Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2001 4
V o l. 37 N o. 4
Apr. 2001
( )
( , 200437)
: O 211. 9; O 241. 1: E : 1001-4012( 2001) 04-0178-05
,
, ;
,
,
,
:
,
, ,
,
,
, ,
,
2. 1
,
( ) ,
, ,
,
, ,
? ,
,
178
( ,es ,eb , K IC )
? :
,
:
( 1)
,
F ( X x ) = F (x ) =
x
1
- (x - _ )2
ex
p
[
]dx
2e2
2e -
( 3-9)
, F ( X x ) x X
, - ,
x , , F ( x ) x
t
t = ( x - _ ) /e
( 3-10)
2
t
1
F ( x ) = H( t ) =
ex p [ - t ]dt
2
2 -
( 3-11)
, 1,
H( t ) t F ( x ) x
H( t ) t
? H( t ) t ,
t , t= ( x - _ ) /e x ,
x , x t ,
x -t , x
( 3-9) ( 3-11)
, ,
, ,
, ; ,
, ,
: ( )
3-1b
( 2)
,
? x 1 x 2 ,
x n , ,
?
, ,:
, ,
( ) ,
x 1 x 2 xi xn
( 3-12)
x i
, m
, n (
) , , x i
,
xi (eb / N m m- 2 )
650
0. 091
0. 0673
670
0. 1818
0. 1635
705
0. 2727
0. 2596
723
0. 3636
0. 3558
750
0. 440
0. 4519
756
0. 528
0. 5481
778
0. 616
0. 6642
791
0. 704
0. 7404
800
0. 792
0. 8365
10
805
0. 880
0. 9327
, ( ) E
i
( x n ) ( 50% ) x i
i
E ( x in ) =
( 3-13)
n+ 1
i - 0. 3
x i = n + 0. 4
( 3-14)
E
i
x n n i
x i 50%
, ,
x i , x 2 , x i x n ,
, ,
(eb ) 3-1 ( 3-13)
( 3-14) i
, 3-1 ,
, ,
i
3-1 , x i - E ( x n ) x i - x i
, 3-2
( 3)
,
, eb
2. 2
,
,
, ,
_ e
3-2
( 1) _ : F ( x ) =
50% , ,
, ,
, _ _
( 2) e: F ( x ) = 84. 1% ,
,
, x 84. 1 ,
x = _+ e
e= x 84. 1 - _
( 3-15)
, F ( x ) =
15. 9% , ,
x 15. 9 ,
e= _ - x 15. 9
( 3-16)
,
,: 100 ,
3-2 ,
: ( 1)
179
: ( )
R(% )
5. 50
1. 02
98. 98
5. 55
6. 12
93. 88
5. 60
12. 24
87. 76
5. 65
25. 54
74. 46
5. 70
46. 94
53. 06
5. 75
65. 34
34. 66
5. 80
85. 74
14. 26
5. 85
91. 86
8. 14
5. 90
94. 92
5. 08
5. 95
99. 0
1. 0
6. 00
100
;
( 2) ,
_ e;
( 3) R= 95% ,
: ( 1) ( )
, AB , 3-3
,
x AB , x
, x 15. 9 = 5. 615,: x 15. 9= _ - e,
e= _ - x 15. 9 = 5. 715 - 5. 615= 0. 100
, e 0. 100
( 3)
R= 95% , F= 1- R= 0. 05,
_ = - 1. 65,
x 95 = _ - 1. 65e= 5. 715 - 1. 65 0. 100= 5. 550
N 95 = lg- 1 x 95 = lg- 1 5. 550 = 3. 165 105
, 95%
3. 165 105 h
2. 3
,
,
2. 3. 1
, r
= 0,
-
tm
F ( t ) = 1 - e t0
,
m
l n( 1 - F ) = - t /t 0
1
tm
=
(1- F)
t0
ln
lnln
3-3
( 2) _ e
, _ e _
: F= 50%
AB , x 5. 715 ,
_ = 5. 715
e: F = 84. 1%
AB , x x
5. 815 , x 84. 1 = 5. 815, x = _ + e,
e= x 84. 1 - _ = 5. 815 - 5. 715 = 0. 100
, F= 15. 9% ,
180
1
= m l nt - lnt0
(1- F)
( 3-17)
1 = , = ,
lnl n
( 1- F ) Y lnt X
Y = AX + B
( 3-18)
X -Y , A= m , B=
- lnt0 , ( 3-4 ) ,
: X , Y
,
t , X t= ex , t
ln , F ,
Y ,: F ( t ) = 1- ex p [ - Y
e ] , , Y F
, F , F lnln
, 3-4
: X -Y F-t , ,
: ( )
,:
) , m Y B
, m = - B
( 4) 3-4 , t 0. 1 100,
t , 100h
,
,
,
,
2. 3. 2
3-4
( 1)
1
Y = l nln
(1 - F)
- Y
F = 1 - ex p [- e ]
, 3-3
( 2)
X = lnt
:
( 1) ( )
t 1 t2 ti tn
( 2) ti
Fn ( ti ) ,
Fn ( ti ) = ( i - 0. 5) /n
( 3-20)
Fn ( ti ) = i / (n + 1)
Fn ( ti ) = ( i - 0. 3) /( n + 0. 4)
( 3-21)
( 3-22)
i - ( 3 / 8)
Fn ( ti ) = n+ ( 1 / 4)
( 3-23)
t= e
,
,
, X = lgt t = 10X
, , ( )
1
Y , Y = lnln
,
( 1- F )
( 3-17)
1
lnln ( 1 - F ) = m lnt - lnt0 =
2. 303m lgt - 2. 303lgt0
( 3-19)
m , ( 3-19) m
1
2. 303= tg, m =
,
2. 303t g
( 3) 3-4 , m
, ( X , Y ) = ( 1, 0) ,
( 3-18) , Y = AX + B , X = 1, Y = 0 , A =
- B = m , ,
( r= 0,
[ ti , Fn ( ti ) ] [ t1 , Fn ( t1 ) ] , [ t2 ,
Fn ( t2 ) ] , [t 3 , Fn ( t3 ) ] , [tn , Fn ( tn ) ]
, n ,
r ,:
( a) r= 0 n
, F ( t ) = 0. 5 0. 6
, ,
, ,
m t 0
( b ) r> 0 n
,
t , t r
r n r ,
t
i = ti - r , [ t
1 , Fn ( t1 ) ], [ t
2 , Fn ( t2 ) ] [t
n,
Fn ( tn ) ] ,
,
m t0
3-3F Y
F 100%
Y= lnln
1
( 1- F )
90
80
63. 2
40
30
20
0. 1
0. 01
+ 0. 832
+ 0. 474
- 0. 670
- 1. 029
- 1. 50
- 6. 899
- 9. 210
181
: ( )
( c) r < 0 n
,
,
, t
, r r , n
r t
i = ti - r , [ t
1 , Fn ( t1 ) ] , [ t
2,
n
(
2
)
]
,
[
n
,
n
(
n
)
]
F t
t F t
, ,
m t0
,: 100
3-4
3-4
142
1. 20
158
18
72. 41
146
5. 18
162
13
87. 85
150
20
17. 63
166
96. 81
154
36
45. 52
:
: ( 3-22) , Fn ( ti )
= ( i - 0. 3) /( n+ 0. 4) , n= 100, i ,
, 142N , 3 /2 ;
146N , 5 /2+ 3= 5. 5
, ,
( 1. 5 - 0. 3) /( 100+ 0. 4) = 1. 20%
( 5. 5 - 0. 3) /( 100+ 0. 4) = 5. 18%
3-4
, ,
r= 0,
m t 0 ,
m = 29, t0= 157( N )
2. 4
, ,
,
, ,
, ,
r= 0; ,
, ,
r , ti
i = ti - r Fn ( ti ) ,
r , t
182
, ,
, t
i Fn ( ti ) ,
,: 100 ,
,
, 10 , 3-5
3-5 100
F (ti )
F( ti )
22
22
30
30
10
10
32
32
15
15
40
40
20
20
10
42
42
:
,
: ( 1) 3-5 ( )
, 3-5
3-5
( 2) 3-5 , ,
, r= 0
( 3) m Y = AX+ B =
mX + B , m ( X , Y ) = ( 1, 0)
,: Y= m ( X 1) , X = 0 Y= - m , Y
- m ,
( 4) t0 Y = AX + B = m X
- B
+ B , B= - l nt 0 , t 0= e ,
Y ,
- B
B , t0= e t0
( 5) m
t0 m = 3. 65, t0 = 38. 5