Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Hosted by
Black & Veatch Corporation
GEI Consultants, Inc.
Kleinfelder, Inc.
MWH Americas, Inc.
Parsons Water and Infrastructure Inc.
URS Corporation
On the Cover
Artist's rendition of San Vicente Dam after completion of the dam raise project to increase local storage and provide
a more flexible conveyance system for use during emergencies such as earthquakes that could curtail the regions
imported water supplies. The existing 220-foot-high dam, owned by the City of San Diego, will be raised by 117
feet to increase reservoir storage capacity by 152,000 acre-feet. The project will be the tallest dam raise in the
United States and tallest roller compacted concrete dam raise in the world.
The information contained in this publication regarding commercial projects or firms may not be used for
advertising or promotional purposes and may not be construed as an endorsement of any product or
from by the United States Society on Dams. USSD accepts no responsibility for the statements made
or the opinions expressed in this publication.
Copyright 2011 U.S. Society on Dams
Printed in the United States of America
Library of Congress Control Number: 2011924673
ISBN 978-1-884575-52-5
U.S. Society on Dams
1616 Seventeenth Street, #483
Denver, CO 80202
Telephone: 303-628-5430
Fax: 303-628-5431
E-mail: stephens@ussdams.org
Internet: www.ussdams.org
Civil Engineer, United States Army Corps of Engineers, Vicksburg District, 4155 East Clay
Street,Vicksburg, MS 39183, Joseph.M.Windham@usace.army.mil
2
GIS Professional, United States Army Corps of Engineers, Kansas City District, 601 East 12th Street,
Kansas City, MO, 39183
1061
and maintaining USACE competency in the Hydrology, Hydraulic, and Coastal (HH&C)
Community of Practice.
CIPR, Dam Safety, and Levee Safety Common Requirements
The MMC Production Centers current efforts primarily support the CIPR, Dam Safety,
and Levee Safety programs; however the MMC Production Center also supports USACE
districts and external agencies. The CIPR, Dam Safety, and Levee Safety programs share
several common requirements for MMC products, including:
Developing models that support the estimation of inundation areas and consequences
for dam and levee failure scenarios and dam operational (non-failure) scenarios over
a broad range of loading conditions and project performance.
Tabulation of consequences that support national infrastructure protection priority
setting within a risk-based portfolio management framework.
Development of mapping products that clearly communicate the location of potential
inundation areas, as well as the critical facilities and communities at risk.
The H&H modeling scenarios required by the CIPR, Dam Safety, and Levee Safety
programs vary by structure type. For dams, the CIPR and Dam Safety programs have
agreed to a standard modeling process that includes five failure scenarios and five
operational scenarios. Navigation dam evaluations begin with a screening process to
determine the potential to generate immediate consequences from failure. If there is any
uncertainty when estimating consequence impacts, modeling of navigation dams is
performed following the general procedure for flood control dams.
Specific Program Uses for MMC Products
Emergency Action Plans (EAPs) for USACE Dams: MMC initial model development
and mapping for dams is based on CIPR and Dam Safety program priorities.
Prioritization of the Dam Safety portfolio is based on dam safety action classification
(DSAC) rating. The MMC Production Center aligns critical schedules for dams with
upcoming issue evaluation studies (IESs). The Dam Safety Programs long-term
objective is for each dam in the USACE portfolio to have updated models, inundation
maps, and consequences estimates at least every ten years as part of the periodic
assessment (PA) process.
An EAP is an essential component of a comprehensive emergency management
framework for dam owners and operators. An EAP plays a crucial role in preventing the
loss of life and property damage that can result from the failure of a high-hazard-potential
dam. The EAP identifies potential emergency conditions at a dam and specifies preplanned actions to be followed to minimize property damage and loss of life. The EAP is
essential because it identifies the area below a dam that would be flooded as a result of a
failure; establishes communication between the dam owner and state/local emergency
responders; provides for notifications and evacuations conducted by police, fire, and
rescue teams; and predicts the timing of the impending flood wave. Inundation maps
supporting EAPs can assist local emergency response agencies in the development of
1062
evacuation plans for local communities This Dam Safety Program requirement is met
through a series of geospatial databases and electronic inundation map products
developed by the MMC Production Center.
Dams Sector Exercise Series (DSES): One of the CIPR Programs key initiatives is a
series of collaborative efforts to address regional disaster resilience issuesthe DSES.
The DSES utilizes discussion-based activities (e.g., meetings, seminars, and workshops),
which are complemented by a number of information gathering, consolidation, and
analysis efforts. The purpose of the DSES is to identify, analyze, assess, and enhance
regional preparedness and disaster resilience by involving a wide array of public and
private stakeholders in multijurisdictional, discussion-based activities.
The DSES utilizes a particular scenario for a given region. That scenario serves as the
triggering event to analyze impacts, disruptions, critical interdependencies, and
stakeholder roles and responsibilities. The discussion-based process is executed under the
framework provided by the Homeland Security Exercise and Evaluation Program
(HSEEP). The HSEEP framework provides a standardized methodology and terminology
for activity design, development, conduct, evaluation, and improvement planning, and
can be adapted to a variety of scenarios and events (from natural disasters to terrorist
incidents). To date, two major regional efforts involving multiple dams and levee
systems, cascading impacts, and critical infrastructure interdependencies have been
conducted as part of the DSES program. The MMC Production Center provides technical
support to the DSES program by developing and refining new or existing models to
evaluate flood damages (including estimation of human health and safety impacts) and
estimation of direct economic impacts under the DSES scenario conditions.
Consequence-Based Top Screen (CTS): Considering the USACEs extensive asset
portfolio, the USACE needs to develop a clear and consistent strategy to identify those
high-consequence facilities whose failure or disruption could potentially lead to the most
severe impacts. The USACE must conduct a systematic, portfolio-wide prioritization of
those high-consequence facilities.
The MMC Production Center provides support to the CIPR Program by developing a
series of consequence assessment studies. The results of these studies are used to assist in
implementing a Dams CTS methodology within the USACE and identifying critical
facilities within the USACE dams and locks portfolio (i.e., high-consequence facilities
whose failure or disruption could be potentially associated with the highest possible
impact among the portfolio assets). The consequence analysis considers the following
potential impacts associated with severe damage or disruption:
Direct impacts on human health and safety caused by inundation of downstream
populated areas
Economic impacts associated with severe damage or failure of the facility,
considering direct damage to downstream inundated areas and direct onsite impacts
(asset replacement and business losses)
Indirect effects associated with the disruption or loss of the critical functions
provided by the facility
1063
MODELING
Objective
The goal of the MMC modeling team is to create geo-referenced unsteady HEC-RAS
models capable of producing accurate mapping and consequence analysis across a wide
range of scenarios. Most dams modeled as part of the MMC program are located in a
typical riverine system which HEC-RAS can accurately model. However some projects
with unconfined floodplains and/or located in extremely flat areas may require twodimensional modeling to produce accurate results. For the latter case FLO-2D is
currently being used while other two-dimensional (2-D) modeling tools are being
investigated
The key products delivered by the MMC Production Centers modeling team members
for CIPR Program and issue evaluation study (IES) projects are as follows:
Modeling Scenarios
Ten modeling scenarios have been developed to support Dam Safety and CIPR. These
scearios cover both fail and non-fail for a range of pool elevations, representing minimum
and maximum normal operating conditions as well as select extreme loading conditions
designed to capture the upper limit of potential downstream consequences . These
scenarios are described below.
Normal Low Pool: An unsteady flow simulation for non-failure and failure scenarios
will be modeled for a normal low water level, the 90-percent exceedance duration pool
elevation. Starting reservoir pool will correspond to the 90-percent exceedance duration
pool elevation. Reservoir inflow will be a constant inflow hydrograph as required to
produce the 90-percent exceedance duration pool under normal gate operations. Gate
operation procedures consistent with the latest water control manual will be applied to the
hydrograph routing. Consequence analysis (Hydrologic Engineering Center-Flood Impact
Analysis [HEC-FIA]) will include damage and loss of life estimates.
Normal High Pool: An unsteady flow simulation for non-failure and failure scenarios will
be modeled for a normal high water level, the 10-percent exceedance duration pool
elevation. Starting reservoir pool will correspond to the 10-percent exceedance duration
pool elevation. Reservoir inflow will be a constant inflow hydrograph as required to
produce the 10-percent exceedance duration pool under normal gate operations. Gate
operation procedures consistent with the latest water control manual will be applied to the
hydrograph routing. Consequence analysis (HEC-FIA) will include damage and loss-oflife estimates.
1064
Security Scenario: An unsteady flow simulation for non-failure and failure scenarios will
be modeled for a 1-percent exceedance duration pool elevation. Starting reservoir pool
will correspond to the 10-percent exceedance duration pool elevation. Reservoir inflow
will be a scaled PMF or reservoir design flood hydrograph. The scaled hydrograph will
be developed by scaling the available hydrograph using trial and error to produce a peak
pool equal to the 1-percent pool elevation. Gate operation procedures consistent with the
latest water control manual will be applied to the hydrograph routing. Consequence
analysis (HEC-FIA) will include damage and loss-of-life estimates. A HEC-FIA
simulation for the non-failure condition is not necessary if non-damaging releases result
from the Security Scenario.
Top of Active Storage. An unsteady flow simulation for non-failure and failure scenarios
will be modeled for the top of active storage water level. Starting reservoir pool will
correspond to the 10-percent exceedance duration pool elevation. Reservoir inflow will
be a scaled PMF or reservoir design flood hydrograph. The scaled hydrograph will be
developed by scaling the available hydrograph using trial and error to produce a peak
pool equal to the top of active storage elevation. Gate operation procedures from the
latest water control manual will be applied to the hydrograph routing. Consequence
analysis (HEC-FIA) will include damage and loss-of-life estimates.
Note: Top of active storage is defined as the pool elevation that, if exceeded, would
result in significant increase in discharge based on the physical properties of the project
and/or operation procedures from the latest water control manual.
Maximum High Pool: An unsteady flow simulation for non-failure and failure scenarios
will be modeled for the maximum high pool water level. The maximum high pool event
will be defined by one of the scenarios below:
Scenario 1: If the available inflow design flood hydrograph has been derived in
accordance with current policy and guidance, this design flood hydrograph is to be routed
through the reservoir according to current operational procedures from the latest water
control manual. The peak pool produced by this routing will be designated the maximum
high pool elevation at which dam failure is to occur.
Scenario 2: If the available inflow design flood hydrograph is not current, the antecedent
pool should be increased as required to obtain a peak pool at the top of dam elevation by
routing the design flood hydrograph through the reservoir according to current
operational procedures from the latest water control manual. If the available design flood
overtops the dam and the dam has not been specifically designed for overtopping,
overtopping failure shall be assumed at the top of dam (maximum high pool) elevation.
Storage and discharge data may have to be extrapolated using available data for the
overtopping maximum high pool scenario.
Scenario 3: If the project has significant storage and/or discharge capacity, such that
raising the antecedent condition in the above scenario cannot reasonably obtain the top of
dam, the design flood hydrograph is to be routed through the reservoir with the
1065
appropriate antecedent pool level. Gates will be operated according to the current
operational procedures from the latest water control manual. The peak pool produced by
this routing will be designated the maximum high pool elevation at which dam failure is
to occur. The antecedent pool level is to be approved by the modeling project lead.
MAPPING
Inundation Mapping
The MMC has put considerable effort into developing a standard template for inundation
mapping to be used as both an addendum to emergency action plan documentation and as
stand-alone map books for use in actual or exercise emergencies. Data generated by the
inundation modeling effort is processed using custom GIS (Geographic Information
Systems) tools and optimized for use in the mapping process. The mapping standard is a
set of processes and templates that are used by the MMC GIS team to produce the dam
failure inundation maps, or Inundation Atlases.
The goal for the MMC inundation mapping standard is to fit the needs of the majority of
users and to provide the ability for stake-holders to take the products and customize them
to meet local goals. No single standard will work for every dam in the USACE
inventory, the MMC standard aims to get as close as possible. This section will discuss
the development of the inundation mapping standard and some specifics about how the
maps are developed and then disseminated to stake-holders.
Mapping Data
Along with the data generated through the modeling effort, a number of national datasets
are used to provide context to the modeled inundation. These datasets are gathered from
the enterprise data stores of USACE and are combined on the maps. These datasets
include such information as police stations, fire stations, hospitals, and electric generation
plants.
Hydraulic modeling is dependent on geometric datasets including such features as flow
paths and cross sections. These datasets are extracted from the model output for use in
the MMC inundation maps. While not directly displayed in the maps, the centerline of
the model is used to derive the reference miles denoting the distance downstream from
the dam and is used as the basis for the display of the arrival time points that will be
discussed later. Cross sections are displayed in the map as the source of inundation
timing data shown in the time data tables on the map sheets.
Hydrograph data, stored as tabular data depicting water surface elevation over time at
each cross section is produced by the model. This data is extracted from the model
output dataset into a GIS database for use in constructing the profile graph facing pages
discussed later. The hydrographs are the bulk of the data output from the MMC
hydraulic model.
1066
Mapping Templates
The inundation atlas is a map book produced in Adobe pdf format and printed on 11 by
17 paper. The sheets are laid out based on the USGS 7.5 minute topographic quadrangle
index. The MMC index uses of a USGS quad sheet on each page of the inundation
atlas. References to the quad sheet number and name are included on the MMC maps to
give users a way to find associated mapping products.
The GIS Mapping team uses template files to produce the pieces of the inundation atlas.
The process begins with the cover sheet which displays information about the map series
including the dam name, owning district, and date of production (Figure 1). A cover sheet
is developed for both the aerial and the street map background series. A photo of the
study dam is placed in the cover sheet template and then the sheet is exported to pdf
format for use in compiling the atlas later.
1067
Each inundation atlas opens on a notes page, shown in Figure 2 that contains stock
information about the data contained in the maps and a legend that applies to the maps.
1068
As mentioned before, the standard sheets used by the MMC are based on the USGS 7.5
minute quad index. Standard sheets are produced at a scale of 1:31,680, or 1 inch =
mile. Match lines indicating the edge of the individual sheet are shown in the maps,
providing an indicator of the overlap between adjacent sheets. An example of a standard
sheet is shown in Figure 4.
1069
1070
1071
1072
1073
The GIS layers used in the maps are compiled into a single database that is used to
display the information over web mapping applications available internally to USACE
users. Release of the data to external entities is authorized only on a need-to-know basis
as determined by the district that is responsible for the study dam.
CONSEQUENCE ESTIMATION
Consequence Analysis
In a process that occurs parallel to the development of MMC inundation atlases,
economists within USACE take the hydraulic modeling output and develop consequence
models that estimate both economic losses and life loss due to dam failure. Direct
consequence models are developed using HEC-FIA software and indirect consequences
are compiled by the economists.
The USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) is responsible for developing
hydrologic and hydraulic modeling products for USACE use. HEC also has developed a
consequence model called Flow Impact Analysis (FIA), designed to consume the
hydraulic output of their RAS software along with Census data pulled from the FEMA
HAZUS datasets to calculate economic and life loss statistics.
Many assumptions are made when doing economic loss calculations. The FIA software
uses structure information stored in Census block data to create a structure inventory of
points within the impacted area. The structures are given populations depending on the
statistics from the Census. The default location of the structures is an even distribution
with the census block. The modeler can adjust these locations based on aerial photography or other better information sources to increase the accuracy of the estimations.
Economic losses are calculated based on the depth of flooding at individual structures.
Loss curves have been developed over years of research for each kind of structure.
Variations in construction types are taken into account. The loss values are then
aggregated based on pre-defined impact areas, usually counties and reported at that level.
Life loss is calculated by FIA based on a modified version of the LifeSim model
developed by David Bowles of Utah State University. The version of the model used in
FIA makes simplified assumptions about the evacuation of residents of the structures.
Each structure is given a population by the model based on Census data. Evacuation
curves calculating the percentage of people that will evacuate over time have been
developed using empirical data. These curves provide the probability that an individual
will leave a structure and head to dry ground or stay in the structure and evacuate
vertically within the structure. Survival curves have also been developed for many
structure types based on depth as well as for those who do evacuate but are caught by the
inundation. Life loss is calculated for the populations of each of the structures and then
aggregated to the same level as the economic losses. The MMC economists refine the
models to provide the best possible information, but as with any consequence estimation
effort, there is an inherent level of uncertainty.
1074