Eric Chavez

Assignment

Med Inf 406

Session 3 Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6

Expected Value

0.5

Treatment

0.4

No Treatment

Linear (Treatment)

0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
Probability of Hearing Loss

Using the decision tree that I produced in the previous assignment, I know that the
value of no treatment is 0.58. This value does not change (because the variable is
not varied) and is graphed above and labeled no treatment with the orange line.
Looking at the drug treatment branch of my previous decision tree I know that the
utility of the hearing loss branch is 0.48 and the utility of the no hearing loss branch
is 0.832.
When the probability of hearing loss is 0.1 with drug treatment, the value of the
hearing loss branch is calculated as 0.48 X 0.1=0.048 and the value of the no
hearing loss branch is 0.832 X 0.9=0.7488. Adding 0.048 + 0.7488 = 0.7968 which
is the value of drug treatment when the probability of hearing loss is 0.1.
When the probability of hearing loss is 0.9 with drug treatment, the value of the
hearing loss branch is calculated as 0.048 X 0.9=0.432 and the value of the no
hearing loss branch is 0.832 X 0.1=0.0832. Adding 0.432 + 0.0832 =0.5152 which
is the value of drug treatment when the probability of hearing loss is 0.9.
The values of drug treatment for each given probability of hearing loss are plotted
in blue on the line labeled treatment.

Eric Chavez
Assignment

Med Inf 406

Session 3 Sensitivity Analysis

The threshold for the choice of no drug treatment is when the probability of hearing
loss is at 0.7. At probability of hearing loss above 0.7, the choice should be made for
no drug treatment.