PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

马来西亚 技术分析
RHB Research
Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

每周技术观点 2010 年 3 月 22 日
MARKET DATELINE

原产品和外汇
欧元料将重现新卖压…

主要原产品的图表表现：

轻质原油期货 Light Sweet Crude Oil futures （原

图 1∶轻质原油期货（周线图）
油）

♦ 上周，美国轻质原油期货期货延伸其横摆趋势，而小跌至每
桶 80.63 美元。

♦ 在 图 表 上 ， 该 原 产 品 创 下 一 根 “ 类 似 十 字 线 ” （ doji-
like），显示当前走向并不明确。

♦ 加上随机指标（stochastic oscillators）触发一个微小“卖
出”讯号，而 14 日强弱指标（14-day RSI）也微挫，所
以原油仍可能会在本周向下试探 78 美元支撑水平。

♦ 不过，我们还是维持看俏原油的中期展望，基于它仍然站稳
于上升趋势线（UTL）和 40 周移动平均线（即 73.6 美
元）的中期扶持水平以上。阻力水平为 87.00 美元。

原棕油期货 Crude Palm Oil futures （原棕油）

图 2∶原棕油期货（周线图）

♦ 原 棕 油 期 货 （CPO ） 上 周一连 第 2 周 回 退 ， 并一 度 写下
2,528 令吉全周低点。之后，才收 2,577 令吉。

♦ 在图表上，虽然它划出一根黑烛，但它还是守在 10 周移动平
均线以上。

♦ 基于动力指标双双向下滑落，所以原棕油期货本周可能会走
低，并可能会在近日内重新试叩 2,500 令吉强大关卡。

♦ 虽然如此，我们认为，原棕油期货将有能力守住 2,500 令吉
以上，并将有望重新试探 2,722 令吉近来高点和 2,760 令吉
重要水平。

♦ 一旦破除 2,760 令吉，它会在接下来挺向 3,000 令吉至

3,300 令吉之间阻力区前进。

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（ IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES）

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特定外汇的图表解读：

图 3∶令吉兑美元（周线图） 令吉兑美元 Ringgit （令吉）/ US$（美元）

♦ 诚如所料，令吉兑美元图表于上周触及 3.29 的目标水平。

♦ 可是，由于令吉却在接近 3.29 水平面对一些强大阻力，迫

使它形成一根“类似启明星型态”（morning star）。

♦ 这种形态建议，美元兑令吉有望在本周反弹。

♦ 不过，鉴于动力指标仍然维持疲弱，所以我们并不期待它将
会出现一轮强势反弹。

♦ 明显的阻力仍然处于 3.40 水平和介于 3.45 的延伸性颈

线。

♦ 展望未来，若它丢失 3.29，令吉将会在跟进买盘动力下进
一步走强至 3.07。

图 4∶日元兑美元（周线图） 日元兑美元 Japanese Yen （日元）/ US$（美元）

♦ 上周，日元兑美元图表继续在下降趋势阻力线（DRL）（即
91）面临显著的阻力。

♦ 在图表上，它形成一根潜在的“镊顶”（tweezer top），
标志着美元经过近日的复苏后，可能会回退。

♦ 技术而言，虽然随机指标持续看俏，但是 DRL 将在接下来

限制日元处于 91 以下。

♦ 事实上，我们仍然维持之前的预测，即它将会试叩 87 水平
的预测。

♦ 一旦破除 87，日元将在跟进买盘动力下扩大升势至 2009

年 11 月的 84.80 点低点和位于 79.8 低档支撑水平。

图 5∶欧元兑美元（周线图） 欧元兑美元 Euro Dollar （欧元）/ US$（美元）

♦ 随着欧元兑美元之前所形成的黑烛暗示欧元会走强，但是它
以“看涨吞没型态”（bullish engulfing）报开。

♦ 这意味着经过连续多周在 0.73 进行趁低吸购活动后，欧元

上周又再面对新抛风。

♦ 再加上，它收高于 0.73 关键水平，显示欧元兑美元已准备

在近期回软至 0.77 和 0.80。

♦ 除非它在本周有能力回退至 0.73 阻力水平以下，否则我们

认为，欧元将会在来周继续走软。

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 美元指数 US Dollar Index （DXY）
图 6∶美元指数（周线图）
♦ 与欧元兑美元有所不同的是，美元指数（DXY）上周回弹，
但却无法冲破 81 关键阻力水平。

♦ 其实，以它于上周五的收盘看来，美元指数以一根“上吊
线”（hangman）报收，显示它将在来周回退。

♦ 这也符合了前周的“镊顶”蜡烛形态，即表示美元将会走
软。

♦ 不过，从好坏参半的动力解读看来，我们不认为，它将会在
近期大幅滑落。反而，该指数可能会逼近 81，即使近期出
现持续性的抛风。

♦ 其扶持水平位于 78，即靠近 21 周运动平均线。

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
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manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
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Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:

Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.

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