From Farm to Table to Farm:

Issues in Food and Nutrition Security

Professor Paul PS Teng
Senior Fellow (Food Security)
S Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Centre for non-Traditional Security Studies;
Principal Officer
National Institute of Education
and
Senior Fellow, SEARCA
12 October 2015
Alabang

SCOPE OF PRESENTATION
1.The scope of food security
2. Key issues affecting the four
dimensions of food security
3. Responding to the challenges

Food security
What is food security?
Food Security is a complex situation
.. F.A.O. SOFI. 2013

FOOD SECURITY
exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social
and economic access
to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their
dietary needs and food preferences for an active and
healthy life.
----- (Food and Agriculture Organization, U.N.)

Food Security has mul2ple dimensions

Four Dimensions of Food Security

Many influencing factors

Food Availability
Produc2on
Imports
Stockpiles

Change in thinking about

Food Security:
From 1 dimension to many
Food Access (Physical)
dimension
Access to markets
Logis2cs & Infrastructure From 1 sector (agriculture) to
Trade (Supply chains)
many sectors
(Economic) From supply side to demand
Food Access
side influences
Safety nets
Food pricing
From rural concerns to more
Foreign Direct Investment urban concerns
Employment
From Self-sufficiency to SelfReliance (only partly
Food U2liza2on
Health and nutri2on
sufficient)
Sanita2on/Hygiene
Storage/processing facili2es
Food safety

Asian Development Bank, Food Security in Asia and the Pacific, Asian
Development Bank, Manila, 2013

Asia and the Pacifics drive for food security has

focused too narrowly on quantity, with a surge in
obesity and still high levels of malnutrition in
some countries highlighting the need for a new
approach
Asian Development Bank, Food Security in Asia and the Pacific, Asian
Development Bank, Manila, 2013

Producing enough food is only one part of the equation to

achieve food security

Many Challenges to Food Security

Acute, immediate threats

Severe Weather disruptions

Natural calamities
Pest & Disease outbreaks
Rising energy prices
Competition from energy sector
Sudden Policy changes e.g. trade
Lower holdings of cereal stocks
(Hoarding)
Diversion from staple to cash
crops
Conflict/Terrorist activities
Economic factors
Price hikes
Food safety/contamination
Alternative Uses of Biomass
Human health crises (e.g. SARS)
Local, National

Chronic , longer-term threats

Climate change
Demographic changes
Poverty
Underinvestment in
infrastructure/technology
Degradation of land and
water resources for
agriculture
Unfriendly policies
towards farmers
Declining no. of farmers

National, Regional

Issues on Food Availability

Supply side issues
Demographics: declining & ageing farmer population
Declining performance of agriculture
Environmental degradation (loss of land and water
resources)
Climate change
Food/feed diversion to other uses

Demand side issues

Demographics: Population growth, urbanization,
increased income
Diet changes (more diverse and high protein food)

ASEAN Agriculture
Country

Brunei

Agriculture labour, % of
total labour force, 2010

Agriculture, % Agriculture, %
of GDP
of GDP
1990
2010

0.98

0.76

Cambodia

72.3

50.12

36.02

Indonesia

38.3

17.55

15.34

Lao PDR

72.2

45.06

29.72

Malaysia

13.6

14.89

10.49

Myanmar

57.26

36.36

Philippines

33.2

19.14

12.31

Singapore

0.1

0.34

0.03

Thailand

38.2

10.01

10.86

Vietnam

49.5

38.74

20.58

Source: ADB Key Indicators 2013; UNCTAD Stat 2013

Global aggregate yield growth of grains

and oilseeds
1970-1990
1990-2007
2007-2017

2 % p.a.
1.1 % p.a.
<1% p.a.

Yield growth of maize, rice and

wheat in Asia has either
modestly increased or been
on the decline.

Growth in crop yield, %

6

Maize
Rice, paddy
Wheat

0
1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

Source: FAO 2011

Environmental degradation

ASIA
c 60% of worlds population
34 per cent of the worlds arable land
36 per cent of the worlds water resources
Stress Factors on the natural resource base
Soil
Declining arable land area (Degradation (Erosion,
Salinization, etc.)
Water
Declining fresh water resources (Pollution by industrial
and agricultural effluents)

With Climate Change by 2050

Yield
Rice 14-26%
Wheat 32 44%
Maize 2-5%
Soybean 18%

Price
Rice 29-37%
Wheat 81-102%
Maize 58-97%
Soybean 14-49%

Source: V. Anbumozhi, ADBI. 2012

Countering Climate Extremes Key to Asia's Food Future

Asia and the Pacific faces a food 'storm' in the coming
decades unless it takes decisive steps to respond to a
host of pressures on its food supplies - including from
climate change.
"This will require a combination of conserving and managing existing
resources more effectively, tapping science to grow food from less
land, and drawing in investment to meet growing food demand," said
Mahfuz Ahmed, Asian Development Bank (ADB) Technical Adviser for Rural
Development and Food Security.
Asian Development Bank
5 Oct 2015

World Population, 1961 to 2050 (Urban vs Rural)

10
9
Urban

9 Billion by 2050

At present, 50% of the

worlds population lives in
cities 2008 was
turning point

By 2050, 70% will be

urban (mostly in
developing countries)

Asia by 2050 will be >54%

urban

Rural

7
6
5
4
3
2

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

Population (Billions)

Year

MORE FOOD
LESS LAND, LESS WATER, LESS LABOR
LESS PREDICTABLE WEATHER

Growth (> 60% since 2000) in ASEAN Middle Class fuels

growth for more protein!
60

50

Percent

40

30

20

10

0
1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2010

Reference Year

Poor (<1.25)

Middle Class (3<x<12)

Middle Class (4<x<30)

Source: PovcalNet: the on-line tool for poverty measurement

developed by the Development Research Group of the World Bank
(http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm?0)

The demand for protein food by the middle class living

in cities is putting tremendous pressure on land and
water resources

In China,
> 1300%
increase in
meat
consumption
since the
1960s, and
still rising!

The Economist 18 January 2014

Estimated water requirements (litres) to

produce protein foods, feed and staples
Hoekstra
& Hung
(2003)

Chapagain
& Hoekstra
(2003)

Zimmer
& Renault
(2003)

Oki
et al.
(2003)

Beef

15977

13500

20700

Pork

5906

4600

5900

Poultry

2828

4100

4500

Eggs

4657

2700

3200

Rice

2656

1400

3600

Soybeans

2300

2750

2500

Wheat

1150

1160

2000

Maize

450

710

1900

Potatoes

160

105

Average
16726
5469
3809
3519
2552
2517
1437
1020
133

Issues on Food Access

Physical
Modern supply chains (inclusiveness)
Capacity for distributing food
Capacity for food trade

Economic
Affordability (food price spikes)
Safety nets

The Food Supply Chain that guarantees food

and nutrition security
Input
supplies

Farming &
Food
Production

Processing

& Post
Harvest

Marketing
& Sales

Distribution
, Wholesale

& Retail

FARM

Consumer

TABLE
Concerns about sustainable food production
Concerns about food quality (GAP)
Concerns about food safety

In Asia,
National food security depends on
regional and global food security

Rapid transformation of supply chains

Impact: Lower food prices for urban consumers BUT
lower market participation among poorer small farmers
Emergence of supermarkets and large wholesalers/processors
in the last two decades
Rapid transformation of wholesale, logistics, processing, food
retail fastest in the world, in history
Based mainly on massive investments by private sector
(domestic and foreign)
Higher quality and safety standards
50-57% of food cost from post farmgate expenses in supply
chain (Thomas Reardon, 2011)

Key issue: inclusive agribusiness

Ensuring smallholders play their role

Issues on Food Utilization

A. Nutrition (security)
A. Linkage to poverty
B. Food quality
C. Malnutrition

B. Food Safety
C. Food Loss and Waste

A. Nutrition Security: Annual income spent on food and

malnutrition rate

Courtesy: GAIN. 2015.

How households cope with food insecurity

use of child
labour. Begin to
borrow,
purchase on
credit ->
indebted.
Reduced expenditure
on non-essential or
luxury items.
Beginning to sell
non-productive /
disposable assets

Selling of
productive
assets

expenditures
on essential
items (e.g.
food, water etc)

Livelihood

Engage in illegal
& healththreatening
activities as last
resort coping

Deterioration of household food security

Change to
cheaper, lowerquality and
less-preferred
foods

Food-related
Consume wild foods/immature
crops/seeds. Send HH members
elsewhere to eat (e.g.
neighbours)

size OR number
of meals

Courtesy: GAIN. 2015.

Begging for
food

Skip entire
days
without
eating

Eat items not

eaten in the
past/not part of
normal diet
(e.g. plants,
insects etc.)

Source: Asian Development Bank (2013). Food Security in Asia and the Pacific

Key message
In SE Asia, child
underweight bigger
issue than
undernourishment
Need to improve
dietary quality,
particularly for poorer
population groups
Education (rainbow
diet)
Safety nets
Home gardens
To download the report: http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4646e.pdf

B. Food Safety Issues

Raw food ingredients quality and
contaminant free
Handling quality and safety from
contamination
Processing techniques and technologies
Packaging techniques and technologies
Distribution and Retail (Shelf life)
Considerations: Cost, Utility, Acceptance

Worldwide food safety concerns

spread of microbiological hazards (including
major foodborne pathogens),
chemical food contaminants,
assessments of new food technologies (using
genetically modified organisms, GMO,
innovation technologies) and
strong food safety systems in most countries to
ensure a safe food-chain on global scale.
WHO WHO, 10 facts on food safety. Available at
http://www.who.int/features/factfiles/food_safety/en/
(Accessed: 05.11.2014). World Health Organization, 2009.

C. Food Loss
& Waste

FAO. 2011.
Global food losses and
Food waste Extent,
causes and prevention.
Rome.

Developed countries: Low Loss, High Waste

Developing countries: High Loss, Low Waste

A Study of Consumer Waste

Waste & Resources Action Program (WRAP),

2009 U.K. Study
4.2 M tons of avoidable waste,
1.2 Million tons of possible avoidable waste,
1.6 Million tons of Unavoidable waste

Downloadable from: www.rsis.edu.sg/nts.

Five Recommendations for Southeast Asian

policymakers
Increase government support for research projects to
quantify food wastage to provide a basis for
policymaking.
Incentivise the development and use of improved food
storage, transport and packaging in traditional supply
chains.
Enhance government partnerships with agricultural
development stakeholders to assist smallholder
farmers and encourage sharing of best practices.
Modify policies to reduce and prevent retail and
consumer food wastage in urban environments.
Enhance government support for innovative means of
using food that is wasted in urban environments.

How food secure is a specific

country?
Summative assessment (EIU Global Food
Security Index)
Formative assessment (Rice Bowl Index)

Index 1: Economist Intelligence Unit, Global Food

Security

Objective is to measure which countries are

May 2015 most and least vulnerable to food insecurity.
2014

Country

Rank GFSI Score

Country

Rank GFSI Score

USA

89.3

Indonesia

74

46.7

New Zealand 13

82.8

India

68

50.9

Australia

83.8

Myanmar

78

44.0

Singapore

88.2

Pakistan

77

45.7

Japan

21

77.4

Bangladesh

89

37.4

S. Korea

24

74.8

Nepal

85

40.5

Malaysia

34

69.0

Cambodia

96

34.6

China

42

64.2

Thailand

52

62.0

Sri Lanka

63

53.7

Canada

84.1

Vietnam

65

53.4

Brazil

36

67.4

Philippines

72

49.4

Argentina

37

67.1

Congo (DR)

105

30.1

Index 1
DUPONT-Economist Intelligence Unit,
Global Food Security Index
Objec've is to measure which countries are most and least vulnerable to
food insecurity.
Affordability
Food consumption as % of household expenditure
% population under poverty line
GDP per capita @PPP
Agriculture import tariffs
Food safety net programmes
Access to financing for farmers
Availability
Sufficiency of supply
Public expenditure on agricultural R&D
Agricultural infrastructure
Volatility of agricultural production
Political stability risk
Corruption
Urban absorption capacity
Food loss

Quality & Safety

Diet diversification
Nutritional standards
Micronutrient availability
Protein quality
Food safety

Index 2: RICE BOWL INDEX (Full Year Update 2012-2013)

Countries with relatively high Robustness (Score >50): Australia, Japan,
New Zealand, Taiwan

The Rice Bowl Index: Food Security

Robustness
Translating the data into action to address food security
Farm-level Factors

8
Do the farmers have the capability and means to be weighted
factors
productive?

Policy and Trade

Does the trade and policy environment encourage
open markets, investment and innovation?

Environmental Factors
Will the environmental capacity in the country
provide for long-term agricultural productivity and
sustainability?

Demand and Price

How will the food security needs in the country evolve?
Quantity, affordability, access?
(Courtesy: SYNGENTA)

7
weighted
factors

4
weighted
factors
9
weighted
factors

RBI 2014-15 Findings

Composite Index

New Zealand
Myanmar

80
70

Japan

60

Bangladesh

Australia

50
40

30

Pakistan

South Korea

20
10
0

Philippines

Taiwan

India

Malaysia

Indonesia
The last country above the
threshold is Vietnam and the first
to fall below is Indonesia

China

Vietnam

Thailand

Legend
RBI Score
Threshold

In summary: To assure food security..

Need to address all four dimensions

Food
Availability

Increase
agricultural
productivity
using new
technologies
Reduce losses
Encourage
sustainable
intl trade
Supportive
agricultural
policies

Physical
Access
To food

Improve
transport
logistics and
infrastructure
Link farmers
to markets
Reduce loss
Urban farming

Economic
Access
To
food

Keep food prices

low and stable
Social programs,
safety nets
Increase
entrepreneurial
skills of farmers
Non-farm
employment

Food
Utilization

Nutrition
security
Food safety:
Improve infrastructure/
hygiene
Reduce waste
Biofortification,
dietary supplements, education

Crop yield levels -- Concepts

Theoretical
Yield

Need to raise
yield levels in
both food
surplus and
food deficit
countries
RBI: Farm level
yield are
important
contributor to
food security

Potential
Yield

Water &
Nutrient- limited
Yield

Actual Yield

Genetically modified factors?

Defining factors
CO2
Radiation
Temperature
Crop features
Limiting factors
Water
Nutrients

Reducing factors (Loss)

Biotics
Weeds
Insect pests
Diseases
Abiotics

Derived from production ecology of C.T. de Wit, Wageningen, Netherlands

Biotechnology crop varieties

Average crop yields 2013, t/ha

Country

Food status

Maize

Soybeans

U.S.A.

Exporter

9.97

2.9

Canada

Exporter

8.9

2.9

Argentina Exporter

6.6

2.5

China

6.1

1.9

Importer

Sources: FAO Statistics; USDA FAS

Farmers Record Yields

Corn
22.3 t/ha (Rainfed) Chile
26.8 t/ha (Irrigated) Chile
Soybean
10.8 t/ha
MO, USA
Wheat
15.5 t/ha
NZ
Rice
18.0 t/ha
China
From: Fisher, Edmeades & Byerlee, 2013

Technological farming
AGROTECHNOLOGY PARKS
Investments in aeroponics
(AeroGreen Farm)
Investments in vertical farming
(SKYGREEN Pte Ltd)

AEROGREEN
Aeroponics

LED light for

Indoor farming

SKYGREEN Vertical stacked rotating trays. Source: ChannelNews Asia

Green food: Tech startups are

moving into the food business to
make sustainable versions of
meat and dairy products from
plants

Impossible Foods, Redwood

City, CA. $75M
Plant-based meat and cheese
imitations
Hamburger patty that bleeds
Chicken strips with same
texture
US beef industry - $88 Billion
Mayonnaise - $2 Billion

Haem (animals) = Heme (plants)

Source: The Economist,

March 7 2015

Thank you - - Terima Kasih " - Maraming

selamat - Merci - Gracias -
- Thank you

Ispaul.teng@ntu.edu.sg;
paul.teng@nie.edu.sg