FPM Term 1: 2015-2016

Probability

04/09/2015

Assignment 1
Due Date: September 10, 2015
Topics covered: Sample Space, Probability, Conditional Probability, and Independence

1.

A group of five strangers start to climb the stairs in their apartment building from the ground floor. There
are 10 floors above.
a. Specify an appropriate sample space and determine the probability that they are all going to
different floors.
b. How does the answer change when each person chooses with probability 1/2 the 10th floor as
the exit floor and the other floors are equally likely as the exit floor?
Mention any assumptions you have made.

2.

Maya tosses r + 1 fair coins and Chaya tosses r fair coins. What is the probability that Maya gets more
tails than Chaya?

3.

A machine produces components for use in cellular phones. At any given time, the machine may be in
one, and only one, of three states: operational, out of control, or down. From experience with this
machine, a quality control engineer knows that the probability that the machine is out of control at any
moment is 0.02, and the probability that it is down is 0.015.
a. What is the relationship between the two events machine is out of control and machine is
down?
b. When the machine is either out of control or down, a repair person must be called. What is the
probability that a repair person must be called right now?
c. Unless the machine is down, it can be used to produce a single item. What is the probability that
the machine can be used to produce a single component right now? What is the relationship
between this event and the event machine is down?

4.

When one is randomly sampling four items from a large number of elements, say n, what is the
probability that all four elements will come from the top quartile of the distribution? What is the
probability that at least one of the four elements will come from the bottom quartile of the distribution?
**

5.

Two chefs A and B are challenged to separately create a new dish in 2 hours. From past experience we
know that:
a. The probability that chef As dish is a hit is 2/3
b. The probability that chef Bs dish is a hit is 1/2
c. The probability that at least one of their dishes is a hit is 3/4
Assuming that only one of the dishes can be labeled a hit, what is the probability that it was created by
chef A?

FPM Term 1: 2015-2016

Probability

04/09/2015

6.

I am taking a probability class and in each week, I can be either up-to-date or I may have fallen behind. If I
am up-to-date in a given week, the probability that I will be up-to-date the following week is 0.8. If I am
behind in the given week, the probability that I will be up-to-date the following week is 0.4. Given that I
am up-to-date this week, what is the probability that I will be up-to-date three weeks later?

7.

Prove that if A and B are independent so are

C
a. A and B
c
c
b. A and B

8.

Suppose that A and B are events such that P(A|B) = P(B|A) and P(AB) = 1 and P(A B) > 0. Prove that
P(A) > 1/2.

** Question 4:
Quartiles break down the distribution of the data (the way the data points are distributed along the number line)
st
into four groups i.e. first quarter, second quarter, third quarter, and fourth quarter. In the question, by 1 quartile
we mean those data points in the first quarter.