Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Cost of Money
Factors affecting cost of money
Production Opportunities
Time preferences for consumption
Risk
Inflation
Interest rate is a function of
Producers expected rate of return on invested capital
Savers time preference for current vs. future consumption
Riskiness of loan
Expected future rate of inflation
IP
S-T Treasury
L-T Treasury
S-T Corporate
L-T Corporate
MRP
DRP
LP
14%
March 1980
12%
10%
8%
term structure.
February 2000
6%
4%
October 2008
2%
0%
0
10
20
30
Years to Maturity
IPN
INFL
t 1
IP1 5% /1 5.00%
IP10 [5% 6% 8%(8)]/10 7.50%
IP20 [5% 6% 8%(18)]/ 20 7.75%
10
Inflation premium
5
Real risk-free rate
0
10
curve.
Upward slope due to an
increase in inflationary
expectations and increasing
maturity risk premium over
time.
Years to
Maturity
20
bonds rated AA (Aa), while AA bonds are less risky than bonds
rated A and so on.
BB-Rated
10
AAA-Rated
Treasury
6.0% Yield Curve
5.9%
5.2%
0
0
10
15
20
Years to
Maturity
is zero.
Long-term rates are an average of current and future short-term
rates.
If PEH is correct, you can use the yield curve to back out
Yield
6.0%
6.2%
6.4%
6.5%
6.5%
If PEH holds, what does the market expect will be the interest rate on
one-year securities, one year from now? Three-year securities, two
years from now?
x%
6.2%
(1.062)2 = (1.060) (1 + X)
1.12784/1.060 = (1 + X)
6.4004% = X
PEH says that one-year securities will yield 6.4004%, one year from
now.
Notice, if an arithmetic average is used, the answer is still very close.
Solve: 6.2% =
(6.0% + X)/2, and the result will be 6.4%.
x%
2
6.5%
PEH says that three-year securities will yield 6.7005%, two years
from now.
Bond Valuation
What is value?
The term value is used in different senses in the finance literature.
Liquidation Value vs. Going Concern Value
Liquidation value is the amount that can be realized if part of
What is value?
Book Value vs. Market Value
all assets of the reporting entity minus the book value of all liabilities of
the reporting entity (SHE = TA-TL)
Market Value of an asset is the price at which the asset trades in the
market place. Almost always, market value of equity is higher than its
book (par) value. However this is not the case with bonds.
What is value?
Market Value vs. Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of an asset is the present value of all cash
Bonds
A bond is a contract wherein a borrower promises to pay interest
by the issuer.
1
(1 R) T
Bond Value C
R
FV
T
(1 R)
zeroes.
$0
$0
$F
T 1
FV
PV
(1 R)T
$0
$0
$0
$1,000
$0 $0 1,
0 1 2 9 30
29
FV
$1,000
PV
$174.11
T
30
(1 R)
(1.06)
30
Consols
Not all bonds have a final maturity.
British consols pay a set amount (i.e., coupon) every period forever.
C
PV
R
Bond Concepts
Bond prices and market interest rates move in opposite directions.
When coupon rate = YTM, price = par value
When coupon rate > YTM, price > par value (premium bond)
When coupon rate < YTM, price < par value (discount bond)
callable bonds.
Most bonds have a deferred call and a declining call premium.
a premium.
a discount.
Definitions
Annualcouponpayment
Current yield (CY)
Currentprice
Changein price
Capital gains yield (CGY)
Beginning price
Expected total return YTM Expected Expected
CY
CGY
7-38
prior to maturity.
Income bond pays interest only when income is earned by the
firm.
Indexed bond interest rate paid is based upon the rate of inflation.
Stock Valuation
flows.
Stock ownership produces cash flows from:
Dividends
Capital Gains
Valuation of Different Types of Stocks
Zero Growth
Constant Growth
Differential Growth
Div 3
Div 1
Div 2
P0
1
2
3
(1 R) (1 R) (1 R)
Div
P0
R
Div 1 Div 0 (1 g )
.
Since future cash flows grow at a constant rate forever, the value
of a constant growth stock is.. the present value of a growing
perpetuity:
Div 1
P0
Rg
Div 1 Div 0 (1 g1 )
Div 0 (1 g1 ) Div 0 (1 g1 ) 2
Div 0 (1 g1 ) N
Div N (1 g 2 )
Div 0 (1 g1 ) N (1 g 2 )
N+1
C
(1 g1 )
PA
1
T
R g1 (1 R)
Div N 1
R g2
PB
N
(1 R)
Div N 1
C (1 g1 )T R g 2
P
1
T
N
R g1 (1 R) (1 R)
Or, we can cash flow it out.
Estimates of Parameters
The value of a firm depends upon its growth rate, g, and its
discount rate, R.
2.
4.
6.
Your broker offers to sell you some shares of Bahnsen and Co.
common stock that paid a dividend of $2.00 yesterday. Bahnsens
dividend is expected to grow at 5% per year for the next 3 years.
a. If you buy the stock, plan to hold it for 3 years, and then sell it at
$34.73, what is the most you should be willing to pay for this
stock, assuming a discount rate of 12%.
b. If the holding period is 5 years rather than 3 years, would this
affect the value of stock today?
that has been wildly successfully. On the basis of this success and anticipated
future success, the following free cash flows (in millions) were projected.
Year
FCF
Year
FCF
5.5
88.8
12.1
107.5
23.8
128.9
44.1
147.1
69.0
10
161.3
After the tenth year, TTCs financial planners anticipate FCF to grow by 6%
every year. Further, this new project has reduced overall enterprise risk,
which in-turn has reduced enterprise cost of capital to 9%.
Assuming (a) market value of TTCs debt to be 1200 million, and (b) 20
million common shares outstanding (no preferred shares), what is value of
TTCs stock as of today (use corporate valuation model).