25-2 Which of the following pairs of events are mutually exclusive?

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

A:
A:
A:
A:
A:

the odd numbers;

the even numbers;
the numbers less than 5;
the numbers above 100;
negative numbers;

B:
B:
B:
B:
B:

the number 5
the numbers greater than 10
all negative numbers
the numbers less than -200
odd numbers

d. A: the numbers above 100; B: the numbers less than -200

27-1 One card is drawn from a standard 52 card deck. In describing the
occurrence of two possible events, an Ace and a King, these two
events are said to be:
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)

independent
mutually exclusive
random variables
randomly independent.

(b) mutually exclusive.

34-1 Suppose a certain ophthalmic trait is associated with eye color.

300 randomly selected individuals are studied with results as follows:

EYE COLOR
TRAIT | Blue | Brown | Other | Total
____________________________________
Yes | 70 | 30 | 20 | 120
____________________________________
No | 20 | 110 | 50 | 180
____________________________________
Total | 90 | 140 | 70 | 300
A. What is the probability that a person has blue eyes?
B. What would you expect to be the value P(having the trait and
blue eyes) if eye color and trait status were independent?
C. Which of the following expressions describes the relationship between the events A = a person has brown eyes and
B = a person has blue eyes? (circle the correct answer)
i. independent
iii. simple
A. 90/300 = .3

ii. exhaustive
iv. mutually exclusive

B. (120/300)*(90/300) = .12
C. iv. mutually exhaustive

37-2 True or False? If False, correct it.

The law of large numbers makes it possible to predict long run relative frequencies but not
particular chance events.

A: True.

38-2 Define the complement to the event A.

The complement of A is the set of elements which do not belong to A.

40-1 Define the following term and give an example of its use.
Your example should not be one given in class or in a handout.
Chance Process
Definition: A process producing results or outcomes where the next
outcome cannot be specified in advance, but where the long
term chances of that outcome can be determined.
Example:

If we were to regard dropping a baited line into water

suspected of harboring flounder as a random process, we
would be taking the position that it's not possible to
accurately forecast if the next dropping of a line will
return a fish, but that if we repeatedly drop a properly
baited line it will result in a catch some percentage of
the time.

44-2 Which of the following is NOT a possible probability?

a.
b.
c.
d.

25/100
1.25
1
0

b. 1.25
0 <= Probability <= 1.0

71-1 A sample of 1000 persons screened for a certain disease is distributed according to
height and disease status resulting from a clinical exam as follows:

DISEASE STATUS

Tall
HEIGHT

Medium
Short

None
Mild
Moderate
Severe
Totals
|-------|---------|------------|----------|
| 122 |
78
|
139
|
61
| 400
|-------|---------|------------|----------|
|
74 |
51
|
90
|
35
| 250
|-------|---------|------------|----------|
| 104 |
71
|
121
|
54
| 350
|-------|---------|------------|----------|
300
200
350
150
1000

What would you estimate from the above table to be the probability
of being medium or short in height and having moderate or severe
disease status?
a. 600/1000 * 500/1000
b. 300/500
c. 300/1000

d. 300/600
e. 800/1000

c. 300/1000
(90 + 35 + 121 + 54)/1000 = 300/1000

533-2 Among twenty-five articles, nine are defective, six having only minor defects and
three having major defects. Determine the probability that an article selected at random
has major defects given that it has defects.

a.
b.
c.
d.

1/3
.25
.24
.08

a. 1/3
P[MD/D] = (3/25)/(9/25)
= 3/9
= 1/3

534-1 The checking accounts of Save-More Bank are categorized by age of account and
balance in account. We are going to select an account at random from this group of 2000
accounts.

Balance |
|
|
Age of Account
| $0 - $99 | $100-$499 | $500 or more
---------------------------------------------------------------

less than 3 years |

700
|
100
|
400
3 or more years
|
200
|
400
|
200
--------------------------------------------------------------i) Then P($500 or more0 - 3 years) =
a) 6/7

b) 2/3

c) 1/3

d) 1/5

e) none of these

ii) Then P[($0 - $99) or (3 years or more)] =

a) 9/10 b) 9/20 c) 3/4

d) 2/5

e) none of these

iii) Then P($100 or more) =

a) 1/4

b) 3/20 c) 11/20 d) 3/10 e) none of these

iv) What is the conditional probability that the account has a balance under $100, given
that it is less than 3 years old?
a) 7/9

b) 9/20 c) 3/4

d) 7/12 e) none of these

v) Are age of account and balance in account independent at Save-More Bank? Why or why
not?
vi) Suppose fourteen accounts are drawn at random from this bank. Let G be the event: "At
least five accounts are less than 3 years old". State G', the complement of G.
i) c) 1/3
P($500 or more0 - 3 years) = 400/1200 = 1/3
ii) c) 3/4
P(($0 - $99) or (3 years or more))
= P($0 - $99) + P(3 years or more) - P(($0 - $99) and (3 years))
= 900/2000 + 800/2000 - 200/2000
= 3/4
iii) c) 11/20
P($100 or more) = P($100 - $499) + P($500 or more)
= 500/2000 + 600/2000
= 11/20
iv) d) 7/12
P($0 - $990 - 3 years) = 700/1200
= 7/12

v) The two variables are not independent because

P(0 - 3 years$0 - $99) =/=
P(0 - 3 years$100 - $499) =/=
P(0 - 3 years$500 or more)

vi) G': "At least 10 accounts are three years old or older"
or
"less than five accounts are less than three years old"

536-1 The depositors at Save-More Bank are categorized by age and sex. We are going to
select an individual at random from this group of 2000 depositors.

Sex
Age
|
Male
|
Female
------------------------------------30 or less
|
800
|
600
31 or more
|
400
|
200
------------------------------------i) Then P(Female30 or less) =
a) 2/5 b) 3/4 c) 3/7 d) 3/10
ii) Then P[Male or (31 or more)] =
a) 1/5 b) 3/10 c) 1/2 d) 7/10
iii) Then P(Female) =
a) 3/10 b) 2/5 c) 3/5

d) 2/3

e) none of these
e) none of these
e) none of these

iv) What is the conditional probability that the depositor drawn is

30 or less, given that he is a male?
a) 2/3 b) 7/10 c) 4/7 d) 2/5 e) none of these
v) Are age of depositor and sex of depositor independent at Save-More
Bank? Why or why not?
i) c) 3/7

P(Female30 or less) = 600/1400 = 3/7

ii) d) 7/10
P[Male or (31 or more)] = P(Male) + P(31 or more)- P(Male and 31 or more)
= (1200/2000) + (600/2000) - (400/2000)
= 1400/2000
= 7/10
iii) b) 2/5
P(Female) = 800/2000 = 2/5
iv) a) 2/3
P(30 or lessMale) = 800/1200 = 2/3
v) They are not independent because
P(30 or lessMale) =/= P(30 or lessFemale)

538-1 The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears are playing their annual charity game. It is
third down, four yards to go for the Packers on their own 45 yard line. Based on previous
performances by the Packers, the next play will see one of the following occurrences, with
probabilities as indicated:

P
P
P
P
P
P
P

(pass incomplete)
= .25
(pass complete for first down)
= .15
(pass complete, no first down)
= .05
(interception)
= .03
(run for first down)
= .20
(busted play, quarterback sacked) = .25
(whistle is blown before play)
= .05

Find the following probabilities for the next play:

a) P (Packers score a first down)
b) P (pass play is tried)
c) P (Packers score a first downpass play is tried)
a) .15 + .20 = .35
b) .25 + .15 + .05 + .03 = .48
c) .15/.48 = .3125

539-1 400 adult males with angina pectoris are classified by age and weight as follows:

|
Weight in Pounds
|
Age (years) | 130-149 | 150-169 | 170-189 | >=190 | Total
----------------------------------------------------------30-39
|
10
|
20
|
20
| 40
| 90
40-49
|
10
|
15
|
50
| 70
| 145
50-59
|
5
|
15
|
50
| 40
| 110
60-69
|
5
|
10
|
15
| 25
| 55
----------------------------------------------------------|
30
|
60
|
135
| 175 | 400
Using the table, find for a randomly selected individual from this population the
probability that he or she:
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
h)

Is in the age interval 40-49

Is in the age interval 40-49 and weighs 170-189 lbs
Is in the age interval 40-49 or 60-69
Is in the age interval 40-49 or 60-69 and weighs 150-169 lbs
Is in the age interval 40-49 given a weight between 150-169 lbs
Weighs less than 170 lbs
Weighs less than 170 lbs and is less than 50 years
Weighs less than 170 lbs given that he is less than 50 years

a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)

.3625 = 145/400
.1250 = 50/400
.5000 = 145/400 + 55/400
.0625 = 15/400 + 10/400
.2500 = 15/60
.2250 = 30/400 + 60/400
.1375 = 10/400 + 10/400 + 20/400 + 15/400

h) .2340 = (10+10+20+15)/(145+90)

540-1 Each member of a sample of 3,750 women aged 30-39 was measured for unaided
distance vision in both right and left eyes. The results are presented in the following table:

|
LEFT EYE
|
| Highest Second Third Lowest | Total
|
grade
grade grade
grade |
--------------------------------------------------------Highest grade |
750
130
60
35
|
975
Second grade |
125
775
210
40
| 1150
Third grade
|
60
180
885
100
| 1225
Lowest grade |
20
40
90
250
|
400
--------------------------------------------------------Total
|
955
1125
1245
425
| 3750
RIGHT EYE

For a randomly selected person from the population sampled above, what is your estimate
of the probability that:
a) the left eye will fall into the 3rd grade of unaided distance vision
b) the left eye will have the highest grade given that the right eye has the lowest
grade
c) the right eye will have the highest grade and the left eye will have the lowest grade
a) 1245/3750 = .3320
b) 20/400 = .05
c) 35/3750 = .0093

541-1 The following two-way table shows the frequencies of occurrence of a hypothetical
exposure and disease in a group of 1000 people.

Exposure

Present
Absent

Disease
Present
Absent |
75
325
| 400
25
575
| 600
--------------------------100
900
1000

a. What is the probability of exposure in the group?

b. What is the joint probability of both exposure and disease being present in the
group?
c. Compute the probability of disease being present conditional on the presence of
exposure and conditional on the absence of exposure.
a. P(exposure) = 400/1000 = .40
b. P(exposure and disease) = 75/1000 = .075
c. P(diseaseexposure present) = 75/400 = .1875
P(diseaseexposure absent) = 25/600 = .0417

542-1 An epidemiologist feels that railroads have something to do with the development of a
new disease because the probability of a person's living within a mile of railroad tracks,
given that he has the disease, is .80. Do you agree with him? Why or why not?
You don't know whether P (living near tracks disease) is equal to P(living near tracks),
therefore you cannot evaluate whether the two events are independent or not.

545-1 Among twenty-five articles eight are defective, six having only minor defects and two
having major defects. Determine the probability that an article selected at random has
major defects given that it has defects.

(a) .08
(b) .25

(c) 1/3
(d) .24

(b) .25
P(MDD) = P(MD and D)/P(D)
= (2/25)/(8/25)
= .25

546-1 A dormitory on campus houses 200 students. 120 are male, 50 are upper division
students, and 40 are upper division male students. A student is selected at random.

The probability of selecting a lower division student, given the student is a female, is:
(a) 7/8
(b) 7/15
(c) 2/5

(d) 7/20
(e) 1/4

(a) 7/8
Given the above information, one can construct the following table:
Lower

Upper

Male
|
80
|
40
| 120
------------------------------------Female |
70
|
10
|
80
------------------------------------|
150
|
50
| 200
P(LowerFemale) = 70/80

549-1 A local trade union consists of plumbers and electricians.

Classified according to rank:
Apprentice
Journeyman
Master
------------------------------------

Plumbers
Electricians

25
|
20
|
30
-----------------------------------15
|
40
|
20
------------------------------------40
60
50

75
75

A member of the union is selected at random. Given that the person selected is a
plumber, the probability that he is a journeyman is:
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

1/2
1/3
4/15
2/15
none of these.

c. 4/15
20/75 = 4/15

550-1 In an effort to get at the source of an outbreak of Legionnaire's disease at the 197?
APHA convention, a team of medical detectives (i.e. epidemiologists) carried out a casecontrol study involving all 50 cases and a sample of 200 non-cases out of the 4000 persons
attending the convention. Among the results, it was found that 40% of the cases went to a
cocktail party given by a large drug company on the second night of the convention,
whereas 10% of the controls attended the same party. Which of the following statements is
appropriate for describing the 40% of cases who went to the party?
(C = case, P = attended party)
a. Pr(C|P) = .40
d. Pr(P'|C) = .40

b. Pr(P|C') = .40
e. none of these

c. Pr(C|P') = .40

e. none of these
Pr(PC) = .40 is the correct notation.

553-2 Suppose a loaded die has the following model:

Face
Probability

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

If this die is thrown and the top face shows an odd number,
a. What is the probability that the die shows a four?
b. What is the probability that the die shows a 1?
a. P(4|odd number) = 0

b. P(1|odd number) = P(1 and odd number)/P(odd number)

= .3/(.3 + .1 + .1)
= .6

558-1 There are two urns marked H and T. Urn H contains 2 red marbles and 1 blue marble.
Urn T contains 1 red and 2 blue marbles. A coin is to be tossed. If it lands heads, a marble
is drawn from Urn H. If it lands tails a marble is drawn from Urn T. Find the following
probabilities:
------------------|
H
|
T
|
----------------------------R
|
2/6 |
1/6 |
1/2
----------------------------B
|
1/6 |
2/6 |
1/2
----------------------------|
1/2 |
1/2 |
1
------------------------a. P(heads and red)
d. P(blue)

b. P(tails)
c. P(red)
e. P(heads|red)

(a) P(heads, red) = (1/2)*(2/3) = 1/3

(b) P(tails) = 1/2
(c) P(red) = ((1/2)*(2/3) + (1/2)*(1/3)) = 1/2
(d) P(blue) = ((1/2)*(1/3) + (1/2)*(2/3)) = 1/2
(e) P(heads|red) = P(heads intersect red)/P(red)
= (1/3)/(1/2) = (1/3)*(2/1) = 2/3

560-1 A sample of 2000 individuals is distributed according to eye color and the presence or
absence of a certain opthalmic trait as follows:

TRAIT

|
|

Blue

EYE COLOR
Brown

Other

|
|

---------------------------------------------Yes
| 400
270
130
|
800
No
| 200
650
350
| 1200
---------------------------------------------Total
| 600
920
480
| 2000
In a random selection of an individual from the study population, what is your estimate of
the probability that:
a. the person has blue eyes? _______________
b. the trait is present and the person has brown eyes? ____________
c. the person has neither brown nor blue eyes given that the trait is absent?
_______________
d. the person has neither brown nor blue eyes and the trait is present? _______________
e. the person does not have brown eyes? _______________
f. the person has blue eyes or has neither blue nor brown eyes? _____________
g. the person does not have the trait or does not have brown eyes?
_______________

a. 600/2000 = 3/10
b. 270/2000 = 27/200
c. 350/1200 = 7/24
d. 130/2000 = 13/200
e. (600 + 480)/2000 = 27/50
f. P(Blue union Other) = P(Blue) + P(Other) - P(Blue and Other)
= 600/2000 + 480/2000 - 0
= 1080/2000 = 27/50
g. P(No trait union (Blue or Other))
= 1200/2000 + 1080/2000 - 550/2000
= 1730/2000 = 173/200