You are on page 1of 8

diskord.

OC TOBER 2006

the journal for progressive thought

Finished?
How the 2006 elections will
transform American politics

inside:
Can the Democrats retake Congress? 3
The impending Republican implosion 5
Convictions, indictments, and ineptitude 6
Getting dirty in New Jersey 8
in this issue
diskord.
the journal for progressive thought
ELECTION PREVIEW 2006
Volume III • Issue 1 • October 2006
The Election Overview • by Sam Boyd • 3
E ditorial B oard
The Impending Republican Implosion • by Will Bunnett • 5
Managing Editors
Convictions, Indictments, and Ineptitude • by Matt Kennedy • 6 Julie Fry & Sam Boyd
Copy Editors
Iraq Makes the 6th District a Hard Place for Republicans • by Mario Diaz-Perez • 7 Aaron Brown & Josh Segal
Copy Assistant
Getting Dirty in New Jersey • by James Kraft • 8 Branwen Francis
Domestic Editor
Julie Fry
3 International Editor
7 Aleks Ciric
Politics Editor
Sam Boyd
Culture Editors
Julia Simon
Features Editor
Burke Butler
Design, Graphics & Layout
Rachel Berkowitz & Luke Joyner
Cover Art
Rodrigo Ferrari

Contributors
Will Bunnett
Sam Boyd
James Conway
Matt Kennedy
James Kraft

M ission S tatement
6 5 8 With our quarterly publication, Diskord, we intend
to fill the void that exists between the student
community, progressive causes, and the outside world
at the University of Chicago.

Our publication will provide a centralized hub for


progressives to voice their causes and activities to the
greater student body.

We furthermore seek to underscore the relevance


of campus student issues to real world current events
through an accessible print publication.

Because of our quarterly format we will provide in


depth coverage and analysis of international, domestic,
and cultural issues.

Also, we will provide a much needed progressive


Images in this issue courtesy of Wikipedia, Julia Simon, Bob Menendez, YouTube, Whitney for voice currently lacking in student media.
Governor, Eric Fogleman, the McHenry County Blog.
Inquiries, concerns and letters should be directed
The Center for American Progress has chosen to include Diskord in its Campus Progress towards Julie Fry (juliquah@gmail.com)
network of student publications at universities and colleges across the nation. Campus and Sam Boyd (samtsb@gmail.com)
Progress, an effort to strengthen progressive voices and counter the growing influence of
right-wing student groups, will provide Diskord with a grant of $3,000 for the 2006-2007 Published with support from the
academic year, opportunities to bring speakers and film screenings to campus, ties to other Center for American Progress/Campus Progress
publications at schools such as Harvard, the University of North Carolina, Dartmouth, and the www.campusprogress.org
University of Wisconsin.
For more information, visit www.campusprogress.org diskord.uchicago.edu
election preview 3

The Election Overview


by Sam Boyd
it could simply let the GOP collapse under its own attack ads against Democrats. Some of these are just
Waves, even political ones, are hard to
weight. silly. (One accuses a Democrat of calling a phone sex
see coming before they near shore. As election
Unlike last time, each blow the GOP takes hotline despite records showing that it was clearly
day approaches, many political forecasters are
makes the next all the more damaging. Once voters a wrong number and a similar number was called
predicting a major Democratic surge. What was idle
begin to think that House Speaker Dennis Hastert one minute later.) Others are fabricated. (One that
fantasy six months ago is now conventional wisdom.
has failed to ensure the safety of a few 16- year- accuses Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod
Political forecasting gurus Charlie Cook and Stuart
olds they start to wonder about how competent he
Rothenberg both predict that Democrats will retake
the House of Representatives. They may even pick
is to protect soldiers only a few years older in Iraq.
Negative perceptions of the party on one issue make
Things have become so bad for
up more than the 15 House seats needed to put them
in the majority. The Senate, too, is up for grabs.
voters more likely to accept negative interpretations the Republicans that the RNC is
of Republican policies, and the cycle continues until
Democrats are almost assured of 49 Senate seats and
voters have become thoroughly disillusioned. spending all but a small fraction of
another three are within reach.
How did we get here? Corruption and
In short, voters are fed up. Americans now its budget on negative attack ads
tell pollsters that they trust Democrats more than
scandal certainly played a part. Disgraced Republican
Republicans on every single issue, including the war against Democrats.
ex-Congressman Mark Foley helped alienate the
in Iraq, terrorism, and (for the first time in decades)
traditional values crowd and Jack Abramoff has
national security. Congress’ approval rating currently Brown of not paying his payroll taxes even though the
already sent several Republicans to prison. Abramoff
stands at 16 percent, two points lower than Dick State of Ohio says that he did. )
now spends so much time with FBI agents they’ve
Cheney’s and only three points higher than Mark Still other ads are simply vicious. In Tennessee,
given him his own desk. Low approval ratings for
Foley’s. When you stand somewhere between a child the RNC is airing a race-baiting ad featuring a white
the President also contributed, though his approval
molester and a man who shot his friend in the face, woman with no visible clothing who says she met
rating is twenty points higher than Congress’.
you know things are going badly. Democratic Senate candidate Harold Ford Jr., who is
Most importantly, the public is now definitively
Desperate Republicans have turned to the black, at a Playboy party. The ad ends with her winking
against the war in Iraq. Public opinion has turned so
issue that has won them the last two elections— at the camera and asking him to call her. Despite
precipitously against the administration’s war that
evil terrorists who want to kill you. Republicans denunciations from the NAACP, other Republicans
President Bush has taken to denying he ever used the
blast Democrats for opposing the PATRIOT and the Republican candidate running against
phrase “stay the course.” Republican candidates are
Act and complaining about detainee treatment in Ford, the RNC refuses to pull the ad. Similarly, in
desperately trying to distance themselves from both
Guantanamo. The Republican National Committee Massachusetts, black gubernatorial candidate Deval
the war and the President.
(RNC) is airing a campaign commercial that is Patrick has been hit with ads accusing him of praising
Other, less tangible factors have also
disturbingly similar to an Al-Qaeda recruitment a convicted rapist. He has denounced his opponent
contributed. With the exception of the last two
video—it features Osama bin Laden condemning for sending orange-clad protesters to his home and
midterm elections—which were dominated by 9/11
America and insurgents brandishing guns—complete the home of his campaign manager.
and the Lewinsky affair respectively—every midterm
with a ticking clock, a beating heart, and the message Across the country, Republicans are running
election since 1882 has resulted in a loss of at least
that “these are the stakes. Vote on November 7th.” ads claiming Democrats want to give Social Security
some seats in the house for the President’s party.
The commercial is beyond parody and the benefits to illegal immigrants. Immigration has proved
Moreover, newly combative opposition leaders like
“vote for us or terrorists will kill this puppy” approach to be less of an issue than many pundits expected, but
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
has worked in the last two elections. Democrats would it has nonetheless been used by many Republicans and
(DCCC) chief Rahm Emanuel have learned from the
be stupid to ignore it. Instead, they are hitting back is quite salient. On the other hand, Latino activists
drubbing their party took in 2004, when it thought
harder than ever. A group called VoteVets. have recently switched from organizing marches to
org has aired ads against Republican registering voters. Divisive Republican rhetoric on
incumbents who voted against funding for immigration may drive Latinos into the arms of the
improved body armor. The ads demonstrate Democrats, just as it did in California in the 1990s.
how AK-47 bullets go straight though the Democrats, for their part, have hit back
body armor that American soldiers were hard—though without any racist rhetoric. Michael
supplied with and how a newer vest stops J. Fox, who suffers from Parkinson’s Disease, has
those same bullets. Rep. Heather Wilson (R- starred in commercials for two Democratic Senate
NM) is the target of another ad that slams candidates. In both ads he shudders from the effects
her for “missing a vote on a timetable for of his disease and asks voters of each state to vote
withdrawal from Iraq to go to a fundraiser for the Democrats who support stem-cell research.
with George W. Bush.” Democrats also are attacking Republican incumbents
The White House has been reduced who voted against increasing the minimum wage
to once more claiming that it has a “new even while they voted for higher pay for themselves.
plan” for Iraq (this would be the tenth “new Democrats also continue to run ads linking Republican
plan” Bush has proposed, according to one incumbents to the President.
count). Meanwhile, endangered Republican Clearly, this is the most favorable election
Senator Conrad Burns has pulled a Nixon, cycle for a minority party since 1994. Pundits
claiming that Bush has a secret plan to win debate the similarities and differences endlessly, but
the war. Other Republican incumbents are several key resemblances are clear. The President is
trying desperately to shift the debate to the unpopular, scandals taint the incumbent party, and
economy or smear their opponents. voters wish to punish the president for an unpopular
Things have become so bad for the policy (Hillary’s universal healthcare plan in ’94 and
Republicans that the RNC is spending all Iraq in ‘06). In fact, Bush is less popular than Clinton
but a small fraction of its budget on negative was, and Iraq is much more powerful an issue than
4 election preview

healthcare. That said, Republicans are better prepared called “the prophet” by the Washington Post— respectively) faces a rather bland opponent and is
than Democrats were in ’94 and the last two round of puts likely Democratic gains at 25-30 seats. Stuart expected to win comfortably. Nonetheless each race
redistricting have favored the majority party. Rothenberg hedges, putting the number at 18-25 is within 10 points and could tighten before election
1994 was also the grand finale of a long but “quite possibly more.” Congressional Quarterly, day. Incumbency is powerful.
process of political transformation in the South. a Washington magazine, labels 25 seats as “no clear Maryland: Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin is
While Republicans won all over the country, favorite” or more favorable to the Democrats. The
Republicans gained the most in southern states. The
long transformation of conservative southerners
National Journal, another insider magazine, does not
make predictions but suggests that Democrats seem
Even more than in a typical
into Republican—a transformation that began with very likely to retake 15 seats and may, “if a sizable wave election, the outcome this November
Nixon’s southern strategy and put Reagan in the
White House—culminated in the 1994 election.
emerges,” take as many as 40 seats. Republicans hold
the first 38 seats that the Journal ranks as most likely
will depend on turnout.
A similar, if less dramatic, change may occur in to switch parties
2006. Northeastern moderate Republicans like The Iowa Electronic Market, which runs expected to pick up this seat vacated by Democrat
Rep. Christopher Shays of Connecticut and Sen. an online futures market where investors speculate Paul Sarbanes but Lieutenant Governor Michael
Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island are in serious danger. on political and financial questions and has a good Steele has made it an unusually tough contest. Steele,
According to the ultra-insider political magazine record predicting presidential races, puts the odds the most prominent African-American in the GOP,
The National Journal, eight of the 30 seats most of a Democratic takeover of the house at 66 percent. ran a series of fun and clever ads, but his positions are
likely to change hands are in Northeastern simply too conservative for most Maryland
states. Democrats also see opportunities in voters and he seems unlikely to close the
districts held by moderate Republicans that gap with Cardin.
went for Bush or Kerry by only by a few New Jersey: Governor John Corzine
points. was elected from the Senate a year ago and
Even more than in a typical election, appointed Rep. Bob Menendez to replace
the outcome this November will depend on him. Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr., son
turnout. Will evangelicals stay home out of popular former governor Tom Kean Sr.,
of disgust with Republican handling of the has run a cautious but tough campaign
Mark Foley issue? How well will the much- highlighting Menendez’s potentially
vaunted RNC turnout program known as corrupt dealings with a local politician in
the “72-hour plan” work in this cycle? These Trenton, NJ. Menendez looked like he was
are the questions that will determine if in serious danger at the end of September,
there really is a democratic wave. but he has rebounded and opened up a
Predicting elections is a notoriously respectable lead in the last weeks. Voters
tricky business, but the following are starting to question if Kean, who has
observations, taken from noted political only been in congress for a few years, has
forecasters and recent polls should give enough experience. They are also figuring
some idea of what the picture is as Diskord out that he is not the same person as his
goes to press, about 10 days before the famous father.
election: Tennessee: Here’s where things get
The House: interesting. This seat, vacated by Senate
For months now, Democrats have Majority Leader Bill Frist, was never seen
led in a generic congressional ballot—a poll that asks Perhaps the most interesting comment comes from as competitive. The Republicans even got their
if voters would prefer to vote for a Republican or Frank Luntz—easily the most well known Republican preferred candidate in the primary, moderate former
Democrat for Congress. Generic ballot polls of voters pollster and key figure in the 1994 election. “I’ve given Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker. However, Corker ran
in “competitive” seats taken in this election cycle up on 2006,” he says. Republicans have “already made a limp campaign and his opponent, Rep. Harold Ford
have favored Democrats as well. The Democrats’ so many mistakes, there’s no way they can fix it in two Jr., another prominent African-American candidate,
lead is larger than the Republicans advantage was weeks. But I’m worried now they’re going to lose all ran a remarkable and highly effective campaign
before the 1994 election. That said, the relationship the marbles.” highlighting his religious values and moderate stands
between generic ballot lead and actual seat gains has The Senate: on issues. At the beginning of October Ford had a small
been weak in recent years. Furthermore, the generic Democrats are not as likely to retake the lead, but Corker has counterattacked, highlighting
ballot tends to exaggerate Democratic chances for Senate, primarily because the Democratic minority the DC prep school Ford attended as a child and his
unknown reasons. Nonetheless, the national-level is proportionally smaller than it is in the House. But lack of experience outside politics. Reaction to the
data, imperfect though it may be, suggests that Senate races tend to be more vulnerable to national RNC’s racially suggestive ad may decide the race.
Democrats go into the home stretch of the race with trends than House races. Indeed, Democrats have Voters will either be swayed by it or disgusted.
a substantial lead. come much further than anyone expected. In the Virginia: George Allen was supposed to
As the campaign enters its final weeks, Senate, unlike in the House, polling is sophisticated cruise to reelection. But he found a tough opponent
polls show many Republican incumbents behind enough and races few enough that we can attempt a in former Secretary of the Navy Jim Webb and shot
or narrowly leading their Democratic challengers. state-by-state breakdown of the most competitive himself in the foot when he referred, on video, to
Unfortunately, in some cases, one poll will show races. The following races are competitive. They an Indian-American Webb campaign worker as
the challenger 15 points up, while in the next the are listed in reverse order of the likelihood of a “Macaca”—an ethnic slur used in Tunisia where
challenger will be 15 points down. Many theoretically Democratic victory. his mother is from, as well as among certain white-
competitive seats have not been polled independently Minnesota: What was supposed to be a supremacist groups. This, coupled with a long history
at all. However, most pollsters agree that what polling marquee race after Democratic Senator Mark Dayton of dubious racial incidents and a crooked stock deal,
there is seems consistent with national-level trends declined to run for a second term has turned into a has brought Webb within a few points of a lead.
favoring Democrats. snooze-fest as Rep. Amy Klobucher has buried her However, Allen is still flush with cash and his slump
Democrats currently need to gain 15 seats to opponent, GOP Rep. Mark Kennedy. seems to have stopped. This is going to be extremely
win the majority, but the question on many forecasters’ Washington, Michigan, and Arizona: In close no matter who wins.
minds is whether they will get the 20-30 they need each race, a somewhat dull and unpopular incumbent
to have a workable majority. Charlie Cook—recently (a Democrat, a Democrat, and a Republican, continued on page 7
election preview 5

The Impending Republican Implosion


by Will Bunnett
As we approach November 7th, things are
looking good for the Democrats. Most forecasters’
predictions are falling somewhere between a gain of
a couple of seats and a Democratic landslide. Hardly
anyone is attributing the favorable environment to
the positive actions of the Democrats, preferring to
blame the shift on errors and miscalculations made
by the Republicans. While the characterization of
Democrats as feckless is not entirely fair (it was
Democrats closing ranks that effectively killed Bush’s
privatization of Social Security, after all), the spotlight
is rightly placed on the Republicans.
After six catastrophic years of Republican
political dominance, the midterm elections are all
their actions while in power. However, it is wrong
to assume that the horrible Republican record is the
result of mistakes. In fact, there is compelling evidence
that Republican policies actually represent the perfect
embodiment of the conservative worldview.
Looking back over the last few years, we are
reminded of ways our country has been let down.
Republicans lied their way into Iraq, which they then
screwed up beyond belief. Republicans embarrassed
themselves trying to privatize Social Security.
Republicans were totally unable to even moderate
the horror of Hurricane Katrina. And most recently,
Republicans intentionally covered for a sexual
predator within their ranks in order to save a single
seat in Congress. This may seem like incompetence,
but really it makes perfect sense according to the
logic of conservatism.
The conceptual framework that is used to
make this case comes from George Lakoff. In his
book Moral Politics (and, more accessibly, in Don’t
Think of an Elephant), he outlines the deep cognitive
structures that form two archetypal political
worldviews. The liberal, “nurturant” view highly
values mutual responsibility, mutual care, growth as
individuals, respectfulness, inclusion, encouragement,
and so forth. The conservative, “strict” view highly
values hierarchy, moral order, obedience to authority,
discipline, strict paternalistic protection, and so to his authority because he knows how to protect his most significant prior experience was managing a
on. I found this framework quite valuable, insofar them best. He doesn’t need a ‘permission slip’ because horse racing charity.
he is the moral supervisor, the adult. By asserting his Foley Scandal: Once again we see the
Looking back over the last few authority Bush rejects the political dialogue that theme of “loyalty above all” emerge. Foley, it turns
years, we are reminded of ways might help a more open leader chart a better course.
Social Security: Part of the strict
out, was instrumental in pushing against the 2000
recount in Florida. Since one of the most important
our country has been let down. conservative family view is that you have to push conservative goals is preserving the moral hierarchy
children out of the nest, sink or swim. They need
This may seem like incompetence, to learn to discipline themselves by facing the
(which naturally puts Republicans above Democrats),
Republicans were compelled to do everything possible
but really it makes perfect harshness of the real world, instead of having the to preserve their majority – even if it meant covering
government act like a parent making investments for
sense according to the logic of their children – ironic, considering the generational
for a sex predator in their midst.
In each of these examples, Republicans were
conservatism. wealth that allows so many conservatives to practice in the wrong – all of the above were horrible things to
“compassionate conservatism” at a safe distance from do to the country – but these were hardly mistakes,
as it helped me understand how the apparent actual poverty or anything closely resembling it. unfortunate accidents, or the result of simple
contradictions in conservatism (think support of Hurricane Katrina: The “sink or swim” incompetence. To the contrary, they were the natural
the death penalty and opposition to abortion) were ethos got a particularly macabre chance to prove itself product of a radical ideology. Finally, Americans are
consistent within their own logical system. in the flood. The government doesn’t hold anyone’s waking up this realization and, as they do, they may
So, let’s take a second look at those issues I hand – people knew the risks of living there. Because very well turn the 2006 election into a moment of
mentioned: loyalty to superiors is highly coveted and rewarded, historic change. To modify Jimmy Hoffa’s famous
Iraq: Bush, the moral authoritarian at the Michael Brown (a loyal donor) was rewarded with quote, people may forgive some mistakes, but being
head of the hierarchy, forces everyone to be obedient the director’s chair at FEMA—despite the fact that wrong ain’t one of them. D
6 election preview

Convictions, Indictments, and Ineptitude


In Illinois, It’s Politics as Usual
by Matt Kennedy administration are starting to annoy normally talking about her experience with superimposed
corruption-numb Illinois voters. pictures of George Ryan and captions that read, “Not
Stakes are low, apathy is high, and things are Blagojevich’s Republican challenger, Judy the experience we need.” It is a difficult time to be a
getting ugly in the Illinois gubernatorial election. Barr-Topinka, has been state treasurer for a dozen Republican in Illinois, and Blagojevich is taking full
The “choice” between a scandal-ridden Democrat, years, and was chair of the Illinois Republican Party advantage of every opportunity to link Topinka with
an unlikable Republican, and an unknown Green from 2002 until the beginning of 2005. As a moderate, the most unpopular person in the state.
seems to have voters begging for a “none of the pro-choice Republican, it was her job to try to rebuild The current scandals implicating Blagojevich
above” option. While Democrat incumbent Rod a shattered republican party after a near Democratic in wrongdoing have failed to give Topinka much
Blagojevich is struggling to overcome accusations sweep of statewide offices. However, her efforts have traction in the polls. There are several reasons for this.
of unethical hiring practices and the indictment of a failed and she is having a very difficult time gaining any First, Topinka does not have anything close to the war
top fundraiser, Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar traction against the Governor, even with continual chest that Blagojevich draws from. Consequently, she
Topinka is fighting the image of a corrupt and broken reports of corruption. has been late in responding to Blagojevich’s barrage
Republican Party and her own unpopularity with The 2002 election was a crushing defeat for the of negative advertising. Since she started her own
a relatively small campaign fund. And Green Party Republican Party, removing almost every Republican negative ad campaign, she has raised Blagojevich’s
candidate Rich Whitney has no chance against a still- state-level officeholder their post, and pushing it to unfavorable rating, while hers remain unchanged.
powerful Democratic machine. the brink of bankruptcy as donors withheld funds Moreover, in a state that is increasingly numb
Blagojevich took back the State House in from the party. Topinka has struggled to rebuild the to corruption, she has failed to effectively articulate
2002 with a near clean sweep of state-level offices, organization but has suffered from several devastating attractive and exciting policies. Her most notable
ending twenty-six years of Republican rule in Illinois. scandals, starting with the 2004 Senatorial campaign plan is her budget reform, which calls for the sale
This victory was based in part on the promise that against Barack Obama. In that election, Topinka’s of a gaming license for a casino in Chicago, while
he would clean up state government after years of candidate Jack Ryan withdrew from the campaign in the Blagojevich campaign has said her cutbacks in
an increasingly corrupt Republican regime. These disgrace after admitting to having sex with his wife in healthcare spending will throw seniors out of nursing
promises have not been empty—Blagojevich has public sex clubs in Europe. homes and onto the street.
pushed through ethics reform legislation and has The circumstances surrounding Ryan’s On the other hand, Blagojevich has the
a long list of impressive progressive credentials. resignation and his subsequent replacement by Alan benefit of incumbency and a long list of real public
However, even with these reforms, his administration Keyes comprised some of the most damaging blows policy accomplishments on which to run. Blagojevich’s
has been tarnished by a constant barrage of scandals— the Illinois Republican Party has received, and it is campaign website, RodForIllinois.com, boasts that
ranging from a $1,500 check made out to his daughter against the backdrop of this history that Topinka 25,000 more children are eligible for preschool,
from the husband of a woman who received a state must run. Alan Keyes was chosen to run against 400,000 more people have healthcare, and $2.3
job after failing the state’s civil service exam, to a top Obama in an effort to appease the conservative billion more has been invested in education thanks to
fundraiser’s indictment in early October on charges Republican base. But Keyes quickly became an even his policies; 60,000 new jobs have been created in the
tantamount to massive extortion. greater embarrassment to the Party, saying that fellow past year, and 253,000 children now eligible for health
The indictment of Antoin “Tony” Rezko, African American Obama took the “slaveholder’s insurance. Blagojevich is a product of the Chicago
a prominent Democratic fundraiser may prove to position” on abortion, that Jesus wouldn’t vote for political machine—which is either asleep at the wheel
be one of the biggest hurdles Blagojevich will have Obama, and calling Dick Cheney’s lesbian daughter on ethics reform or knowingly breaking ethics rules.
to jump on his way to reelection. Blagojevich is not a “selfish hedonist” at the 2004 Republican National However, his achievements show that, as far as policy
implicated in the charges, but it is hard to believe Convention. The Chicago Tribune reported that is concerned, he is living up to his campaign slogan:
that he was completely unaware of the actions of his Topinka ducked behind a ficus plant to avoid talking “Getting things done for people.”
close advisor, who helped choose government leaders to Keyes at the Illinois Caucus at the Republican The Green Party candidate, Rich Whitney, is
during Blagojevich’s 2003 transition (including National Convention. polling around 10% on a good day, but he seems to
the director of the Department of Commerce and George Ryan, Blagojevich’s Republican be pulling votes away from Topinka as well as from
Economic Opportunity, Stuart Levine). Rezko is predecessor and Topinka’s former boss in the State Blagojevich. At this point, it seems improbable that
accused of demanding kickbacks for state business. House, is currently on his way to jail after being he would be able to make a significant splash, except
These charges have yet to be proven, and they stayed convicted this summer on corruption charges. maybe as a spoiler. He has virtually no campaign cash
on the front page for only one news cycle, but the Blagojevich has worked hard to exploit the situation and low name recognition. As sad as it is to say, there
implications of still more corruption in Blagojevich’s to his advantage, airing attack ads that show Topinka continued on page 8
election preview 7

Iraq Makes the 6th District a Hard Place for Republicans


by Mario Diaz-Perez The race has since garnered national attention and OVERVIEW, from page 4
both the DCCC and its Republican counterpart,
For over thirty years Rep. Henry Hyde (R-IL), the NRCC, have poured millions of dollars into the Missouri: Here we get to the likely
one of the most consistently conservative members district, although the Democrats are at a significant Democratic pickups. State Auditor Claire McCaskill
of the Illinois delegation, has represented the 6th financial disadvantage, with Republicans outspending is running neck and neck with incumbent Senator Jim
Congressional District of Illinois. Now that Hyde them 3 to 1. Talent. However, with both polling in the mid 40s, the
is retiring, this district In substance as well race is McCaskill’s to lose because undecided voters
in Chicago’s western as style the race in the usually break to the challenger and any incumbent
suburbs has become a 6th mirrors the national significantly short of 50 percent in most polls is in
microcosm of the 2006 contest. Duckworth danger.
midterm elections. supports the McCain- Montana: Democrats recaptured the
Republican State Senator Kennedy proposal to Governor’s mansion and the state legislature in
Peter Roskam faces Maj. grant guest worker status 2004 and now will almost certainly get rid of Senator
Tammy Duckworth, an to illegal immigrants, a Conrad Burns, who is the only Senator implicated in
attorney, veteran of the position supported by the Abramoff scandal. His opponent, Jim Tester, is
Iraq War, and double the President and some a populist farmer with a beer-gut and gravel-voiced
amputee. Republicans. Roskam authenticity.
Over the course has attacked her stance Rhode Island: Lincoln Chafee is easily the
of his career, Henry Hyde through direct mailings most liberal Republican in the Senate (or the House
fought against abortion and has falsely claimed for that matter), but he lags challenger Sheldon
rights and attacked the she supports amnesty Whitehouse in the polls. Whitehouse is as close to
United Nations. As for illegal immigrants. a generic Democrat as possible and given the current
Chairman of the House Duckworth hit back, climate and the extremely Democrat-friendly makeup
Judiciary Committee, accusing Roskam of his state, he has held his lead by repeatedly pointing
he led the impeachment of supporting the out that a vote for Chafee is a vote for the Republican
proceedings against privatization of Social party.
President Bill Clinton. Security and voting too Ohio: The Ohio Republican Party achieved
Until the 2004 elections, closely with President near total political dominance in the ‘90s then
Rep. Hyde was Bush and the recently proceeded to near total corruption. The result?
consistently re-elected disgraced House Speaker, Liberal Democrat Sherrod Brown looks likely to
with over 60% of the Dennis Hastert (R-IL). demolish incumbent Senator Mike DeWine.
vote, but in 2004 shifting Iraq, however, Pennsylvania: Rick Santorum is finished. He
demographics including may prove the defining trails in the poll by double digits and his comments—
an enlarged minority issue of this campaign comparing Al-Qaeda to Sauron and the war in Iraq to
population contributed and this election year the attack on the Black Gate of Mordor—have been
to a record 44% vote and it is on this issue justifiably mocked both for their lack of seriousness
for Hyde’s Democratic that Duckworth is at and for their complete incoherence as a metaphor
opponent.After surviving her most eloquent and (as Stephen Colbert pointed out, Santorum’s analogy
his toughest challenge most effective. This suggests that America is Mount Doom or possibly
yet, the 82-year-old past Sunday she gave the Mordor).
incumbent decided to Democratic response to Governorships:
retire, endorsing Roskam the President’s weekly The picture here is much murkier. Most
as his replacement. radio address and forecasters predict Democrats will retake about 6
W h i l e attacked the President governorships, but there are also a few endangered
Roskam has the support of a powerful incumbent, on the war: “I proudly fought and sacrificed, my Democrats. The implications of the national mood
Duckworth’s record is impressive—she was awarded helicopter was shot down long after you proclaimed are also harder to predict. Democrats have wide
several medals including the Army Commendation ‘mission accomplished.’” leads in New York, Colorado, Ohio, Massachusetts,
Medal and the Purple Heart after she lost her legs in The Duckworth campaign is using and Arkansas (all currently held by Republicans), but
a helicopter crash near Baghdad. Duckworth, who is advertisements, direct mailings, and, most beyond that, things are more complicated. In Maryland
now completely mobile with the assistance of modern importantly, a very well organized grassroots door and Minnesota Republicans look endangered, but no
prosthetics, became a national activist for veteran’s knocking campaign to get out the vote and convince clear favorite has emerged. Meanwhile, Democrats
healthcare. It was this activism that brought her people to go to the polls—a crucial task in a midterm could also lose Oregon or Michigan, though the latter
into contact with Rep. Rahm Emmanuel (D-IL), the election when turnout is normally lower than in is less likely. Finally, Florida, which was supposed to
powerful Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Presidential election years. Part of her strategy has also be solidly in GOP hands, may have suddenly become
Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the man who involved recruiting several hundred field volunteers, competitive if a recent poll is to be believed. This is
personally recruited her as a candidate for the race. especially college students (including the UC Dems) still a long shot for Democrats and it only adds to the
Duckworth, backed by the national party, to go door knocking and canvassing in various parts confusion.
went on to win a contested primary against the more of the district. Democrats also have some chance of retaking
liberal Christine Cegelis who had challenged Hyde in Even with polls showing Democratic a handful of state legislatures. Together with the
2004. When the general election began, Duckworth candidates getting a slight bounce just three weeks governors’ race trends, this suggests that Democrats
was down by several points in polls despite her into the election, the race in the 6th is still a dead will have stronger state-level support going into
moderate stance and impressive personal story. heat and will likely remain tight until Election Day. the 2008 elections and the 2010 redistricting cycle.
Yet with the help of the DCCC and a revitalized If the 6th does swing blue it will serve as a bellwether It also suggests that Democrats will have a better
local Democratic party Duckworth closed the gap for a larger Democratic wave. Perhaps in a few years, “farm system” in the future, creating more powerful
and since Labor Day the race has been a dead heat. we’ll say, “as the 6th goes, so goes the country.” D candidates and thus more electoral success. D
8 election preview

Getting Dirty in New Jersey


by James Kraft ILLINOIS, from page 6

The New Jersey Senate is no viable third party in Illinois.


race is shaping up to be one of Until a third party starts
the nastier examples of negative polling in the upper twenties or low
campaigning in recent memory. thirties, it seems like the best chance
Robert Menendez, the Democratic for a progressive leader is in the
incumbent, was appointed by former Democratic candidate. Real pushes for
senator Jon Corzine after he was progressive values in the Democratic
elected Governor in late 2005. Tom Party should take place in the party
Kean Jr., his Republican challenger, primary, where a progressive, reform
has made much of a taped phone candidate can best shake up the old
exchange between a lawyer working establishment. A vote for Whitney
for Menendez and a north Jersey might send a small message, but is
family services charity, which he a poor way to advance progressive
has characterized as an attempt at values until the structure of the
political strong-arming. political system is more hospitable to
Menendez, a long-time north a third party.
Jersey pol who gained his street- The latest poll by the Chicago
cred by taking down the Union City Tribune (taken before the indictment
machine back in the ‘80s, is a pretty which are now under scrutiny. Menendez, however of Tony Rezko) has Blagojevich leading
easy target for corruption allegations. He was, after all, has been neither indicted nor subpoenaed to testify, Topinka and Whitney 43-29-9 respectively with 19
the representative of New Jersey’s 13th Congressional as he has repeatedly made clear. It is unusual for such percent undecided. Neither major party candidate
district—perhaps the most crooked in the country— investigations to be made public in a campaign season, can boast about their popularity—Blagojevich’s
for more than a decade. Besides Senator Menendez, let alone within 90 days of the actual date of the favorable/unfavorable rating is 35/43 and Topinka’s
the most notable product of Union City in recent election, though Christie has vociferously maintained 25/49. Asked whether they were satisfied with their
decades is the violent Latin rap music genre Reguetón, there are no political motivations to the inquiry. The choice for governor, 51% of voters said they were
which traces some of its roots to Panama and Puerto Kean campaign has pounced on the issue, using it as dissatisfied with their choices. Politics in Illinois has
Rico through it. This is Tony Soprano territory; rust- grounds for a more general accusation of corruption. reached a very sad state indeed.
bound factory districts, crooked shipyards, strip malls One recent radio ad features a taped recording of All in all, apathy among voters could depress
and split-level condominiums remain its dominant Menendez’s lawyer threatening an employee of voter turnout and make this a very interesting
characteristics. It’s not particularly surprising that another agency, partly substantiating this claim. November 7th. The stakes do not seem to be high
a politician from such a corrupt district would end The Menendez campaign has been built primarily because Topinka is a reasonably moderate Republican
up with some kind of an ethics violation; what’s around the issue of President Bush’s policies and other uninterested in pushing a radical social agenda.
surprising is that he could remain ethical enough to national issues like port security and the extension While Topinka’s policy initiatives will certainly be a
be tenable as a candidate at all. of federal health insurance programs. He also has step in the wrong direction for Illinois, a Topinka win
Tom Kean, Jr., on the other hand, has the been endorsed by all of the state’s major unions, an might just teach Illinois Democrats that they need
precise white-bread political clean-slate from which important base for New Jersey’s many industrial to get their ship in order before they can truly affect
to launch a negative campaign. His brief state Senate districts. His response to the corruption claims, change.
career has been bland and uneventful enough that most however, has been rather weak. The Democratic As long as Illinois voters don’t have
New Jerseyans think of him in terms of the political Party, from its slow response, appears to have a legitimate candidate capable of cleaning up
franchise he represents; his father, Tom Kean, Sr. was been surprised by the highly local character of the Springfield, Blagojevich might be the best choice.
one of the most popular governors in American history campaign—though Chuck Schumer’s objections to He offers real accomplishments and progressive
(he won his re-election bid in 1985 with a record- Menendez’s appointment in 2004 now seem to have values. Another plus is that if he has to resign in
shattering 71% of the vote). The younger Kean is quite been justified. shame, progressive, populist Lieutenant Governor
adept at using this political mantle to his advantage. Ethical issues have figured prominently in Pat Quinn would take the helm. Pat Quinn has long
In a recent televised debate where Menendez accused recent polls. Kean pulled ahead by a few percentage been popular among liberal Democrats for his efforts
him of “shak[ing] down” the United Health Group, points in September, but in recent polling Menendez in the 1980s to found the Citizen’s Utility Board
Kean responded by characterizing the accusation as has closed the gap to a virtually negligible margin. (which fights big energy companies on behalf of
an attack on his father (who sits on the board of the Voters appear to have temporarily split on the ratepayers) and his initiative to shrink the size of the
UHG), and asking, “How in the world would I shake corruption issue back in September, with 39% willing state assembly in half, reducing inefficiency in state
somebody down, Bob? That is absurd.” Indeed, given to call Menendez “honest and trustworthy,” 29% sure government. Bumper Stickers saying “Blago indicted
the backdrop of the highly respectable Kean family, that they wouldn’t, and a significant 32% not sure. ’06, Quinn Governor ‘07” have started popping up
it would seem absurd for any New Jersey native Now they are split 38% to 39% on the issue, with only around Springfield. Sadly, this may be the best Illinois
to picture Tom Jr. shaking anyone down, whereas 24% unsure. Menendez has more money behind him, politics has to offer. D
it would require very little imagination to picture $5.5 million to Kean’s $3.17 million for the remainder
Menendez in such a role. of the campaign, but Kean’s use of his war chest
The facts of the case are murkier. Apparently,
senator Menendez has been renting a large building
has been more effective thus far. Menendez’s union
endorsements may help him especially in Atlantic Write for Diskord!
in Union City to a local charity since the beginning City and the industrial north, where the 18,000 votes We are always looking for submissions.
of his Congressional career in 1992. Meanwhile, he’s of several casino and hotel unions and the 25,000
been helping them get a hold of federal funding. votes of nurses and home health care employees Please contact Sam Boyd at
The aggressively Republican state prosecutor, U.S. should give him a boost. The New Jersey race appears samtsb@gmail.com or Julie Fry at juli-
Attorney Christopher Christie, has subpoenaed the to be headed down to the wire, and will likely heat up quah@gmail.com.
charity for its financial records, before it calms down. D

You might also like