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Introduction
Oil and gas fields that consist of sand
deposits of fluvial origin may have extremely complicated or even chaotic structures.
Sand lenses are discontinuous and cannot be
correlated from well to well. Fields can consist of thousands of separate reservoirs. The
thickness of the pay intervals can be very
large (e.g., up to 1000 m). Between pay intervals, reservoirs may be water saturated
and fluid properties may change rapidly
from reservoir to reservoir. Fig. 1 illustrates
the complexity of this type of field.
A geological evaluation should estimate
not only in-place reserves, but also reserves
penetrated by wells. The evaluation must
also consider the variations of reserves at
all levels because averaging of volumes and
properties gives overly optimistic field forecasts. Variations usually lead to bottlenecks
and surprises.
Stochastic geological models have been
presented in the literature. Haldorsen and
Lake 1 developed a 2D model that distributes shale intervals stochastically. Augedal
et az.2 developed a 3D model that distributes sand bodies that are parallelpipeds. Both
models assume a constant net/gross ratio
over the field.
The model presented here is a 3D model
designed to describe point-bar deposits in a
mud-rich environment. The analytical model
is designed to handle data from a large number of reservoirs (> 1,0(0) with complex
production controls. The models presented
in the literature 3 ,4 do pot take into account
the complex production procedures and
reservoir management program.
Geology of Meandering
River Systems
Meandering river systems are normally
formed in areas of relatively low slope.
Heavy vegetation and cohesive flood-plain
deposits make rivers more stable and favor
development of meandering rather than
braided river systems. The flow pattern of
meandering systems causes erosion at the
outer bank and deposition at the inner bank.
Thus, the position of the river changes and
point bars form (Fig. 2).
Copyright 1990 SOCiety of Petroleum Engineers
1580
We used Lorenz et at. 's6 correlation between channel width and the meander-belt
width to estimate the dimensions of the point
bars:
~
...,71'"
2000 m
Well A - - - - - - - - - Well B
GR
OR
OR
200
I
net
net ray
pay
l
1,64
1.01
b< 3.6 h.
b m 7.44 b<
(Leeder 1973)
Single channel
Amalgamated channel
sequence
Fig. 3-Channel thickness and net pay estimated from gamma ray log.
30
;,
~
~
:;;
~
C>
20
;':
~
I
~
10
00
0.1
0.2
0.30.4
CUM
0505
PROBABle i TY
0.70.8
0.9
1.0
(FRAC.)
00
0 1
0.2
0.3
CUM.
0.4
0.5
PROBABI L I TY
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
(FRAC.)
10000 Permea~ility from cor!e~~!~ __________ _
1000
D
D
Permeability in md
Directly penetrated
Indirectly penetrated
Un penetrated
100
10
10
100
1000
10000
Test permeability
x(
7.056re )
2
Fsrw
......
(8)
4.85 X lO4
{3=
[4>(1-Sw)p5k O.5
............ (9)
............. (lO)
25
sure drop at different rates, wellhead pressures, tubing lengths, and/or gaslliquid ratios (GLR's). The results from these runs
can often be summarized with an appropriate regression equation. The single-phase
Smith S equation for vertical gas flow can
be written as
The pressure squared is valid only for systems where 2p/Jl.g z is linear with pressure.
This is normally true for low pressures, but
for practical purposes the pressure squared
can be used for high pressures if the drawdown is not too large.
-----------
20
15
10
-~
5
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Recovery factor
--
-j-
Good zone
Poor zone
--8-
~ERCf~jT~G~
MAKE WELL
POTENTIAL
CORRELATIONS
INITIALIZE
STOCHASTIC
MODEL
GEOLOGICAL
,,0
MODEL
40
COMPLETE
OR
20
RECOMPLETE
WELL, PLAT
FORM AND
FIELD
CHOOSE WELLS
POTENTIAL
TO BE
t-
98
1 00
II
1 OJ
04
t+DElTAt
I RECOMPLETED
YES
REDUCE
RATE FOR
UPDATE
WELLS THAT
MODEL
DO NOT MEET
SPECIFICATIONS
PERCENTAGE
4Q
NO
YES
PRODUCE
3C
FIELD,
PLATFORMS
AND WELLS
NO
AT MAXIMUM
20
RATE
NO
SALES
SPECIFICATIONS
YES
I
OK?
PRODUCE AT
PLATEAU
I> I MAX?
10
ACCORDING TO
POTENTIAL
YES
27
VOLUME
81
4.3
(BSCF)
RESULTS
-B-..JBZ -4A[C-(qg)min]
2A
. ............... (16)
By definition,
t=JG [A(:Y+B(:)+Cr1dGp.
................ (20)
Eq. 20 is solved analytically with the following substitutions:
1[ 2.JD1 [( luo+.JDI)
uo-.JD
t=-;;
In
-(lnl:~11)J],
Gas rate is defined as the change of cumulative production per time unit:
...........
(26)
PERCENTAGE
40
35
---------1
30
30
25
20
20
15
10
10
5
o
o
o
VOLUME
15
20
25
30
35
(BSCF)
2(1-e E)
-([2-JD (I +e E)]2 - {4(1-e E )
x [-JD (I-eE)]}) 'h !2(I-e E )
-bI2a, ...................... (28)
E=2(ln\:::1\-2a-JD~t) ..
(29)
........ (31)
~t
Production Control
Production control is designed to be autonomous. The principles are based on the production and reservoir management most
likely to optimize plateau length, well and
platform startup, recovery, and sales-gas
specifications. Fig. 9 is a flow chart of the
model.
Both single and dual-completed wells can
be handled by the model. The upper part of
the well is assumed to be produced by a
short string and the lower part by a long
string.
Production startup for a well can be given
as a fixed or floating startup time. Wells
specified with a floating startup time are put
on production when needed to maintain the
plateau production. A time delay can be used
to take into account the drilling schedule on
a platform. As an initial guess, each reservoir is assumed to be produced to the minimum economic rate, which is given as input.
The maximum recoverable gas volume for
1584
10
(32)
................ (33)
............... (35)
The swing factor takes into account variations in market demand and allows for production at higher rates for shorter periods
of time if necessary.
For each timestep, sales-gas production
and potential production targets are compared with the potential field sales-gas production. If the potential field production
exceeds the target, then no optimization is
necessary. If the potential production is less
than the target, then optimization is performed if possible. Two optimization
methods may be used: (I) recompletion (the
first choice) and (2) drilling of new wells.
The additional field production needed to
meet the targets is calculated for each
timestep. For each platform, the potential
spare sales-gas production is calculated with
Eq.36:
(qgsS)plat = (qgsmax)plat -(qgps )plat
............... (36)
This potential production is the difference
between the maximum platform production
and the potential platform sales-gas production at that timestep.
A maximum recompletion rate is entered
into the model. Reservoirs with potential
rates lower than this rate are assumed to be
available for recompletion. For strings that
satisfy this criterion, the additional production that can be obtained by recompletion
is then calculated with Eq. 37:
(~qgps ) string = (qgps ) newres - (qgps ) oldres .
............... (37)
Additional potential platform and field
production is then calculated. The additional
potential platform production is set equal to
the potential spare production if the sum of
the additional string production exceeds the
December 1990 JPT
PERCENTAGE
PERCENTAGE
30
40
30
20
20
10
10
o
0.750
0.753
0.756
0.759
0.575
0.625
0.650
0.600
(qgps ) plat ]
.
E(qgps ) plat
x[ (qgSp):~ps)string
(dqgs)plat
] ..... (39)
'.
(Feff)plat
Applications
The models were tested in field studies. Ten
simulation runs were performed. The number of cases was not adequate for a complete
Monte Carlo simulation, but the cases give
a good indication of possible production
scenarios.
PLA TFNO= 7
Most likely
Gas rate
PERCENTAGE
30
Gas
potential
20
Optimistic
Pessimistic
10
o
7.8
8.4
9.0
9.6
large difference ("" 14%) was found between the actual and maximum recovery factors. This difference can be seen by
comparing Figs. 14 and 15. The difference
was caused by the production constraint that
optimizes plateau length before recovery.
Variations in reserves at the reservoir, well,
and platform levels enhanced the difference.
For the fields discussed in this paper, it
is difficult to predict an actual time when
new wells and/or platforms are needed to
maintain plateau level. Fig. 16 shows predicted times for new platforms.
The simulations give 10 different production scenarios. Fig. 17 shows three of these.
Sales-gas production and potential sales-gas
production are included in the figure. At the
plateau, the struggle to maintain the production level is indicated by the erratic development of the potential production. In the
most optimistic case, the potential production is obtained with fewer interventions and
is less erratic.
Nomenclature
a,b,c,
Conclusions
1. The stochastic geological model makes
possible geological realizations for fields that
consist of point-bar reservoirs.
2. A complex reservoir management program can be tested with the semianalytical
performance model. Critical bottlenecks can
be identified and resolved. The autonomous
production control makes the simulation
runs easy to perform.
3. Simulations show the importance of
describing the variations in reserves at the
reservoir, well, and platform levels.
4. The models give possible production
scenarios resulting from different geological realizations. Differences can be large,
depending on the type of field studied.
1586
be =
bm =
BF =
BT =
D =
ER =
F =
Fs
Gi =
Gp =
h =
he =
k =
p=
Pwf =
qfuel =
qg =
Te
Tw
Rws
Sw
t
Ilt
T
=
=
=
=
z=
ex =
{3 =
l' =
Itg =
tf> =
skin factor
water saturation, fraction
time, days
timestep, days
reservoir temperature, OR
[K]
gas deviation factor
correlation coefficient
interual resistance coefficient,
ft- 1 [m-I]
full well-stream gas gravity
(air = 1)
gas viscosity, cp [mPa s]
porosity, fraction
Subscripts
eff =
i =
max =
min =
P =
plat =
res =
s =
S =
t =
efficiency
initial
maximum
minimum
potential
platform
reservoir
sales
spare
target
w = wellstream
Acknowledgments
We thank Statoil for permission to publish
this paper and Olav Vikane for his helpful
review.
References
I. Haldorsen, H.H. and Lake, L.W.: "A New
Approach to Shale Management in Field-Scale
Models," SPEJ (Aug. 1984) 447-57.
2. AugedaI, H.O., Stanley, K.O., and Omre, H.:
"SISABOSA, A Program for Stochastic Modelling and Evaluation of Reservoir Geology,"
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Authors
E-02 = m'
E-04 = p.m'
Provenance
Original SPE manuscript, Production Forecasting for Gas Fields With Multiple
Reservoirs, received for review Oct. 2,
1988. Paper accepted for publication Sept.
18, 1990. Revised manuscript received Dec.
21,1989. Paper (SPE 18287) first presented
at the 1988 SPE Annual Technical Conferc
ence and Exhibition in Houston, Oct. 2-5.'
JPT
1587