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ACC Ltd
Cement | India
HOLD
Rs
Rs
%
Market data
Mkt capitalisation
Average daily vol
52-week H/L
Shares O/S
Free float
Promotor holding
Foreign holding
Face value
1,380
1,481
7
Unchanged
Rs bn
259.1
'000
338.1
Rs 1774.8 / 1301.5
mn
187.7
mn
93.3
%
50.3
%
13.2
Rs
10.0
1m
3.4
(0.2)
(3.7)
3m
(3.3)
(4.1)
(0.9)
Performance
1800
(Rs)
6m
(1.5)
(7.8)
(6.3)
(%)
1700
1yr
4.1
(4.5)
(8.6)
20
10
1600
0
1500
(10)
1400
1300
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
ACC (LHS)
Jul-15
(20)
Oct-15
Milind Raginwar
+91 22 4227 3362
milind.raginwar@sbicapsec.com
Ashutosh Adsare
+91 22 4227 3496
ashutosh.adsare@sbicapsec.com
C13
109,084
(2.0)
13.6
8,310
44.2
(35.6)
32.6
15.6
2.1
10.9
15.0
C14
114,811
5.2
12.3
8,031
42.7
(3.4)
33.7
17.1
2.4
10.0
13.6
C15e
124,543
8.5
11.0
6,680
35.5
(16.8)
40.6
18.5
2.1
8.3
11.1
C16e
136,857
9.9
13.3
9,570
50.9
43.3
28.3
14.0
2.1
11.4
15.0
C17e
153,564
12.2
14.3
12,064
64.2
26.1
22.5
11.6
2.1
14.0
18.2
ACC Ltd
Quarterly Financials
Y/E Dec (Rs mn)
3QC15
Net sales
27,898
28,145
30,153
Cost of goods
3,951
4,119
5,029
4,130
1,660
1,915
2,003
2,010
6,183
6,253
6,101
5,194
12,719
12,072
13,685
12,567
3,385
3,786
12.1
13.5
1,607
1,393
EBIT
1,778
2,392
Other Expenses
EBITDAM fell due continued cost inflation.
Logistics and raw material costs contributed to
higher cost
EBITDA
EBITDAM (%)
EBITM (%)
(0.9)
(10.6)
(7.5)
3,335
27,522
1.5
3,620
11.1
(6.5)
13.2
1,657
(25.7)
1.4
1,690
1,679
5.9
1,930
Other income
(69)
446
235
215
Interest expenses
150
115
143
156
1,559
2,723
389
674
(7.9)
Extraordinary/Exceptional
Profit before tax
Tax expense
Effective tax rate (%)
PAT
(42.8)
1,771
(12.0)
1,989
456
(21.6)
517
25
25
1,170
2,049
(42.9)
1,314
26
(10.9)
1,472
26
(20.5)
1,170
2,049
(42.9)
1,314
(10.9)
1,472
(20.5)
Minority Interest
Reported net profit
Non-recurring items
(249)
1,419
2,049
NPM (%)
5.1
7.3
EPS (Rs)
7.5
10.9
(30.8)
1,314
8.0
1,472
4.4
(30.8)
(3.6)
5.3
7.0
8.0
7.8
(3.6)
Realization/t (LHS)
Volume (RHS)
12.1 14
310
451
8.9
515
711
11.1
544
630
449
564
12.1
EBITDA/t (LHS)
3QC15
2QC15
1QC15
4QC14
3QC14
2QC14
1QC14
4QC13
2QC13
1QC13
3QC15
2QC15
1QC15
4QC14
3QC14
2QC14
1QC14
4QC13
3QC13
3,800
2QC13
407
300
2
11.1
3QC13
15.9
14.0 14.713.5
(Rs/t)
600
708
(MT)
5.8
4,618
5.6
696
6.2
4,100
1QC13
21
16.9 17.2
4,547
4,626
5.6 5.8
4,706
5.9
4,572
4,393
4,400
4,440
4,700
4,385
5.5
4,442
6.1
4,533
6.4
(Rs/t)
900
8
6.5 6.4
4,955
5,000
(%)
Margin (RHS)
milind.raginwar@sbicapsec.com | ashutosh.adsare@sbicapsec.com
ACC Ltd
Key assumption
C15e
Volume (mn tonnes)
Realisation (Rs/tonne)
Revised
C16e
C17e
Old
C16e
C15e
C17e
Change (%)
C15e C16e C17e
24.6
26.1
28.4
24.6
26.1
28.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
4741.1
4920.1
5010.0
4741.1
4920.1
5010.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1070.5
1062.1
1073.7
1070.5
1062.1
1073.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
1207.0
1117.8
1117.8
1207.0
1117.8
1117.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
Valuations
Equity Share Capital (Rs mn)
FV (Rs)
No of equtiy shares (mn)
CMP (Rs)
C15e
C16e
C17e
1,880
1,880
1,880
10
10
10
187.95
187.95
187.95
1,380
1,380
1,380
259,371
259,371
259,371
Net Debt
(13,494)
(8,947)
(13,812)
EV
245,877
250,424
245,559
30.239
32.689
32.689
EV/tonne (US $)
135.5
127.7
125.2
EV/tonne (Rs)
Source: SSLe
8,131
7,661
7,512
Total Capacity
EV/Tonne Chart
2,400
1,200
600
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
Feb-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
(Rs)
1,800
Price (Rs)
100x
120x
140x
160x
$180
milind.raginwar@sbicapsec.com | ashutosh.adsare@sbicapsec.com
ACC Ltd
Financials
Income Statement
Y/E Dec (Rsmn)
C13
C14
C15e
C16e
C17e
Net sales
109,084
114,811
124,543
136,857
153,564
growth (%)
(2.0)
5.2
8.5
9.9
12.2
Operating expenses
(95,244) (102,151) (113,049) (121,105) (134,090)
EBITDA
15,038
14,262
14,019
18,502
22,404
growth (%)
(28.4)
(5.2)
(1.7)
32.0
21.1
Depreciation &amortisation
(5,740)
(5,576)
(6,532)
(7,340)
(7,780)
EBIT
12,306
11,620
9,612
13,562
17,169
Other income
3,007
2,933
2,125
2,400
2,545
Interest paid
(517)
(828)
(462)
(629)
(643)
Extraordinary/Exceptional items
PBT
11,790
11,352
9,150
12,933
16,527
Tax
(3,479)
(2,761)
(2,471)
(3,363)
(4,462)
Effective tax rate (%)
(29.5)
(24.3)
(27.0)
(26.0)
(27.0)
Net profit
8,310
8,591
6,680
9,570
12,064
Minority interest
0
0
0
0
0
Reported Net profit
10,958
11,683
6,680
9,570
12,064
Non-recurring items
0
560
0
0
0
Adjusted Net profit
8,310
8,031
6,680
9,570
12,064
growth (%)
(35.6)
(3.4)
(16.8)
43.3
26.1
Key Financials ratios
Y/E Dec (Rsmn)
C13
Profitability and return ratios (%)
EBITDAM
13.6
EBITM
11.2
NPM
7.6
RoE
10.9
RoCE
15.0
RoIC
16.5
C14
C15e
C16e
C17e
12.3
10.0
7.0
10.0
13.6
14.0
11.0
7.6
5.4
8.3
11.1
11.0
13.3
9.7
7.0
11.4
15.0
13.4
14.3
11.0
7.9
14.0
18.2
15.9
187.9
44.2
44.2
74.8
416.3
30.0
187.9
42.7
42.7
72.4
438.2
34.0
187.9
35.5
35.5
70.3
437.5
31.0
187.9
50.9
50.9
90.0
452.2
31.0
187.9
64.2
64.2
105.6
480.1
31.0
32.6
3.5
15.6
2.1
33.7
3.3
17.1
2.1
40.6
3.3
18.5
2.1
28.3
3.2
14.0
1.9
22.5
3.0
11.6
1.7
(0.3)
24
(0.2)
25
(0.2)
27
(0.1)
28
(0.2)
29
7.6
0.9
1.6
10.9
7.0
0.9
1.5
10.0
5.4
1.0
1.6
8.3
7.0
1.0
1.6
11.4
7.9
1.1
1.6
14.0
milind.raginwar@sbicapsec.com | ashutosh.adsare@sbicapsec.com
Balance Sheet
Y/E Dec (Rsmn)
Cash & Bank balances
Other Current assets
Investments
C14
3,043
45,689
2,851
C15e
3,490
51,368
2,851
C16e
3,172
53,121
2,851
C17e
3,607
64,277
2,851
62,636
74,539
600
591
0
0
120,936 126,713
73,101
850
0
131,660
76,671
850
0
136,665
73,252
1,050
0
145,037
39,002
0
5,356
44,357
41,707
2,374
5,356
49,436
43,723
2,604
5,356
51,683
46,772
2,674
5,356
54,802
Share capital
Reserves & surplus
Shareholders' funds
Minority interest
Total equity & liabilities
1,880
1,880
76,368
80,476
78,248
82,355
0
0
120,935 126,713
1,880
80,344
82,224
0
131,660
1,880
83,103
84,982
0
136,665
1,880
88,356
90,235
0
145,037
C13
11,790
5,407
(4,592)
(5,916)
0
6,688
C14
11,352
4,567
1,140
(4,072)
0
12,987
C15e
9,150
6,532
(3,779)
(2,279)
0
9,624
C16e
12,933
7,340
(3,937)
(3,162)
0
13,174
C17e
16,527
7,780
(3,818)
(4,251)
0
16,237
Capital expenditure
Chg in investments
Other investing activities
Investing CF
FCF
(6,891) (16,462)
3,595
6,210
0
0
(3,295) (10,252)
3,393
2,735
(5,353)
500
0
(4,853)
4,771
(10,910)
4,000
0
(6,910)
6,264
(4,560)
(4,500)
0
(9,060)
7,177
Equity raised/(repaid)
Debt raised/(repaid)
Dividend (incl. tax)
Other financing activities
Financing CF
(1)
(1,280)
(6,590)
2,728
(5,143)
0
(350)
(7,468)
3,092
(4,727)
0
2,374
(6,697)
0
(4,323)
0
230
(6,812)
0
(6,582)
0
70
(6,812)
0
(6,742)
(1,750)
5,034
(1,991)
3,043
447
3,490
(318)
3,172
435
3,607
C13
5,034
50,956
1,710
37,265
350
5,073
42,688
ACC Ltd
Recommendation History
Date
BUY
2000
HOLD
Stock Price
SELL
Target Price
1800
(Rs)
1600
1400
1200
800
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
1000
Stock Price
TP
Rec.
1,224
1,223
HOLD
7-May-13
26-Jul-13
1,212
1,110
HOLD
29-Oct-13
1,150
1,112
HOLD
7-Feb-14
1,046
1,125
HOLD
25-Apr-14
1,310
1,263
HOLD
24-Jul-14
1,463
1,385
HOLD
31-Oct-14
1,495
1,401
HOLD
3-Feb-15
1,509
1,432
HOLD
15-Apr-15
1,614
1,485
HOLD
20-Jul-15
1,456
1,442
HOLD
21-Oct-15
1,380
1,481
HOLD
Qualification
Designation
Milind Raginwar
Analyst
Ashutosh Adsare
Associate
milind.raginwar@sbicapsec.com | ashutosh.adsare@sbicapsec.com
ACC Ltd
Other Disclosures
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subsidiary of SBI Capital Markets Limited (SBICAP), which is engaged into investment banking, project advisory and financial services activities and is registered with the
Securities and Exchange Board of India as a Category I Merchant Banker. SBICAP is a wholly owned subsidiary of State Bank of India. Hence, State Bank of India and all its
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other in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company discussed
herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related
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1.
2.
3.
4.
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Can be expected that some of the estimates on which these were based, will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results, and such variances may increase
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milind.raginwar@sbicapsec.com | ashutosh.adsare@sbicapsec.com