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This
natural
gas,
being
cleaner
to
burn
and
price
competitive,
has
found
its
way
to
gas-fired
electrical
generation
plants
all
over
the
world,
but
especially
in
the
US
where
conditions2
have
made
its
extraction
favorable.
The
oil
shales
are
found
in
abundance
in
areas
not
typically
associated
with
hydrocarbon
production.
Examples
include
the
Bakken
shales
in
North
Dakota
or
the
Antrim
in
Michigan.
Countries
like
Mexico
and
Pakistan
have
technically
recoverable
oil
shales,
but
are
hampered
by
high
base
water
stress3
levels,
which
make
them
unlikely
for
resource
extraction
given
current
market
and
technology
conditions.
Natural
gas
reserves
have
been
increasing
globally
over
the
same
ten-year
period
from
154.9
trillion
cubic
meters
to
187.3
trillion
and
increase
of
some
17.3%.
If
we
look
back
to
1992,
we
see
global
gas
reserves
having
risen
from
119
trillion
cubic
meters
to
todays
levels
of
187.3
trillion
cubic
fired generation of electricity under ever grater regulation, as will be noted on page 2.
3 Base level water stress can be defined as any region where water is physically scarce
Natural
Gas
Pricing
As
can
be
seen
in
Figure
3
above,
relative
to
coal,
natural
gas
has
had
greater
volatility
since
at
least
1994.
However,
in
January
of
2012,
the
price
of
NG
met
or
fell
below
the
same
$/MMBtu
as
coal,
making
it
very
price
competitive4
for
electricity
generation
while
providing
a
net
decrease
in
the
CO2
emissions
that
the
US
Clean
Air
Act
has
been
tightening
up
on.
Politics
and
Policies
-
Regulation
and
the
US
Clean
Air
Act
(CAA)
In
the
United
States,
The
Clean
Air
Act
or
CAA
and
its
various
amendments
since
1970
have
been
putting
regulations
and
restrictions
in
place
on
stationary
CO2
emitters.
As
these
emitters
are
identified
(in
this
discussion
were
talking
about
fossil
fuel
fired
electrical
generation
plants)
the
Environmental
Protection
Agency
(acting
under
the
CAA)
develops
New
Source
Performance
Standards
or
NSPSs.
The
long
and
short
of
it
is
that
coal-fired
electrical
generation
plants
especially
new
ones
being
built
or
planned
will
be
held
to
a
higher
standard
for
CO2 emissions
than
previously
constructed
plants
and
this
means
that
the
dirty
coal
will
be
displaced
by
cleaner
natural
gas.
In
the
US,
this
means
that
there
will
be
(or
already
is)
a
good
and
steady
market
demand
for
natural
gas
for
these
plants
which
will
provide
confidence
for
investors
in
natural
gas
resource
exploration
and
extraction,
especially
tight
gas,
which
the
US
seems
to
have
in
abundance.
China
At
present,
China
is
the
largest
single
user
of
coal
for
electrical
generation
in
the
world
consuming
about
50%
of
global
production
and
most
projections
suggest
that
this
isnt
going
to
stop
any
time
soon.
Chinas
installed
electrical
generating
capacity
has
increased
from
some
806gW
in
2008
to
1,174gW
in
2012.
Most
of
that
has
been
coal-fired
plants.
While
coal
consumption
and
coal-fired
electricity
generation
are
not
exactly
equivalent
measure,
they
are
close
enough
for
the
purposes
of
comparison.
Below,
we
see
that
US
coal
consumption
has
leveled
off
and
even
begun
to
fall,
while
the
Chinese
4
In
2010$
Ed
Horner
Decreasing
Coal
Reserves
Analysis
July,
2015
United
Nations
Department
of
Economic
and
Social
Affairs/Population
Division
1
World
Population
to
2300
Add
to
this,
the
concerns
about
green
house
gas
emissions
from
coal-fired
electric
generation
plants
(and
the
as
yet
unproven
technology
of
deep
ground
CO2
injection
for
carbon
sequestering)6
and
we
are
left
to
conclude
that
coal
reserves
will
continue
to
decline
while
reserves
of
natural
gas
and
the
use
of
renewables
will
continue
to
rise.
6
Carbon
sequestration
describes
long-term
storage
of
carbon
dioxide
or
other
forms
of
carbon
to
either
mitigate
or
defer
global
warming
and
avoid
dangerous
climate
change.
It
has
been
proposed
as
a
way
to
slow
the
atmospheric
and
marine
accumulation
of
greenhouse
gases,
which
are
released
by
burning
fossil
fuels
Wickipedia.
While
a
handful
of
carbon
sequestration
facilities
exist
notably
Norways
Sleipner
saline
aquifer
and
North
Dakotas
Weyburn-Midale
Carbon
Dioxide
Project
there
is
no
wide
spread,
commercially
viable
technologies
presently
being
undertaken.
Ed
Horner
Decreasing
Coal
Reserves
Analysis
July,
2015