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HIDROLOGIA GENERAL
UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE
INGENIERIA
FACULTAD DE INGENIERIA CIVIL
TEMA:
ANALISIS DE FRECUENCIA
CURSO:
HIDROLOGIA GENERAL
2013
20044565H
20102564E
HIDROLOGIA GENERAL
HIDROLOGIA GENERAL
ANALISIS DE FRECUENCIA
Para realizar el presente anlisis de frecuencia se cuenta con el registro
pluviomtrico de la estacin SAN ANTONIO, ubicado en la provincia de San
Martin.
AO
ENE
FEB
MAR
ABR
MAY
JUN
JUL
1964
36
36
53
88
1.3
1965
2.9
40
30.5
41.3
88
55
32
1966
32
56
32
40
80
46.4
1967
41.5
31.4
91.4
44.3
24
13.1
80.6
100.
1
1968
48
65.5
29.8
72.7
31.1
45.8
34.5
1969
15.5
36.4
63.8
30.5
10.3
58.2
19.2
1970
45.5
35.3
70.2
66.8
28.1
17.1
53.9
1971
40.5
44.3
32.4
40.1
59.7
34.1
50.1
1972
59.4
42.2
52.8
32.7
25.4
65.2
71
1973
1974
1975
1976
45.8
41.7
57.5
48
47.6
20.9
55.5
38.5
34.6
21.2
60
44.5
40.2
55.5
37
9.4
42.5
42.8
28.9
28.1
28.7
35.2
44.4
21
1977
30.5
71
54.5
56
30.3
42.5
33
29.8
100.
5
44.5
15.5
1978
34.5
53.5
66
50.5
58.5
18.5
25.5
1979
1980
1981
54.5
34
57
34.5
11
36.5
87.5
55.5
71.5
49.4
17.5
57.5
48.5
29.5
39.5
27
35
31
19
56
34
1982
35.5
20.5
41
92.5
54.5
91
38.5
1983
79.5
38.5
29
75.5
48
39
5.5
1984
44.5
89
25.5
59.5
62.5
31.5
21.5
1985
1986
55
32.5
41.5
125
55
85
75.5
21
40.5
23.5
24.5
16.5
17.5
33
1987
47.5
51.5
75.5
80
42.5
43
54
1988
53.5
32.5
82.5
42
46.5
12.5
10.5
AG
O
4.2
48.
6
10.
1
45.
6
33.
9
25.
5
11.
2
72.
3
27.
6
56.
4
26
105
52
58.
5
31.
5
14.
5
32
22
25.
5
81.
5
77.
5
37.
5
75
71.
5
45.
5
SET
OCT
NOV
DIC
5.4
5.7
4.8
S/D
36.9
50.2
38
50.4
91.1
104
124
69.6
17.3
40
15
36
73.5
83.5
23.5
53.8
64.4
85.6 14.2
60.6
22
27.8
41.5
30.1 75 32.8
74.4 62 54.5
29.5 53
27
56.5 41.5 63.5
70.5
70.5
56.5
65
93
30
140
42.5 58.5
91.5
17
25.5
57.5 52.5
45
67.5 19.5 58.5
57.5 19.5
48
19.5
38.5 47.5
46.5
34.5
96
15.5
34.5
45
39.5
37
54
47.5
36
49
23.5
85.5
39
38.5
___________________________________________________________________________
1
HIDROLOGIA GENERAL
1989
1990
84.5
27
121.
5
65.5
87
44.5
53.5
14.5
40.5
33.5
101.
5
57
45.5
48
36
100
42
43.5
1991
1992
1993
14.6
26.8
76
58
32.5
70
66.5
65.5
50
24
75.5
30
36
24.6
45
44.5
20.9
30
40.5
40
46
69
29.3
26.2
36.5 54 50.5
46.2 38
27
65.4 39.6 34.6
1994
95.2
34.8
69.4
39.8
20.2
44
41.4
1995
43.2
46.2
60.2
18.2
31
15.4
23
32
29
42
39.
2
32.
6
93.6
27.2
37
61.2
32.8
20
25.8
1997
39.2
45.4
64
10.2
16.5
29
32.
8
52.2
72.2
66.6
55
12
S/D
AO
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
P24(mm
)
88
124
100.1
87.3
83.5
70.2
72.3
85.6
75
74.4
105
63.5
140
66
91.5
67.5
71.5
92.5
81.5
96
___________________________________________________________________________
2
HIDROLOGIA GENERAL
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
75.5
125
80
82.5
121.5
100
69
75.5
76
95.2
93.6
116.8
AO
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
P24(m
m)
88
124
100.1
87.3
83.5
70.2
72.3
85.6
75
74.4
105
63.5
140
66
N ORDEN
=m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
P24(m
m)
140
125
124
121.5
116.8
105
100.1
100
96
95.2
93.6
92.5
91.5
88
log(P2
4)
2.1461
2.0969
2.0934
2.0846
2.0674
2.0212
2.0004
2.0000
1.9823
1.9786
1.9713
1.9661
1.9614
1.9445
OBSERVADOS
Prob.
Tr
Exced
(aos)
0.0303
33.00
0.0606
16.50
0.0909
11.00
0.1212
8.25
0.1515
6.60
0.1818
5.50
0.2121
4.71
0.2424
4.13
0.2727
3.67
0.3030
3.30
0.3333
3.00
0.3636
2.75
0.3939
2.54
0.4242
2.36
___________________________________________________________________________
3
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
91.5
67.5
71.5
92.5
81.5
96
75.5
125
80
82.5
121.5
100
69
75.5
76
95.2
93.6
116.8
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
HIDROLOGIA GENERAL
87.3
85.6
83.5
82.5
81.5
80
76
75.5
75.5
75
74.4
72.3
71.5
70.2
69
67.5
66
63.5
PROME 88.937
DIO
5
DESV.ST 19.449
D
0
COEF.AS
IM
0.9811
1.9410
1.9325
1.9217
1.9165
1.9112
1.9031
1.8808
1.8779
1.8779
1.8751
1.8716
1.8591
1.8543
1.8463
1.8388
1.8293
1.8195
1.8028
0.4545
0.4848
0.5152
0.5455
0.5758
0.6061
0.6364
0.6667
0.6970
0.7273
0.7576
0.7879
0.8182
0.8485
0.8788
0.9091
0.9394
0.9697
2.20
2.06
1.94
1.83
1.74
1.65
1.57
1.50
1.43
1.38
1.32
1.27
1.22
1.18
1.14
1.10
1.06
1.03
1.9398
0.0896
0.6010
___________________________________________________________________________
4
HIDROLOGIA GENERAL
Entonces procedemos a evaluar los datos seleccionados segn los modelos Gumbel, Log Normal y Log Pearson tipo III .
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
4
HIDROLOGIA GENERAL
GUMBEL:
yT y
pexc 1 e e
y
n
8
0.4843
9
0.4902
10
0.4952
11
0.4996
12
0.5035
13
0.5070
14
0.5100
15
0.5128
16
0.5157
17
0.5181
18
0.5202
19
y =1.1193
0.5220
20
0.5236
21
0.5252
22
0.5268
23
0.5283
24
0.5296
25
0.5309
26
0.5320
27
0.5332
y
0.9043
0.9288
0.9497
0.9676
0.9833
0.9972
1.0095
1.0206
1.0316
1.0411
1.0493
1.0566
1.0628
1.0696
1.0754
1.0811
1.0864
1.0915
1.0961
1.1004
n
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
XT
KT
yT
y
0.5343
0.5353
0.5362
0.5371
0.5380
0.5388
0.5396
0.5403
0.5410
0.5418
0.5424
0.5430
0.5436
0.5442
0.5448
0.5453
0.5458
0.5463
0.5468
0.5473
y
1.1047
1.1086
1.1124
1.1159
1.1193
1.1226
1.1255
1.1285
1.1313
1.1339
, de la
1.1363
1.1388
1.1413
1.1436
1.1458
1.1480
1.1499
1.1519
1.1538
1.1557
y
n
48
0.5477
49
0.5481
50
0.5485
51
0.5489
52
0.5493
53
0.5497
54
0.5501
55
0.5504
56
0.5508
57
tabla 0.5511
para
58
0.5515
59
0.5518
60
0.5521
62
0.5527
64
0.5533
66
0.5538
68
0.5543
70
0.5548
72
0.5552
74
0.5557
y
1.1574
1.1590
1.1607
1.1623
1.1638
1.1653
1.1667
1.1681
1.1696
1.1708
n=32
1.1721
1.1734
1.1747
1.1770
1.1793
1.1814
1.1834
1.1854
1.1873
1.1890
y
y
n
76
0.5561 1.1906
78
0.5565 1.1923
80
0.5569 1.1938
82
0.5572 1.1953
84
0.5576 1.1967
86
0.5580 1.1980
88
0.5583 1.1994
90
0.5586 1.2007
92
0.5589 1.2020
94
0.5592 1.2032
tenemos
que: y =
96
0.5595 1.2044
98
0.5598 1.2055
100
0.5600 1.2065
150
0.5646 1.2253
200
0.5672 1.2360
250
0.5688 1.2429
300
0.5699 1.2479
400
0.5714 1.2545
500
0.5724 1.2588
750
0.5738 1.2651
0.5380
LOG NORMAL:
pexc
1
1 F zT
T
K T zT
z
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.0
0.5000
0.5040
0.5080
0.5120
0.5160
0.5199
0.5239
0.5279
0.5319
0.5359
0.1
0.5398
0.5438
0.5478
0.5517
0.5557
0.5596
0.5636
0.5675
0.5714
0.5753
0.2
0.5793
0.5832
0.5871
0.5910
0.5948
0.5987
0.6026
0.6064
0.6103
0.6141
0.3
0.6179
0.6217
0.6255
0.6293
0.6331
0.6368
0.6406
0.6443
0.6480
0.6517
0.4
0.6554
0.6591
0.6628
0.6664
0.6700
0.6736
0.6772
0.6808
0.6844
0.6879
0.5
0.6915
0.6950
0.6985
0.7019
0.7054
0.7088
0.7123
0.7157
0.7190
0.7224
0.6
0.7257
0.7291
0.7324
0.7357
0.7389
0.7422
0.7454
0.7486
0.7517
0.7549
0.7
0.7580
0.7611
0.7642
0.7673
0.7704
0.7734
0.7764
0.7794
0.7823
0.7852
0.8
0.7881
0.7910
0.7939
0.7967
0.7995
0.8023
0.8051
0.8078
0.8106
0.8133
0.9
0.8159
0.8186
0.8212
0.8238
0.8264
0.8289
0.8315
0.8340
0.8365
0.8389
1.0
0.8413
0.8438
0.8461
0.8485
0.8508
0.8531
0.8554
0.8577
0.8599
0.8621
1.1
0.8643
0.8665
0.8686
0.8708
0.8729
0.8749
0.8770
0.8790
0.8810
0.8830
_________________________________________
________________________
_
1.2
0.8849
0.8869
0.8888
0.8907
0.8925
0.8944
0.8962
0.8980
0.8997_________
0.9015
1.3
0.9032
0.9049
0.9066
0.9082
0.9099
0.9115
0.9131
0.9147
0.9162
0.9177
5
1.4
0.9192
0.9207
0.9222
0.9236
0.9251
0.9265
0.9279
0.9292
0.9306
0.9319
1.5
0.9332
0.9345
0.9357
0.9370
0.9382
0.9394
0.9406
0.9418
0.9429
0.9441
1.6
0.9452
0.9463
0.9474
0.9484
0.9495
0.9505
0.9515
0.9525
0.9535
0.9545
1.7
0.9554
0.9564
0.9573
0.9582
0.9591
0.9599
0.9608
0.9616
0.9625
0.9633
1.8
0.9641
0.9649
0.9656
0.9664
0.9671
0.9678
0.9686
0.9693
0.9699
0.9706
HIDROLOGIA GENERAL
1.05
1.11
1.25
95
-0.665
-0.711
-0.762
-0.819
-0.882
-0.949
-1.020
-1.093
-1.168
-1.243
-1.317
-1.388
-1.458
-1.524
-1.586
-1.645
-1.700
-1.750
-1.797
-1.839
-1.877
-1.910
-1.938
-1.962
-1.981
-1.996
-2.006
-2.011
-2.013
-2.010
-2.003
90
-0.660
-0.702
-0.747
-0.795
-0.844
-0.895
-0.945
-0.994
-1.041
-1.086
-1.128
-1.166
-1.200
-1.231
-1.258
-1.282
-1.301
-1.317
-1.328
-1.336
-1.340
-1.340
-1.337
-1.329
-1.318
-1.302
-1.284
-1.262
-1.238
-1.210
-1.180
80
-0.636
-0.666
-0.696
-0.725
-0.752
-0.777
-0.799
-0.817
-0.832
-0.844
-0.852
-0.856
-0.857
-0.855
-0.850
-0.842
-0.830
-0.816
-0.800
-0.780
-0.758
-0.732
-0.705
-0.675
-0.643
-0.609
-0.574
-0.537
-0.499
-0.460
-0.420
50
25
50
100
200
0.04
0.02
0.01
0.005
1.939
2.359
2.755
3.132
Cs
0.6010
100
1
4.051
3.973
3.889
3.800
3.075
3.605
3.499
3.388
3.271
3.149
3.022
2.891
2.755
2.615
2.472
2.326
2.178
2.029
1.880
1.733
1.588
1.449
1.318
1.197
1.087
0.990
0.905
0.832
0.769
0.714
0.667
200
0.5
4.970
4.847
4.718
4.584
4.444
4.398
4.147
3.990
3.828
3.661
3.489
3.312
3.132
2.949
2.763
2.576
2.388
2.201
2.016
1.837
1.664
1.501
1.351
entre
estos
1.216
valores
se
1.097
encuentra
lo que
0.995
0.907
Prob.Exced
0.833
para
K=0.6719
0.769
0.714
0.667
K
Pexc
- interpolando
0.5
encontramos la probabilidad de excedencia
0.09 para
0 K=0.6719
___________________________________________________________________________
6
9
0.67
19
0.80
0
HIDROLOGIA GENERAL
?
0.2
0
Segn el cuadro anterior podemos observar que el mtodo que mejor se ajusta
es el mtodo de Gumbel, ya que tiene la menor variacin, entonces procedemos
a estimar la precipitacin mxima en 24 horas con periodos de retorno 2, 5, 10,
25, 50 y 100 aos.
y
y
0.538
1.1193
88.9375
19.4490
32
Precipitacin
(mm)
Tr
(aos)
2
5
10
25
50
100
Prob.Ex
ced
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.04
0.02
0.01
y
0.3665
1.4999
2.2504
3.1985
3.9019
4.6001
Kt
-0.1532
0.8594
1.5299
2.3770
3.0054
3.6292
Gumbel
85.96
105.65
118.69
135.17
147.39
159.52
___________________________________________________________________________
7
HIDROLOGIA GENERAL
___________________________________________________________________________
8