Burmas ethnic areas all but peaceful despite

recent ceasefire

In
this file photo, a young female recruit of the Kachin Independence Army, one of the country's largest armed
ethnic groups, participates in battle drills at a training camp near Laiza in Myanmar. Pic: AP.

by Michele Penna-1st November 2015

TWO weeks after a National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) was signed between Burmas
central authorities and a number of ethnic armed groups, the countrys ethnic areas
remain all but peaceful.
According to a dispatch by UNHCR, the United Nations commission for refugees,
sporadic clashes between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and Burmese armed
forces continue in Kachin State, the countrys northernmost province, forcing civilians
to hide in forests.

Outright war in the area broke out in 2011, when the army terminated a bilateral
agreement signed in 1994, and has since remained tense, with more clashes taking
place in June this year.
Unable to leave the jungle area where they have sought safety, they are in dire need of
emergency shelter, food and medicine. Initial reports suggest that some 40 per cent of
the trapped population are children under the age of 15, says UNHCR.
Even less peaceful, if possible, is Shan State. Since early October, the armed forces
have carried out an offensive against the Shan State Army North (SSA-N) which left
over 3000 civilians displaced, while fighting was also reported in the southern portion
of the province.
These reports stand in striking contrast to optimistic promises of peace made before
the ceasefire deal was signed on October 15.
That agreement was the result of talks between the government and ethnic militias
which had been underway all year long. In March, the ethnic groups negotiators
signed a draft agreement which seemed likely to pave the way for a national ceasefire.
In June, ethnic leaders rejected the deal and proposed a series of amendments, the
most controversial of which was the inclusion of the Arakan Army (AA), the Taang
National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance
Army (MNDAA) into the process.
The government, on various grounds, had no intention to allow these three
organizations to join the NCA and eventually a watered-down version of the agreement
was signed only by eight rebel armies, effectively killing the national character of the
deal.
Those who stayed out and among them are some of the countrys largest ethnic

armies argued that a national ceasefire could not possibly exclude three active
groups.

In this file photo soldiers from the Kachin Independence Army, one of
Myanmars largest armed ethnic groups, rest near a rally at Laiza in
Myanmar. Pic: AP.
Their exclusion raised eyebrows among observers, too. To put it plainly, some feared
that the NCA was a tactic to divide the rebels, regroup and eliminate them one by one
a fear that has strengthened since government troops launched the current offensive
in Shan State.
It definitely seems a divide-and-rule strategy, says Ariana Zarleen, co-founder of
Burma Link, an organization that works with ethnic minorities. It is the classic tactic
of talking with some groups while attacking others, and they have been successful at it.
For a while, it seemed the ethnic groups were united and holding to their demands, but
eventually it all fell apart. Now the split is not only among different groups, but even

within single organizations, she told Asian Correspondent.

The specific reasons why attacks have been launched in Shan State remain unclear. It
may be that they are trying to pressure the SSA-N to sign the ceasefire, says Ms.
Zarleen, but she cautions that the opposite could be true, too. Some people say that
the armed forces attacked because they want to get total control over the area, she
contends.
Ongoing war is not the only news to come out of Burmas peripheral areas in recent
days. On October 26, the United Wa State Army (UWSA), usually regarded as the most
powerful militia in the country, invited 11 ethnic groups which did not sign the
ceasefire to assemble in the capital of the Wa Special Region for a conference.
The UWSA is the heir of the now defunct Communist Party of Burma (CPB) and was
not part of the ceasefire agreement (its leadership seeks autonomy rather than
federalism, as opposed to most others).
the attacks in northern Shan State are believed to be a kind of
punishment for not signing
According to the Irrawaddy, Zhao Xiaofu, a spokesperson for UWSA, said that the
meeting will focus on the views of ethnic armed groups on the election and how we,
ethnic armed groups, should engage with the new government.
It is easy to guess that the war in northern Shan State may have played a role in the
UWSAs decision. According to Tom Kramer, a researcher with the Transnational
Institute (TNI), the attacks in northern Shan State are believed to be a kind of
punishment for not signing, but they are also aimed at cutting the SSA from the
UWSA, their main ally.
The Wa are very worried about this because the situation is deteriorating, he says,

mentioning that the MNDAA, one of the three groups excluded from the ceasefire deal,
is also one of their allies.
This is part of a very long strategy on the part of the central authorities: it is about
managing conflict, not solving it, argues Mr. Kramer, adding that the present
offensive raises a lot of serious questions about the government and the armed
forces.
Posted by Thavam