Asia Pacific Consensus Economics

Survey Date
December 8, 2014
Every month, Consensus Economics surveys over 180 prominent Asia Pacific financial and
economic forecasters for their estimates of a range of variables, including future growth,
inflation, foreign trade and exchange rates. All of the countries listed below are covered and
the reference data, together with analysis and polls on topical issues, is rushed to subscribers
by express mail and e-mail.
Survey Highlights
Contents
Page
Significant Changes in the
Consensus ............................................ 2
Special Survey
Quarterly Forecasts
(continued on page 32) ........................ 3
Individual Country Forecasts
Australia ............................................. 4
China .................................................. 6
Hong Kong .......................................... 8
India .................................................. 10
Indonesia .......................................... 12
Japan ................................................ 14
Malaysia ........................................... 16
New Zealand ..................................... 18
Philippines ........................................ 20
Singapore ......................................... 22
South Korea ...................................... 24
Taiwan .............................................. 26
Thailand ............................................ 28
Bangladesh, Pakistan,
Sri Lanka and Vietnam ...................... 30
Oil Price Forecasts ............................ 30
Foreign Exchange Forecasts ............. 31
Special Survey:
Quarterly Forecasts ....................... 32-33
Asia Pacific and World
Economic Activity Table .................... 36
China moved to cut interest rates last month in a sign that

policymakers are becoming worried about weakening nearterm growth prospects. It was the first rate reduction in more
than two years and commentators have not ruled out the
possibility of further monetary easing, especially in view of the
soft start to Q4. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's economy is also
struggling to gain momentum after another poor showing in the
third quarter tipped the country into recession. Premier Abe
responded to the weak GDP data by calling a snap election for
December 14. Furthermore, he announced that the second
sales tax hike, which was scheduled for October 2015, would
be delayed for 18 months. Consequently, 2014 growth prospects have worsened for both countries this month.
Our next issue of Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts will be
available at the end of the day on January 15, 2015 and will
include Forecast Probabilities.
Quarterly Real GDP Growth (% y-o-y)

%
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
Indonesia
Australia
Consensus
Forecasts
Japan
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
In this month's special survey we asked our panellists to

provide us with their quarter-by-quarter forecasts for a range
of macroeconomic variables, including real GDP growth,
inflation, trade balances and short-term interest rates.
These quarterly consensus forecasts through to the second
quarter of 2016, can be found on pages 2, 3, 32 and 33.
Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (ISSN: 1351-0967) is published by Consensus Economics Inc.,
53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom
Tel: (44 20) 7491 3211
Fax: (44 20) 7409 2331
www.consensuseconomics.com
Editor: Suyin Kan

Assistant Editor: Robert Hunt
Publisher: Philip M. Hubbard
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means,
electronic, photocopying, digitization or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. The Editor and Consensus Economics Inc., do not guarantee or take any responsibility for the
information set forth herein, including the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the forecasts or written analysis.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INTHE CONSENSUS

The charts on this page show the evolution of Quarterly
Forecast Trends for GDP Growth for six Asia Pacific
economies. Each chart includes estimates from our surveys
in December 2013 (red line), June 2014 (black) and the
current December 2014 survey (blue) and also in tabular
form on pages 3, 32 and 33. The release of Q3 GDP growth
data provides a clear picture of the regional outlook and has
clearly affected our panels quarterly GDP growth projections
for a number of countries over the coming quarters. The
overall picture appears bleaker than earlier in the year. This
is particularly true in Japan where the nation currently finds
itself in recession after two consecutive quarters of negative
growth. The economy unexpectedly shrank by 1.2% (y-o-y)
in Q3 on the back of a 0.3% contraction in Q2 as consumption failed to recover after April's tax hike. A snap election
DECEMBER 2014
called for later this month adds to the uncertainty and the
discouraging signs shown by the economy have, consequently, led to a downgrade in our panels GDP projections.
Elsewhere, Thailand has also experienced significant reductions in GDP forecasts as quarterly growth expectations have
weakened compared with the December 2013 and June 2014
surveys. This is hardly surprising given the Q3 GDP release,
which showed that growth remained low at 0.6% (y-o-y), 1.2%
lower than consensus expectations of a 1.8% gain back in
June 2014. In Indonesia, meanwhile, our panel is pessimistic about the 2015 outlook following the recent controversial
fuel subsidy repeal. GDP growth is now expected to fall below
5% (y-o-y) in Q4, and the recovery in 2015 is likely to be
somewhat sluggish, with interest rates probably heading
upwards as the country battles rising inflationary pressures.
China GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts

in December 2013, June 2014 and December 2014
(% change y-o-y)
8.0
7.8
Outturns
7.6
7.2 7.2
7.1 7.0
7.1 7.0
7.0
6.6
Japan GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts

%
December 2013
(% change y-o-y)
December 2014
<Consensus Forecasts>
2.4
1.6 1.5
5.5
4.8
0.2
%
7.8
(% change y-o-y)
December 2014
December 2013
7.4
6.6
6.6
6.2 6.3
6.2 6.2
Outturns
6.0
June 2014
5.8
5.4
-0.8
5.3
Philippines GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts

6.2
June 2014
5.1 5.2
5.6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013
2014
2015
2016
1.5
Outturns
5.8
5.0
Singapore GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts

%
December
2013
Outturns
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013
2014
2015
2016
Thailand GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts

%
(% change y-o-y)
(% change y-o-y)
6.0
December 2013
June 2014
5.0
5.0
3.9
4.0
2.0
2.5
3.7
3.9
3.3
3.4
December 2014
<Consensus
Forecasts>
0.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013
2014
2015
2016
5.8
7.0
1.8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013
2014
2015
2016
1.0
5.6
4.8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013
2014
2015
2016
2.0
December
June 2014
2013
Outturns
5.2
6.8
3.0
6.8
6.0
7.0
6.0
December 2014
7.2
6.4
June 2014
7.2
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
(% change y-o-y)
December 2014
December
2013
7.4
Indonesia GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts

June 2014 3.8

4.0
4.0 3.9
3.0
2.0
2.0
Outturns
1.0
3.8 3.2
3.6
December 2014
<Consensus
Forecasts>
0.0
-1.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013
2014
2015
2016
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2014
DECEMBER 2014
QUARTERLY FORECASTS
In addition to their regular forecasts, country panellists were asked to provide forecasts for individual quarters covering the
period through the second quarter of 2016. Figures in normal type are official, published data with consensus forecasts based
on the arithmetic averages of our panels' forecasts shown in bold italics. Unless otherwise noted, all definitions correspond
to those used on the individual country pages, and figures represent percentage changes over the same quarter of the previous
year. Readers should note that the four quarterly consensus forecasts covering a year may not equate to the annual consensus
forecast shown for the same variable on pages 4-29, since the groups of survey respondents may be different, or because
of rounding.
Australia
* % change over same quarter of
previous year
2013
2014
2015
2016
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Gross Domestic Product*
1.9
2.2
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.2
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.1
Industrial Production*
0.9
1.8
5.0
5.1
3.9
3.3
1.3
2.2
2.8
3.2
3.3
3.3
Consumer Prices*
2.2
2.7
2.9
3.0
2.3
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.8
-3.1
-0.5
2.0
-4.6
-4.4
-5.2
-3.8
-3.1
-2.4
-1.7
-0.8
0.1
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.3
Trade Balance (A$bn)

1
90-day Dealer Bill Rate, %
China
previous year
Consumer Prices (Nationwide)*
Trade Balance (US$bn)
2013
2015
2014
2016
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
7.8
7.7
7.4
7.5
7.3
7.2
7.2
7.1
7.0
7.0
7.1
7.0
10.1
10.0
8.7
8.9
8.0
7.9
8.0
7.8
7.7
7.8
8.0
8.0
2.8
2.9
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.7
61.5
90.5
16.5
85.9
128.2
107.7
51.4
93.0
118.0
117.9
34.3
79.9
Hong Kong
*% change over same quarter of
previous year
2013
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
2015
2016
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
2.0
2.4
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.5
3.0
2.9
2.6
1.8
2.7
Consumer Prices*
5.3
4.3
4.2
3.6
4.9
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.5
3.4
Unemployment Rate (%)
3.5
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.4
-15.3
-17.7
-16.0
-18.2
-16.0
-20.5
-17.6
-18.4
-17.1
-24.0
-18.0
-19.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.3

1
3-month Interbank Rate, %

1
2014
End period
For the majority of countries across Asia, economic activity for

the September quarter proved to be less than upbeat as growth
slipped back down. Regional behemoths like China and India
saw their expansions moderate to 7.3% (y-o-y) and 5.3%,
respectively. Fears about near-term growth prospects prompted
Beijing to cut rates last month and in India the authorities are
also under pressure to loosen policy to support growth. In other
DECEMBER 2014
parts of the region, Q3 activity slowed in Indonesia, Malaysia

and Thailand, while Japan slipped into a surprise recession,
prompting Premier Abe to delay an unpopular sales tax hike
and to call a snap election. However, it was not all bad news
on the growth front as GDP surprised on the upside in Hong
Kong, while Taiwan saw its economy grow at its fastest rate
in almost two years. Tables continued on pages 32-33.
NOTES AND ABBREVIATIONS
BoP
fob
IMF
OECD
y-o-y
Measures of GDP, consumption, fixed investment and industrial production are expressed in real
(i.e. inflation-adjusted) terms unless otherwise noted. These variables, and most others unless otherwise indicated,
are expressed as average percentage changes over the previous year.
All individual country forecasters on pages 4-29 are listed in descending order of their 2014 real GDP estimates.
Consensus forecasts are arithmetic averages of the listed individual estimates.
Balance of Payments
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
free on board
cif
including cost, insurance and freight
International Monetary Fund
na
not available
Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development
year-on-year
q-o-q - quarter-on-quarter m-o-m - month-on-month
DECEMBER 2014
AUSTRALIA
Annual
Total
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year
Gross
Industrial Consumer
Household Business
Gross
Domestic Consump- Investment Operating Production
Prices
Product
tion
Profits
Economic Forecasters
New
Housing
UnemApprovals ployment
(thousand Rate (%)
units)
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
Citigroup
Oxford Economics
ANZ Group
Commonwealth Bank
JP Morgan Chase
Econ Intelligence Unit
HSBC Australia
Moody's Analytics
Merrill Lynch Australia
National Australia Bank
UBS
Deloitte Access Econ
IHS Economics
BT Financial Group
Melbourne Institute
QIC
Westpac Banking Corp
BIS Shrapnel
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
3.1
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.3
2.8
3.2
2.9
2.3
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.5
na
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.9
na
1.9
2.5
3.4
2.8
2.4
3.0
2.8
3.2
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.7
2.9
-5.1 -5.5
-0.6
1.4
-4.6 -4.8
-5.2 -4.5
-6.9 -2.8
na
na
na
na
-0.1
0.8
-5.2 -2.0
-6.0 -7.5
-4.5 -2.2
-5.2 -12.7
na
na
-4.7 -3.0
na
na
-5.4 -5.3
-4.0 -3.5
-4.0 -2.2
na
na
2.1
2.4
na
na
na
na
3.5
1.1
na
2.9
na
2.0
na
2.7
na
2.1
na
na
0.8
0.4
na
na
na
na
3.4
-1.8
na
2.0
na
4.0
na
5.4
na
5.4
na
4.3
na
na
na
4.1
5.0
4.4
na
na
na
3.6
4.0
na
na
na
na
4.3
na
1.9
na
na
na
2.9
3.7
1.4
na
na
na
1.9
2.3
na
na
na
na
2.7
2.5
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.0
2.4
na
na
2.6
2.7
na
na
2.6
na
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.5
na
2.7
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.6
na
na
2.6
3.0
na
na
3.1
na
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.5
na
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.7
na
na
na
190
190
na
na
na
189
na
190
191
na
197
188
194
197
193
na
na
na
186
185
na
na
na
180
na
180
182
na
190
na
194
185
192
6.3
6.0
6.1
6.0
6.3
6.0
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.0
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.0
6.3
5.8
6.1
6.1
5.8
6.0
6.5
6.7
6.0
6.2
6.0
6.1
5.9
6.1
6.5
6.1
Consensus (Mean)
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.8
-4.4
-3.8
2.4
2.4
4.3
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.9
192
186
6.1
6.1
Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation
3.1
3.0
3.3
2.7
0.2
2.9
2.9
3.3
2.3
0.3
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.2
0.1
2.9
2.9
3.4
1.9
0.4
-4.5 -3.3
-4.9 -3.3
-0.1
1.4
-6.9 -12.7
1.9
3.5
4.0
5.1
3.5
1.1
0.7
4.5
5.3
5.4
-1.8
2.6
4.4
3.8
5.0
3.6
0.4
2.3
2.0
3.7
1.4
0.8
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.5
0.1
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.0
0.2
2.6
2.6
2.9
2.5
0.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.5
0.2
191
191
197
188
3
186
187
194
180
5
6.0
6.1
6.3
6.0
0.1
6.0
6.0
6.7
5.8
0.2
Comparison Forecasts
IMF (Oct. '14)
OECD (Nov. '14)
2.8
3.1
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.3
6.2
6.1
6.1
6.2
Government and Background Data
Historical Data
Prime Minister - Mr. Tony Abbott (centre-right Liberal-National coalition). Government - The coalition won 90 seats of the 150-seat House
of Representatives (lower house) and the opposition (Australian Labour
party) secured 55 seats. Next Elections - 2016 (Parliamentary).
Nominal GDP - A$1,554.8bn (2013). Population - 23.3mn (mid-year,
2013). US$/A$ Exchange Rate - 0.967 (average, 2013).
Quarterly Consensus Forecasts

Historical Data and Forecasts (bold italics) From Survey of
December 8, 2014
2014
Q1
Wage
Cost
Index
Year
Average
2015
Q2 Q3
Q4 Q1
2016
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Gross Domestic 3.0 2.7 2.7

Product*
2.5
2.2 2.5
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.1
Consumer
Prices*
2.9 3.0 2.3
2.0
2.2 2.2
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.8
Trade Balance
(A$bn)
2.0 -4.6 -4.4 -5.2 -3.8 -3.1 -2.4 -1.7 -0.8 0.1
* % change on previous year
2010
2011
2012
2013

Household Consumption*
Business Investment*
Gross Operating Profits*
Consumer Prices*
Wage Cost Index*
Housing Approvals, 000 units
Unemployment Rate, %
Trade Balance (BoP, A$bn)
Current Account (BoP, A$bn)
Commonwealth Budget
fiscal years, A$bn**
90 day Dealer Bill, % (end yr )
Yr Govt Bond, % (end yr)
2.3
3.2
0.0
11.0
4.4
2.9
3.4
182
5.2
7.0
-48.3
2.7
3.1
18.7
9.3
1.1
3.3
3.7
154
5.1
12.6
-42.4
3.6
2.5
15.1
-4.8
3.7
1.8
3.6
155
5.2
-22.2
-64.0
2.1
1.7
-1.7
2.8
1.7
2.4
2.9
179
5.7
-9.9
-51.5
-51.1
5.0
5.6
-47.0
4.5
3.8
-21.0
3.1
3.3
-52.5
2.6
4.2
**
Data are for fiscal years beginning in July and ending the following
June (i.e. 2013 = July 2013 to June 2014, corresponding to FY13/14).
*Percentage Change (year-on-year)

DECEMBER 2014
Fiscal Years
July - June
Annual Total
Goods &
Services
Trade
Balance
(BoP basis,
A$bn)
AUSTRALIA
Current
Account
Balance
(A$bn)
Commonwealth
Budget
Balance
(A$bn)
Rates on Survey Date

2.7%
3.0%
10 Year
90-day
Dealer Bill Government
Bond
Rate (%)
Yield (%)
2014 2015 2014
End End
End
End
FY
FY
2015 14/15 15/16 Mar'15 Dec '15 Mar '15 Dec'15
0.6
-1.2
-12.5
-10.0
-7.0
5.3
-11.4
2.3
-11.9
-13.9
-13.6
-15.7
-13.2
-11.3
na
-11.0
-11.0
-9.8
-71.8
-56.9
-67.2
-43.0
-50.0
-39.6
-44.9
-33.2
-69.1
-63.2
-50.4
-47.2
-52.7
-48.0
na
-32.1
-53.0
-34.6
-8.5
-7.4
-0.4
5.3
-15.7
6.3
-20.9
-2.8
-14.7
-2.4
3.2
1.6
-8.7
27.0
-19.1
-22.6
-16.6
-16.3
-21.2
-10.5
na
3.0
-19.0
2.1
na
-19.1
na
-35.0
-17.1
na
-17.9
-40.0
-25.0
-30.0
-33.6
na
na
-25.0
na
-27.6
na
na
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.7
na
3.2
2.7
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.4
na
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.2
2.7
2.9
3.4
3.1
3.1
2.9
na
3.6
2.9
3.0
2.3
3.1
2.4
na
3.1
na
3.0
2.2
3.3
3.3
3.8
3.2
3.5
3.6
na
3.2
4.2
na
3.1
3.3
3.3
na
3.3
3.5
3.8
3.1
3.7
3.9
4.1
3.5
3.7
4.0
na
3.4
4.6
na
3.3
3.7
3.3
na
3.8
na
4.4
3.4
4.2
-8.1 -49.6 -50.4 -36.7 -27.0
2.7
2.9
3.5
3.8
3.2
2.2
0.2
3.6
2.2
0.4
4.2
3.1
0.3
4.6
3.3
0.4
-1.7
10.8
27.0
-22.6
13.0
-52.6
-53.5
-54.3
-47.0
-56.2
-40.7
-49.0
-45.0
-50.3
-51.7
-49.6
-56.1
-50.0
-47.0
na
-46.9
-47.0
-46.0
-50.0
-44.7
-40.7
-56.2
4.2
-48.6
-41.0
-32.1
-71.8
12.3
na
-32.0
na
-40.0
-29.8
na
-30.5
-50.0
-35.0
-40.0
-38.7
na
na
-35.0
na
-35.9
na
na
-32.0
-31.6
-29.8
-50.0
5.9
-21.0
-21.6
-17.1
-40.0
7.7
Likelihood of a RBA Interest Rate Change

The panel's estimated average probability of a change in the
Reserve Bank of Australia's Overnight Cash Rate Target
(currently 2.5%) at or before the next monetary policy
meeting (February 3, 2015) was:
INCREASE
3.5
% probability of:
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
+
78.1
+
18.5
=
Annual Growth Rates Dip Below 3%

Australias economy grew less than expected during Q3 as
annual growth dipped below the 3.0% mark to register 2.7%.
And in seasonally adjusted q-o-q terms, real GDP expanded
by just 0.3%. Net exports were up 0.8% (q-o-q), performing
better than in previous quarters, but both private and public
gross fixed capital formation reported falls of 0.5% and 0.2%,
respectively. Most worryingly, real gross domestic income
fell for the second consecutive quarter after shrinking by
0.4% (q-o-q), which effectively signifies an income recession in the country for the first time since the global financial
crisis. This phenomenon has occurred mainly as a result of
a significant decline in the terms of trade index, which fell by
3.5% (q-o-q) in Q3, and by around 8.9% in annual terms. The
deterioration came on the back of a sharp fall in iron ore
prices, owing to a slump in Chinese demand. The Reserve
Bank of Australia has left the official cash rate unchanged at
2.5% throughout this year, but following the recent disappointing GDP data release, speculation is mounting that a cut
may be on the way in early 2015. The central bank next meets
in February, with our panel now foreseeing a 18.5% probability of an interest rate reduction (see box below). Moreover,
growth expectations for this year and next have dipped.
On the plus side, October retail sales beat expectations to
grow by 0.4% (m-o-m), although this figure was somewhat
lower than Septembers revised 1.3% increase. Sales in
department stores rose by 2.0% (m-o-m) and sales of
household goods rose by 1.4% in the build up to the festive
period. Turnover in the retail sector totalled A$23.7bn, rising
for the fifth consecutive month and this helped the weak
Australian dollar post a slight recovery after reaching a fouryear low against the US dollar at the beginning of December.
Direction of Trade 2013
Major Export Markets
(% of Total)
China
36.1
Japan
18.0
South Korea
7.3
India
3.6
GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts

Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
% 2014
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

3.0
100 %
2.8
Most likely rate change mentioned was: None
Major Import Suppliers

(% of Total)
China
19.5
United States
10.4
Japan
7.8
Singapore
5.4
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 Real GDP

Growth
Forecasts (%)
Real GDP Growth and Inflation

%
2.6
Real GDP (% chg yoy)
Consensus
Forecasts
4
3
2.4
2
1
2015 Consumer
Price Inflation
Forecasts (%)
Consumer Prices (% chg yoy)
0
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
2.2
CHINA
DECEMBER 2014
End Year, Annual Total

% change
Gross
Domestic
Product
(Real)
Retail
Sales
(Nominal)
Fixed
Consumer
Producer
Industrial
Asset
Prices
Price Index
Production
Investment (Value Added (Nationwide) for Manufac(Nominal)
tured Goods
of Industry)
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
2014
2015
2014 2015
Merchandise
Exports
(fob, US$bn)
2014 2015
2014 2015 2014
2015
HSBC Economics
JP Morgan Chase
FERI
Bank of China (HK)
Bank of East Asia
China Int'l Capital Corp
Hang Seng Bank
ING
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Barclays Capital
Goldman Sachs Asia
Moody's Analytics
Citigroup
BBVA
Morgan Stanley Asia
Societe Generale
Timetric
UBS
BofA - Merrill Lynch
IHS Economics
Daiwa Capital Markets
7.5
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.2
7.7
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.0
7.3
7.3
7.1
6.8
6.5
7.0
7.0
7.3
7.0
6.9
7.0
7.0
6.8
7.1
6.8
7.1
6.5
6.9
12.8
11.9
12.8
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
13.5
12.0
11.9
na
12.0
12.0
na
na
13.5
12.0
12.0
12.0
na
na
11.8
11.9
13.2
11.6
13.4
11.5
11.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
12.2
11.1
na
12.0
12.0
na
na
13.5
11.7
12.3
12.0
na
na
10.6
11.6
19.0
15.8
16.6
16.0
16.0
15.8
16.5
19.5
16.0
na
na
15.7
15.7
na
na
17.0
16.1
16.0
16.8
na
na
na
15.5
20.0
15.3
16.9
16.0
14.5
14.0
16.0
19.5
14.8
na
na
14.1
14.0
na
na
16.5
15.8
12.6
16.5
na
na
na
14.5
9.1
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.3
8.5
9.0
9.6
8.4
7.4
8.3
na
8.4
8.5
8.3
8.2
8.5
8.4
8.6
na
na
8.3
8.3
9.4
8.6
7.8
8.5
8.7
8.2
9.0
10.0
7.8
6.5
7.7
na
7.8
8.1
7.4
7.9
8.0
7.6
8.3
na
na
7.2
7.7
2.4
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.9
1.5
2.5
1.8
2.5
1.4
2.5
2.0
1.9
1.6
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.3
1.9
2.9
2.0
1.9
2.6
1.5
2.3
1.8
1.5
-1.5
-1.8
-1.5
-1.8
na
-1.8
na
0.0
-1.8
-1.7
na
na
-1.6
-1.7
na
0.0
-1.6
-1.8
-1.5
na
na
-1.7
-1.6
-0.2
-0.8
1.4
-1.5
na
-1.2
na
1.5
-1.5
-1.7
na
na
2.0
-1.0
na
1.0
-1.1
-1.6
-0.2
na
na
0.0
-0.3
13.5
12.9
13.6
12.6
12.5
13.0
13.0
13.5
13.2
11.3
na
13.0
13.1
13.0
na
12.5
na
13.0
13.2
12.5
13.3
12.7
12.5
13.5
12.7
11.8
12.0
12.0
13.0
13.0
13.5
12.5
11.1
na
12.3
12.0
11.1
na
11.5
na
11.5
12.7
12.0
12.7
12.3
11.5
2347
2361
2325
2331
2342
2351
2387
2387
2340
2348
na
2293
na
2334
2345
2386
na
2340
2343
2330
2350
2337
2329
2560
2520
2550
2506
2529
2562
2578
2601
2527
2507
na
2383
na
2493
2502
2625
na
2480
2541
2505
2460
2522
2457
Consensus (Mean)
7.3
7.0
12.2
12.1
16.5
15.7
8.5
8.1
2.1
2.1
-1.5
-0.3
12.9
12.2
2345
2520
Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation
7.4
7.4
7.5
7.2
0.1
7.1
7.1
7.7
6.5
0.3
12.2
12.7
13.5
11.8
0.5
12.3
13.0
13.5
10.6
0.8
16.9
17.5
19.5
15.5
1.2
16.5
17.2
20.0
12.6
2.0
8.5
8.8
9.6
7.4
0.4
8.3
8.7
10.0
6.5
0.8
2.1
2.4
2.4
2.0
0.1
2.4
2.8
2.9
1.4
0.4
-1.3
-0.9
0.0
-1.8
0.6
0.1
0.8
2.0
-1.7
1.2
13.0
13.1
13.6
11.3
0.5
12.2
12.5
13.5
11.1
0.7
2345
2347
2387
2293
22
2525
2548
2625
2383
54
7.4
7.4
2.4
3.0
7.3
7.4
7.3
7.3
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
2.1
2.5
2.1
2.1
2.0
-1.7
-1.4
12.8
12.6
2336
2453
2.6
2.5
-1.7
-0.5
13.0
13.0
2354
2542
Asian Development
Bank (Sep. '14)
Chinese Academy of
Social Science (Dec. '14)
IMF (Oct. '14)
OECD (Nov. '14)
State Info. Ctr. (Nov. '14)
11.5
11.3
15.8
15.5
8.4
8.1
12.0
12.0
15.5
14.0
8.4
7.8
Historical Data
2010
2011
2012
Gross Domestic Product (real)*
10.4
9.3
7.7
7.7
Retail Sales (nominal)*
18.3
17.1
14.3
13.1
Fixed Asset Inv. (nominal)*
23.8
23.8
20.3
19.6
Industrial Production (real)*
15.7
13.9
10.0
9.7
Consumer Prices (Nationwide)*
3.3
5.4
2.6
2.6
Producer Price Index for

Manufactured Goods*
5.5
6.0
-1.7
-1.9
19.7
13.6
13.8
13.6
President - Mr. Xi Jinping. Prime Minister - Mr. Li Keqiang Government Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which elects a State Council comprising
a premier and ministers. Next Party Elections - A new government will be
approved at the National People's Congress in March 2018. Nominal GDP
- Rmb58,667bn (2013). Population - 1.4bn (mid-year 2013). Renminbi/US$
Exchange Rate - 6.150 (average, 2013).

December 8, 2014
2014
Q1 Q2 Q3
Gross Domestic 7.4
Product*
Consumer
Prices*
7.5 7.3
2.3 2.2
2.0
2015
Q4 Q1 Q2
7.2 7.2
1.8
7.1
2.0 2.1
2016
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0
2.1 2.1 2.5 2.7
Trade Balance 16.5 85.9 128.2 107.7 51.4 93.0 118.0 117.9 34.3 79.9
(US$bn)
6
Money
Supply
(M2)
2013
(Value Added of Industry)
Money Supply (M2), end year*

Merch. Exports (fob, US$bn)
1577.8
1898.4 2048.7 2209.4
Merch. Imports (cif, US$bn)
1396.2
1743.5 1818.4 1950.3
Trade Balance (fob-cif, US$bn)
181.5
154.9
230.3
259.1
Current Account Bal. (US$bn)
237.8
136.1
215.4
182.8
General Gov. Budgt. Bal. (Rmb bn) -1050.0
-519.0
5.8
6.6
1-year Base Lending Rate for

Working Capital (%) (end year)
-850.0 -1060.0
6.0
6.0
DECEMBER 2014
CHINA
Rate on
Survey Date
Annual Total
5.6%
Trade
Balance
(fob-cif,
US$bn)
Merchandise
Imports
(cif, US$bn)
2014
2015 2014 2015
1-year Base
General
Government Lending Rate
Budget Bal. for Working
Capital (%)
(Rmb bn)
Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)
2014 2015
End End
2014
2015 Mar '15 Dec '15
2037
1875
1976
1999
2005
1985
2106
2136
1995
1936
na
1969
na
1998
1988
2126
na
1987
1979
1951
1992
1975
1993
2171
1928
2185
2169
2125
2055
2275
2360
2103
2028
na
1952
na
2143
2068
2317
na
2046
2098
2010
2077
2111
2137
310
486
350
332
337
365
281
251
345
412
na
324
na
336
357
260
na
354
364
379
359
362
336
390
591
365
337
404
507
303
242
424
479
na
431
na
350
434
308
na
433
444
496
383
411
320
195
311
210
250
na
na
na
241
216
277
332
212
na
232
251
200
na
258
na
302
237
357
250
199
398
174
245
na
na
na
254
222
270
389
266
na
214
291
250
na
288
na
335
252
426
230
-1350
-1315
-714
-1200
na
-1350
na
-797
-1309
-1955
na
na
na
-1891
na
-1300
na
-1354
na
na
na
-1095
na
-1400
-2071
-745
-1150
na
-1500
na
-801
-1895
-3431
na
na
na
-2040
na
-1430
na
-1651
na
na
na
-949
na
5.4
na
5.6
5.3
na
na
na
5.6
5.6
na
5.4
na
5.6
na
na
5.1
5.4
na
na
na
na
5.4
5.6
5.1
na
5.6
5.0
na
5.4
na
5.6
5.4
na
na
na
5.6
na
na
5.1
5.1
na
na
na
na
5.4
5.6
2000
2118
345
403
255
277
-1302 -1589
5.4
5.3
2014
2055
2136
1875
62
2155
2227
2360
1928
110
331
292
486
251
51
370
321
591
242
82
242
214
357
195
47
246
214
426
174
72
-1296 -1552
-1315 -1387
-714 -745
-1955 -3431
361
734
5.6
5.1
0.2
5.6
5.0
0.2
Beijing Cuts Rates to Support the Economy

On November 22 the People's Bank of China moved to cut a
host of benchmark interest rates, including the 1-year lending
rate from 6.0% previously to 5.6%. This marked the first rate
reduction in more than two years and the move is seen as an
attempt by the government to shore up support for the
economy. With economic activity having slowed to 7.3% (yo-y) in Q3, last month's rate cut appears to underscore
growing concern about near-term growth prospects. While
the authorities have been keen to emphasize the need to
reduce corporate financing costs to support struggling companies, there is no denying that recent economic indicators
have remained lacklustre at best and the move is widely
viewed as an attempt to stimulate growth. Meanwhile, the
economy potentially faces a weak Q4 performance, judging
by the string of subdued data releases for October. Data for
industrial production and nominal retail sales came in below
expectations, with the former expanding by 7.7% (y-o-y) and
the latter by 11.5%. Elsewhere, softness in the economy was
reflected in a drop in the official manufacturing PMI, which
slipped from a reading of 50.8 in October to 50.3 last month.
On top of this, house prices have fallen on a monthly basis
for the seventh straight month in November, underscoring
the continued slump in the property market. Moreover, tighter
regulations aimed at curbing shadow-banking activity have
led to credit growth slowing sharply in October.
With the housing market still struggling following the recent
rate cut and given the fact that inflation remains subdued,
analysts have not ruled out further rate reductions to support
activity. Real GDP growth forecasts have now slipped to
7.3% for this year and 7.0% for next.
Direction of Trade - 2013
(% of Total)
1970
2068
367
385
1989
2089
364
453
275
185
285
221
-1350 -1500
5.6
5.6
-1350 -1500
Hong Kong
United States
Japan
South Korea
South Korea
Japan
United States
Germany
9.4
8.3
7.5
4.8
17.4
16.7
6.8
4.1

(% of Total)

2014
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
7.4
3.5
%
25
20
Consensus
Forecasts
15
10
5
0
-5
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
3.0
09
11
13
Trade and Current Account Balances

US$bn
470
400
330
260
190
120
50
-20
-90
Current
Account
Balance
15
17
7.3
19
Consensus
Forecasts
2.5
2015 Consumer Price

Inflation Forecasts
(%) - left scale
7.2
2.0
7.1
1.5
Trade
Balance
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
1.0
2015 Real GDP

Growth
Forecasts (%) right scale
7.0
DECEMBER 2014
HONG KONG
End Year,
% change
Year
Average
Annual Total
Private
Gross
Gross
Consumer Money Unemploy- Re-Exports Merchandise Merchandise
Exports
Domestic ConsumpFixed
Prices
Imports
Supply ment Rate (US$bn)
tion
(fob, US$bn) (cif, US$bn)
Product
Investment (Compos- (HK$M2)
(%)
ite Index)
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
Oxford Economics
HSBC Economics
Nomura
OCBC Wing Hang Bank
JP Morgan Chase
BBVA
ING
Citigroup
Barclays Capital
Bank of China (HK)
IHS Economics
UBS
Goldman Sachs Asia
Bank of East Asia
Hang Seng Bank
Credit Suisse
Daiwa Capital Markets
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
3.1
3.5
3.2
3.2
2.6
2.5
3.3
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.8
3.0
2.3
2.7
2.4
2.6
3.0
1.8
2.1
2.1
1.9
2.5
2.3
1.2
na
3.9
3.1
1.9
2.0
3.0
2.0
1.8
1.9
1.0
1.8
2.1
2.5
na
Consensus (Mean)
2.2
2.7
2.2 2.9
Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation
2.2
2.4
2.5
1.9
0.2
2.8
3.0
3.5
1.8
0.4
2.3
2.7
3.9
1.0
0.7
2.5
2.2
3.0
Asian Development
Bank (Sep. '14)
Government of
Hong Kong (Nov. '14)
IMF (Oct. '14)
2.9
1.5
3.1
3.3
3.3
na
3.9
5.0
1.7
2.9
4.5
2.7
2.3
2.1
1.5
2.1
3.3
2.7
na
0.1 4.1
4.0
3.4 10.5
8.5
3.3
3.4 469.6 501.8
479.8 512.9 546.3 583.0
3.9
3.8
4.4
3.4
0.3
3.4 10.0 8.7

3.5 10.5 8.7
4.3 14.0 12.0
2.0
5.0 0.3
0.6
2.5 3.2
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.2
0.1
3.5
3.4
4.2
3.3
0.2
482.6
489.3
500.7
459.6
8.5
3.2
3.8
3.7
3.5
3.3
4.3
3.9
3.5
3.8
3.1
3.1
2014
2015
Q4 Q1
2016
Q2
Q3
Q4
472.5
472.2
488.5
408.3
31.1
507.1
508.9
531.0
428.6
38.3
518.7
527.0
558.0
482.4
19.9
549.3
555.5
575.6
530.5
11.2
589.2
597.2
618.0
542.8
21.5
Historical Data
December 8, 2014
Q1 Q2
2010 2011 2012 2013

Private Consumption*
6.8
4.8
1.5
2.9
6.1
8.4
4.1
4.3
Gross Fixed Investment*
7.7
10.2
6.8
3.3
Consumer Prices (composite index)*
2.3
5.3
4.1
4.3
Money Supply (HK$M2), end yr*
8.1
12.9
11.1
12.4
Unemployment Rate (annual avg.)
4.3
3.4
3.3
3.4
Re-Exports (US$bn)
381.2 420.3 435.2 452.0
390.1 428.7 442.8 459.0
433.1 483.6 504.4 523.6
Trade Balance (fob-cif, US$bn)
-43.0 -54.9 -61.6
Gross Domestic 2.6 1.8 2.7

Product*
2.0
2.4
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.7 2.5
4.2 3.6 4.9
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.5 3.4
Trade
-16.0-18.1-16.0-20.5-17.6-18.4-17.1-24.0-18.0-19.4
Balance (US$bn)
-64.6
13.4
9.6
3.0
2.3
75.1
66.7
64.8
21.8
3 mth Interbank Rate, % (end yr)
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
Prime Lending Rate, % (end yr)
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
Goods and Services Bal. (US$bn)
572.0
na
606.5
588.9
590.9
na
618.0
554.6
569.1
na
610.7
581.0
564.9
591.9
577.2
577.3
612.5
569.5
542.8
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.6
na
3.4
3.3
4.2
3.5
3.4
3.5
na
na
na
Consumer
Prices*
534.6
na
552.7
549.3
547.3
na
536.0
530.9
546.0
na
560.3
548.1
541.6
548.6
547.1
544.6
575.6
547.1
530.5
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.3
na
3.3
3.2
3.6
3.5
3.2
3.3
na
na
na
Q3
526.4
na
531.7
515.7
513.7
na
558.0
482.4
498.9
na
527.9
507.3
494.4
525.2
501.2
498.7
534.8
501.1
489.7
6.9
10.0
na
12.0
0.3
9.5
10.2
na
na
na
9.0
10.1
na
5.0
7.5
12.0
7.4
11.0
na
Chief Executive - Mr. Leung Chun-ying Government - Special Administrative Region of China. Governed by the Legislative Council (Legco),
which is composed of 30 directly elected members and another 30
elected by functional constituencies. Next Election - 2017 Chief Executive election; 2016 (Legco and District Councils). Nominal GDP HK$2,126bn (2013). Population - 7.2mn (mid-year, 2013). HK$/US$
Q2
480.5
na
482.5
481.5
477.8
na
486.8
459.6
477.6
na
488.8
478.0
473.9
482.6
477.3
474.9
500.7
477.3
477.1
12.6
10.3
na
10.5
13.7
9.5
10.4
na
na
na
10.0
10.2
na
5.0
10.5
12.5
7.3
14.0
na
Q1
2015
2.7
4.0
4.3
3.5
3.5
3.1
3.5
3.5
4.2
3.2
3.0
3.6
2.3
3.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
2.0
4.1
4.3
4.2
7.9
1.4
1.6
na
na
na
508.8
na
na
531.0
428.6
na
na
527.0
na
na
na
494.0
na
521.4
na
na
2014
3.5
4.0
4.2
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.1
3.4
4.3
3.8
4.3
4.1
4.1
4.1
3.7
4.0
1.5
3.2
5.1
-4.1
3.1
na
na
na
474.6
na
na
488.5
408.3
na
na
487.9
na
na
na
470.0
na
488.4
na
na
2015
3.4
7.9
4.0
3.9
2.8
2.6
4.2
4.0
na
5.0
6.0
3.9
1.4
5.1
3.0
2.0
6.5
3.9
na
3.0
3.6
5.0
1.5
1.0
-3.7
-4.1
-0.3
2.2
-1.8
-1.5
3.8
4.1
na
-1.4
4.2
-2.7
-2.7
-2.1
1.5
-2.5
5.1
3.5
na
2014
Consolidated Budgt Bal. (HK$bn)
Data for fiscal years beginning April 1 ending March 31 (i.e. 2013 =
April 2013 to March 2014, corresponding to FY13/14).
DECEMBER 2014
Fiscal Years
April-March
Annual Total
Trade
Balance
(fob-cif,
US$bn)
Consolidated
Budget
Balance
(HK$bn)
Goods &
Services
Balance
(US$bn)
2014 2015
2014 2015
-54.0
na
-70.3
-67.8
-69.5
na
-49.2
-71.3
-68.4
na
-71.4
-70.1
-67.7
-66.0
-69.8
-69.7
-75.0
-69.8
-53.4
6.7 13.2
2.8 5.3
2.9 4.0
na
na
-2.2 -4.6
3.0 4.3
6.5 8.5
6.7 9.8
na
na
na
na
5.9 6.5
2.3 2.6
2.8 4.4
5.6 11.3
na
na
na
na
2.2 4.0
na
na
na
na
-45.6
na
-74.8
-73.1
-77.2
na
-60.0
-72.2
-70.2
na
-82.7
-73.7
-70.6
-66.7
-76.0
-78.6
-77.7
-68.4
-53.1
-66.5 -70.0
-66.7
-66.2
-49.2
-75.0
7.4
-70.5
-70.2
-45.6
-82.7
9.8
3.8
HONG KONG
5.8
3.5 5.4
4.6 6.0
6.7 13.2
-2.2 -4.6
2.6 4.7
FY
FY

0.4%
5.0%
3-month
Interbank
Rate (%)
Prime
Lending
Rate (%)
End
End
End
End
14/15 15/16 Mar '15 Dec '15 Mar '15 Dec '15
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
17.5
3.5
na
na
20.0 20.0
18.5 -18.0
na
na
na
na
20.0
5.0
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
0.4
0.8
0.4
0.4
na
na
0.4
0.4
0.4
na
0.4
na
na
na
0.4
na
na
na
na
0.6
1.3
0.7
1.0
na
na
0.7
1.0
0.6
na
0.7
na
na
na
1.5
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
5.0
na
na
5.0
na
na
na
5.0
5.0
na
na
5.0
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
5.3
na
na
5.0
na
na
na
5.5
5.3
na
na
5.3
na
na
na
na
19.0
2.6
0.4
0.9
5.0
5.3
23.6 10.7
24.4
9.9
20.0 20.0
17.5 -18.0
1.2 15.6
0.8
0.4
0.1
1.5
0.6
0.3
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.5
5.0
0.2
Economy Exceeds Expectations in Q3

National accounts data for the September quarter showed
that the economy grew at a faster-than-expected rate after
accelerating by 2.7% (y-o-y). This was much stronger than
the prior quarter's 1.8%, and in q-o-q terms, the economy
bounced back from a slight contraction of 0.1% in Q2 to
advance by 1.7% in Q3. The acceleration was led by private
consumption growth, which expanded by 1.9% (q-o-q), reversing a 1.0% contraction in Q2. In the same period, exports
of goods also picked up pace to be up 2.0%. Despite the
upbeat GDP data, government officials are not particularly
optimistic about the outlook for Q4, especially in the wake of
civil unrest. The authorities are concerned that ongoing prodemocracy demonstrations will hurt local sentiment as well
as investor confidence in the territory. At its height, tens of
thousands of demonstrators joined the protest movement,
causing widespread disruption to the local economy. The
latest development has seen a fresh outbreak of violent
clashes between demonstrators and the police at the start of
this month after protesters tried to surround government
headquarters. However, as support for the movement has
waned there are growing calls for the protests to end.
Meanwhile, October's retail sales report is the first piece of
data release that can be used to gauge the impact of the
demonstrations on the territory. While the launch of new
smartphone models helped to shore up the sale of consumer
durable goods, retail activity by sales and volume slowed in
October to 1.4% (y-o-y) and 4.3%, respectively (4.8% and
6.6% in September). Retail sales have already come under
pressure following a corruption crackdown by Beijing earlier
this year and scores of retailers have reported a deterioration
in the retail climate in the wake of civil unrest.
Direction of Trade - 2013
(% of Total)
China
United States
Japan
Germany
9.1 -28.3
Consensus
Forecasts
10
54.8
9.3
3.8
2.1

(% of Total)
China
47.8
Japan
7.1
Singapore
6.1
United States
5.4

2014
% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
4.0
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 Consumer
Price Inflation
Forecasts (%)
3.8
-5
-10
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
External Balances
US$bn
25
Goods and
Services
Balance
11
13
15
17
19
Consensus
Forecasts
3.6
3.4
3.2
2015 Real GDP

Growth
Forecasts (%)
3.0
5
-15
-35
-55
Trade
Balance
-75
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
2.8
2.6
INDIA
DECEMBER 2014
Average % Change on Previous Fiscal Year
Annual data are for fiscal

years beginning April 1
Gross
Domestic
Product
Gross
Industrial
Fixed
Production
Investment
FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15
FY14 FY15
End Year, %
change
Annual Total
Money
Supply
(M3)
Merchandise Merchandise
Imports
Exports
(fob, customs (cif, customs
basis, US$bn) basis, US$bn)
Consumer
Prices
Wholesale
Prices
FY14 FY15
FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15
FY14 FY15
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.3
6.3
6.6
6.8
6.5
6.6
5.8
5.8
na
na
6.5
6.5
5.7
6.5
6.2
6.6
6.1
5.8
6.3
6.0
2.8
4.1
6.8
4.1
4.1
3.4
3.0
8.3
6.2
3.6
na
3.4
3.8
3.8
6.0
5.0
2.7
4.6
na
5.9
6.4
11.0
5.5
7.3
5.1
4.9
na
na
6.3
na
3.5
7.5
7.6
8.6
7.1
5.6
6.5
na
2.9
4.0
3.6
3.0
3.1
2.8
3.4
3.0
4.6
2.7
3.9
3.5
3.0
2.8
2.9
3.2
na
na
4.5
3.7
7.1
6.5
5.0
6.7
4.8
4.0
na
na
4.2
5.9
4.0
4.9
4.0
5.2
4.0
na
na
9.3
6.5
6.4
7.0
6.8
7.0
6.6
6.7
6.7
7.8
6.7
7.2
7.1
6.7
6.6
6.6
8.3
6.5
6.7
6.8
6.8
5.9
6.4
6.0
5.9
6.2
6.2
na
na
5.8
6.2
6.3
6.0
5.5
5.4
6.8
5.6
6.0
6.4
3.7
4.8
na
3.9
3.4
3.5
4.3
3.8
5.3
na
na
4.3
3.5
na
3.8
5.3
na
na
4.4
5.6
5.9
na
4.1
4.2
3.9
4.8
na
na
na
na
3.9
4.5
na
1.5
5.1
na
na
4.0
13.5
15.4
12.7
na
12.8
12.2
14.0
12.5
na
16.0
na
14.2
14.0
13.4
12.0
13.8
na
na
17.0
11.5
16.8
13.5
na
15.3
13.5
15.0
na
na
17.0
na
15.8
14.5
9.2
13.5
14.5
na
na
18.0
Consensus (Mean)
5.6
6.3
4.5
6.6
3.3
5.3
6.9
6.1
4.2
4.3
13.8
14.5 333.1 360.7
474.8 507.8
Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation
5.6
5.5
5.8
5.3
0.1
6.3
6.2
6.8
5.7
0.3
5.1
4.8
8.3
2.7
1.5
6.7
6.6
11.0
3.5
1.8
3.6
4.0
4.6
2.7
0.6
5.5
5.7
9.3
3.7
1.6
7.3
8.1
8.3
6.4
0.5
6.5
7.1
6.8
5.4
0.4
4.7
5.5
5.3
3.4
0.6
5.1
5.5
5.9
1.5
1.2
14.0
14.4
17.0
12.0
1.5
14.9
14.9
18.0
9.2
2.4
364.6
367.3
382.0
325.5
15.5
479.8
488.7
506.8
439.0
16.4
5.5
6.3
7.1
6.3
5.7
4.3
5.5
3.8
FY11
6.7
12.3
2.9
8.3
8.9
13.5
306.0
489.3
-183.4
-78.2
FY12
4.5
0.8
1.1
10.2
7.4
13.6
300.4
490.7
-190.3
-88.2
FY10
8.9
11.0
8.2
10.4
Consumer Prices*2
9.6
Wholesale Prices*
16.1
Money Supply (M3), end yr*
251.1
369.8
Trade Balance, (fob-cif, US$bn) -118.6
Current Account Bal. (US$bn) -48.1
Gross Central Government
-3736
Fiscal Balance (Rs bn)
7.1
91-day T-bill Rate, % (end yr)
8.1
10 Yr Bond Yield, % (end yr)
Prime Minister- Mr. Narendra Modi (BJP Party). Government - The Hindu
nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party won 282 seats out of a total of 543 in the lower
house of parliament. Next Election - 2019 (Parliamentary). Nominal GDP
- Rs105.4tn (2013/14). Population - 1.3bn (mid-year, 2013). Rupee/US$
Exchange Rate - 58.45 (average, 2013/14).

December 8, 2014
2015
2016
Q1 Q2
Q3
Q4 Q1 Q2
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Gross Domestic 4.6 5.7

Product*
5.3
5.6 5.8
6.0
6.3 6.4 6.5
6.8
8.3 8.1
7.4
5.5 5.9
5.9
5.8 6.2 6.2
5.8
Consumer
Prices*
486.8
484.5
na
483.0
465.4
454.4
475.2
460.0
506.8
482.9
480.2
450.6
487.8
na
473.5
479.6
439.0
484.9
477.3
541.9
528.0
na
549.1
501.1
474.0
522.0
na
na
524.0
504.2
471.0
529.3
na
498.1
509.5
432.4
na
524.5
520.7
531.0
549.1
432.4
31.4
Historical Data1
2014
334.7
337.6
343.9
319.1
6.0
380.9
359.8
na
382.0
363.0
375.1
364.8
na
na
370.0
358.0
342.8
365.7
na
341.3
359.6
325.5
na
361.4
FY15
FERI
HSBC
Credit Suisse
Morgan Stanley
IHS Economics
Oxford Economics
BBVA
Confed of Indian Industry
India Ratings & Research
Goldman Sachs
Citigroup
Bk of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
Deutsche Bank
Moody's Analytics
Nomura
Timetric
UBS
CRISIL
JP Morgan Chase
Asian Development
Bank (Sep. '14)
OECD (Nov. '14)
334.9
336.2
na
340.4
331.1
332.3
327.2
326.7
343.9
334.2
336.1
324.9
337.0
na
331.4
335.4
319.1
334.5
337.4
FY14
FY13
4.7
-0.1
-0.1
9.5
6.0
13.2
314.4
450.2
-135.8
-32.4
-5160 -4902 -5245

8.9
8.2
8.9
8.6
8.0
8.8
All data are for fiscal years (i.e. FY12 = April '12 to March '13)
Historical data through FY11 shows the CPI for Industrial Workers. From
FY12 onwards data refers to the All India Combined (Rural plus Urban)
CPI series, which we have polled for with effect from February 2014.
2
Trade
-28.8 -35.9-37.6-35.3-32.7-38.0 -36.9-36.9-34.3-38.1
Balance (US$bn)
10
DECEMBER 2014
INDIA
Fiscal Years
(Apr-Mar)
Annual Total

8.2%
7.9%
10 Year
91-day
Current
Gross
Account Central Govt Treasury Government
Bill Rate (%) Bond Yield
Balance
Fiscal
(%)
(US$bn)
Balance,
(Rsbn)
Trade
Balance
(fob-cif,
US$bn)
FY14 FY15
FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15
-151.8
-148.3
na
-142.5
-134.3
-122.1
-148.0
-133.3
-162.9
-148.7
-144.1
-125.7
-150.8
na
-142.1
-144.2
-119.8
-150.3
-140.0
-68.2
-27.9
-30.6
-38.5
-41.6
-31.6
-34.9
-42.6
-48.7
-41.5
-33.2
-37.8
-33.6
na
-27.6
-39.5
-15.8
-32.2
-27.1
-6078
-4694
na
-5257
na
-5294
na
-5312
-5311
na
na
na
-5655
na
-5216
na
na
-5343
-5848
End
End
na
8.6
na
na
na
8.6
na
na
8.2
na
7.9
na
8.0
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
8.1
na
na
na
8.5
na
na
na
na
7.4
na
7.5
na
na
na
na
na
na
8.6
8.0
na
na
na
8.1
7.8
na
8.1
na
8.3
na
7.6
na
8.0
na
na
8.0
na
9.0
7.3
na
na
na
8.0
7.5
na
na
na
7.8
na
7.2
na
7.5
na
na
na
na
-141.7 -147.1 -36.3 -41.1 -5401 -5463
8.3
7.9
8.0
7.7
-156.2
-163.7
-98.9
-168.2
21.9
-81.4
-37.9
-46.8
-50.9
-50.0
-32.0
-52.1
na
na
-34.0
-30.0
-36.9
-37.1
na
-37.8
-44.5
-4.9
na
-40.4
End
-6714
-4553
na
-5498
na
-5391
na
na
na
na
na
na
-5620
na
-5004
na
na
na
na
-145.1
-151.1
-119.8
-162.9
11.5
-161.0
-168.2
na
-167.2
-138.1
-98.9
-157.2
na
na
-154.0
-146.2
-128.2
-163.6
na
-156.8
-149.9
-106.9
na
-163.1
End
Mar '15 Dec '15 Mar '15 Dec '15
-37.6 -47.7 -5433 -5578

-42.8 -51.1 -5451 -5827
-15.8 -4.9 -4694 -4553
-68.2 -81.4 -6078 -6714
10.9 16.0 381 726
8.6
7.9
0.3
8.5
7.4
0.5
8.6
7.6
0.3
9.0
7.2
0.6
Pressure Builds for a Rate Cut

Although economic activity slowed in the three months to
September, real GDP growth still beat analysts' expectations
to come in at 5.3% from a year earlier. This figure was slightly
higher than the 5.1% recorded in the corresponding period of
FY13/14, but somewhat weaker than the 5.7% pace posted
three months earlier. The better-than-expected GDP reading
was boosted by growth in services and stronger farm output
in spite of a poor monsoon. Encouragingly, growth for the first
six months of the current fiscal year now stands at 5.5%, well
exceeding the 4.9% pace notched up in the same period of
FY13/14. Nonetheless, the growth slowdown, although not as
severe as many had feared, will undoubtedly increase pressure on the government to step up its reform efforts. Premier
Modi's government was swept into power in May on the back
of its pro-reform mandate, but barring plans to open up certain
sectors to foreign investors and cutting fuel subsidies, it has
yet to make any major inroads on the reform front. While
investors will be keen to see the government deliver on its
promise to embrace structural reforms, pressure is also
building for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest
rates. Despite calls for looser monetary policy the RBI
remained on hold at this month's meeting but hinted at a
possible rate cut early next year provided inflation continues
to head lower and developments on the fiscal front remain
encouraging. In October, lower global oil prices drove the
wholesale price index down to 5-year low of 1.8% (y-o-y), while
consumer price rises hit an all time low of 5.52%.
In spite of renewed softness evident in the latest GDP report,
growth expectations for this year have remained firm at 5.6%,
which is slightly above the central bank's 5.5% target. Meanwhile, inflation forecasts have dipped again this month.
(% of Total)
United States
12.4
United Arab Emirates 10.2
China
4.6
Singapore
4.3
-35.3 -39.0
Real GDP Growth and Inflation (fiscal years)

For FY12/13-FY19/20, data refers to the
All India Combined (Rural plus Urban)
CPI. Prior data refers to the CPI-Industrial
Workers.
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Consumer Prices
(% chg yoy)
Consensus
Forecasts
2013
%
Apr Jun
9.0

Aug
Oct Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct Dec
8.5
8.0
7.5
93
US$bn
30
-10
-50
-90
-130
-170
-210
-250

(% of Total)
China
11.0
Saudi Arabia
7.8
United States
4.8
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15

(fiscal years)
17
7.0
FY2014 (April 2014 March 2015) Con-
6.5
sumer Price Inflation

Forecasts (%)
19
Consensus
Forecasts
6.0
Current Account
Balance
5.5
Trade
Balance
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
5.0
4.5
FY2014 (April 2014 March 2015) Real GDP

Growth
Forecasts (%)
11
INDONESIA
DECEMBER 2014
Household
Gross
Manufac- Consumer
Gross
Fixed
turing
Prices
Domestic Consumption
Investment Production
Product
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
Money
Supply
(M2)
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
Non-Oil
and Gas
Exports
(fob, US$bn)
Merchan- Merchandise
dise
Exports
Imports
(fob,
(fob,US$bn)
US$bn)
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
OCBC Bank
HSBC Economics
Oxford Economics
Goldman Sachs Asia
ING
Mandiri Sekuritas
Danareksa Securities
Citigroup
IHS Economics
Nomura
FERI
Credit Suisse
ANZ Bank
Barclays Capital
DBS Bank
JP Morgan Chase
5.5
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
5.7
6.0
5.8
5.8
5.4
5.5
5.3
5.4
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.0
5.4
5.3
5.5
5.1
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.0
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.4
na
5.0
5.3
5.8
5.0
4.9
5.5
5.2
5.0
4.1
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.7
4.7
5.0
5.3
5.4
na
4.8
4.6
5.0
4.9
5.2
4.9
4.6
5.1
na
4.8
4.8
5.1
4.5
4.4
4.8
4.7
5.2
-1.0
5.6
5.8
6.8
6.1
7.6
7.0
6.2
6.7
na
6.2
5.2
6.3
6.0
5.1
5.4
4.8
6.4
6.0
na
4.1
na
na
na
4.6
na
4.8
na
4.8
na
na
5.1
4.0
4.8
na
5.0
na
na
5.0
na
na
na
5.0
na
5.2
na
4.5
na
na
6.2
4.1
5.4
na
5.7
na
6.0
6.0
6.1
6.3
5.7
6.4
6.6
6.3
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.0
6.3
6.2
6.4
6.3
6.4
6.4
5.1
4.6
5.9
7.0
7.4
6.0
7.0
7.3
7.2
6.9
7.5
6.0
7.6
6.3
6.7
5.8
6.5
6.8
na
9.7
6.9
na
12.1
11.0
11.0
12.4
na
12.0
na
11.8
12.5
11.0
11.5
na
11.0
11.0
na
11.4
9.0
na
13.7
12.0
11.6
16.3
na
11.8
na
13.0
12.4
10.0
11.5
na
11.5
10.0
Consensus (Mean)
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.1
4.5
6.1
4.6
5.1
6.3
6.5
11.1
11.9 146.7 155.7 180.7 188.5 175.3 180.5
Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation
5.1
5.2
5.5
4.9
0.1
5.4
5.6
6.0
5.0
0.3
5.3
5.4
5.6
5.0
0.2
5.1
5.3
5.8
4.1
0.4
4.5
4.7
5.2
-1.0
1.4
6.0
6.3
7.6
4.8
0.7
4.6
4.6
5.1
4.0
0.4
5.2
5.3
6.2
4.1
0.7
6.1
6.1
6.6
5.7
0.2
6.2
6.0
7.6
4.6
0.8
11.5
10.2
12.5
6.9
1.5
12.4
11.9
16.3
9.0
1.8
Asian Development
Bank (Sep. '14)
IMF (Oct. '14)
OECD (Nov. '14)
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.8
5.5
5.2
5.8
6.0
6.4
6.9
6.7
6.2
5.5
5.4
4.9
5.2

President: Joko Widodo Government - The Indonesian Democratic Party
of Struggle (PDI-P) won the 2014 April legislative elections with 109 seats out
of a total of 560 seats. They have formed a coallition with the NasDem Party,
National Awakening Party (PKB) and the Hanura Party, giving the coaltion
control of 207 seats. Next Elections - House and Senate (July, 2019).
Nominal GDP - Rp9,084tn (2013). Population - 249.9mn (mid-year, 2013).
Rupiah/US$ Exchange Rate - 10,411 (average, 2013).

December 8, 2014
2014
Q1 Q2
2015
Q3 Q4 Q1
2016
Q2
Gross Domestic 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.8 5.1

Product*
5.2
7.8 7.1 4.4 6.2 7.1
7.1
Consumer
Prices*
Q3
5.3
7.0
Q4 Q1 Q2
5.5 5.6 5.8
5.6 4.5 4.4
Manufacturing 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.6
Production*
12
Annual Total
End Year,
% change
na
na
na
na
na
141.1
150.2
147.6
na
na
na
na
na
na
145.6
na
149.2
na
147.5
147.4
150.2
141.1
3.6
na
na
na
na
na
150.1
156.6
168.6
na
na
na
na
na
na
148.3
na
155.0
na
156.2
156.7
168.6
148.3
8.0
na
179.6
178.3
181.5
na
182.5
179.3
191.0
176.2
180.2
179.9
182.1
179.5
na
175.6
na
180.0
184.1
182.0
184.2
191.0
175.6
3.7
na
178.9
184.4
190.5
na
194.1
183.0
216.2
174.0
181.9
185.1
200.2
195.6
na
173.9
na
194.0
187.8
191.2
197.0
216.2
173.9
11.2
na
173.9
178.3
182.0
na
180.1
169.7
182.5
169.8
171.0
172.8
178.1
168.7
na
168.5
na
180.0
178.9
175.1
177.1
182.5
168.5
5.2
na
170.7
181.2
184.0
na
189.5
169.5
198.6
164.7
172.1
177.8
193.9
182.1
na
165.6
na
195.0
182.5
182.2
187.6
198.6
164.7
11.0
Historical Data
2010

6.2
4.7
8.5
Manufacturing Production*
4.7
Consumer Prices*
5.1
15.4
Non-Oil and Gas
Exports (fob, US$bn)
121.3
Merch. Exports (fob, US$bn) 150.0
Merch. Imports (fob, US$bn) 119.0
Trade Balance (fob-fob, US$bn) 31.0
Current Account Bal. (US$bn) 5.1
3 mth Deposit Rate, % (end yr) 6.7
10 Yr Govt Bond, % (end yr)
7.5
2011
6.5
2012
6.3
2013
5.8
4.7
5.3
5.3
8.3
9.7
4.7
6.1
5.7
5.6
5.3
4.0
6.4
16.4
15.0
12.8
153.0
151.8 148.5
191.1
187.3 182.1
157.3
178.7 176.3
33.8
1.7
8.7
5.8
-24.4 -29.1
5.5
4.9
8.0
6.0
5.5
8.4
INDONESIA
DECEMBER 2014

7.1%
8.0%
Annual Total
Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)
Trade
Balance
(fob-fob,
US$bn)
2014
2015
10 Year
Government
Bond
Yield (%)
3-month
Deposit
Rate (%)
2014
2015
End
End
End
Mar '15 Dec '15
End
Mar '15 Dec '15
na
5.7
0.0
-0.5
na
2.4
9.7
8.5
6.4
9.2
7.0
4.1
10.9
na
7.1
na
0.0
5.2
na
8.2
3.2
6.5
na
4.5
13.5
17.5
9.3
9.8
7.3
6.4
13.5
na
8.3
na
-1.0
5.3
na
-26.0
-23.4
-25.7
-25.0
-25.4
-29.3
-12.9
-26.7
-28.2
-26.5
-27.2
-26.0
-25.5
-25.0
-24.3
-26.0
-25.0
na
-21.4
-22.0
-20.9
-29.1
-22.8
-28.4
-9.4
-25.4
-27.6
-23.5
-24.6
-24.3
-24.2
-24.9
-16.9
-24.0
-26.7
na
7.8
8.0
na
na
na
na
7.6
7.3
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
7.1
na
na
7.5
8.4
na
na
na
na
7.2
7.3
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
7.1
na
na
7.8
8.1
na
na
7.5
8.4
8.1
7.9
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
7.5
8.2
na
na
7.0
8.2
7.6
8.3
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
5.4
8.0
-25.2
-23.3
7.6
7.5
8.0
7.8
6.9
7.1
10.9
-0.5
3.7
8.9
9.4
17.5
-1.0
4.7
-25.2
-25.9
-12.9
-29.3
3.5
-22.1
-23.7
-9.4
-29.1
4.6
8.0
7.1
0.4
8.4
7.1
0.5
8.4
7.5
0.3
8.3
7.0
0.5
-27.6
Fuel Subsidies Cut

Indonesia's new president, Joko Widodo, has fulfilled his preelection promise to cut fuel subsidies by hiking both petrol
and diesel prices by more than 30% last month. The move
is highly unpopular and has already sparked some minor
street protests in Jakarta. However, it is hoped that it will
save the government more than US$8bn in 2015 and enable
funds to be channelled towards much needed improvements
in the nations infrastructure. Combined with falling oil prices,
the fuel hike of around 2,000 rupiah or US$0.16 per litre
should curb imports and thus help to correct the countrys
large current account deficit, which looks set to reach
US$-25.2bn this year. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia responded
immediately to the controversial fuel price hike by raising its
base rate for the first time this year to 7.75% in a bid to
contain an associated rise in inflationary pressures. Indeed,
inflation has already started to climb higher after data for
November showed that consumer prices soared by 1.5% (mo-m). This translated into a 6.2% increase in annual terms,
and the consensus now reckons that inflation will advance by
6.5% in 2015, following a 6.3% increase this year.
In another sign underscoring the new government's commitment to economic reforms, the president outlined a series of
possible reform measures at last months G20 summit.
These included plans to increase the nations tax-to-GDP
ratio to 16% from its current 12-13% level and to simplify the
current business licensing system. It is hoped the latter will
help facilitate the setting up of new businesses in Indonesia,
and in turn, encourage greater levels of foreign investment in
the country. The economy looks set to grow by 5.4% in 2015,
which is much lower than the 7% annual average growth
targeted by the government over the next five years.
(% of Total)
Japan
14.8
China
12.4
Singapore
9.1
United States
8.6
-26.5
Inflation
1998 = 58.4%
25

15
Consensus
Forecasts
2014
% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
6.8
5
-5
6.6
-15
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
6.4
6.2
US$bn
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40

(% of Total)
China
16.0
Singapore
13.7
Japan
10.3
Malaysia
7.1

Trade Balance
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 Consumer
Price Inflation
Forecasts (%)
6.0
Consensus
Forecasts
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
Current Account Balance
2015 Real GDP

Growth
Forecasts (%)
5.0
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
13
DECEMBER 2014
JAPAN
Annual Total
Gross
Private
Business Industrial Consumer Domestic Total Cash New Car Housing
Domestic Consump- Investment Production Prices
Corporate Earnings RegistraStarts
Product
tion
Goods
(nominal) tions (mn)
(mn)
Prices
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
JP Morgan - Japan
Nippon Steel & Sumikin Rsrch
Deutsche Securities
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
Hitachi Research Institute
Daiwa Institute of Research
Mizuho Research Institute
NLI Research Institute
Oxford Economics
Mizuho Securities
Citigroup Japan
HSBC
Toyota Motor Corporation
Nomura Securities
Credit Suisse
Dai-Ichi Life Research
IHS Economics
ITOCHU Institute
Japan Ctr for Econ Research
Mitsubishi Research Institute
Goldman Sachs
Mitsubishi UFJ Research
UBS
Morgan Stanley
1.1
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
1.6
1.6
2.8
1.4
1.2
1.5
1.2
2.0
0.9
0.8
1.7
0.9
0.6
1.2
1.5
0.3
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
1.2
0.6
-0.1
-0.9
-0.9
-0.8
-0.9
-0.9
-1.0
-0.9
-1.0
-0.9
-0.9
-1.0
-1.0
-0.9
-1.1
-1.2
-1.1
-1.1
-1.1
-1.1
-1.0
-1.2
-1.0
-1.1
-1.2
0.5
1.0
1.9
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.6
1.3
0.1
1.1
1.1
0.5
0.3
1.0
0.3
-0.6
0.8
1.0
-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.2
na
6.2
4.5
5.5
5.7
5.5
4.6
5.9
5.6
3.7
4.9
5.3
5.4
8.0
-4.7
4.2
4.5
4.4
4.9
4.0
4.9
4.1
4.6
4.1
na
na
4.0
3.1
1.8
3.6
0.4
2.7
4.0
1.3
-0.1
3.9
1.9
0.1
5.0
-7.1
0.0
2.5
4.0
5.4
1.0
3.9
0.6
2.2
4.4
na
1.8
2.2
2.1
2.1
1.8
2.0
2.1
1.9
2.2
2.3
2.4
1.6
1.7
na
2.1
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.6
1.7
0.7
2.6
1.0
1.4
0.2
2.5
2.1
1.2
1.5
1.9
4.6
0.2
1.6
na
1.5
1.5
2.1
2.2
2.5
1.2
1.4
0.7
0.7
1.8
3.7
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.6
2.9
3.2
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.2
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.2
2.1
1.3
1.4
1.1
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.7
2.4
1.0
0.9
1.2
1.0
1.5
1.4
1.1
1.6
0.9
2.0
1.5
3.7
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.2
na
3.4
na
3.3
na
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.2
na
na
2.9
-0.2
0.9
-0.4
-0.3
1.4
2.3
1.0
0.9
1.6
0.2
na
0.9
na
0.4
na
0.8
1.1
2.0
0.9
0.3
2.1
-0.9
na
na
na
na
0.6
0.9
na
0.6
na
0.8
1.1
1.5
1.5
na
0.9
na
0.9
na
na
na
1.0
0.9
na
na
0.8
na
na
na
na
2.3
1.6
na
0.5
na
1.2
1.6
0.7
1.5
na
1.2
na
1.0
na
na
na
1.3
0.7
na
na
0.5
na
na
na
na
2.8
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
2.9
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
2.8
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
2.5
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
0.89
na
na
0.90
na
0.89
0.89
0.89
0.87
na
na
na
na
na
na
0.89
0.89
0.89
0.88
na
0.87
na
na
Consensus (Mean)
0.3
1.2
-1.0
0.5
4.6
2.1
2.1
1.7
2.8
1.4
3.3
0.9
1.0
1.2
2.9
2.6
0.89 0.90
Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation
1.0
1.2
1.1
0.0
0.2
1.3
1.3
2.8
0.3
0.5
-0.6
-0.2
-0.1
-1.2
0.2
0.6
0.5
1.9
-0.6
0.5
6.4
7.2
8.0
-4.7
2.2
3.3
3.2
5.4
-7.1
2.6
2.3
3.1
2.6
1.6
0.2
1.7
2.0
4.6
0.2
1.0
2.8
2.8
3.2
2.6
0.1
1.9
1.8
2.4
0.9
0.4
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.1
0.1
1.8
2.2
2.9
-0.9
1.0
0.9
0.8
1.5
0.6
0.3
1.1
1.0
2.3
0.5
0.5
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
0.1
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.5
0.2
0.89
0.90
0.90
0.87
0.01
IMF (Oct. '14)
OECD (Nov. '14)
0.9
0.4
0.8
0.8
-0.9
1.0
2.7
2.9
2.0
1.8

2010 2011
4.7 -0.4
2.8
0.3
Business Investment*
0.7
4.1
15.6 -2.6
Consumer Prices*
-0.7 -0.3
Domestic Corporate Goods Prices*
-0.1
1.5
Total Cash Earnings (nominal)*
0.5 -0.2
New Car Registrations, mn
2.9
2.4
Housing Starts, mn
0.81 0.83
5.1
4.6
Current Account, tn
19.0 10.0
General Govt Budget Balance,
SNA basis, fisc. years1, tn
-40.4 -42.0
Prime Minister - Mr. Shinzo Abe of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan
(LDP) was elected as Prime Minister in December 2012. Parliament President Abe's LDP won 294 of the 480 seats of the Lower House of
Parliament and has formed a coalition with the minority party, New Komeito
Party. Next Elections House of Representatives (December, 2014).
Nominal GDP - 478.1tn (2013). Population - 127.1mn (mid-year,
2013). Yen/$ Exchange Rate - 97.51 (average, 2013).

December 8, 2014
Gross Domestic 2.2

Product*
2015
Q1 Q2
Q3
Q4
2016
Q1 Q2
-0.3 -1.2 0.2 -0.8 1.5
2.4
1.8
1.6 1.5
Q3
Q4
Private
3.2 -2.8 -2.7 -1.8 -3.4 2.2
Consumption*
Consumer
Prices*
14
1.5 3.6
3.3
2.1
1.6
0.90
0.90
0.93
0.84
0.03
Historical Data
2014
Q1 Q2
na
na
0.91
na
na
0.93
na
0.92
0.90
0.89
0.92
na
na
na
na
na
na
0.91
0.85
0.93
0.84
na
0.87
na
na
3 mth TIBOR, % (end yr)

1.3 1.3
2.9 2.7 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.4

0.3
1.1
0.3
1.0
2012 2013
1.7
1.6
2.3
2.1
3.6
0.5
0.2 -0.6
0.0
0.4
-0.9
1.3
-0.6 -0.1
3.0
2.9
0.88 0.98
4.4
4.0
5.0
3.3
-41.3 -40.6 e
0.3
0.2
0.8
0.7
Data for fiscal years beginning April 1 ending March 31 (i.e. 2012=
April 2012 to March 2013, corresponding to FY12/13).
e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
DECEMBER 2014
Year
Average
Annual
Total
Unemployment
Rate (%)
Current
Account
(tn)
2014 2015
JAPAN
Fiscal Years
(Apr-Mar)
0.4%
0.2%
General
10 Year
Government 3 month
Yen (TIBOR) Govt Bond
Budget
Rate (%)
Yield (%)
Balance
(tn)
FY
FY
End
End
End
End
2014 2015 14-15 15-16

Mar '15 Dec '15 Mar '15 Dec '15
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
na
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
na
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.0
3.4
na
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.6
3.5
na
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.6
3.5
na
3.3
na
0.7
2.8
1.7
1.4
2.1
1.6
1.7
1.6
0.4
1.8
0.7
0.6
na
2.7
1.9
2.0
1.7
1.6
0.9
1.8
0.5
2.4
0.5
na
na
7.3
11.5
9.5
6.3
12.9
7.4
7.0
5.5
2.4
8.5
3.5
1.4
na
12.1
8.2
10.4
1.2
7.2
4.2
9.8
2.7
9.4
3.8
na
na
na
na
-32.5
na
na
na
na
-38.1
-33.0
na
-38.9
-32.1
na
na
na
na
na
-38.8
-36.6
na
na
-38.3
na
na
na
na
na
-30.8
na
na
na
na
-36.4
-27.1
na
-32.2
-32.1
na
na
na
na
na
-36.8
-28.8
na
na
-33.7
na
na
na
na
0.2
0.2
0.2
na
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
na
na
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
na
na
na
0.2
na
na
na
na
0.2
0.2
0.2
na
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
na
na
na
0.2
0.3
0.2
na
na
na
0.2
na
na
na
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.5
na
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
na
0.5
na
na
na
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.4
na
0.7
na
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.5
na
0.6
na
na
3.6
3.5
1.5
6.9
-36.0
-32.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.5
0.0
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.0
0.2
0.9
1.2
2.8
0.4
0.7
4.2
4.0
12.9
1.2
3.5
-36.4
-37.1
-32.1
-38.9
3.0
-31.2
-32.9
-27.1
-36.8
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.8
3.5
With the economy sputtering, Prime Minister Abe has called

a snap election for December 14. Polls indicate that in spite
of ongoing debate over whether Abenomics has worked, Mr.
Abes Liberal Democratic Party still appears to hold a strong
lead over opposition parties. A victory will ensure that the
government can proceed with proposals for a second tax hike
in April 2017. The planned increase has been postponed by
18 months from its original October 2015 date, a move which
it is hoped will allow activity to stabilise at a stronger level.
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.8
0.4
0.1
Consensus
Forecasts

(% of Total)
United States
China
South Korea
Hong Kong

(% of Total)
China
United States
Australia
Saudi Arabia
18.8
18.1
7.9
5.2
21.7
8.6
6.1
6.0
Economy Officially in Recession

Japan currently finds itself in a technical recession after Q3
data revealed that GDP declined by a further 0.5% (q-o-q)
following the 1.7% (q-o-q) contraction recorded in Q2. This
was due to continued falls in business investment and
industrial production, of 0.4% (q-o-q) and 1.9% (q-o-q),
respectively. These numbers highlight the deterioration in
activity on the back of Aprils consumption tax hike, which
was introduced in order to help reduce some of Japans fiscal
overhang. However, it now appears to have put the brakes on
activity. The news has also shone the spotlight on Abenomics
which hitherto has relied on monetary and fiscal stimulus
measures to prop up activity. Despite the precarious situation, the Bank of Japan remained optimistic at its latest
meeting as it voted against a change in monetary policy and
chose to continue with the current pace of quantitative
easing, insisting that the nation is on the road to recovery.
The central bank is perhaps counting on the recent pick up
in industrial output or the external sector to boost the
recovery. The depreciation of the yen has lifted exports in
recent months, with a 9.6% (y-o-y) increase in October
providing relief for exporters.

2014
% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2.0
1.8
2
1
1.6
2015 Consumer
Price Inflation
Forecasts (%)
-1
1.4
Consumer Prices
(% chg yoy)
-2
-3
1.2
-4
-5
1.0
-6
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
2015 Real GDP

Growth
Forecasts (%)
0.8
15
DECEMBER 2014
MALAYSIA
Annual Total
Money
Supply
(M3)
Imports
Exports
(fob, US$bn) (fob, US$bn)
Gross
Domestic
Product
Private
Consumption
Gross Fixed Manufactur- Consumer

Investment
ing
Prices
Production
2014 2015
2014 2015
CIBD - CIMB
Citigroup
Nomura
Barclays Capital
Deutsche Bank
IHS Economics
Credit Suisse
ANZ Bank
Goldman Sachs Asia
HSBC Economics
ING
Oxford Economics
FERI
UBS
JP Morgan Chase
OCBC Bank
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.6
4.9
5.0
5.4
5.3
5.0
5.5
4.8
5.1
4.8
5.3
5.0
5.1
5.4
5.0
4.7
5.1
4.5
4.7
5.1
6.5
6.1
6.8
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.7
5.9
6.5
6.1
6.6
6.2
5.9
6.6
6.7
6.9
na
6.9
5.5
6.6
5.5
5.3
6.5
4.2
5.9
5.2
5.5
5.3
5.8
5.2
5.5
4.7
5.5
5.7
na
7.1
8.5
7.0
na
4.6
5.4
4.3
4.3
8.3
7.8
4.5
0.5
5.9
5.7
4.7
5.6
4.6
3.2
5.0
8.6
7.4
na
5.7
5.5
5.2
4.0
9.5
7.4
4.2
6.3
5.3
5.1
3.8
5.9
1.8
6.0
5.0
4.0
na
na
na
na
6.1
5.9
4.3
5.0
na
na
5.6
4.7
na
5.5
5.3
3.0
na
4.7
na
na
na
na
3.7
4.0
2.4
4.4
na
na
6.0
3.8
na
3.6
3.0
4.0
na
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
4.0
3.3
3.9
4.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
3.8
4.5
4.5
3.9
4.0
3.5
3.7
4.2
3.9
4.3
3.6
6.0
na
na
na
na
5.8
6.9
6.0
na
6.3
5.8
5.1
6.0
9.2
5.8
na
6.0
na
Consensus (Mean)
5.8
5.0
6.5
5.6
5.3
5.7
4.9
4.0
3.2
4.0
Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation
5.7
5.6
6.0
4.9
0.2
5.2
5.1
5.5
4.5
0.3
6.3
6.3
6.9
5.9
0.3
5.4
5.5
7.1
4.2
0.7
6.4
6.3
8.5
0.5
1.9
6.3
6.4
9.5
1.8
1.8
5.0
4.7
6.1
3.0
1.0
4.5
4.6
6.0
2.4
1.0
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.1
0.1
4.0
3.6
4.6
3.3
0.3
Asian Development
Bank (Sep. '14)
IMF (Oct. '14)
5.7
5.9
5.3
5.2
3.3
2.9
3.6
4.1
2014
2015 2014
2015 2014 2015 2014 2015

Prime Minister - Mr. Najib Razak. Government - The 14-Party
National Front coalition, led by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), holds 133 of the 222 seats. Next Election - 2018
(Parliamentary). Nominal GDP - RM986.7bn (2013). Population
- 29.7mn (mid-year, 2013). Ringgit/US$ Exchange Rate - 3.149
(average, 2013).

December 8, 2014
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
Gross Domestic 6.2 6.5

Consumer
Prices*
3.4
3.3
Trade
10.2 9.3
Balance (US$bn)
16
End Year, %
change
Q3 Q4
5.6
3.0
5.2
2.8
Q1 Q2 Q3
5.4 4.6 5.1
2.8 4.3 4.6
9.0 10.0 9.4 8.1 8.4
5.2
4.2
9.1
Q1
4.8
3.9
na
2015
2014
2015
8.7
na
na
na
na
8.3
5.9
6.0
na
6.0
7.3
11.2
6.0
8.4
11.3
na
4.0
na
217.4
231.6
225.5
223.0
na
222.2
226.9
na
241.8
237.9
na
229.3
227.1
231.9
224.1
na
234.9
na
225.4
243.4
249.3
227.7
na
220.7
222.1
na
259.6
247.0
na
240.8
242.3
240.9
238.9
na
242.0
na
184.2
193.9
185.3
185.0
na
183.2
190.0
na
205.1
211.0
na
189.9
187.5
204.9
185.8
na
199.0
na
193.0
209.0
210.8
188.3
na
189.9
194.1
na
219.8
216.0
na
197.1
200.6
217.0
201.3
na
217.2
na
6.3
7.5
228.7
238.5
192.7
204.2
6.9
8.3
9.2
5.1
1.1
7.8
8.6
11.3
4.0
2.3
230.6
232.5
241.8
217.4
6.8
247.4
252.7
259.6
220.7
11.4
195.1
196.5
211.0
183.2
9.3
211.8
214.4
219.8
188.3
11.3
Historical Data
2010 2011 2012 2013
7.4
5.2
5.6
4.7
6.9
6.9
8.2
7.2
11.9
6.3
19.2
8.5
11.1
4.5
2.9
4.2
Consumer Prices*
1.6
3.2
1.7
2.1
6.8
14.3
9.0
7.3
199.0 228.6 222.1 215.6
Q2
Merch. Imports (fob, US$bn)
156.6 179.1 181.6 181.3
5.2
Trade Balance (fob-fob, US$bn)
42.5
49.5
40.5
34.4
2016
Q4
2014
3.1
na
27.1
33.5
17.6
12.7
3 mth Interbank Rate, % (end yr)
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.2
Base Lending Rate, % (end yr)
6.3
6.6
6.6
6.6

DECEMBER 2014
MALAYSIA
Annual Total
Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)
Trade
Balance
(fob-fob,
US$bn)
2014
3.7%
6.9%
Base Lending
Rate (%)
3-month
Interbank
Rate (%)
End
End
End
End
2015
2014
2015
33.1
37.7
40.1
38.1
na
39.0
36.8
na
36.7
26.9
na
39.4
39.6
26.9
38.3
na
35.9
na
32.3
34.4
38.5
39.3
na
30.8
27.9
na
39.8
31.0
na
43.7
41.7
24.0
37.6
na
24.8
na
14.5
18.7
18.3
17.3
16.4
18.7
15.9
14.8
15.9
17.3
15.8
21.4
20.4
17.1
18.2
17.8
15.9
na
13.2
11.6
14.9
16.9
10.8
9.8
8.3
11.3
15.7
17.3
17.8
25.7
20.7
16.7
17.9
11.7
5.2
na
na
na
3.8
na
na
3.8
na
na
na
na
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.6
na
na
na
na
na
3.8
na
na
4.0
na
na
na
na
3.8
3.6
3.8
4.2
3.6
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
6.8
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
7.0
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
36.0
34.3
17.3
14.4
3.8
3.8
na
na
35.6
36.1
40.1
26.9
4.4
35.6
38.3
43.7
24.0
6.4
17.6
17.5
21.4
14.5
1.9
17.0
17.8
25.7
5.2
5.0
3.9
3.6
0.1
4.2
3.6
0.2
6.8
6.8
na
7.0
7.0
na
Mar '15 Dec '15
Mar '15 Dec '15
Q3 Growth Slows on Weaker Exports and Investment

As expected, Q3 GDP data revealed much softer growth
than earlier in the year as the Malaysian economy was hit by
weak export demand. The economy grew by 5.6% (y-o-y) in
the three months to September, much lower than the 6.2%
and 6.5% figures posted for Q1 and Q2 respectively. Growth
in private consumption edged up slightly from 6.5% (y-o-y)
in Q2 to reach 6.7%, driven by high consumption of food and
beverages, housing and utilities, and communication. However, a sharp slowdown in export growth from 8.8% in the
prior quarter to 2.8% in Q3 and a sizeable decrease in gross
fixed investment (from 7.2% to 1.1%) in the same period
weighed on overall activity. In line with the slowdown seen
in the annual GDP figure, Q3 growth in seasonally adjusted
quarterly terms roughly halved from 1.9% in the prior three
months to just 0.9%. That said, the central bank governor,
Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, remains positive in spite of the
slowdown, pointing out that the economy is on a steady
growth path and still forecasting firm GDP growth of 5.56.0% for 2014 and 5.0-6.0% for 2015. For 2015, our panel's
GDP forecasts are now at the bottom end of the target range.
The government last month took the bold step of abolishing
subsidies for the RON95 grade of petrol and diesel with effect
at the start of December. Prices of the popular grade of petrol
and diesel will be determined by a managed float mechanism
which adjust prices according to the market rate. The move
looks set to save the authorities around RM20bn (US$6bn)
per year and, in conjunction with the planned introduction of
a goods and services tax next April, should help to reduce
the countrys fiscal deficit. Encouragingly, lower global oil
prices are likely to limit inflationary pressures stemming
from the fuel subsidy removal.
(% of Total)
14.6
Singapore
China
Japan
United States
15.8
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
China
Singapore
Japan
United States
16.4
12.4
8.7
7.9

Consensus
Forecasts
14.0
13.4
11.1
8.1

(% of Total)
2014
%Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5.5
5.0
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
Consensus
Forecasts
US$bn
54
Trade
46
Balance
38
Current Account
30
Balance
22
14
6
-2
-10
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
4.5
2015 Real GDP

Growth
Forecasts (%)
4.0
3.5
3.0
2015 Consumer
Price Inflation
Forecasts (%)
2.5
17
NEW ZEALAND
DECEMBER 2014
End Year,
Year
% change Average

Gross
Private
Domestic ConsumpProduct
tion
Gross
Fixed
Investment
Manufacturing
Production
Consumer
Prices
Labour
Cost
Index
Money
Supply
(M3)
Annual Total
MerchanUnemdise
ployment
Exports
Rate (%)
(fob,
NZ$bn)
Merchandise
Imports
(fob,
NZ$bn)
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 20142015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
First NZ Capital
3.6
2.7
3.1
2.9
7.4 7.6
na
na
1.3 1.6
1.8
2.3
na
na
5.6 5.0
50.0 53.0
51.0 56.0
Infometrics
3.6
3.2
3.0
2.9
9.3 4.5
na
na
1.3 1.8
1.6
1.7
na
na
5.6 5.4
50.2 50.7
49.7 56.8
UBS
3.6
3.0
2.9
2.9
7.7 7.6
3.0
3.0
1.3 2.0
1.7
2.3
5.5 5.0
5.5 5.0
49.0 43.1
48.1 49.1
Oxford Economics
3.5
3.1
3.2
2.8 10.0 7.6
na
na
1.6 2.0
na
na
na
na
5.8 5.4
HSBC
3.5
3.0
3.1
3.1
8.1 7.5
na
na
1.6 2.0
1.7
2.3
na
na
5.7 5.2
50.7 50.9
50.0 52.9
Bank of New Zealand
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.5
9.2 5.9
2.3
3.6
1.2 1.0
1.7
2.2
6.2 7.0
5.6 5.4
50.3 49.4
48.9 50.3
JP Morgan Chase
3.4
2.8
na
na
9.2 8.8
na
na
1.4 1.8
na
na
na
na
5.9 5.8
50.0 50.0
52.3 54.3
ASB Bank
3.3
3.3
3.0
2.6
8.1 3.4
na
na
1.3 1.5
1.6
2.1
na
na
5.6 5.2
49.6 46.0
49.5 50.9
Westpac Banking Corp
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2 10.3 8.3
na
na
1.3 1.7
1.6
1.9
na
na
5.5 4.9
49.7 45.4
48.9 50.0
Deutsche Bank NZ
3.2
2.8
3.1
2.6
9.2 8.3
2.6
3.7
1.3 1.5
1.6
2.0
6.0 6.0
5.6 5.1
50.4 52.2
49.3 55.6
ANZ Bank
3.1
3.0
3.3
3.5
7.5 6.3
na
na
1.3 1.3
1.6
2.0
na
na
5.5 4.9
49.6 47.1
49.2 53.8
IHS Economics
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.5 10.4 9.0
2.7
3.0
1.3 1.9
na
na
6.2 8.4
5.6 5.2
50.5 53.1
50.5 56.0
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.4
6.9 5.3
na
na
1.4 1.7
na
na
na
na
5.9 5.6
NZIER
3.0
2.3
3.0
2.2
6.1 1.9
na
na
1.3 1.5
1.7
1.9
na
na
5.6 5.2
52.2 53.0
49.3 51.9
Consensus (Mean)
3.3
3.0
3.1
2.9
8.5 6.6
2.6
3.3
1.3 1.7
1.7
2.1
6.0 6.6
5.6 5.2
50.2 49.5
49.7 53.1
Last Month's Mean
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.9
8.8 7.1
3.0
3.2
1.4 1.8
1.6
2.1
6.2 7.1
5.6 5.3
49.4 49.7
49.1 53.4
3 Months Ago
3.5
3.0
2.9
2.9
9.4 7.3
3.5
3.4
1.5 2.1
1.8
2.4
6.3 7.6
5.6 5.3
52.8 52.8
51.1 55.3
High
3.6
3.3
3.3
3.5 10.4 9.0
3.0
3.7
1.6 2.0
1.8
2.3
6.2 8.4
5.9 5.8
52.2 53.1
52.3 56.8
Low
3.0
2.3
2.8
2.2
6.1 1.9
2.3
3.0
1.2 1.0
1.6
1.7
5.5 5.0
5.5 4.9
49.0 43.1
48.1 49.1
Standard Deviation
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
1.3 2.1
0.3
0.4
0.1 0.3
0.1
0.2
0.3 1.4
0.1 0.3
IMF (Oct. '14)
3.6
2.8
1.6 2.0
5.7 5.2
OECD (Nov. '14)
3.2
3.0
3.2
3.4
7.1 6.6
1.2 1.3
5.6 5.4
3.8
2.9
3.0
3.6
8.5 8.8
1.4 1.6
na
na
0.8
na
na
na
na
3.4
1.1
na
na
2.7
Reserve Bank of
New Zealand (Dec. '14)

Prime Minister - Mr. John Key (National Party). Government - The
National Party won 60 of the 121 seats at the September 2014 election
and has formed a coalition with the ACT party, United Future party and
Maori party. Next Election - 2017 (Parliamentary). Nominal GDP NZ$221.29bn (2013). Population - 4.5mn (mid-year, 2013). US$/NZ$

December 8, 2014
2014
Q1 Q2
2015
Q1 Q2
Q3
Q4
2016
Q1 Q2
Gross Domestic 3.3

Product*
3.4
3.2 3.2
3.0
3.1
3.1
2.8
2.8 2.7
1.5
1.6
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.0
2.3 2.3
Consumer
Prices*
Trade
2.4
Balance (NZ$bn)
18
Q3 Q4
1.1
1.6 -1.9 -1.1 0.0 0.3 -2.7 -1.3 0.2 0.7

1.8
2.1
5.5 5.0
Historical Data
2010 2011 2012 2013

1.4
3.2
0.2
4.2
Consumer Prices*
2.3
Labour Cost Index*
-7.5
3.2
Unemployment Rate (%)
6.5
Merch. Exports (fob, NZ$bn)
44.0
Merch. Imports (fob, NZ$bn)
41.1
Trade Balance (fob-fob, NZ$bn) 2.9
Current Account Bal. (NZ$bn) -4.6
Govt Operational Bal. (NZ$bn)**-18.4
90 day Bank Bills, % (end yr)
3.2
5.9
2.1
2.3
4.0
2.3
4.0
1.9
6.5
6.5
48.2
45.4
2.9
-5.9
-9.2
2.7
3.8
2.9
2.7
7.2
1.8
1.1
1.9
6.0
6.9
46.5
46.4
0.1
-8.5
-4.4
2.7
3.6
2.6
3.2
9.8
0.9
1.1
1.7
5.8
6.2
48.4
47.2
1.2
-7.4
-2.9
2.8
4.7
**Data are for fiscal years beginning in July and ending in the following
June (i.e. 2013 = July 2013 to June 2014, corresponding to FY13/14).
NEW ZEALAND
DECEMBER 2014
Annual Total
Trade
Balance
(fob-fob,
NZ$bn)
Current
Account
Balance
(NZ$bn)
2014 2015 2014 2015
Fiscal Years
July - June

3.9%
3.7%
Government
Operational
Balance
(OBEGAL)
(NZ$bn)
90-day
Bank Bill
Rate (%)
FY
14/15
10 Year
Government
Bond Yield
(%)
FY
End
End
End
End
15/16 Mar '15 Dec '15 Mar'15 Dec'15
-1.0
-3.0
-10.0 -15.0
-1.0
1.5
3.8
4.0
4.4
4.9
0.5
-6.2
-9.4 -17.5
1.0
1.4
3.7
4.3
4.4
4.7
0.9
-6.0
-8.4 -15.7
-0.1
0.3
3.8
4.3
4.7
5.0
-6.6
na
na
0.7
-2.0
-9.6
-0.7
1.0
3.1
4.0
4.4
4.9
-7.0 -11.1
0.2
0.8
3.9
4.8
4.3
5.0
4.5
1.4
-0.9
-8.4 -11.0
0.1
1.0
3.7
4.2
4.0
-2.3
-4.3
-12.0 -19.0
0.5
na
3.8
4.2
4.2
4.2
0.1
-4.9
-9.4 -14.9
0.3
0.8
3.7
4.0
4.5
4.7
0.7
-4.6
-8.6 -15.4
0.3
0.8
3.7
4.3
3.9
4.5
1.1
-3.4
-8.2 -13.2
-0.4
0.6
3.7
4.2
4.3
4.5
0.4
-6.7
-8.5 -14.0
-0.2
0.1
3.8
4.2
4.4
4.6
0.0
-2.9
-9.6 -15.0
na
na
na
na
na
na
-10.5 -12.2
na
na
2.9
1.2
na
na
na
na
na
na
-8.0
-0.9
1.3
3.7
4.2
4.9
5.5
0.5
-3.6
-8.8 -13.7
-0.1
0.9
3.7
4.2
4.4
4.8
0.3
-3.7
-8.8 -14.2
0.1
0.8
1.7
-2.4
-8.1 -13.0
0.3
1.5
2.9
1.2
-6.6
-8.0
1.0
1.5
3.9
4.8
4.9
5.5
-2.3
-6.7
-12.0 -19.0
-1.0
0.1
3.1
4.0
3.9
4.2
1.3
2.3
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
-6.9
1.5
3.1
Falling Dairy Prices Hit Exports

New Zealand's trade balance for the year ended October
amounted to a deficit of NZ$107mn after a monthly shortfall
of NZ$908mn in October pushed the annual trade balance
into the red. Imports continued to surge as domestic demand
remained strong, registering annual growth of around 12.0%
to total NZ$4.9bn, with capital goods such as aircraft and
helicopters fairing particularly well. Exports, by contrast, fell
by 5.1% (y-o-y) to reach NZ$4.0bn as dairy products such as
milk powder, butter and cheese continued to slide. After
experiencing a minor recovery during mid-October, global
dairy prices have tumbled once again. The Global Dairy
Trade Price Index fell by 1.1% during the two week period
between November 18 and December 2 to hit a new five-year
low. A pick up in prices is unlikely to occur any time soon and
this will probably continue to have a negative knock-on effect
on the overall economy going into the new year.
In a bid to address a nationwide skills shortage, the New
Zealand government is holding job fairs in neighbouring
Australia with a view to luring Kiwi expats back to their native
homeland and at the same time encouraging competent
Australian labourers to emigrate to New Zealand. With
unemployment falling to its lowest level since 2008 and the
recently elected government looking to create 50,000 new
jobs over the next two years, employment minister Steven
Joyce is seeking to reverse the recent trend of net migration
from New Zealand to Australia. The campaign is looking for
prospective employees across a number of different fields
including construction, engineering and manufacturing in
order to boost the countrys future growth potential, New
Zealands population is projected to grow annually by 1.41.8% between 2014 and 2016.
-7.0 -15.4
-0.4
0.8
3.9

(% of Total)
China
20.8
Australia
19.0
United States
8.5
Japan
5.9
4.3
7
Consensus
Forecasts
3
1
2014
% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
3.2
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
3.0
-1
2.8
-3
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
2.6

NZ$bn

(% of Total)
China
17.5
Australia
13.3
United States
9.4
Japan
6.4
Trade
Balance
Consensus
Forecasts
2015 Real GDP

Growth
Forecasts (%)
2.4
2.2
2
-2
2.0
-6
-10
-14
Current Account
Balance
-18
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
1.8
2015 Consumer
Price Inflation
Forecasts (%)
1.6
19
DECEMBER 2014
PHILIPPINES

Gross
Domestic
Fixed
Capital
Formation
Personal
Consumption
Expenditure
Gross
Domestic
Product
End Year,
% change
Annual Total
Merchandise
Exports (fob,
US$bn)
Manufacturing
Production
Volume
Consumer
Prices
Money
Supply
(M3)
2014 2015
2014 2015
2014 2015
2014
2015
Goldman Sachs Asia

Citigroup
Banco De Oro Unibank
ANZ Bank
Barclays Capital
Deutsche Bank
Dun & Bradstreet
HSBC Economics
IHS Economics
IDEA
Nomura
UBS
Oxford Economics
ING
Metrobank
Moody's Analytics
FERI
Credit Suisse
JP Morgan Chase
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.5
6.0
6.5
6.2
6.8
6.1
6.5
6.1
6.5
5.6
6.1
6.2
5.7
6.6
6.0
6.0
6.8
6.0
6.4
5.8
5.5
5.4
5.3
6.0
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.4
na
5.7
5.1
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.7
5.4
5.5
5.4
na
5.6
5.3
5.4
na
5.3
6.2
5.9
5.8
4.6
5.9
na
6.4
5.0
5.4
5.2
4.9
6.2
5.5
5.9
5.2
na
6.0
5.1
4.8
na
5.7
na
9.4
10.9
8.6
8.5
na
8.5
8.0
10.4
8.7
na
10.5
8.4
8.3
13.1
na
7.0
9.6
8.6
6.0
3.9
na
8.6
10.3
9.4
9.7
na
6.4
8.0
2.9
6.2
na
14.4
5.4
7.9
11.2
na
7.7
7.7
7.1
10.0
na
na
8.1
na
na
na
na
9.4
na
8.4
6.4
na
na
na
8.9
7.9
na
6.4
7.1
7.4
na
na
na
7.0
na
na
na
na
12.8
na
8.0
6.0
na
na
na
10.0
7.4
na
7.0
7.5
6.4
na
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
3.0
3.5
4.1
3.9
3.3
3.5
3.8
3.5
3.5
3.9
4.0
4.4
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.0
3.9
3.7
2.2
22.6
na
na
na
15.0
na
na
9.9
na
7.0
15.8
na
na
na
4.8
29.1
na
22.0
na
15.0
25.0
12.2
na
na
na
13.0
na
na
11.0
na
7.0
14.5
na
na
na
2.7
11.0
na
4.0
na
13.0
10.0
70.2
46.1
52.3
na
58.0
na
54.8
46.7
60.0
46.5
na
na
61.8
na
63.4
51.9
56.0
na
49.3
na
59.7
75.3
48.6
59.1
na
na
na
58.1
51.4
70.0
50.2
na
na
64.9
na
64.5
55.7
60.0
na
52.9
na
65.2
Consensus (Mean)
5.9
6.1
5.5
5.5
8.8
8.0
7.8
8.0
4.3
3.6
16.6
9.8
55.5
59.7
Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation
6.2
6.3
6.5
5.5
0.2
6.2
6.3
6.8
5.4
0.4
5.4
5.5
6.0
5.1
0.2
5.4
5.4
6.4
4.6
0.5
8.4
10.0
13.1
5.7
1.8
8.7
10.3
14.4
2.9
2.8
8.3
8.2
9.4
6.4
1.1
8.2
8.4
12.8
6.0
2.1
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.2
0.1
3.7
3.9
4.4
2.2
0.5
19.2
15.6
29.1
4.8
8.0
11.0
10.4
14.5
2.7
4.0
55.0
55.1
70.2
46.1
7.2
60.1
60.4
75.3
48.6
8.0
Asian Development
Bank (Sep. '14)
IMF (Oct. '14)
6.2
6.2
6.4
6.3
4.4
4.5
4.1
3.9
2014 2015
2014 2015

President - Mr Benigno Aquino III (Liberal Party of the Philippines). Government - Benigno Aquino III was elected as president with over 40% of the votes.
His Liberal Party has 75 members in the House of Representatives, of whom
22 defected from the Lakas-Kampi-CMD coalition. Next Election - 2016
Presidential, legislative and local elections. Nominal GDP - Peso 11548.2bn
(2013). Population - 98.4mn (mid-2013). Peso/US$ Exchange Rate - 42.44
(average, 2013).

2014
Q1 Q2
2010
2011
2012
2013
7.6
3.7
6.8
7.2
Personal Consumption Exp*
3.4
5.6
6.6
5.7
Formation*
19.1
-1.9
10.8
11.9
23.2
1.1
7.7
14.0
3.8
4.7
3.2
2.9
Gross Domestic Fixed Capital
2015
Q1 Q2
10.0
7.1
9.4
31.8
Q4
2016
Q1 Q2
Q3
36.8
38.3
46.4
44.5
53.6
58.7
65.3
62.2
TradeBalance
Balance(fob-fob,
(fob-fob,US$bn)
US$bn) -16.9
Trade
-20.4
-18.9
-17.7
6.4
5.3 6.2
6.2
6.0
6.6
6.2
6.3 5.8
4.1
4.4
4.7
3.7
3.9
3.7
4.0
4.1 4.0
4.0
Manufacturing 3.5 12.2 5.9 8.6 7.7 8.5 8.9 8.5 8.8 8.6
Production*
20
Q3 Q4
Gross Domestic 5.6

Product*
Consumer
Prices*
2015
Historical Data
Consumer Prices*
December 8, 2014
2014
7.2
5.6
6.9
10.4
91-Day T-bill Rate, % (end yr)
0.8
1.6
0.2
0.0
PHILIPPINES
DECEMBER 2014
Rate on Survey Date

1.1%
Annual Total
Merchandise
Imports (fob,
US$bn)
Trade
Balance
(fob-fob,
US$bn)
Current
Account
Balance
(US$ bn)
2014 2015
2014
91-Day
Treasury
Bill Rate
(%)
End
2015
End
2014
2015
82.1
63.5
72.3
na
75.5
na
62.9
63.5
80.0
66.6
na
na
64.8
na
72.5
70.5
68.0
na
64.2
na
79.2
89.7
67.3
79.4
na
na
na
66.1
71.3
88.0
73.5
na
na
70.2
na
76.4
76.5
75.0
na
67.3
na
83.1
-11.9
-17.4
-20.0
na
-17.5
na
-8.1
-16.8
-20.0
-20.1
na
na
-3.0
na
-9.1
-18.7
-12.0
na
-14.9
na
-19.5
-14.4
-18.7
-20.3
na
na
na
-8.0
-19.9
-18.0
-23.3
na
na
-5.3
na
-11.9
-20.8
-15.0
na
-14.4
na
-17.9
11.2
12.3
7.4
8.8
8.8
12.5
8.5
12.8
9.0
9.5
13.4
na
9.9
10.6
12.3
10.3
9.2
na
10.4
12.4
8.8
11.1
13.4
8.5
8.3
na
16.7
8.0
12.6
9.0
8.5
15.8
na
8.8
14.4
12.6
9.4
9.5
na
9.5
13.3
10.2
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
1.8
na
1.8
na
1.8
na
na
na
2.0
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
2.7
na
1.8
na
2.2
na
na
na
3.1
na
na
na
na
na
70.4
75.7
-14.9
-16.0
10.4
11.1
1.8
2.5
71.0
71.5
82.1
62.9
6.7
77.8
78.2
89.7
66.1
7.7
-16.0
-16.4
-3.0
-20.1
5.3
-17.7
-17.8
-5.3
-23.3
5.2
10.4
9.3
13.4
7.4
1.8
10.5
9.4
16.7
8.0
2.7
2.0
1.8
0.1
3.1
1.8
0.6
Mar '15 Dec '15
Growth Likely to Undershoot GDP Target This Year

Real GDP growth slowed to an almost three-year low in the
September quarter after coming in at 5.3% (y-o-y), down
sharply from the 6.4% expansion posted in the prior three
months. The marked deceleration in economic activity
comes amid a 2.7% (y-o-y) contraction in the farming sector,
although positive gains were recorded in industry (+7.6%)
and services (+5.4%). By expenditure breakdown, a slump
in government spending proved to be a major drag to growth
after contracting by 2.7% (y-o-y), which contrasted with a
5.2% gain in household final consumption and a 10.1% rise
in gross domestic fixed capital formation. The latest GDP
data now takes growth for the first nine months of this year
to around 5.8%, which is well below the lower end of the
government's growth target of 6.5-7.5% for 2014. Government officials have lamented that for the economy to hit
even the lower-end of the full-year growth target, real GDP
growth will have to exceed 8.0% in the final quarter. With the
domestic economy slowing and the global landscape remaining difficult, it will prove a huge challenge to hit this
year's official growth target. Our panellists are predicting
that fourth quarter growth will expand by just 6.2% (see page
33) and full-year forecasts have now been downgraded to
5.9%, along with weaker growth expectations for 2015.
In light of the growth slowdown, the central bank opted to
stay on hold at this month's rate-setting meeting (December
11) following rate hikes in July and September. Moreover,
easing inflationary pressures are also helping to keep rates
on hold after the consumer price index decelerated to 3.7%
(y-o-y) in November. This was much lower than the 4.3% rise
recorded in October, thanks to lower prices for food and
utilities.
(% of Total)
Japan
United States
China
Singapore
2014
7.0
Consensus
Forecasts
13.0
10.8
8.4
6.8
China
United States
Japan
Singapore

%
11
21.2
14.5
12.2
7.4

(% of Total)
5
3
6.5
Real GDP
(% chg yoy)
6.0
-1
93
US$bn
12
7
2
-3
-8
-13
-18
-23
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
Consensus
Forecasts
Current Account
Balance
5.5
2015 Real GDP

Growth
Forecasts (%)
5.0
4.5
4.0
Trade
Balance
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
3.5
3.0
2015 Consumer
Price Inflation
Forecasts (%)
21
DECEMBER 2014
SINGAPORE
End Year, %
change
Gross
Domestic
Product
Private
Gross
Manufactur- Consumer
ConsumpFixed
ing
Prices
tion
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.7
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.0
2.7
2.8
3.6
3.0
2.5
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.1
2.7
3.6
3.5
2.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.4
1.8
na
3.2
1.6
3.0
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.7
2.0
1.6
1.7
2.1
3.7
2.5
3.5
2.6
3.5
3.0
na
2.8
2.2
3.2
1.1
0.5
2.6
2.5
2.9
0.4
2.9
1.6
3.4
-1.2
-1.4
-0.3
0.1
-1.1
5.0
-1.3
-1.1
-0.6
-0.7
na
-1.4
-1.0
-1.3
-0.7
0.1
-0.5
5.8
5.0
1.4
5.5
4.6
6.0
-3.2
-1.0
1.5
0.8
2.3
na
3.1
2.8
4.1
4.4
3.8
2.8
4.5
3.3
3.1
na
3.4
3.3
3.3
na
3.3
3.7
3.4
na
3.6
2.4
na
na
2.8
4.0
6.4
3.7
6.2
na
2.1
3.3
9.6
na
3.5
3.0
2.1
na
4.2
2.7
na
na
3.4
3.6
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.1
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.6
0.2
2.0
1.2
2.0
1.5
1.1
1.1
1.7
1.0
0.3
0.6
2.2
0.9
1.5
1.8
1.4
0.8
Consensus (Mean)
3.0
3.2
2.0
2.4
-0.2
2.9
3.4
4.1
1.1
1.3
Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation
3.1
3.3
3.4
2.7
0.2
3.6
3.8
3.7
2.5
0.4
1.9
2.2
3.2
1.5
0.5
2.6
2.7
3.7
0.4
1.0
-0.1
1.2
5.0
-1.4
1.8
3.7
4.5
6.0
-3.2
2.5
3.6
4.3
4.5
2.4
0.5
4.6
5.0
9.6
2.1
2.1
1.3
1.6
1.3
1.0
0.1
1.5
2.2
2.2
0.2
0.6
Asian Development
Bank (Sep. '14)
IMF (Oct. '14)
3.5
3.0
3.9
3.0
2.0
1.4
2.3
2.5
Prime Minister - Mr. Lee Hsien Loong. President - Dr. Tony Tan.
Government - The People's Action Party won 60.1% of the votes and
81 of the 87 seats in the parliamentary elections on May 7, 2011. Next
Elections - 2016 (Parliamentary), 2017 (Presidential). Nominal GDP
- S$372.8bn (2013). Population - 5.4mn (mid-year, 2013). S$/US$
4.3
5.3 134.0 137.1 441.2 450.4 373.4 381.7
5.0
6.6 134.3
5.1
6.3 134.5
10.0 11.8 139.4
2.0
2.2 131.2
2.9
2.7
2.9
140.0
140.2
145.0
132.9
4.4
447.8
449.1
463.8
415.0
12.5
467.5
473.1
494.3
402.9
27.3
377.9
380.3
390.3
360.0
9.5
394.2
401.3
414.3
338.0
23.4

2010 2011 2012

15.2
5.9
7.8
29.7
2.8
8.6
6.1
4.3
4.3
7.8
5.2
10.0
2.5
3.9
8.9
0.3
4.6
7.2
2013
3.9
2.6
-1.9
1.7
2.4
4.3
Non-Oil Domestic
Exports, fob (US$bn)
December 8, 2014
2015
2.5
6.5
na
na 451.8 488.4 380.2 414.1
2.0
2.5 133.2 138.9 436.0 450.0 360.0 372.0
na
na
na
na 436.7 420.1 367.8 354.1
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
10.0 11.8
na
na 449.0 467.9 378.2 396.4
2.0
3.5 134.4 135.9 438.1 443.0 363.1 366.2
10.0
8.0
na
na 463.8 494.3 387.7 409.1
2.5
2.2
na
na 415.0 425.0 373.0 385.0
3.8
5.3 133.6 136.2 452.1 477.6 390.3 414.3
na
na 132.1 133.8
na
na
na
na
na
na 139.4 145.0
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na 440.0 445.0 375.0 380.0
5.1
4.2
na
na 426.6 445.8 367.8 368.8
2.0
4.0 131.2 132.9 439.8 430.9 368.6 370.1
5.0
5.0
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na 436.4 402.9 363.1 338.0
3.1
7.0
na
na 450.4 464.6 379.3 394.6
3.0
3.0
na
na
na
na
na
na
Consumer Prices*

2014
2014 2015
Historical Data
2016
Q1
Q2
Q3 Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Gross Domestic 4.8

Product*
2.3
2.8
2.0
2.5
3.3
3.4
3.9
3.9 3.7
1.0
2.4
0.9
0.0
0.4
0.7
1.6
2.1
2.1 2.2
Q2
Trade
16.3 18.9 21.0 16.7 17.4 17.8 17.0 16.9 16.7 17.4
Balance (US$bn)
22
Non-Oil
MerchanMerchanDomestic
dise
dise
Exports
Exports
Imports
(fob, US$bn)(fob, US$bn) (fob,US$bn)
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015

CIMB Investment Bank
IHS Economics
Barclays Capital
HSBC Economics
ING
JP Morgan Chase
DBS Bank
OCBC Bank
UBS
Citigroup
Oxford Economics
ANZ Bank
Goldman Sachs Asia
Nomura
FERI
Credit Suisse
Consumer
Prices*
Money
Supply
(M2)
Annual Total
127.3 141.0 142.7 134.0

370.3 431.8 434.2 437.6
307.4 362.3 370.8 369.8
Trade Balance (fob-fob, US$bn) 62.8 69.5 63.4 67.8
Current Account Bal. (US$bn) 55.9 62.6 50.2 54.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
3 mth S$ Interbank, % (end yr)
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
Prime Lending Rate, % (end yr)
DECEMBER 2014
SINGAPORE
5.4%
0.4%
Annual Total
Trade
Balance
(fob-fob,
US$bn)
Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)
3-month
S$ Interbank
Rate (%)
End
Prime
Lending
Rate (%)
End
End
End
2014
2015
2014
2015
71.5
76.0
68.9
na
70.8
75.0
76.1
42.0
61.8
na
na
65.0
58.8
71.2
na
73.4
71.1
na
74.3
78.0
66.0
na
71.5
76.8
85.2
40.0
63.3
na
na
65.0
77.0
60.8
na
64.9
69.9
na
60.9
60.7
54.8
58.5
57.3
60.0
60.1
59.0
47.8
62.1
60.0
54.3
57.8
53.2
55.3
57.4
57.4
56.1
64.2
72.8
50.3
57.9
57.0
62.4
65.8
58.0
48.2
67.6
65.0
52.9
60.6
45.1
58.9
50.7
56.6
58.6
na
0.4
na
na
0.4
na
na
na
na
0.4
na
0.4
0.3
na
0.5
0.5
na
na
na
0.9
na
na
0.4
na
na
na
na
0.5
na
0.6
1.1
na
0.8
1.0
na
na
na
5.4
na
na
5.4
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
5.4
na
na
5.4
na
na
5.4
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
5.4
na
67.8
68.7
57.4
58.5
0.4
0.8
5.4
5.4
69.9
68.8
76.1
42.0
9.4
73.3
71.8
85.2
40.0
11.1
56.7
55.2
62.1
47.8
3.4
58.7
55.8
72.8
45.1
7.2
0.5
0.3
0.1
1.1
0.4
0.3
5.4
5.4
0.0
5.4
5.4
0.0
Mar '15 Dec '15 Mar '15 Dec '15
Growth Exceeds Preliminary Estimate

The final Q3 GDP release showed that Singapore's economy
performed much better than initially expected. On a q-o-q
seasonally adjusted annualised basis, growth came in at
3.1%, reversing a 0.3% drop in Q2. And in annual terms, this
equated to an expansion of 2.8%, a marked improvement on
the 2.3% pace set three months earlier. By sector breakdown, growth was led by a surge in activity in the finance and
insurance industry, followed by firmer gains in wholesale and
retail trade as well as the manufacturing sector. However,
growth in the construction industry moderated because of
weaker private sector construction activities. The Ministry of
Trade and Industry is now expecting growth of around 3.0%
for this year, citing a slowdown in the global economy and
weakness in private sector construction as the main reasons
for the softer outlook. Looking ahead, the government is
expecting unemployment to remain low in the city state and
for external demand to pick up next year. However, it has
also warned that some labour-intensive industries such as
retail and food services may suffer from labour constraints
and has thus set growth at between 2.0-4.0% in 2015.
On the inflation front, a monthly 0.4% drop in consumer
prices in October meant that the annual rate stood at just
0.1%, its lowest level since 2009. Moreover, core inflation
moderated to 1.7% (y-o-y) in the same period, slipping below
2.0% for a second straight month. The Monetary Authority
of Singapore targets core inflation at between 2.0-2.5% and
if core prices continue to slide there is a possibility the MAS
could loosen policy next year. Disinflation is occurring
primarily as a result of lower oil prices and a softening in the
housing market. Inflation expectations for this year and next
have now been trimmed to 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively.
(% of Total)
54.0
Malaysia
China
Hong Kong
Indonesia
53.3
16
11.7
10.9
10.4
6.4

Consensus
Forecasts
12
China
Malaysia
United States
South Korea
12.2
11.8
11.2
9.9

(% of Total)
2014
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
4.0
3.6
0
-4
93
US$bn
75
65
55
45
35
25
15
5
-5
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15

Trade
Balance
17
19
3.2
2.8
Consensus
Forecasts
Current Account
Balance
2.4
2.0
1.6
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
2015 Real GDP

Growth
Forecasts (%)
2015 Consumer
Price Inflation
Forecasts (%)
1.2
23
SOUTH KOREA
DECEMBER 2014
End Year,
Year
% change Average

HouseGross
Gross
hold
Domestic
Fixed
Product Consump- Investtion
ment
Industrial
Production
Average
Monthly
Earnings
Money
Supply
(M2)
Unem- Merchandise
ployment
Rate (%) Exports
(fob,
US$bn)
Merchandise
Imports
(fob,
US$bn)
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
JP Morgan Chase
Barclays Capital
Daewoo Securities
Goldman Sachs Asia
ING
Samsung Securities
Credit Suisse
HSBC Economics
UBS
Citigroup
Nomura
Oxford Economics
IHS Economics
FERI
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
Consensus (Mean)
3.7
4.0
3.5
3.8
3.5
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.1
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.6
na
2.9
2.5
3.0
2.0
2.6
3.4
3.3
2.8
2.1
1.8
2.9
2.9
3.1
2.9
3.0
4.6
5.0
4.4
4.7
2.0
4.1
4.0
3.0
4.5
4.0
3.9
na
na
5.1
4.9
3.9
4.6
7.6
4.2
5.3
2.5
5.8
3.8
2.9
4.1
2.8
1.6
na
na
6.4
3.6
3.3
1.2
na
na
1.6
3.2
1.1
1.5
na
na
1.2
na
0.7
na
0.7
0.3
0.6
5.0
na
na
2.4
3.6
2.6
2.0
na
na
0.8
na
2.4
na
2.7
2.3
2.0
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.4
2.0
1.3
2.4
2.3
1.5
1.4
2.0
1.8
2.2
1.7
1.0
1.6
2.2
1.9
0.8
2.2
na
na
na
na
na
2.5
na
na
na
1.5
na
na
na
na
na
3.1
na
na
na
na
na
4.0
na
na
na
1.7
na
na
na
na
na
3.5
6.0
na
na
na
5.5
8.0
6.0
7.2
4.8
6.0
na
na
na
8.8
7.1
6.1
6.0
na
na
na
5.5
9.0
7.0
8.8
5.0
6.6
na
na
na
8.3
4.3
5.2
3.5 3.5
2.0 2.7
4.2
4.2
1.2
2.6
1.4
1.8
2.4
3.1
6.6
6.6 3.5
3.3 638.3 665.2 550.0 576.9
Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.4
0.1
2.1
2.0
2.9
1.7
0.3
4.1
3.8
5.1
2.0
0.8
4.3
3.8
7.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
2.4
3.2
0.3
0.8
3.6
4.2
5.0
0.8
1.1
1.4
1.7
1.6
1.3
0.1
2.0
2.3
2.4
0.8
0.5
2.7
3.7
3.1
1.5
0.8
3.3
5.3
4.0
1.7
1.2
6.6
6.1
8.8
4.8
1.2
6.6
6.4
9.0
4.3
1.7
3.4
3.3
3.6
3.3
0.1
3.3
3.2
3.6
2.9
0.2
Asian Development
Bank (Sep. '14)
IMF (Oct. '14)
OECD (Nov. '14)
3.7 3.8
3.7 4.0
3.5 3.8
2.0
1.6
1.4
2.4
2.4
2.2
3.1
3.5
3.1
3.4
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.1
0.3
na
1.9
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.7
2.1
2.9
2.0
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
2.1
2.8
2.8
3.4
1.8
0.5
4.7
5.2

December 8, 2014
2014
2016
2015
Q1
Q2
Q3 Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 Q2
Gross Domestic 3.9

Product*
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5 3.3
1.1
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.9
1.6 1.7
Consumer
Prices*
3.5
na
na
na
3.5
3.5
3.3
na
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.4
na
na
na
3.5
3.3
2.9
na
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.3
2.9
3.5
3.5
637.2
630.7
640.0
na
na
633.2
628.0
651.0
738.5
628.5
na
na
631.5
597.9
620.2
622.9
635.5
645.3
738.5
597.9
34.0
657.8
647.1
665.0
na
na
646.5
654.1
690.1
780.8
653.7
na
na
656.8
645.1
639.1
646.0
668.2
691.7
780.8
639.1
38.7
543.8
545.1
550.0
na
na
537.7
542.9
555.5
658.5
537.1
na
na
540.3
525.7
530.5
533.0
550.5
565.1
658.5
525.7
35.1
558.8
551.7
585.0
na
na
530.3
574.1
601.5
709.6
558.3
na
na
567.3
564.7
561.0
559.9
586.5
617.8
709.6
530.3
45.3
Historical Data
President - Ms. Park Geun-Hye (Saenuri or New Frontier Party).

Government - The New Frontier Party (Formerly the Grand National
Party) holds 152 of the 299 seats in the National Assembly. The main
opposition United Democratic Party holds 127 seats. Next Election - 2017
(Presidential). 2016 (National Assembly). Nominal GDP - Won 1,428.3tn
(2013). Population - 49.3mn (mid-2013). Won/US$ Exchange Rate 1094.3 (average, 2013).
Trade
17.7 26.4 21.9 24.5 19.2 24.5 24.1 26.2 18.925.5
Balance (US$bn)
24
Consumer
Prices
Annual Total

2010
6.5
4.4
5.5
Consumer Prices*
Average Monthly Earnings*
Trade Balance (fob-fob, US$bn)
16.6
5.9
1.1
0.4
3.0
4.0
2.2
1.3
6.8
1.0
5.3
3.9
6.0
5.5
4.8
4.6
3.7
3.4
3.2
3.1
463.8 587.1 603.5 617.1
415.9 558.0 554.1 536.6
47.9 29.1 49.4 80.6

91-day CD (%), end yr
10 Yr Govt Trsy Bond (%), end yr
28.9
2.8
4.5
2011
3.7
2.7
0.8
18.7
3.6
3.8
2012
2.3
1.2
-0.5
50.8
2.9
3.2
2013
3.0
1.4
4.2
79.9
2.7
3.6
SOUTH KOREA
DECEMBER 2014
2.8%
2.1%
Annual Total
Trade
Balance
(fob-fob,
US$bn)
2014
2015
2014
10 Year
Government
Bond
Yield (%)
91-day
Certificate
of Deposit
(%)
Current
Account
Balance
(US$ bn)
2015
End
End
End
End
Mar '15 Dec '15 Mar '15 Dec '15
93.4 99.1
85.6 95.4
90.0 80.0
na
na
na
na
95.5 116.2
85.1 79.9
95.5 88.7
80.1 71.2
91.3 95.4
na
na
na
na
91.2 89.4
72.1 80.4
89.7 78.1
89.9 86.1
88.0
80.0
82.0
88.5
43.5
88.5
79.0
87.6
83.6
85.3
85.0
87.2
87.0
85.1
84.1
86.2
89.0
85.2
na
83.0
41.0
107.2
74.9
76.0
75.2
85.9
110.0
81.6
82.0
74.0
74.0
80.7
na
na
1.9
na
2.2
1.9
na
na
na
2.3
na
1.9
na
2.3
2.1
na
na
na
1.9
na
1.9
1.9
na
na
na
2.8
na
1.9
na
2.5
2.4
na
na
na
2.6
na
2.6
2.9
na
na
na
2.7
na
2.6
na
3.3
2.7
3.3
na
na
3.0
na
2.4
3.1
na
na
na
2.9
na
2.8
na
3.8
2.7
4.1
88.3
88.3
82.5
81.3
2.1
2.2
2.8
3.1
85.0 81.7
80.2 73.9
95.5 116.2
72.1 71.2
6.8 12.1
80.4
81.2
88.5
43.5
10.8
73.7
68.7
110.0
41.0
15.7
2.3
1.9
0.2
2.8
1.9
0.4
3.3
2.6
0.3
4.1
2.4
0.6
Subdued Activity at the Start of Q4

Following a relatively subdued performance in the second
quarter, leading indicators for the start of the third suggest
that economic activity remains lacklustre at best. Indeed,
this has been reflected in a raft of downbeat data releases
for October. Signalling continued softness in domestic
demand conditions, retail sales fell by 0.4% (m-o-m) and
0.3% from a year earlier in October, dragged down by a
slump in telecommunication devices on the back of tighter
telecom regulations. In the same month, facility investment
also posted a decline, fuelled by declines in machinery and
transport equipment. On the upside, however, industrial
activity provided some positive news as output rebounded
for the first time in three months in October. After contracting
by 0.6% in August and 0.8% in September, industrial
production recovered by 0.3% (m-o-m). However, in annual
terms the sector saw growth slow to 0.1% in October, down
from 2.0% a month earlier. A fledging recovery in the sector
looks to be some way off, particularly since forward looking
indicators such as the manufacturing PMI stayed in
contractionary territory last month. In addition, other indicators such as the ratio of inventory to shipments rose sharply
in October. Adding to the gloom for industry, both business
and consumer sentiment have remained downbeat. Still, the
sector is expected to post a moderate rebound next year
with growth of 2.6%.
On the external front, the country recorded a trade surplus
of US$5.6bn in November, down from a revised figure of
US$7.38bn in October. The deterioration in the trade surplus
reflected a decline in both exports (-1.9% y-o-y) and imports
(-4.0%). Last month's figure marked the 34th straight month
that the country has recorded a trade surplus.
(% of Total)
84.2
85.2
China
United States
Japan
Hong Kong
90.1
70.5
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
China
Japan
United States
Saudi Arabia
16.1
11.6
8.1
7.3
26.1
11.1
6.2
5.0

(% of Total)

2014
Consensus
Forecasts
% Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
4.0
3.5
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
2015 Real GDP

Growth
Forecasts (%)
19
3.0

US$bn
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Consensus
Forecasts
Trade
Balance
2.5
2.0
Current Account
Balance
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
2015 Consumer
Price Inflation
Forecasts (%)
1.5
25
TAIWAN
DECEMBER 2014

Gross
Private
Gross
Fixed
Domestic Consumping
Prices
tion
Product
2014 2015 2014 2015
End Year,
Year
% change Average
Money
Supply
(M2)
Annual Total
Unem- Merchandise Merchandise

ployment
Exports
Imports
Rate (%) (fob, US$bn) (fob, US$bn)
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
2015
na
na
UBS
3.8
3.3
3.0
2.7
2.5 3.0
na
na
1.3
0.6
na
na
4.0
3.8
3.7
3.5
2.6
2.6
3.1 3.0
5.3
3.9
1.5
1.9
5.5
5.5
3.8
3.8 317.9 333.1
277.3 294.2
Barclays Capital
3.6
4.5
2.6
3.1
4.3 9.0
na
na
1.3
1.5
na
na
na
na 310.1 316.3
270.1 271.5
HSBC
3.6
3.4
2.5
2.7
3.2 4.3
6.2
7.6
1.4
1.4
6.0
6.0
4.0
3.9 317.3 337.3
283.4 314.4
Yuanta Invest Consulting
3.6
3.9
2.5
2.7
4.0 5.7
6.4
8.2
1.2
1.0
4.3
4.7
4.0
3.8 325.5 346.1
298.2 317.0
Credit Suisse
3.6
3.5
2.0
2.2
2.9 2.0
1.6
2.0
1.5
2.0
6.2
6.5
na
na
Citigroup
3.6
3.6
2.4
3.2
na
na
na
1.4
1.7
na
na
4.0
3.9 315.7 329.4
277.5 288.0
Nomura
3.5
3.8
2.2
2.5
3.7 3.3
na
na
1.3
2.0
na
na
4.0
4.0 317.4 329.9
279.3 289.4
IHS Economics
3.5
3.6
2.6
2.7
2.6 5.3
6.2
6.6
1.2
1.0
5.2
5.7
4.0
3.9 316.2 337.8
277.7 297.1
Oxford Economics
na
na
2014
na
na
na
na
na
3.4
3.4
2.7
2.9
2.0 3.7
na
na
1.4
1.9
3.9
2.4
4.0
3.9
Taiwan Inst of Econ Rsrch 3.4

3.4
3.5
2.5
2.5
3.6 3.9
5.1
5.5
1.3
1.2
5.6
5.1
3.9
3.8 317.4 334.4
3.5
2.2
2.5
4.2 2.2
na
na
1.3
1.5
5.4
4.6
4.2
4.2 319.3 332.8
282.0 295.8
Goldman Sachs Asia
3.4
3.5
2.3
3.4
3.7 2.1
4.1
2.6
1.4
1.5
5.2
4.0
na
na 317.1 333.0
277.9 284.0
ING
3.4
3.0
3.5
3.0
5.0 5.5
6.3
6.5
1.3
1.0
7.0
7.0
3.9
3.9 387.0 410.2
364.8 390.3
JP Morgan Chase
3.3
3.6
na
na
2.6 3.2
6.3
7.0
1.3
1.0
5.2
4.8
4.0
3.9 318.4 334.4
274.8 282.4
Consensus (Mean)
3.5
3.6
2.5
2.8
3.4 4.0
5.3
5.5
1.3
1.4
5.4
5.1
4.0
3.9 323.3 339.6
287.0 301.6
Last Month's Mean
3.6
3.6
2.5
2.7
3.8 4.3
5.8
5.9
1.4
1.6
5.9
5.6
4.0
3.9 324.3 345.7
288.6 309.3
3 Months Ago
3.5
3.6
2.5
2.6
4.0 3.8
4.0
4.3
1.4
1.8
5.9
6.0
4.1
4.0 323.1 343.3
286.9 306.4
High
3.8
4.5
3.5
3.4
5.0 9.0
6.4
8.2
1.5
2.0
7.0
7.0
4.2
4.2 387.0 410.2
364.8 390.3
Low
3.3
3.0
2.0
2.2
2.0 2.0
1.6
2.0
1.2
0.6
3.9
2.4
3.8
3.8 310.1 316.3
270.1 271.5
Standard Deviation
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.8 1.9
1.6
2.2
0.1
0.4
0.8
1.3
0.1
0.1
4.0
4.0
20.3
na
23.3
na
na
na
280.9 295.6
25.4
30.7
Asian Development
Bank (Sep. '14)
3.4
3.3
1.4
1.5
DGBAS - Govt (Nov. '14)
3.4
3.5
1.2
0.9
IMF (Oct. '14)
3.5
3.8
1.4
2.0
Historical Data
President - Mr. Ma Ying-jeou (KMT). Premier - Mr. Mao Chi-kuo.

Government - The ruling Kuomintang retained its majority in the 113
Legislative Yuan, capturing 64 seats. The main opposition Democratic
Progressive Party won 40 seats. Next Elections - 2016 (Presidential and
Parliamentary). Nominal GDP - T$14,560.56bn (2013). Population 23.4mn (2013). T$/US$ Exchange Rate - 29.68 (average, 2013).

December 8, 2014
2014
Q1 Q2
Gross Domestic 3.4
Product*
Consumer
Prices*
0.8
3.9
1.6
2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
3.6
1.5
3.3
1.3
3.4
1.2
3.5
1.0
Q3
3.9
1.2
2016
Q4 Q1 Q2
3.6
1.3
3.4 3.9
1.6 1.6
Trade
7.4 10.7 10.7 8.9 6.2 9.6 9.1 10.9 5.8 8.8
Balance (US$bn)
26
2010
2011
2012
2013
10.6
3.8
2.1
2.2
3.8
3.1
1.8
2.4
19.3
-1.1
-2.6
5.0
26.5
4.7
-0.3
0.6
Consumer Prices*
1.0
1.4
1.9
0.8
5.4
4.8
3.5
5.8
Unemployment Rate (annual avg.) 5.2

273.8
4.4
4.2
4.2
307.8
300.8
305.0
247.3
279.2
268.8
267.4
Trade Balance(fob-fob,US$bn)
26.5
28.7
32.0
37.6
39.9
41.8
50.7
57.4
Consolidated Budgt Bal. (T$bn) -451.3 -306.8 -356.8

91-day Com. Paper, % (end yr)
0.6
0.8
0.8
1.5
1.3
1.2
-207.6
0.6
1.7
DECEMBER 2014
TAIWAN
Rate on Survey Date
0.8%
1.6%
Annual Total
Trade
Balance
(fob-fob,
US$bn)
Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)
2014 2015 2014 2015
na
91-day
Consolidated
10 Year
Central Govt. Commercial Government
Paper
Budget Bal.
Bond
Rate (%)
(T$bn)
Yield (%)
End
2014
End
End
End
2015 Mar '15 Dec '15 Mar '15 Dec '15
na 65.3 71.5
na
na
na
na
na
na
40.7 38.9 59.9 58.1
na
na
na
na
na
na
40.0 44.8 60.3 65.2
na
na
na
na
na
na
33.9 22.9 55.7 39.9 -114.0 -111.0
na
na
1.8
2.1
27.3 29.1
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na 63.4 62.4
na
na
na
na
na
na
38.3 41.4 60.1 58.5
na
na
na
na
1.7
1.8
38.1 40.5 56.0 51.6
na
na
na
na
1.4
1.5
38.5 40.7 65.9 66.6
na
na
0.7
1.1
1.7
2.0
na -133.4 -141.4
1.0
1.3
1.9
2.2
na
na
na
na 49.8
36.5 38.8
na
na
na
0.8
na
na
na
37.3 37.0 57.8 59.5
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
39.1 49.0 68.1 74.3
na
na
na
na
na
na
22.2 19.8 48.4 48.0
na
na
0.8
1.0
1.7
1.7
43.6 52.0 60.7 69.3
na
na
na
na
na
na
36.3 37.9 59.3 60.4 -123.7 -126.2
0.8
1.1
1.7
1.9
1.0
1.3
1.9
2.2
35.7 36.5 58.9 58.5 -159.4 -126.2

36.2 36.9 57.9 57.1 -179.9 -162.8
43.6 52.0 68.1 74.3 -114.0 -111.0
22.2 19.8 48.4 39.9 -133.4 -141.4
6.0
9.7
5.9 10.1
13.7
21.5
0.7
1.0
1.4
1.5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
DGBAS Upgrades 2014 Growth Forecast

Taiwan's economy is now believed to have grown by 3.63%
(y-o-y) in the three months to September, according to the
Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics'
(DGBAS) latest estimate. While the economy appears to
have expanded at a slightly lower rate than the 3.78%
outlined in the earlier preliminary report, GDP growth for Q1
and Q2 was upgraded to 3.41% and 3.87%, respectively
(previously 3.24% and 3.74%). The economy's third quarter
performance was buoyed by strong export growth, which
helped to underpin overall domestic demand. Thanks to the
upbeat external sector, the DGBAS recently upgraded its
growth outlook for 2014 from 3.41% previously to 3.43%. For
next year, real GDP growth is now expected to come in at
3.50%, slightly down on the earlier projection of 3.51%. As
for inflation, DGBAS is expecting price rises to average
1.18% for this year, followed by 0.91% in 2015. Compared to
the official projections, our panel is projecting somewhat
stronger inflationary pressures for this year and next, as well
as slightly firmer growth expectations for both years.
Whether the overall economy can maintain the strong growth
momentum throughout the remainder of this year remains to
be seen, but indicators for the fourth quarter appear somewhat mixed. On the plus side, the island's overall economic
monitoring indicator continued to 'flash green' for a ninth
straight month in October, suggesting the continuation of
steady growth. And other upbeat data include industrial
production and export orders beating expectations in October. On the downside, however, the official manufacturing
PMI fell into contractionary territory in November, the first dip
since December 2012. Slowing manufacturing activity is
also backed up by recent private PMI surveys.
(% of Total)
China
Hong Kong
United States
Singapore
60.1 61.6
1
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Includes re-exports to mainland China via Hong Kong
4.0
3.5
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
3.0
US$bn
60
54
48
42
36
30
24
18
12
6
0
16.0
15.8
9.3
5.8

2014
% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
4.5
Consensus
Forecasts
Japan
China
United States
South Korea
26.8
12.91
10.7
6.4

(% of Total)
Consensus
Forecasts
Current Account
Balance
Trade
Balance
2015 Real GDP

Growth
Forecasts (%)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
2015 Consumer
Price Inflation
Forecasts (%)
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
27
DECEMBER 2014
THAILAND
Gross
Domestic
Product
Private
Consumption
Gross
Fixed
ing
Prices
End Year, %
change
Annual Total
Money
Supply
(Broad
Money)
Imports
Exports
(fob, US$bn) (cif, US$bn)
2014
2015 2014 2015 2014
2015 2014
2015 2014 2015 2014 2015

Nomura
HSBC Economics
ANZ Bank
Credit Suisse
Phatra Securities
DBS Bank
ING
Siam Commercial Bank
Goldman Sachs Asia
TISCO
CIMB Investment Bank
IHS Economics
Citigroup
Barclays Capital
JP Morgan Chase
Oxford Economics
UBS
FERI
OCBC
1.4
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.2
3.9
3.3
4.5
4.2
4.5
3.7
3.7
3.8
4.2
3.5
3.7
4.5
3.3
2.9
3.0
5.0
4.2
3.6
3.9
3.7
4.0
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.0
0.1
na
0.6
1.5
1.5
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.6
0.5
0.7
na
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.0
3.1
1.0
3.5
4.3
2.8
na
3.0
4.5
2.5
2.1
3.3
3.8
3.0
2.6
3.0
4.7
na
3.6
4.5
3.3
2.4
-3.0
-3.4
-3.7
-4.2
-3.7
na
-1.7
-1.0
1.2
-0.9
-4.8
-2.4
-2.2
-2.0
na
-2.6
-3.5
-2.4
-2.0
-1.4
-6.0
5.7
5.7
5.5
7.1
6.1
na
6.2
5.4
3.0
6.4
4.2
8.2
4.0
4.4
na
5.7
12.0
4.1
5.3
5.4
3.5
0.2
na
-4.2
-1.5
-4.8
na
-4.6
-2.5
2.0
-3.5
na
-5.0
-0.5
-4.5
na
na
1.5
-4.6
-1.2
-4.0
na
5.5
na
2.6
4.9
2.3
na
4.5
2.7
3.5
3.6
na
3.4
2.0
1.8
na
na
6.4
4.7
4.8
3.3
na
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.1
3.2
1.3
2.4
2.4
2.2
1.9
1.9
2.6
2.0
1.6
2.2
1.9
2.0
1.5
1.3
2.0
1.1
1.8
1.2
2.4
2.5
2.8
na
1.7
na
5.8
na
4.0
7.5
7.5
na
4.3
7.3
na
3.7
na
na
10.5
-2.5
na
4.5
na
Consensus (Mean)
0.7
3.9
0.7
3.2
-2.6
5.7
-2.5
3.7
2.0
2.0
4.8
Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation
1.1
1.2
1.4
0.2
0.3
4.1
4.4
5.0
2.9
0.5
0.4
0.4
1.5
0.0
0.4
3.1
3.3
4.7
1.0
0.9
-3.5
-3.0
1.2
-6.0
1.6
5.6
6.4
12.0
3.0
2.0
-2.1
-1.0
2.0
-5.0
2.4
4.2
4.9
6.4
1.8
1.4
2.1
2.3
2.1
1.9
0.1
2.2
2.6
3.2
1.1
0.5
4.8
4.7
10.5
-2.5
3.4
Asian Development
Bank (Sep. '14)
IMF (Oct. '14)
1.6
1.0
4.5
4.6
2.2
2.1
2.6
2.0
9.5
na
7.0
na
7.0
na
6.0
7.5
7.5
na
11.1
na
na
5.5
na
na
12.0
-0.3
na
4.9
na
7.1 227.0 236.7

6.8
6.7
12.0
-0.3
3.3
December 8, 2014
Gross Domestic-0.5 0.4

Product*
28
Q3
Q4
2016
Q1 Q2
0.6 2.0
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.2
3.6 3.8
1.1
1.3
2.0
2.7
2.3 2.5
2.5
2.0
Trade
6.5
Balance (US$bn)
6.1
4.8
1.3
210.6 221.9
2010
2011
2012
2013
7.8
0.1
6.5
2.9
4.8
1.3
6.7
0.3
9.4
3.3
13.2
-2.0
14.2
-8.5
2.2
-3.2
3.3
3.8
3.0
2.2
10.9
15.1
10.4
7.3
Money Supply (Broad), end yr*

191.6 219.1 225.9 225.4
161.9 202.1 219.9 219.0
Trade Balance (fob-fob, US$bn) 29.8
17.0
6.0
6.4
10.0
8.9
-1.5
-2.5
3 mth Interbank (%), end yr
2.2
3.2
2.9
2.4
10 Yr Govt Bond (%), end yr
3.6
3.3
3.5
3.9
2.0
Consumer
Prices*
241.2
211.0
221.6
230.1
na
214.5
214.5
245.0
240.4
214.8
na
218.1
211.7
203.4
213.0
na
225.1
239.0
na
220.0
209.5
226.1
232.4
245.0
203.4
12.7
Consumer Prices*
2015
Q1 Q2
227.5
230.7
233.9
223.9
2.8
217.5
203.4
205.0
215.1
na
202.3
202.3
233.0
233.4
202.8
na
201.9
204.3
204.3
203.9
na
216.8
224.9
na
205.8
204.2
208.7
213.9
233.4
201.9
10.8
Q4
249.4
226.9
237.4
240.5
na
231.0
231.0
240.0
245.6
232.7
na
235.8
233.6
230.5
232.6
na
242.9
243.6
na
238.3
232.6
2015
Historical Data
Prime Minister - Prayuth Chan-ocha (Military General). Military

Government - On May 22, 2014 Thailands military suspended the
constitution and took control of the government. Next Election - New
election date pending (Parliamentary). Nominal GDP - Bt11,898.7bn
(2013). Population - 67.0mn (mid-year, 2013). Baht/US$ Exchange Rate - 30.71 (average, 2013).
Q3
230.6
223.9
226.9
227.0
na
224.3
224.3
227.0
233.9
225.9
na
226.1
227.9
226.0
224.7
na
232.0
225.9
na
226.9
225.8
2014
241.1
246.0
249.4
226.9
6.2
2014
Q1 Q2
2014 2015
5.1 5.5 4.1 3.6 3.8 na na

DECEMBER 2014
THAILAND
2.2%
2.9%
Annual Total
Trade
Balance
(fob-fob,
US$bn)
3-month
Interbank
Rate (%)
Current
Account
Balance
(US$bn)
End
10 Year
Government
Bond
Yield (%)
End
End
End
2014
2015
2014
2015
13.2
20.5
21.9
11.9
na
21.9
21.9
-6.0
0.5
23.1
na
24.2
23.6
21.7
20.9
na
15.1
0.9
na
21.1
21.6
8.2
15.9
15.9
10.4
na
16.5
16.5
-5.0
5.2
17.9
na
17.8
21.9
27.0
19.6
na
17.7
4.7
na
18.3
23.1
10.8
7.0
10.4
6.5
14.5
11.0
11.0
7.0
-3.1
13.0
5.9
7.2
10.0
7.3
9.9
11.3
6.4
9.8
9.4
9.8
na
8.0
2.8
6.0
4.3
10.0
6.7
6.7
4.0
-1.6
8.2
8.3
4.8
9.0
17.2
8.7
17.3
5.7
8.9
7.7
6.9
na
na
na
2.4
na
na
na
2.2
2.2
2.0
na
2.2
na
na
na
1.7
na
na
1.9
na
2.3
2.0
na
na
3.0
na
na
na
2.4
2.2
2.0
na
2.9
na
na
na
1.7
na
na
2.5
na
2.5
2.2
na
na
4.0
na
na
na
3.1
na
3.4
na
na
na
na
na
3.0
na
na
3.7
na
3.1
na
na
na
4.5
na
na
na
3.5
na
3.4
na
na
na
na
na
3.2
na
na
4.8
na
3.4
na
16.4
14.8
8.8
7.5
2.1
2.4
3.4
3.8
18.8
16.8
24.2
-6.0
9.3
15.0
13.6
27.0
-5.0
7.9
10.0
9.7
14.5
-3.1
3.6
7.1
6.9
17.3
-1.6
4.3
2.4
1.7
0.2
3.0
1.7
0.4
4.0
3.0
0.4
4.8
3.2
0.7
10.9
Mar '15 Dec '15
Mar '15 Dec '15
Q3 Growth Disappoints
The Thai economy failed to display much vigour during Q3
as real GDP growth advanced by a seasonally adjusted
1.1% (q-o-q), which translated into an annual rise of just
0.6%, a marginal improvement on the 0.4% posted in Q2.
The latest GDP report clearly shows that the economy is still
weak despite the more stable political situation following a
military coup in May. Greater political stability has resulted
in a gradual improvement in consumer confidence, but the
economy is still sluggish and key sectors like tourism
continue to struggle. Moreover, the nation has suffered on
the back of a slump in export demand over the past year. The
Bank of Thailand (BOT) is once again under pressure to cut
interest rates following the disappointing GDP data, especially with inflation having fallen to a five-year low of 1.3% (yo-y) in November. For now, the central bank believes that
current interest rates are sufficiently accommodative for
growth but indicated that a cut could occur if the economy
shows no signs of recovery. The BOT is forecasting growth
of 4.8% for 2015, slightly higher than the Thai planning
agencys 3.5-4.5%, and much more optimistic than the
prime ministers 2-3% prediction announced earlier this
month. Our panel has trimmed its growth forecasts for 2015.
Elections in Thailand are likely to be delayed until 2016
according to the deputy premier, Prawit Wongsuwan, in
order to allow for a constitution to be drafted and to give the
current government time to overcome political opposition.
Since assuming control of the country in May, the military
government has rolled out various economic stimulus measures to shore up economic activity. Consumer sentiment
has been gradually recovering but the regime has failed to
gain the support of a large section of the general public.
(% of Total)
China
United States
Japan
Hong Kong
8.4
Consensus
Forecasts
12
8
4

2014
5.0
4.6
-4
-8
4.2
-12
93
US$bn
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
Consensus
Forecasts
30
10
2015 Real GDP

Growth
Forecasts (%)
3.8
3.4
3.0
40
20
Japan
16.4
China
15.0
United States
5.9
11.9
10.1
9.7
5.8

(% of Total)
Trade
Balance
Current Account
Balance
2.6
2.2
0
-10
-20
1.8
2015 Consumer
Price Inflation
Forecasts (%)
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
29
ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES
DECEMBER 2014
Forecasts for a number of additional countries, shown below, were provided by the following leading economic forecasters:
Citigroup
Deutsche Bank
Dun & Bradstreet
Economist Intelligence Unit

IHS Economics
FERI
JP Morgan
Oxford Economics
HSBC
Moody's Analytics
e = consensus estimate from latest survey
BANGLADESH
Popn - 156.6mn (mid-year, 2013)
Economy
Nominal GDP - US$173.0bn (2013)
Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous fiscal year)*
Consumer Prices (% change on previous year)
Current Account (US Dollar bn)
Historical Data
2010
6.5
8.1
2.1
2011
6.5
10.8
-0.2
2012
6.0
6.2
2.6
Consensus Forecasts
2013
6.1
7.5
2.4 e
2014
6.2
7.0
1.3
2015
6.4
6.4
1.5
Mar. '15
77.82
Dec. '15
78.59
* GDP data for fiscal years starting from July 1. 2012 = July 2012 to June 2013.
Other data are for calendar years.
Exchange Rates
Bangladeshi Taka / US Dollar (end period)
PAKISTAN
2010
70.48
2011 2012
81.83 79.78
2013
77.67
Latest
77.58
Historical Data
Population - 182.1mn (mid-year, 2013)
Economy
Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous fiscal year)*
2010
2.7
13.9
-1.4
2011
3.5
11.9
-2.2
2012
4.4
9.7
-2.3
2013
5.4
7.7
-4.0
2011 2012
89.91 97.21
2013
105.20
Consensus Forecasts
2014
4.2
7.6
-3.9
2015
4.4
7.1
-4.0
Mar. '15
104.16
Dec. '15
108.09
* GDP data for fiscal years starting from July 1. 2012 = July 2012 to June 2013.
Other data are for calendar years.
2010
85.65
Exchange Rates
Pakistan Rupee / US Dollar (end period)
SRI LANKA
Exchange Rates
Sri Lankan Rupee / US Dollar (end period)
VIETNAM
2010
8.0
6.2
-1.1
2010
110.9
Exchange Rates
Vietnamese Dong / US Dollar (end period)
OIL PRICES
December
Survey
(Source: Consensus
Forecasts, Dec. 8)
2012
6.3
7.5
-4.0
2013
7.3
6.9
-2.6
2011 2012
113.9 127.7
2013
130.8
Latest
131.2
2010
6.4
8.9
-4.3
2011
6.2
18.7
0.2
2012
5.2
9.1
9.3
2013
5.4
6.6
9.5
2010 2011 2012

19498 21034 20840
2013
21095
2014
7.3
4.6
-2.5
2015
7.1
5.5
-2.6
Mar. '15
131.2
Dec. '15
132.5
Consensus Forecasts
Latest
21340
2014
5.5
4.8
7.2
2015
5.8
5.6
6.0
Mar. '15
21331
Dec. '15
21564
DECEMBER 2014
Brent, US$ per barrel

Range 1990-2013
Spot Rate (Dec. 8)
2011
8.2
6.7
-4.6
Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data
Economy
Nominal GDP -US$171.2bn (2013)
Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year)
30
Historical Data
Economy
Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year)
Latest
101.13
9.10 - 143.95
66.19
Forecast for
End Mar.
End Dec.
2015
2015
Mean Forecast
71.8
78.1
High
Low
Standard Deviation
No. of Forecasts
82.0
60.0
5.2
52
100.0
60.0
8.4
53
Sharpest Declines in Six Years

Over-supply of crude continues to weigh on the world oil markets.
European benchmark Brent has now dipped below the US$70-mark,
reaching US$66.19 per barrel on December 8. Meanwhile, West
Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell even further and is standing at US$63,
mainly as a result of the shale oil glut. Despite economies like Iran,
Russia and Venezuela suffering acutely because of the precipitous
decline in oil prices, OPEC elected not to cut output at its November 27 meeting. While demand for crude has not actually fallen,
supply is outpacing demand fundamentals. While this is good news
for consumers, it has accentuated deflationary pressures in the
world economy and hit oil-exporting countries especially hard. The
consensus suggests that Brent will remain relatively weak.
DECEMBER 2014
FOREIGN EXCHANGE FORECASTS
The following foreign exchange forecasts represent the consensus (mean) estimates of those forecasters polled in our
latest survey.
Foreign Exchange Rates against the US Dollar

All rates are amounts of
foreign currency per US
dollar except the A$ and
the NZ$ which are the
reciprocals.
Historical Data
Rates at end of:
2010
2011
Consensus Forecasts
Latest
Forecast Percent Forecast Percent Forecast Percent
Spot
End Mar. Change End Dec. Change End Dec. Change
Rate
2015
2015
2016
(Dec. 8)
2012
2013
Australian Dollar
Bangladeshi Taka
Chinese Renminbi
1.016 1.025 1.038
0.895
0.831
0.838
+0.8
0.810
-2.6
0.803
-3.4
70.48 81.83 79.78
77.67
77.58
77.82
-0.3
78.59
-1.3
79.87
-2.9
6.623 6.344 6.230
6.054
6.174
6.142
+0.5
6.135
+0.6
6.116
+0.9
Hong Kong Dollar

Indian Rupee
Indonesian Rupiah
Japanese Yen
7.775 7.767 7.751
7.754
7.751
7.773
-0.3
7.784
-0.4
7.775
-0.3
61.86
61.88
61.82
+0.1
62.69
-1.3
62.69
-1.3
9638 12170
12349
12231
+1.0
12409
-0.5
12403
-0.4
81.45 76.94 86.47 105.11
120.91
119.60
+1.1
122.05
-0.9
123.3
-2.0
Malaysian Ringgit
New Zealand Dollar
Pakistani Rupee
Philippine Peso
Singaporean Dollar
South Korean Won
Sri Lankan Rupee
Taiwanese Dollar
Thai Baht
Vietnamese Dong
3.084 3.170 3.058
3.276
3.495
3.364
+3.9
3.398
+2.9
3.370
+3.7
0.823
0.767
0.763
-0.4
0.725
-5.5
0.694
-9.5
85.65 89.91 97.21 105.20
101.13
104.16
-2.9
108.09
-6.4
112.81
-10.4
44.38
44.53
45.00
-1.1
45.96
-3.1
46.20
-3.6
1.263
1.321
1.303
+1.4
1.318
+0.2
1.313
+0.6
1071
1055
1118
1111
+0.6
1110
+0.7
1102
+1.4
110.9 113.9 127.7
130.8
131.2
131.2
0.0
132.5
-1.0
134.2
-2.2
29.16 30.28 29.04
29.80
31.19
30.93
+0.8
31.13
+0.2
31.30
-0.4
32.86
33.08
33.06
+0.1
33.56
-1.4
33.64
-1.7
19498 21034 20840 21095
21340
21331
0.0
21564
-1.0
21827
-2.2
44.81 53.11 54.79

8991
9068
0.771 0.780 0.825

43.89 43.86 41.06
1.288 1.297 1.222
1135
1152
30.15 31.55 20.59
Note: A positive (+) sign for the percent change implies an appreciation of the relevant currency against the US Dollar and vice versa.
Japanese Yen / US$

(inverted scale)
Chinese Renminbi / US$

(inverted scale)
F'casts
F'casts
5.50
70.00
F'casts
880.0
980.0
6.00
80.00
South Korean Won / US$

(inverted scale)
1080.0
90.00
6.50
100.00
7.00
110.00
7.50
120.00
8.00
130.00
8.50
Apr JanOct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr JanOct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct
03 04 04 05 06 07 07 08 09 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 16
1180.0
1280.0
1380.0
1480.0
Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct
03 04 04 05 06 07 07 08 09 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 16
Optimism regarding the strength of the US recovery has

helped to underpin the sharp appreciation in the US$ in early
December, particularly against emerging market currencies.
On top of this, a slump in global oil prices has hit the exchange
rates of those countries that produce crude oil, while major
importers of the fuel have fared relatively well. In Asia,
countries like Malaysia saw its currency hit a 5-year low on
concerns that a drop in oil-related revenues will adversely
affect the economy. By contrast, the Indian rupee has
performed better than its peers of late, thanks to a new
government buoying sentiment while lower oil prices are
expected to ease pressure on the fiscal and external accounts. Besides a drop in global oil prices, a slump in other
key commodities such as iron ore has hit the currencies of
countries like Australia. The downturn in the price of iron ore
Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct
03 04 04 05 06 07 07 08 09 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 16
stems from a drop in demand from China. Fears about the

growth slowdown in the world's second largest economy
prompted Beijing to cut rates last month and some weakness in the renminbi has been clearly evident. The decline
in the renminbi also comes in response to the slide in the
Japanese yen. Last month the fall in the yen gained new
impetus after the Bank of Japan expanded its monetary
stimulus program. Japan's economy fell into recession in
Q3 and the latest stimulus is aimed at supporting growth and
inflation in 2015. Yen weakness, meanwhile, has ignited
fears about a currency war in the region. Both the currencies
of South Korea and Taiwan have dipped on the back of US$
strength and suspected forex intervention. South Korea and
Taiwan compete directly with Japan on many goods and
view the yen's slide as an unfair advantage.
31
QUARTERLY FORECASTS
DECEMBER 2014
Continued from page 3
India
previous year
2013
2015
2014
2016
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
5.2
4.6
4.6
5.7
5.3
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.8
1.9
-0.8
-0.4
4.5
1.1
3.2
3.7
4.3
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.5
Consumer Prices*
9.6
10.4
8.3
8.1
7.4
5.5
5.9
5.9
5.8
6.2
6.2
5.8
Wholesale Prices*
91-day Treasury Bill, %
6.6
7.1
5.4
5.8
3.9
2.7
3.3
3.0
3.1
3.9
4.4
4.1
-29.3
-30.8
-28.8
-35.9
-37.6
-35.3
-32.7
-38.0
-36.9
-36.9
-34.3
-38.1
9.7
8.7
8.9
8.6
8.5
8.3
8.2
8.1
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.6
Indonesia
*
% change over same quarter of

previous year
2013
2014
2016
2015
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
5.6
5.7
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.8
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.0
5.3
5.1
5.0
4.6
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.9
5.0
5.3
5.6
Consumer Prices*
8.0
8.0
7.8
7.1
4.4
6.2
7.1
7.1
7.0
5.6
4.5
4.4
0.1
4.7
3.3
-0.1
1.6
2.8
4.0
1.4
2.8
2.9
4.0
2.7
Japan
previous year
2014
2013
2016
2015
Qtr 3
Qtr4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
2.4
2.2
2.2
-0.3
-1.2
0.2
-0.8
1.5
2.4
1.8
1.6
1.5
2.5
2.3
3.2
-2.8
-2.7
-1.8
-3.4
2.2
2.1
1.6
1.3
1.3
2.0
5.8
8.4
2.6
-1.1
-1.4
-2.9
2.1
4.6
4.0
3.8
3.2
0.9
1.4
1.5
3.6
3.3
2.9
2.7
0.9
0.9
1.3
1.4
1.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Consumer Prices*
3 month Yen (TIBOR) rate, %
Malaysia
previous year
2014
2013
2015
2016
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Gross Dom estic Product*
5.0
5.1
6.2
6.5
5.6
5.2
5.4
4.6
5.1
5.2
4.8
5.2
6.9
4.9
6.9
7.4
5.1
4.1
3.5
2.4
3.5
4.2
3.3
4.0
C onsumer Prices*
2.2
2.9
3.4
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.8
4.3
4.6
4.2
3.9
3.1
8.4
10.4
10.2
9.3
9.0
10.0
9.4
8.1
8.4
9.1
na
na
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.9
na
na
Trade Balance (U S$bn)

3-Month Interbank Rate, %
New Zealand
previous year
2014
2015
2016
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
3.0
2.5
3.3
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.2
2.0
2.5
2.0
3.0
2.3
3.7
4.8
3.0
3.2
3.0
2.6
Consumer Prices*
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.3
-1.9
1.0
2.4
1.6
-1.9
-1.1
0.0
0.3
-2.7
-1.3
0.2
0.7
2.7
2.8
3.1
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.5
Trade Balance (NZ$bn) ++

90-Day Bank Bill Rate, %
++ not seasonally adjusted
32
2013
Qtr 3
End period
DECEMBER 2014
QUARTERLY FORECASTS
Philippines
*

previous year
2013
2014
2015
2016
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
7.0
6.3
5.6
6.4
5.3
6.2
6.2
6.0
6.6
6.2
6.3
5.8
17.0
20.9
3.5
12.2
5.9
8.6
7.7
8.5
8.9
8.5
8.8
8.6
2.4
3.5
4.1
4.4
4.7
4.0
3.7
3.9
3.7
4.0
4.1
4.0
0.9
0.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.9
Consumer Prices*
1
3-month T-bill Rate, %
Singapore
*

previous year
2013
2014
2015
2016
Q tr 3
Q tr 4
Q tr 1
Q tr 2
Q tr 3
Q tr 4
Q tr 1
Q tr 2
Q tr 3
Q tr 4
Q tr 1
Q tr 2
Gross D om estic Product*
5 .0
4.9
4 .8
2.3
2.8
2 .0
2.5
3 .3
3.4
3 .9
3.9
3 .7
Manufac turing Production*
5 .2
7.1
9 .9
1.5
1.8
0 .0
1.6
3 .5
3.9
5 .4
4.9
4 .5
C ons um er Pric es*
1 .8
2.0
1 .0
2.4
0.9
0 .0
0.4
0 .7
1.6
2 .1
2.1
2 .2
17 .7
18.5
16 .3
18.9
2 1.0
16 .7
17.4
17 .8
17.0
16 .9
16.7
17 .4
0 .4
0.4
0 .4
0.4
0.4
0 .4
0.4
0 .5
0.6
0 .8
0.8
0 .9
Tra de B alanc e (U S$ bn)

3-Month S$ Interbank R ate, %
South Korea
*

previous year
2013
2014
2016
2015
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
3.4
3.7
3.9
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.3
2.0
1.0
2.2
1.7
0.9
-0.9
0.1
1.6
2.2
3.8
3.9
3.3
Consumer Prices*
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.9
1.6
1.7
23.9
24.6
17.7
26.4
21.9
24.5
19.2
24.5
24.1
26.2
18.9
25.5
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.4
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.6
2.7

1
91-Day Cert. of Deposit Rate, %
Taiwan
*

previous year
2013
2014
2015
2016
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
1.4
3.4
3.4
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.9
3.6
3.4
3.9
0.2
2.1
2.8
6.7
8.2
6.2
6.0
6.7
7.1
7.2
na
na
0.0
0.6
0.8
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.6
1.6
10.5
11.1
7.4
10.7
10.7
8.9
6.2
9.6
9.1
10.9
5.8
8.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.1
na
na
Consumer Prices*
91-Day Com. Paper Rate, %
Thailand
*

previous year
2013
2015
2014
2016
Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2
2.7
0.6
-0.5
0.4
0.6
2.0
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.2
3.6
3.8
-3.5
-7.1
-7.1
-5.0
-4.0
-1.6
2.1
3.3
4.0
3.9
na
na
Consumer Prices*
1.7
1.7
2.0
2.5
2.0
1.3
1.1
1.3
2.0
2.7
2.3
2.5
5.0
3.8
6.5
6.1
4.8
5.1
5.5
4.1
3.6
3.8
na
na
End period
33
DECEMBER 2014
This section has been left intentionally blank
34
DECEMBER 2014
This page has been left intentionally blank
35
ASIA PACIFIC CONSENSUS FORECASTS: WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

December
Survey
Real GDP
Consumer Prices
Current Account
% increase
% increase
Balance, US$bn
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
2.4
2.6
4.3
9.5
2.6
2.1
4.0
6.9
6.4
0.4
2.1
1.1
2.9
2.4
1.3
0.8
2.2
6.3
2.8
3.2
1.3
4.3
1.1
1.4
1.3
2.0
2.5
2.1
3.4
6.1
6.5
1.4
4.0
1.7
3.6
1.3
1.8
1.4
2.0
-49.8
182.8
2.3
-32.4
-29.1
33.8
12.7
-6.0
10.4
54.6
79.9
57.4
-2.5
-44.8
254.8
3.8
-36.3
5.1
0.3
5.8
3.3
5.9
3.0
3.5
3.5
0.7
2.8
7.0
2.7
6.3
5.4
1.2
5.0
3.0
6.1
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.9
-25.2
14.3
17.3
-7.3
10.4
57.4
82.5
59.3
8.8
-41.8
276.7
5.8
-41.1
-23.3
57.4
14.4
-10.3
11.1
58.5
81.3
60.4
7.5
2.1
6.8
5.1
2.9
6.6
4.3
2.8
6.4
4.9
2.3
2.4
4.2
2.4
2.0
4.1
2.4
2.0
4.3
-55.8
322.4
55.6
-52.1
400.4
75.9
-52.0
424.2
74.2
Asia Pacific4
Asia (ex-Japan)5
4.9
6.2
4.6
6.0
4.7
6.0
2.7
3.4
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.8
321.1
343.0
399.7
437.5
460.1
454.7
North America6
Western Europe7
Latin America8
Eastern Europe9
2.2
0.1
2.7
2.2
2.3
1.3
1.0
1.5
3.0
1.5
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
8.7
5.1
1.7
0.7
11.9
6.1
1.4
0.9
11.7
5.5
-454.6
435.3
-153.4
-50.8
-434.8
422.8
-154.2
-1.4
-397.6
411.6
-160.5
-17.6
2013
2014
Australia
China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
New Zealand
Philippines
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
2.1
7.7
2.9
4.7
2.9
7.3
2.2
5.6
5.8
1.6
4.7
2.6
7.2
3.9
3.0
2.2
2.9
Australasia1
North East Asia2
South East Asia3
2015

Regional GDP and inflation totals are weighted averages calculated using 2013 GDP weights converted at 2013 average
exchange rates. Current account data have been converted into US dollars, where necessary, using forecast average exchange
rates. Forecasts for North America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Latin America are taken from the latest issues of
Consensus Forecasts, Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts and Latin American Consensus Forecasts. 1Australia and
New Zealand. 2China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan. 3Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and
Vietnam. 4All countries listed above plus Sri Lanka and Vietnam. In the case of India, the forecast period is on a fiscal year basis
(April 1 to March 31). For example, regional GDP, inflation and current account totals for 2014 are calculated using FY14/15
forecasts for India. 5Asia Pacific excluding Australia, Japan and New Zealand. 6United States and Canada. 7 Germany, France,
the United Kingdom, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain,
Sweden and Switzerland. 8 Eighteen countries including Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. Inflation
figures are on a December/December basis. 9 Twenty-seven countries including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia
(Inflation figures are on a December/December basis) and Turkey.
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Survey Date

China moved to cut interest rates last month in a sign that

Quarterly Real GDP Growth (% y-o-y)

In this month's special survey we asked our panellists to

Editor: Suyin Kan

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INTHE CONSENSUS

China GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts

Japan GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts

Philippines GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts

Singapore GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts

Thailand GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts

Indonesia GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts

June 2014 3.8

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2014

Gross Domestic Product*

Trade Balance (A$bn)

90-day Dealer Bill Rate, %

Gross Domestic Product*

Unemployment Rate (%)

Trade Balance (US$bn)

3-month Interbank Rate, %

For the majority of countries across Asia, economic activity for

parts of the region, Q3 activity slowed in Indonesia, Malaysia

NOTES AND ABBREVIATIONS

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2014

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year

Last Month's Mean

Government and Background Data

Quarterly Consensus Forecasts

Gross Domestic 3.0 2.7 2.7

2.9 3.0 2.3

* % change on previous year

Gross Domestic Product*

*Percentage Change (year-on-year)

Rates on Survey Date

2014 2015 2014

-8.1 -49.6 -50.4 -36.7 -27.0

Likelihood of a RBA Interest Rate Change

Annual Growth Rates Dip Below 3%

GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Most likely rate change mentioned was: None

Major Import Suppliers

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015 Real GDP

Real GDP Growth and Inflation

Real GDP (% chg yoy)

Consumer Prices (% chg yoy)

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2014

End Year, Annual Total

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year

2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015

2014 2015 2014

Last Month's Mean

Government and Background Data

Gross Domestic Product (real)*

Retail Sales (nominal)*

Fixed Asset Inv. (nominal)*

Industrial Production (real)*

Consumer Prices (Nationwide)*

Producer Price Index for

* % change on previous year

Quarterly Consensus Forecasts

(Value Added of Industry)