14 (Dec. and better matching between educational institutions and students.000 and 190.” The United States already has an estimated 500. easier price comparisons. biotechnology. A recent OECD report listed some of the ways that more and better data will affect the economy : • Producing new goods and services. however. insects. For instance. it will enable a vast range of new products and services. whose use of data is sometimes viewed with suspicion. But it is now possible to cost-effectively collect those data and use them in an informed manner. This trend in data also has an impact on workers. however. the main constraint will be the ability to imagine new uses for this resource and to build a viable business model around these uses that delivers valuable products and services to consumers. Similar differences were found in asset utilization. Continued improvements in the price and capacity of tools for collecting. Finally.

The emerging markets.” to use the phrase coined by Guillermo Calvo (2006). Indonesia. There are well-known data issues in comparing unemployment rates across countries. a A Even a cursory reading of the global financial press in the past few months would lead one to despair that the world economy is moving through dark and uncharted waters. Even excluding the extraordinary experience of Japan.org/article/economic-and-fiscal-consequences-financialcrises //HS) Financial crises are historically associated with the “4 deadly D’s”: Sharp economic downturns follow banking crises.3%. and Thailand). Figure 2. Famous emerging market episodes in our study include the 1997– 1998 Asian crisis (Hong Kong. Central to the analysis is historical housing price data. during the current cycle. The unemployment rate rises an average of 7 percentage points over the down phase of the cycle. and the real value of government debt tends to explode. Iceland. the duration of the downturn averages roughly two years. In the remainder of this note. Past unemployment cycles and banking crises: Trough-to-peak percent increase in the unemployment rate (left panel) and years duration of downturn (right panel) Sources: Reinhart and Rogoff (2009a). When foreign capital comes to a “sudden stop. Ongoing crises are in dark shading. Real GDP per capita falls (from peak to trough) an average of over 9%. if somewhat shorter lived. Their crashes were 50 to 60%. Downturn It is now beyond contention that the present US financial crisis is severe by any metric. Malaysia. Sweden (1991). and more precarious fiscal fundamentals impact sovereign risk in the aftermath of the crises episodes. Kenneth Rogoff and I examined the international experience with episodes of severe banking crises. the crisis does not lead to the deadliest D: default.9%. and Argentina (2001). with an increase in the unemployment rate of about 7 percentage points. While none of the postwar episodes rivals the rise in unemployment of over 20 percentage points experienced by the US during the Great Depression. There are profound declines in output and employment. Asset market collapses are deep and prolonged. For the most fortunate countries. measured from peak to trough. the equity price declines that accompany banking crises are far steeper than are housing price declines. The duration of housing price declines is quite long-lived. The cycle from peak to trough in GDP is much shorter. As a result.Financial Crisis have long lasting adverse effects on the structures of economiesempirics Reinhart 9 (Jan. Ireland. Colombia and Hong Kong. As illustrated in Reinhart and Rogoff (2009a). Figure 2 looks at increases in unemployment rates across the historical episodes. do better in terms of unemployment than do the advanced economies (Figure 2). The cumulative decline in real housing prices from peak to trough averages 35. unemployment rises for almost five years. Spain. 26 2009. duration and characteristics of the economic slump following the crises traced out a few empirical regularities. But. Hungary. we focus on systemic financial crises. The housing price decline experienced by the US to date during the current episode (almost 28% according to the Case–Shiller index) is already more than twice that registered in the US during the Great Depression. and past crises are in light shading. Korea. Carmen Reinhart is a professor teaching about the international financial system at Harvard’s Kennedy School. The depth. Norway in 1899 and the US in 1929. As to real per capita GDP around banking crises. Finland (1991). the Philippines. Our main findings in that paper can be summarized as follows: Financial crises are protracted affairs. including the current episode in the US and a number of other countries now experiencing banking crises. Notably. We therefore include two earlier historical cases for which housing prices are available. The average historical decline in equity prices is 55.5%. the fiscal deficit worsens markedly. In a recent paper. as widespread “underemployment” in many emerging markets and the vast informal sector are not captured in the official unemployment statistics. but for many it has. “The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Financial Crises” Vox http://www. and Japan (1992). Austria. the average remains over five years. deteriorating economic conditions. Norway (1987). deficits lead to debt. rising an average of 86% in the major post–World War II episodes. with the downturn phase of the cycle lasting 3.1 Figure 1. I follow up with a sketch of how the crisis. A probable explanation for the more severe contractions in emerging market economies is that they are prone to abrupt reversals in the availability of foreign credit. the employment consequences of financial crises are large in many cases. economic activity heads into a tailspin. as the latter went from a pre-crisis surplus of nearly 4% of GDP to a whopping 15% deficit-to-GDP ratio. Real housing price declines average 35% stretched out over six years. The declines in real GDP are smaller for advanced economies than for emerging market economies. the average magnitude of the decline is 9. On average. Past and ongoing real house price cycles and banking crises: peak-to-trough price declines (left panel) and years duration of downturn (right panel) Source: Reinhart and Rogoff (2009a). Equity price collapses average 55% over a downturn of about three and a half years. The most severe real housing price declines were experienced by Finland. I elaborate on these points. there is precedent. Deficits Declining revenues and higher expenditures owing to a combination of bailout costs and higher transfer payments and debt servicing costs lead to a rapid and marked worsening in the fiscal balance. The episodes of Finland and Sweden stand out in this regard. with government revenues dragged down. There are significant adverse consequences of the financial crisis on government finances. as debt piles up rating downgrades follow. averaging roughly six years.4 years. which can be difficult to obtain and are critical for assessing the present episode. Colombia (1998). and the UK. Figure 1 looks at the bust phase in housing price cycles surrounding banking crises. Tax revenues shrink as the economic conditions deteriorate. fiscal deficits worsen. The “big five” advanced economy crises include episodes in Spain (1977). only two years. in fact. Iceland and Austria have already experienced peak-to-trough equity price declines far exceeding the average of the historical comparison group. which lasts on average over four years. the Philippines.voxeu. particularly those in Asia.Debt Figure 3 shows the rise .

Terrorism’s appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced.S. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. respectively.” The global nature of the present crisis will make it far more difficult for many countries to grow their way out through higher exports. The growth slowdown is amplified in world commodity markets. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025.in real government debt in the three years following a banking crisis. Unemployment rises and housing price declines extend out for five and six years. With so many possible permutations of outcomes. While we continue to believe that the Great Depression is not likely to be repeated. however. as the source of the crisis may have received too little credence. As Reinhart and Rogoff (2009b) note. Matthew Burrows is a counselor at the National Intelligence Council. more often than not. as many emerging markets face steep declines in their terms of trade. The crises. There is no reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty first as much as in the twentieth century. albeit almost invariably accompanied by massive increases in government debt . The close proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile . because sometimes steep output drops would complicate interpretation of debt–GDP ratios. however. the characteristic huge buildups in government debt are driven mainly by sharp falloffs in tax revenue.pdf) Of course. Institutional Investor sovereign ratings cycles and banking crises: Peak-to-trough index declines (left panel) and years duration of downturn (right panel) Conclusions (not delusions) An examination of the aftermath of severe financial crises shows deep and lasting effects on asset prices. the lessons to be drawn from that period [the Great Depression] include the harmful effects on fledgling democracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on the sustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of Nations in the same period). The effects. Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups inheriting organizational structures. the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions.armed Iran could lead states in the region to develop new security arrangements with external powers. In surveying those risks.radicalized. Figure 3.S. each with ample Hostility toward the U. If historical patterns hold. The most dangerous casualty of any economically . output and employment. the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the world’s most dangerous capabilities within their reach. do not appear to be “permanent. there is a growing sense of insecurity. command and control processes. adversely impact sovereign creditworthiness. particularly if the recovery process in the world’s largest economies is delayed.induced drawdown of U. particularly in the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an economic downturn. The much publicized bank bailout costs are typically second order. the ways in which the potential for greater conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in a constantly volatile economic environment as they would be if change would be steadier. worries about a nuclear . rather than debt-to-GDP. “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” The Washington Quarterly http://csis. history may be more instructive than ever. Downgrades (and sometimes default) Figure 4. We look at percentage increase in debt. and is the lead writer of the report Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. Ecuador has already defaulted and others are teetering on the brink. Even recessions sparked by financial crises do eventually end. acquire additional weapons.org/files/publication/twq09aprilburrows. Even so. the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. The deterioration in government finances is striking. and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become self . For that reason. Revisiting the Future opportunity for unintended consequences. It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran . Jennifer Harris is a member of the National Intelligence Council who specializes in long range analysis. the current lull in sovereign defaults or restructurings in emerging markets will likely to come to an end. an agency that supplies long term predictions of global events to the Director of National Intelligence. Although Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable. An Economic crisis would cause global tension and war Burrows and Harris 9 (April 2009. as reflected in a higher risk premia. Cumulative increase in real public debt in the three years following the banking crisis Sources: Reinhart and Rogoff (2008b) and sources cited therein. with an average debt rise of over 86%. military presence would almost certainly be the Middle East.

short warning and missile flight times . Even actions short of war. one of the most obvious funding targets may be military.dog world. If the fiscal stimulus focus for these countries indeed turns inward. to be essential for maintaining domestic stability and the survival of their regime. however. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel.capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack. cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be increasingly difficult both within and between states in a more dog . potentially leading to escalating crises. With water also becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East. for example. will have important geopolitical implications.mercantilist practices. but it also will create opportunities for multinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes. and counterbalancing moves . . could reemerge . such as over resources. particularly if protectionism grows and there is a resort to neo . and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focus on preemption rather than defense. this could result in interstate conflicts if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources.eat . rivalries. Buildup of regional naval capabilities could lead to increased tensions.dual . In the worst case. such as China’s and India’s development of blue water naval capabilities. Perceptions of renewed energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to energy supplies . Types of conflict that the world continues to experience. Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and modernization efforts.

it also offers significant new opportunities for creating value. Industry forecasts point to only modest growth over the next five years as the sector steadily. Chui is a partner of McKinsey Global Institute where he specializes in research on the impact of information tech and innovation on businesses. Since the 1990s. first appeared in the 1970s. Competition. down a percentage point from 2000. Retailers across the industry are becoming more sophisticated in slicing and dicing big data they collect from multiple sales channels. recovers from recession. Wal-Mart’s detailed and cost-efficient customer tracking gives the retailer the ability to mine petabytes of data on customer preferences and buying behavior. This “vendor-managed inventory” was a revolutionary concept when it was introduced in the late 1980s.Retail 1NC Big Data creates new competitive advantages and revenue for retailers Manyika et al 11 (May 2011. and strategy. and online customer behavior and sentiment. The volume of data is growing inexorably as retailers not only record every customer transaction and operation but also keep track of emerging data sources such as radio-frequency identification (RFID) chips that track products. Chui is a partner of McKinsey Global Institute where he specializes in research on the impact of information tech and innovation on businesses.7 percent through 2015. Both of these initiatives improved the retailer’s capital and labor productivity and cost position. the director of McKinsey Global Institute and a former leader within technology companies where he focused on innovation. This project was led by James Manyika. In fact.com/insights/business_technology/big_data_the_next_frontier_for_innovation //HS) Retail makes up a sizable part of the US economy. the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting annual US GDP growth of 2. and strategy. As a matter of reference. squeezed both by suppliers. McKinsey Global Institute is a research contracting firm. we found that Wal-Mart directly and indirectly caused the bulk of the productivity acceleration through ongoing managerial innovation (e. Big data levers applied to operations and supply chains will continue to reduce costs and increasingly create new competitive advantages and strategies for growing retailers’ revenue. that share was an estimated 6 percent of the economy. And the sector’s profitability is under intense pressure . and online interactions.g.” a tool that gives its suppliers a view of demand in its stores so that they know when stores should be restocked rather than waiting for an order from Wal-Mart. US retail has been leveraging information technology for decades . http://www. Today.mckinsey. and Productivity” McKinsey Global Institute.. In previous MGI research on the acceleration of productivity in general merchandise retail in the 1990s. the econ. catalogs. leading players are mining customer data to inform decisions they make about managing their supply chain to merchandising and pricing. WalMart also developed “Retail Link. who have been capturing an . When other retailers moved in the 1990s to emulate what Wal-Mart had pioneered in order to remain competitive. and thereby win important pricing and distribution concessions from consumer product goods companies . primarily obtained from the use of bar codes. “Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation. Michael Chui also assisted in leading the research. Michael Chui also assisted in leading the research.mckinsey. “Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation. growth. Wal-Mart pioneered the expansion of an electronic data interchange system to connect its supply chain electronically. stores. growth. and Productivity” McKinsey Global Institute. The retail sector is a litmus test for economic strength Manyika et al 11 (May 2011.com/insights/business_technology/big_data_the_next_frontier_for_innovation //HS) While big data linked to new technology does squeeze the industry in some ways. productivity surged across the industry. many leading retailers have been using store-level and supply chain data to optimize distribution and logistics. the econ. McKinsey Global Institute is a research contracting firm. Historical trends have demonstrated that there is a close relationship between growth in retail and that of developed market economies as a whole . Point-ofsale transactional data. and society. Sector retailers and their competitors are in a constant race to identify and implement those big data levers that will give them an edge in the market. the director of McKinsey Global Institute and a former leader within technology companies where he focused on innovation. Retail’s share of overall consumer spending has been in decline. Competition. This project was led by James Manyika. and upgrade store operations. sharpen merchandise planning and management. everyday low price) that increased competitive intensity and drove the diffusion of managerial and technological best practices. http://www. big-box formats. The widespread use of increasingly granular customer data can enable retailers to improve the effectiveness of their marketing and merchandising . falling from 50 percent in 1990 to 42 percent in 2009. In 2009. and society. but slowly.

military presence would almost certainly be the Middle East. Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups inheriting organizational structures. acquire additional weapons. the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. but it also will create opportunities for multinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes. Terrorism’s appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced.org/files/publication/twq09aprilburrows. down from $0. retailers collected approximately $0. While we continue to believe that the Great Depression is not likely to be repeated.capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack.31. An Economic crisis would cause global tension and war Burrows and Harris 9 (April 2009.00 of operating profit on consumer goods in 2008. Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and modernization efforts. however. If the fiscal stimulus focus for these countries indeed turns inward. and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions. the lessons to be drawn from that period [the Great Depression] include the harmful effects on fledgling democracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on the sustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of Nations in the same period). The most dangerous casualty of any economically . such as over resources. to be essential for maintaining domestic stability and the survival of their regime. and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focus on preemption rather than defense. and others below retail on the value chain received $0. particularly if protectionism grows and there is a resort to neo . there is a growing sense of insecurity. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. Revisiting the Future opportunity for unintended consequences. each with ample Hostility toward the U.mercantilist practices. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025.increasing amount of surplus. and counterbalancing moves .induced drawdown of U. the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. one of the most obvious funding targets may be military. For that reason.pdf) Of course. history may be more instructive than ever. In the worst case.S. will have important geopolitical implications. worries about a nuclear .armed Iran could lead states in the region to develop new security arrangements with external powers. In surveying those risks. There is no reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty first as much as in the twentieth century. With so many possible permutations of outcomes. Matthew Burrows is a counselor at the National Intelligence Council. Although Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable. and by customers. It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran . Even actions short of war. the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the world’s most dangerous capabilities within their reach. this could result in interstate conflicts if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources. Types of conflict that the world continues to experience. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel. For every $1. as the source of the crisis may have received too little credence. and is the lead writer of the report Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. however. particularly in the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an economic downturn. With water also becoming scarcer in Asia and the . who are putting pressure on prices. while suppliers. for example. “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” The Washington Quarterly http://csis. potentially leading to escalating crises. command and control processes. Even so. Jennifer Harris is a member of the National Intelligence Council who specializes in long range analysis. such as China’s and India’s development of blue water naval capabilities. and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become self . rivalries.radicalized. short warning and missile flight times .60 in 1999. The close proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual . Perceptions of renewed energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to energy supplies . could reemerge .S. an agency that supplies long term predictions of global events to the Director of National Intelligence. the ways in which the potential for greater conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in a constantly volatile economic environment as they would be if change would be steadier.69 (Exhibit 20). Buildup of regional naval capabilities could lead to increased tensions. packagers.

Middle East. cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be increasingly difficult both within and between states in a more dog . .eat .dog world.

to systems that monitor the performance of products that have already been sold (e. and strategy. featuring extended supply chains made possible by advances in information and communications technology. and Productivity” McKinsey Global Institute. computer-aided design. the econ. much of the recovery in American manufacturing seems to be based on a cyclical boom in “durable” goods — things that you expect to last a long time. and society. Employment in the sector is still lower than before the crash. the director of McKinsey Global Institute and a former leader within technology companies where he focused on innovation. during a single cross-country flight. manufacturers will need to leverage large datasets to drive efficiency across the extended enterprise and to design and market higher-quality products. 25. Competition. computer-aided engineering. Also. During the recession. it is more difficult to put off purchases of non-durable goods. but those in China were booming. end-to-end supply chain data. Increasingly global and fragmented manufacturing value chains create new challenges that manufacturers must overcome to sustain productivity growth. Advanced manufacturers also often have a large number of suppliers. In short. The “raw material” is readily available. technological change and globalization have allowed countries to specialize in specific stages of the production process. add to the mounting pile of evidence saying that manufacturing growth is starting to slow. it is not a sustainable one. McKinsey Global Institute is a research contracting firm. IT systems installed along the value chain to monitor the extended enterprise are creating additional stores of increasingly complex data. “Worrying Signs” The Economist.only a question of utilizing new data Manyika et al 11 (May 2011. the explosion in information and communication technology. A few things seemed to be on the side of the makers. which currently tends to reside only in the IT system where it is generated.com/insights/business_technology/big_data_the_next_frontier_for_innovation //HS) The manufacturing sector has been the backbone of many developed economies and remains an important driver of GDP and employment there. like cars and fridges. for instance. Michael Chui also assisted in leading the research. released today. The number of RFID tags sold globally is projected to rise from 12 million in 2011 to 209 billion in 2021. collaborative product development management. But as we argued recently. Manufacturing stores more data than any other sector —close to 2 exabytes of new data stored in 2010. This project was led by James Manyika. American wages were stagnant. like medicines. manufacturers have assembled global production and supply chain networks to achieve cost advantages. It is typical for a large automobile original equipment manufacturer (OEM) assembly plant to be supplied by up to 4. with the rise of production capacity and capability in China and other low-cost nations.. .need a boost now The Economist 15 (Mar. manufacturing has become an increasingly global activity. a typical global consumer electronics manufacturer has production facilities on almost every continent. for example. And the amount of data generated will continue to grow exponentially. http://www. from instrumented production machinery (process control). We argued before that although there has been a recovery in American manufacturing in recent years. to supply chain management systems. As a result.Manufacturing 1NC Empirics prove Big Data can help the manufacturing sector.g. orders for durable goods plunged (see second chart). Manufacturing UQ.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/03/american-manufacturing-0 //HS) IN RECENT years there has been much talk of a “renaissance” in American manufacturing . To continue achieving high levels of productivity growth. Chui is a partner of McKinsey Global Institute where he specializes in research on the impact of information tech and innovation on businesses. has hugely accelerated the industrial development path and created increasingly complex webs of value chains spanning the world. America has not got better at producing stuff. http://www. and digital manufacturing. growth. For instance. The Economist is a publication focusing on economic issues and news. until recently the dollar was weak.economist. “Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation. By contrast. weighing logistics costs against manufacturing costs to optimize the footprint of their facilities. However. along with reduced international freight costs and lower entry barriers to markets worldwide. manufacturers already have a significant amount of digital data with which to work. While globalization is not a recent phenomenon. That’s because it is quite easy to put off such purchases. And new figures. 2015. a Boeing 737 generates 240 terabytes of data).mckinsey. specialized in producing specific types of components where they have sustainable advantages both in cost and quality. Cheap shale oil and gas gave factories a boost. For example. and across organizational boundaries in.000 outside vendors. This sector generates data from a multitude of sources. Manufacturers will also begin to combine data from different systems including. So is one important measure of output: real value added (see first set of charts). In many cases. talk of a renaissance is overblown. computer-aided manufacturing.

induced drawdown of U. according to recent data from the Federal Reserve.pdf) Of course. For that reason. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established.S. command and control processes. While we continue to believe that the Great Depression is not likely to be repeated. New data confirm this prediction. Jennifer Harris is a member of the National Intelligence Council who specializes in long range analysis. however. And companies may not be so confident either . as the source of the crisis may have received too little credence. argue. and are thus not in the mood to add to capital stock. consumer credit grew at the slowest pace in over a year. an agency that supplies long term predictions of global events to the Director of National Intelligence. spurred demand for new motors and rapid growth in carmaking. history may be more instructive than ever. This is because when pent-up demand is satisfied. In recent months consumer confidence has dropped a bit. an investment bank. Indeed. the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. **Econ Scenario** An Economic crisis would cause global tension and war Burrows and Harris 9 (April 2009. a consultancy. a few big industries will suffer. for economic growth overall. The most dangerous casualty of any economically . there is a growing sense of insecurity. That the recent bad weather has had an effect here. This does not bode well for American manufacturing or. It is possible that credit. Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups inheriting organizational structures. each with ample Hostility toward the U. core orders have now fallen in every month since last October. Cheap sector accounted for over a third of durables growth from 2009 to 2013. and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions. and is the lead writer of the report Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. In surveying those risks.because people tend to consume them more frequently. Overall output is likely to stall. In January.org/files/publication/twq09aprilburrows. Matthew Burrows is a counselor at the National Intelligence Council. "the more general malaise started back in the autumn of last year. production of durable goods soared. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025. says Steven Ricchiuto of Mizuho Securities.radicalized." In recent months non-durable goods have also fallen quite rapidly. indeed. There is no reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty first as much as in the twentieth century. But it may be a sign of something more troubling.5%. Yet a recovery based on a few durables industries is unsustainable. military presence would almost certainly be the Middle East. Although Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable. Even so. What explains all this? The obvious culprit is the strong dollar. the lessons to be drawn from that period [the Great Depression] include the harmful effects on fledgling democracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on the sustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of Nations in the same period).armed Iran could lead states in the region to develop new security arrangements with external powers. Motor-vehicle orders fell by 0. Orders for durable goods fell by 1. It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran . Alternatively. because it makes manufacturing exports (which account for roughly half of America's total) more expensive. acquire additional weapons.S. and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become self . the ways in which the potential for greater conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in a constantly volatile economic environment as they would be if change would be steadier. the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” The Washington Quarterly http://csis. With so many possible permutations of outcomes. for instance. Terrorism’s appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. it may be because consumers are starting to pull back on spending. After the recession. The close proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual .capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in achieving reliable . the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the world’s most dangerous capabilities within their reach. worries about a nuclear . As economists at Capital Economics. particularly in the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an economic downturn. Revisiting the Future opportunity for unintended consequences.4% in February.

to be essential for maintaining domestic stability and the survival of their regime. Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and modernization efforts.eat . but it also will create opportunities for multinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes. particularly if protectionism grows and there is a resort to neo .dog world. Perceptions of renewed energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to energy supplies . could reemerge . however. Even actions short of war. for example. and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focus on preemption rather than defense. this could result in interstate conflicts if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel.indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack. Buildup of regional naval capabilities could lead to increased tensions. With water also becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East. such as China’s and India’s development of blue water naval capabilities. one of the most obvious funding targets may be military.mercantilist practices. Types of conflict that the world continues to experience. and counterbalancing moves . cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be increasingly difficult both within and between states in a more dog . short warning and missile flight times . will have important geopolitical implications. rivalries. In the worst case. If the fiscal stimulus focus for these countries indeed turns inward. potentially leading to escalating crises. such as over resources. **[]** .

Such a system could look at the usage data of an aircraft and predict when a component needs replacing. aircraft under different weather and traffic situations and supply chain management. 2015. For example. Ideally you want to replicate the way the nervous system uses pain to signal damage within the body and then trigger a remedy. not only the quantity but also quality of data is increasing rapidly such that computer scientists are able to design more detailed models to describe the underlying physics of complex systems. and a design is then iterated until the desired and actual data match. the main goal is to turn data into useful. When converting data to actionable information one challenge is how to account for as much of the data as possible before reaching a conclusion. but such a capability is exactly what is needed in the aerospace environment . Even though structural health monitoring systems are feasible today. This combination of factors makes analysing and interpreting data via a live stream incredibly difficult . in the aerospace industry the major value drivers will be . high volume and diverse data stream may not be the most important characteristic for data analytics. In this case it is imperative to fail quickly and find out out what works and what does not. Rather it is more important that the data be relevant. Sensors have been collecting data on aircraft for years ranging from binary data such as speed. understanding automation and the human-machine interaction.Aerospace Big data will be a pillar of the aerospace industry Groh 15 (Mar 26.com http://aerospaceengineeringblog. Thus. what are the implications for the aerospace industry? Big data: According to Google a “buzzword to describe a massive volume of both structured and unstructured data that is so large that it’s difficult to process using traditional database and software techniques. D student at the University of Bristol where he is studying aerospace engineering. For example. This is very much an evolutionary. big data opens the door for a new type of adaptive design in which data from sensors are used to describe the characteristics of a specific outcome. The algorithm can then be refined iteratively by using the expertise of an engineer to point the computer in the right direction. Furthermore. Other areas within aerospace that will greatly benefit from insights gleaned from data streams are cyber security. Furthermore. For example in the 1990’s very limited data existed in terms of understanding the airport taxi-way structure.” Fundamentally. structural health monitoring has received a lot of attention within research institutes because an internal sensory system that provides information about the real stresses and strains within a structure could improve prognostics about the “health” of a part and indicate when service intervals and replacements are needed. Therefore good insights can also be gleaned from smaller data if the data analytics is powerful. trial-and-error approach that will be invaluable for highly complex systems where cause and effect are not easily correlated and deterministic approaches are not possible. Big data could also serve as the underlying structure that establishies autonomous aircraft on a wide scale. What exactly does “big data” mean? Big data is characterised by a data stream that is high in volume. not well defined hypothesis about a future design or system they are trying to understand. For example. the likelihood that a part will fail could be translating into an associated repair that is the best compromise in terms of safety and cost. “Big Data in Aerospace” Aerospaceengineeringblog. As more and more people are connected to the internet and sensors become ubiquitous parts of daily hardware an unprecedented amount of information is being produced. Thus. He is an award winning research paper writer and has been published in several academic journals. the information can be fed back to the structural engineers to improve the design for future aircraft. which means that in a decade 30 times the amount of data will be produced than today. complete and measurable. big data is incredibly important because the underlying stream from distributed data systems on aircraft or weather data systems can be aggregated and analysed in consonance to create new insights for safety. Given this this trend. altitude and stability of the aircraft during flight. to damage and crack growth progression at service intervals. big data is nothing new for the aerospace industry. analysing the data stream in real time and providing diagnostics and prognostics remains a challenge . actionable knowledge. a research team may define some general. Rainer Groh is a Ph.com/big-data-in-aerospace/ //HS) “Big data” is all abuzz in the media these days . a high velocity. Finally. high velocity and coming from multiple sources and in a variety of forms . Thus. While aerospace is neither search nor social media. Today we have the opposite situation in that we have more data than we can actually use. Some analysts project 40% growth in data over the next decade. and then use data analytics to explore the available solutions and come up with initial insights into the governing factors of a system. The authorities and parties involved have done an incredible job at using routine data and data gathered from failures to raise safety standards.

We build the most efficient and capable commercial airplanes in the world . and shifting demographics. civil aviation alone is responsible for 12 million jobs and contributes to more than 5 1/2 percent of the US GDP . It will be competitive in China. China is the largest market outside the Unit ed States for many companies – including Boeing. but so me of them will. Aerospace will be essential to help us reach that goal. it's been estimated that U. we see a need for 31. it changed forever how we look at the world around us w hen man first walked on the Moon . we expect world GDP to grow at about 4 percent between 2011 and 2015. control and aerodynamics . challenging and rapidly changing. which will allow engineers and scientists to combine datasets in new ways and gain insights from complex systems that are hard to analyse deterministically.000 new airplanes.000 miles from t he epicenter. we felt the impact of that disast er. We saw that with the earthquake in Japan. Looking fo rward. In 1990. as the world’s leader in aerospace. And our orbital manned space program – a program the United States will walk away from this year – is second to none. at least not yet .org/assets/speech_042711_albaugh. A Recovering Market The commercial aviation market has been roaring back the last 15 months. Over the next 20 years. the futu re looks good from a macro standpoint. Our commercial and military satellites are phenomenal in what they can do. They have the financial and intellectual resources necessary. the future looks good. structures. What happens in other areas of the world matters everywhere. exports in five years.6 trillion dollar market. To me. we ’re not trying to reclaim our lead.S. American aerospace defined the 20 th Century. yet more complicated because of that interconnection. Today. I’d like to talk about a few of them: globalization. In this manner data science will transform into a fundamental pillar of aerospace engineering . Not all the new entrants will be successful.5 times world GDP.pdf //HS) I believe we’re at a crossroads. The world is more interconnected. We’re trying to keep it. despite the impact of the worst recession since the Great Depression. Jim Albaugh is the former president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes..its key to respond to nontraditional threats Albaugh 11 (Apr. aerospace that does it ? That’s a critical question because what we do helps keep America strong. At the same time. Increased Competition We’re also seeing increased competition. the world is flat.S. It tips the balance of trade in our favor by about $53 billion. We’ve got to assume our competitors will do what t hey say they’re going to do. By 2030. that number will be only 45 percent.aia-aerospace. It’s a market many countries and companies covet. Globalization Let’s talk first about globalization. The question is: Will we take the steps required to maintain our leadership? Or will we allow aerospace and aviation to join the list of industries that America used to lead? Aerospace Makes America Strong To understand why that’s so impor tant. will it be U. The Chinese have made commercial aviation a national priority. The weapons systems we produce are unmatched. growing. No one is ahead of America in aerospace. The U. When you look at direct 1 and secondary impacts. alongside the classical foundations such as propulsion.. “Keeping America’s Lead in Aerospace” http://www. Aerospace is strong now but facing competition. $263 billion commercial airplane backlog. Eventually. While not discounting events in Northern Africa.S. Let me give you an example. 72 percent of passenger traffic was in Europe and the Americ as. At Boeing. It brought the world closer toget her with commercial air travel. Globalization means our partner s and customers are not just in the U. That’s a $3. And.. No industry has a bigger impact on exports. They are now developing the C919. With ai r traffic increasing at a rate 1. I am also convinced that aerospace will define the 21 st century. It didn’t meet market expectations. they are around the world. And the desire for market access . is the undisputed leader. Soon.S. Chines e airplanes will compete around the world. 27. countries like China with Comac. 2011. 2 China is investing $30 billion in this industry. Despite the fact that our factories in Washington state are more than 4. They spent $5 billion on a regional jet. But our leadership is being threatened by other countries intent on replacing the U. a narrow-body airplane to compete with the 737. The question is. Other countries and companie s are attracted by the $3.6 trillion market I mentioned earlier. President Obama has set the goal of doubling U. It helped wi n World War II. I was fortunate enough to join this industry in the final quarter of a remarkable century. The State of Aerospace So what does our commercial marketplace look like today? It’s vibrant. That outlook is being shaped by many factor s. globalization drives air traffic. they make it happen. of course. we have a 7-year. And of course. Canada with Bombardier and Brazil with Embraer.S. The traditional duopoly between Boeing and Airbus is over. They’re one of only three countries to put a man into space and once they make someth ing a national priority.data analytics and data science.S. and the potential impact on the price of oil. Tom Friedman was ri ght. It changed the way we communicate with commercial satellites. we have to look at what aerospace has done for our country. The major challenge is how to upscale the current systems into a new era where the information system is the foundation of the entire aerospace environment . Russia with Sukhoi. competition. over half of the world’s GDP will be coming from emerging countries.

military threats have also evolved. It should focus us.has convinced many American executives to share technologies that may one day help Chinese companies compete around the world for the same busin ess. As a result of this sh ifting dynamic. and we trusted them not to us e weapons of mass destruction. During the Cold War. we knew who our enemies were. but we k now that if given the chance to use deadly weapons they will. Our armed forces must prepare for nontraditional threats. the needs of our military have evolved. and that’s changing the mix of platforms and priorities the DoD is seeking. It’s interesting that China has moved from cu stomer/supplier to cu stomer/competitor in four short decades representing both opportuni ty and challenge. This should not scare us. but around the globe. v [insert terror impact here] . not only in China. Today we often don't know who they are. Changing Military Threats Meanwhile. We have to be very mindful in balancing those risks and potential rewards.

the research university Fondazione Bruno Kessler and the Institute for Data Driven Design. if we navigate the pitfalls carefully. So in this new era.voxeu. Telecom Italia.org/article/economic-and-fiscal-consequences-financialcrises //HS) Financial crises are historically associated with the “4 deadly D’s”: Sharp economic downturns follow banking crises. Software tools such as our openPDS (Personal Data Store) system. Telefonica.” “The Data-Driven Society” ebsco host //HS) FOR THE FIRST TIME in history. This fantasy could quickly become a reality -. deficits lead to debt. There are profound declines in output and employment. Our main findings in that paper can be summarized as follows: Financial crises are protracted affairs. duration and characteristics of the economic slump following the crises traced out a few empirical regularities. detect and prevent infectious disease. disease spread. it is impossible to tune the data to all of them at once. moving to a data-driven society will be a challenge. with government revenues dragged down. One example of a living lab is the open-data city we just launched in Trento. Big data promises to lead to a transition on par with the invention of writing or the Internet. there are often thousands of reasonable hypotheses. even the scientific method as we typically use it no longer works: there are so many potential connections that our standard statistical tools often generate nonsense results. MIT Professor. 26 2009.our reality. Of course. The depth. Financial Crisis have long lasting adverse effects on the structures of economiesempirics Reinhart 9 (Jan. Carmen Reinhart is a professor teaching about the international financial system at Harvard’s Kennedy School. anonymized and shared with other young families via openPDS safely and automatically. For the most fortunate countries. Kenneth Rogoff and I examined the international experience with episodes of severe banking crises. Real housing price declines average 35% stretched out over six years. a A Even a cursory reading of the global financial press in the past few months would lead one to despair that the world economy is moving through dark and uncharted waters. the crisis does not lead to the deadliest D: default. but for many it has. makes it safe for individuals to share personal data (such as health details or facts about their children) by controlling where their information goes and what is done with it. We have to begin testing connections in the real world far earlier and more frequently than we ever have before. one openPDS application encourages the sharing of best practices among families with young children. Alex Pentland is a computer science pioneer. Asset market collapses are deep and prolonged. there is precedent. He created the MIT Media lab and has been called by Forbes one of the “7 most powerful data scientists in the world. Imagine: we could predict and mitigate financial crashes. as debt piles up rating downgrades follow. But in the messy complexity of large-scale social systems. We believe that experiments like the one we are carrying out in Trento will show that the potential rewards of a data-driven society are worth the effort -. such data can be collected. and resource efficiency Pentland 13 (October. “The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Financial Crises” Vox http://www. Italy. The standard scientific approach gives us good results when the hypothesis is clear and the data are designed to answer the question. and oft cited author of computer science writings. fiscal deficits worsen. Equity price collapses average 55% over a downturn of about three and a half years. For example. in fact. In a recent paper. we will need to manage our society in a new way.and the risk. In a world of unlimited data. we can see enough about ourselves to build social systems that work better than the ones we have always had. We need to construct "living labs" in which we can test our ideas for building datadriven societies. The unemployment rate rises an average of 7 percentage points over the down phase of the . which implements the New Deal on Data. with cooperation from the city government .Laundry List Integrating big data into society revolutionizes it and solves Economic crashes. The goal of this project is to promote greater idea flow within Trento . use our natural resources wisely and encourage creativity to flourish. But. How do other families spend their money? How much do they get out and socialize? Which preschools or doctors do people stay with for the longest time? Once the individual gives permission.

the current lull in sovereign defaults or restructurings in emerging markets will likely to come to an end. the equity price declines that accompany banking crises are far steeper than are housing price declines. and Thailand). The crises. as the latter went from a pre-crisis surplus of nearly 4% of GDP to a whopping 15% deficit-to-GDP ratio.” The global nature of the present crisis will make it far more difficult for many countries to grow their way out through higher exports. and Japan (1992). particularly those in Asia. Figure 2 looks at increases in unemployment rates across the historical episodes. Iceland. Famous emerging market episodes in our study include the 1997– 1998 Asian crisis (Hong Kong. unemployment rises for almost five years. more often than not. The effects. We therefore include two earlier historical cases for which housing prices are available.3%.4 years. The “big five” advanced economy crises include episodes in Spain (1977). The cumulative decline in real housing prices from peak to trough averages 35. The most severe real housing price declines were experienced by Finland. . as many emerging markets face steep declines in their terms of trade. as reflected in a higher risk premia. Past and ongoing real house price cycles and banking crises: peak-to-trough price declines (left panel) and years duration of downturn (right panel) Source: Reinhart and Rogoff (2009a). We look at percentage increase in debt.5%. the Philippines. and past crises are in light shading. Downgrades (and sometimes default) Figure 4. if somewhat shorter lived. If historical patterns hold. the characteristic huge buildups in government debt are driven mainly by sharp falloffs in tax revenue. and more precarious fiscal fundamentals impact sovereign risk in the aftermath of the crises episodes. Ongoing crises are in dark shading. The declines in real GDP are smaller for advanced economies than for emerging market economies. The cycle from peak to trough in GDP is much shorter. Unemployment rises and housing price declines extend out for five and six years. The much publicized bank bailout costs are typically second order. Hungary. Norway (1987). including the current episode in the US and a number of other countries now experiencing banking crises. The average historical decline in equity prices is 55. because sometimes steep output drops would complicate interpretation of debt–GDP ratios. Institutional Investor sovereign ratings cycles and banking crises: Peak-to-trough index declines (left panel) and years duration of downturn (right panel) Conclusions (not delusions) An examination of the aftermath of severe financial crises shows deep and lasting effects on asset prices. I follow up with a sketch of how the crisis. Austria. the average magnitude of the decline is 9. Korea. Even excluding the extraordinary experience of Japan. There are well-known data issues in comparing unemployment rates across countries. do better in terms of unemployment than do the advanced economies (Figure 2). The deterioration in government finances is striking. the duration of the downturn averages roughly two years. rather than debt-to-GDP. The duration of housing price declines is quite long-lived. Iceland and Austria have already experienced peak-to-trough equity price declines far exceeding the average of the historical comparison group. Spain. only two years. and the UK. There are significant adverse consequences of the financial crisis on government finances. the employment consequences of financial crises are large in many cases. Colombia (1998). While none of the postwar episodes rivals the rise in unemployment of over 20 percentage points experienced by the US during the Great Depression. The growth slowdown is amplified in world commodity markets.” to use the phrase coined by Guillermo Calvo (2006). respectively. averaging roughly six years. Notably. and the real value of government debt tends to explode. Their crashes were 50 to 60%. economic activity heads into a tailspin. I elaborate on these points. Malaysia.cycle. particularly if the recovery process in the world’s largest economies is delayed. and Argentina (2001). Even recessions sparked by financial crises do eventually end. As to real per capita GDP around banking crises. Finland (1991). however. As Reinhart and Rogoff (2009b) note.1 Figure 1. Tax revenues shrink as the economic conditions deteriorate. the fiscal deficit worsens markedly. Colombia and Hong Kong. Ecuador has already defaulted and others are teetering on the brink. The emerging markets. Figure 3. as widespread “underemployment” in many emerging markets and the vast informal sector are not captured in the official unemployment statistics. albeit almost invariably accompanied by massive increases in government debt . The housing price decline experienced by the US to date during the current episode (almost 28% according to the Case–Shiller index) is already more than twice that registered in the US during the Great Depression. during the current cycle. As a result. Real GDP per capita falls (from peak to trough) an average of over 9%. Cumulative increase in real public debt in the three years following the banking crisis Sources: Reinhart and Rogoff (2008b) and sources cited therein. do not appear to be “permanent. rising an average of 86% in the major post–World War II episodes. Downturn It is now beyond contention that the present US financial crisis is severe by any metric. adversely impact sovereign creditworthiness. Norway in 1899 and the US in 1929. we focus on systemic financial crises. Indonesia. measured from peak to trough. A probable explanation for the more severe contractions in emerging market economies is that they are prone to abrupt reversals in the availability of foreign credit. Deficits Declining revenues and higher expenditures owing to a combination of bailout costs and higher transfer payments and debt servicing costs lead to a rapid and marked worsening in the fiscal balance. Central to the analysis is historical housing price data. Ireland. The episodes of Finland and Sweden stand out in this regard. with the downturn phase of the cycle lasting 3. the average remains over five years. with an average debt rise of over 86%. Figure 1 looks at the bust phase in housing price cycles surrounding banking crises.9%. deteriorating economic conditions. Figure 2. with an increase in the unemployment rate of about 7 percentage points. which can be difficult to obtain and are critical for assessing the present episode. On average. When foreign capital comes to a “sudden stop. the Philippines.Debt Figure 3 shows the rise in real government debt in the three years following a banking crisis. In the remainder of this note. output and employment. As illustrated in Reinhart and Rogoff (2009a). Past unemployment cycles and banking crises: Trough-to-peak percent increase in the unemployment rate (left panel) and years duration of downturn (right panel) Sources: Reinhart and Rogoff (2009a). which lasts on average over four years. Sweden (1991).

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2NC Extensions .

stanford.pdf //HS) One of the big changes in modern business is that debates and decisions are routinely informed by large amounts of data analytics. However. 2015.2nc gov data key Government collected data can guide policy and improve the efficiency of government operations Einav and Levin 2014 (Liran Einav is a professor of economics at Stanford and a writer for the National Bureau of Economics. New York City now provides a huge catalog of data sets available for download at NYC OpenData. a The Data Revolution and Economic Analysis 11 2008 report by the JASON study group described some of these challenges in the context of how the military must try to process and analyze the vast quantities of sensor data that have become available . The repository includes geolocation data on schools. For example. Deven Parekh is a writer for TechCrunch. 2. the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services has a record of every Medicare health claim over the last few decades. Every Fortune 2000 management team is now thinking: Is my data safe? What could happen if my company’s data is made public and how could my data be used against me? And of course.sands of government data sets.lyze restaurant health inspections and document that the restaurant hy. and in at least some companies. but it is proscribed from using this dataintensive approach by Congress. Similarly.com/2015/01/02/the-year-of-big-data-is-upon-us/ //HS) The creation of all of this data isn’t as interesting as the possible uses of it. The government provides critical data to private companies. and eventually will have enormous amounts of clinical information from electronic health records. Ho (2012) has used this source to ana.giene grades in New York have very little consistency across inspection and little year. One opportunity that some government agencies seem to be exploring is to make data sets accessible and hope that researchers or other individuals will utilize these data sets in ways that end up improving agency functions. email conversations and information about actual movies. The data it collects almost certainly would allow for detailed cost benefit analyses of different treatments and procedures . security software companies are investing in big data analytics to help companies better protect against future attacks. by extensive experimentation (Varian 2010). most agencies almost surely lag behind the best private sector firms . One goal appears to be to encourage not just researchers but software developers to develop tools or applica. http://web. and FRED is a similar service made available by the Federal Reserve. Many government agencies are increasingly smart about using data analytics to improve their operations and services. suggesting serious problems with the grading process. 6 In some cases. For example. although it does not appear that many have been built so far. What’s interesting is that the cyber terrorists caused real fear to Sony by publicly releasing internal enterprise data — including salaries. and hundreds of other types of data. information on metropolitan transit and electricity consumption.[improving economic decision-making] Parekh 15 (Jan. wifi hotspots. subways. Big Data Terrorism The recent Sony hacking case is notable because it appears to potentially be the first state-sponsored act of cyber-terrorism where a company has been successfully threatened under the glare of the national media. the government collects a great deal of data that would be useful for guiding policy decisions but has not been utilized very effectively. I think 2015 may well be the year we start to see the true potential (and real risks) of how big data can transform our economy and our lives . The federal government has undertaken a similar exercise with the website Data. Big Data Becomes a Civil Liberties Issue Data-driven decision tools are not only the domain of businesses but are now helping Americans make better decisions about the school.year correlation. “The Data Revolution and Economic Analysis” National Bureau of Economics. It also is routinely criticized for spending money ineffectively.edu/~jdlevin/Papers/BigData. and face challenges of both infrastructure and personnel needs. companies are using data-driven software to find and hire the best employees or choose . doctor or employer that is best for them. such as from drone flights and communications monitoring. “How Big Data will Transform our Economy and Our Lives in 2015” http://techcrunch.to. crime statistics. Jonathan Levin is Professor of economics at Stanford and a writer for the National Bureau of Economics.Gov that has made available several hundreds of thou. I’ll leave it to the pundits to argue whether Sony’s decision to postpone releasing an inane farce was prudent or cowardly.tions that would be built on the underlying data.

But what happens when algorithms encroach on people’s privacy. gender or age — even inadvertently? Our schools.which customers to focus on. fairness and anti-discrimination. The public sector is an important source of data that private companies use in their products and services. Take Climate Corporation. including satellite photography. Open access to weather data powers the company’s insurance products and Internet software. Or take Zillow as another example. for instance. especially as people become more aware of the potential encroachment on their privacy and civil liberties? Open Government Data Expect the government to continue to make government data more “liquid” and useful – and for companies to put the data to creative use. and get used to make decisions based on their race. their lifestyle choices and their health. Will privacy and consumer protection keep up with the fast-moving world of big data’s reach. tax assessment data and economic statistics to provide potential buyers a more dynamic and informed view of the housing market. The successful real estate media site uses federal and local government data. . which helps farmers manage risk and optimize their fields. companies and public institutions all have rules about privacy. with government enforcement as the backstop.

Such uniquely 21st-century problems demand 21st-century thinking. to take into account the fine-grained details of societal interactions . rapid urban growth spurred by the industrial revolution had created urgent social and environmental problems . The ability to track. Alex Pentland is a computer science pioneer. Cities responded by building centralized networks to deliver clean water. We need to go deeper.” “The Data-Driven Society” ebsco host //HS) By the middle of the 19th century. to enable commerce. feeding and housing a population set to grow by two billion people while simultaneously preventing the worst impacts of global warming. efficient and affordable health care. we face a host of new challenges -. political upsets. and more. Digital technology enables us to study billions of individual exchanges in which people trade ideas.2NC Turns Case Using big data is the only way to solve the modern impacts. Yet many economists and social scientists still think about social systems using Enlightenment-era concepts such as markets and classes -. MIT Professor.turns the case Pentland 13 (October. and oft cited author of computer science writings. energy and safe food.financial crashes. But first we need to fully appreciate the power of big data and build a framework for its proper use. and to provide access to health care and energy. money.that were previously mysterious. . In addition. The tool known as big data gives us the means to do that. facilitate transportation and maintain order . We are already finding that we can begin to explain phenomena -. Today these century-plus-old solutions are increasingly inadequate . Many of our cities are jammed with traffic.most notably.simplified models that reduce societal interactions to rules or algorithms while ignoring the behavior of individual human beings. He created the MIT Media lab and has been called by Forbes one of the “7 most powerful data scientists in the world. functioning governments. My research laboratory at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is using computers to look at mathematical patterns among those exchanges . flu pandemics -. Our political institutions are deadlocked. goods or gossip. Data analytics can give us stable financial systems. predict and even control the behavior of individuals and groups of people is a classic example of Promethean fire: it can be used for good or ill.

The first. http://web. which can offer an advantage in terms of ‘nowcasting’. Besides the characteristics of sources of Big Data which make them suitable for economists. All these concerns suggest that Big Data is a potential goldmine for economists and that there may be a demonstrable opportunity cost for many econo. More granular and comprehensive data can help to pose new sorts of questions and enable novel research designs that can inform us about the consequences of different economic policies and events . However. and Meyer 2014 (July-December 2014. including increasingly granular sources such as loyalty card data and online pur. “The Data Revolution and Economic Analysis” National Bureau of Economics. many economists see a sharp distinction between predictive modeling and causal inference. in terms of the scope and quality of the results. We will provide some examples below that illustrate this potential. there is a considerable amount of Big Data found within the traditional territory of economics: financial transactions of all kinds. it would mean something of a shift away from the single covariate causal effects framework that has dominated much of empirical research over the last few decades.stanford. this complexity presents an econo. following Erik Brynjolffson (M.viewed 10 May 2013)) increases their power in terms of understanding individual actions. in terms of advancing the discipline. Assistant Professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.sagepub. or at least are interdependent in certain defined ways. First. a viewing method for HTML formats. while their granularity (a characteristic Michael Zhang. http://bds. Big Data analysis demands technical skills in terms of statistics and coding which are part of the standard training for most economists.tion that data points are not interdependent.ous characteristics of Big Data clearly make it an important resource for economics . “Emerging Practices and Perspectives on Big Data Analysis in Economics: Bigger and Better or more of the Same?” Big Data and Society. and as a result.learning statistical tools.the only question is how big it can grow in the future Taylor. and the rewards of solving such problems. Linnet Taylor is a research fellow at the University of Amsterdam’s International Development Center. More generally. Big Data has clear benefits for economics. The main one is the unstructured nature of such data and the complexity of the linkages often contained within it.metric challenge in terms of untangling this dependence structure and understanding the data. for example per. Zhang. Einav and Levin (2013) also point out some drawbacks which may have led to economists’ comparative reluctance to adopt Big Data so far . the methods used. As Einav and Levin point out.chases. such data often involve aspects of human behaviour which have previously been difficult to observe . statistical learning approaches have little to contribute. Einav and Levin (2013) have pointed out three of these main character. terms ‘nano.istics. She focuses on the use of new internet data and the surrounding public policy. effect will be to allow better measurements of economic effects and outcomes.com/content/spbds/1/2/2053951714536877. Third. As one example.pdf //HS) The lack of a clear adoption of terminology is not surprising in a new and still emerging area. inter. Eric Meyer is a web designer who has been working with the internet since 1993. labour market data. The second relates to the scale of the data: the large size of the datasets becoming available resolves the statistical problem of limited observations and makes analysis more powerful and potentially more accurate.lations is part of a continuum of such challenges faced by economists as data sources have become larger and more complex over time. Our view is that the distinction is not always so sharp. or identifying economic trends as they are occurring . A less obvious possibility is that new data may end up changing the way economists approach empirical questions and the tools they use to answer them. there are also certain ways in which economists are well suited to being users of Big Data.pdf //HS) We now take up the question of how the data revolution might affect economic research. Why is this less obvious? To begin. that Big Data sources are frequently available in real-time. Jonathan Levin is Professor of economics at Stanford and a writer for the National Bureau of Economics. Schroeder. are potentially significant. Perhaps most importantly.mists in not engaging with this type of . The econometric challenge of working with Big Data using statistical techniques appropriate for entire popu. He focuses virtual reality technology and e-science.full.sonal connections (such as those within Facebook) or geolocation (such as the place from which a ‘tweet’ was sent via Twitter).mining techniques described earlier.data’. and most obvious. Ralph Schroeder is a Program Director and Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Internet Institute. which upset the usual econometric assump. and detailed population data.Generic Econ Data is the future for economic analysis Einav and Levin 2014 (Liran Einav is a professor of economics at Stanford and a writer for the National Bureau of Economics. even if vari.edu/~jdlevin/Papers/BigData. and we think that this type of work will be increasingly used in economics as big data sets become available for researchers and as empirical economists gain greater familiarity and comfort with machine. He is most known for being the pioneer of CSS. and the training of empirical economists . we consider whether economists might embrace some of the statistical data.

research. there are also limits to the uses of Big Data in economics. Yet. as we shall see. and these shed interesting light on its role among the social sciences and beyond .

We sell large volumes of a wide range of products at low prices..com/insights/business_technology/big_data_the_next_frontier_for_innovation //HS) . we estimate that big data levers have the potential to create an annual 0. including retail. Marketing levers can affect 10 to 30 percent of operating margin. In contrast. because they can obtain information about the availability of inventory before visiting a store. Instead of receiving information about goods and services from sales teams or advertisements. Michael Chui also assisted in leading the research. We also estimated potential productivity gains at the industry level. “Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation. even if estimating the value of this consumer believe that the use of large datasets will continue to transform the face of retail . many of the marketing and merchandising levers we have described will improve their shopping experience . the econ. Chui is a partner of McKinsey Global Institute where he specializes in research on the impact of information tech and innovation on businesses. online retailers such as Amazon. including obstacles related to technology. Some subsectors will have already pulled big data levers more than others. Competition.com/insights/business_technology/big_data_the_next_frontier_for_innovation //HS) We have estimated the potential impact of each of the 16 big data levers we have described. or use price comparison services). This estimate does not take into account the fact that the use of big data will be a boon to consumers through the economic surplus that they will capture and is therefore conservative.g. these gains will largely shift value within the industry rather than increasing its total size. see the appendix. Chui is a partner of McKinsey Global Institute where he specializes in research on the impact of information tech and innovation on businesses. In recent decades. This project was led by James Manyika. the econ. If we look solely at efficiency. “Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation. for more on our methodology. The overall winners should be consumers.mckinsey. we do not predict what value the sector will actually capture because this largely depends on actions taken by retailers to overcome a number of barriers.Retail Module **Need retail key to overall economy?** **Probably need some answers to alt causes Big Data will have a massive growth impact on retail and in turn the rest of the US economy. the director of McKinsey Global Institute and a former leader within technology companies where he focused on innovation. To put that in context. and society. and Groupon are redefining what retail can mean. even if retail consumers do not spend more money overall . The total potential impact of individual big data levers varies significantly across retail subsectors (Exhibit 24). partly explaining this variation. Manyika et al 11 (May 2011. In recent years.. academic research has estimated that IT investments in the entire US economy. This should increase the real value added of the retail sector . and Productivity” McKinsey Global Institute. For instance. as well as external factors such as whether consumers are receptive to having their behavior data mined and the ability of suppliers to leverage some of the same levers in negotiations. consumers find the information they need from their fellow shoppers and find what they want to buy via electronic marketplaces. Michael Chui also assisted in leading the research. Consumers will find better products to match their needs (e. IT and data that was used to optimize supply chains helped create the category of big-box retailers that surplus is difficult. and interviews with experts. Government choices over big data spill over to the private sector Manyika et al 11 (May 2011. and strategy. and society. Competition. While we estimate the total potential value that big data can enable . price transparency levers will tend to cut prices and squeeze margins. McKinsey Global Institute is a research contracting firm. using a combination of our own case studies. While individual players can use big data levers to grow their top lines and operating margins. http://www. McKinsey Global Institute is a research contracting firm. and strategy. merchandising levers can affect 10 to 40 percent. This project was led by James Manyika. growth. Firms that are relatively better at deploying big data levers will experience significant gains at the expense of those that do not execute as well. who will benefit from receiving goods better suited to their needs. growth. http://www. through the high-growth 1990s added 1 to 2 percent to the compound annual growth rate of US productivity. eBay.g. academic and industry research. and culture.5 percent acceleration in productivity through 2020. consumers that choose to opt-in to marketing programs that use big data to better target offers) and spend less time looking for those products at the right price (e. talent.mckinsey. and Productivity” McKinsey Global Institute. and supply chain levers can have a 5 to 35 percent impact (Exhibit 23). opting to take a conservative approach to such estimates by applying only the effects of levers in operations and supply chains that reduce costs (see the appendix for detail on our methodology). the director of McKinsey Global Institute and a former leader within technology companies where he focused on innovation.

where. Depending on the jurisdiction and purpose. for instance. But many people remain uninformed about how. will draw increasingly pronounced concerns about privacy and security in the era of big data. Across the globe. especially personal location data and electronic data generated by their use of the Internet.If the retail industry is to realize the potential value from the use of big data. both the industry and government will have to deal with a number of important barriers . Germany. It is certainly the case that consumer attitudes toward the use of their personal information. and to what extent this information is used in targeted advertising and other marketing strategies. we observe the emergence of different concepts of electronic privacy. Policy makers will make choices about how to regulate the industry’s use of information about consumers—policy choices that will have profound implications for many other industries that. and large players would benefit from having a single country or industry standard. Some definitions are more general than others. there are different definitions of personally identifiable information (PII)—what counts legally as information that identifies a person for a variety of purposes. has limited the use of the Street View function of Google maps. in common with retail. are changing rapidly. .

Big data could explode the economic value of the manufacturing sector Manyika et al 11 (May 2011. For example. and better meeting customer needs through more precisely targeted products and effective promotion and distribution. and strategy. the econ. advanced manufactured products such as computers became much more powerful. “Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation. and society. Li and Fung. companies can also manage demand planning across extended enterprises and global supply chains. Michael Chui also assisted in leading the research. growth. each of which . manufacturing companies racked up impressive annual productivity gains because of both operational improvements that increased the efficiency of their manufacturing processes and improvements in the quality of products they manufactured. and strategy. “Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation.500 suppliers. and the barriers that have to be overcome to capture that value. the director of McKinsey Global Institute and a former leader within technology companies where he focused on innovation. For example. Using realtime data. and Productivity” McKinsey Global Institute. Chui is a partner of McKinsey Global Institute where he specializes in research on the impact of information tech and innovation on businesses. describe the range of potential impact. Overall. Beyond pushing productivity. This project was led by James Manyika. McKinsey Global Institute is a research contracting firm. from basic manufacturing subsectors such as consumer goods and food.mckinsey. extended value chains that are becoming prevalent in manufacturing and to meet customers’ needs in innovative and more precise ways. manufacturing. For example. build. Manufacturers also optimized their global footprints by placing sites in. big data can help manufacturers reduce product development time by 20 to 50 percent and eliminate defects prior to production through simulation and testing. Michael Chui also assisted in leading the research. growth. Efficiency gains arise across the value chain. These gains will come from improved efficiency in design and production. low-cost regions. and Productivity” McKinsey Global Institute. big data provides a means to achieve dramatic improvements in the management of the complex. the director of McKinsey Global Institute and a former leader within technology companies where he focused on innovation. The ability to track the use of products at a micro-level has also made possible monetization models that are based not on the purchase of a product but on services priced by their usage. further improvements in product quality. and distribute products since the dawn of the computer era. to advanced manufacturing subsectors such as automotive and aerospace. arguably more than most other sectors. and feeds operation data directly to service centers. alerts drivers of maintenance needs based on the actual condition of the car. Sensor data have made possible innovative aftersales services. orchestrates a network of more than 7. such as through collaborative product development based on customer data. while reducing defects and rework within production plants. The real output value of products is increased by improving their quality and making products that better match customers’ needs. But despite such advances. We drew upon global best practice examples of the use of big data to identify seven levers of value creation. In the 1990s. We believe that big data can underpin another substantial wave of gains. big data enables innovative services and even new business models in manufacturing. faces the challenge of generating significant productivity improvement in industries that have already become relatively efficient. adopting information technology and automation to design. For example.com/insights/business_technology/big_data_the_next_frontier_for_innovation //HS) For manufacturers. opportunities enabled by big data can drive productivity gains both through improving efficiency and the quality of products (Exhibit 26). as we have described. Chui is a partner of McKinsey Global Institute where he specializes in research on the impact of information tech and innovation on businesses. or outsourcing production to. http://www.mckinsey. Competition.com/insights/business_technology/big_data_the_next_frontier_for_innovation //HS) The manufacturing sector was an early and intensive user of data to drive quality and efficiency . and society. automatically calling for help when sensors indicate trouble. global.Manufacturing The manufacturing sector has already seen some benefits of big data but potential for growth is still strong Manyika et al 11 (May 2011. The ability to exchange data across the extended enterprise has also enabled production to be unbundled radically into highly distributed networks. http://www. This project was led by James Manyika. a supplier to apparel retailers. from reducing unnecessary iterations in product development cycles to optimizing the assembly process. BMW’s ConnectedDrive offers drivers directions based on real-time traffic information. Competition. We base these conclusions on an examination of multiple manufacturing subsectors encompassing both discrete and process manufacturing. the econ. McKinsey Global Institute is a research contracting firm.

manufacturing has been the key to prosperity. new data intermediaries or data businesses could begin to emerge. another 13%. and technological improvements in that machinery. as when an SME makes the semiconductors that then go to make more SMEs.” Until the 1950s. Even health. To sum up: the health of the economy is critically dependent on the health of the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing sector is critical to economic power Rynn 11 (May 23. Paul Krugman recently argued that “manufacturing is one of the bright spots of a generally disappointing recovery. and there are signs — preliminary. 2011. 3. not services A country can’t trade services for most of its goods. no sustained. thus generating huge surpluses. leading to the explosive economic growth of the last two hundred years. capitalize on the economic value of data that describes the flow of goods around the world. to the rise of the US. it isn’t enough simply to have factories and produce more goods. because it couldn’t trade for goods. According to the WTO. a building. the very wealthy. 80% of world trade among regions is merchandise trade — that is. are the main drivers of economic growth. iPhones. D in political science and is the author of Manufacturing Green Prosperity: The Power to Rebuild the American Middle Class. is the act of using medical equipment and drugs (all figures from 2010. 4. That is. even finance is dependent on manufacturing. 2. 5. then. or the military then appropriate for their own wealth and power. the crucial question is: Why is manufacturing so important? 1. we now produce less than China’s 16%. we can kiss our status as a great economic power goodbye. as Erik Reinert shows in his book “How Rich Countries Got Rich…and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor.” From the rise of England in the 19th century. A “post-industrial” economy is really a pre-industrial economy — that is. you have to know how to make the machinery that makes the goods. such as cars. The cycle of rise and decline usually runs like this: figures out how to take advantage of the current technologies of production. the US had produced about 50%. Jon Rynn has a Ph. Manufacturing is the foundation of global “Great Power ” The most powerful nations in the world — the “Great Powers” — are those that control the bulk of the global production of manufacturing technology. These technologies reproduce themselves. which either the financial forces . Just consider the explosion of the Internet. but are used to produce yet more machine tools. A turnaround in the attention of more perceptive economists and a turnaround in manufacturing may be in the works.” achieves. Retail and wholesale. long-term economic growth. they kill the goose that is laying the golden eggs. But before that. big data plays a pivotal role in ensuring that these ecosystem webs function well and continue to evolve. to the newly industrializing countries like Korea. You can’t export the experience of using something. which makes up about 8% of the economy. Services are dependent on manufactured goods Services are mostly the act of using manufactured goods. They could. I f in the extreme case an economy was composed only of services. is to make the “means of production. Some of the most powerful impacts of big data apply across entire manufacturing ecosystems.” He points out that the gap between what we sell and what we buy has been improving. The technological and productive potential of machine tools and SMEs affect each other as well. Manufacturing creates some clever society . Finance involves the redirection of surplus resources that the nonfinancial sector of the economy produces. but hopeful.focuses on delivering a very specific part of the supply chain. the trade deficit in goods for the United States between 2000 and 2010 was 7 trillion dollars. My own research shows that about 80% of the world’s production of factory machinery has been controlled by what we would consider the “Great Powers. nonetheless — that a sustained comeback may be under way. Indeed. Manufacturing has been the path to development It has been the strategic achievement of rich nations over the last several hundred years to create a high-quality manufacturing sector in order to develop national wealth and power . No machinery industries. Japan and the USSR in the 20th. “Six Reasons Manufacturing is Central to the Economy” The Roosevelt Institute.rooseveltinstitute. Manufacturing is the most important cause of economic growth The growth of manufacturing machinery output. which is the act of buying and selling a “real” or physical asset. allegedly becoming “post-industrial. http://www. and the like — all made possible by a small subset of production machinery called semiconductor-making equipment (SME). for example.org/new-roosevelt/six-reasons-manufacturing-central-economy //HS) Without a robust revival in the manufacturing sector. which itself is dependent on other forms of production machinery. Global trade is based on goods. Taiwan.” As the machinery industries go. poor. or when a machine tool makes the metal components that not only go into other pieces of machinery. even without adjusting for inflation. which make up about 11% of the economy. only 20% of world trade is in services. and now China. This must be set against a background of a manufacturing decline in the United States of historic dimensions. The key to power. then it would be very poor. As we have documented. value-added). Germany. are the act of buying and selling manufactured goods. This closely matches the trade percentages that even the US. which means that indirectly. such as the machine tools that grind the lenses they use or the alloys of metal the metalmaking industries output. The dollar is also vulnerable in the long-term. The same goes for real estate. so goes Great Power. 6. its currency would be worth very little.

investments. As the demand for manufacturing grows. It’s time for the United States to wake up before it’s too late and rebuild the foundation of a strong. The backward linkage (or multiplier effect) shows how much additional output is generated by a dollar’s worth of final demand for each industry.2% of its economy.jobs Most jobs. according to the the OECD. eradicating the Great Recession.themanufacturinginstitute. And according to the Economic Policy Institute. For an industry with a larger backward linkage. many functions previously completed within manufacturing companies—from back-office operations and accounting to some types of logistics—are now contracted to other service providers and hence not counted as part of the manufacturing sector. long-term. prosperous. Every dollar in final sales of manufactured products supports $1. considering the other five reasons that manufacturing is central to the economy. A mapping of relationships in the economy reveals that manufacturing has the highest backward linkage among the major sectors .2%. “Manufacturing’s Multiplier Effect is Stronger than Other Sectors’” The Manufacturing Institute. . have a powerful and positive impact on economic development. and in the US manufacturing accounted for 13. energy. it in turn spurs the creation of jobs. we would have 10 million more. Manufacturing has the greatest effect on the economy out of any sector The Manufacturing Institute 2014 (April 2014. If we were equal with Germany.org/Research/Facts-About-Manufacturing/Economy-and-Jobs/Multiplier/Multiplier. the Japanese manufacturing sector was 20.4%. in Germany it was 23. construction. depend on manufacturing — and reviving the sector could provide tens of millions of new jobs. and innovations elsewhere. http://www. well paying jobs. A measure of the breadth of the supply chain is the backward linkage in the input-output structure of the economy. Using 2005 figures. therefore. Manufacturing plants. directly or indirectly.33 in output from other sectors —this is the largest multiplier of any secto r. middle class economy. Additionally. each manufacturing job supports almost three other jobs in the economy. Thus. if the US had the same percentage as Japan. and services from a broad array of supplying industries .aspx) Manufacturing is complex and its production processes increase the demand for raw materials. there are six solid reasons that we need to rebuild the manufacturing sector of the United States. we would have 7 million more high-quality. In 2005. The Manufacturing Institute is a global group seeking the development of manufacturing talent. growth in its output induces more production — both directly and indirectly—from other sectors. That makes sense.

Familiar residents can locate friends.g. Entrepreneurs will develop many of these services and applications. We believe that our estimates of the potential surplus that will accrue to customers are conservative because they do not include additional sources of utility such as improvements in user convenience. Individuals and organizations around the world will share in the potential value of personal location data—nowhere more dramatically than in emerging markets where the already very large number of mobile phones generating such data is increasing so rapidly. and society. and geo-targeted advertising. the econ. http://www. The likely value that will accrue to providers will be dwarfed by the benefits that customers—both individuals and businesses—will enjoy because of proliferating location-based applications. more than 70 percent will be the consumer surplus obtained from time and fuel saved by using GPS navigation systems (including those with real-time traffic information) and the use of mobile LBS applications (difference between willingness to pay and the cost of applications). We believe that by 2020. and a long tail of specialized applications will combine to offer substantial total additional value. Chui is a partner of McKinsey Global Institute where he specializes in research on the impact of information tech and innovation on businesses. “Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation. This project was led by James Manyika. the director of McKinsey Global Institute and a former leader within technology companies where he focused on innovation. Personal location data-enabled services such as user ranking applications (e. Of this. and entertainment . and the shortest driving route. greatly lowering the barriers to entry for innovative new players. and Productivity” McKinsey Global Institute. for instance. Unfamiliar travelers. we expect innovative new uses of personal location data and business models to continue to emerge.mckinsey. transparency.com/insights/business_technology/big_data_the_next_frontier_for_innovation //HS) Our detailed analysis of the major applications of personal location data today and in the near future finds that. given the fact that the application store model for mobile devices is already providing ready sales and marketing channels. the evening’s most popular nightspots. This additional value is likely to come primarily from sales of navigation hardware and revenue from LBS. and strategy. in ten years’ time. these applications have the potential to create value of $100 billion or more for service providers alone. . our estimates size the potential impact of only a few applications. Furthermore. Competition. Yelp) offer users all of these benefits. mobile LBS premiums..Personal data Personal data has enormous economic potential Manyika et al 11 (May 2011. growth. Michael Chui also assisted in leading the research. personal location applications will create as much as $700 billion in value for users (Exhibit 31).. The remaining 30 percent of the total accruing to customers will be additional value obtained by businesses that make use of location data-enabled levers such as marketers’ return on geo-targeted mobile advertising. McKinsey Global Institute is a research contracting firm. can quickly find shops and eateries they might favor. Creativity and innovation will shift the value potential upward from our present estimates .

we can find insights and enable proactive communication and guidance to Pratt & Whitney's services network and customers. and deliver better insight into flight operational data. The insight will help Pratt & Whitney customers with asset maintenance alerts. and systems acquired then are in need of replacement. Aerospace manufacturer Pratt & Whitney is teaming up with IBM to use its Big Data technology to analyse data from more than 4. The Aerospace Industries Association released a report in May 2011 that takes a historical look at spending in the investment accounts and the ebb and flow of spending since the 1970s. but America’s military forces are using their equipment at many times the programmed rates in the harsh conditions of combat. They face multiple challenges overcoming barriers to federal contracting and once they leave the contracting base. 18. helping to predict any discrepancies. also recommends 35 percent of the budget be devoted to modernization as a prudent and affordable level for supporting the force of today and the future. The 1980s defense build-up is now 25 years old. Solves cyber-war and military power NAW 10 [National Aerospace Week was established by the Aerospace Industries Association in 2010 as an opportunity for the aerospace and defense industry and its supporters. This is a concern that the Defense Department recognizes. Pratt & Whitney expects to increase its product's engine life by up to six years by using IBM's data analytics. 14.pdf//jweideman] However. The decade of 2010-2019 is the crucial time to reset. It will also help the company reduce its maintenance costs by 20%. Defense Investment: Finding the Right Balance. “Aerospace and Defense: Second to None” http://nationalaerospaceweek. With another round of acquisitions and consolidations imminent along with a projected decline in defense spending. they and their unique skills cannot be recovered. These small businesses are critical to the primes and to the government. we remain concerned about the fragility of the supplier base .000 commercial aircraft engines in order to predict the problems before they arise IBM's solution will be used to analyse the huge amount of data generated from aircraft engines. the Pentagon has reduced the number of weapons . The requirements identified in the 2010 QDR — for the United States to overmatch potential adversaries and to execute long-duration campaigns in coming years against increasingly capable potential opponents — will require complex and expensive aerospace capabilities. http://www. “Aerospace Manufacturer Uses IBM Big Data Tech to Improve Aircraft Engine Performance” Computer Business Review. Pratt & Whitney's president of Aftermarket. said: "By incorporating learnings from our military engines programmes where we are pushing the envelope in terms of monitoring capabilities. It concludes that our nation and its military members pay a large price when we decrease spending on procurement and research and development.cbronline. Along with our concern about the industrial base is the long-term issue of modernizing our military hardware.com/news/big-data/analytics/aerospace-manufacturer-uses-ibm-big-data-tech-to-improve-aircraft-engine-performance4321454 //HS) Accenture has partnered with GE Aviation to offer the airline company charts of fuel –efficient paths . " IBM's technology will help Pratt & Whitney broaden its current performance monitoring capabilities of more than 4. Not only are many of our systems reaching the end of their designed lives. Delaying modernization will make it even harder to identify and effectively address global threats in the future. CBR is the Computer Business Review. Matthew Bromberg. Since the end of the Cold War. " "This will enable us to accurately and proactively monitor the health of our customers' engines and give us further visibility to plan ahead for optimised fleet operations while reducing customers' costs. 2010. we will strengthen our commercial engine health analytics offering for customers. recapitalize and modernize our military forces. and teaming with IBM to integrate component and system health information.000 operational commercial engines. wearing out equipment prematurely. the supplier base remains particularly vulnerable.Aerospace Big data already has an astounding effect on the aerospace industry CBR 14 (Jul. a European publication aiming toward the elite of Business Technology." IBM GM of business analytics Alistair Rennie said: "By applying real time analytics to structured and unstructured data streams generated by aircraft engines. The report.org/wpcontent/uploads/2010/04/whitepaper.

S. Forty-nine military aircraft programs were underway in the 1950s. A large-scale attack on information networks could pose a serious economic threat. While the fiscal 2012 budget request is a reasonable target that takes into account funding needed to fight two wars. there are none—with the possible exception of a long-range bomber that is not yet approved for development. homeland. our industry is on the forefront of securing these networks and combating cyber attack. The American people also demand better security for the U. In partnership with the government. looking beyond the F35. but to ensure that a technology and manufacturing base exists to develop new ones. Defense modernization is not optional. impeding or preventing commerce conducted electronically. sound government policy is essential not only to maintain current capabilities. even disabling emergency communications links. for the first time in 100 years. Today. . among other capabilities. disrupting power grids. the pressure on the procurement and research and development budget is sure to increase in the future. and three in the 1990s. 5 ATM transactions. the United States had no manned military aircraft in design.systems it has bought and there are fewer new-start programs further and further apart. Inc. government is the only market for these technologies. This would affect not only 2011 Aerospace Industries Association of America. and give advance warning of natural disasters. At the same time. from gaining control of our borders to more effective law enforcement and disaster response. America must adapt its defenses to new kinds of threats. In 2010. It could even pose threats to American lives. seven in the 1980s. monitor critical facilities and unpatrolled borders. but commercial and governmental fund transfers and the just-in-time orders on which the manufacturing sector depends. In many cases. The aerospace industry provides the tools that help different forces and jurisdictions communicate with each other. interrupting the transfer of medical data. Therefore.

In the scientific domain. including Ohio State.jsp?arnumber=6527259 Since the Internet’s introduction. is one project that’s a testament to the promises of big data . Specifically. such as mutations related to cancer. and MRIs between stakeholders. the Human Genome Project. ISDN lines couldn’t handle much more than basic graphics. according to new research co-authored by an Ohio State economist.machine and machine-to-machine.ieee. Australia.4 By revealing the genetic origin of illnesses.Science Big data can cure and prevent disease Katina Michael. Associate professor in the School of Information Systems and Technology at the University of Wollongong. videos. both people-to. the Human Brain Project (EU. science research boosts the economy.2 More precisely. unlocking answers to Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s.humanbrainproject. In a study published this week in the journal Science. For instance. they examined spending at nine of the 15 universities that compose the Committee on Institutional Cooperation.press-office/2013/04/02/fact-sheet-brain-initiative). completed in 2003. In addition. by using telematics and telemetry devices in systems of systems . The results suggest that . Jeff Grabmeier. Advances in data storage and mining technologies make it possible to preserve increasing amounts of data generated directly or indirectly by users and analyze it to yield valuable new insights . CT scans. it can bridge the gap between what people want to do and what they actually do as well as how they interact with others and their environment . www. Of even greater importance are e-health networks that allow for data merging and sharing of high-resolution images in the form of patient x-rays.osu. New South Wales. For example.. Consequently. and interactive maps as well as associated metadata such as geolocation information and time and date stamps. Along with spurring other benefits. et al. in addition to mapping the activity of about 100 billion neurons in the hope of Other types of big data can be studied to help solve scientific problems in areas ranging from climatology to geophysics to nanotechnology.edu/economic-impact-of-research/ The scientific research conducted at Ohio State and other universities isn’t often viewed as a short-term economic stimulus program – but it does fulfill that role along with its many long-term benefits.3 This information is useful to government agencies as well as private compa-nies to support decision making in areas ranging from law enforcement to social services to homeland security . efforts. Twenty years ago. in a quest to construct a supercomputer simulation of the brain’s inner workings.html) and the US BRAIN Initiative (www. we’ve been steadily moving from text-based communications to richer data that include images. http://oncampus.1 Big data can expose people’s hidden behavioral patterns and even shed light on their intentions. but today’s high-speed communication networks enable the transmission of storage-intensive data types . “Study documents economic impact of federal research spending at universities”. It’s particularly of interest to applied areas of situational awareness and the anticipatory approaches required for near-real-time secondary uses of patient data could lead to the discovery of cures for a wide range of devastating diseases and the prevention of others.whitehouse. April 2014. researchers used a new data set to examine the short-term economic impact of federally funded research spending in 2012. smartphone users can take high-quality photographs and videos and upload them directly to social networking sites via Wi-Fi and 3G or 4G We’ve also been steadily increasing the amount of data captured in bidirectional interactions. Senior Director of Research and Innovation Communications.eu/vision.org/stamp/stamp. 2013. consumer purchasing trends to better target marketing. researchers are now embarking on two major discovery. near-real-time data from mobile phones could provide detailed characteristics about shoppers that help reveal their complex decision-making processes as they walk through malls.gov/the. “Big Data: New Opportunities and New Challenges” http://ieeexplore. companies can study cellular networks.

co-author of the study and professor of economics at Ohio State. “We’re all familiar with how science has improved our lives over time through better health.” Whitacre said. “Science is productive work. said the results provide additional proof of the value of federally funded research at universities.” Weinberg said. “But this study offers proof of how science funding helps us here and now by boosting our economy. said Bruce Weinberg. Caroline Whitacre.federal funding of research has a wide impact on the local and national economy. the study found. the nine CIC institutions spent almost $1 billion of research expenditures on goods and services from U. companies both large and small. It employs people who conduct the research and people who produce the equipment and materials that science uses.” . In 2012. vice president for research at Ohio State. new technology and many other benefits.S.

Amplify). Deven Parekh is a writer for TechCrunch. From Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) to adaptive learning technologies that personalize the delivery of instructional material to the individual student. and with student performance failing to meet the expectations of policy makers. In the not-too-distant future. Big data analytics has the potential to disrupt the way we practice health care and change the way we think about our wellness. 2015. “big data” pushes the boundaries of what is possible in health care. . Health IT is already a booming space for investment. “How Big Data will Transform our Economy and Our Lives in 2015” http://techcrunch. companies are making bold investments in digital products that do more than just push content online.Healthcare Big Data is revolutionizing effective medicare Parekh 15 (Jan. Both sides recognize that digital learning. 2015 will undoubtedly be big data’s break-out year. Expect more from this sector in 2015. and your actual health.2 trillion spent annually on public K-12 and higher education. but clinical decisions are still mostly based on guidelines. how the average patient reacts to a particular treatment regime generically isn’t that relevant. accountability and performance. After all. educational technology thrives on data. educators and employers are still debating how to fix American education. Some reformers hope to apply market-based models. Houghton Mifflin. is an unavoidable trend. inside and outside the classroom. with an emphasis on testing. others hope to elevate the teaching profession and trigger a renewed investment in schools and resources.com/2015/01/02/the-year-of-big-data-is-upon-us/ //HS) Personalized Medicine Even as we engage in a vibrant discussion about the need for personal privacy . Pearson) to some you didn’t (Cengage. Digital Learning.” these two aligned trends — the digitization of the health care system and the introduction of wearable devices — are quietly revolutionizing health and wellness . 2. Whether we label it “precision medicine” or “personalized medicine. From names that you grew up with (McGraw Hill. I want the single best course of treatment (and outcome) for me. doctors will be able to create customized drugs and treatments tailored for your genome. not on hard data. Now that we’ve moved past mere adoption to implementation and utilization. they’re touting products that fundamentally change how and when students learn and how instructors evaluate individual student progress and aid their development. your activity level. Everywhere With over $1.

wind power and other forms of renewable energy that can replace oil and fossil fuel. rising temperatures Consequences: Drinking water shortage. we are already using 2 to 3 times more of the Earth’s natural resources than what is sustainable. An estimated 18 million acres of forests are destroyed each year .a shift to efficient usage is key to long term human survival Larson. Olsen. Half of the world’s forest has been cleared. 12 (2012.2 billion and growing. Forests are the habitats of millions of species.5%. “Consequences of Depletion of Natural Resources” http://www. A desolate. Food Shortage. Deforestation contributes 12 to 17% of global greenhouse gas emissions annually. Our Natural Resources are running out What are the top 3 natural resources being depleted and what are the consequences? 1. If we do not act now. and Victor Emanouilov are environmental activists who run the website theworldcounts. Let’s do the math. 2. Water What will we drink without water? Only 2. 70% is frozen (2).Extinction of species and loss of biodiversity. There are substitutes for oil but nothing can replace our drinking water. Illegal logging. Causes: Industrial boom. (3) Causes: Increased irrigation. we will see the consequences of depletion of natural resources – and it’s not going to be pretty.theworldcounts. Causes: Urbanization. manufactured. dry Earth is not a fun place to live. (1) Earth’s total resources are only good for 2 billion people at the current demand. Possibly help push the transition to green energy with reduced CO2 emissions and pollution! 3. Consequences: Soil erosion. increased use in agriculture. Oil Nothing can be moved. mined or harvested without the liquid fuels that we get from petroleum. Karsten Olsen. and it is obvious that the result is a negative. 70% of the available fresh water that remains in used in agriculture.com/stories/consequences_of_depletion_of_natural_resources //HS) Are we using up more than what is available? Our current global population is 7. built. Flooding and drought . roads and infrastructure prevent water seepage in the soil. and Emanouilov. The depletion of our water resources is more serious that the current oil depletion. . Smaller economies. 20% in industry and only 10% is being used for human consumption.Natural Resource depletion Natural resource depletion is devastating the planet. Esben Larson. Increased population. They produce the oxygen we breathe. Agriculture.com. Higher prices. Subsistence Farming. Oil reserves are a non-renewable resource Oil accounts for 40% of all energy we use (4) EIA's International Energy Outlook 2013 shows that we have enough Oil to last for 25 years. planted.5% of the world’s total water volume is fresh water. Wastage. Forests Imagine a world without trees. Consequences: Less Transportation. The way we’re living. Of that 2.a site dedicated to bringing up to date facts on the Earth and the critical challenges that go along with it. (5) Trees absorb greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide. transported. Efforts are underway to develop cheaper and more sustainable energy such as solar power. Famine . Global Warming caused by the rise of greenhouse gases.

Economic slump More recently. due to the virus's effects. and because so many of us travel internationally – and so much faster – there’s a greater opportunity for pathogens to spread. and less freshwater extractions. Epidemics are certainly not new or unpredictable. killed 30%-60% of Europeans (80% of people in the south of France and Spain) and reduced global population from 450 million to around 350 million. and their photosynthetic working age men and women. over the next few columns I’ll be looking at technologies or events that have the potential to radically alter our planet. Peasants benefited from the scarcity of labour to gain better wages (often through revolt). agricultural and residential land reverting back to forest perhaps. world trade declined . But the sudden global explosion of an epidemic that infects a large number of the population – a pandemic – is harder to predict. which are traded internationally for bushmeat and pets. During the global financial crisis that began in 2008. If a virus can infect someone in one part of the world. The Guardian. Epidemiologists do not talk of whether there will be a new pandemic. and the last one was in 1968. which also disproportionately effects young. and Australian Geographic. land-use change. It means that diseases that infect animals have an unprecedented chance to jump across species to us . “Global Transformers: What if a Pandemic Strikes” BBC http://www. a bubonic plague during the Middle Ages caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. the Anthropocene (the Age of Man). it was 1. but this could be to the benefit of the environment. so we're overdue one. the global economic slump that resulted from incapacitation or deaths among the workforce melded into the dramatic effects of the war . and the trappings of our modern world economy would all suffer. But how will the Anthropocene unfold? Will we continue on a path of global climate change. resource depletion. Industry. for example. especially for those at the bottom of the ladder. annual emissions from the energy sector fell from 29. in 1918. which was more than the guns of World War I. The first one is a pessimistic one for humans: what if our species were hit by a global pandemic? In the Anthropocene we are encroaching on wild lands. We are also living in close proximity to domestic creatures like pigs. In some countries witch hunts rooting out the unknown cause of the plague resulted in minority groups being massacred. The impacts of this pandemic should have been especially severe because unusually. can give some idea of economic impact – in hard-hit sub-Saharan African countries the economies were estimated to be on average 22% smaller in 2010. more than half of those who died were young working-age adults . In a single province of China. aged 20-40 (most flu outbreaks kill the very old and young first). the Spanish Flu of 1918 killed one in five of those infected. We know a pandemic has occurred every 10-50 years for the past few centuries . Entire cities were depopulated. Pandemics. humans have been transforming the planet so profoundly that we are pushing it into a new geological era. However. including lepers and Jews. for example. Poverty in HIV-hit southern Africa means it has the lowest per capita greenhouse gas emissions on the planet. Few places are truly remote in the Anthropocene. chickens and ducks. The HIV/Aids epidemic. She has traveled around the world learning about different impacts of the Anthropocene and has written for several respectable outlets including BBC. But what if the pandemic was really severe – killing 80%-90% of our species? Aside from a few people with immunity. A new strain of influenza virus occurs every 1-2 years .3GT to 29GT. some 40-50 million people worldwide. Gaia Vince is a journalist who specializes in environmental and science issues. which kill a significant proportion of the population have acute and lasting effects on society.Pandemics A pandemic would be devastating to the human race Vince 13 (Jul. That could mean fewer industrial emissions. 11. but so did wars.8 billion – now it is more than 7 billion. Fewer people would mean less production of everything from food to plastics. Such a toll was socially transformative. biodiversity loss and population expansion? Or will something happen to push us off this trajectory – perhaps back into Holocene-like conditions? As I mentioned before.bbc. it is unlikely to be contained . but of when it will occur. few polluting journeys. So what would be the result of a global pandemic in the 21st Century? The world’s population in the Middle Ages was just a few hundred million. and their crops and cattle spread into unoccupied land giving most people a richer diet. food production. densely populated cities would be worst hit – small remote islands may be spared . The Black Death also had an environmental impact – loss of agricultural activity sucked so much carbon from the air it contributed to the regional cooling event known as the Little Ice Age. 2013. The numbers of people infected and killed could run into the hundreds of millions. bringing us closer to monkeys and apes. For plague survivors life generally improved. more than 4 million people died (90% of the population) in 1334 alone. The Black Death. Humans are so genetically alike that pathogens easily spread between individuals and across populations. And because we are living in greater numbers and densities than ever before. activity allowed forests to regrow.com/future/story/20130711-what-if-a-pandemicstrikes //HS) Over the past century.

Our species impact on the planet would diminish substantially as a result of our few numbers and global capability. at least. . It could mean an end to our advanced human civilization for a time.through quarantine.

The duration of housing price declines is quite long-lived.org/article/economic-and-fiscal-consequences-financialcrises //HS) Financial crises are historically associated with the “4 deadly D’s”: Sharp economic downturns follow banking crises.1 Figure 1. Equity price collapses average 55% over a downturn of about three and a half years.5%. There are well-known data issues in comparing unemployment rates across countries. On average. Figure 2 looks at increases in unemployment rates across the historical episodes. Ireland. do better in terms of unemployment than do the advanced economies (Figure 2). Finland (1991). but for many it has. Sweden (1991). “The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Financial Crises” Vox http://www. as widespread “underemployment” in many emerging markets and the vast informal sector are not captured in the official unemployment statistics. the employment consequences of financial crises are large in many cases. averaging roughly six years. and past crises are in light shading. the crisis does not lead to the deadliest D: default. there is precedent. with an increase in the unemployment rate of about 7 percentage points. The declines in real GDP are smaller for advanced economies than for emerging market economies. For the most fortunate countries. a A Even a cursory reading of the global financial press in the past few months would lead one to despair that the world economy is moving through dark and uncharted waters.voxeu. the duration of the downturn averages roughly two years. Notably. The unemployment rate rises an average of 7 percentage points over the down phase of the cycle. Central to the analysis is historical housing price data. Carmen Reinhart is a professor teaching about the international financial system at Harvard’s Kennedy School. and the UK. deteriorating economic conditions. the Philippines. measured from peak to trough. with the downturn phase of the cycle lasting 3. Real housing price declines average 35% stretched out over six years. Their crashes were 50 to 60%. As to real per capita GDP around banking crises. The housing price decline experienced by the US to date during the current episode (almost 28% according to the Case–Shiller index) is already more than twice that registered in the US during the Great Depression. the Philippines. Colombia and Hong Kong.” to use the phrase coined by Guillermo Calvo (2006). Ongoing crises are in dark shading. The cumulative decline in real housing prices from peak to trough averages 35. Past unemployment cycles and banking crises: Trough-to-peak percent increase in the unemployment rate (left panel) and years duration of downturn (right panel) Sources: Reinhart and Rogoff (2009a). Norway in 1899 and the US in 1929. Downturn It is now beyond contention that the present US financial crisis is severe by any metric. When foreign capital comes to a “sudden stop. the fiscal deficit worsens markedly. fiscal deficits worsen. including the current episode in the US and a number of other countries now experiencing banking crises. While none of the postwar episodes rivals the rise in unemployment of over 20 percentage points experienced by the US during the Great Depression. Figure 2. The “big five” advanced economy crises include episodes in Spain (1977). Real GDP per capita falls (from peak to trough) an average of over 9%. Famous emerging market episodes in our study include the 1997– 1998 Asian crisis (Hong Kong. Spain. with government revenues dragged down. Colombia (1998). Deficits Declining revenues and higher expenditures owing to a combination of bailout costs and higher transfer . There are significant adverse consequences of the financial crisis on government finances. Past and ongoing real house price cycles and banking crises: peak-to-trough price declines (left panel) and years duration of downturn (right panel) Source: Reinhart and Rogoff (2009a). and Japan (1992). unemployment rises for almost five years. Asset market collapses are deep and prolonged. The most severe real housing price declines were experienced by Finland. Malaysia. duration and characteristics of the economic slump following the crises traced out a few empirical regularities. Tax revenues shrink as the economic conditions deteriorate. Our main findings in that paper can be summarized as follows: Financial crises are protracted affairs. during the current cycle. Figure 1 looks at the bust phase in housing price cycles surrounding banking crises. which lasts on average over four years. Iceland and Austria have already experienced peak-to-trough equity price declines far exceeding the average of the historical comparison group. if somewhat shorter lived. The average historical decline in equity prices is 55. the average magnitude of the decline is 9. we focus on systemic financial crises. As illustrated in Reinhart and Rogoff (2009a). The depth. But. Hungary. and Argentina (2001).9%. rising an average of 86% in the major post–World War II episodes. The emerging markets. the equity price declines that accompany banking crises are far steeper than are housing price declines.Financial Crises Financial Crisis have long lasting adverse effects on the structures of economiesempirics Reinhart 9 (Jan. as debt piles up rating downgrades follow.4 years. I follow up with a sketch of how the crisis. and more precarious fiscal fundamentals impact sovereign risk in the aftermath of the crises episodes. In the remainder of this note. We therefore include two earlier historical cases for which housing prices are available. As a result. Iceland.3%. in fact. Indonesia. Norway (1987). Austria. Kenneth Rogoff and I examined the international experience with episodes of severe banking crises. 26 2009. A probable explanation for the more severe contractions in emerging market economies is that they are prone to abrupt reversals in the availability of foreign credit. and the real value of government debt tends to explode. deficits lead to debt. economic activity heads into a tailspin. In a recent paper. and Thailand). particularly those in Asia. The cycle from peak to trough in GDP is much shorter. only two years. Even excluding the extraordinary experience of Japan. I elaborate on these points. the average remains over five years. which can be difficult to obtain and are critical for assessing the present episode. Korea. There are profound declines in output and employment.

however. respectively. . The growth slowdown is amplified in world commodity markets. as many emerging markets face steep declines in their terms of trade.” The global nature of the present crisis will make it far more difficult for many countries to grow their way out through higher exports. Even recessions sparked by financial crises do eventually end. the current lull in sovereign defaults or restructurings in emerging markets will likely to come to an end. The much publicized bank bailout costs are typically second order. The episodes of Finland and Sweden stand out in this regard. the characteristic huge buildups in government debt are driven mainly by sharp falloffs in tax revenue. Ecuador has already defaulted and others are teetering on the brink. Figure 3. Cumulative increase in real public debt in the three years following the banking crisis Sources: Reinhart and Rogoff (2008b) and sources cited therein.Debt Figure 3 shows the rise in real government debt in the three years following a banking crisis. output and employment. more often than not. because sometimes steep output drops would complicate interpretation of debt–GDP ratios. We look at percentage increase in debt. Institutional Investor sovereign ratings cycles and banking crises: Peak-to-trough index declines (left panel) and years duration of downturn (right panel) Conclusions (not delusions) An examination of the aftermath of severe financial crises shows deep and lasting effects on asset prices. Unemployment rises and housing price declines extend out for five and six years. adversely impact sovereign creditworthiness. albeit almost invariably accompanied by massive increases in government debt . with an average debt rise of over 86%. rather than debt-to-GDP. The crises. If historical patterns hold. as reflected in a higher risk premia. do not appear to be “permanent. Downgrades (and sometimes default) Figure 4. The deterioration in government finances is striking. as the latter went from a pre-crisis surplus of nearly 4% of GDP to a whopping 15% deficit-to-GDP ratio. As Reinhart and Rogoff (2009b) note. particularly if the recovery process in the world’s largest economies is delayed. The effects.payments and debt servicing costs lead to a rapid and marked worsening in the fiscal balance.

AFF .

It’s everywhere. What a nightmare. https://www. biomics and a bunch of other –omics to the NSA’s database on writers who mention NSA in their blogs.” For one thing.” More dimensions raises the risk of finding spurious correlations — apparently important links that are actually just flukes. “Many statistical procedures either have unknown runtimes or runtimes that render the procedure unusable on large-scale data.” after all.org/blog/context/why-big-data-bad-science If Star Trek: The Next Generation were to return to TV in the 21st century. “The massive amounts of … data bring both opportunities and new challenges to data analysis. knowing the current state of a handful of attributes is all that is required to trigger a desired event. huge datasets are seductive.” Sounds bad. Lt. Here and there you can find warnings from some experts that Big Data has its downsides. is the biggest buzzword of the new millennium. Mike Kavis. they are “high dimensional. managing editor of Science News.sciencenews. Social networks. statistical inference methods and even the scientific method itself. Wringing intelligent insights from Big Data poses formidable challenges for computer science.com/sites/mikekavis/2015/02/25/forgetbig-data-small-data-is-driving-the-internet-of-things/ Despite what some may think. Are the patient’s blood sugar levels too high? Are the containers in the refrigerated truck at the optimal temperature? Does the soil have the right mixture of nutrients? Is the valve leaking? Optimizing these business processes can save companies millions of dollars through the analysis of relatively small datasets. November 2013. gatherers of large-scale data are often forced to turn to ad hoc procedures that … may have poor or even disastrous statistical properties.forbes. In many instances. Small data knows what a tracked object is doing. “Why Big Data is bad for science”. You see. of course. Standard statistical tests and computing procedures for drawing scientific inferences were designed to analyze small samples taken from large populations. from genomics. February 25. fulfilling their wildest dreams of data nirvana. “Scientific advances are becoming more and more data-driven . Most of them have been extolling all the research opportunities that massive databases offer.” “Big Data. 2015. Importance of big data is hype. financial networks. But Big Data provides extremely large samples that sometimes include all or most of a population. Computer scientists. big data is not a requirement for all IoT use cases. They invite aggressive analyses with the hope of extracting prizewinning scientific findings. Not only do Big Data samples take more time to analyze. Figuring out what Big Data means isn’t the same as interpreting little data. ecological networks all contain vast amounts of data that no longer overwhelm computer hard drive storage capabilities. in statistics-speak. If you want to understand why the object is . But collecting data and storing information is not the same as understanding it.” writes Michael Jordan of the University of California. The magnitude of the task can pose problems for implementing computing processes to do the tests. Berkeley. Scientists are now swimming in a superocean of endless information.” write statistician Jianqing Fan of Princeton University and colleagues.Small Data is Driving the Internet of Things”. “Forget Big Data.Big Data not Key Big Data does not solve any impacts. But perhaps that’s because everybody isn’t seeing the big data picture. Tom Siegfried. But sometimes Big Data In means Bad Data Out. they also typically contain lots of different information about every individual that gets sampled — which means. small data is of greater importance. http://www. But it gets worse. just as understanding flocking behavior in birds doesn’t explain the squawks of a lone seagull. have made the accumulation of all this big data possible by developing exceptional computing power and information storage technologies. scientists usually celebrate the availability of a lot of data. “Faced with this situation. Forbes’ Expert on the Cloud Computing Industry. Commander Data’s nickname would be “Big.

. then big data is what you seek.doing that. the next time someone tells you they are embarking on an IoT initiative. don’t assume that they are also embarking on a big data project. So.

including updating a PLM platform that can link across various IT systems. but there have been instances of successful data sharing. the director of McKinsey Global Institute and a former leader within technology companies where he focused on innovation. and Productivity” McKinsey Global Institute. So. McKinsey Global Institute is a research contracting firm. this level of training does not require years of dedicated study. http://www.Alt causes Talent shortages will restrict growth of the big data sector regardless of the plan Manyika et al 11 (May 2011. Some of the big data levers that we have discussed.000 to 190. will be costly. The standardization of interfaces will be critical and may require industry-wide partnerships to achieve . Nevertheless. To access such pools of data. McKinsey Global Institute is a research contracting firm. A notable example is the vendor-managed inventory .000 positions (Exhibit 4). fortunately. and strategy.mckinsey. are clearly at a disadvantage. To optimize production planning.mckinsey. “Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation. Many organizations will need to undertake organizational change programs to enforce the necessary shift —groups that have never shared their data will not start to do so simply because the IT systems are in place. Michael Chui also assisted in leading the research. Although our quantitative analysis uses the United States as illustration. and society. Chui is a partner of McKinsey Global Institute where he specializes in research on the impact of information tech and innovation on businesses. the long-term payoff should outweigh the cost. this type of talent is difficult to produce. IN addition to privacy. and strategy. Competition. The additional IT investment necessary may not be insignificant. It will be necessary to retrain a significant amount of the talent in place. This project was led by James Manyika. manufacturers will need to be thoughtful about establishing the right value propositions and incentives . and production. In addition. But we project that demand for deep analytical positions in a big data world could exceed the supply being produced on current trends by 140. achieving success will require strong leadership and a cultural shift to establish the mind-sets and behaviors to breech today’s silos . Other investments will be required to develop interfaces and protocols to share data effectively across the extended enterprise. To obtain the benefits of design-to-value. and the managers and analysts who know how to operate companies by using insights from big data.5 million additional managers and analysts in the United States who can ask the right questions and consume the results of the analysis of big data effectively. taking years of training in the case of someone with intrinsic mathematical abilities.com/insights/business_technology/big_data_the_next_frontier_for_innovation //HS) Much of the value that big data can create in manufacturing requires the access and varied use of data from multiple sources across an extended enterprise . the econ. Michael Chui also assisted in leading the research. the econ. So to fulfill the potential for value creation in this sector will require manufacturing companies to invest in IT as well as to make organizational changes. for instance. a company needs to have a free interchange of data among marketing and sales.hurdles challenge effective use of big data Manyika et al 11 (May 2011. The United States—and other economies facing similar shortages—cannot fill this gap simply by changing graduate requirements and waiting for people to graduate with more skills or by importing talent (although these could be important actions to take). with the caveat that some regions may be able to produce the supply that can fill talent gaps in other regions. Chui is a partner of McKinsey Global Institute where he specializes in research on the impact of information tech and innovation on businesses. http://www. guard customer data as proprietary. with multiple IT systems and overlapping and/or redundant data in different operations and divisions. we believe that the constraint on this type of talent will be global . the director of McKinsey Global Institute and a former leader within technology companies where he focused on innovation. Many retailers. we expect big data to rapidly become a key determinant of competition across sectors. data from various tiers of suppliers will be necessary. R&D. growth. and society. Furthermore. we project a need for 1. for instance. This project was led by James Manyika. growth. In the United States.com/insights/business_technology/big_data_the_next_frontier_for_innovation //HS) A significant constraint on realizing value from big data will be a shortage of talent. Strongly departmentalized companies. Many of the levers also require access to data from different players in the value chain. “Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation. particularly of people with deep expertise in statistics and machine learning. Competition. and Productivity” McKinsey Global Institute. Demand planning will require customer data from retailers. in many organizations.

Finally. . Despite the fact that the sector has been dealing with large datasets for two decades.model between some large retailers and consumer packaged goods companies. But wielding this lever will be possible only if consumers don’t object to suppliers monitoring how they use their products. Manufacturing companies will also need to build the capabilities needed to manage big data. as we discussed in our retail case study. One of the most promising ideas is using product sensor data to create finely targeted after-sales services or cross-selling. Manufacturers must therefore address privacy concerns proactively. there are privacy issues. Manufacturers will need not only to recruit new talent but also to remove organizational obstacles that today prevent such individuals from making maximum contributions. pioneered on a significant scale by Wal-Mart. where big data applications touch consumers and other end users. we know of oil refineries that still rely on a manager with spreadsheets to plan equipment maintenance and upgrades—work that can be accomplished more effectively with algorithms using data collected directly from machinery. There is a shortage of talent with the right experience for managing this level of complexity. For example. the rising volume of data from new sources along the supply chain and from end markets requires a new level of storage and computing power and deep analytical expertise if manufacturers are to harvest relevant information and insights. in collaboration with policy makers. and communicate with end users about choices and data transparency.

Michael Chui also assisted in leading the research. as economies of scale were muted. In contrast. Globally.com/insights/business_technology/big_data_the_next_frontier_for_innovation //HS) For their part. Many of these systems were installed decades ago . Companies should also actively seek out and implement bigdata-based innovations that will give them longterm competitive advantages. Adoption slowed. Higher tag prices hurt the business case for further RFID deployment. RFID reader reliability was far worse than originally expected. and analyzed. or scattered in different business units. RFID held the promise of providing a source of supply chain data that could be exploited using big data techniques. Another common obstacle for big data leaders is their legacy IT systems. the econ. Chui is a partner of McKinsey Global Institute where he specializes in research on the impact of information tech and innovation on businesses. Moreover. accessed. existing analytical and technical talent tends to be managed inefficiently. growth. many people still view IT as a back-office function and therefore as a large cost center rather than as an engine for business growth . and society. isolated in particular departments. These companies must make sure that business and IT leaders collaborate closely so that the use of big data underpins improvements in efficiency improvement and opportunities for creating value . Potentially as daunting for retail executives is the task of finding the talent that can execute big data levers. Attempts to upgrade and integrate these systems can be so difficult and plagued with the potential for introducing new system bugs that one retail expert complained that such an effort was “ much worse than starting from scratch. and per-tag costs did not decline as quickly as anticipated. Competition. RFID tags were in lower demand. Retailers with the foresight and intelligence to hire big data talent in sufficient numbers and then involve these hires in strategic decisions and planning will take the fullest advantage of valuecreation opportunities at the expense of their less nimble competitors. necessitating manual inputs to correct for reader errors. leading companies in their use of big data understand that their IT initiatives will be a crucial source of competitive advantage. the director of McKinsey Global Institute and a former leader within technology companies where he focused on innovation.mckinsey.” Even deploying new IT-enabled systems can present tremendous challenges . executives complain about the scarcity of highquality candidates for these jobs. These legacy systems usually include multiple silos of information generated in incompatible standards and formats so that they cannot be readily integrated. In the early days. “Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation. People with the requisite skills are rarely directly involved in strategic decision making and have little impact beyond answering highly specific questions . Manyika et al 11 (May 2011.A2: Retail module Multiple alternate barriers to effectiveness. retail executives must manage and overcome multiple barriers to realize the full potential of big data.even in the world of the plan they still have to be overcome. . and Productivity” McKinsey Global Institute. The first is the mind-set of employees and firms. well before today’s big data opportunities were considered or even possible. and strategy. reinforcing a negative cycle in which the application of big data levers based on this technology has been delayed. and many retailers do not have sufficient talent in-house. McKinsey Global Institute is a research contracting firm. This destroyed the productivity gains expected from deploying this technology. http://www. This project was led by James Manyika. The gap between the predicted scale of adoption of RFID systems and their actual deployment tells a cautionary tale.

ailing from the strong dollar. .0 in June. puts the sector in a technical recession. manufacturing was down 0.S. senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. Excluding autos. -0. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a reading of 5. The six-month outlook index worsened to 25. industrial production was up 1. rising 1.2% in May. The six-month drop in output.A2: Manufacturing module The manufacturing sector is suffering in the squo Robb 6/15/15 (Greg Robb is a Senior Economics Reporter for Market Watch.2% gain. said Jennifer Lee.075.8 in May. economy is still fighting headwinds from lower oil prices and the stronger dollar . central bankers wait for signs the economy is strong enough to handle higher interest rates. The slower rate of decrease was in part due to a reduce pace of decline in the index for oil and gas well drilling. Those headwinds will likely be highlighted by the Fed as policymakers meet Tuesday and Wednesday to set monetary policy for the next six weeks. Industrial output sank 0. manufacturing output was down 0.39% was down 19 points or almost 1% to 2. The U.3%. the Fed said.2% in May after a 0. an early read on conditions in June. Compared to 12 months ago.S.S.8 in June from 29.marketwatch. The Empire State factory index decreased five points to a reading of negative 2.3% last month. The S&P 500 index SPX.S. And the executives had a sour view of future business conditions.com/story/us-manufacturing-sector-said-to-be-technical-recession-2015-06-15 //HS) WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U. This is the second negative reading in the past three months for the index. chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.” said Ian Shepherdson. manufacturing sector said to be in a technical recession” Market Watch http://www.7.4% — compared to 4. has slipped into a technical recession. No rate hike is expected at the meeting and the U. The Empire State manufacturing survey. new data released Monday show. Mining output declined 0. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a 0. the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. global weakness and lower oil prices. See also: Fed meeting should leave a Final Four of dates for rate hike Beneath the headlines. was also released Monday and added to the sense of weakness . “U. The data is “soft and unlikely to recovery anytime soon . adjusted for inflation.1% gain in April. a former economist for a manufacturing trade group who now writes commentary on the sector . The Federal Reserve said Monday that industrial production dropped unexpectedly in May and hasn’t increased since November .8% growth was recently as November. This is the lowest level since January 2013. after declining more than 1% on average over the past four months. Stocks were sharply lower after the data were released.7%. factory sector. said Alan Tonelson. Auto production has been one bright spot.

http://www. and manufacturing. 28th among the 50 states. using materials sourced from a geographically diverse supplier base. In that category Washington fell just below the median. but there have never been so many orders for new aircraft. is putting pressure on the aerospace industry to produce planes more quickly. Experts dubious”.html If it wasn’t for Boeing (NYSE: BA). Pietsch said. Currently Boeing accounts for approximately 86 percent of the 93. which is creating massive demand for new planes. maintenance. They're also prompting aerospace companies to hire third-party logistics (3PL) providers to manage inbound materials movement. aerospace for Kuehne+Nagel. a Miami-based cooperative that provides supply chain management.Washington proves Steve Wilhelm. president and CEO of The Aerospace Logistics Alliance (TALA). Part of the reason for the drop is that the new PWC report created a new ranking based on the “effective” tax rate for each state. Washington state might have no aerospace at all.220 new freighter and passenger aircraft. Those pressures are elevating supply chain management to an unprecedented status within aerospace organizations. freight forwarding.” said Alex Pietsch director of the state office of aerospace. “Aerospace Logistics: Building for Growth”.inboundlogistics. Lisa Terry.” The drop certainly isn’t good for a state that is urgently trying to attract other aerospace companies so it can be less dependent on Boeing. April 29. and overhaul operations. “Washington state plummets in ‘aerospace attractiveness’ study. the study misses the gravitational pull of Boeing. “I think there’s plenty of evidence the aerospace companies are growing. A related demand is to keep the planes flying— servicing and managing replacement parts across an increasingly global footprint. and estimates the world's overall passenger aircraft inventory will double from 17.com/cms/article/aerospace-logistics-building-for-growth/ The world has an insatiable appetite for air travel. This backlog. http://www. That’s a conclusion one could draw from a just-released PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) report. The study.300 aerospace workers in Washington. 2015. "It's a paradox: The airline industry is suffering. January 2014. repair. But from viewpoint of those recruiting new aerospace companies. entitled “ 2015 Aerospace Manufacturing Attractiveness Rankings.A2: Aerospace Aerospace industry does not meet expectations. senior vice president. fails to take into account Boeing's importance in attracting aerospace companies to the region. production.com/seattle/news/2015/04/29/washington-state-plummets-in-aerospace. Technical challenges are also delaying some production timetables." notes Erik Goedhart. expanding and new ones are locating here in Washington. Airbus' latest Global Market Forecast predicts the need for more than 29.bizjournals. which have historically emphasized research and development. Aerospace sector is strong Murray 15 [Seb Murray . causing a ripple effect through a carefully planned schedule of costly incoming parts timed to keep inventories low. and customs clearance services to aerospace companies. a global supply chain solutions provider.productions low. efficiently. and profitably.500 by 2032.739 in 2013 to more than 36. Staff Writer for Puget Sound Business Journal. Aerospace industry plummet is happening now. which includes aerospace tax incentives. particularly from Middle East buyers. Airframe Material Planner." says Joël Glusman. Aircraft manufacturers are challenged to make lighter aircraft with lower fuel consumption. "The aerospace supply chain is five years behind the automotive and high-tech industries.

A boom in aviation.e.S. the global airline industry has transformed itself with major gains in efficiency. chief executive officer at IATA. the Space Foundation says the world’s space economy is growing at 10% a year. FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 35 ECONOMIC FORECASTS For this year’s Aerospace Forecast. Furthermore.com/news/mbacareers/3337/aerospace-mba-programs-take-flight//jweideman] The global aerospace industry is set for take-off.” says Tony Tyler. These forecasts do not assume further contractions of the industry through bankruptcy. India and the Middle East are shaping and driving the aerospace industry. 2014. or liquidation. meanwhile.” The strength of the aerospace sector has spurred a significant increase in career opportunities.S. consolidation. The assumptions have been updated by FAA analysts to reflect more recent data and developing trends. And. The rapid growth of new markets such as China. IHS Global Insight expects the recovery to begin to accelerate and the U. In times of amplified volatility. as well as further information from industry experts. The intent of these forecasts is to accurately predict future demand. to forecast the demand for international aviation services. economic forecasts are presented on a U. whereas international forecasts are presented on a calendar year basis. Growth set for dramatic recover.S.S. the headwinds that have been faced by the economy appear to be diminishing. one year out) current monthly trends are used in conjunction with published monthly schedules to allow FAA forecasters to develop monthly capacity and demand forecasts for both mainline and regional carriers for fiscal and calendar years 2014-15. Dr Christophe Bénaroya. “Since the tragic events of September 2001. aviation industry has shown that the demand for air travel is resilient as it rebounds from its most recent downward spiral caused by the Great Recession. the FAA uses world and individual country economic projections provided by IHS Global Insight. The general aviation forecasts rely heavily on discussions with industry experts conducted at industry meetings. The FAA also presents the draft forecasts and assumptions to industry staff and aviation associations.. economy to grow faster than in the past few years. including four Transportation Research Board (TRB) meetings of Business Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees in May 2013 and January 2014 along with the results of the 2012 General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey. In the U. “FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034” https://www. U. The world’s biggest aircraft manufacturers have record orders.Editor at BusinessBecause. “Aerospace MBA Programs Take Flight As Sector Faces Skills Crunch” http://www. and its resilient—best methodology FAA 14 [Federal aviation association. As 2014 begins. private sector debt levels have . Growth is also spurred by changes in technology. Their comments and/or suggestions have been incorporated into the forecasts as appropriate. They also do not assume any drastic changes in federal government operations. particularly in the short-term. manufacturing and new consumer expectations . Are the U. the U. to project domestic aviation demand. Once again. who are asked to comment on the reasonableness of the assumptions and forecasts. The medium to long-term forecasts (2015-2034) are based on the results of econometric models. “For the airline business. and global economies on firm ground? Have the structural changes undertaken by the industry over the past 5 years revamped the industry from one of boom-to-bust to one of sustainable profits? Has industry consolidation finished? The FAA has developed a set of assumptions and forecasts consistent with the emerging trends and structural changes currently taking place within the aviation industry.businessbecause. In addition. The International Air Transport Association projects airlines to generate the strongest profit margins since the mid-1960s. Inc. director of the Aerospace MBA at France’s Toulouse Business School.S. government fiscal year (October through September) basis. lingering questions remain. due to the large uncertainty of the operating environment. The commercial aviation forecasts and assumptions are developed from econometric models that explain and incorporate emerging trends for the different segments of the industry. however.. Inc. To generate the short-term forecast (i. the FAA is using economic forecasts developed by IHS Global Insight. the process is filled with uncertainty.faa.S. and a falling oil price have combined to set the scene for years of growth for the aviation business. Annual historical data and economic forecasts are presented in Tables 1 through 4. the variance around the forecasts is wider than it was in prior years. EU newspaper. The starting point for developing the commercial aviation forecasts (air carriers and regionals) is the future schedules published by airlines through Innovata. Sunday 28th June 2015. As the recovery is now approaching its fifth year. The commercial aviation forecast methodology is a blended one. the commercial aviation forecasts are considered unconstrained in that they assume there will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. 2015 is turning out to be a positive year. says the recruitment market has been buoyant over the past two decades. the introduction of increasingly fuel efficient aircraft.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/apl/aviation_forecasts/aerospace_forecasts/20 14-2034/media/2014_FAA_Aerospace_Forecast.pdf//jweideman] Developing forecasts of aviation demand and activity levels continues to be challenging as the aviation industry evolves and prior relationships change.

Navy and Marine Corps are combined the world’s second-largest air force. 01/02/14. The report says that defense spending is increasing in several areas — the Middle East. It operates B-2. increasingly with stealthy profiles and attack capabilities. The housing market had its best performance since 2007 despite a rise in mortgage rates in the summer of 2013.600 aircraft of all types. It manages everything from intercontinental ballistic missiles to X-37 space planes to A-10 Thunderbolt tank killers. The USAF was the first air force worldwide to fly stealth combat aircraft. Airpower high in the squo Mizokami 14 [Kyle Mizokami writes on defense and security issues in Asia. and the first to commit to an all-stealth combat aircraft force.S.org/feature/topguns-the-most-lethal-air-forces-the-planet-11814//jweideman] The U. The Deloitte report also cites increases in passenger demand in places like the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region. will gradually represent a larger proportion of the overall aircraft fleet. “It is likely that 2014 will bring high single to double-digit levels of growth in the commercial aerospace sub-sector. Navy and Marine Corps Worthy of separate mention due to their size and capabilities. the new Defense budget cap is still $30 billion lower than the Pentagon’s proposed 2014 budget.S. In the global economy. 133 attack aircraft. airdrops of Army paratroopers and drops bombs on ISIS insurgents. It operates these aircraft from bases in the continental United States and overseas bases from the United Kingdom to Japan. The 2014 growth in the commercial aerospace industry is being driven by record-setting production levels. The Air Force has roughly 312.been coming down and public sector debt levels have stabilized. South Korea. Asia Security for the United States Naval Institute.S. nuclear triad. coming in just behind the People’s Liberation Army Air Force.The most visible aspect of U.700 aircraft of all types . fleet and conducting air missions from and often over the world’s oceans and seas. Unmanned aerial vehicles. “Study predicts 5 percent defense and aerospace growth” http://thehill.S. including F-22 Raptors. due to the accelerated replacement cycle of obsolete aircraft with newer fuel-efficient planes.763 F-35s and up to 100 optionally manned Long-Range Strike Bombers.159 fighters. defense budget has a major impact on the global trends. Most of the aircraft of the Navy and Marine Corps operate from ships at sea. B-1 and B-52 strategic bombers. naval aviation are the carrier air wings that fly off eleven nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. the U. as well as C-5. Navy are responsible for protecting the U.S. It coordinates military space launches. China. While the budget deal reached last month provided the Pentagon with $31 billion in sequester relief over the next two years. 247 transports and 1. the end of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan has driven defense budgets lower. For the defense industry.231 helicopters. The aircraft of the U. Russia. He is the founder and editor for the blogs Japan Security Watch. Air Force The preeminent air arm of the United States. the first to fly fifth-generation fighters. The USAF plans on preserving its edge by purchasing 1. The report predicts that by 2023. Increasing Herb 14 [Jeremy.000 active-duty members.S. C-17 and C-130 airlifters. The USAF operates 5. The Pentagon had $37 billion cut from its 2013 budget under sequestration. as experienced in 2012 and expected in 2013. with a total of over 3. India. and yet it operates more planes than the PLAAF.S. F-15 and F-16 fighters. Each wing typically consists of around sixty aircraft divided into three squadrons of F/A-18 Hornets and Super Hornets.S.g. 172 patrol aircraft.S. The U. F-35. thanks to boosted revenue in the aerospace sector. GDP growth remaining above 7 percent). given the dramatic production forecasts of the aircraft manufacturers.com/policy/defense/194286-study-predicts-5-percent-defense-and-aerospacegrowth//jweideman] But the overall defense and aerospace industry will still grow in 2014. the outlook for Europe is improving and recent data from China still points to a “soft” landing (e. Brazil and Japan — but that isn’t counteracting declines elsewhere. The most recent data suggest a firming of the employment market. a difficult and dangerous job that requires a high level of training and proficiency. annual production levels in the commercial aerospace industry will increase by 25 percent. is the primary service responsible for air and space missions. particularly Japan.” Deloitte says. the U. including 450 intercontinental ballistic missiles and the strategic bomber force. The U. “Top Guns: The Most Lethal Air Forces on the Planet” http://nationalinterest. 12/9/14. The USAF also manages two legs of the U. Air Force (USAF). one E-2C . Staff writer for The Hill. as the United States accounts for 39 percent of global defense spending . This includes 1.

It’s the best in the world CFR 15 [This is the transcript of an interview. with your permission what I would like to do is talk a little bit about what it means to have the best Air Force on the planet.S. Navy cruisers. and I'm going to talk to you about some of those. we had expected and planned to have a period where a lot of those forces could come back to the United States or back to home base. flying TACAMO (Take Charge And Move Out) aircraft whose mission is to provide command and control in the event of a nuclear war.S. “Air Force adds funds for developing better GPS equipment” http://defensesystems. 3/24/15 “Charting a Future for U.cfr. And then the third event happened in August of last year when the CDC warned the world that we might just have an Ebola pandemic on our hands if somebody didn't step up and take charge and . was a series of three events.com/articles/2015/01/27/air-force-rockwell-mgue-m-code-gpsrecdeivers. which stands for Military Code. in February of last year. M-Code’s design was completed in 2001 and the first M-Code signal was broadcast from a GPS Block II satellite launched in September 2005. what our responsibilities are as a nation. Its development began in the late 1990s after concerns were raised about the potential for blocking existing GPS signals. US navy aviation also contributes to the U. And then in June. Presider: Thomas G. M-Code. First. Earlier this month. So in other words that regroup and reset and retrain strategy that went straight out of the window. messaging formats and frequency modulation techniques. The service’s Space and Missile Systems Center at Los Angeles Air Force Base has awarded Rockwell Collins a $21. and what Tonight. It was going to be a time where we were able to regroup and reset and retrain. and one helicopter squadron. despite all the stresses and strains. Johns Hopkins University. advise and assist role. we are the best Air Force on the planet.S.New funding and contracts overwhelm their internal link McCaney 15 [Kevin. It features enhanced security. The MGUE program has since been working on developing the M-Code receivers—and one reason for the recent moves to accelerate the program is that Congress. Department of the Air Force. But before I get to all of the future. U. 1/27/15. Other aspects of naval aviation include the helicopters that fly off U. strategic nuclear force. the world watched as Russian forces took military action in the Eastern Ukraine. And those three things combined placed significant additional and new demands on our Air Force that we simply didn't foresee. I also want to talk about how I think this affects our foreign policy. some of all this means for the future. Paul H. In other words. And those three events happened in relatively rapid secession. concerned that development was too slow. and variants of the P-3 that conduct electronic surveillance missions. They’re updating tech-. let's talk about where we are right now today. but are oriented towards Marine combined air-ground operations. with the goal of fielding M-Code receivers to the U. with an emphasis on supporting marine ground forces. a joint military program to develop M-Code-capable GPS receivers capable of functioning when conventional receivers are disrupted or offline. founder of defense systems blog.S. Mahnken Professor and Director of Advanced Strategy. more powerful GPS receivers and meet congressional demands to get them into the hands of service members sooner rather than later. Air Power” http://www. the Air Force also awarded an $8. As with L-3 Communication. and ensure the transmission of accurate military signals.org/defense-and-security/charting-future-us-airpower/p36292//jweideman] And as far as I'm concerned. What we didn't expect at that time.Hawkeye airborne early-warning squadron. Marine Corps aircraft are counted under the Navy total and serve on Navy ships. high-powered GPS signal designed to resist jamming and other interference. Speaker: Deborah Lee James Secretary. this outfit called ISIL or ISIS or Daesh or whatever we happen to be calling them on any given day that most Americans had never even heard of at that time. This group started a calculated offensive to take ground and to terrorize ethnic populations in northeast Syria and Iraq. It was just a little bit more than a year ago. mandated that the military buy only M-Code-capable equipment by fiscal 2018. destroyers and other surface ships. U.aspx//jweideman] The Air Force has awarded another contract in its effort to accelerate development of new. Managing editor at Government Computer news. Rockwell Collins’ next phase of the project will focus on adding pre-prototype receiver cards and conducting test support activities. Work on this phase is expected to be completed by the end of September 2016.3 contract modification to L-3 Communications to speed up work on the same program. and really not all that long after I took office as secretary of the Air Force that we in the Air Force were looking toward making what we were predicting to be a rather orderly transition of our mission in Afghanistan away from combat operations and toward train. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. military services and NATO troops more quickly. and operates in a part of the spectrum separate from civil signals. program. P-3 Orion and P-8 Poseidon maritime control aircraft.S.8 million contract modification to support the Military GPS User Equipment. or MGUE. is a fairly new.S. but in fact what we got. one EA-18G Growler electronic warfare squadron.

And as a result of all of this. very quick response force . if you notice. And then it was of course U. There were also airstrikes involved. it took just 14 hours for the first F-15 to show up in Lithuania in response to the Crimean crisis. Senegal in support of Operation Unified Assistance. For instance.000 Yazidis.S. began with air jobs. all of these examples demonstrate how the for our nation. And of course the Air Force has been carrying out the majority of the fight against ISIS ever since. which of course was part of what is an ongoing effort to reassure our allies in the Baltic region that we stand firmly with them and that we stand firmly with NATO. And then there was the example of the Kentucky Air National Guard's 123rd Contingency Response Group. And the United States Air Force stepped up big time to do so. who otherwise were stranded and surrounded and starving. Their airbase-in-a-box arrived on a C-17 with more than 70 airmen who helped funnel humanitarian supplies and equipment into West Africa to help fight Ebola. deployed to Dakar.take action. Air Force is really a very. airmen who ultimately broke the siege of Mount Sinjar. the president ordered the Air Force essentially to help in quite a big way in all three of these areas. were able to make their way to be—to get off of that mountain to relative safety. Now. And ultimately about 20.

would very much like to be able to infer the threedimensional structure of proteins from their underlying DNA sequence. Nine!) Problems With Big Data”. Professor of Cognitive Science at NYU.. Molecular biologists. “Eight (No.html?_r=0 Second. you will always need to start with an analysis that relies on an understanding of physics and biochemistry. and scientists working on the problem use big data as one tool among many.A2: Science Big Data is one of countless tools resulting in scientific discovery. for example. no matter how powerful the statistical analysis . http://www. April 6. But no scientist thinks you can solve this problem by crunching data alone. Marcus. big data can work well as an adjunct to scientific inquiry but rarely succeeds as a wholesale replacement.nytimes. . 2014. causality misconstrues the relationship.com/2014/04/07/opinion/eight-no-nine-problems-with-bigdata. et al.

No Link .

Medicare. tools like OPower and Mint that help users save money. including how and where we spend money. it’s also effecting change on a much more personal level. and what they get in return. The privacy issues associated with the increased amount of data are important. Sweden. “being led by the likes of the Quantified Self group.” Harbison looks at some emerging technologies that are affecting our daily lives.pdf //HS) This card is saying (I think) we need more government access to the data it collects and maybe more data? Also there are barriers we can brush off and look it if we wanted to cause Norway and co did it. Siddharth Taparia.scious effort to trade off between research access and confi dentiality concerns. a movement which promotes learning more about yourself through smart tracking and analysing personal data. Harbison also delves a bit into the Internet of Things. and that reducing barriers to data access can have a profound effect on the amount of research and the quality of what is learned. “We’re witnessing the emergence of the ‘self tracking’ phenomenon. or Social Security Administration. analysis and sale of personal data.scale data sets.” he writes. Research on topics such as labor economics. “The Data Revolution and Economic Analysis” National Bureau of Economics.tries. there are well. and fi nally (and most importantly!) thinking of creative approaches to summarize. consumers will still consent for their data to be collected Webb 13 (January 11. consumers continue to willingly share their information. such as Norway. describe. have gone much farther to facilitate research . Taparia also addresses data privacy. and data tracking app Onavo Count that can warn you if you approach your smartphone data limit and even make recommendations for data plan adjustments based on your usage. These systems are still being worked out for the large. and analyze the infor. and Denmark. productivity. how we study and how we stay healthy.com/2013/01/market-forecast-fisa-bigdata-daily-life. noting that regardless of expressed concerns over the collection.” He outlines five areas that will experience big changes. writes at Forbes that “2013 may be a year when Big Data moves from the technical to the practical. Several challenges confront economists wishing to take advantage of large. but at least they refl ect a con. Privacy constraints on government usage of data now Einav and Levin 2014 (Liran Einav is a professor of economics at Stanford and a writer for the National Bureau of Economics.” and notes that “[s]avvy consumers will understand how and where to best share their data.stanford. 2013. developing the data management and programming capabilities needed to work with large. and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY).mation contained in these data.edu/~jdlevin/Papers/BigData. SAP’s senior director of portfolio and strategic marketing. these protocols are cumbersome and probably dis. “Strata Week: The complexities of forecasting the big data market” O’Reilly Radar. http://radar.established protocols for accessing and making use of the data.ics (PSID). “The Data Revolution and Economic Analysis” National Bureau of Economics. http://web.stanford. and have been already discussed in this publication just a year ago (Goldfarb and Tucker 2012). how we vote. Jonathan Levin is Professor of economics at Stanford and a writer for the National Bureau of Economics. argues Niall Harbison at The Next Web. and household consumption traditionally have relied on government survey data such as the US Census.html //HS) While big data is spurring major change for organizations and research groups worldwide. 20 Einav and Levin Data access. For many of these data. Jenn Webb is the Managing Editor of O’Reilly Radar and writes about Data and other emerging tech areas.pdf //HS) . many European coun. including apps such as Nike Run Plus and Mood Panda that inform selfanalysis.courage a fair number of researchers. big data “also attracts hackers and identity thieves. such as the US Census Data Research Centers.scale adminis.big data can be balanced with privacy concerns Einav and Levin 2014 (Liran Einav is a professor of economics at Stanford and a writer for the National Bureau of Economics. Taparia warns that in addition to trusted government agencies or companies looking to trade a deal or discount for information. Jonathan Levin is Professor of economics at Stanford and a writer for the National Bureau of Economics.Generic No matter what happens. The experience in these countries suggests that broader access is possible. new data sets .oreilly.trative data that recently has been used for economic research from the IRS. In some cases. as real consumers and citizens start seeing its impact . These include gaining access to data. looking at such innovations as SleepShirt smart pajamas and the Pebble watch. In similar vein.edu/~jdlevin/Papers/BigData.” Europe proves. (2010) point out . http://web. But as Card et al. the Panel Study of Income Dynam.

we tolerate this in the private sector. but many people’s reaction to parallel approaches taken by the government would be horror. saving for retirement. a tax rebate program that aimed to provide economic “stimulus” might be most effective if it were targeted specifically to those households who were predicted to have a particularly high marginal propensity to consume. the information it collects surely would be a useful input. The key challenge in consumer protection is to keep individuals from making decisions they will (predictably) come to regret without proscribing individual choice. well. and another way is through the careful presentation of information. planning health care spending—without good information about the financial consequences. How many consumers who take this type of loan with this type of financial situation ultimately default? What is the range of fees paid by a similar consumer for a particular financial prod. For instance. One area of government activity where we could imagine such products is consumer protection. While some 12 Einav and Levin government agencies probably are engaging in this type of activity. it is possible to imagine a utilitarian argument that Medicare should score individuals based on their likely response to a treatment and cover the treatment only if the score exceeded a particular level. it seems clear that there are constraints on the way that the government can target services that probably would rule out a range of “private sector. A far more controversial idea would be to use predictive modeling to improve the targeting of government services. . In this sense. we are not aware of very many salient examples.The most exciting private sector application of big data that we discussed above was using predictive modeling to automate business processes. However. or to improve or develop new products or services.uct or service? What is the eventual cost for patients who choose this line of medical treatment? While the government might not be the right entity to create these tools. or ap. Similarly.g.like” uses of predictive modeling. Behavioral economics has emphasized that one way to strike this balance is through the framing of decisions (e. The types of predictive models discussed above are particularly good for creating personalized summary information. Of course. people can end up making major financial decisions—buying a house.proving individuals for insurance or credit only if they meet certain scoring criteria. For instance. These examples are useful because they correspond roughly to the sorts of things that private sector companies are now doing all the time—targeting discounts or rebates to particular consumers.. it is easy to think of many examples where government data sets might be used to create the types of information products that are commonly seen in the private sector.chosen defaults).

(We didn’t think we were the prisoners!) Why does this matter? Because the very concept of big data is in conflict with the Fourth Amendment protection against “general warrants. an outpatient receiving medical treatment. Warrants and non-warrant orders. The founding fathers would not have been so eager to have their dalliances recorded either! The fact is. an associate of particular individuals or political groups.” And this indiscriminate data dump is of a piece with the Supreme Court-approved DNA data swab that can now be administered during any routine arrest. Anthony Wing Kosner is a contributor to Forbes who specializes in design and web editing. shows just how much of a privacy panopticon the efforts to protect national security have become. “NSA's Verizon Spying Order: Fourth Amendment And Big Data On A Collision Course” Forbes http://www. a regular at the gym. The government’s case is that a phone call is like a letter you put in the mail. the government is interested in investigating. But.FISA/SSRA makes the argument about spillover from government affirmation of privacy rights The constitution prohibits the collection of big data.S. The dissenting Justice Scalia quipped that. “ the law requires the government to do the cherry picking before going to a company like Verizon to get the records.” When asked about the idea of the government as a “big data operation . This problem was discussed in terms of GPS data by an Appellate court in the U. responded that the “Fourth Amendment (and statutes like ECPA and FISA) are designed to eliminate this broad evidence gathering altogether .… and not just one such fact about a person. 7. but so it has become! Purely in terms of data. the precise locations of the callers and the duration of the call is also recorded. that the U.” . It would also put Verizon in possession of knowledge of what. How is it different with a phone call? The metadata about your call (exclusive of what was actually said) can include your number. government is prevented by law from becoming just such a big data operation. “A person who knows all of another’s travels can deduce whether he is a weekly churchgoer. in the age of mobile phones. the number you called and the unique serial numbers of those phones— all of which can be traced directly to individual people. The report today by The Guardian about the secret court order that commanded Verizon to release “telephone metadata” about all of its domestic business customers during a three month period last year. including FISA orders. Further. but the contents of the letter are private and secure.” James Ball BLL -0. but all such facts. it might seem more problematic to ask Verizon to cherry pick through their data rather than just turn all of it over.49%.forbes. the sender’s and the size (and weight!) of the envelope are public knowledge. v. staff attorney for the Electronic Frontier Foundation. Maynard case. “the founding fathers would hardly have been so eager to open their mouths for royal inspection. government has any business collecting it on a mass scale. because that would put a private company in the position of knowing specific things about specific customers.the plan affirms that Kosner 13 (Jul. have to be particularized and narrow and this order is anything but that. of The Guardian provides a good discussion about what this kind of data can indeed show.” This is a classic case of why scale and quantity matter.com/sites/anthonykosner/2013/06/07/nsas-verizon-spying-order-fourth-amendment-and-big-data-on-a-collision-course/ //HS) Beyond the scandal of why the NSA is keeping track of the telephone habits of Americans. Fakhoury reminds me. Your address. specifically. The panopticon is a prison design (see illustration above) whereby the architecture allows a small number of guards to monitor a large number of prisoners.S.” Hanni Fakhoury. is the larger question of what telephony big data can show—and whether the U. an unfaithful husband. 2013.S. a heavy drinker. especially where technology meets the content business.

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7 S ee Dixon. 25. advertising. and sell consumer information that can include highly personal details like marital status. This asymmetry is related to the first harm consumers are exposed to as a result of private . As a result the information is almost perfectly asymmetric: brokers know a great deal about consumers. 5 They then aggregate this information across sources and use it to create highly detailed profiles about individuals — one 4 “Data. loyalty cards.2AC Big Data collection is too dangerous and vulnerable to theft to continue being collected. political affiliation. August 15.org/files/2014/04/08/eff-big-data-comments." 66 STAN. public rec ords. 2014.500 data points on over 700 million individuals. namely the significant power imbalance between consumers and the companies wielding the data and analysis tools . lists of rape victims. 2014. genetic disease sufferers. 2013. 7 The vast majority of information data brokers use to create these lists is data which consumers unintentionally expose in large part because they simply do not know how or when they are being tracked ." "Rural and Barely Making It. This exposes the fundamental mismatch in incentives between companies (whose big data will only be as accurate as profitability dictates) and individuals (who primarily care about whether the data about they themselves is accurate). Pam. direct responses and surveys. However.0382 . "What Information Do Data Brokers Have on Consumers?" World Privacy Forum. medicine.City Strugglers. 2014.intensive.data ." The Washington Post. 2014. analyze. they frequently believe wrongly that the law or a company's privacy policies block certain uses of that data or its dissemination.9259 e2aafe5a5f84_story.party information sharing. 4 Big data is now used in sectors as diverse as energy. if a company uses big data analysis to inform its hiring decisions (say by analyzing a database on the web browsing habits of potential employees acquired from a data broker).transparency . Because of the explosive growth of this field. and more. be able to see the data that led to the decision or the algorithm that processed the data. Californians who shop online believe that privacy policies prohibit third . Data brokers receive and aggregate consumer data from a variety of sources: transactional data from retailers and stores. Pam. "It’s Not Privacy.org/web/20131207192955/http://www. 8 One could argue that it would be in a company's best interests to use data that is as accurate as possible.11e3 .sector big data usage. For example. http://www. since making sure all the data is accurate 100% of the time will likely require human .pdf //HS) The collection and analysis of big data.brokers/2013/08/15/00609680 . Last accessed March 30. 8. or dispute the correctness of either? 8 In general. EFF is the Electronic Frontier Foundation. would a rejected prospective employee learn why she was not offered a job. Last accessed March 30. has exploded into a $100 billion industry.washingtonpost. 2013. and therefore costly. Last accessed March 28. In many cases companies outsource the use of big data to intermediary entities known as data brokers . 6 It's been revealed that these highly detailed profiles include names like "Ethnic Second . L.from . and big data analysis is only carried out to further that goal.aff solves privacy EFF 14 (Apr. or what information is being collected. and others .html. ONLINE 35 (2013). December 18. 5 See Dixon. Julie. social media and website interactions.” The Economist. A majority of Californians believes that privacy policies create the right to require a . 2010. December 18. 2013. No rational company would acquire better quality data when the cost of doing so would be greater than the estimated returns . the fact that people may be treated differently based on data and algorithms that they know little about and have no recourse for correcting creates elementary fairness and transparency problems . which was a niche field within computer science just two decades ago. and Hispanic payday loan responders. Even a competitive market might not be able to completely resolve this issue." and "Credit Crunched: City Families . "Demanding transparency from data brokers.eff. but most consumers have no idea these parties actually even exist . which collect . and telecommunications. Last accessed March 30.com/opinions/demanding .com/node/15557443. 9 Dwork and Mulligan. 2014. "What Information Do Data Brokers Have on Consumers?" World Privacy Forum. dispute/redress processes. data everywhere.economist. and It’s Not Fair." as well as sensitive lists such as police officers and their home addresses. Feb. A website may have an agreement with a data broker to better identify who their customers are so they can place more effective ad s — often in exchange for their customers' brows ing habits and demographic information. companies ranging from startups in Silicon Valley to established multi-national corporations are adopting the mantra of "collect it all. particular data broker is said to have 1. a company's ultimate goal is to be as profitable as possible. “Big Data in Private Sector and Public Sector Surveillance” EEF https://www." in the belief that running a variety of analytics on big data will increase the value of their products or the companies themselves. It is a non profit dedicated to defending civil liberties in the digital sphere. REV. As explained by Chris Hoofnagle and Jennifer King in their study of Californians' perceptions of online privacy: 6 See Brill. https://web. tax status. religion.archiv e. 9 A related problem results from the fact that even if consumers are aware of what data they are providing about themselves and who they are providing it to.

principal researcher at Microsoft Research and Kate Crawford. Last accessed March 29. Researchers who claim Big Data has huge positive impacts are connecting meaningless data.1262130 11 See h ttp://thedatamap. While most people would refer to this as superstition. .com. others might call it apophenia – the experience of seeing meaningful patterns or connections in random or meaningless data.org/ 12 Elgin.in . And.03 .sector use of big data. companies can infer characteristics about people that they might not otherwise wish to be made public. disparate datasets. the collection of data into more concentrated repositories creates a tempting target for malicious agents .sharing landscape. Michael. https://web. 2014. which developed Flu Trends in . the well ." Robert DeNiro's character – a diehard Philadelphia Eagles fan – believes various random and unrelated factors such as the position of the TV remote controls and whether or not his son watches the game with him could factor into whether his team wins or loses. Chris Jay and King.com/articles/2014 .theoretic 10 Hoofnagle. well . researchers say. Finally. 12 This danger is especially grave when companies collect and save all data possible . 2014. regardless of its current value. users may not know to what extent data is shared with unknown third .missed .hack .alarms . but when combined tog ether can be used to infer private information.000-foot view. it can be bad for business. a right to be informed of security breaches.epic . Available at SSRN: http://ssrn." the paper noted. “Why analyzing Big Data can be bad for business”.com/id/101644059 Big data – where every aspect of your life is being quantified in every way imaginable – may be a term you are only just beginning to recognize. even if the above dangers are avoided. Ben.website to delete personal information upon request." Danah Boyd.sector mass data accumulation strongly facilitates government data accumulation given the many ways that companies can be induced or compelled to provide data to the government. EFF has long been concerned that private . 13 This is especially true if the malicious agent has access to individual datasets that might not pose a privacy risk on their own. March 13. But get ready for another one: apophenia. Additionally.party. Dune. Even if consumers are aware of what specific data they are sharing.of . or even by analyzing data from the same dataset that on its face does not seem to have any connection. Riley.org/web/20140313132757/http://www . Very few consumers realize the power of statistical analysis and other big data algorithms. simply because massive quantities of data can offer connections that radiate in all directions . The risk of abuse of the underlying datasets remains. even large. Jennifer. 11 But even a good understanding of the legal and policy protections for data is insufficient to protect a consumer from harm. Malicious actors could use a variety of sophisticated statistical and information .2139/ssrn. http://www. As the recent hack on Target's credit card systems demonstrates.cnbc. 10 Additionally. Carol. One example of big data analysis gone awry was Google.credit . Lawrence. Matlack. they may not understand what inferences could be made based on that data. with the idea that a profitable use might later emerge.doi.parties: an online project called "theDataMap" reflects this data . In the movie "Silver Linings Playbook.financed companies can suffer from massive data breaches that put consumers' data in the hands of a malicious third .13/target ." (September 3.known Target pregnancy example).archive. Drawing inaccurate conclusions from big data analysis could prove costly for companies in how it influences decision making from advertising to management. “Missed Alarms and 40 Million Stolen Credit Card Numbers: How Target Blew It. we emphasize that many "common sense" approaches to preserving privacy and anonymity in big data do not actually accomplish their goals . a general right to sue for damages.” Bloomberg BusinessWeek . "It is the kind of data that encourages the practice of apophenia: seeing patterns where none actually exist. or at least not wish to share with certain third . associate professor at the University of New South Wales wrote in a paper. " What Californians Understand about Privacy Online.parties (for example.org/10. 2008). By “connecting the dots” between different. Unfortunately. algorithms to extract identifiable data from what appears to be an anonymized dataset.businessweek. a right to assistance if id entity theft occurs. due in large part to the next danger: loss of privacy due to individualized analysis and tracking by private . 2014.card . and a right to access and correct data. The phenomenon arises from a subconscious tendency to seek out patterns – such as faces in clouds and hidden messages in music – because our brains are wired this way.data.big data is a potential threat John Phillips. Digital Editor with CNBC.com/abstract=1262130 or http://dx. June 4. "Big data tempts some researchers to believe that they can see everything at a 30.

S. According to an article in Nature magazine. A pharmacy using this data to better decide on the appropriate inventory level of flu-related drugs could have easily overstocked on such drugs. and what it quantifies does not necessarily have a closer claim on objective truth – particularly when considering messages from social media sites." Colin Strong. managing director at GfK NOP business and technology told CNBC." Boyd and Crawford added in their paper. "Brands are becoming increasingly dependent upon data to manage their relationship with customers and to drive their businesses. it's frankly pretty scary how data-driven decisions often seem to be arrived at and acted upon in a relatively unquestioning way.2008 – a tool that geographically tracks searches for flu-related words over time. flu season may have boosted flu-related searches. "Working with big data is still subjective." he added. "There will be very real commercial implications for companies that don't stop and question how these decisions are being arrived at . . inflating the number of cases that Google's algorithm identified . The idea was that people showing flu symptoms would search specific terms on Google to help self-diagnose and that these web searches could be used to create a real-time map of flu outbreaks. Given this reliance. While Google Flu Trends performed well for some time there was an anomaly in December 2012. The cause? Researchers suggested that widespread media coverage of the U. Google's flu-case estimates were twice as high as those from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

such as those from IBM. Many resources are available. it could become impossible to completely remove the ability to identify an individual if there are no rules established for the use of anonymized data files. and with powerful analytics. “10 Big Data Analytics Privacy Problems” https://www. Unethical actions based on interpretations.com/10-big-data-analytics-privacy-problems //HS) 4. Just because you CAN do something doesn’t mean you should. Retailers. without first determining if any other data items should be removed prior to combining to protect anonymity. She has been named the best Privacy advocate in the world numerous times by Computerworld Magazine. Data masking could be defeated to reveal personal information . retail businesses are successfully using big data analytics to predict the hot items each season. Big Data eliminates anonymity on the internet Herold no date (Rebecca Herold is a privacy advocate and consultant. She has extensive experience in online security and privacy rights. and lead to embarrassment and even lost jobs.com/10-big-data-analytics-privacy-problems //HS) Big data analytics are being used more widely every day for an even wider number of reasons . Anonymization could become impossible. to provide guidance in data masking for big data analytics. Privacy breaches and embarrassments. Organizations must establish effective policies. Big Data incentivizes poor ethical choices Herold no date (Rebecca Herold is a privacy advocate and consultant.Specific threats Big Data infringes upon the privacy of consumers Herold no date (Rebecca Herold is a privacy advocate and consultant. procedures and processes for using data masking to ensure privacy is preserved. She has been named the best Privacy advocate in the world numerous times by Computerworld Magazine. there are just as many new privacy concerns being created. “10 Big Data Analytics Privacy Problems” https://www. most organizations don’t realize there are risks. She has extensive experience in online security and privacy rights. in the movie The Fight Club. For example. should not take actions that result in such situations. in other words. if it is cheaper for people to . If data masking is not used appropriately. She has extensive experience in online security and privacy rights. She has extensive experience in online security and privacy rights.secureworldexpo. Since big data analytics is so new. The important and necessary key that is usually missing is establishing the rules and policies for how anonymized data files can be combined and used together. For example.secureworldexpo. The actions taken by businesses and other organizations as a result of big data analytics may breach the privacy of those involved. “10 Big Data Analytics Privacy Problems” https://www. just to name a couple of uses. In such cases subsequent marketing activities resulted in having members of the household discover a family member was pregnant before she had told anyone . For example. Big Data can reveal sensitive personal information Herold no date (Rebecca Herold is a privacy advocate and consultant. and other types of businesses.secureworldexpo. There are my ethical issues with driving behavior. She has been named the best Privacy advocate in the world numerous times by Computerworld Magazine. The power of big data analytics is so great that in addition to all the positive business possibilities . Here are ten of the most significant privacy risks.com/10-big-data-analytics-privacy-problems //HS) 2. Big data analytics can be used to try and influence behaviors. if one anonymized data set was combined with another completely separate data base. without taking into account the associated health risks. Consider that some retailers have used big data analysis to predict such intimate personal details such as the due dates of pregnant shoppers. resulting in an uncomfortable and damaging family situation. big data analysis could easily reveal the actual individuals who data has been masked.com/10-big-data-analytics-privacy-problems //HS) 3. These new methods of applying analytics certainly can bring innovative improvements for business. Ed Norton’s character’s job was to determine if an automobile manufacturer should do a recall based strictly on financial consideration. and to predict geographic areas where demand will be greatest. With so much data. She has been named the best Privacy advocate in the world numerous times by Computerworld Magazine.secureworldexpo. 1. it is possible individuals could be re-identified. “10 Big Data Analytics Privacy Problems” https://www. so they use data masking in ways that could breach privacy. Or.

She has been named the best Privacy advocate in the world numerous times by Computerworld Magazine. etc. While Big Data never goes away. She has extensive experience in online security and privacy rights. and others.S. She has been named the best Privacy advocate in the world numerous times by Computerworld Magazine.secureworldexpo. as a result individuals can suffer harm by being denied services. The data files used for big data analysis can often contain inaccurate data about individuals. organizations could make bad decisions and take inappropriate and damaging actions. In fact.com/10-big-data-analytics-privacy-problems //HS) 8. have recently expressed concern about the privacy risks that are created within using big data analytics. may backfire if the analytics are not truly objective. These risks increase as more data is added to data sets. give promotions. a kind of ‘automated’ discrimination if you will. or otherwise be treated inappropriately.big data Herold no date (Rebecca Herold is a privacy advocate and consultant. She has extensive experience in online security and privacy rights.be killed or injured instead of fixing the faulty equipment in the vehicles. using big data analytics to then turn down a loan to an individual after obtaining and learning such information . as the computations used to get those results). “10 Big Data Analytics Privacy Problems” https://www. Inconsistent Data harms consumers. Consumers have no legal protections from Big Data Herold no date (Rebecca Herold is a privacy advocate and consultant. Big data analytics are not 100% accurate. I’ve not found any that indicate they will delete big data repositories. Big data analytics can be used by organizations to make a much wider variety of business decisions that do not take into account the human lives that are involved.com/10-big-data-analytics-privacy-problems //HS) 6.secureworldexpo. She has extensive experience in online security and privacy rights. but can damage the lives of individuals. all read many studies and articles. use data models that are incorrect as they relate to particular individuals. For example. Big data will probably exist forever. “10 Big Data Analytics Privacy Problems” https://www. or simply be flawed algorithms (the results of big data analytics are only as good. White House. as explicitly required by existing data protection laws.secureworldexpo.com/10-big-data-analytics-privacy-problems //HS) 5. She has extensive experience in online security and privacy rights. I’ve talked with many organizations about their big data use. there are no legal requirements for how to protect privacy while using big data analytics. Big Data allows for unchecked discrimination Herold no date (Rebecca Herold is a privacy advocate and consultant. While big data analytics are powerful. collected online and through the Internet of Things (IoT). must be considered. As a result. a bank or other type of financial organization may not be able to tell by a credit application the applicant’s race or sexual orientation (since it is generally illegal to base such a credit decision upon race). Discrimination.infringes on privacy rights Herold no date (Rebecca Herold is a privacy advocate and consultant. “10 Big Data Analytics Privacy Problems” https://www. Few (if any) legal protections exist for the involved individuals. the Federal Trade Commission.turns retail internal link. “10 Big Data Analytics Privacy Problems” https://www. I’ve . being falsely accused or misdiagnosed. When decisions involving individuals are made based upon inaccurate data or flawed models. Most organizations still only address privacy risks the U. She has been named the best Privacy advocate in the world numerous times by Computerworld Magazine. or bad. She has been named the best Privacy advocate in the world numerous times by Computerworld Magazine. and as more complex data analysis models are used without including rigorous validation within the analysis process . Discrimination has been a problem for years of course.secureworldexpo. Using big data analytics to try and choose job candidates. the predictions and conclusions that result are not always accurate. The potential to reveal personal information because it is not illegal.com/10-big-data-analytics-privacy-problems //HS) 7. but could deduce race or sexual orientation based upon a wide variety of data. but the danger is that big data analytics makes it more prevalent. regulations and contractual requirements.

secureworldexpo. Making patents and copyrights irrelevant. As an associated effect. the royalties associated with copyrighted information are expected to decrease or possibly disappear altogether. Big Data makes patents irrelevant. There is concern that big data could make patents harder to obtain because patent offices will not be able to verify if a submitted patent is unique since there will be too much data to check through within all the growing numbers of big data repositories.com/10-big-data-analytics-privacy-problems //HS) 10. “10 Big Data Analytics Privacy Problems” https://www.have indicated that they instead typically view them as infinitely growing repositories. . She has been named the best Privacy advocate in the world numerous times by Computerworld Magazine. She has extensive experience in online security and privacy rights. the more data is collected more easily analytics will be able to determine more insights into individuals’ lives .kills innovation Herold no date (Rebecca Herold is a privacy advocate and consultant. the bigger the better! As and retained. Big data could make copyrights a thing of the past because it will be too hard to control information that can be hidden or propagated infinitely within big data repositories.