Professional Documents
Culture Documents
James Chanos
Kynikos Associates
OPEC cracks
Members have competing
interests
Politics pressuring economics
US Shale Revolution
A Gusher Of E&Ps
US production is expected to
grow 6% in 2015 despite a 59%
drop in the US rig count since
September 2014
Production expected to decline
4% in 2016 at the current strip
Source: EIA, Baker Hughes, Bloomberg
Assumed selling price for all reserves is based on a trailing twelve month
average (1st day of each month)
Cost structure used in reserve tests reflect current cost environment
6
E&Ps Squeezed
US oil and gas supply currently cannot tap global demand
Despite price declines, production continues
Federal approvals for exporting limited quantities of US oil and petroleum
products are beginning
E&P company executives are lobbying Congress to lift the export ban on crude
High yield producers are challenged to fund capex in a low price oil
environment
The weakest companies are starting to collapse under the weight of debt, as 8
bankruptcies have been announced in YTD15 vs. 3 bankruptcies between 2012
and 2014
Source: EIA, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Morgan Stanley; 1) Oil Patch Braces for Financial Reckoning, Wall Street Journal, September 15th, 2015
believed
Forward estimates show significant
decline in returns
DVN
EOG
CHK
30,260
23,065
CLR
PXD
30,364
Capex
Free cashflow
(8,766)
(7,748) (12,085)
(5,314)
(1,475)
(14,080)
10,189
9,596
(6,790)
(4,601)
(1,208)
(55)
(260)
(9,223) (13,293)
(6,845)
(4,862)
0.2%
6.8%
0.8%
39.3%
(2.3%)
4,627
5,159
2,850
7,104
2,713
12,045
6,400
11,544
6,990
2,672
4,975
3,918
2,415
1,942
1,703
510
988
(701)
625
470
1.1%
3.4%
(2.2%)
4.7%
3.8%
Economic Return on Capital as: (2015E EBITDA less 10% of YE14 Net
Business Assets) / YE14 Net Business Assets
Net Debt /
Current Ratio Quick Ratio 2016 EBITDA
0.4x
0.2x
1.9x
0.5x
0.3x
5.7x
0.6x
0.2x
3.4x
0.7x
0.4x
4.4x
0.7x
0.4x
2.0x
0.7x
0.2x
4.3x
0.7x
0.6x
3.7x
0.8x
0.5x
2.1x
0.8x
0.7x
5.1x
0.8x
0.5x
2.7x
0.8x
0.3x
1.2x
0.9x
0.8x
3.4x
0.9x
0.6x
1.8x
1.0x
0.5x
2.4x
1.0x
0.5x
3.6x
1.0x
0.6x
1.9x
1.1x
0.8x
1.6x
1.2x
1.0x
2.7x
1.2x
0.9x
2.9x
1.2x
0.8x
2.7x
1.2x
0.8x
1.6x
1.3x
0.6x
1.3x
1.4x
1.2x
2.8x
1.4x
1.0x
1.7x
1.4x
1.0x
1.7x
1.5x
0.6x
6.0x
1.5x
0.8x
2.0x
1.5x
1.2x
2.5x
1.6x
1.2x
0.9x
1.6x
1.2x
1.1x
1.7x
1.4x
2.8x
2.2x
1.8x
0.9x
2.3x
1.9x
1.6x
2.4x
2.0x
0.8x
2.5x
2.4x
0.7x
Cash
Shading: current and quick ratios less than 1.0x, net debt / 2016E
EBITDA greater than 3.0x and cash less than $100m
17
5
2
14
1
1
60
0
2,051
37
2
25
15
0
58
42
931
2,173
496
1,725
45
219
1,572
3,813
909
4
317
257
178
1,367
446
525
2,950
1,958
857
Source: Morgan Stanley, Company filings; 1) The tangle of loose lending to tight oil, Financial Times, October 15th, 2015
10
Chevron
RDS
Total
Exxon
Operating cashflow
130.0
210.8
232.0
161.8
296.6
Capex
(89.2)
(185.5)
(196.8)
(156.2)
(204.1)
40.8
25.3
35.2
5.6
92.6
(26.9)
(54.5)
(69.3)
(44.0)
(174.3)
13.9
(29.1)
(34.1)
(38.4)
(81.7)
(0.8%)
(0.2%)
(1.3%)
1.4%
1.6%
18.0
21.6
17.9
30.0
24.2
52.1
31.8
52.9
56.5
33.8
34.0
10.2
35.0
26.4
9.6
3.5%
7.7%
13.5%
3.7%
12.1%
ROIC 2009
15.4%
14.7%
19.3%
18.0%
21.6%
ROIIC 2009-2Q15
(52.7%)
(1.1%)
(0.6%)
(13.0%)
0.8%
Free cashflow
Dividends and buybacks
FCF post distributions
Total reserves CAGR, 2009-2014
11
Source: Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, International Gas Union Global LNG Report 2015 Edition, US Department of
Energy, Bernstein
12
13
Source: Company Filings, BG Group, Shell CEO Comments at Barclays CEO Energy Conference, September 8, 2015, Reuters, Egypt Independent,
Bloomberg, Barclays
14
15
$90/bbl
Pro-forma a more levered entity with
$68B of net debt and declining cash
flow
2014
Shell
2015E
BG Combined
Shell
BG Combined
Cash
21,607
5,295
26,902
20,288
5,295
25,583
Total debt
45,540
17,507
63,047
78,225
14,961
93,186
Net debt
23,933
12,212
36,145
57,937
9,666
67,603
CFFO
45,044
7,397
52,441
30,573
6,234
36,807
Capex
31,854
8,510
40,364
28,789
6,243
35,032
FCF
13,190
(1,113)
12,077
1,784
(9)
1,775
EBITDA
51,888
8,846
60,734
38,705
6,013
44,718
Capex
31,854
8,510
40,364
28,789
6,243
35,032
EBITDA-Capex
20,034
336
20,370
9,916
(230)
9,686
3,166
606
3,772
2,961
667
3,628
Production (kboe/d)
Source: Bloomberg, International Gas Union Global LNG Report 2015 Edition, Redburn, Bernstein, Citi, UBS, Company filings
16
Greater production
Higher distributions
Chevron
RDS/BG
Total
Exxon
EBITDA
32.4
35.4
52.8
53.9
52.7
Capex
(19.4)
(23.8)
(35.6)
(21.1)
(25.3)
EBITDA - Capex
13.0
11.6
17.2
32.8
27.4
123.1
169.3
253.2
143.3
345.6
TEV/EBITDA
3.8x
4.8x
4.8x
2.7x
6.6x
TEV/(EBITDA - Capex)
9.5x
14.6x
14.7x
4.4x
12.6x
17
18
Cheniere Energy
19
Chenieres Dream
LNG capacity from Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi will total 40Mtpa
No commodity pricing risk gives Cheniere an unique position in the LNG market
there are minimal capex requirements once the projects are online
Sales agreements are indexed to 115% of Henry Hub, which is cheap relative to gas
prices elsewhere
Liquefaction costs only $1/mmBtu but fees range between $2.25-3.50/mmBtu
Icahn raises stake to 12% from 8% and granted two seats on the board
20
Cheniere Reality
21
Source: Solar Energy Industries Association - Solar Market Insight Report 2015 Q2
22
SolarCity
23
installation costs
Competition is increasing and lease rates are declining faster than
costs
Solar leases becomes a liability when selling a home
New homeowner must take over the lease, otherwise the seller must
prepay the remaining payments
SolarCity Math
Returns on invested capital
based on lease revenues are
below 8%
Claims >30% margins on its
leasing business, but requires
outside capital to build new
systems
2Q15 LTM FCF of $(1.9B)
including new systems
25
26
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