Professional Documents
Culture Documents
OC TOBER 2006
Finished?
How the 2006 elections will
transform American politics
inside:
Can the Democrats retake Congress? 3
The impending Republican implosion 5
Convictions, indictments, and ineptitude 6
Getting dirty in New Jersey 8
in this issue
diskord.
the journal for progressive thought
ELECTION PREVIEW 2006
Volume III • Issue 1 • October 2006
The Election Overview • by Sam Boyd • 3
E ditorial B oard
The Impending Republican Implosion • by Will Bunnett • 5
Managing Editors
Convictions, Indictments, and Ineptitude • by Matt Kennedy • 6 Julie Fry & Sam Boyd
Copy Editors
Iraq Makes the 6th District a Hard Place for Republicans • by Mario Diaz-Perez • 7 Aaron Brown & Josh Segal
Copy Assistant
Getting Dirty in New Jersey • by James Kraft • 8 Branwen Francis
Domestic Editor
Julie Fry
3 International Editor
7 Aleks Ciric
Politics Editor
Sam Boyd
Culture Editors
Julia Simon
Features Editor
Burke Butler
Design, Graphics & Layout
Rachel Berkowitz & Luke Joyner
Cover Art
Rodrigo Ferrari
Contributors
Will Bunnett
Sam Boyd
James Conway
Matt Kennedy
James Kraft
M ission S tatement
6 5 8 With our quarterly publication, Diskord, we intend
to fill the void that exists between the student
community, progressive causes, and the outside world
at the University of Chicago.
healthcare. That said, Republicans are better prepared called “the prophet” by the Washington Post— respectively) faces a rather bland opponent and is
than Democrats were in ’94 and the last two round of puts likely Democratic gains at 25-30 seats. Stuart expected to win comfortably. Nonetheless each race
redistricting have favored the majority party. Rothenberg hedges, putting the number at 18-25 is within 10 points and could tighten before election
1994 was also the grand finale of a long but “quite possibly more.” Congressional Quarterly, day. Incumbency is powerful.
process of political transformation in the South. a Washington magazine, labels 25 seats as “no clear Maryland: Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin is
While Republicans won all over the country, favorite” or more favorable to the Democrats. The
Republicans gained the most in southern states. The
long transformation of conservative southerners
National Journal, another insider magazine, does not
make predictions but suggests that Democrats seem
Even more than in a typical
into Republican—a transformation that began with very likely to retake 15 seats and may, “if a sizable wave election, the outcome this November
Nixon’s southern strategy and put Reagan in the
White House—culminated in the 1994 election.
emerges,” take as many as 40 seats. Republicans hold
the first 38 seats that the Journal ranks as most likely
will depend on turnout.
A similar, if less dramatic, change may occur in to switch parties
2006. Northeastern moderate Republicans like The Iowa Electronic Market, which runs expected to pick up this seat vacated by Democrat
Rep. Christopher Shays of Connecticut and Sen. an online futures market where investors speculate Paul Sarbanes but Lieutenant Governor Michael
Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island are in serious danger. on political and financial questions and has a good Steele has made it an unusually tough contest. Steele,
According to the ultra-insider political magazine record predicting presidential races, puts the odds the most prominent African-American in the GOP,
The National Journal, eight of the 30 seats most of a Democratic takeover of the house at 66 percent. ran a series of fun and clever ads, but his positions are
likely to change hands are in Northeastern simply too conservative for most Maryland
states. Democrats also see opportunities in voters and he seems unlikely to close the
districts held by moderate Republicans that gap with Cardin.
went for Bush or Kerry by only by a few New Jersey: Governor John Corzine
points. was elected from the Senate a year ago and
Even more than in a typical election, appointed Rep. Bob Menendez to replace
the outcome this November will depend on him. Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr., son
turnout. Will evangelicals stay home out of popular former governor Tom Kean Sr.,
of disgust with Republican handling of the has run a cautious but tough campaign
Mark Foley issue? How well will the much- highlighting Menendez’s potentially
vaunted RNC turnout program known as corrupt dealings with a local politician in
the “72-hour plan” work in this cycle? These Trenton, NJ. Menendez looked like he was
are the questions that will determine if in serious danger at the end of September,
there really is a democratic wave. but he has rebounded and opened up a
Predicting elections is a notoriously respectable lead in the last weeks. Voters
tricky business, but the following are starting to question if Kean, who has
observations, taken from noted political only been in congress for a few years, has
forecasters and recent polls should give enough experience. They are also figuring
some idea of what the picture is as Diskord out that he is not the same person as his
goes to press, about 10 days before the famous father.
election: Tennessee: Here’s where things get
The House: interesting. This seat, vacated by Senate
For months now, Democrats have Majority Leader Bill Frist, was never seen
led in a generic congressional ballot—a poll that asks Perhaps the most interesting comment comes from as competitive. The Republicans even got their
if voters would prefer to vote for a Republican or Frank Luntz—easily the most well known Republican preferred candidate in the primary, moderate former
Democrat for Congress. Generic ballot polls of voters pollster and key figure in the 1994 election. “I’ve given Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker. However, Corker ran
in “competitive” seats taken in this election cycle up on 2006,” he says. Republicans have “already made a limp campaign and his opponent, Rep. Harold Ford
have favored Democrats as well. The Democrats’ so many mistakes, there’s no way they can fix it in two Jr., another prominent African-American candidate,
lead is larger than the Republicans advantage was weeks. But I’m worried now they’re going to lose all ran a remarkable and highly effective campaign
before the 1994 election. That said, the relationship the marbles.” highlighting his religious values and moderate stands
between generic ballot lead and actual seat gains has The Senate: on issues. At the beginning of October Ford had a small
been weak in recent years. Furthermore, the generic Democrats are not as likely to retake the lead, but Corker has counterattacked, highlighting
ballot tends to exaggerate Democratic chances for Senate, primarily because the Democratic minority the DC prep school Ford attended as a child and his
unknown reasons. Nonetheless, the national-level is proportionally smaller than it is in the House. But lack of experience outside politics. Reaction to the
data, imperfect though it may be, suggests that Senate races tend to be more vulnerable to national RNC’s racially suggestive ad may decide the race.
Democrats go into the home stretch of the race with trends than House races. Indeed, Democrats have Voters will either be swayed by it or disgusted.
a substantial lead. come much further than anyone expected. In the Virginia: George Allen was supposed to
As the campaign enters its final weeks, Senate, unlike in the House, polling is sophisticated cruise to reelection. But he found a tough opponent
polls show many Republican incumbents behind enough and races few enough that we can attempt a in former Secretary of the Navy Jim Webb and shot
or narrowly leading their Democratic challengers. state-by-state breakdown of the most competitive himself in the foot when he referred, on video, to
Unfortunately, in some cases, one poll will show races. The following races are competitive. They an Indian-American Webb campaign worker as
the challenger 15 points up, while in the next the are listed in reverse order of the likelihood of a “Macaca”—an ethnic slur used in Tunisia where
challenger will be 15 points down. Many theoretically Democratic victory. his mother is from, as well as among certain white-
competitive seats have not been polled independently Minnesota: What was supposed to be a supremacist groups. This, coupled with a long history
at all. However, most pollsters agree that what polling marquee race after Democratic Senator Mark Dayton of dubious racial incidents and a crooked stock deal,
there is seems consistent with national-level trends declined to run for a second term has turned into a has brought Webb within a few points of a lead.
favoring Democrats. snooze-fest as Rep. Amy Klobucher has buried her However, Allen is still flush with cash and his slump
Democrats currently need to gain 15 seats to opponent, GOP Rep. Mark Kennedy. seems to have stopped. This is going to be extremely
win the majority, but the question on many forecasters’ Washington, Michigan, and Arizona: In close no matter who wins.
minds is whether they will get the 20-30 they need each race, a somewhat dull and unpopular incumbent
to have a workable majority. Charlie Cook—recently (a Democrat, a Democrat, and a Republican, continued on page 7
election preview 5