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Confidential

6/1/2011

Click the
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DTT:
story
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Ted
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Senior Analyst
Informa Telecoms & Media

01/06/2011
11/09/2009

Contents

Switchover progress and targets

Story so far
DTT networks
DTT vs. the rest
Forecasts
Pay DTT

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Confidential

01/06/2011

Digital switchover progress and targets, 2011-2020

18 countries have completed analog-terrestrial switch-off
37 will have switched by the end of 2012;
68 b
by 2020
80
70
60
50
Number of countries to
have completed analogterrestrial switch-off

40
30
20
10
0
May-11
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Confidential

2011

2012

2015

2020
01/06/2011

Analog switch-off timeline by country and region

Already
switched

by 2012

by 2015

JJapan, H
Hong K
Kong,
Mauritius, South Korea,
Taiwan

A i P ifi
Asia-Pacific

Western
es e Europe
u ope

Andorra, Austria,
Belgium, Denmark,
Finland, Germany,
Norway, Luxembourg,
Netherlands, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland

France, Greece, Ireland,

Italy, Portugal, UK

Eastern Europe

Croatia, Estonia, Latvia

Czech Republic,
Hungary, Slovenia,
Bulgaria, Lithuania,
Slovakia

North America

US

Canada

Latin America

Puerto Rico

Middle East &

Africa

Israel

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A t li IIndia,
Australia,
di Chi
China,
Malaysia, New Zealand
Pakistan, Singapore,
Vietnam

by 2020

I d
Indonesia,
i Philippines
Phili i

Ukraine, Georgia,
Poland, Romania,
Russia

Mexico

Nigeria

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil,

Chile, Columbia,
C t Rica,
Costa
Ri
E
Ecuador,
d
Honduras, Venezuela

South Africa, Ghana,

Algeria, Libya, Morocco,
Tunisia
01/06/2011

Primary DTT households by region, 2005-2010

106 million primary DTT households at the end of 2010;
of which Western Europe accounted for 55%
120,000,000

100,000,000

80,000,000

60,000,000

2005
2010

40,000,000

20,000,000

0
Western
Europe
www.informatm.com
Confidential

Asia Pacific

North
America

Eastern
Europe

Latin
America
01/06/2011

Middle East
& Africa

Global

Total DTT households by region, 2005-2010

An additional 104 million homes take DTT on secondary sets;
So total DTT homes reached 209 million at the end of last year
250,000,000

200,000,000

150,000,000

2005
2010

100,000,000
,
,

50,000,000

0
Western
Europe
www.informatm.com
Confidential

Asia-Pacific

North
America

Eastern
Europe

Latin
America
01/06/2011

Middle East
& Africa

Global

Primary DTT penetration by region, 2005-2010 (%)

8% primary DTT penetration globally
34% in Western Europe
p
40
35
30
Western Europe
25

North America
Global

20

Eastern Europe
Asia Pacific

15

Latin America
10

Middle East & Africa

5
0
2005

2006

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Confidential

2007

2008

2009
01/06/2011

2010
8

Total DTT penetration by region, 2005-2010 (%)

16% of all homes accessing DTT on at least one set at the end of 2010
56% in Western Europe;
p 35% in North America
60
50
Western Europe

40

North America
Global

30

Asia-Pacific
Europe East

20

Latin America
Middle East & Africa

10
0
2005

2006

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Confidential

2007

2008

2009
01/06/2011

2010
9

Analog-terrestrial households by region, 2005-2010

Still 497 million analog-terrestrial households at the end of last year;
64% of which are in the Asia-Pacific
Asia Pacific region; China accounts for 39%
800,000,000
700,000,000
600,000,000
500,000,000
400,000,000

2005
2010

300,000,000
200,000,000
100,000,000
0
Asia Pacific

www.informatm.com
Confidential

Latin
America

Eastern
Europe

Middle East
& Africa

Western
Europe

01/06/2011

North
America

Global

10

Analog-terrestrial penetration by region, 2005-2010 (%)

38% of global TV households still receiving analog terrestrial at the end of 2010
Penetration highest
g
in Latin America ((64%);
)
and the Middle-East and Africa (59%)
90
80
70
Latin America

60

Middle East & Africa

50

Eastern Europe

40

Asia Pacific
Global

30

Western Europe

20

North America

10
0
2005

2006

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Confidential

2007

2008

2009
01/06/2011

2010
11

DTT deployments by standard and territory, Apr-11

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01/06/2011

12

DVB-T2
DVB
T2 being deployed to address capacity issues
More efficient use of spectrum enables platform operators to offer additional
channels in high definition

Mar-10

Aug-10

Nov-10
Nov
10

Jan-11
Jan
11 (soft launch)

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01/06/2011

13

Network limitations also being addressed

through OTT deployments for DTT
OTT gives DTT platform operators the opportunity to enhance free-to-air
offerings
g by
y adding
g on-demand content

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Confidential

01/06/2011

14

Global share of TV households by platform, 2005-2010

2005

2010

Cable
33%

Analog
terrestrial
57%

Satellite
8%

DTT
10%

DTT
2%

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Confidential

Cable
37%

Analog
terrestrial
35%

01/06/2011

IPTV
3%

Satellite
14%

15

Western Europe, share of TV households by platform, 2005-2010

2005

2010
Analog terrestrial 7%
Cable
31%

Cable
29%

Analog
terrestrial
43%
DTT
34%

DTT
8%

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Confidential

IPTV
1%

Satellite
18%

IPTV
6%

01/06/2011

Satellite
24%

16

Eastern Europe, share of TV households by platform, 2005-2010

2005

2010
Cable
22%

Cable
26%

Analog
terrestrial
49%
Satellite
4%

Analog
terrestrial
74%

Satellite
19%
DTT IPTV
5% 2%

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Confidential

01/06/2011

17

North America, share of TV households by platform, 2005-2010

2005

DTT
13%

Analog terrestrial 15%

DTT 1%

2010

IPTV
6%

Cable
53%

Satellite
24%
Satellite
28%
Cable
59%

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Confidential

01/06/2011

18

Latin America, share of TV households by platform, 2005-2010

2005

2010
Cable
18%

Cable
24%

Satellite
3%

Satellite
10%
Analog
terrestrial
64%

Analog
terrestrial
79%

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Confidential

01/06/2011

DTT
2%

19

Asia-Pacific, share of TV households by platform, 2005-2010

2005

2010

Cable
35%

Analog
terrestrial
60%

Analog
terrestrial
45%

Satellite
3%
DTT
1%

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Confidential

Cable
43%

DTT
3%

01/06/2011

Satellite
8%

20

Middle East & Africa, share of TV households by platform, 2005-2010

2005

2010
Cable 6%

Cable 6%

Satellite
19%

Satellite
35%

Analog
terrestrial
59%

Analog
terrestrial
74%

DTT
1%

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Confidential

01/06/2011

21

Primary DTT households forecast by region, 2006-2016

Primary DTT households to increase by 88% over next five years to 239 million
Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin America the biggest contributors to growth
300,000,000

250,000,000

200,000,000

2006
2011
2016

150,000,000

100,000,000

50,000,000

0
Asia Pacific

www.informatm.com
Confidential

Western
Europe

Eastern
Europe

Latin
America

North
America
01/06/2011

Middle East
& Africa

Global

22

Total DTT households forecast by region, 2006-2016

A further 226 million homes will have DTT on secondary sets;
Will boost total DTT households to 465 million by 2016
500,000,000
450,000,000
400,000,000
350,000,000
300,000,000

2006
2011
2016

250,000,000
200,000,000
,
,
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
Asia-Pacific

www.informatm.com
Confidential

Western
Europe

Eastern
Europe

North
America

Latin
America
01/06/2011

Middle East
& Africa

Global

23

Primary DTT penetration forecast by region, 2011-2016 (%)

Global primary DTT penetration to reach 16% by 2016
Eastern Europe to make the biggest gains will come close to overtaking
Western Europe, where pay-TV penetration will increase
45
40
35
Western Europe

30

Eastern Europe
25

Latin America

20

Global
North America

15

Asia Pacific

10

Middle East & Africa

5
0
2011

2012

www.informatm.com
Confidential

2013

2014

2015
01/06/2011

2016
24

Total DTT penetration forecast by region, 2011-2016 (%)

Close to one-third of all households will have DTT on at least one set by 2016
Penetration highest
g
in Western Europe
p ((62%)) and Eastern Europe
p ((58%))
70
60
50

Western Europe
Eastern Europe

40

North America
Global

30

Latin America
Asia-Pacific

20

Middle East & Africa

10
0
2011

2012

www.informatm.com
Confidential

2013

2014

2015
01/06/2011

2016
25

Western Europe DTT forecast

2016
Primary DTT households

66.2 million

Primary DTT penetration

36%

Total DTT households

113.6 million

Total DTT penetration

62%

Huge primary DTT markets:

p
((72% p
penetration),
), Italy
y ((67%),
), France (47%)
(
) and the UK (36%)
(
)
- Spain
Viewing on secondary sets high due to low cost of DTT set-top boxes
All countries have now launched DTT services
Most services following the successful Freeview business model

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01/06/2011

26

Eastern Europe DTT forecast

2016
Primary DTT households

49.1 million

Primary DTT penetration

33%

Total DTT households

85.2 million

Total DTT penetration

58%

Russia will drive DTT growth for region 24 million primary DTT homes by 2016
(44% penetration)
Penetration will also be high in Serbia (60%), Slovakia (39%) and Croatia (38%)
Despite some ambitious targets, analog switch-off
switch off will have taken place in the
vast majority of countries within the forecast period
- Ukraine the notable exception
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01/06/2011

27

Asia-Pacific
Asia
Pacific DTT forecast
2016
Primary DTT households

73.9 million

Primary DTT penetration

9%

Total DTT households

164.4 million

Total DTT penetration

20%

Lack of clarity from some governments on their DTT plans, but networks should
launch in all countries within the forecast period
Primary DTT penetration rates will vary from 1% (India) to 63% (Australia)
Penetration highest in countries with the fewest cable, satellite and IPTV
subscriptions and where governments will push the technology:
- New Zealand (32%), Vietnam (28%), Taiwan (24%)
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Confidential

01/06/2011

28

Latin America DTT forecast

2016
Primary DTT households

27.6 million

Primary DTT penetration

19%

Total DTT households

42.3 million

Total DTT penetration

29%

DTT will kick on now that most countries have selected the ISDB-T standard
Brazil will have by far the largest primary DTT base 16.7
16 7 million at the end of
2016 (60% of regional total)
Mexico (2.5 million), Columbia (2.1 million) and Argentina (2 million) will also see
DTT begin to take hold
Primary DTT penetration mainly between 11% and 22%, Brazil 30%
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01/06/2011

29

Pay-DTT households forecast by region, 2006-2016

Pay-DTT achieving some success in Western Europe but limited impact elsewhere;
14.2 million pay-DTT homes in Western Europe by 2016, 75% of 18.9 million global total

20,000,000
18 000 000
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000

2006
2011
2016

10,000,000
8 000 000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0

Western
Europe
www.informatm.com
Confidential

Eastern
Europe

Asia Pacific

North
America

Latin
Middle East
America
& Africa
01/06/2011

Global
30

Pay-DTT penetration forecast by country, 2006-2016 (%)

Italy by far the most successful market for pay DTT 28% penetration by 2016
Also some success in the Nordic region and the Netherlands, and will grow in Spain
30

25
Italy

20

Finland
Sweden

15

Denmark
Norway
Netherlands

10

Total Western Europe

Spain
5

0
2006

2007

2008

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2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

01/06/2011

2015

2016
31

Click toyou.
edit Master title
Thank
style

Ted
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Senior Analyst | Informa Telecoms & Media
Email:
E
il ted.hall@informa.com
t d h ll@i f
www.informatm.com

01/06/2011
11/09/2009

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