Professional Documents
Culture Documents
www.pamp.com
Italpreziosi SPA
www.heraeus-preciousmetals.com
www.perthmint.com.au
www.igr.com.tr
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total Supply
4,106
4,349
4,539
4,413
4,310
4,362
Physical Demand
3,038
3,807
4,515
4,321
5,041
4,158
Physical Surplus/Deficit
1,068
542
25
192
-732
204
623
382
185
279
-880
-160
39
54
-6
-10
-98
406
106
-154
-78
246
363
Net Balance
Other
ETF Securities
2500
iShares Gold
SPDR Gold Shares
ZKB
1500
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters, collates from respective ETF issuers data
RETAIL INVESTMENT
Other
North America
Europe
China
India
700
600
500
Tonnes
Tonnes
2000
400
300
200
100
0
-100
Q1-10
Q1-11
Q1-12
Q1-13
Q1-14
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
CHINA REMAINS
WORLDS LARGEST CONSUMER*
1600
1400
India
Tonnes
1200
China
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
35
Net-Imports
Exports
Gold Price
350
30
Tonnes
25
250
20
200
15
150
10
100
50
0
Rupees/10g (thousands)
300
0
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Imports
Exports
600
Tonnes
500
400
300
200
100
0
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
400
300
350
Gold Price
300
200
250
150
RNB/g
Tonnes
250
200
100
150
50
0
100
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Exports
1,660 tonnes
1,741 tonnes
cm2
One
is equal to 50 tonnes of gold and each countries flag is proportional to its trade. The whole rectangle
for imports and exports is equal to the total trade and the grey area denotes trade with a country not represented
by a flag.
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters; Swiss Impex
2014
400
-400
-800
Net Sales
-1200
-1600
1948
1958
1968
1978
1988
1998
2008
Russia
Iraq
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
160
Tonnes
Tonnes
120
80
40
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2000
Tonnes
1,500
1000
1,000
500
500
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
1500
2,000
0
2012
2014
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
2000
Processed
Ore Grade
1500
1.6
1000
1.4
500
1.2
2005
Gold Price
1.8
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
3000
2013
2014
2013
2014
2500
All-in
All-in
Total
Total
Cost
Cost
Cash Cost
Cash Cost
2500
2000
1500
1500
1000
US$/oz
US$/oz
2000
1000
500
500
0
0
20
40
60
Cumulative Production %
80
0
100
10
11
350
Dollar
Euro
Rupee
300
250
200
150
100
50
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
Positives
A notable recovery in jewellery demand in developing countries.
Supply is contracting, led by scrap.
Anti-hedging sentiment appears to persist among producers and their investors.
Central banks remain considerable bullion buyers.
Market surplus is set to shrink considerably, to reduce investors burden to clear
the market.
Still uncertainty regarding the economic and fiscal situation in US and Europe,
any monetary tightening will be a gradual process.
12
Negatives
Gold faces increasing headwinds including: strong dollar, better economic outlook
and improving returns on traditional assets.
Still substantial investor gold holdings, scope for further long liquidation.
Falls below psychologically important levels will trigger panic selling. Bargain hunting
could ease if prices continue to trend down.
Physical demand (official bar investment in particular) in India restrained by
government policies.
Although underlying supply/demand fundamentals are likely to improve, a market
surplus will persist making the gold price still dependent on investor activity to mop
this up.
13
THANK YOU
cameron.alexander@thomsonreuters.com
Any
Questions?
14