37 1

2001 1

PTCA ( P AR T A: P HY SICA L T EST IN G)

V o l. 37 N o. 1
Ja n. 2001

: ( High-Technolog y) 70 ,
,

, , ,

,
,
, ;
, , ,

, ,
, ( )

( , 200437)
: O211. 9; O241. 1 : E: 1001-4012( 2001) 01-0039-05

, 2
, 7 28C
, , ,

,: (
) (
)
, , (
) , ,
, 100C ,
, ,

, ,
,

, ,
,
, ,
,

, , ,
, ,

,
, ,
, ,

,
,

,
, ,
,
,

39

,
,

P ( A|B ) B ,
A , P ( A|B ) A
P( A|B )= P ( A) P ( B|A ) = P ( B ) ,
A B ,

2
2. 1
,
,
1, P ( U ) = 1, U
, , P ( V ) = 0, V
, 0 1 ,
0 P ( A) 1, A
2. 2
( 1) P ,
1- P, P ( A ) = 1- P( A ) ,
A A ,
, P ( 1 6 ) = 1,
, 3 P ( 3 ) = 1 / 6, P (
1
5
3 ) = 1- =
, 3
6
6

,
1, , :
P ( A )= 1- P ( A )
( 2) A 3
, P ( A ) B 4
, P ( B ) , A B
, A B (
)
AB A B , A
+ B 3 4
P ( AB ) = P ( V ) = 0
( 1-1)
P( A+ B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B )
( 1-2)
,

,
1
1 1
P ( A+ B ) = P ( A )+ P ( B ) = 6+ 6 = 3
( 3) ,
: ,
3? , 3
1 /6, 3
1
1
1
1 /6, 3 =
6
6 36
, 3
40

P ( AB ) = P ( A|B ) P ( B ) = P ( A) P ( B ) ( 1-3)
A B ,

P( AB ) = P( A|B ) P ( B ) = P( B|A ) P ( A )
( 1-4)

, 52 , P= 1 /4, ,
, ,
1 /4, ,
( , )
,
, ,
1 /4, 12 / 51 B , A
, AB
,:
, ( 1-3)
1
1
1
P ( AB ) = P ( A ) P( B ) =

=
4
4
16
, ( 1-4)
P ( A|B ) = P ( B ) P ( A|B ) =

1
12
3
4 51 = 51

3
,
x y= f ( x )
,

3. 1

, , ,
1, 0, X
,
X=

1
0

( 1-5)

, , eb
, ,
X eb

,:

3. 2
:
( 1)

_ ,
,

e
,

( )
, ,
X

pk

1- p
1-1

, ,
X

pk

1 /6

1 /6

1 /6

1 /6

1 /6

1 /6

,
P ( X = x k ) = pk , k = 1, 2,
( 2) X
, x X ,
P ( X x ) = F ( x ) , X ,
F ( x ): X
x P ( X x ) ,
F ( x ) ,
P ( X x ) = F ( x ) , F ( x ) X
F ( x ) f ( x ) , F( x ) = f ( x ) ,

_ e ,
, 1-2 _
O , e
,_ (
) , e
, ,
,

f ( x ) X

4
4. 1
( Gauss Dist ribution) ,
,

, ,
es eb er
K IC W
% j
% ,
, ( )
,

( 1)
, 1-1
2

f (x ) =

1
ex p [- ( x - 2_ ) ]
2e
2 e

( 1-6)

( a)

( b)
1-2_ e

( 1-6) , _ e,
, N (_ ,e2 ) N (_ ,e)
, X N (_ ,e) X
41

_ e
, ( )
, ,
( 2) ( 1-6)

23. 76% , ,
t = 0. 71, h( 0. 71) = 0. 2389; t = 0. 72 ,
h( 0. 72) = 0. 2358, t= 0. 7143,
H( 0. 7143) = 0. 2376

f ( x ) , F ( x )
P ( X x ) = F( x ) =
x
1
(x - _ )2
ex
p
[] dx
2e2
2 e -

,
, ,
, ,
, ,
1-4

( 1-7)

F ( x ) = P ( X x ) x
X ,
1-3

1-4

,
: X x ,
( 1-8) t , x X
1-3

( 1-7) ,
_ e, , ,
t
x - _
t=
( 1-8)
e
( 1-7)
1 t
t2
F ( x ) = H( t ) =
exp
[
]dt
2
2 -

( 1-9)
, N ( 0, 1) ,
0, 1 ,
H( t ) -t , ,
,
N (_ ,e) , ( 1-8) t
, ,
eb _ = 850M Pa , e=
70M Pa, eb 800M Pa
P= ?
, ( 1-8) t =
800- 850
= - 0. 7143, ,
70
h( 0. 7143) = 0. 2376 , eb N
( 850, 70) M Pa , eb 800M Pa
42

; , x
,: K IC ,
, , K IC N (_ ,e) =
N ( 80, 9. 0) M Pa m , :
, 90% ( ) ,
K IC 60M Pa m?
: ( 1) ( 1-8) t= x - _ =
e
60- 80
= - 2. 2222
9
( 2) H( - 2. 2222) =
0. 0132
( 3) P ( X x ) = 1- P ( X x ) =
1- H( - 2. 2222) = 1- 0. 0132= 0. 9868= 98. 68%
, K IC 60M Pa m
98. 68% , 90%
,: es N (_ , e) = N
( 700, 75) M Pa; : 95% ,
es ?
: ( 1) es ( - t , t ) ,
0. 95, 1- 0. 95= 0. 05,
H( - t ) = 1- H( t ) = 0. 025,
t= 1. 96;
( 2) ( 1-8) , t=

x- _
x = _ te= 700
e

1. 96 75= 700 147= 553 847M Pa

es 95% ( 553
847) M Pa
4. 2
( Weibull Distribution)
,
,
( 1)
, ( ) ,

m < 1 ; m = 1
, ; m > 1
, m = 3 4 ,

, (
) ,
,
( ) ,
er ,
K th , er K th , ,
, ,
,

, , ( )
,
1951 1952 , ,
,
t ,
r , ,

f (t) =

m
m- 1
(t - r )
ex p [] ( t r)
t0 ( t - r)
t0

0 ( t < r)
( 1-10)
r ,
t0 ,
m ,

( 1-10) ,
r
( t ) ,
, t < r ,
t0 t , t0 , t
, ; t0 ,
, 63. 2% ,
m ,
,
,
, 1-5 r= 0, t0= 1 m

1-5 m

N - N 0 b- 1
N - N0 b
b
[
] exp [ - ( a
) ]
Na - N 0 Na - N 0
N - N0
( 1-11)
N 0 ,
N a ,

f (N) =

b ,
( 1-11) ( 1-10) ,
,
, ( ) ,

m m- 1
tm
f ( t ) = 0 t ex p [- 0 ]
t
t
b N b- 1
N
f (N ) =
[ ] exp [ - ( )b ]
Na Na
Na

( 1-12)

( 2) ( 1-10) ( 1-11)
,
( t - r)m
F( t ) = 1 - exp [ ]
t0
( 1-13)
N - N0 b
F( N ) = 1 - ex p [- ( N a - N 0 ) ]
, ( 1-12)
t
F( t ) = 1 - exp [ - ( )m ]
Z
( 1-14)
N b
F( N ) = 1 - ex p [- ( ) ]
Na
1 /m
Z= t0
,
( 1-13) ( 1-14)

43