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Project Brief and Progress

Strengthening Flood Forecasting and


Warning Centres Early Warning Capacity
under CDMP-II, MoDM&R

FFWC
BWDB

Objective:
Increase deterministic flood forecast lead time
from 3-days upto 5 days
Develop capacity to forecast flash flood in the
north east region of Bangladesh
Extend flood forecast with respect to important
infrastructures & targeted BWDB projects
Develop & disseminate more user friendly
forecasts through improved web-site
Development of Local Area Network
Capacity development of FFWC

Planning

Implementation

Design

Hydrology

Surface
Water

Ground
Water

Admin

River
Morphology

Accounts
& Finance

Data
Processing
Flood Forecasting &
Warning Centre

Structural
Flood Control, Drainage and Irrigation projects
Coastal embankment
Dredging/de-siltation to increase conveyance
Riverbank Protection
Accelerated Land Reclamation

Salinity protection
Surface water retention (including rain water)

Non-structural
Flood and drought forecasting and Warning
Erosion Prediction (planned)
Hydrological data collection and survey
Capacity development

All these are covered in the BWDB Act-2000

Disaster Mitigation Approaches; Water Sector

6 Stations
Bahadurabad, Serajganj, Aricha, on Jamuna
Goalondo, Bhagyakul and Hardinge Bridge

Based on correlation

on Padma

Upto 1990

FFWC
Started1972

Flood Forecasting & Warning Centre (FFWC)

Two consecutive big flood 1987 & 1988


Model based Flood Forecast initiated
1992-MIKE11-FF Model introduced
16-Flood Forecasting points 24 hrs

Started1972
1995-2000
MIKE 11 Model with GISStarted1972
- 30-FF points - 48 hrs
2004-07 MIKE 11 Model with GIS - 38-FF points 72 hrs

CDMP-II (2011-14)
MIKE 11 Model with GIS - 38-FF points 120 hrs

3 days deterministic forecast (existing condition)


Forecast

Observe

Water
Level

Day-1
24 hrs
present

Day-2
48 hrs

future

Day-3
72 hrs

3 days deterministic forecast (existing condition)


Water
Level

Forecast

Day-1
24 hrs
present

Observe

Day-2
48 hrs

future

Day-3
72 hrs

UNDP funded research initiative under CDMP-II, after 3 years


3 days deterministic forecast likely to extend 5 days
Forecast

present

Day-1
24 hrs

Day-2
48 hrs

Day-3
72 hrs
future

Observe

Day-4
96 hrs

Day-5
120 hrs

Model Rivers & Boundary


Non-Tidal
Panchagar( Korotya)
Dinajpur (Punrobhaba)
Rohanpur (Mohanada)
Pankha (Ganges)
Badarganj( Jamuneshery)
Gaibandha (Ghagot)
Dalia (Teesta)
Kurigram (Dharla)
Nonkhawa ( Brahmaputra)
Nakuagaon (Bhugai)
Durgapur( Someswari)
Lorergarh (Jadukhata)
Sarighat (Sarigowain)
Faridpur (Kumar)
Amalshid ( Kushiyara
Manu Railway Bridge (Manu)
Comilla (Gumti)

73 WL stations, add data


5 times a day, 73x5=365
WL data
56 rainfall data,
once in daily basis
Boundary estimation
for next 3-days
Model run

3-days lead time flood forecast in 38 points


CMP-II GOAL

Tidal
1. Monghla (Passure)
2. Ryanda(Baleshwer)
3. Patharghat( Biskhali)
4. Dosmina(Tetulia)
5. Daultkhan(Meghna)

Present condition

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

Generate 5-days lead time water


level forecast in all 38 forecast points
with development of boundary
condition for next 5-days

Flood Forecast
coverage

Coastal zone Flood Forecast


yet to start

Ganges Brahmaputra Meghna Basin Model

Water Level
Monitored by BWDB
Tidal 215
Non tidal 128
Total = 343

73 Water Level gauge


stations used for Flood
Forecasting Purpose.
Water Level monitoring
and data transmission
is entirely Manual

Water Level Gauge

Recorded 5 times
a day
3 hourly interval
only day time

Rainfall Gauge

Recorded once in 24 hours

Flood Forecasting & Warning Activities


Data Collection

Preparation

Feed to
computer
Field Observation
Water Level
Rainfall

Water Level
from 73
stations
73x5=365
Rainfall 56
stations, daily
basis
06:00 to 09:00 hrs

FFWC
Office

Other Sources
BMD
Satellite image
Web-site
Indian data

Analysis &
Quality
check
08:30 to 10:30 hrs

Error
check

Model
Run

Result
consistency
check
10:30 to 11:00 hrs

Output

Flood
Bulletin
Preparation

Rainfall
Surface
Map

Flood
Inundation
Map

11:00 to 12:00 hrs

Dissemination
Dissemination
Through
Hard copy
E-mail
Fax
Phone
Web-site
SMS
Cell Broadcast
Distributed to
Policy makers
Disaster
managers (GO
& NGO)
Media
Others
11:30 to --------

Dissemination
Hard Copy Limited, policy makers and top officials
e-mail over 600 address in different groups, Ministries,
BWDB, Disaster management agencies, NGO, Research

Organ, Development partners, District Offices, Media etc.


Fax Limited, policy makers and top officials
Phone Continuous response

Web-site www.ffwc.gov.bd
SMS Very limited
Lobby Display In front lobby of the main building

IVR Latest, started July-2011, call 10941 from mobile,


Bangla Voice Message

2012 monsoon forecast


evaluation for 24 hours
(1-day lead time) 92%
correct

Evaluation 3 days
deterministic forecast

2012 monsoon forecast


evaluation for 48 hours
(2-day lead time) 85%
correct
72 hrs (3 days) 79% correct

Coastal zone Flood


Forecast yet to start
Evaluation 3 days deterministic
forecast

Basin Model Calibration Plots


Danger Level-Q
HB_SDT
Hardingebridge-Q-Rated
Simulated Discharge

[m^3/s]
[-]
[m^3/s]
[m^3/s]

Station:Hardinge Bridge, River:Ganges;

70000

Ganges at
Harding Bridge

60000

Discharge (m3/s)

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

Jan
2011

Feb
2011

Mar
2011

Apr
2011

May
2011

Jun
2011

Jul
2011

Aug
2011

Sep
2011

Oct
2011

Nov
2011

Danger Level-Q
[m^3/s]
Jamuna Bridge_SDT [-]
Simulated Discharge [m^3/s]

Station:Bahadurabad, River:Jamuna;
90000

Jamuna at
Bahadurabad

80000

Discharge (m3/s)

70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000

Jan
2011

Feb
2011

Mar
2011

Apr
2011

May
2011

Jun
2011

Jul
2011

Aug
2011

Sep
2011

Oct
2011

Nov
2011

Sample 5-day Discharge Forecast for Brahmaputra Basin


Discharge (Observed)
[m^3/s]
Real time rated Discharge [m^3/s]
Forecasted Discharge
[m^3/s]

Station:Bahadurabad, River:Jamuna; Forecast Date:07/10/2012

5 days lead time forecast

100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000

August
2012

September
2012

real time rated Discharge


[m^3/s]
Forecasted Discharge_Day1 [m^3/s]
Forecasted Discharge_Day2 [m^3/s]
Forecasted Discharge_Day3 [m^3/s]
Forecasted Discharge_Day4 [m^3/s]
Forecasted Discharge_Day5 [m^3/s]

River:Jamuna, Station: Bahadurabad

90000

Day1
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5

0.912
0.908
0.882
0.824
0.737

80000

Satisfactory,
still chance of
improvement

70000
60000
50000
40000
30000

Excellent match

20000

Need
improvement

10000

August
2012

Excellent match

September
2012

Performance

5-day Discharge Forecast Performance at Bahadurabad of the


Jamuna River
Forecast R2

c~evfvm

hgybv b`x

Mv b`x
gNbv b`x

cv b`x

Chilmari
Bahadurabadi

Serajgonj

Aricha

Forecast Bulletin
5-day Forecast Bulletin for the Jamuna River
Chilmari
Bahadurabadi

Serajgonj

Will add 2 more days, total 5-days lead time under


ongoing CDMP-II project
Existing 3-days lead time

1-day

2-day

3-day

4-day

5-day

Chilmari on Brahmaputra

5-days lead time

Bahadurabad on Jamuna

5-days lead time

Trail basis 5-days lead time forecast for Brahmaputra Basin

5-day Forecast Hydrograph for the Jamuna River

Kazipur on Jmuna

5-days lead time

Sirajgonj on Jamuna

5-days lead time

Trail basis 5-days lead time forecast for Brahmaputra Basin

5-day Forecast Hydrograph for Brahmaputra Basin

Porabari Jamuna

5-days lead time

Aricha on Jamuna
5-days lead time

Trail basis 5-days lead time forecast for Brahmaputra Basin

5-day Forecast Hydrograph for Brahmaputra Basin

Performance of Forecast upto 5 days on Brahmaputra Jamuna River


Experimental August September 2012

Poor to Good
Need
improvement

Good, Very Good and Excellent

Comparison; Forecast (experimental) with Observe


August & September 2012

Chilmari on
Brahmaputra

Observe WL

Comparison; Forecast (experimental) with Observe


August & September 2012

Bahadurabad on
Jamuna

Comparison; Forecast (experimental) with Observe


August & September 2012

Serajgonj on
Jamuna

Comparison; Forecast (experimental) with Observe


August & September 2012

Aricha on
Jamuna

Amalshid measured [m]


AMALSHID Forecast [m]

Kushiyara River at Amalshid; Forecast Date 28-05-2012


D:\NE_FFF\M11\PLC\WL_UPD-NE-FFF.dfs0
D:\NE_FFF\M11\PLC\28-APR-2012-00-00\Forecasts\AMALSHID.dfs0

14.0
13.0
12.0
11.0

Observe

10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
00:00
2012-04-23

00:00
04-25

00:00
04-27

00:00
04-29

00:00
05-01

Kanairghat measured [m]


KANAIRGHAT Forecast [m]

Surma River at Kanairghat; Forecast Date 28-05-2012

12.0

11.0

10.0

9.0

Observe

8.0

7.0

Flash Flood
Forecast trail
result For
Sunamgonj
(pilot area)

6.0
00:00
2012-04-23

00:00
04-25

00:00
04-27

00:00
04-29

00:00
05-01

Sylhet measured [m]


SYLHET Forecast [m]

9.0

Surma River at Sylhet; Forecast Date 28-04-2012

8.0

7.0

Observe

6.0

Need further improvement

5.0

4.0
00:00
2012-04-23

00:00
04-25

00:00
04-27

00:00
04-29

00:00
05-01

Forecast upto 5 days on


Brahmaputra-Jamuna River
(experimental) generated in last
monsoon (August & September 2012)
Flash flood forecast(guidance) in
Sunamgonj & Sylhet (experimental)
generated, is being disseminated
from mid April 2013

Upgrading and extension of LAN & maintenance


Rehabilitation, restoration and extension of the LAN
has been completed with new instruments. Two
independent and separate internet line (in parallel)
established. From next monsoon, intranet will be
established.

Web-site development and maintenance


Draft web developed, feedback invited, hope to
launch from this monsoon (June 2013)

Existing Web-Site

New Web-Site (Under development)

New Web-Site (Under development)

Upgrade & development of visual display & maintenance


Continuous basis flood warning dissemination system has
been installed, covering the common lobby of the WAPDA
Building at the main entrance at the ground floor. The
WAPDA Building covering the agencies of BWDB and the
BPDB. It also covering the Briefing Room of the FFWC.

Capacity Development
Training component started and one training has
been completed at the FFWC office during 23-27
September 2012. Total 14 official/professionals of
different disciplines participated from the BWDB.

Requirement for further


Addition of Forecast Point

Existing Forecast 38 Points

Additional Forecast 16
Points, total will be 54 points
Additional water level gauges
Danger level fixation

Bulletin preparation with


additional 16 points
Update web-page with
16-additional points

Approval from the CDMP-II


Received. RFP Issued, hope to
start from this year monsoon
(End of May 2013) to be tested
in two monsoon 2013 & 2014

This could be done with least


cost as the on going activities for
lead time increase covered
many items, like data collection
from existing gauges, calibration
and testing of results etc.
Budget is there, no need to
change the scope of work, it is
under Research on Prediction
Model the workplan item

Additional Forecast 16 Points

1972 6 stations few hours

Sl.No
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

River Name
Jamuna
Baulai
Old Surma
Kalni
Kushiyara
Jamuna
Jamuna
Dhaleswari
Dharala
Shitalakhya
Meghna
Mohananda
Ghagot
Atrai
Hurasagar
Padma

Station Name
Sariakandi
Khaliajuri
Derai
Markuli
Sherpur
Sarisabari
Dewanganj
Munshiganj
Kurigram
Lakhpur
Narsingdi
Chapai Newabganj
Gaibandha
Chanhkair
Baghabari
Charbhadhrasion

District
Bogra
Netrokona
Sunamganj
Hobiganj
Moulovibazar
Jamalpur
Jamalbari
Munshiganj
Kurigram
Narayanganj
Narsingdi
Chapai N. Ganj
Gaibandha
Natore
Sirajganj
Faridpur

1992 16 stations 24 hours

Upazilla
Sariakandi
Khaliajuri
Derai
Ajmiriganj
Sherpur
Sarisabari
Dewanjganj
Munshiganj
Kurigram
Rupganj
Narsingdi
Chapai N. Ganj
Gaibandha
CDMP-II
Gurudaspur
Shahazadpur
Charbhadhrasion

1996 30 stations few 48 hrs


2005 38 stations 72 hours

2012 to 2014 38 stations 120 hrs

additional 16 stations,
(38+16) total 54stations 120 hrs

Thank you very much

www.ffwc.gov.bd
ffwc05@yahoo.com
ffwcbwdb@gmail.com

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