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Hypothesis
FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

Forotheruses,seeHypothesis(disambiguation).
"Hypothetical"redirectshere.Forthe2001progressivemetalalbum,seeHypothetical(album).
Ahypothesis(pluralhypotheses)isaproposedexplanationfora
phenomenon.Forahypothesistobeascientifichypothesis,the
scientificmethodrequiresthatonecantestit.Scientistsgenerally
basescientifichypothesesonpreviousobservationsthatcannot
satisfactorilybeexplainedwiththeavailablescientifictheories.
Eventhoughthewords"hypothesis"and"theory"areoftenused
synonymously,ascientifichypothesisisnotthesameasascientific
theory.Aworkinghypothesisisaprovisionallyacceptedhypothesis
proposedforfurtherresearch.[1]
Adifferentmeaningofthetermhypothesisisusedinformallogic,
todenotetheantecedentofapropositionthusintheproposition"If
P,thenQ",Pdenotesthehypothesis(orantecedent)Qcanbe
calledaconsequent.Pistheassumptionina(possibly
counterfactual)WhatIfquestion.

AndreasCellariushypothesis,
demonstratingtheplanetarymotions
ineccentricandepicyclicalorbits

Theadjectivehypothetical,meaning"havingthenatureofahypothesis",or"beingassumedtoexistasan
immediateconsequenceofahypothesis",canrefertoanyofthesemeaningsoftheterm"hypothesis".

Contents
1Uses
2Scientifichypothesis
3Workinghypothesis
4Hypotheses,conceptsandmeasurement
4.1Statisticalhypothesistesting
5Seealso
6Notes
7References
8Externallinks

Uses
Initsancientusage,hypothesisreferredtoasummaryoftheplotofaclassicaldrama.TheEnglishword
hypothesiscomesfromtheancientGreek(hupothesis),meaning"toputunder"or"tosuppose".[1]

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InPlato'sMeno(86e87b),Socratesdissectsvirtuewithamethodusedbymathematicians,[2]thatof
"investigatingfromahypothesis."[3]Inthissense,'hypothesis'referstoacleverideaortoaconvenient
mathematicalapproachthatsimplifiescumbersomecalculations.[4]CardinalBellarminegaveafamous
exampleofthisusageinthewarningissuedtoGalileointheearly17thcentury:thathemustnottreatthe
motionoftheEarthasareality,butmerelyasahypothesis.[5]
Incommonusageinthe21stcentury,ahypothesisreferstoaprovisionalideawhosemeritrequires
evaluation.Forproperevaluation,theframerofahypothesisneedstodefinespecificsinoperationalterms.
Ahypothesisrequiresmoreworkbytheresearcherinordertoeitherconfirmordisproveit.Induecourse,a
confirmedhypothesismaybecomepartofatheoryoroccasionallymaygrowtobecomeatheoryitself.
Normally,scientifichypotheseshavetheformofamathematicalmodel.[6]Sometimes,butnotalways,one
canalsoformulatethemasexistentialstatements,statingthatsomeparticularinstanceofthephenomenon
underexaminationhassomecharacteristicandcausalexplanations,whichhavethegeneralformof
universalstatements,statingthateveryinstanceofthephenomenonhasaparticularcharacteristic.
InEntrepreneurialscience,ahypothesisisusedtoformulateprovisionalideaswithinabusinesssetting.The
formulatedhypothesisisthenevaluatedwhereeitherthehypothesisisproventobe"true"or"false"through
averifiabilityorfalsifiabilityorientedExperiment.[7][8][9]
Anyusefulhypothesiswillenablepredictionsbyreasoning(includingdeductivereasoning).Itmight
predicttheoutcomeofanexperimentinalaboratorysettingortheobservationofaphenomenoninnature.
Thepredictionmayalsoinvokestatisticsandonlytalkaboutprobabilities.KarlPopper,followingothers,
hasarguedthatahypothesismustbefalsifiable,andthatonecannotregardapropositionortheoryas
scientificifitdoesnotadmitthepossibilityofbeingshownfalse.Otherphilosophersofsciencehave
rejectedthecriterionoffalsifiabilityorsupplementeditwithothercriteria,suchasverifiability(e.g.,
verificationism)orcoherence(e.g.,confirmationholism).Thescientificmethodinvolvesexperimentation,
totesttheabilityofsomehypothesistoadequatelyanswerthequestionunderinvestigation.Incontrast,
unfetteredobservationisnotaslikelytoraiseunexplainedissuesoropenquestionsinscience,aswouldthe
formulationofacrucialexperimenttotestthehypothesis.Athoughtexperimentmightalsobeusedtotest
thehypothesisaswell.
Inframingahypothesis,theinvestigatormustnotcurrentlyknowtheoutcomeofatestorthatitremains
reasonablyundercontinuinginvestigation.Onlyinsuchcasesdoestheexperiment,testorstudypotentially
increasetheprobabilityofshowingthetruthofahypothesis.[10]:pp17,4950Iftheresearcheralreadyknows
theoutcome,itcountsasa"consequence"andtheresearchershouldhavealreadyconsideredthiswhile
formulatingthehypothesis.Ifonecannotassessthepredictionsbyobservationorbyexperience,the
hypothesisneedstobetestedbyothersprovidingobservations.Forexample,anewtechnologyortheory
mightmakethenecessaryexperimentsfeasible.

Scientifichypothesis
Peoplerefertoatrialsolutiontoaproblemasahypothesis,oftencalledan"educatedguess"[11][12]because
itprovidesasuggestedsolutionbasedontheevidence.However,somescientistsrejecttheterm"educated
guess"asincorrect.[13]Experimentersmaytestandrejectseveralhypothesesbeforesolvingtheproblem.

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AccordingtoSchickandVaughn,[14]researchersweighingupalternativehypothesesmaytakeinto
consideration:
Testability(comparefalsifiabilityasdiscussedabove)
Parsimony(asintheapplicationof"Occam'srazor",discouragingthepostulationofexcessive
numbersofentities)
Scopetheapparentapplicationofthehypothesistomultiplecasesofphenomena
Fruitfulnesstheprospectthatahypothesismayexplainfurtherphenomenainthefuture
Conservatismthedegreeof"fit"withexistingrecognizedknowledgesystems.

Workinghypothesis
Mainarticle:Workinghypothesis
Aworkinghypothesisisahypothesisthatisprovisionallyacceptedasabasisforfurtherresearch[15]inthe
hopethatatenabletheorywillbeproduced,evenifthehypothesisultimatelyfails.[16]Likeallhypotheses,a
workinghypothesisisconstructedasastatementofexpectations,whichcanbelinkedtotheexploratory
researchpurposeinempiricalinvestigation.Workinghypothesesandareoftenusedasaconceptual
frameworkinqualitativeresearch.[17][18]
Theprovisionalnatureofworkinghypothesesmakethemusefulasanorganizingdeviceinapplied
research.Heretheyactlikeausefulguidetoaddressproblemsthatarestillinaformativephase.[19]
Inrecentyears,philosophersofsciencehavetriedtointegratethevariousapproachestoevaluating
hypotheses,andthescientificmethodingeneral,toformamorecompletesystemthatintegratesthe
individualconcernsofeachapproach.Notably,ImreLakatosandPaulFeyerabend,KarlPopper'scolleague
andstudent,respectively,haveproducednovelattemptsatsuchasynthesis.

Hypotheses,conceptsandmeasurement
ConceptsinHempel'sdeductivenomologicalmodelplayakeyroleinthedevelopmentandtestingof
hypotheses.Mostformalhypothesesconnectconceptsbyspecifyingtheexpectedrelationshipsbetween
propositions.Whenasetofhypothesesaregroupedtogethertheybecomeatypeofconceptualframework.
Whenaconceptualframeworkiscomplexandincorporatescausalityorexplanationitisgenerallyreferred
toasatheory.AccordingtonotedphilosopherofscienceCarlGustavHempel"Anadequateempirical
interpretationturnsatheoreticalsystemintoatestabletheory:Thehypothesiswhoseconstituenttermshave
beeninterpretedbecomecapableoftestbyreferencetoobservablephenomena.Frequentlytheinterpreted
hypothesiswillbederivativehypothesesofthetheorybuttheirconfirmationordisconfirmationby
empiricaldatawillthenimmediatelystrengthenorweakenalsotheprimitivehypothesesfromwhichthey
werederived."[20]
Hempelprovidesausefulmetaphorthatdescribestherelationshipbetweenaconceptualframeworkandthe
frameworkasitisobservedandperhapstested(interpretedframework)."Thewholesystemfloats,asit
were,abovetheplaneofobservationandisanchoredtoitbyrulesofinterpretation.Thesemightbeviewed
asstringswhicharenotpartofthenetworkbutlinkcertainpointsofthelatterwithspecificplacesinthe
planeofobservation.Byvirtueofthoseinterpretativeconnections,thenetworkcanfunctionasascientific
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theory"[21]Hypotheseswithconceptsanchoredintheplaneofobservationarereadytobetested.In"actual
scientificpracticetheprocessofframingatheoreticalstructureandofinterpretingitarenotalwayssharply
separated,sincetheintendedinterpretationusuallyguidestheconstructionofthetheoretician."[22]Itis,
however,"possibleandindeeddesirable,forthepurposesoflogicalclarification,toseparatethetwosteps
conceptually."[22]

Statisticalhypothesistesting
Mainarticle:Statisticalhypothesistesting
Whenapossiblecorrelationorsimilarrelationbetweenphenomenaisinvestigated,suchaswhethera
proposedremedyiseffectiveintreatingadisease,thehypothesisthatarelationexistscannotbeexamined
thesamewayonemightexamineaproposednewlawofnature.Insuchaninvestigation,ifthetested
remedyshowsnoeffectinafewcases,thesedonotnecessarilyfalsifythehypothesis.Instead,statistical
testsareusedtodeterminehowlikelyitisthattheoveralleffectwouldbeobservedifthehypothesized
relationdoesnotexist.Ifthatlikelihoodissufficientlysmall(e.g.,lessthan1%),theexistenceofarelation
maybeassumed.Otherwise,anyobservedeffectmaybeduetopurechance.
Instatisticalhypothesistesting,twohypothesesarecompared.Thesearecalledthenullhypothesisandthe
alternativehypothesis.Thenullhypothesisisthehypothesisthatstatesthatthereisnorelationbetweenthe
phenomenawhoserelationisunderinvestigation,oratleastnotoftheformgivenbythealternative
hypothesis.Thealternativehypothesis,asthenamesuggests,isthealternativetothenullhypothesis:it
statesthatthereissomekindofrelation.Thealternativehypothesismaytakeseveralforms,dependingon
thenatureofthehypothesizedrelationinparticular,itcanbetwosided(forexample:thereissomeeffect,
inayetunknowndirection)oronesided(thedirectionofthehypothesizedrelation,positiveornegative,is
fixedinadvance).[23]
Conventionalsignificancelevelsfortestinghypotheses(acceptableprobabilitiesofwronglyrejectingatrue
nullhypothesis)are.10,.05,and.01.Whetherthenullhypothesisisrejectedandthealternativehypothesis
isaccepted,mustbedeterminedinadvance,beforetheobservationsarecollectedorinspected.Ifthese
criteriaaredeterminedlater,whenthedatatobetestedarealreadyknown,thetestisinvalid.[24]
Theaboveprocedureisactuallydependentonthenumberoftheparticipants(unitsorsamplesize)thatis
includedinthestudy.Forinstance,thesamplesizemaybetoosmalltorejectanullhypothesisand,
therefore,itisrecommendedtospecifythesamplesizefromthebeginning.Itisadvisabletodefineasmall,
mediumandlargeeffectsizeforeachofanumberofimportantstatisticaltestswhichareusedtotestthe
hypotheses.[25]

Seealso
Axiom
Casestudy
Conceptualframework
Confirmationholism
Conjecture
Explanandum
Hypothesistheory,aresearchareaincognitivepsychology
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothesis

Wikisourcehasthetextof
the1911Encyclopdia
Britannicaarticle
Hypothesis.

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Logic
Logicalpositivism
Operationalization
PhilosophiaeNaturalisPrincipiaMathematicaforNewton'spositiononhypotheses
Proposition
Reductionism
Researchdesign
Scientificmethod
Scientifictheory
Sociologyofscientificknowledge
Theorem
Theories
Thesisstatement
Thoughtexperiment
Workinghypothesis

Notes
1. Hilborn,RayMangel,Marc(1997).Theecologicaldetective:confrontingmodelswithdata
(http://books.google.com/books?id=katmvQDi8PMC&pg=PA24).PrincetonUniversityPress.p.24.ISBN978
0691034973.Retrieved22August2011.
2. WilburR.Knorr,"Constructionasexistenceproofinancientgeometry",p.125,asselectedbyJeanChristianidis
(ed.),ClassicsinthehistoryofGreekmathematics,Kluwer.
3. GregoryVlastos,MylesBurnyeat(1994)Socraticstudies,CambridgeISBN0521447356,p.1
4. "Neutralhypotheses,thoseofwhichthesubjectmattercanneverbedirectlyprovedordisproved,arevery
numerousinallsciences."MorrisCohenandErnestNagel(1934)Anintroductiontologicandscientific
methodp.375.NewYork:Harcourt,Brace,andCompany.
5. "Bellarmine(Ital.Bellarmino),RobertoFrancescoRomolo",EncyclopdiaBritannica,EleventhEdition.:
'BellarminedidnotproscribetheCopernicansystem...allheclaimedwasthatitshouldbepresentedasa
hypothesisuntilitshouldreceivescientificdemonstration.' Thisarticleincorporatestextfromapublication
nowinthepublicdomain:Chisholm,Hugh,ed.(1911).EncyclopdiaBritannica(11thed.).Cambridge
UniversityPress.
6. Crease,RobertP.(2008)TheGreatEquationsISBN9780393062045,p.112liststheconservationofenergy
asanexampleofaccountingaconstantofmotion.HypothesizedbySadiCarnot,truthdemonstratedbyJames
PrescottJoule,provenbyEmmyNoether.
7. HarvardBusinessReview(2013)"WhyLeanStartupChangesEverything"(https://hbr.org/2013/05/whythe
leanstartupchangeseverything)
8. TristanKromer2014"SuccessMetricvs.FailCondition"(http://grasshopperherder.com/successmetricvsfail
conditiontothepain/)
9. LeanStartupCircle"WhatisLeanStartup?"
(http://leanstartup.pbworks.com/w/page/65946049/Intro%20to%20Lean%20Startup)
10. Popper1959
11. "Whenitisnotclearunderwhichlawofnatureaneffectorclassofeffectbelongs,wetrytofillthisgapby
meansofaguess.Suchguesseshavebeengiventhenameconjecturesorhypotheses.",HansChristian
rsted(1811)"FirstIntroductiontoGeneralPhysics"18.SelectedScientificWorksofHansChristianrsted,
ISBN0691043345p.297
12. "Ingeneralwelookforanewlawbythefollowingprocess.Firstweguessit....",RichardFeynman(1965)
TheCharacterofPhysicalLawp.156
13. "JustaTheory":7MisusedScienceWords(http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=justatheory7
misusedsciencewords)
14. Schick,TheodoreVaughn,Lewis(2002).Howtothinkaboutweirdthings:criticalthinkingforaNewAge.
Boston:McGrawHillHigherEducation.ISBN0767420489.
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15. OxfordDictionaryofSportsScience&Medicine.Eprint(http://www.answers.com/topic/workinghypothesis)via
Answers.com.
16. Seein"hypothesis",CenturyDictionarySupplement,v.1,1909,NewYork:TheCenturyCompany.Reprinted,
v.11,p.616(http://www.archive.org/stream/centurydictionar11whituoft#page/616/mode/1up)(viaInternet
Archive)oftheCenturyDictionaryandCyclopedia,1911.
hypothesis[...]Workinghypothesis,ahypothesissuggestedorsupportedinsomemeasureby
featuresofobservedfacts,fromwhichconsequencesmaybededucedwhichcanbetestedby
experimentandspecialobservations,andwhichitisproposedtosubjecttoanextendedcourseof
suchinvestigation,withthehopethat,evenshouldthehypothesisthusbeoverthrown,such
researchmayleadtoatenabletheory.
17. PatriciaM.Shields,HassanTajalli(2006)."IntermediateTheory:TheMissingLinkinSuccessfulStudent
Scholarship"(http://ecommons.txstate.edu/polsfacp/39/).JournalofPublicAffairsEducation12(3):313334.
18. PatriciaM.Shields(1998)."PragmatismAsaPhilosophyofScience:AToolForPublicAdministration".InJay
D.White.ResearchinPublicAdministration(http://ecommons.txstate.edu/polsfacp/33/)4.pp.195225[211].
ISBN1559388889.
19. PatriciaM.ShieldsandNandhiniRangarajan.2013.APlaybookforResearchMethods
(http://books.google.com/books?
id=tVYbAgAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=inauthor:%22Patricia+M.+Shields%22&hl=en&sa=X&ei=c3iIU6
X7HdOYyASjlIDwBw&ved=0CC4Q6wEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=false.):IntegratingConceptualFrameworks
andProjectManagement].Stillwater,OK:NewForumsPress.pp.109157
20. Hempel,C.G.(1952).Fundamentalsofconceptformationinempiricalscience.Chicago,Illinois:TheUniversity
ofChicagoPress,p.36
21. Hempel,C.G.(1952).Fundamentalsofconceptformationinempiricalscience.Chicago,Illinois:TheUniversity
ofChicagoPress,p.36.
22. Hempel,C.G.(1952).Fundamentalsofconceptformationinempiricalscience.Chicago,Illinois:TheUniversity
ofChicagoPress,p.33.
23. Altman.DG.,PracticalStatisticsforMedicalResearch,CRCPress,1990,Section8.5,
(http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=v
walRnRxWQC&pg=PA168&dq=statistical+hypothesis+medical&hl=en&sa=X&ei=oFm
U_CbLYexPIragIAB&ved=0CCEQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=statistical%20hypothesis%20medical&f=false)
24. Mellenbergh,G.J.(2008).Chapter8:Researchdesigns:Testingofresearchhypotheses.InH.J.Adr&G.J.
Mellenbergh(Eds.)(withcontributionsbyD.J.Hand),AdvisingonResearchMethods:Aconsultant'scompanion
(pp.183209).Huizen,TheNetherlands:JohannesvanKesselPublishing
25. Altman.DG.,PracticalStatisticsforMedicalResearch,CRCPress,1990,Section15.3,
(http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=v
walRnRxWQC&pg=PA168&dq=statistical+hypothesis+medical&hl=en&sa=X&ei=oFm
U_CbLYexPIragIAB&ved=0CCEQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=statistical%20hypothesis%20medical&f=false)

References
Popper,KarlR.(1959),TheLogicofScientificDiscovery1934,1959.

Externallinks
"Howscienceworks"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothesis

Lookuphypothesisin
Wiktionary,thefree
dictionary.

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Wikiversityhaslearning
materialsaboutHypothesis

(http://undsci.berkeley.edu/article/0_0_0/howscienceworks_20),UnderstandingSciencebythe
UniversityofCaliforniaMuseumofPaleontology.
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